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[SPEAKER_00]: First bet offer today. [SPEAKER_00]: Shit! [SPEAKER_00]: Shit! [SPEAKER_01]: We are back on the just baseball program on the just baseball show to talk about division races. [SPEAKER_01]: We've got five divisions that are kind of up in the air. [SPEAKER_01]: We're not going to talk about the AL Central.
[SPEAKER_01]: Congratulations to the Tigers on August fourth, but we're going to talk about the other five divisions and what's going on at the top followed by a brief check in on the award races that are getting tight. [SPEAKER_01]: Those lines are brought to us by BedMGM. [SPEAKER_01]: Who's the show brought to you by? [SPEAKER_01]: Also them, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The sportsbook born in Vegas.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And if your first pick loses on badmgm, you'll get whatever you put on it up to fifteen hundred back in bonus bets if that wager loses. [SPEAKER_00]: But remember gambling problem call or text one eight hundred gambler must be twenty-one years or older term ticketitions apply. [SPEAKER_00]: Fifty games left are the MLB season. [SPEAKER_00]: Fifty. [SPEAKER_00]: Can you believe it? [SPEAKER_01]: Wow, no, because I will tell you being in it every day.
[SPEAKER_01]: It feels like there are a hundred to go and there's five to go at any moment. [SPEAKER_01]: I couldn't tell you that we were, you know, barreling towards Tuesday, August, fifth right now. [SPEAKER_01]: But that's apparently where we are. [SPEAKER_01]: And I just have to, I have to believe you. [SPEAKER_01]: Jeff Nelson who I'll work with on Marlon's radio sometimes. [SPEAKER_01]: I think does great work is also on the Yankee telecast for yes.
[SPEAKER_01]: He said there are two days. [SPEAKER_01]: There's Mondays and there's Sundays and he night game is a Monday and any day game is a Sunday and I'm totally with him. [SPEAKER_00]: of existence. [SPEAKER_00]: For me, you know, at the same time, it feels like the season is almost over and it also feels like it just started.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like this weird feeling where I kind of share the same thing as you where it feels like we have a lot left, but it also feels like we have none left. [SPEAKER_00]: I know, but it is to quantify it, fifty games left that feels like it's almost done, but at the same time, we still have two months to go. [SPEAKER_01]: It's pretty home stretchy.
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say fifty games feels pretty darn home stretchy and it's exciting to see all these races heating up and all of a sudden everybody's looking at the wild card. [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like this is the time where you can start to look at the wild card standings every day. [SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely. [SPEAKER_00]: You ready to talk racist? [SPEAKER_01]: Reading a moment before that.
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to shout out the immediate love that we got on the just baseball day at Lone Depot Park. [SPEAKER_01]: That'll be on Saturday, August, twenty-third. [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's Saturday, August, twenty-third against the Toronto Blue Jays. [SPEAKER_01]: It's that Saturday game. [SPEAKER_01]: Fort ten first pitch.
[SPEAKER_01]: with so cool to see that initial reaction on social media and get your tickets as soon as possible because not only does that guarantee you a spot in the just baseball section where you can sit with a couple of members of the just baseball staff and also you know get merch every ticket comes with just baseball merch first fifty purchasers get a marlins hat as well complimentary of the team but the earlier you buy the higher likelihood you are selected for for on field batting practice passes
[SPEAKER_01]: four ballpark tours and eight pregame booth visits. [SPEAKER_01]: So like we have so many of these added pieces here. [SPEAKER_01]: Everybody gets something far beyond what their ticket is initially with the chance for a hell of a lot more. [SPEAKER_01]: So I would lock in your spot as soon as you possibly can. [SPEAKER_01]: That link is in our episode description.
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm so excited to see all you guys out here at Laundee, Pope Park in Miami for Blue Jay's Marlins at the end of August. [SPEAKER_00]: I'll be there. [SPEAKER_00]: Arms going to be there. [SPEAKER_00]: You're going to be there. [SPEAKER_00]: A bunch of just baseball stuff is going to be there as well. [SPEAKER_00]: And you probably thought, I get tickets, merch, a Marlins hat and a potential to be in the stadium tours.
[SPEAKER_00]: The pregame TV radio booth visits on field batting practice. [SPEAKER_00]: You also get an homage gift card. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, which would be great. [SPEAKER_00]: Some of the best baseball merch out there. [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm just giving us a couple of Marlins bundles too. [SPEAKER_01]: I would assume some deal would be in those bundles. [SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely no brainer. [SPEAKER_00]: Go get your tickets.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you live in the Miami area, or if you'll be in Florida, all we'd love to have you again, August, twenty-third, BlueJay's versus Marlins. [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a blast. [SPEAKER_00]: So you can find the link to get those tickets in the episode description. [SPEAKER_00]: Remember, don't just buy them right on any ticket marketplace. [SPEAKER_00]: Get them through the link so you can get all of these different giveaways. [SPEAKER_00]: Make sure you're in the same section.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, link is in the episode description. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's jump into the divisional races now and let's start with two of the best teams in all the baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: We're actually going to go NL Central first and you say, what do you mean? [SPEAKER_01]: Why aren't you working geographically east to west?
[SPEAKER_01]: Nope. [SPEAKER_01]: We're talking about the sixty seven and forty four Milwaukee Brewers with one three and a row seven of the last ten and the Chicago Cubs who are two games back at them at sixty five and forty six. [SPEAKER_01]: Those are the two best records in the national league. [SPEAKER_01]: This is a heavyweight fight atop this division.
[SPEAKER_01]: really what I want to do is kind of pose the two teams to you and you tell me in your quick synopsis the path to a division title for each of them. [SPEAKER_01]: Okay. [SPEAKER_01]: So go. [SPEAKER_00]: So the brewers are playing better baseball than the cubs right now. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: I think even the biggest cubs fans would say that as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the standings right now, the brewers are two games up.
[SPEAKER_00]: If we look at run differential, it's basically the same. [SPEAKER_00]: The cubs have a plus one fifteen. [SPEAKER_00]: The brewers are at plus one nineteen. [SPEAKER_00]: And when two teams are so close, I think looking at the strength of schedule is important. [SPEAKER_00]: The Chicago Cubs of their remaining opponents, they have an average winning percentage of just four eighty two out of thirty teams. [SPEAKER_00]: That is the third easiest of all thirty teams.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the brewers on the other side have the seventh [SPEAKER_00]: The hardest schedule remaining at five, ten that's the average winning percentage of teams that are about to face for the brewers are about to face a schedule of mostly above five hundred teams while the cubs are going to face a lot of teams that are below five hundred, which makes me start to lean towards the cubs. [SPEAKER_00]: The brewers also are playing their best baseball right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: are the cubs going to start playing their best baseball here coming up soon. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think the cubs are going to take a late rally. [SPEAKER_00]: I agree with the market making the cubs still the favorite in this division. [SPEAKER_00]: I think showed us pitching better. [SPEAKER_00]: Matthew Boyd has been excellent. [SPEAKER_00]: Kate Horton has really taken the lead here. [SPEAKER_00]: And getting in Mike Soroka, I think is going really help.
[SPEAKER_00]: As long as this Cubs bullpen can maintain what they have done over the season so far, that lineup can still carry them. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna go with the Cubs, but it's mostly based on the schedule in front of them. [SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, if the Brewers had a really easy schedule, I'd probably go with them because these are two of the best teams. [SPEAKER_00]: Not only in the National League, but just in all of Major League Baseball.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I hear you on that argument. [SPEAKER_01]: My counter argument to the Cubs argument would be the Brewers have a competitive advantage on the Hill every single night. [SPEAKER_01]: And that just changed over the last couple of days. [SPEAKER_01]: Jacob is asking on the internet list with a tibia bruise, right? [SPEAKER_01]: It's a bruise tibia. [SPEAKER_01]: I assume it really, really hurts. [SPEAKER_01]: to be a contusion.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so like a deep bruise on that, but they recall Logan Henderson. [SPEAKER_01]: It was throwing out of his mind for his first five major league start. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like they skip too much of a beat. [SPEAKER_01]: They certainly skip a beat, but it's not like you're skipping four going from his arouse to Logan Henderson. [SPEAKER_01]: I just look at how they match up on the hill every single night with Freddie Paraltsa.
[SPEAKER_01]: Can Tanas throwing to a three five Woodruff has been pitching out of his mind. [SPEAKER_01]: Henderson five starts at a one eight and prester. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm excited to see what he does on Monday. [SPEAKER_01]: We're recording before this, but he's been throwing out of his mind as well. [SPEAKER_01]: For me, that rotation is just objectively better than what the cubs are running out. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to refute that because I frickin' love the Milwaukee verse.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would not be surprised to see them win the division. [SPEAKER_00]: The only again counterpoint that I will give. [SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned Ms. [SPEAKER_00]: Rowski going on the I.L. [SPEAKER_00]: Jackson, choreo on the I.L. [SPEAKER_00]: as well. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a totally not going to help. [SPEAKER_00]: And at the deadline, who added more? [SPEAKER_00]: Right, the cubs bring in really cashier to this offense. [SPEAKER_00]: They bring in Mike Soroka.
[SPEAKER_00]: the birds didn't really bring in anybody. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think a late surge due to the fact that the schedule is easier. [SPEAKER_00]: Some of the birds' best players are going on the I.L. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the cubs will narrowly edge them out. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, I'd say in your wrong, this is not a hell I want to die on. [SPEAKER_00]: This is going to be an incredible race for the rest of the season.
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you know how severe the hamstring train was for Torio? [SPEAKER_00]: Not exactly. [SPEAKER_00]: I just know we hit the IL. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I've always been bad with trying to gauge injuries, especially early. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you have a better idea. [SPEAKER_01]: Pat Murphy said month plus. [SPEAKER_01]: I saw that was reported, which is a real blow.
[SPEAKER_01]: I knew we hit the I.O with a hamstring strain, but those vary from, oh, you got the minimum ten days if it's a slight tweak to, oh, you might be out of month and a half. [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm hoping it's not a month and a half, but it sounds like it could be a month plus, which with that, are you still sticking with the birth? [SPEAKER_01]: No, I think it's a toss-up. [SPEAKER_01]: I was just presenting the counter argument.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that hot baseball stems from starting pitching. [SPEAKER_01]: So I will side with the team with the better starting pitching every night. [SPEAKER_01]: And that's Milwaukee. [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I'm sticking with the Brewers. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't feel great about it, but to your point, we've got the two best teams in the national league and two of the best in baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's go.
[SPEAKER_01]: NL West. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about the Dodger Podgerate rival reheating up right now. [SPEAKER_01]: And baseball is so damn good when the Dodgers and the Podgeras are slugging it out right now. [SPEAKER_01]: San Francisco was in it at an even five hundred and fifty six and fifty six. [SPEAKER_01]: They're nine back. [SPEAKER_01]: But the Dodgers are at sixty five and forty seven. [SPEAKER_01]: And the San Diego Podgeras are at sixty two and fifty three back in the division.
[SPEAKER_01]: They've won seven other last ten. [SPEAKER_01]: The stories about Zander Bogart's job being on the floor, seeing Mason Miller walk in was like he was so much bigger than I was anticipating him to be. [SPEAKER_01]: That's the kind of thing that makes me think the podgerays have a real shot at this. [SPEAKER_01]: They really did put together a super pen. [SPEAKER_01]: And I know we were talking about the Yankees putting together an amazing bullpen that crumbled immediately.
[SPEAKER_01]: San Diego looked pretty damn dominant this weekend again, St. [SPEAKER_01]: Louis. [SPEAKER_00]: They were talking about it in the discord, especially after we recorded Monday show that Peter, you got to stop glazing the Padre so hard. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna continue to do so. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they have an outside shot of winning this division. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the odds right now on Betta, MGM, aren't playing that they don't.
[SPEAKER_00]: right you make they make the Dodgers over minus a thousand favorites which basically means there's like a ninety five percent chance close to ninety percent that the Dodgers are going to win this division and right now it does seem like downbacks are certainly not going to catch them and the giants lately i mean [SPEAKER_00]: We talk about the red socks and what they've done since the devil's trade. [SPEAKER_00]: The giants have gone the complete opposite direction.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not putting them in that bucket either. [SPEAKER_00]: It really is Dodgers versus Padre's. [SPEAKER_00]: I just can't get over how good this Padre's bullpen is. [SPEAKER_00]: And Michael King is supposed to come back earlier than expected. [SPEAKER_00]: He should be back here in the next week. [SPEAKER_00]: He's finishing up. [SPEAKER_00]: I think his third rehab outing where he looked great as well. [SPEAKER_00]: So that's another boost for the rotation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan sees like we know. [SPEAKER_00]: Till and cease, when he gets hot, can be one of the best pictures of Major League Baseball, the problem with Till and cease and why he's not consistently in the top ten or even the top fifteen is because when he's cold, he's in the mid fours when it comes to ERA. [SPEAKER_00]: So that start against the Cardinals was very, very [SPEAKER_00]: reassuring for us Padre's believers.
[SPEAKER_00]: Darvish has looked good as well, and the Veda has been solid. [SPEAKER_00]: So their rotation went from kind of questionable to pretty damn good. [SPEAKER_00]: And all they need is four to five innings before that bullpen comes in. [SPEAKER_00]: When you have Loriano, when you have Rhino her now in this line up with Freddie for mean, [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you could say the daughters of this are the best team in baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the potters of the second best team in baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: I really do. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they are that good. [SPEAKER_00]: And when I look at strength of schedule, Dodgers and dead last, which means they have the easiest schedule remaining. [SPEAKER_00]: You know who's second the last? [SPEAKER_00]: San Diego potteries, thirty-a-th and twenty-ninth. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's going to be a race to the end.
[SPEAKER_00]: You probably assume both teams play at a similar level to rest of the way and because the Dodgers have a three-game lead right now, I will give it to them. [SPEAKER_00]: But what I will say is I think the plus seven hundred that they're offering you right now on Bad MGM, I think they're leaving too much meat on the bone. [SPEAKER_01]: It would seem like it and I don't have, you know, any particular lens on that front.
[SPEAKER_01]: But San Diego, for me, you use the word solid when it came to Poveta. [SPEAKER_01]: And that's what I'm just begging for from people. [SPEAKER_01]: And you know, as soon as King comes off the I.L. [SPEAKER_01]: That's what he's going to be at worst. [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be solid. [SPEAKER_01]: The big X factor for me is Nestor Cortes right now, because King just threw his first rehab star and he struggled. [SPEAKER_01]: He struggled in this first rehab.
[SPEAKER_01]: So it'll probably be two more or so. [SPEAKER_00]: So I was wrong about that. [SPEAKER_00]: He's a little bit farther off than that. [SPEAKER_01]: He's a little bit further off, but I mean, not too much. [SPEAKER_01]: He just started rehab addicts. [SPEAKER_01]: Yes. [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, like, hey, we're probably looking at two, three weeks at this point, which is totally fine. [SPEAKER_01]: You get him back for the home stretch in the month of September.
[SPEAKER_01]: The word solid, if it correlates to what Nester Cortez does for the final two months, the season, San Diego is in a really good spot to win this season. [SPEAKER_00]: They sent down Randy Vasquez, which is interesting because he's given them good innings this year, but they must. [SPEAKER_01]: But like have they been good innings? [SPEAKER_01]: For me, they've been terrifying. [SPEAKER_00]: like the results have been good, but watching with our eyes, I couldn't agree with you.
[SPEAKER_01]: Dude, I mean, we are egg shells, hot coals, whatever you're walking on. [SPEAKER_01]: That's the Randy Vasquez experience right now. [SPEAKER_01]: So I will take the idea of Nester Cortez possibly being solid over Randy Vasquez being a willenda brother. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'll side with you there. [SPEAKER_00]: Another thing about the Dodgers, like this is not the perfect team everybody thought they would be.
[SPEAKER_00]: And by everybody, I mean, also us, I was looking back at our wind total projections from the beginning of the year when Arm and I did it. [SPEAKER_00]: And both of us took, I think the Dodgers over a hundred and three and a half wins. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a swing and a miss for the both of us. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's in large part because mooky bats has simply not been good this year. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not even talking about per his expectations. [SPEAKER_00]: He's fallen below.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's fallen below average hitters in majorly baseball this season. [SPEAKER_00]: The Dodgers rotation also with Otani. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, exiting the mound a few starts ago. [SPEAKER_00]: That certainly doesn't help. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, Yamamoto is still a dog. [SPEAKER_00]: They still have guys in the rotation. [SPEAKER_00]: But they didn't really do a lot of the deadline either while the podger is went all in. [SPEAKER_00]: Like the podger's can catch this team.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because again, when you build a bullpen like that and you fill in your holes offensively while the Dodgers didn't really do so, you probably still say, well, the Dodgers just [SPEAKER_00]: have to be the best team and maybe you're right, but I'm not sold on it. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the podgers could go toe to toe with this team and considering their their the strength of schedules is basically the same.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the podgers from here on out are going to play a better baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm flipping it on its head, give me the Padres to win the National League West. [SPEAKER_01]: Wow, and come back from this three-game deficit that it stands at right now entering play on August fourth. [SPEAKER_01]: For me, the Dodgers, it wasn't a flashy way to cover up holes, but they did cover up two holes.
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought they needed an extra bench bat, and they got that in Alex call, and then I thought they needed an extra arm, and they got that in Brock Stewart as well. [SPEAKER_01]: By the way, Alexis D.S. [SPEAKER_01]: has just happened. [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so I just I look at the Dodgers and I say, okay, you had minimal flaws, but they were there and you did some patch work.
[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't as sexy a patch work is getting Mason Miller and giving up the number three prospect in baseball or a top ten prospect in baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: For me, it was more cost effective patch work without giving up any of your top fifteen twenty prospects. [SPEAKER_00]: No, yeah, I understand why they didn't make a lot of moves. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like they have a lot of holes, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The podgeries had more holes objectively.
[SPEAKER_00]: They had a whole left field. [SPEAKER_01]: They had a hole in the field every single one in a loud way, a hundred percent. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you think about it, go through the Dodgers rotation right now. [SPEAKER_00]: Yamamoto, glass now, smell. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a very good trio.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you have Michael King, Dylan Seas, and you, Darvish, pitching at, you know, the best of their abilities, you'd still take the Dodgers, but the Dodgers can perform like all three of those arms. [SPEAKER_00]: I'll take the Dodgers bullpen and with mooky bets and struggles, the Dodgers offense is right there.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, it's gonna take a little extra push to end up winning this division because they are three back, but [SPEAKER_00]: I just, I'm drinkin' the potterice coolate. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're as good as the Dodgers and I think they're gonna win the world series. [SPEAKER_01]: I'll tell you to pump the brakes a little bit, but I'm not far off of where you're at there. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the National League East.
[SPEAKER_01]: All three divisions are tight in the National League right now. [SPEAKER_01]: And this for me is a true heavyweight fight. [SPEAKER_01]: And this is a half game separating the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. [SPEAKER_01]: Both sides are five and five in their last ten. [SPEAKER_01]: Philly is sixty three in forty eight. [SPEAKER_01]: New York is sixty three in forty nine. [SPEAKER_01]: So same exact win total.
[SPEAKER_01]: The Mets have one more loss than the Philadelphia Phillies to this point. [SPEAKER_01]: I will tell you, after the deadline, I thought they plugged the two holes that they needed. [SPEAKER_01]: They needed the center field help Harrison Bader, R.M. [SPEAKER_01]: at a great point on the Monday show.
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to handle the short side of the platoon with Martian Center, and he might just end up taking over bulk reps in center field for Mars because he's better than Mars this year. [SPEAKER_01]: And Yohan Daran is their postseason eligible closer. [SPEAKER_01]: He get Jose Alvarado back for the home stretch to try and lock up the division. [SPEAKER_01]: He's not eligible for postseason play.
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of a sudden, that back end of the bullpen becomes Daran, Alvarado, Kirkering, and Strom. [SPEAKER_01]: You've seen the way Christopher Sanchez is throwing the baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: Wheeler, I don't need any additional explanation. [SPEAKER_01]: This team for me is near flawless, and I feel like you'll see that over the final two months. [SPEAKER_01]: They're gonna pull away and win this division.
[SPEAKER_01]: I think not handedly, but I think it might be more than four games. [SPEAKER_00]: The odds of growth you. [SPEAKER_00]: Bet MGM gives them about a sixty percent chance of winning the division. [SPEAKER_00]: Those implied odds would be around minus one fifty in the Metz, you know, they're in the thirty eight percent range. [SPEAKER_00]: And I understand why the market is there. [SPEAKER_00]: I think you laid out all the reasons why the fillies are so excellent.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Mets are also a fantastic baseball team. [SPEAKER_00]: What they did at the deadline, bringing in Tyler Rogers, bringing in Ryan Hulls, bringing in Gregory Soto to that bullpen.
[SPEAKER_00]: And in a time where they're starting pitching is starting to falter a little bit, guaranteeing those innings at the end of the game are huge, because of course also you have Edwin Diaz, you have Reed Garrett, you have plenty of other bullpen arms, so they have really solidified one of the best bullpen's in baseball to hedge some of those starting pitching concerns.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think when both of us look at each team, [SPEAKER_00]: Neither of us are concerned about the Met's recent offensive woes. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the only concern across any of the teams would be the Met's starting rotation. [SPEAKER_00]: And because one team has a little bit of a concern, and the Met's have a really tough schedule in front of them.
[SPEAKER_00]: Sixth hardest strength of schedule remaining, they only play [SPEAKER_00]: Two teams with a record below five hundred the rest of this season. [SPEAKER_00]: The Nationals for six and the Braves for six. [SPEAKER_00]: What are those two teams have in common? [SPEAKER_00]: Divisional games. [SPEAKER_00]: The Nationals are playing horrific baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: The Met should win five of those six games. [SPEAKER_00]: But the Braves have had the Met's number historically.
[SPEAKER_00]: So even though the Braves are not playing good baseball and they seem just completely out of it, you know they're going to want to spoil the Met's time. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, the Braves are still going to play the Phillies and the Met's and the Phillies will play each other.
[SPEAKER_00]: If I just have slight concerns about one team and that team has a much harder strength of schedule remaining, considering the Phillies rank eight teeth, the average winning percentage of their opponents moving forward is just for ninety seven. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to give it to the Phillies. [SPEAKER_00]: They have the half game lead. [SPEAKER_00]: They have the much easier strength of schedule. [SPEAKER_00]: And again, we go back to the starting pitching argument.
[SPEAKER_00]: Zach Wheeler [SPEAKER_00]: He says, good is anybody alive. [SPEAKER_00]: And so it's Christopher Sanchez and you have Ranger Swars as well. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Phillies take it. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, the Mets, we talk about strength of schedule. [SPEAKER_00]: They could be anybody on any given day. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, that could be a mute point. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the Mets are still one of the best teams in baseball, but the Phillies are just an inch better.
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like they'll win the division by like a game and a half. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm ninety five percent sure it's moot point instead of mute point, but I'm not a hundred percent sure so I'm gonna Google that right now. [SPEAKER_00]: Let's just pretend I got it correctly. [SPEAKER_01]: No doubt and you absolutely Peter said moot point. [SPEAKER_01]: That's no doubt what you said and we're moving on. [SPEAKER_01]: Perfect job Peter. [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, man.
[SPEAKER_01]: I my gut says Philly. [SPEAKER_01]: They also both see the fight and fish for six more. [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah, they do home and home with both of us remaining. [SPEAKER_00]: That's just six auto losses for each. [SPEAKER_00]: We're still the same point. [SPEAKER_01]: Right. [SPEAKER_01]: So the Marlins winning the division is still absolutely in the cards and I thought we had to get aboard the fish fam. [SPEAKER_01]: Hell yeah.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to move to the two American league battles in a moment, but before that, I do want to tell you about our friends at ethos life insurance. [SPEAKER_01]: This was as crazy of a weekend as I've ever had working in my entire life.
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[SPEAKER_01]: Protect your family with life insurance from ethos. [SPEAKER_01]: Get your free quoted ethos.com slash just baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: That's ethosethosethos.com slash just baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's talk about the American League here. [SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to start in the American League West. [SPEAKER_01]: And there were two teams that positioned themselves very effectively atop the AL West.
[SPEAKER_01]: And this might be the sexiest divisional matchup we've got. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to include Texas who's four and a half back as we enter play on Monday. [SPEAKER_01]: Houston is sixty two and fifty, but they've dropped three in a row. [SPEAKER_01]: They've lost eight at ten. [SPEAKER_01]: Two and a half back at them. [SPEAKER_01]: The Seattle Mariners were at sixty in fifty three and Texas is three games over five hundred at fifty eight in fifty five.
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it fair to include Texas? [SPEAKER_01]: Yes or no, Peter Apple? [SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely. [SPEAKER_00]: It's fair to include Texas. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, over this past weekend, the Mariners did take three or four from Texas. [SPEAKER_00]: And it really did feel like the Mariners were kind of show in the Rangers who's boss here and who's the better team. [SPEAKER_00]: And I do think the Mariners are the better team.
[SPEAKER_00]: But that doesn't exclude Texas because we still know. [SPEAKER_00]: This offense has it in them to get red hot at any given time. [SPEAKER_00]: And when you factor in their pitching, the addition of Merrill Kelly, they should absolutely be in this conversation. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the betting odds, they're not taking them completely out of the fight. [SPEAKER_00]: They're actually in line with fan graphs projections.
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at fan graphs projections, [SPEAKER_00]: Basically, they are saying that the assures are way overvalued, because if you look at the betting market, they're making the assures about a sixty-five percent chance of winning this division with the Mariners at a round. [SPEAKER_00]: twenty five to thirty percent and the rangers at about five to seven percent.
[SPEAKER_00]: When photographs has at forty eight percent assures forty one percent mariners and about ten percent. [SPEAKER_00]: Um Texas Rangers and if you're wondering why do those not add up to a hundred. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not really sure. [SPEAKER_00]: Actually, I got to go do some math on that. [SPEAKER_00]: How how that's possible on vangers, but that is the answer on vangers. [SPEAKER_00]: You got forty eight percent forty one percent in ten percent.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we'll see what happens there at least the betting odds. [SPEAKER_00]: They are out of a hundred, but there's hold whatever. [SPEAKER_01]: Wait, regardless, plus forty one plus ten. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, forty eight plus forty one plus ten. [SPEAKER_00]: If you go to vangers right now. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's that's a hundred. [SPEAKER_00]: All I could say is the bed of gods for the ashes are overvalued. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what they are.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, the ashes are inevitable and at the same time, the ashes are going to get back a lot of their players. [SPEAKER_00]: But one question that I still have about Houston, what is going on with you on Alvarez? [SPEAKER_00]: Are we going to see him at all this season? [SPEAKER_00]: It sounds like yes. [SPEAKER_00]: It sounds like yes, but it sounded like we were going to get him back and around this time about a month and a half ago.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the thing is with Kyle Tucker shin, that took way longer than expected. [SPEAKER_00]: And so was this. [SPEAKER_00]: So I keep putting him in my projections for them for the rest of the season, but I have no idea if I actually should. [SPEAKER_01]: So Brian McTaggart, who is a beatwriter for the Astros, he said Alvarez is in West Palm and is, quote, increasing his swings and feeling better according to the manager Joe Spada.
[SPEAKER_01]: The new time table is sometime in mid August. [SPEAKER_01]: for this like, it's like construction of a new restaurant or something or a new apartment building. [SPEAKER_01]: Mid August, I'll take is the very end of August beginning of September. [SPEAKER_01]: But if we get him back for the final month of the season, then all of a sudden this astro lineup has a couple more teeth there than they do right now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Christian Havier, Luis Garcia, Spencer, agedi is eventually going to come back. [SPEAKER_00]: This team is just going to get healthier and healthier. [SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, Esauk Parades is not one of those players who's going to get healthier. [SPEAKER_00]: He is now out for the year with that hamstring. [SPEAKER_00]: But you bring in Carlos Craig to kind of hedge those concerns there. [SPEAKER_00]: It's tough.
[SPEAKER_00]: Because when you look at the strength of schedule, I want to include Texas. [SPEAKER_00]: I really want to make a good case for the Texas Rangers. [SPEAKER_00]: It would not surprise me if they won this division. [SPEAKER_00]: But they have the fourth hardest schedule remaining. [SPEAKER_00]: Wow. [SPEAKER_00]: Three against the brewers. [SPEAKER_00]: Three against the Blue Jays. [SPEAKER_00]: Three against the Phillies. [SPEAKER_00]: Three against the Mets.
[SPEAKER_00]: Six against the Astros. [SPEAKER_00]: Three against the Yankees. [SPEAKER_00]: Like even there, quote-unquote, easy matchups. [SPEAKER_00]: A's, indivision, play them tough. [SPEAKER_00]: Angels, indivision, play them tough. [SPEAKER_00]: Six against the D backs where the D backs can kind of beat anybody on any given day. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, also losing to anybody on any. [SPEAKER_01]: They're one of the frisky as bad teams. [SPEAKER_01]: We've had in quite some time.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hundred percent. [SPEAKER_00]: And then you get the twins who the Ranger should beat them, but you never know. [SPEAKER_00]: And then when you look at the strength of schedule remaining for the Astros, they rank twenty-third. [SPEAKER_00]: Four, eighty-nine, wind percentage combined.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then Seattle even easier, twenty-sixth, four eighty-three-win percentage, like they get the rockies, the white socks, the A's, the angels, the Orioles, the Braves, and even some of their tougher matchups, like they get the guardians, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So they'll also have three against the Ashrods. [SPEAKER_00]: So for me, [SPEAKER_00]: This one's really tough. [SPEAKER_00]: I have a bet currently on the Mariners to win the division at three to one.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the odds are much closer than that now, which is good, but at the same time, like the Astros are just... [SPEAKER_00]: Inevitable, it's really hard for me to get away with them, especially when they have the lead right now. [SPEAKER_00]: And I also think about it, well, is now the time to jump off the ashros? [SPEAKER_00]: Didn't, haven't they already been playing really bad, basically? [SPEAKER_00]: They will get out of this, funk that they're in.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as long as they play pretty well, because I think the Mariners are going to play pretty well, I think the Rangers are going to play pretty well. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're all going to play at a similar rate for the rest of the season, which means I think the ashes are going to end up winning it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be close, but hard for me to go away from Houston, even though Mariners had Nailer, Mariners had Gino Suarez, that offense is going to break and Bryce Miller will come back. [SPEAKER_00]: But the ashes are inevitable. [SPEAKER_01]: The pitching reinforcements kind of push it over the top for me in Houston's way Luis Garcia being due back in days is the most interesting wrinkle for me.
[SPEAKER_01]: He made six starts in twenty twenty three, but this year has been ramping up from his rehab. [SPEAKER_01]: He's made what [SPEAKER_01]: four rehab starts. [SPEAKER_01]: Five rehab appearances. [SPEAKER_01]: One came out of the bullpen weirdly with high FAA and Phil. [SPEAKER_01]: But last time out two and two, thirds, three runs on August first. [SPEAKER_01]: He could very well be gearing up for today. [SPEAKER_01]: They're TBD today.
[SPEAKER_01]: Houston is if they're forty, he threw forty nine pitches. [SPEAKER_01]: I wonder if they see Luis Garcia and just say, you know what? [SPEAKER_01]: You're ready to go give us fifty pitches in a major league baseball game because they do need that fifth spot in the rotation badly right now. [SPEAKER_01]: Once the pitching gets [SPEAKER_01]: firmly solid, firmly right, firmly solid kind of feels like you're doubling down on something that doesn't need to be doubled down on.
[SPEAKER_01]: Once it feels correct, I feel like the Astros can take off a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: Here's how the Mariners win the division because I want to include Texas, but considering how hard the strength of schedule is left for them and the fact is that I'm just kind of hoping for this offense to get red hot. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Even though I love the addition of Merro Kelly and in his first start with Texas, he looked awesome.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're just a little bit far behind for me right now, so the way the Mariners win it is. [SPEAKER_00]: While the ashes are waiting for these players to return, like Xavier, like Garcia, like Eric Eddie, like your Don Alvarez. [SPEAKER_00]: This bad stretch continues in the meantime. [SPEAKER_00]: and they continue to play poorly. [SPEAKER_00]: So when we say hobbynaires coming back, how's this first start going to look?
[SPEAKER_00]: Did they win that game or did they lose that game? [SPEAKER_00]: Luis Garcia as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Like does it take them a second to get going? [SPEAKER_00]: But in the meantime, the ashes are losing those games because it's taking them a little bit to get going. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: And then maybe Yordon's timetable is actually closer to the playoffs rather than September. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the way that the Mariners claw back into this.
[SPEAKER_00]: They keep playing at the level that they are. [SPEAKER_00]: They have an easy schedule ahead so they take care of these bad opponents. [SPEAKER_00]: That's how they win the division. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's possible. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that this is a razor thin margin. [SPEAKER_00]: I just [SPEAKER_00]: There's something about Houston and even Mariners fans probably know it. [SPEAKER_00]: They do know it.
[SPEAKER_01]: So we shall see how all this plays out. [SPEAKER_01]: Man, I'm looking at Bryce Miller's game logs. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he did. [SPEAKER_01]: He was awesome in his last rehab. [SPEAKER_01]: Do you know what Bryce Miller did in his last rehab? [SPEAKER_01]: I do not. [SPEAKER_01]: August first in Triple A, four innings, one hit, no runs, no walks six case. [SPEAKER_01]: Fifty two pitches, forty two for strikes. [SPEAKER_01]: But he's coming back soon.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's how the Mariners are win the division by sporting the best rotation in baseball and you've got Naylor and Gino in the lineup now. [SPEAKER_01]: So that's how they win the division. [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm with you. [SPEAKER_01]: There is a sense of inevitability with the Houston Astros. [UNKNOWN]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to the last division. [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk about the American League East and this thing.
[SPEAKER_01]: All of a sudden is really, really catching fire. [SPEAKER_01]: Toronto. [SPEAKER_01]: They are three games clear, but Boston has won five in a row. [SPEAKER_01]: They are eight and two in their last ten. [SPEAKER_01]: And oh, by the way, the Yankees have slipped a game and a half back of the Boston Red Sox. [SPEAKER_01]: So you got Toronto with sixty five and forty eight. [SPEAKER_01]: You've got Boston at six, two and fifty one, three back of them.
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've got New York at sixty and fifty two, four and a half back of the division leading. [SPEAKER_01]: Toronto Blue Chase. [SPEAKER_01]: Is this a three horse race? [SPEAKER_01]: Yankee fan? [SPEAKER_00]: I actually think the third horse might win it. [SPEAKER_01]: I understand why you're saying that, but please elaborate for the people that might not. [SPEAKER_00]: I will. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the [SPEAKER_00]: I think Yanky's are gonna finish third.
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe that's my pessimistic Yanky brain talking, cause you say Yanky fan like, I hate this team. [SPEAKER_00]: No, I don't actually hate this team, but Yanky fans right now know what I'm talking about. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, this rotation, three does not the same guy when he was pitching to a one zero zero ERA. [SPEAKER_00]: He's still great, but he's not that same guy. [SPEAKER_00]: Neither is Rodon. [SPEAKER_00]: Luis Hiel and his return, not great.
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I still have questions about Will Warren, Cam Schittler. [SPEAKER_01]: Schlittler. [SPEAKER_00]: Kim, Schlittler. [SPEAKER_01]: Schlittler was very good. [SPEAKER_00]: I thought. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: No, he looks good, but I'm just like, all right, is this who were riding for the rest of the year? [SPEAKER_00]: Like, all right. [SPEAKER_00]: Why not? [SPEAKER_01]: He grows ninety nine with a nine. [SPEAKER_00]: He looks like a good slider.
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks like a good young pitcher. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying, I want to win the division relying on two rookies at the back end of the guy in his second year. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I hope it happens. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the bullpen looks great. [SPEAKER_00]: But without Aaron Judge and line up, [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't know how long that's going to take for him to come back. [SPEAKER_00]: It's hard for me to put the Yankees in first or even second in this division.
[SPEAKER_00]: So for me, then it then boils down to the Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox. [SPEAKER_00]: And I guess it's just a feeling of mine that I don't love the Jays rotation. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, surezer and lower, if they keep pitching at this level, like, amazing. [SPEAKER_00]: Basset, brios and gauzemen, you know, their older pitchers getting into the end of the year, do they pitch closer to a three-ERA or two-a-four? [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's going to be closer to a four.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I really like the offense, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the blue jays are likely going to finish second in this division, but I think the red socks are clicking on all cylinders right now. [SPEAKER_00]: And I really go back to the fact that, [SPEAKER_00]: The starters that have stepped up for Boston, we know how good Garrett Crochet is. [SPEAKER_00]: He's the best pitcher in this division. [SPEAKER_00]: He's one of the best pitchers in baseball.
[SPEAKER_00]: So every fifth day, you have a better chance to win than most teams. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Lucas G. Lito has been pitching just as good as Garrett Crochet over his last six starts. [SPEAKER_00]: We posted it on Twitter. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure Peyton who does an amazing job editing these YouTube videos. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to plaster it on the front for everybody to see. [SPEAKER_00]: And Brian Bale was done the same.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you have those three, I feel really, really good about that. [SPEAKER_00]: And the bullpen, you add Steven Maths who is going to help. [SPEAKER_00]: And Chapman, Whitlock, Wysert, I'm probably forgetting armed yourself at the top of my head. [SPEAKER_00]: Justin Wilson has been awesome. [SPEAKER_00]: It's been a really good pen. [SPEAKER_01]: I've had some hits too. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Hicks kind of stinks, but Matt.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why I was talking about seeing Matt's helping this bullpen and the rotation if they need a spot started to. [SPEAKER_00]: And I like to have the offense intact and who knows what you get with Dustin Mann. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Walker Bealer will improve. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'm biased, but I think he's going to improve soon. [SPEAKER_00]: And I look at the offense. [SPEAKER_00]: Roman Anthony just becoming a star.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the future is now in Boston. [SPEAKER_00]: He is arrived. [SPEAKER_00]: He has arrived. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to a one sixty one WRC plus since July first. [SPEAKER_00]: Sedan Rafael has just become a phenomenal all around player, lightning rod and center field defensively, wreaks havoc on the base paths and is in above average hitter.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's that conversations like when you have an elite defender at a premium position, all we need to do is to be average, to be a great player in our game. [SPEAKER_00]: He's above average now. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: Carlos Servaiz has been one of the most underrated catchers in Major League Baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Duran is still swinging it well. [SPEAKER_00]: Bregman is back in healthy.
[SPEAKER_00]: This feels like a team that is catching lightning in a bottle to finish the season. [SPEAKER_00]: And when we look at the strength of schedule, Toronto has the hardest schedule of them all while Boston is around middle of the pack and the Yankees have the easiest strength of schedule. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, it's not a big gap between they're all kind of somewhere in the middle Yankees being the easiest Blue Jays being the hardest.
[SPEAKER_00]: But this is going to be my [SPEAKER_00]: My take that the red socks do end up winning this division. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's all coming together at the right time. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the blue jays have been playing their best baseball and they'll continue to play good baseball, but not at the level that they were. [SPEAKER_00]: And with Aaron judges status up in the air with my questions about their starting rotation for the rest of the year.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going with Boston. [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so I just talked about how I thought the Yankees did a really good job of showing up their deficiencies. [SPEAKER_01]: They created a monster bullpen and they totally retooled their bench. [SPEAKER_01]: They got four bench quality bats. [SPEAKER_01]: They also got a third baseman Ryan McMahon at the deadline.
[SPEAKER_01]: I like the idea of the Yankees bouncing back, but that was an interesting look of a Yankees team for the last two days. [SPEAKER_01]: After that thirteen to twelve loss on Friday, they looked lifeless on Saturday and Sunday, which was awesome. [SPEAKER_01]: And you know what, fight and fish are going to pounce on a lifeless team no matter how large the peril is for the other side.
[SPEAKER_01]: The point that you were making about Crochet and Gielito, Gielito over his last what seven starts is since July tenth. [SPEAKER_01]: Six in one record of two O three ERA, same Marcus Crochet. [SPEAKER_01]: The whip's actually lower. [SPEAKER_01]: Crochet's whip is at one one three. [SPEAKER_01]: Gielito is at zero point nine five. [SPEAKER_01]: Gielito's been awesome. [SPEAKER_01]: I will give the starting pitching advantage still to New York because you have freed and Rodon going.
[SPEAKER_01]: Also, Boone calls him Rodo. [SPEAKER_01]: That's like, I don't know if I love that name because Rodo is no shorter than Rodon. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, I also, I like the end at the end of Rodon. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, it sounds like a powerful last name. [SPEAKER_00]: We don't need Rodo. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think I'm okay on Rodo, but Rodo is too cute for Rodon. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's a big host. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, boy. [SPEAKER_00]: I like the end at the end.
[SPEAKER_01]: I, this is going to be a fun race to monitor because like I would argue that on paper, both Boston and the Yankees are flat out better than the Blue Jays for the home stretch. [SPEAKER_01]: But the Blue Jays have this power friendship thing going on. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Yankees on paper are the best team. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, especially if they get judged back, but judge, it's up in the air. [SPEAKER_00]: And I watch these games.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the Yankees are playing like shit. [SPEAKER_00]: So am I just going to expect that they turn it around? [SPEAKER_00]: Not really. [SPEAKER_00]: Blu-jays applying great baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: The red socks are applying awesome baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: Why would I pick the team that's playing terrible baseball? [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just that simple. [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, you say in the rotation, you like a little bit better with freedom, road on.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a large chance, Gileado and Crochet, I'll perform the both of them. [SPEAKER_00]: And then we start getting into a bunch of rookies and second year guys for the Yankees and Louise Heal. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, the second year guys are turning from injury. [SPEAKER_00]: And you saw the way that he looked to Miami. [SPEAKER_00]: Were you were you happy with that? [SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't I wouldn't be a fire you, but like that's kind of who he'll is.
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're around the strikes on the net, but he walked five hitters per not like he led the American League and walks issued last year. [SPEAKER_00]: So are we going to rely on a guy returning from injury who already has major command questions? [SPEAKER_00]: Probably not. [SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't. [SPEAKER_00]: Why not? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: What about these smart move? [SPEAKER_00]: Young pictures who are reaching their innings limit for the year.
[SPEAKER_01]: You're making good points, Peter. [SPEAKER_00]: I just, and again, I hope I'm wrong. [SPEAKER_00]: Hope the Yankees stomp all over these teams. [SPEAKER_00]: I hope they destroyed them. [SPEAKER_00]: I hope they don't. [SPEAKER_00]: They won't. [SPEAKER_00]: They won't. [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't think they will. [SPEAKER_01]: I hope they don't.
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay. [SPEAKER_01]: Before we wrap, give us a quick look at some of the awards races that are tied because there are some that are signed sealed and delivered already, but I'd be curious to know how the races are heating up. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's look at the ale rookie of the year. [SPEAKER_00]: First, just because it is a foregone conclusion at this point, based on the odds.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I was like, is Nick Kurtz really supposed to be a minus six thousand favorite to win this Roman Anthony has been picking up? [SPEAKER_00]: Of course you have Carlos and Vias. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a bad rookie class, of course you got Jacob Wilson who's injured, but should Nick Kurtz really be that big of a favorite? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just point blank period. [SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting over three hundred.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a one seventy seven WRC plus, which is one of the best in all of baseball regardless of if you're a rookie or not. [SPEAKER_00]: It's got a war over three. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got twenty three jacks. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it is basically a foregone conclusion at this point. [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, I'll play there. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly.
[SPEAKER_00]: The American League MVP is interesting because the odds are still holding strong for judges the favorite, but [SPEAKER_00]: the market and I don't know when he's going to come back. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's where if you're good at judging injuries, no pun intended with the last day mayor judge. [SPEAKER_00]: And you think he's going to be out longer than Cal Rally. [SPEAKER_00]: You should be running to bed, MGM to bed, I'm now.
[SPEAKER_00]: Six point three, war, forty, two, jacks, one, sixty, three, WRC plus we've gone over Cal Rally's case, plenty of times. [SPEAKER_00]: But the thing is, like, Aaron Judge, still almost a win higher, thirty, seven, jacks, three, forty, two, batting average, two, oh, seven, WRC plus. [SPEAKER_00]: So basically, it comes down to this. [SPEAKER_00]: Is Aaron Judge going to return in enough time to win this award? [SPEAKER_00]: Because if he does, he's going to win it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if it's a prolonged absence, cow roll is going to win it. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what the market is telling us right now. [SPEAKER_00]: And the market really is saying they think judge is going to return with enough time to win it. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what the market is telling me.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I can't [SPEAKER_01]: judge that right because I don't know when judges coming back it seemed this weekend like I already saw judge hitting on field and running and everything he was putting on batting practice displays it seemed like it's going to be quicker than it I think everybody initially anticipated [SPEAKER_01]: It could happen by the end of this week. [SPEAKER_01]: It could happen early next week.
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he's only missing ten to fifteen days, then I understand. [SPEAKER_01]: All I'm saying is like, yeah, it does seem like people were optimistic that it would be a short stay and they got to figure out what to do to make sure judges de-aging. [SPEAKER_01]: But judge could de-age the rest of the way. [SPEAKER_00]: There's also an element to that where just because he's back doesn't mean he's back to being air and judge.
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if he's seventy percent of air and judge, that's still a nine hundred OPS player. [SPEAKER_00]: I know, but not with Cal Rally chasing him if we're talking about winning the American League MVP. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the question is how much of Cal Rally? [SPEAKER_01]: Right. [SPEAKER_01]: The question is how many lengths is he ahead of him as we come into the home stretch.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, if it's seventy percent and he misses another week, [SPEAKER_00]: Cal Rawley can catch him. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, if he misses two weeks and then he comes back at ninety percent, I don't know if Cal Rawley catches him. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's really tough to talk about the American League MVP when we just don't truly know the health. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, right.
[SPEAKER_00]: You say he might be coming back soon, but doesn't mean he's going to come back fully healthy. [SPEAKER_00]: Probably means that he just wants to [SPEAKER_00]: help his team by any means necessary in order to try and win this division, right? [SPEAKER_00]: He could come back and still not be feeling it, but tell the trainers, you know what, get me just back out there, even if I can't throw a play DH. [SPEAKER_00]: And now that hurts the Yankees, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because they have a revolving door of DHs and he's one of the best defenders on the team on a team that's not very good defensively. [SPEAKER_00]: So that also hurts. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, a part of me wants to go with Rolly here, because if he finishes out the season healthy, [SPEAKER_00]: And let's say Judge does have the lead in war when it all comes down to it has the lead in WRC plus but Cal has played every single game and Judge has missed twenty games this year.
[SPEAKER_00]: And let's say the Mariners win the division in the Yankees don't, which I think is actually kind of likely makes you think that Cal Rally might win it in that scenario, which I think is a likely scenario. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm leaning Cal on this one. [SPEAKER_01]: Interesting. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's just tough because it's such a injury laden timeline that there's no way you can, you know, pick and try and forecast. [SPEAKER_01]: Like, oh, how bad is the flexor strain?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Nationally MVP seems like a foregone conclusion at this point, which is funny because peak or Armstrong has a five point six F or an Otani is at four point eight. [SPEAKER_00]: But the odds are telling us it's Otoni's award. [SPEAKER_00]: By a lot, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Current odds, you're gonna find Otoni at around minus seven hundredish. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: And P-Crom, showing you're gonna find it around plus what is it? [SPEAKER_00]: Six, fifty.
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's not over yet. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think we have to answer as Otoni get a pitch for the rest of the year. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think he seems like he is. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it seems like he is. [SPEAKER_00]: So if he does, [SPEAKER_00]: And there's no more injuries in both keep playing at their current levels.
[SPEAKER_00]: When you add in the pitching war for Otani, he might get the edge there and because he's pitching, the voters are going to go with him, and especially if the birds win the division. [SPEAKER_00]: Like if the birds win the division, PCA is no shot. [SPEAKER_00]: Zero. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: The companies do win the division. [SPEAKER_00]: And let's say the podries catch the Dodgers, which is not out of the realm of possibility.
[SPEAKER_00]: Then it gets a lot closer. [SPEAKER_01]: I still think the NL MVP moving forward is the Otani invitation. [SPEAKER_01]: And I will stand by that. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's show. [SPEAKER_01]: Hey, Otani's award until proven otherwise. [SPEAKER_01]: Hundred percent. [SPEAKER_01]: So Otani, I understand the one that made an interesting surge. [SPEAKER_01]: I saw with Schwerber.
[SPEAKER_01]: And all of a sudden Kyle Schwarber is in the outside looking in of those conversations with thirty eight pumps and he's I think tied with Raleigh for the Major League lead in RBI. [SPEAKER_01]: See, they both have eighty eight Schwarber as thirty eight homers. [SPEAKER_01]: He tied with Otani in the home run department and Schwarber is also at a nine fifty seven OPS. [SPEAKER_01]: Same mark as Raleigh.
[SPEAKER_01]: The only other guy, and I'm not saying he's going to win it, but I'm saying he should get some serious mid-Ballet down-Ballet votes. [SPEAKER_01]: Kyle Stauer's people open your eyes. [SPEAKER_01]: Dude, he's fifth and baseball in OPS. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's also a Leventon war, and in the nationally, he only trails Tray Turner, Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis, Jr. [SPEAKER_00]: Showhail, Tony, and P. Cromstrong, so he's what six or seventh and war on top of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: The problem with the Marlins, of course, is the team, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to be able to win the division? [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's unlikely. [SPEAKER_00]: You never know, you never know what those fight and fish, but, you know, Carroll's not going to win it. [SPEAKER_00]: Tray Turner's probably not going to win even though he's having a very solid year. [SPEAKER_00]: Tatees is a good dark, dark horse hero. [SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to win it.
[SPEAKER_00]: He is seventh in war in Major League Baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: He's right behind Otonny. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to win. [SPEAKER_00]: If he goes thirty forty, which is not impossible, gets hot in the second half and keeps playing great defense. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's around the same war totals as PCA. [SPEAKER_00]: When it's all said done, again, that's asking a lot. [SPEAKER_00]: That it's asking for PCA to start to slide, which is possible. [SPEAKER_00]: We know he goes through peaks and valleys, talking about taught teeth going cold.
[SPEAKER_00]: That chase rate can bite PCA in the ass. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the path. [SPEAKER_00]: Podger is win the division. [SPEAKER_00]: Tatis gets red hot and PCA slows down a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say Otani struggles on the mound. [SPEAKER_00]: That's how Tatis would win it. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, we're just coming up with interesting scenarios when in reality, it show Hayes Wardalus. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Moving on to what's up next.
[SPEAKER_00]: Nationally psi on the ward. [SPEAKER_00]: This market, I don't really understand. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I do understand it because Pulse seems schemes is just a runaway train. [SPEAKER_00]: He's becoming a runaway train and I don't get it. [SPEAKER_00]: I really don't because with Wheeler [SPEAKER_00]: Like Wheeler's just been so unbelievable this year in the Nationals. [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, but ultimate counterpoint.
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a huge difference between a two, six, four ERA and a two, two ERA. [SPEAKER_00]: I know, but then you also got Chris for Sanchez at a two, four. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm worried that the pirates are going to limit schemes as innings moving forward. [SPEAKER_01]: If they have a chance to see this guy win a Siang Award and get a pick, they're going to let him go no haltspart. [SPEAKER_00]: Do they get a pick if he wants to sign on?
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the reason they'll let him go then. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if they just keep letting schemes go, the run prevention is off the charts. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he could finish the season with an ERA under two. [SPEAKER_00]: And if he does that, he's going to win it. [SPEAKER_00]: But, and again, the odds are giving him about a sixty five percent chance, Wheeler, more of a [SPEAKER_00]: thirty five percent chance.
[SPEAKER_00]: All I'm saying is I think those odds should be closer, but I get what you're saying. [SPEAKER_00]: If schemes keeps pitching like this, and they don't limit him, it's his order loose. [SPEAKER_00]: American League Sigh Young. [SPEAKER_00]: When I pull up the odds here on bed, MGM, [SPEAKER_00]: Um, it's going to be school at the top for good reason, right? [SPEAKER_00]: These are on minus five hundred to win this award with Gary Crochet.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, behind him at about plus five hundred. [SPEAKER_00]: And then you have down ballot guys, like to grome, uh, hunter brown, Nathaniel Valdi, Framberville, Des Max Freed. [SPEAKER_00]: But really, this is a two horse race between Terri, school, and Gary Crochet. [SPEAKER_00]: You look at innings, Crochet's got an inning more. [SPEAKER_00]: You look at strike out rates, schools about a two percent higher. [SPEAKER_00]: You look at ERA, [SPEAKER_00]: point zero five gap.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you look at some of the underlying metrics. [SPEAKER_00]: They like Scooble more because he's walking one point two to two per nine versus crochet at two point four two. [SPEAKER_00]: Again though, I think the odds are just too much. [SPEAKER_00]: But with that said, I'll pick Scooble. [SPEAKER_00]: But the odds are still too much.
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I don't think that Scoob will should be this automatic runaway favorite when the innings, the strike array and the ERA are so close. [SPEAKER_00]: Because I think those are the three most important things for judging. [SPEAKER_00]: We don't care about your underlying metrics when we're looking at a Ciong word winner. [SPEAKER_00]: We're looking at ERA strikeouts and innings.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if crochet throws more innings and maybe leads the league and strikeouts because he's right there and have the same ERA. [SPEAKER_00]: Are you telling me it's not going to be razor thin, which is exactly what it is right now, but the odds are saying no, no, no, scooples by a mile, like way more than schemes Wheeler. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think you could even make a better argument that [SPEAKER_00]: Skin should be a bigger favored over Wheeler than scuba should be over Crochet.
[SPEAKER_00]: Correct. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's a complete opposite. [SPEAKER_00]: The market loves scuba way more than Crochet. [SPEAKER_01]: I think you have to take into account the big three in terms of voting criteria. [SPEAKER_01]: And that is to your point in XERA and strikeouts. [SPEAKER_01]: And the fact of the matter is Crochet is a lot closer to scuba in all three of those than Wheeler is to skates.
[SPEAKER_01]: Although Wheeler is passing by skins and punchouts, he's also ahead of him. [SPEAKER_01]: I want to say by like ten innings or so. [SPEAKER_01]: But the ERA gap is just so drastic between skins and Wheeler with scoobling crochet. [SPEAKER_01]: Like there's a world where they end up with identical ERAs by the end of August. [SPEAKER_01]: And then all of a sudden we're just in a home stretch who has the better month of September.
[SPEAKER_01]: So I really do feel like this is going to be a bit more of a toss up than you would expect right now. [SPEAKER_00]: I agree. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it is a toss-up, but the market firmly disagrees. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a couple's to lose, and I do think it's gonna end up being scuba, like we said earlier, but. [SPEAKER_00]: Don't kind of, my boy crochet. [SPEAKER_00]: Starts. [SPEAKER_01]: Last time we got, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, last but certainly not least, nationally rookie of the year. [SPEAKER_00]: Drake Baldwin has taken a hold of this market, especially with Mizraveski going on the shelf and coming in second to size of Collins and I've been just banging the eyes of Collins drum all season long. [SPEAKER_00]: It's one of the most underrated players in baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: Look at WRC plus. [SPEAKER_00]: You'd expect Drake Baldwin.
[SPEAKER_00]: who's more offensively gifted, young player to be well ahead. [SPEAKER_00]: He's not, one, twenty eight WRC plus for Baldwin, one, twenty six for Isaac Collins. [SPEAKER_00]: Right Drake Baldwin does have the lead in home runs. [SPEAKER_00]: He strikes out less, but Collins ability to get on base at a three, seventy eight clip compared to Drake Baldwin. [SPEAKER_00]: It just three, fifty and the fact that Isaac Collins is playing great defense in the outfield as well.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's really turned into a two-horse race here. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, what I will say is, when we look at straight up bats, I mean, Augustine Ramirez is right up there. [SPEAKER_00]: Liam Hicks is right up there, shot up fish fam, Caleb Durbin has been good offensively. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, every burdo Hernandez, another rookie for the Marlins, the only reason why Hernandez won't be able to win is just because of games played.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the problem with Augustine Romeras is he grates out as a negative defender, so voters are going to see that war total and just be like, we thought you had a great year, you're a great bat, but when other guys are hitting and playing the defense, like Isaac Collins and Drake Baldwin do, it really is a two horse race. [SPEAKER_00]: And again, it's another market that I don't think is giving Isaac Collins the shine.
[SPEAKER_00]: especially if the burrs when the division in the braves just keep faltering. [SPEAKER_00]: If Collins has a late surge and Baldwin stays as is, Collins is likely gonna have the WRC plus lead and the war lead. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's seven to one right now in bed, MGM. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that line is off. [SPEAKER_00]: Now what I will say is, you look at the underlying data. [SPEAKER_00]: Both these two guys are offensively. [SPEAKER_00]: Drake Baldwin is the man.
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Drake Baldwin. [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at his ex-woba, [SPEAKER_00]: He's like one of the best offensive catchers in baseball period, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's tough. [SPEAKER_00]: I'll go with Baldwin just because I think he still has a little bit left to unlock offensively where Isaac Collins is overperforming some metrics. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, if Collins, there's only two months left.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm saying overperforming if he just stays hot, [SPEAKER_00]: where we'd say he can't. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why I think if I'm looking at some of my favorite bets from everything that we've talked about so far, Isaac Collins, and I'll rookie the years near the top, seven to one. [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I'm bias. [SPEAKER_01]: I like Augustine a lot. [SPEAKER_01]: Baldwin seems like an also strong pick, but when you lay out those two, again, it just like it comes down to criteria.
[SPEAKER_01]: What are voters going to care about? [SPEAKER_01]: And if the answer is war, and if the answer is team success, I understand how Collins can win it. [SPEAKER_01]: But if they love homers like that episode of the Simpsons with Mark McWire, I will firmly plant my flag in the Augustine Ramirez camp. [SPEAKER_01]: But that's our program. [SPEAKER_01]: I got to run. [SPEAKER_01]: Say see you at a run. [SPEAKER_00]: So hopefully everybody enjoyed this episode of the just baseball show.
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[SPEAKER_00]: For Jockel Pollen, I am Peter Apple. [SPEAKER_00]: We will see you on Thursday. [SPEAKER_00]: And with that, thank you everybody.