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[SPEAKER_01]: First bet offer today. [SPEAKER_02]: It's interesting. [SPEAKER_02]: So talk about the draft and the Derby all star Monday. [SPEAKER_02]: It is Monday to live for teeth. [SPEAKER_02]: We're coming to you a little late. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm sorry. [SPEAKER_02]: Jack are I'm just baseball show as always. [SPEAKER_02]: It is presented by the fine folks at betmgm. [SPEAKER_02]: Here's what we're going to do.
[SPEAKER_02]: Rapid fire one through thirty we're going to do knee jerk reactions to each pick. [SPEAKER_02]: My draft. [SPEAKER_02]: intake was the just baseball and I'll be draft live stream, which was excellent as always, but I'm going to try and word questions in a way that we get unique insights from RM and then we're going to bring Peter on for the home run Derby preview. [SPEAKER_02]: We've got so much coming up, but man, crazy travel day for me yesterday. [SPEAKER_02]: We're here.
[SPEAKER_02]: We're in Atlanta. [SPEAKER_02]: We're going over to the battery here in a matter of an hour and a half, two hours. [SPEAKER_02]: The draft was really fun last night too. [SPEAKER_00]: It was the most chaotic. [SPEAKER_00]: I, you know, every time I say, like, as long as I've been doing, I can't say that compared to, you know, the gym calluses of the world and things like that. [SPEAKER_00]: So I always feel funny saying, like, this is the craziest I can remember.
[SPEAKER_00]: But in my handful of years of doing this, it definitely was the most unpredictable. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the first pick pretty much exemplifies that, right? [SPEAKER_00]: We didn't know who was going number one. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the nationals knew who was going number one until minutes before. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think this was, [SPEAKER_00]: wonderfully chaotic and I think it made it very, very fun.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was kind of to be expected to a degree because there's a lot of prospects that I think were all in the same kind of future value tier. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was also wide open. [SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't so clear, cut at the top that it was even more, and it's, oh, yeah, amateur scouting, except for interpretation already.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think even more than ever, you had a lot of players that could be anywhere from six on one team's big board to twenty two on the other. [SPEAKER_00]: And from some of the early feedback that I've gotten, [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like some players were exactly that.
[SPEAKER_00]: Some teams that got their guy had him six on their big board and other teams thought about him as a late first round pick and I know that always happens, but it just seemed like it was a little bit more prevalent this year. [SPEAKER_02]: Before we go pick by pick, I do want to ask you, did you have a woe of the draft and I want to phrase it like this? [SPEAKER_02]: Was your woe of the draft pick one pick two or the others? [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's funny actually.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the best way to phrase it because [SPEAKER_00]: pick one was a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, [SPEAKER_00]: If it was a runoff for it was like, okay, well, because will it's went one, then somebody else maybe were expecting it went to. [SPEAKER_00]: No, if anything, it made it even more of a, okay, we'll slam dunk here. [SPEAKER_00]: Angels have to take Kate Anderson who flies through the minor leagues and fits their bill, right, but most likely in the next year and they don't.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it made number two like a compounding wall. [SPEAKER_02]: It was really weird to watch those go back to back. [SPEAKER_02]: And I was thinking, Hold up, the world is the Seattle Mariners Oyster right now. [SPEAKER_02]: Like, it's not supposed to work that way. [SPEAKER_02]: But we're going to start with the number one overall pick. [SPEAKER_02]: And it was Eli Willitz, high school shorts up. [SPEAKER_02]: Went number one of the Washington Nationals.
[SPEAKER_02]: Eli Willitz was at Fort Cobb, Brockston High School in Oklahoma.
[SPEAKER_00]: the slot value at the number one overall pick this year is of course another record every single year it's going to be a record eleven point o eight billion dollars you have to assume it's under a feel like the question is how much is it under with him and I think it's going to be a good bit you know I don't think it's going to be crazy crazy but no matter what anyone who was drafted number one overall I think was going it did to go under something a big reason why this is uh... this happened was
[SPEAKER_00]: New era in Washington, we're going to spend a little bit more time on the top here, because we were talking about the decision to let Rizzo go right before the draft. [SPEAKER_00]: I think this was maybe part of it, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You look at the top draft prospects and you know, Kate Anderson and Ethan Holiday, you know, both rep by Scott Boris, Boris, you know, definitely holding strong on those two guys.
[SPEAKER_00]: It could easily have been, you know, it's a coin flip for who could have went one one there. [SPEAKER_00]: And I imagine that he wasn't budging on his ass can price.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... maybe the mic riso nationals play ball with porous and they make it work uh... but this new era of national ball said that take a hike we like will it's just as much and we're gonna save a couple million potentially you know in doing so and i think the other interesting part is that we'll get to a decade and are sent ends up you know not even really signing for over slot at three we broke it actually that you know he signed for eight point eight or at least agreed to eight point eight which is seven hundred thousand underslot so
[SPEAKER_00]: It seemed like there was a little bit of a joint effort to not let Scott Boris run this draft a little bit at the top. [SPEAKER_02]: And I think about twenty twenty three because Dylan Cruz was a Boris guy and Washington obviously takes crews at two. [SPEAKER_02]: It was full slot. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if it was a matter of playing ball or Mike Rizzo saying, you know what, this is the best position player prospect in the draft. [SPEAKER_02]: We're just going to do this.
[SPEAKER_02]: No problem. [SPEAKER_02]: Sign sealed delivered. [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, we move. [SPEAKER_02]: This felt really different because he controlled the draft. [SPEAKER_02]: He had the two odds on favorites to go number one overall. [SPEAKER_02]: And I have no idea how deep into the weeds. [SPEAKER_02]: Debar Tolot could have gotten because he just got his president of baseball operations or GM job like a week and a half ago.
[SPEAKER_02]: I have no idea how deep this sell it guy could go who is in year one running the draft for the nationals after spending the last twelve in the draft room for Baltimore. [SPEAKER_02]: I really don't know how much they could do, but my only thing about drafting will it's here? [SPEAKER_02]: And I'm all for taking the guy that you think is gonna be the best war accumulator in the draft. [SPEAKER_02]: And if they feel like that was Eli Willett some all the way in on that.
[SPEAKER_02]: But if they did this because they wanted to stick it to an agent, I start to question that a little bit. [SPEAKER_02]: And the reason I say this is you just fired your GM, you just fired your manager, your fan base is a little fractured right now. [SPEAKER_02]: You had two slam dunks that you really couldn't have gone wrong with optically and they chose option C. And that was a little weird to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: Which I actually like I'm excited about because it could if it I think with the underslot picks I was talking about it all last night. [SPEAKER_00]: You probably heard me say a bunch a bunch of times It's like I won't judge the underslot pick until I see what they do with the underslot money right?
[SPEAKER_00]: So like if the nationals buy down some some high school where they looked like you was gonna go to campus [SPEAKER_00]: and you know it's there's a couple guys are still in the board at the time of the recording this like if they if they're able to sign somebody away for a couple million dollars you know in the in the fourth or fifth or sixth round then then it could be worth it right you're getting almost another first round talent there the other side too is like with willets
[SPEAKER_00]: I really did feel like, of course, it was Kate Anderson for me personally, like number one guy in the draft. [SPEAKER_00]: But I looked at Willets and holiday is one A and one B, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And so, you know, and I think when you look at what Willets can do, tools across the board, he's going to stick it short. [SPEAKER_00]: He's the youngest, you know, of these kind of top-end high school short stops here.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have an extra year for him to kind of develop and mature a little bit more physically, the bloodlines, all of those things. [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's so much to like there with him. [SPEAKER_00]: And it just seems like there's a really, really, really safe bed of him being that three to four win shortstop. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, maybe the ceiling isn't quite as high if it all clicks for compared to what if it all clicks for holiday.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the floor relative to high school guys is really high. [SPEAKER_00]: It's easy great like some of his parts type of player. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why I think if it's one B to the one A, which is how I saw it. [SPEAKER_00]: And you can save potentially a couple million dollars. [SPEAKER_00]: It could make a lot of sense here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, I do appreciate a [SPEAKER_00]: Some people in new positions here, being willing to take some chances and be different and not take the chalky pick. [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see how it all goes. [SPEAKER_00]: We'll see how they utilize those savings, but I think that one made a lot more sense than number two. [SPEAKER_02]: Pretty chalky pick at number two. [SPEAKER_02]: Tyler Bremner, a right hander at a UC Santa Barbara is at number two overall pick at the LA Angels.
[SPEAKER_02]: They're approaching rocky territory for me, where it's becoming lovable, how weird they are, and how unorthodox this whole thing is, at least the Rockies when they have someone fall to them, they don't like try and get super crazy, they just take them, right? [SPEAKER_02]: Like, don't land or fell to them, they just took them. [SPEAKER_02]: Holiday fell to them before they just took them. [SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk about that in a couple of minutes, but Bremner it too.
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought Burns at two last year was a little shocking. [SPEAKER_02]: Hindsight's twenty twenty obviously looks good now. [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, this feels closer to Sam Bachman than Chase Burns. [SPEAKER_02]: This was crazy today. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I think, you know, of course, better armed in Bachman.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I know I know you're not even alluding to that, but it was just that shocking of just like, okay, um, you know, and and brand-mer, I think [SPEAKER_00]: very very talented arm obviously can get it up to the upper nine and easy average ninety five miles an hour with his fast ball the shape is not the best but the change up is a lead and you could argue that's the best pitch in the draft in a in a vacuum
[SPEAKER_00]: There's points where the fastballs had better carry, so maybe there's some aspects to being able to get that going more. [SPEAKER_00]: He's also flashed, you know, some more arm side run on the fastball, so I think finding some more distinct shape and maybe two different fastballs would help a lot.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the angels clearly feel like that there's some projection there, but he can't really spend the breaking ball nearly as well as he can flip a change up at this point. [SPEAKER_00]: And you're going heavy on a fastball change up guy, you know, at the number two pit here. [SPEAKER_00]: And I just, I think when Kated Anderson is sitting right there, [SPEAKER_00]: Right there, man, like I just I just don't understand it.
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, you got to give it the opportunity. [SPEAKER_00]: You got to see what happens. [SPEAKER_00]: And if there's there's been crazier things that have happened, then Bren Brenner being a better pitching prospect and Kate Anderson or better pitch through than Kate Anderson, like I would be floored. [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm forward all the time, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Without Brian Wu would be the best pitcher. [SPEAKER_00]: Pretty much out of that draft in the sixth round.
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't see that happening. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think, you know, with the way that the angels like to operate, you have a left handed pitcher who throws a ton of strikes with good characteristics and a good feel for secondarys. [SPEAKER_00]: And a deeper bag of pitches. [SPEAKER_00]: He may not have an individual pitches good as Bramner's change up. [SPEAKER_00]: All of his other pitches are better. [SPEAKER_00]: And he is more pitches. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's a lefty.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the track record and performance is better. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really understand this one too much. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, you do have to apply the logic of, okay, well, they're probably going to save a shit little money. [SPEAKER_02]: Sure. [SPEAKER_00]: How are they going to apply it later? [SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's a lot different. [SPEAKER_00]: Having that conversation with Bremner versus Kate Anderson compared to Willets versus Holidays.
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I think Willets and Holiday are one A one B. Kate Anderson was one. [SPEAKER_00]: And Bremner was like five of his position. [SPEAKER_02]: So when you say shit ton of money like I just wonder is that is that three million dollars is that two and a half million dollars because they could be getting crazy savings right now and we won't know for a week we can have two weeks.
[SPEAKER_02]: But for me like if you're going to go edgy college arm pick, why would Bremener be the choice over Jamie Arnold because Arnold just seems like he's got a way higher floor than Bremener. [SPEAKER_00]: It's interesting. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know. [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like they, they, was it a question for you? [SPEAKER_02]: Like I thought Arnold was was far clear of Bremner at the time. [SPEAKER_00]: I would at least lean towards him.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and I think there's people that may prefer the archetype of a Bremner, but [SPEAKER_00]: I look at the angels who employ Kyle Hendrix, Jack O'Honowitz. [SPEAKER_00]: They seem, and I'm not comparing them to those guys, but this is a strike throwing nasty change up guy, and it just seems like they like those they gravitate towards those players more. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think they were talking about ceiling.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the change up heavy guys are a little bit more tempered with their ceiling. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's going to be the interesting part to monitor. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got a great great chance of being a number four starter. [SPEAKER_00]: I just at number two. [SPEAKER_00]: That's, uh, it's an interesting pick, especially because Kate Anderson ends up signing for seven hundred thousand underslot. [SPEAKER_00]: Anyways, are agreeing to sign for seven hundred thousand underslot.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, we're going to speed it up a little bit again, going rapid fire through the first round before a home run to be preview, but one and two were fascinating. [SPEAKER_02]: And obviously those are going to take up the bulk of the conversation, but Anderson three to Seattle, the LSU right hand or left hander. [SPEAKER_02]: Um, Kate Anderson, uh, this was match made in heaven, falling to Seattle. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, our marine layer boys were here, you know, for the draft stream.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, they were over the moon. [SPEAKER_00]: I get it. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, how could you not be? [SPEAKER_00]: This is best case scenario. [SPEAKER_00]: It would have been best case scenario if they went full swat, but they didn't, right? [SPEAKER_00]: That meant the other part. [SPEAKER_00]: So they we got some money to work with here too. [SPEAKER_00]: You look at the pitching situation at the big league level.
[SPEAKER_00]: There's gonna be some guys clearing up and at least because he was gonna move on and Anderson could be a guy that debuted for you in twenty twenty six by this time next year without fasting and moving through the minor league. [SPEAKER_00]: Match made in heaven. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Cade, that's probably where he wanted to go as well. [SPEAKER_00]: It sounds like that's what the deal was.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you're a Mariners fan, this has to be beyond the best case scenario. [SPEAKER_00]: I think this is what you were dreaming on, but almost didn't want to think about too much because you figured no chance. [SPEAKER_00]: And here you are. [SPEAKER_02]: Also, Matt's been having it for Ethan Holiday, falling to Colorado, was huge. [SPEAKER_02]: And it sounds like Matt could be very well involved in the Colorado Rockies operation.
[SPEAKER_02]: Seeing the quotes from Matt too, him pretty much saying, I will do whatever's needed for me or whatever's requested for me for the Rockies, make that guy your GM. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's get holiday in the building. [SPEAKER_02]: Ethan in Iraqis uniform is number one going to be great for the two thousand space ball enjoyers that remember Matt dominating in Iraqis uniform. [SPEAKER_02]: Number two, this is like what they wanted from Brendan Rogers.
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel better about, yeah, like this than the Brendan Rogers run off of Swanson, Breggman and Rogers. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just it's it's so freaking good for the rockies period. [SPEAKER_00]: We were talking about that on the screen. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just they need some good news is poor rockies fancy something to get excited about and this is a guy that can be the face of your franchise and the thing is even if he's
[SPEAKER_00]: a three to four win player which of course he can be better than that because he's a holiday and because of the moxie and I think just the way he carries himself like that's he's gonna bring people to the ballpark and but the thing that the reason why I also really like the fit is and this might be the best fit besides the fact that they have pictures of him as an infant and rocky skier as his dad's holding him at course field is is the fact that
[SPEAKER_00]: Swinging Miss was a little bit of the concern with him, right? [SPEAKER_00]: It's power over hit and now you're going to put him in a place where some of the hit tool concerns can be hedged a little bit with more room to operate in terms of the outfield pitches don't move nearly as much and he's a big power guy that I think that's what you're really dreaming on. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean [SPEAKER_00]: There's a chance it could stick at short. [SPEAKER_00]: They obviously have tow bar.
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a holiday tow bar left side of the infield. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a really fun, you know, future to dream on. [SPEAKER_00]: And I've just looked at the Rockies are doing the making their best effort to drift into obscurity, despite the fact that their fans show up continuously. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just glad that fans are, you know, have something to get excited about a little bit sooner here.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, and even though he's going to be in the monitors for a few years, it's just a guy that you can look at and just just [SPEAKER_00]: feel better about what the future may hold. [SPEAKER_02]: It's also good because, you know, all right, holiday spends four years in the minor leagues, right? [SPEAKER_02]: Ryan McMahon's on a third extension by then, and the Rockies are winning a hundred games. [SPEAKER_02]: You can probably trade him for a setup guy, which will be awesome.
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we could like go low slot. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, heavy arms side run. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: We can get you a seventh inning. [SPEAKER_02]: You found another iteration of Justin Lawrence and it's like, you know what, we'll give you Ethan holiday for him. [SPEAKER_00]: It was and Matt, you can take him to actually the last thing I've been talking to. [SPEAKER_00]: is this is also a player they can't fuck up.
[SPEAKER_00]: If he doesn't reach his ceiling, it's just because he didn't have it in him. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think he has it in him. [SPEAKER_00]: But like the thirty eight voices that are all wrong in Rocky's development that tell you to swing different ways and send your mind into a frenzy will not affect Ethan Holiday because he has his dad. [SPEAKER_00]: He lives in a batting cage with his brother and they're going to work and work through whatever kinks. [SPEAKER_00]: Look at Jackson.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there were adjustment periods, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And he got right. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think with Ethan, it's something that they have all the resources at home. [SPEAKER_00]: And I always talk about third party hitting coaches, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And certain organizations that aren't in the best position to be able to help some of their top talented prospects. [SPEAKER_00]: We talk about a Connor Griffin who made those changes, you know, I think on his own.
[SPEAKER_00]: Ethan holidays in a great position to be able to just say, oh, yeah, yep. [SPEAKER_00]: That sounds good, Rocky's men and women. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, thank you for the, [SPEAKER_00]: for the info and then just go and get his work in on his own like I think he's going to be fine hundred percent uh let's jump to five here I loved this pick for St.
[SPEAKER_02]: Louis Liam Doyle left-handed not in Tennessee electric left-handed starting pitcher they go with pitchability a lot and I I saw the initial reaction you look at the heightened weight measurements for Liam Doyle like he's six two two twenty you say oh just another max rad-chitch just another like [SPEAKER_02]: Just another grab like that. [SPEAKER_02]: No, that's not the case.
[SPEAKER_02]: This guy might have been the most electric pitcher in the draft and St. [SPEAKER_02]: Louis has a guy that can climb very, very quickly. [SPEAKER_02]: For me, this is almost a more advanced hence. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a good comparison there. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just the differences. [SPEAKER_00]: Hence, well, he doesn't command it quite as consistently, but he could throw the change up and foot the breaking ball.
[SPEAKER_00]: I am really interested to see what the development of Liam Doyle's breaking ball is looks like, because he just doesn't really have a reliable one at this point, but you've got ninety seven to a hundred. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the average ninety seven and over's lost six appearances of the year, so I six starts at the year, you know, from the left side, which is going to play with with life. [SPEAKER_00]: And then you've got a nasty splitter off of it.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can find something, he can spin a little bit more. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's going to be in a really good spot. [SPEAKER_00]: But what I like about Doyle, too, is worst case scenario, you may have a freaking closer here. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, you may have a left-handed closer and an elite one at that. [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, if it doesn't work out in the rotation in these Tanner Scott, sounds good to me.
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, I think you're going to be patient and hope that you can develop them into a really exciting impactful starter. [SPEAKER_00]: But I like the fallback there here where you have a high leverage arm that can still accumulate plenty of war. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go to number six here. [SPEAKER_02]: And at number six, the Pirates selected Seth Hernandez, the Southern California pitcher. [SPEAKER_02]: Hernandez Tall Lanky guy, six four one ninety.
[SPEAKER_02]: It just seems like they love pitching. [SPEAKER_02]: And they know how they can make it better and turn it into assets. [SPEAKER_02]: And if you got to move Patrick Riley for Billy Cook, you can do that. [SPEAKER_02]: You can close your eyes and dream on skins, Jones, Bubba, Hernandez, Harrington, and that's gross, next level gross. [SPEAKER_02]: But you can also say give us two years to make Seth Hernandez one of the best pictures in the upper minors.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if we are ready to contend by that point, we can move him for an all-star bat. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: I see what they're doing. [SPEAKER_02]: It makes a lot of sense to me. [SPEAKER_02]: So before you say, oh, we need hitting prospects in that system.
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, but you gotta draft what you're good at because at the end of the day you stockpile capital you build assets in the minor leagues and then you can move them for guys like Tommy fam especially teams that don't want to spend like there they're trying to create assets as you mentioned whether it's acquiring prospects and squeezing more out of them or or drafting guys and developing them and with with Hernandez you look at what they're doing at that pick six pick
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you've got our cat on the board who we're going to get to in the next spot. [SPEAKER_00]: Judge O'Parker, Steel Hall, Billy the Carlson. [SPEAKER_00]: I would say of the sealings, the only other guy that has a ceiling that compares to Hernandez would be Billy Carlson. [SPEAKER_00]: And the pirates already just were very fortunate that they drafted a guy with that was tooled up with hit tool concerns that is capable of making the swing adjustments that he made.
[SPEAKER_00]: I applaud the pirates for being introspective enough to realize that they're probably not going to hit two and a row there and maybe realizing that Connor Griffin was it was a testament to him to be able to make those improvements already swing wise. [SPEAKER_00]: Go play to your strength where you can have a superstar arm and maybe the highest ceiling arm in this entire class as you mentioned. [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm not even as I want to spend money. [SPEAKER_00]: Create assets.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what they're going to do here. [SPEAKER_00]: I think from top to bottom, is there an organization that has more exciting arms right now? [SPEAKER_00]: Like we didn't even mention the counterbarco is a borderline top one hundred guy as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Um, you look at from skins to now, Seth Hernandez, like all the way down with a Bubba in the middle and a Jared Jones would be healthy so hopefully soon.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and all of those wrinkles, like who's got more, you know, pitching excitement from the big leagues all the way down to, you know, the low, the low miners. [SPEAKER_02]: I really don't think there's anybody else to be totally honest with you.
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Seattle just because they're bolstered by what they're doing at the top and then you got guys like Sanja and you got other guys that fill in and they're [SPEAKER_02]: Not fringe top on a hundred guys probably in the in the one fifty to two fifty range there are probably three arms in the Seattle system that fall into that clump but they have such strength at the top and then they have back up there.
[SPEAKER_00]: I was just I don't know that you've got cade yeah you could [SPEAKER_02]: right Seattle now that you have Katie Anderson is is crazy and then like you know then Logan Evans becomes your tenth best pitcher in the organization and that's next level so I think Seattle Pittsburgh and then Philly with the top end talent that they have as well with a guy like painter I'm cooking
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like those are probably the three best pitching situations in baseball, but Seattle in the race and the race. [SPEAKER_00]: And the race just because they're the race. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and the race because they're the race. [SPEAKER_02]: But let's jump to seven here. [SPEAKER_02]: I have our cat of Oregon State goes to the Miami Marlins, six, five, two hundred and twenty pound short stop.
[SPEAKER_02]: This was a slam dunk, and I loved that the Marlins just went this direction. [SPEAKER_02]: They did more Lando under slot to Carter Johnson over slot last year. [SPEAKER_02]: Front of the program, Frankie Polary. [SPEAKER_02]: Man, this was, this was a hell of a night to be a Marlins person. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think this is exactly what you're hoping for, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a high school heavy draft, of course, but when the marlins were victims of lottery circumstance there, you wondered what was going to be there at seven potentially, and when ends up being there is the best college bat in the class, comfortably. [SPEAKER_00]: And it is a little bit because the bat, the class skews high school top heavy, but [SPEAKER_00]: You got the best college bat in the draft at seven. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a really exciting proposition for the Marlins.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what we're talking about in terms of just the Marlins organizational situation. [SPEAKER_00]: They don't have a ton of position player prospects, especially on the infield side, that you could look at and say, okay, that's the guy that I'm hoping will be that piece within the next two years or so on the left side of the infield or whatever it may be. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think with with our cat, you can, you can not say that immediately.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's really exciting. [SPEAKER_00]: the power potentials there. [SPEAKER_00]: You have the chance to stick it short. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Marlon's fans should be really excited about this. [SPEAKER_00]: It's been a while. [SPEAKER_00]: I think since a draft is kind of unfolded this way for them and you know, you get the exact guy you would want. [SPEAKER_02]: They believe he's a shortstop.
[SPEAKER_02]: They believe that's a guy that can hit twenty homers and play shortstop. [SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, worst case scenario. [SPEAKER_02]: He pivots to third base and he's a heck of a third baseman. [SPEAKER_02]: It is a, I don't want to see poor man's version because I've our kid has yet to play a professional baseball game, but granted this guy's a top five prospect in baseball. [SPEAKER_02]: It's a poor man's version of what Walcott is doing in Texas right now.
[SPEAKER_02]: He's playing short. [SPEAKER_02]: You feel like you have a third baseman, but he's playing short and he hasn't proven that he's unplayable at short stop right now. [SPEAKER_02]: It's a better situation than Colson Montgomery in Chicago. [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, just it. [SPEAKER_00]: No doubt. [SPEAKER_00]: No doubt. [SPEAKER_00]: I know Tyler Jennings has, I think he thinks he has a fifty five on the glove.
[SPEAKER_00]: So he thinks he can be a slightly above average or above average short stop. [SPEAKER_00]: Then I mean, that's even more exciting. [SPEAKER_00]: It's I think it's at this present moment. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what it looks like. [SPEAKER_00]: But as you mentioned, six five, like it could fill out a little bit more. [SPEAKER_00]: But if you move to third, then he's in above average defender there.
[SPEAKER_00]: Or maybe plus you can accumulate war and lean into the slog and it's an interesting equation there either way. [SPEAKER_00]: They get an infielder that can stick on the left side of the infield and can add some thump and I think that was what they sorely needed in the organization. [SPEAKER_02]: Jojo Parker at eight to Toronto high school shortstop out of the state of Mississippi boys with Connor Griffin Mississippi high schoolers.
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a good friend to have and Jojo Parker. [SPEAKER_02]: I know you really like him and you feel like the blue jays. [SPEAKER_02]: They got a legit shortstop. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, I think there's a chance he could move off to third, but they got a legit bat. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, and I think he's got, he's going to get an opportunity to stick a short, but I absolutely love the field of hit, the bat speed.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's one of my favorite swings in the class without it doubt. [SPEAKER_00]: And if he does move to third, it's a more conversation. [SPEAKER_00]: It's an above average third base as well. [SPEAKER_00]: I think this was a great get. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, they went very pitching heavy last year. [SPEAKER_00]: They're a lot of their top prospects are pitching guys other than, you know, Namala. [SPEAKER_00]: I love the fit and they have a lot of swing and miss guys mixed in there.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's funny they kind of go both ends of the spectrum right where it's either swing and miss guy or or hit hit over everything. [SPEAKER_00]: And I feel like they've done better with the hit guys, you know, and I think Parker fits that bill and is a better fit I think for being able to move a little bit more quickly for them and is another strength I think that they've had a little bit more of.
[SPEAKER_00]: Instead of you know playing to the irrelvices of the world I think you know that the John John Cassivitch or Josh Cassivitch is of the world like those types I think end up aging a little bit better for them and I like to fit steel hall at nine high school shortstop I did not know who this was once in static victim at nine [SPEAKER_00]: He's a tool shed. [SPEAKER_00]: The reds have gone tool shed heavy the last few years, right?
[SPEAKER_00]: This is probably the low and eighty grade runner in the draft. [SPEAKER_00]: I just, you see the approach, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You see the trends here where they went Tyson Lewis in the second round last year. [SPEAKER_00]: That guy's already popping one, seventeen's. [SPEAKER_00]: He's volatile. [SPEAKER_00]: So they're taking it slow with him and he's still playing at the complex, but he's running into some big time power that takes to four up before that.
[SPEAKER_00]: They like [SPEAKER_00]: going for high-up side, I mean, camp collier, you think about that as well. [SPEAKER_00]: And Hall is also extremely young. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that was another angle that they loved. [SPEAKER_00]: You think about collier, it was the youngest. [SPEAKER_00]: So it fits the bill of what the reds usually do, and I feel like they're probably quite excited to land them. [SPEAKER_02]: And then at ten, Billy Carlson went to the white socks.
[SPEAKER_02]: This is one that you can really dream on if you're on the south side. [SPEAKER_00]: A hundred percent. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, price, seven. [SPEAKER_00]: You go up at short stop. [SPEAKER_00]: You can dream on plus power. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a swing that of the guys that we've talked about is definitely going to need the most work, though. [SPEAKER_00]: Really lungy kind of overstrides.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think to compensate for overstriding, really like ends up turning inward and and barrel tipping to try to keep himself back. [SPEAKER_00]: So there's a well, and that's going to make it really hard to get back around and get on plane. [SPEAKER_00]: You could change that tomorrow. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's the thing. [SPEAKER_00]: It's so unpredictable with amateur hit tool and size things like that.
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the tenth pick, where you're able to get a guy that could be, I mean, realistically, how many times are you going to get a chance to get an all start ten and a draft that's not loaded?
[SPEAKER_00]: It's quite rare and this is a guy that if it all works out you can get an all-star from the white socks I'm shooting for the ceiling to at this point and just continuing to volume shoot so I think you got to you got to like the pickup there and the good news is even though he's a volatile option Yeah, it could be a seventy glove. [SPEAKER_00]: It's short so that the offense of barrier there is so low It could be a thirty-grade header and he still has a big league roll for you.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah [SPEAKER_02]: All right, we're going to go a little rapid fire through eleven through twenty here. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just going to tee you up for each pick and then I want two set two sentences like just gut reaction. [SPEAKER_02]: How did you feel when this pick came through? [SPEAKER_02]: Number eleven, Jamie Arnold of the A's Arnold, the left hand out of Florida State. [SPEAKER_02]: I'll I'll save you at the breath. [SPEAKER_02]: I love it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's exactly what they needed, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You had this success with Gage jump this past year, but that wasn't the way it around. [SPEAKER_00]: Arnold is just an exciting arm that in an organization that doesn't have a ton of them. [SPEAKER_02]: Gavin Fiend, fine. [SPEAKER_02]: To all the overall pick by the Rangers, he is a high school shortstop at a California. [SPEAKER_00]: It is some reminiscent of Josh Young.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I know it's a bad time to say that now because he hasn't been playing to well and he got options, but it's a very well-rounded game third base. [SPEAKER_00]: I know probably came with some savings too. [SPEAKER_02]: Gavin Keelen went to San Francisco shortstop at a tenancy at thirteen. [SPEAKER_00]: Crazy how similar the spellings are if you go like how many letters overlap here between these two. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's it's tough. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like seeing double.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's a great get to I like this. [SPEAKER_00]: I think some savings probably to this might be one of the the safer. [SPEAKER_00]: hitters in the class, especially outside of the top top guys. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a ridiculously good blend of hit approach and sneaky pop because of the these strong angles. [SPEAKER_02]: To the raise swing for the fences again at fourteen Daniel Pierce, Mill Creek High School in Georgia shortstop. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I don't have a ton on Pierce.
[SPEAKER_00]: He's definitely a projection play and and you know, toolsy swinging for the fences. [SPEAKER_00]: It fits the bill of what they normally like to do and they like to go in that George area and and identify some exciting talent there and I'm very eager to see what Pierce looks like because I love the Theo Gillen pick last year. [SPEAKER_00]: I think this could be a fun player too, but I just I don't have a ton on him other than it.
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like he's a little bit raw and has a lot of upside to. [SPEAKER_02]: uh... another year and another stud falling the Boston Red Sox kison with her spoon right hander at a oklahoma probably fell way further that he should have any felt right into Craig brezel's lap at fifteen if it's like a glove uh... it's it's just the the assortment of secondaries uh... do you know the organization lady they don't like to throw a ton of fastball i think it's fastball performed fine but
[SPEAKER_00]: his secondaries are a strength and I think that's something that he's going to lean into even more so with the red socks. [SPEAKER_00]: I love the fit of a guy with a deep bag of pitches a unique release and elite make up that it's going to have all of these resources with a very pitching and development heavy organization. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's one of the best fits in the first round.
[SPEAKER_00]: another short stop when it's sixteen mark Houston the wait for a short stop he went to the twins they like to draft kind of boring now the sudden but I do have some Danny Sorretty they've been doing that for a while it's not a slight of Houston I think you know you're getting another one of them better defensive short stops in the entire class but not a lot of impact [SPEAKER_00]: And that's going to be the big question there.
[SPEAKER_00]: But even if it's bottom of the barrel power with great defensive shortstop and a good, good, bad to ball, you're going to have a pretty good player there. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just, it's an archetype that gets overlooked a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: But hey, I think people were, we're talking about lack of ceiling on Kael and Cole Pepper and early returns look great there as well.
[SPEAKER_02]: Cool. [SPEAKER_02]: Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest Outfielder, was this a reach for the Cubs at seventeen? [SPEAKER_00]: It depends on the medical, and clearly they're not too concerned about it, but there was a lot of concern leading into the draft about just the shoulder, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And that was what held him out this season. [SPEAKER_00]: I love the swing, and the cubs have been nailing just swings.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a very powerful, but simple, six, three, two, twenty, left handed swing. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think this could be a great upside play. [SPEAKER_00]: He raked on the cape. [SPEAKER_00]: It's interesting. [SPEAKER_00]: If he's healthy, I don't think it's a reach at all. [SPEAKER_00]: If he can see if he responds really well from the injury. [SPEAKER_00]: But if not, then it's up in the air. [SPEAKER_00]: But I imagine they did their due diligence.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think this has the upside to actually be a really fun pick. [SPEAKER_02]: Got you. [SPEAKER_02]: What's up with case and cunning ham at eighteen to Arizona high school shortstop? [SPEAKER_00]: If Joe Joe wasn't my, you know, just favorite high school swing in the class is probably case and cunning him and you know, I think less likely to stick a short probably moves over to second, but this is a guy that you just you just feel really good about the ability to hit.
[SPEAKER_00]: that the sneaky pop because of the kind of frame-defying batsby that he produces, I think, cutting him. [SPEAKER_00]: I had him in probably top fifteen, closer to top ten in this class, so I think it's a really exciting grab for the D-backs who go a different route a little bit later. [SPEAKER_00]: I love the pairing of him in Patrick Forbes, but cutting him is a really pure header.
[SPEAKER_00]: Baltimore went with the approach of drafting a college all start team and their first pick was like Irish at nineteen he is a catcher it was listed as a catcher out of Auburn but he's that catcher outfield type right yeah he's going to he's going to play the outfield I think but uh... yeah there's a lot of smoke to to underswadding him in the eight nine ten eleven range and it's a very unorthodox swing so i'm interested to see you know how how that develops and and you know
[SPEAKER_00]: just evolves and it professionally. [SPEAKER_00]: He gets the ball really hard, but it's on the ground a little bit too much. [SPEAKER_00]: But these are all things that the Orioles are well aware of. [SPEAKER_00]: Guy that I think most teams are the public boards had higher. [SPEAKER_00]: And the one thing that the Orioles have done quite well is get guys swings a little bit more optimized.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think they see something here and they're going to try to get them right. [SPEAKER_00]: He still was insanely productive, so I think it's dismissive to say, get him right when he's been so good. [SPEAKER_00]: But just a little bit more primed for professional success. [SPEAKER_02]: A couple of takeaways here on number twenty. [SPEAKER_02]: Milwaukee took Andrew Fisher, the Tennessee third baseman. [SPEAKER_02]: Number one, Tony Vitalo was on the desk at MLB network.
[SPEAKER_02]: That is awesome for him that he had three picks within the top twenty. [SPEAKER_02]: And he got to analyze those guys. [SPEAKER_02]: I remember Pat Casey doing that for like the Adley Ruchman draft. [SPEAKER_02]: And you know, I think that was the Trevor Larnick draft as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: Nick magic. [SPEAKER_02]: I feel like was a year before, although I'm not entirely sure, but that's fun. [SPEAKER_02]: The Tony Vitello had three top twenty picks.
[SPEAKER_02]: Number two, the old three school and three year guy, huh? [SPEAKER_02]: Duke to Ole Miss to Tennessee. [SPEAKER_02]: Portal is an absolute mess. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't mean to yell from the porch and, you know, like, there are two thick in my mouth, but come on, three schools and three years. [SPEAKER_02]: It's just never fun to see. [SPEAKER_00]: No, no, but it also shows that it doesn't really matter, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Teams are still, if you're good, you're getting picked.
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're getting identified in the data works, it works. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think when you look at the bad-a-ball data for a Fisher, it's real impressive. [SPEAKER_00]: And the Brewers, they don't care as much about position. [SPEAKER_00]: If they like the swing and they like the bad-a-ball data, they're going to go after you. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's exactly what they do here where they get a guy that I think can absolutely match.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the ball in the air consistently. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's hard with, you know, above average contact rates, big reason why I liked Burke in the grab last year, a little bit later in the comp round. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think Fisher fits the bill too.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm eager to see if that makes them a little bit more comfortable to part with a bovie or some of these other prospects that [SPEAKER_00]: or corner guys that are hit over everything, or just offense over everything. [SPEAKER_00]: with how well-welcome is swinging it, do you feel like he could be on the move at the deadline? [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's another guy too.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you may be a little bit more comfortable moving a well-can when you feel really good about getting a Fisher here. [SPEAKER_00]: I know they've got to be pumped about just getting a hitter like him. [SPEAKER_02]: Do you like the cadence here? [SPEAKER_02]: Do you just want to tell me the picks you'd like, twenty-one-three-thirty? [SPEAKER_02]: Because I'm more than happy to walk through the cadence of like, pick-by-pick.
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have a ton on some of the other guys coming up like, I do buy one of my favorite picks of the drafts is the next one. [SPEAKER_00]: Is Saviour Niance. [SPEAKER_00]: I, I was, I tried to be that to involve this Tyler the title of this is it's just [SPEAKER_00]: on the draft circuit, so much more in depth than I am.
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why if you're wanting to know how your team drafted so far or just over on the draft, check out Tyler's just big board in our draft rankings at just baseball. [SPEAKER_00]: It's so detailed and I'm really lined up pretty closely with the way things shook out. [SPEAKER_00]: So you get a really good idea on just where these players kind of rank up here. [SPEAKER_00]: But I was in his year, I'm like, [SPEAKER_00]: Can you please push nions up for me?
[SPEAKER_00]: That swing is outrageous. [SPEAKER_00]: And there's so much to dream on physically. [SPEAKER_00]: It's it's six, four, two, ten, but long levers yet. [SPEAKER_00]: He controls those levers really well. [SPEAKER_00]: It's explosive. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this guy has monster power potential. [SPEAKER_00]: I loved this guy here. [SPEAKER_00]: I thought he was a top twelve player in the class. [SPEAKER_00]: And so it's a get him at twenty one.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's going to be right around, you know, the full slot is what I'd guess. [SPEAKER_00]: It's exciting. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're for the Astros. [SPEAKER_00]: I love that pick for them. [SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I think kind of going through the rest of you want to talk about some that stand out to you. [SPEAKER_00]: I know that with with the Royals, Jared was really excited about Sean Gamble.
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the the tools across the board there for a high school out fielder. [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot to be pumped about there. [SPEAKER_00]: Tigers go with the money saving pick with with Yost who I think was like seventy on the big board, which I thought was interesting.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, how how unsurprising you by the crew's schoolcrafts pick by the podress that was he says you pick ever I I only knew about cruise schoolcraft because I knew he was six a and had very very sound mechanics on the hill and San Diego is in love with guys that looked like that cash may feel as a big guy right may feel like six four
[SPEAKER_02]: six four and then Boston Bateman six seven six eight and it's like they want guys that are big but don't pitch like their big they pitch like their normal human beings and that's cruise schoolcraft so I like San Diego again they're sticking to what they do really well couple other ones that just jumped out to me by trends [SPEAKER_02]: J. Slavia let is not a Cleveland Guardian in most years, but J. Slavia let is a Cleveland Guardian this year.
[SPEAKER_02]: I found that pic to be fascinating and it feels like they're getting a lot of value at the end of the first round. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a good shot to take because, you know, he's an athlete and that's underrated part of his game. [SPEAKER_00]: You can play a good corner. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're going to try to get him some reps and center still too.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a fun shot to take for a team that clearly is willing to swing for the fences literally and figuratively more now when you acquire a Nolan Jones and it hasn't worked out but they've tried to balance things out by going for some more power and swing and miss risk after being so hit tool driven over the years and I think there's a lot of reasons for them to maybe make that adjustment with the way things have gone.
[SPEAKER_00]: And then again, I love the pairing of Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond. [SPEAKER_00]: And just with the two highest school guys there, I think the Royals are getting a lot of upside. [SPEAKER_00]: And so I think that was a fun blend in leveraging the PPI opportunity. [SPEAKER_00]: But back to lobby alert, it's a fun upside play, but it's also unprecedented with in the first round. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's a foresealing conversation here. [SPEAKER_02]: two quick ones for me.
[SPEAKER_02]: What Arizona did with Forbes, they added a fastball and a half the Louisville starting pitcher Patrick Forbes jumps into the Diamondbacks organization. [SPEAKER_02]: I love what this guy can do. [SPEAKER_02]: It's electric. [SPEAKER_02]: He could be in that bullpen. [SPEAKER_02]: He could also be a back end starter. [SPEAKER_02]: It feels very. [SPEAKER_02]: Drey Jamison with the chance for more right. [SPEAKER_00]: I love that. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I love that come.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that fastball is electric electric. [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to need to throw some more strikes and [SPEAKER_00]: It was a high high fastball usage, but this is another guy where if a worst case scenario gave throw him in the pen, he's going to shove in leverage potentially too. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think they've got time to try to develop him and see what can happen. [SPEAKER_02]: And last one for me, Kate and Bodaya at the end of the round, the coastal Carolina catcher.
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, every report is he's one of the most advanced defensive catchers that we've seen at the college level in quite some time. [SPEAKER_02]: And then you start to forecast what could happen in Baltimore, but SIO's not going to catch. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's make that abundantly clear. [SPEAKER_02]: So then you could look at an Adley catching four days a week, Boda, I'm catching two days a week, and the SIO playing first base or DH, whatever it may be.
[SPEAKER_02]: And if they do get priced out of Adley, Retchman, Baltimore has their era parent to Adley, Retchman, at this point in Boda. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and you know, of course, the ceiling much lower, but the floor is so high with boat on is a phenomenal defender, as you mentioned, but on top of that, a great great hitter. [SPEAKER_00]: It's the question is going to be the power, but the bat's a ball is is so, so impressive.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you've got the bat's a ball there for a switch hitter. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that archetype I've talked about is continues to be underrated. [SPEAKER_00]: As long as you don't swing a wet noodle, if you're a plus hitter with plus defense behind the dish, you're going to have a pretty easy time getting a three-war. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why I think it's crazy that this archetype continues to get overlooked.
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, he's going to need to show that the hit tour fully translates and he's going to need to show that the EVs will maintain with wood, but even if they don't, you've got a good backup catcher. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, and I know that you're not wishing for a backup catcher at authority, but if that's the contingency point, like the floor is so, so high, but I think he's got a great shot to be a regular catcher.
[SPEAKER_00]: That was one of my favorite picks, too, in the back end. [SPEAKER_02]: Love it. [SPEAKER_02]: Time for a line change. [SPEAKER_02]: Get out of here. [SPEAKER_02]: Peter for the Home Run Derby Preview. [SPEAKER_02]: Now. [SPEAKER_02]: Line change complete. [SPEAKER_02]: Peter Apple here for the Home Run Derby. [SPEAKER_02]: How many people participate in this Derby Twof?
[SPEAKER_01]: eight eight and the rules are a little bit different before we get into a lot of the analysis of who's going to hit the most dingers. [SPEAKER_01]: I was kidding. [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, the way. [SPEAKER_02]: Sorry, just quick aside, I was kidding. [SPEAKER_02]: I know how the Derby works, but yeah, you give us, you give us the rule changes. [SPEAKER_01]: Do you know how the Derby works? [SPEAKER_01]: I do know how the Derby works.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I've watched them for the twenty whole of my watching for approximately thirty years and I'm twenty seven. [SPEAKER_01]: It's still the best bit when people comment does this guy even watch baseball when his job is to watch baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: All right. [SPEAKER_01]: This year's first round is going to have no predetermined seeds which I like, right? [SPEAKER_01]: So it's kind of a knockout round.
[SPEAKER_01]: In the first round, it says many home runs as you could possibly hit and then those four go to the next round, right? [SPEAKER_01]: And then it's a knockouts again. [SPEAKER_01]: So one versus four, three versus two. [SPEAKER_01]: And it's also a little bit different this year because normally it's just a timer, right? [SPEAKER_01]: A three minute period to hit as many home runs as you can. [SPEAKER_01]: But this year it's three minutes or forty pitches, whichever comes first.
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's a bonus period for each player that lasts for three outs and a non-home run swing. [SPEAKER_01]: If a player hits a home run of at least four hundred and twenty five feet within the bonus period, the period is extended until the player records the fourth out. [SPEAKER_01]: And then ties in the semifinals or finals are broken by a sixty second swing off with no additional time added.
[SPEAKER_01]: If a tie remains after the swing off, batters that engage in its success. [SPEAKER_01]: Successive three swing swing offs until there is a winner. [SPEAKER_01]: And there's also a new wrinkle to the clock. [SPEAKER_01]: Maximum number of pitches each hitter can see in each round. [SPEAKER_01]: The first round and semi finals will end when three minutes or forty pitches are up in the finals.
[SPEAKER_01]: It will end whenever two minutes or twenty seven pitches comes first, excluding the bonus period. [SPEAKER_01]: All right, rules are over. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk to yours. [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, let's talk to you. [SPEAKER_02]: There's absolutely no chance that we are disappointed by this. [SPEAKER_02]: That's my sweeping takeaway from this bracket. [SPEAKER_01]: No shot.
[SPEAKER_01]: And what's also pretty cool is that this field has combined for a hundred and seventy four home runs this season, which is well above the twenty twenty four group total of a hundred and forty seven home runs going into the event. [SPEAKER_01]: We got Cal Rally with his eight hundred and nine bombs before the All-Star Break break in every single record. [SPEAKER_01]: We have O'Neal crews with the hardest hitball in the stat cast era.
[SPEAKER_01]: We have James Wood who is just a freak of freaks. [SPEAKER_01]: We have Junior Caminarah who is in the same bucket as James Wood, but Byron Buckston, Brent Rucker, Jazz Chisel, Matt Olson who came in now for runner to Koony Jr. [SPEAKER_01]: This could not be a better field. [SPEAKER_01]: I am so freaking excited.
[SPEAKER_02]: So do you want to go player by player real quick and like the four one one or do you want to kind of just walk us through your thinking right now how this thing could unfold? [SPEAKER_01]: I think that walking through each individual player might just waste time just because they're all going to break. [SPEAKER_01]: They're all. [SPEAKER_01]: That's fine. [SPEAKER_01]: Brent works. [SPEAKER_02]: He plays in Sacramento hits bombs. [SPEAKER_02]: Jazz Chism plays in New York.
[SPEAKER_02]: It's bombs Matt Olsen. [SPEAKER_02]: Fifty four homers two years removed. [SPEAKER_02]: Who else? [SPEAKER_02]: We got James Wood, nasty opposite. [SPEAKER_02]: Pop. [SPEAKER_02]: Cal Raleigh is nearly forty homers. [SPEAKER_02]: When it'll cruise hits the ball hard. [SPEAKER_02]: Who am I missing? [SPEAKER_02]: Camanero on the ground, but if you elevate, elevates, you can celebrate and then bucks in his bucket. [SPEAKER_02]: Okay. [SPEAKER_02]: Let's go. [SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
[SPEAKER_01]: So the way I'm looking at it is, and shout out Colby Olsen, he found this trend, I think it was four years ago. [SPEAKER_01]: Ever since the Homer and Derby changed the rules, it used to be in all out slug fest. [SPEAKER_01]: You would get ten outs, and it wasn't much of a stamp in a game, so there weren't many trends. [SPEAKER_01]: But since they changed the rules, there have been two traits that every single Homer and Derby winner has shared.
[SPEAKER_01]: except for Taoska Hernandez, who had absolutely none of those traits last year, which is funny. [SPEAKER_01]: But knowing that it's more of a stamina game and that every single winner up until Taoska Hernandez won it has been twenty-six years here younger makes a lot of sense to me, fresher legs, right? [SPEAKER_01]: Just more tune for a stamina type competition. [SPEAKER_01]: And the second trait is Max Exit Velocity.
[SPEAKER_01]: because as maxx velocity increases, potential home run distance increases. [SPEAKER_01]: So even when you don't perfectly square up a baseball, it can still leave the park. [SPEAKER_01]: And there are three players who fit those two traits. [SPEAKER_01]: O'Neil Cruise, James Wood. [SPEAKER_01]: and Junior Camino. [SPEAKER_01]: So I think those three are the most likely to win it based on past trends. [SPEAKER_01]: But like I said, Tiosca Hernandez won it last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: So really anything can happen. [SPEAKER_01]: It's a wide open event. [SPEAKER_01]: And I think it is the best all star event in any sport that there is. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm with you. [SPEAKER_02]: The slam dunk contest used to hold that title. [SPEAKER_02]: But I think after Aaron Gordon's Zach Levine, it is being on the home run Derby and it's not particularly close. [SPEAKER_02]: Agreed. [SPEAKER_02]: Um, I also think the Pro Bowl flag football game is greater.
[SPEAKER_02]: The dodgeball game. [SPEAKER_02]: What are they doing now? [SPEAKER_02]: That's there. [SPEAKER_02]: The Pro Bowl might actually be the worst thing ever televised. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: And I hope the ulcer game. [SPEAKER_01]: It is cool that they have, uh, they're using their jerseys from their actual team. [SPEAKER_02]: I want to go back to home field advantage. [SPEAKER_02]: I want to go back to that came matter. [SPEAKER_01]: I agree.
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I, it's better for baseball. [SPEAKER_01]: I want, I want that came to matter a little bit more. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_02]: So here's what my take from the Derby field was. [SPEAKER_02]: At initial release, I thought it was going to be an uphill battle to beat Akunya in this thing. [SPEAKER_02]: I thought Ronald Akunya Jr. [SPEAKER_02]: could very well run away with it. [SPEAKER_02]: This guy's batting practice is a spectacle and he's doing it in his home ballpark.
[SPEAKER_02]: Now that Olsen swaps in for Akunya, I feel less great about a brave to be honest. [SPEAKER_02]: I think Olsen is is [SPEAKER_02]: a viable candidate, but for me, the swing is too big too long. [SPEAKER_02]: I feel like it plays best in a game. [SPEAKER_02]: It's best to enjoy it over a one sixty two. [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if it's best to enjoy it over the course of three minutes. [SPEAKER_02]: Now granted, I could be eating my words here in about six hours.
[SPEAKER_01]: Olson to me, I get what you're saying to me, he feels like a historic round one and then fades. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: Like that swing starts working, he's elevating baseballs, he's using the timer, and then he just puts up crazy numbers, and then gets that final four. [SPEAKER_01]: And then in the first round of that final four, the sign of my finals, he gets bounced by one of the young guys who are just a little bit fresher than him.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why I'm a little bit worried about Kyle Rally. [SPEAKER_01]: Right? [SPEAKER_01]: I know he's been playing a lot of DH, but he's been catching eight ton, right? [SPEAKER_01]: Over fifty percent sixty seventy percent of his games have been at the catching position. [SPEAKER_01]: He's got to be tired. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what a first half. [SPEAKER_01]: And then going into a competition where it's not only based on stamina. [SPEAKER_01]: But it's a huge part of it.
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why I can't really go with the catcher. [SPEAKER_01]: And then Jazz Chisolm, as the anchor fan, I'm excited to watch him. [SPEAKER_01]: But I feel like he has no chance. [SPEAKER_01]: And I hope I eat my words. [SPEAKER_01]: I would love to be wrong on that. [SPEAKER_01]: Jazz Chisolm takes home the crown. [SPEAKER_01]: And Buckston and Rucker kind of feel similar to Olson to me, that they're really going to compete early and then just fade.
[SPEAKER_01]: But the guys who are just hitting the ball, the hardest. [SPEAKER_01]: The young guys. [SPEAKER_01]: And another element of it is, [SPEAKER_01]: You can win a lot of money if you win the home run Derby. [SPEAKER_01]: Of course. [SPEAKER_01]: A million dollar prize to the first place winner. [SPEAKER_01]: Five hundred thousand to the runner up. [SPEAKER_01]: Guys like O'Neill Cruz, James Wood, Jr. [SPEAKER_01]: came in there with the young guys in the competition.
[SPEAKER_01]: Money might mean a little bit more to that. [SPEAKER_01]: Of course. [SPEAKER_01]: So that's why I'm just gunning for the young guys. [SPEAKER_01]: But at the end of the day, no pick in the derby is a bad pick. [SPEAKER_01]: It's the home run derby. [SPEAKER_01]: Like I've given everybody all these dumbers. [SPEAKER_01]: They ask her an end as one at last year. [SPEAKER_01]: Have fun. [SPEAKER_01]: It's such a blast of a competition and I can't wait.
[SPEAKER_02]: So, of those three, who presents the largest concern? [SPEAKER_02]: Is it common arrow and that his swing could just be hundred and fifteen mile in our gromm balls for three minutes and then we're done? [SPEAKER_01]: I think the biggest concern is actually with O'Neill Cruz and the fact is he missed a game right before the All-Star Break ended. [SPEAKER_01]: They wanted to rest his hip. [SPEAKER_01]: which is definitely something to monitor, but here's my view on that.
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Pirates and O'Neal Cruise feel like he's healthy enough to compete in the home run Derby, then he's probably healthy enough. [SPEAKER_01]: And if he wasn't, they wouldn't let him compete. [SPEAKER_01]: They're not going to make him go out there when he's feeling all right to go risk it in the home run Derby. [SPEAKER_01]: So that would be one thing to watch. [SPEAKER_01]: But with Junior, I could just see the excitement getting to him. [SPEAKER_01]: James Wood as well.
[SPEAKER_01]: Just guys who are super, super young, and they go crazy. [SPEAKER_01]: They use all of their energy. [SPEAKER_01]: They exert, they're incredibly fast swing speeds, right? [SPEAKER_01]: Because O'Neill Cruz, James Wood and Junior Cam Nero, all ranked top ten in swing speed. [SPEAKER_01]: If they're getting up into the eighty mile an hour range and just using all of their might in the first round, they could also fade.
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why O'Neill Cruz, to me, if he is healthy, is just the pick here. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, a hundred twenty three mile an hour max exit velocity. [SPEAKER_01]: I know he hits a lot of line drives, but he's going to elevate in the home road Derby against batting practice. [SPEAKER_01]: I think he could be, I think this could be truly a historic run for O'Neill cruise. [SPEAKER_01]: That's how Hardy hits the ball.
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's how perfect I think he is for this competition. [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm with you. [SPEAKER_02]: I think cruises absolutely the pick. [SPEAKER_02]: My thought is [SPEAKER_02]: We may not see a performance like O'Neill Cruz for quite a while, but in terms of sustainability, it's so easy for James Wood to hit the ball out of ballpark. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's the thing with O'Neill Cruz. [SPEAKER_01]: He hits the ball harder. [SPEAKER_01]: It's actually easier for him.
[SPEAKER_02]: I know, but he gets that huge swing off a lot. [SPEAKER_02]: I think I almost think it's [SPEAKER_02]: for certain that we see Cruz hit the longest Homer tonight, but for wood, wood could just like slap a couple balls into left center field and it would just, you know, like all of a sudden he's got ten left center field homers and then he's like, I should probably start pulling so and then chop house, beware. [SPEAKER_02]: Wood, it feels like over the course of games.
[SPEAKER_02]: There's so much untapped power potential still and this guy's a superstar already. [SPEAKER_01]: and to further your point, I check the weather at Truus Park for the Derby, and there seems to be a little, the wind is pointing out to less center field. [SPEAKER_01]: Who crushes balls the left side of the field? [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the righty's do, of course, like Rucker, like Buckston, like Caminero, but [SPEAKER_01]: James Wood is going to hit some upout tanks.
[SPEAKER_01]: But still, you know, looking at truest, it's weird because right field is two feet farther, and the fence is higher. [SPEAKER_01]: But you look at baseball, so far, park factors. [SPEAKER_01]: It's actually generally easier for lefties to hit home run at truest park, rather than varieties, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. [SPEAKER_01]: But it really, a chop house is closer. [SPEAKER_01]: Is it closer?
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought it was three, thirty, five and three, thirty, three. [SPEAKER_02]: I, I will, I don't know the exact dimensions, but I will tell you the ball carries a bit better going out to bright. [SPEAKER_02]: It may just be the chop house kind of blocking any possible wind tunnel there. [SPEAKER_02]: Like there's a space in left center field in right. [SPEAKER_02]: There's not much like you can just shoot it. [SPEAKER_01]: That makes sense.
[SPEAKER_01]: So, but her baseball's on again, the lefties are at a slight advantage, but with some wind blowing out to left center field. [SPEAKER_01]: doesn't that just feel like the perfect James Wood perfect. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that guy makes his buddy of opposite field home runs, but that whatever he pulls the ball, it's actually easier than would write he's pull the ball. [SPEAKER_01]: So it feels like it's perfectly set up for James Wood.
[SPEAKER_01]: O'Neal Cruises just too damn powerful and junior cam and arrow. [SPEAKER_01]: I think with how hard he hits the ball and how young he is, and I'll probably fresh he is for something like this, and how excited he could be. [SPEAKER_01]: He could also go crazy, but again, like Brent Roker could win it all. [SPEAKER_01]: All of these guys are some of the best power hitters. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, boom made a big time run last year.
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like guys like that where you don't have to hit it as far as everybody else, but if you're just making consistent contact and hitting the ball for ten, you're going to make noise in this competition. [SPEAKER_01]: And that's why I like Brett Rucker. [SPEAKER_01]: I think he, I think he is one of my favorite long shots of one of the guys that I haven't mentioned. [SPEAKER_02]: Have you done the dive into batting practice throwers?
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not all of them, but I know that Cal Rawley, his dad is going to be throwing. [SPEAKER_01]: And I think Brent Roker is using his little league coach. [SPEAKER_01]: Not everyone has come out with it yet, because we're also recording in the morning. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure more people will come out with who's thrown their batting practice. [SPEAKER_01]: I know that James Wood is also using bullpencatcher, who I guess has dynamite BP, and we already saw them.
[SPEAKER_01]: to a practice round in Milwaukee. [SPEAKER_01]: Dear God. [SPEAKER_01]: Dear Holy Moly. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm in just and he's not swinging hard at all. [SPEAKER_02]: All right. [SPEAKER_01]: Not swinging hard at all, just easy, easy, easy. [SPEAKER_01]: Makes me want to just elbow the brakes, truck on Jameswood, but then I remember only a cruise. [SPEAKER_01]: That's how good this competition is.
[SPEAKER_01]: There are, there are guys that in any other competition, I think would be way up the board. [SPEAKER_01]: I love this field. [SPEAKER_02]: So you're just settled on cruise and that's final. [SPEAKER_01]: No, so I've three picks based on the odds. [SPEAKER_01]: I kind of sprinkled my way through. [SPEAKER_01]: So if any of these three guys win, we'll end up profiting so that it's only a cruiser's my largest bet. [SPEAKER_01]: Half unit, nothing crazy.
[SPEAKER_01]: It is the home run, Derby. [SPEAKER_01]: We're just trying to have some fun here. [SPEAKER_01]: A quarter unit on James Wood and then point one five units on junior cam in Arizona. [SPEAKER_01]: So based on the odds, okay, if any of them win, I would profit, but knowing the home run, Derby and how crazy it is, there's no chance I need three of them win. [SPEAKER_01]: This is going to be a blast. [SPEAKER_02]: This is what, eight PM Eastern on ESPN.
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep. [SPEAKER_02]: APM Eastern on ESPN. [SPEAKER_02]: Everybody get excited. [SPEAKER_01]: So that'll do it for this episode of The Just Space Ball Show. [SPEAKER_01]: Jack McBullin, I am Peter Outwell, hopefully everybody enjoyed it, especially the first round recap of the arm and jack and the best way to support The Just Space Ball Show.
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