Don't Miss This And Get Left Behind

Iran is firing upon ships, seizing vessels. This seems like it should be a big deal, but the market doesn't care. Investors don't care. The market continues to go up. The Nasdaq's up another one point three percent. The S P five hundred is up almost a percent today, and even the Dow Jones is racing back up. And this follows a certain theme of investors seeming complacent or distant or

oblivious to what's going on in the rest of the world. Even when the news is putting the war front and center in every single article, every update, investors simply don't care anymore.

And we'll be discussing it. We also have Tom Lee giving his take on why the market's going to race up the rest of this year. He believes it's going to be some of the best months we've seen. We'll be looking at all of that. Plus, we have a lot of other news to get into. Moody's just reported their earnings. We have the results. Google, the AI chipmaker, in direct competition with Nvidia, came out with their latest design. Meta is capturing employees' mouse movements, keystrokes.

every single movement they do on a computer to train their AI data. And in this week's fail of the week, we're gonna be highlighting Anthropic, who somehow allowed a few guys on Discord to hack mythos. Remember that AI model that was all powerful and could exploit critical systems and infrastructure? Yep, a couple guys on Discord hacked the entire system. Now to start things off, we take a look at this massive recovery, not just in your portfolio, not just in mine,

But in the entire market. When we look at the Nasdaq 100, for example, starting in March 30th, it rocketed up to the 17%. That's 17% in only three weeks. We can also look at the SP 500 that same day we have March 30th, and stocks are up 12% since that dip. If only there was someone that pounded the table and said today's the day to buy on March 30th. But I believe that today actually represents one of the best times to buy stock.

And you may say, Joseph, how did you know? Was it just a lucky guess? Was there anything that gave it away? And there's a couple things that we can look at. During the exact time period that I published this video and the days preceding it, I saw an increase of negative Nancy's in the comments.

Many people that were frightened about the war, many people that thought that it was gonna go out of control, many people that hate Donald Trump, thinking he's gonna destroy the stock market and the economy. the oil's gonna spike and things are gonna get worse in the future. I had not seen sentiment shift that negatively ever before my channel in such a short period of time. In fact, ironically, this wasn't the biggest dip that we've ever seen. It was only a nine percent dip.

But the sentiment that followed in this nine percent dip was incredibly negative. I could just feel it. I could feel it in my bones how negative people were being. And that to me is a clear giveaway. In most cases, when everybody else is convinced that things can only get worse, that it's only downhill from here,

that is when things actually start to turn around. The market is misleading. It plays games with you. But one of the most tried and true strategies is continuing to buy high quality companies when there's fear. CNN's Fair and Greed index that measures social sentiment measured that march thirtieth was one of the times with the most fair.

In fact, during this time period, they measured it as extreme fare. But here we are with the major indices up eighteen percent only a couple weeks later. Now buying during fair is not enough to have a market recovery. We have to have other ingredients along with it. With this market, we have many.

For example, the Wall Street Journal highlights a couple of different key drivers of this market recovery. One of the first ones they attribute this to is that. The US makes it through troubled times just fine and almost always recovers in a short amount of time. Grizzled investors say that this run-up merely confirms the age-old wisdom of keeping money in the market through turbulence.

Near term threats pale in comparison to a US economy that has weathered through crisis after crisis in recent years, often with the help of Washington. America's massive oil and gas output also shields the US economy from the shocks that boosted inflation and slowed growth. In the nineteen seventies.

Investors believe that Washington adapts and implements policies to help during times of crisis. Indeed, even during this, the United States is using its strategic oil reserves to lower the price of gas during this conflict. And investors are also betting that the US is more insular. From the oil shocks of the past. Investors are also noticing the pattern recognition that buying the dip almost always works. The market's current leap to new records reflects the same impulse to buy the dip.

that propelled stocks during the COVID nineteen pandemic and last year's tariff turmoil. In fact, you can look back during literally any economic crisis, any war or any troubling time during the past and buying the dip, especially when stock prices get cheap. Has always worked out in the benefit of the US investor. Another catalyst that's pushing stocks way up today is this idea that Trump always chickens out.

or the taco trade. Now some people use the term taco to criticize Trump, suggesting that he's a chicken, but this is actually a well-known negotiation strategy. It's called anchoring. You set the first point of a negotiation so high, you highball it, that that's now the anchor point. And then when you back off from those most harsh and extreme plans, Any other compromise seems reasonable. Trump has been known to do this taco trade over and over again. He always comes out with guns ablazing.

the harshest plan. And then things end up settling down and landing in a more moderate area. Investors are assuming this will be the same case here because they've seen it many times in the past. So there's all these various catalysts driving stocks up, and then there's still the skeptics and doubters that warn that the markets are simply just becoming Detached, becoming more risky. They're becoming driven by people with the yellow strategies, momentum chasing, algorithms.

Maybe it's just the buy the dip mentality. Whatever you want to pick, that's fine. But as for me, you'll point out that Joseph always says the same thing. He's always buying stocks. He's always buying high quality companies.

And when the market dips, he leans into'em even a bit more than usual. That's what I've done this time, and it's likely what I'll keep doing in the future. When I look at my combined portfolio, I have a great group of companies, and so far my strategy of always leaning in when there's fear,

has worked out well. Google still remains my top position. This is mostly because of the gains that it's made. It's up a hundred and two thousand dollars. That's one hundred and five percent. MasterCard is a twelve percent position. I've invested a lot in this one, but I'll say that the performance has been Somewhat underwhelming. It's kept up, but it hasn't done exceptional yet. It's only up 12%. Then we have Meta. This one is down four thousand dollars, otherwise two point three seven percent.

I believe that Meta is just getting started. I believe both MasterCard and Meta are strong buys. The next biggest, just barely under meta, is Amazon. Amazon is up twenty-three percent in the past year. It's a sixty-two thousand dollar gain. Otherwise 62% in the green. I think that Amazon's going above$300 per share. ASML is$63,000 or 101% gains. We have SP Global at$20,000 or 19%. We have Netflix at 50,000 or 72%. Netflix would have been higher, but this stock just fell 13% after earnings.

And I believe that it's going to have a full recovery. Another stock that many investors have pointed out, which has fallen into lower valuation territory, is Microsoft. I'm already in the green and I've held Microsoft for a long time, but I agree with the comments. This one is a fantastic buy today. Microsoft likely will have compounded returns above the market going forward. Costco is a massive winner. It's up 133%. That's not counting the big special dividends this one continually pays me.

If you factor those in, it's up substantially more. And this one for me is not a buy. It's simply too expensive, so I'm holding it. When we get into these smaller positions, Moody's Intuit, Texas Roadhouse, and Duolingo. I'm bullish on all of these positions. Moody's just reported earnings. We'll be looking at that in a minute. This one is up 20%.

We have Intuit now down eleven percent with a historically low valuation. I think that this one will make a recovery, but it will take some time to prove that it's not gonna be displaced by AI. We have Texas Roadhouse, which is still doing great. We have Duolingo, which I haven't sold a single share. I'm currently down fifty-five percent or twenty-two thousand dollars.

And Duolingo has held at around one hundred dollars per share. I believe it's finally found a base at least until next earnings report.

And we'll see what happens with this one. But as of now, I remain bullish. Now, with the market rising, there's reason to believe it will continue to go up in the future. Tom Lee recently went on to an interview and highlighted why he believes that

Individual investors weren't actually buying the dip at the lows. Instead, they're now chasing returns. They're buying once the market has already recovered. And he believes that they're gonna chase the returns and force the stock market up much higher.

Most importantly, they didn't buy big tech, which big tech, the QQQ, has recovered far more than even the S P five hundred. Tonley continues to highlight that he sees a lot of hedge funds that ended up buying this dip later on.

You know, it their biggest fear was gasoline spiking and we could get a recession or a depression and a lot of economists warned of that. So I think it was difficult for investors to say we can trust what the administration's doing because there were too many people warning about the tail risk of that.

I believe that AI was the biggest risk. AI's the big boogeyman to be scared of. Not the Iran war or oil prices. So I've had the total opposite view of most individual investors. And as Tom Lee continues to highlight, now it seems like individual investors are starting to chase returns.

When they're looking for the fastest growth, the widest moats, the biggest markets, the most friendly business laws, investors will put money to work back in these companies. If you've already established a large position in these stocks,

You simply just have to wait. And there's many catalysts. Like he mentions, one of them is simply that companies' earnings are actually good. Moody's just reported earnings and things are as good as ever. Moody's emphasizes over and over again that they have what's called decision grade data.

Basically, when you're making decisions about what you should do with millions or hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, you don't want to base these large decisions with large amounts of money off of clawed dashboards that were spun up five minutes ago with lots of hallucinations. You need to know that the data that you're making these decisions on is perfect.

And Moody's with SP Global provide perfect data. It is decision grade data. It's data that's consistent and reliable. It is data that comes with the names Moody's and SP Global. And that's important when you're a large institution working with large amounts of money. So even in their analytics business, the one that's supposedly supposed to get disrupted by cloud plugins, no disruption has taken place.

In essence, they made literally no changes in the entire year to their expectations for Moody's Analytics. It already seems like investors are coming to terms that the disruption from AI models is not going to be as severe as once expected. And I expect to see that same trend.

throughout the rest of this year. The idea that these companies will be subjugated by Claude is entirely misguided. Now moving on, we get to one of the craziest stories that I've heard recently. This is meta that is apparently starting to capture employee mouse movements and keystrokes. to train AI. Meta is installing new tracking software on US based employee computers to capture mouse movements, clicks, and strokes for the use in training artificial intelligence models.

part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomously. The company told staffers in an internal memo seen by Reuters. The purpose, according to the memo, was to improve the company's AI models in areas where they struggled to replicate how humans interact with computers.

like choosing from drop down menus and using keyboard shortcuts. Quote, this is where all meta employees can help our models get better simply by doing their daily work. So basically Meta's tracking everything that their employees do on work computers. Now tracking work computers is not something exactly new. This has been done before. Many companies track what's on your computer. They have certain firewalls for safety.

They also have things to make sure that you're at least on your computer. You know, you're not taking a three-hour lunch break. That's not exactly new, but what is new is how in-depth this tracking is. They're tracking every mouse movement, every single click, every keystroke, and they're even taking screenshots of the screen incrementally to learn about how humans behave with computers.

Now Meta has said specifically that this data will not be used for performance reviews, but that's a little tough to believe. They're not going to be looking at any of this data anytime they make decisions for layoffs. We know that Meta is already wanting to lay off some of their employees. Just a couple of days ago, Meta said that they're laying off eight thousand employees.

We know they're already wanting to cut down. Another thing that I think could be happening here is self-filtering. And if employees know that they're now being monitored and they're now gonna have every keystroke and every frame of their computer monitored.

Many of them may end up quitting as a result. And that's a way for Meta to essentially do layoffs without as much drama and without as much payout. If employees willingly and voluntarily quit the company, that works in the benefit of a company that's already planning on layoffs. And then finally, I do believe that Meta does have a rationale for training data. For example, Meta has likely scraped everything they can with all the properties they can.

But there really is nothing that they can scrape where it has someone interacting with their computer in the very way that employees do working at the company. So this is a unique data set that Meta has that other companies don't. So in almost any case, this does work out to the advantage of meta. If employees quit, they're already wanting to do layoffs. They're obtaining a massive, unique proprietary data set that not many companies in the world have that they can better their AI models.

And if it does make their work more effective, where employees truly can have the majority of work done by AI and they can simply monitor and manage, that would also be to the advantage of Meta. Now next up we get to Google. Google has clearly grown and evolved into a full on AI chip company.

They're now unveiling their new chips for AI training and inference in the latest shot at NVIDIA. They say in the age of AI agents, models must reason through problems, execute multiple step workflows, and learn from their own actions in continuous loops. This places a new set of demands on infrastructure.

and TPU eight and TPU eight I were designed in partnership with Google DeepMind to take on the most demanding AI workloads and adapt to evolving model architecture at scale. They state that by customizing and co designing silicon with hardware, Networking and software, including model architecture and application requirements, we can deliver dramatically more power efficiency and absolute performance.

And this is the same type of thing that many of these big tech companies have said before. Andy Jassy, for example, which they have their own chips as well, and Amazon has become a massive chipmaker as well, has stated that people don't just want faster chips.

They want better price performance. Now Google doesn't even mention that they're trying to get rid of NVIDIA or disrupt NVIDIA. So the article headline here is a bit of a narrative saying that this is a shot at NVIDIA. But I believe that this narrative is correct. Whether or not Google is saying that they're going after NVIDIA, this clearly has implications for NVIDIA. NVIDIA has been the king of GPUs, which means that NVIDIA is good at everything when it comes to chips.

Their chips are just frankly unbeatable. They are great at everything. They are the best, and they have incredible demand, that is true. But what NVIDIA also has is high margins. Very, very high margins. Companies like Amazon and Google are paying hundreds of billions of dollars to NVIDIA. They have a huge degree of incentive to reduce that input cost to their business. And what they're doing is brilliant.

Google and Amazon are not trying to beat Nvidia at its own game. They're not creating GPUs that are great at everything. They're going for this specialized chip. The chips that aren't good at general processing, they're good at one particular part of processing that happens to be in high demand. These are purpose built architecture training and inference. They're there for massive inference workloads. Several years ago, we anticipated the rising demand for inference.

The TPU 8i is designed with more memory bandwidth to serve the most latency sentence inference workloads. Hypercomputers bringing together purpose-built hardware, open software with inference. Google and Amazon are making a coordinated bet that they don't need to go for general processing. They need to make purpose-built chips that are really, really cost-effective on inference. And by doing so, they can attack NVIDIA's margins specifically on inference chips.

They can move workloads over. In essence, Google and Amazon are building the good enough chips to have the huge majority of customers at least consider moving a portion of their demand over to it. NVIDIA will remain the king of GPUs, the king of processing units. Nothing can beat them. And for the very best, latest and greatest models, those customers will need

Nvidia. But for everyone else, this is going to be an attractive offering. Now finally we get to the fail of the week, which in this case is Anthropic. Remember when Anthropic, a couple weeks ago, announced a new AI model called Mytho?

Now keep in mind that Anthropic has stated that Mythos is capable of identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities, quote, in every major operating system and every major web browser when directed by a user to do so. As a result, the company has taken pains to ensure that the technology is only available to a select batch of software providers through an initiative called Project Glasswing.

So after hyping how dangerous this thing is, how it can bring the whole internet down, the whole system, all the biggest companies and web browsers down. The whole model got released to a couple of people that never it was never intended to be in their hands in the first place.

So how did that happen? The users are part of a private Discord channel that focuses on hunting for information about unreleased models. To access Mythos, the users made an educated guess about the model's online location based on knowledge about the format Anthropic has used for other models.

So basically they just looked at the naming convention of how Anthropic was naming their their different access points, and they just guessed that they would use the same naming convention for their future models. They went to that URL and there, there you go. They have the model. Now, luckily, for the good of the world, this group is interested only in playing around with the new model.

not wreaking havoc with them. So this is one of the the biggest messes that I've seen. Anthropic literally raised the alarm of how dangerous this model was, how it could collapse the whole system, and how they were taking Advanced security measures just to make sure that companies knew how to patch all these problems before the model was released.

And the entire time they're doing this media tour, talking about how powerful their model is and how dangerous it is, a couple guys on Discord had access the entire time. And they gained access because of a naming convention. That's apparently how tight anthropic security really is, and that's the reason that today they are the fail of the week. That's all for this episode. See you in the next one.