EP198 - Holiday Forecasts

EP198 - Holiday Forecasts

A weekly podcast with the latest e-commerce news and events. Episode 198 covers the 2019 holiday forecasts, store visits, and news.

Reviews

Jason & Scot both received the new Apple AirPods Pro and the Amazon Echo Buds.  Both liked the Apple product better.  Echo buds had better noise cancelation, but an inferior fit/design, poor microphone, and a case that’s too big for a pocket.

Trip Reports

• Nordstrom NYC Flagship
• Amazon Bookstore remodels and FourStar
• Showfields
• Macy’s new Story display 
• Starbucks Pickup Only location

News

• Gap CEO, Art Peck steps down 
• Sears Closing 96 more stores, leaving 182 Sears and Kmart stores 
• Barneys Liquidation
  • Assets – Great American Group and Tiger Capital Group
  • IP – Authentic Brands, will be licensed to Saks Fifth Ave
• Profitero Price Study (Amazon is price leader)
• Shopify – Adds an Email ESP
• First Insight Study “Amazon Past it’s Prime” – Pretty silly methodology (stated preferences of 1000 people), don’t put too much stock in it.

Holiday Forecasts

NRF

Nov-Dec excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurant

3.8% – 4.2% over 2018 to a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion (vs 2.1% last year, or 3.7% last 5 years).

AlixPartners

November-January

Total Retail increase of 4.4% to 5.3% 

Deloitte:

November – January

Total sales are expected to exceed $1.1 trillion 

Total Retail 4.5% to 5% rise in 2019 (vs. 3.1% last year)

Digital $144-$149B 14-18% growth (up from 11.2% in 2018)

Kantar

Oct-Dec

Total Retail 3.8% (vs. 3.1% last year)

Online 14% vs 10.8% last year

Salesforce

November 1 to December 31

Digital revenue growth this holiday season at 13% YoY to 4136B

Hub: https://www.salesforce.com/solutions/industries/retail/holiday-insights

Adobe

Nov-Dec

14.1% increase online (totaling $143.7B)

MetaForecast (summary of the forecasts):

14.25% Online  (range is 13-18%) 

4.35% Total Retail (range is 3.7% – 5.3%) – last yr was 2.1%

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Episode 196 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday November 7th, 2019.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.