Belligerent Butterfly Beliefs: Ghost Mountains and Business Blind Spots

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This week's Thursday Thought is called Belligerent Butterfly Beliefs, Ghost Mountains, and Business Blindspots. It begins with two quotes. The first by Peter Drucker goes, The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it is to act with yesterday's logic. The second is by the inimitable Bertrand Russell. In all affairs, it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.

Why they are relevant will become obvious over the next seven minutes. Enjoy. Monarch butterflies are famous for their awe inspiring migration from Canada to Mexico, a journey that spans multiple generations. What's particularly intriguing about their trek eastward detour they take as they pass over Lake Superior. This odd deviation is a relic from an ancient migratory route that once guided them around a mountain, one that has long since eroded away.

Despite the mountain's disappearance, the butterfly's genetic memory, a legacy passed down through countless generations compels them to follow the same path, turning eastward over a lake where the mountain used to be.

The perils of unquestioned mental models. Mental models can be good because they allow us to process information and make decisions quickly. However, very strong mental models can hinder active thinking and the adoption of new ideas because they act as filters that screen incoming information. It is therefore essential that we routinely question our mental models.

Konstantinos Markidis Mental models, those deeply ingrained frameworks that shape how we perceive and interpret the world, can become powerful barriers to change. When a particular approach or business model has been successful, it becomes even more difficult to let go. These models act like phantoms in the mind, much like the monarch's eastward turn, persisting long after their original purpose has faded.

The story of the monarchs is a perfect metaphor for this human tendency to hold on to old, familiar patterns. While their ancient migration route once led them safely around an obstacle, today it sends them unnecessarily off course. Likewise, many businesses continue to follow outdated strategies and practices because this is the way it's always been done, even when the environment has changed dramatically.

Just as monarchs instinctively follow a now obsolete migratory path, organizations too can get trapped in old habits. Corporate rituals, policies, and best practices often live long beyond their original usefulness. Codified into processes and rule books. Managers pass these lessons down from generation to generation, without ever questioning their relevance to current conditions. What's particularly dangerous is that organizations often don't realize they're stuck.

The mental models that once worked so well now serve as blinders, filtering out new ideas that don't fit the old narrative. This inertia stifles innovation and leaves companies vulnerable to disruption.

Blockbuster, a case study of clinging to the old. The deeply encoded lessons of the past that are passed from one generation of managers to another pose two dangers for any organization. First, individuals may, over time, forget why they believe what they believe. Second, managers may come to believe that what they don't know isn't worth knowing. A failure to appreciate the contingent nature of corporate beliefs afflicts many companies.

Yesterday's good ideas become today's policy guidelines and tomorrow's mandates. Industry conventions and accepted best practices assume a life of their own. Gary Hamel. One of the most notable examples of a company's failure to reframe its mental models is Blockbuster. In the early 2000s, John Antioco. then CEO, recognized the need to shift away from the traditional rental model, which relied heavily on late fees.

He introduced Total Access, a hybrid service combining online DVD rentals and in store returns to compete with Netflix's digital first approach. Antiocho's attempt was an effort to scrub the windows of Blockbuster's assumptions and update the business model for the new digital era. However, Blockbuster's reliance on late fees and its franchise based physical store model hindered this shift.

Activist investor Carl Icahn, more focused on short term profitability, opposed Antiocho's strategy and pushed for cuts rather than digital investments. These internal conflicts, Coupled with the financial pressures of the 2008 downturn, created a perfect storm that stifled the company's ability to embrace a new mindset.

After Antiocho was ousted, Blockbuster doubled down on its old ways under the leadership of Jim Keyes, a retail expert who focused on physical stores rather than the digital transformation that was necessary. Instead of moving forward, Blockbuster reverted to its old model. Unable to fully recognize that the world had changed. The company's ultimate collapse stands as a stark reminder of the dangers of clinging to outdated business models and failing to reframe mental models in time.

Lessons from nature. Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while or the light won't come. Alan Alda, often misattributed to Isaac Asimov. We can learn much from the monarch's misguided migration. While instinct and tradition have their place, survival in a changing world requires adaptability.

Businesses must develop the ability to scrub the windows of their assumptions and mental models, as Alan Alda suggested, to let in the light of new ideas and perspectives. Like the Monarch Butterflies following an obsolete migratory route, Blockbuster followed its traditional model to the point of extinction, despite clear signs that the environment had changed.

Antioco's total access was an attempt to alter course, but internal resistance and a reluctance to abandon the old ways ultimately led to the company's failure. The Monarch Butterfly's eastward detour teaches us that without questioning our assumptions, we may go in the wrong direction. The ability to reframe, to question old patterns and rituals, is essential for growth, innovation, and survival in an ever changing world.

Conclusion. The ability to adapt and evolve is critical in today's rapidly changing business landscape. By recognizing and challenging our ghost mountains, those outdated mental models and practices that no longer serve us, the ability to adapt and evolve is critical in today's rapidly changing business landscape. We can unlock new possibilities, drive innovation, and ensure our continued success.

Just as the monarch butterfly would benefit from adjusting its migratory route, organizations must be willing to reevaluate their ingrained patterns and embrace new directions to thrive in the face of change. Join us in scrubbing assumptions and reframing our mental models at the Reinvention Summit in Dublin on April 29th to 30th, 2025.