Will Iran make a deal?

Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there, and of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Glory and even Grace America. I'm doing you a live in relief Factor at Studio West. I had just wrapped up talking to Aviv Reddi Gore.

You asked me, if President Trump doesn't boond you, what happens can be compared to President Obama. I want to be very clear about this, and I don't want to step into American politics, and I don't know half the topics that are setting American politics on fire.

I'm going to say, just in the.

Context of the irong issue, nothing President Trump Trump does with Iroan will ever bring him down to the level of the disaster that the j CPI represented.

The fact that the j CPI said that they can.

You know, inspectors can always go anywhere, but then there was a twenty four hour period where they would have to have a consultation over whether they would go anywhere. The fact that it didn't concern the ballistic missile program, the fact that it released fifty to one hundred billion dollars for the IRGC, which we're invested in it because Bella just to the signing bonus. The fact that most of the major provisions ended by now would have already ended history continued ten years.

Fifteen years, is just kicking the can down the road.

That is not President Trump. President Trump has already caused more damage Tofordo said, back to that program, more than all the President Obama's deals ever could.

And so no, even if Trump, in my view, for example, he hasn't.

But even if I decide that he screwed this up and didn't do the right thing. He will still have been much better on this issue than President Obama, who has a lot to answer for. He has thirty seven thousand Iranians to apologize.

Too, well said, and I will that's the end of the interview. That was a little tack on to the interview, but I wanted to start today's show. We'll play the interview in our three today. But because we timed it for that, we got a lot to do earlier than that, beginning with what President Trump said on Air Force one last night. But the big question today is what is

Help being a work where you're picking it right now.

For for money if you work or I.

Have madam spending on what you want to do.

I mean, I certainly can't tell you that, but we do have very being powerful ships and hitting of that direct issue.

I can't tell you of the media, but I.

Hope they negotiate something that's accepted.

A lot of big, powerful ships heading that way. But I can't tell you what they're going to do. This morning he talked to Dan Scavina, who's back on his podcast, Cut number seventeen.

The rig estate, but we just stopped that and what we did with it, and don't forget I got Solimani, I got al bag Daddy in my first term. Two of the the worst ever, the worst seven, the biggest of the worst. One was the founder of vices.

He was rebuilding it.

I took him book.

And the other one was the.

Father of the roadside mom and the lead of Let me tell if he lived, he was a leader, the military leader of Ran. If he lived, that attack that we made on Iran would.

Not have been the same thing.

He was a great general and they don't have that name. He also went on to talk on our fourt one about a number of different subjects. Let's play him right now. Cut number three. As he's talking about protesters attacking federal agents.

Of protests.

What did you mean when you said people will suffer an equal reader a possible.

If they do anything bad to our people, they will be they will have to suffer.

I'm sorry.

If they start.

Spitting in people's faces, watching our people, watching our soldiers or patriots, they will get taken care of in at least an equal way. They're not going to.

Do that, like you know, you see it the way they treat our people.

And I said, you're allowed if somebody does that, you can do something back. You know, going to stand there and take it. If somebody spits in your face, that will not be a pleasant thing for the person that's face. We're not letting people spit in our soul, in his face as they stand at attention.

And they're aren't allowed to do anything.

If they throw bricks at a car and you know, one of our very expensive vehicles, they're going to be met with.

Very very serious words. I believe him.

And by the way, spinning is an assault and battery. So they have the right to take them into custody. Cut number four on Air Force one, telling you about China and Canada. I'm going to.

Canada's here, sir, that you talked about her that was coming well, that was on the airplege.

You're talking about about the China deal of people.

Look, if they do a deal with China, yeah, they'll do something very substantial because we can't look and have a great relationship with China person achieve and we don't want China to take over Canada. And if they make the deal that he's looking to make, China will take over Canada. And the first thing they're going to do and ice hockey.

He does not want China to take over Canada. I think even my Canadian friends agree with him on that. Last night, last clip Cuba. Donald Trump talks about Cuba on Air Force one last night, cut number six.

We're starting to talk to cub Yeah, we're starting. He tells you if they need help, what a humanitarian basis that we're starting to talk to Cuba.

I would look, if we get a lot.

Of people that live in our country treated very badly by human and we want them to be They all voted for me, and we want them to be treated well. Would like to be able to have them go back to vote to their country, which they haven't seen the family they country for many, many decades. So we were about I'll be able to work.

What's going on with Cube is that they're out of everything. They have no energy, no economy, blackout. They're like Iran, they're falling apart. Uh, we might have to push Iran, we don't have to push Cuba. Cuba is falling apart now. Former Secretary of State Mike BOMPEII was on Channel thirteen News in Israel and had this to say about a potential deal with Iran.

I've heard it talks about a deal or there's no chance.

I've dealt with this regime.

They may agree to something, but they've broken every deal they've ever signed up for, including the superd deal we got into under President Obama for the nuclear deal, right, they were violating at the very day that was signed. I don't see that that will actually create the opportunity that I think creates prosperity and security.

Here in the region, and that'd be great for America too.

So you think that taking old circumstances United States need So I talk to you ran again, We'll need.

To put more pressure on. There are many tools by which one can do that.

But it cannot be the case that the Iranian people who took all the risks that they took and went to the streets to do something that was in America's best interest as well. There's no way to get americasecurity and keep our young men and women from having to fight and die in this region so long as the Ayatola is in charge.

So do you see a scenario whereas in the current situation, the United States will not attack militarany.

Sure, sure, the Iranian people may rise up again and there may be no need for such a thing, right. I mean, it's possible that someone in the besiege, some general, some higher GC official will decide they're not going to kill their cousins, They're not going to kill their family members anymore. I mean, this is Iranians killing Iranians. We all want peace, but we also know that you can't have peace in this region so long as the Ayatola.

Is in charge.

And then General Jack Kane on Fox News with Gillian Turner cut number fifteen from yesterday, Well, it is no.

Doubt about that I mean, listen, the history of our presidents with this regime is really something. Seven of the presidents, not counting President trumpet dealt with this regime. Three of them did not retaliate after they killed scores of Americans. Three presidents, two Republicans, one Democrat, All seven of them, during their tenure let the Iranian regime grow and increase

I believe he didn't take that opportunity too. I don't know anything. People think I talked to the president. I don't. I talked to the President on air on the record. He doesn't call me up and ask my advice, and I wouldn't tell you if he did, but he doesn't. And people who talk about talking to the president usually talking through their hat. So I like to be very

Free Leader today that that U hat could start a regional war, giving you funks.

That boy wouldn't be sit she would to say that.

But we have the biggest worst offleships in the world.

Over there, very close a couple of days that hopefully we'll make a deal.

We don't make a deal, then we'll.

Find out whether or not he was ready.

Welcome back, America, And here you are joined by doctor Michael Orrin, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States, head of the Israeli Advocacy Group, Ambassador Orren, Welcome back. I don't believe there's a deal to be had here because I don't believe the IATOLA and the IRGC will give up their missiles or their nukes. And how long do you think it will take to get to that point?

Not too far, not too long.

Let's go back to last, oh, last February, when during a visit of the Prime Minister mess Now to the White House, President Trump announced that he would be opening direct negotiations with the ir Adians and he gave me a deal, basically said no en Richmond zero and Richmond, the ir Adians sort of twisted.

His tail for a long time, and then they found out, you can't do that with this president.

You maybe do that with some previous presidents, but not with this one. And they've learned the hard way. The question is have they internalized that lesson? Do they feel they have the upper hand in this negotiation. And I'll

When you can actually make an impact. That's a lot of pressure on the president.

There's domestic pressures on the president as well, and the need to build up those forces.

Now.

I know the President has talked about a giant armada in the Middle East, but right now there's one aircraft carrier there, plus assortment of destroyers and bombers. But keep in mind Biden has sent two aircraft carriers to them, at least the fourth in the Eisenhower.

So you got one aircraft effort, the Abraham Lincoln. You really need some more.

An aircraft carrier carries about I think about ninety planes, about seventy of them are our attack plans. And that's to take on a country of ninety million people with an army of about one point five million people.

It's a hard it's a hard, hard pull at the pull that that through.

So you have to build up those fourvices even more. And you always have to be worried about the Sheffield factor. Do you remember this, you were old enough together. Remember the Falklands War nineteen eighty.

Oh yes, a lucky shot, lucky shot, a lucky shot.

They fired an Exo set, a French made ex Visil that hits the HMS Sheffield and cause the largest damage to a British warships in World War Two. You gotta get missiles flying at American warships from the Hoodies, from the Syrian and RAQI about rebels Assyrian Iraq from and of course from Iran itself, which has a very large drone and missile capability.

So if you go down that route of.

A military option, you got to make sure you have that massive build up in the Middle East.

And from what I can gather here, it's not there yet.

What I read in the journal yesterday, and I'm using open sources. Only I don't know anything. Is that all the F fifteen's we can gather are there, and they're good for the drones and some missiles. Our every FAD battery we've got is on its way there or already there. And that's to protect primarily Saudi Arabia and UAE, not Israel.

I don't understand why they say regional war. Where does region come into this. Who's going to join Iran at this point? What friends do they have? In the world truly enough, the Chinese, not the Russians. There's nobody in the Middle East, so it's not a regional war. You're going to have terrorist organizations like the booties, like the terrorists, and Syria and Iraq firing missiles.

That is not a regional war.

And you know, for Israel perspective, we have to be very careful of course, to the charge that we're trying to push the United States into a war.

But Israel has an interest, and the interest has to be stated is this.

It's not just eliminating Iran's nuclear program or eliminating its its enrichment capabilities, but we need to eliminate the missile capabilities, which are huge, and to stop grand support for terrorism throughout the Middle East and indeed the entire world.

Entire world.

I think Britany says regional war, he means hitting Saudi Arabia, and I think I don't think Israel isn't as much is as vulnerable as Saudi Arabia as do you.

I do, And I think the President has to make a call because Saudi Arabia is saying that it's not going to let its airspace be used by American aircraft. Okay, so I know it seems to me the deals you've cut two ways. We'll defend you if you're willing to support us. But that's a call I guess that the White House has to make. It's a tough one. But Israel will be there, and you're talking about a very formidable air force that has succeeded in penetrating Iran's nuclear

That's huge.

It takes down not just a building, a take down a neighborhood. But they're going to have a limited number of launchers. So if they don't launchers, those ballistic missiles are worth nothing. Are on the ground. So if we know who the launchers are and we can hit them very very quickly, then Iran is literally literally a sitting duck.

Okay, one question before the break. I'd like to hold you over to ask you about Turkey after the break. The question before the break has to do with how much damage one or two of those ballistic missiles can do to Israel. Can they get near the most sensitive parts of Israel.

Well, the assumption here is that Iran during the last war and last June fired mostly at military targets. Sometimes they missed in his civilian targets, including two very near my house, and at this time they would aim for civilian targets.

And those missiles are so large.

A Jamas rockets Buller rocket carries between fifteen and twenty kilograms of TATS. This is ten times as powerful. And many of us, as you know, have safe rooms within our house. Those rate rooms become almost ineffective in defending us against those type of missiles because they take down, as I said before, not just an apartment, They take down a.

Building and even a name. They're huge, and so we have to move.

Very very swiftly to interdict them, and particularly to destroy those launchers.

That's why I think the FADS have to get there. The high altitude interceptors along with your arrow too. When I come back, I'm going to ask doctor Oran about what I talked with Vive reddy Gore about, which is Turkey. Stay tuned, welcome back to me. I'm Hugh hewittt back

So.

What does doctor Michael Ran think?

And I deeply respect and admire both Dan and Aviv. I'll take them middle line and that is yes, Turkish influence will increase markedly in Syria.

You have a former al Qaeda leader there Al Shara, who's going.

To be close to the Muslim brotherhood outlook of mister Iridiwan president of.

Turkey. But keep in mind that the Turks are not the Iranians, and Irwan is.

Not Kameeni ha Many is viewed as a religious spiritual leader, not just a political leader by by the world of Shiism. By Shiites wherever they are, what they're in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iraq. Iran does not is not a spiritual figure. He is a political leader, and moreover, he doesn't command that type of allegiance from Sunni Arabs and Syria being mostly Sunni. But beyond that, Ian has other has another facet to him. He's not just a Muslim brotherhood Islamist.

Turks to come back. He lives in that illusion. It's not true. No one is actually yearning.

For the return of the Ottoman Empire anywhere in the least that I know of, And so his influence will not be as profound as for say, Hamenies was in Lebanon through his Blah with Shiite majority or the largest largest ethnic community in Lebanon where Shiite, or in Iraq where Shiites are in the majority, or in the Gulf A certain countries do have a shit majority, it's not the same magnitude of threat. There's also been problems historically between the leadership in Ankara and the Turkish army.

They don't trust one another.

Occasionally Irduwano will conduct very large scale, painful purges of his own military. And I think if you look over historically over the last fifty sixty years, the Turkish army, though it is very, very powerful and very well armed, has generally underperformed and there's a reason for that.

So you're not worried about Al Shara starting a war with Israel armed with Turkish weapons.

First of all, I don't know what Turkish weapons are, so generally NATO weapons they are, and that'll be and keeping by the early one is also a member of NATO, and that's also a check on him. You know, he plays around with NATO, He gets some Russian anti aircraft systems.

And tries to play both sides. At the end of the day, A check there with you.

Large military military American military basis in Turkey. America didn't have large military bases in Iran. So no, I'm not concerned about I am concerned about expanding Turkish influence not just in Syria but elsewhere in the release.

How about Gaza for example.

Uh And we have to work to make sure that we're not replacing the Iranian access of resistance with the Turkish hamas Katari access of resistance.

So no, I'm not worried, but we have to be on our guard.

Doctor Michael Horn always good to talk to you. Thank you, Mornerglorian even Grace America. I'mh you and and the Relief Actor Studio West joined by Bethany Mandel. Bethany is our weekly guest for the perspective of the mom wors dot substack dot com. That's her substact, the Momworth dot substact

I think that it's potentially a watershed moment. When so I wrote a book called Stolen Youth with Carol Markowitz, came out almost exactly three years ago and the doctors and clinicians that I spoke to who had real misgivings on an ethics standpoint with gender identity stuff with kids.

So do you have any data yet? And I don't have any way of figuring this out. I thought maybe you would have the insurance company stopped covering doctors who perferend hospitals that allow transitioning surgery, because once they stop writing policies for those doctors, those doctors stop doing those procedures, don't have to wait for judgments. Now there's a judgment, Now there is risk.

So it's funny that you asked that. I actually asked someone today in fact that question, and the jury is still out because the jury just came back. So the jury is still out on the insurance companies. But because of the Trump administration, there's been a lot of movement on this front from states and from Medicaid, and so state after state, Utah was the most recent have said this is not happening.

And I think Bethany Froze movement. Yeah, you're back, go ahead. We lost your last thirty seconds, Bethany, Oh, I'm sorry.

So this is it's a good start on the Medicaid front. A lot of states have stopped stopped doing this because Medicaid is not paying for this anymore thanks to the Trump administration, and a lot of states have also said this won't be happening in our teaching hospitals anymore. And so Utah was the most recent example of a state that said this is not happening in our hospitals anymore. So the private insurance front, I think that's coming. I think there's probably going to need to be a few

As a Roman Catholic, it's painful for me to bring up this example, but many, many dioceses in the United States are bankrupt because of abuse that was known and not corrected. The same thing is going to happen to many many hospitals and many many doctors because the statute of limitations will be extended based upon the fact that they operated in bad faith, in other words, without science. They were doing guinea pig experiments on kids, and they're going to pay the price.

I think that you're mostly right, but my only concern is that there was a there was an interest on the part of a lot of people in the legal field to bring down the Catholic Church, and I don't think that there's that eagerness in existing on this issue. This judgment was only two million dollars, which I do

It depends on how many victims and the jurisdiction. Because California, for example, has a cap on pain and suffering, many states don't, and so where the victim of transitioning wants to sue will make all the difference. There are gonna be a lot of lossuits in California because of the cap, but there are some places where the cap doesn't exist. Now, Bethany, I want to ask you, just nobody knows what's going to happen when they're on Everybody's guessing. I've talked with

I mean, my tea leaves. I'm reading our President Trump's statements, and his statements are pretty clear to me. I think you know, when President Trump Trump speaks, you have to listen. And he's made pretty clear that if they don't come to the negotiating table and that they don't stop killing the protesters, there will be hell to pay. He didn't use that phrasing exactly again this time, but he made clear there would be consequences, and so I believe him well.

He said to that we should let's play air force one last night. The most recent comment cut number one on a ran.

As a free leader today said that he puts part of regional war.

Give you find that Roy, wouldn't he say that.

I'd appreciated to say that. But we have the biggest rosabe offleships in.

The world over there very close a couple of days.

That hopefully we'll make a deal. We don't make a deal, then we'll find out whether or not he was right.

So what ha Many said is he'll start a regional war, and what the President said is we'll find out if he's right the Iranians or not. How Many is not going to give up his missiles in his uranium. He's not going to do it. So that means Trump's going to strike, and I think he means we'll see if he can do. I think in such a way that they will be incapacitated. I don't rule out what Dr Orange is called the Sheffield factor, which is a lucky shot by Iran that hits an America destroyer or a

Yeah, I do, I do, And I think that that's exactly what President Trump was just saying. He was he was kind of saying. He shrugged his shoulders kind of

I would like you to hear as well, what havev Reddy Gore had to say about President Trump and President Obama? Because I asked Aviv, how if President Trump doesn't do anything, does that make him into President Obama. Here's his response. You're gonna say about President Obama.

You asked me, if President Trump doesn't boond me wrong, what happens can be compared him to President Obama. I want to be very clear about this, and I don't want to step into American politics, and I don't know half the topics that are setting American politics on fire. I'm want to say, just in the context of the wrong issue, nothing President Trump Trump does with I wrong will ever bring him down to the level of the

We're invested in it because Bella just to the signing bonus.

The fact that most of the major provisions ended by now would have already ended history continued ten years, fifteen years, is just kicking the can down the road.

That is not President Trump.

President Trump has already caused more damage to Forde said back that program more than all the President Obama's deals ever could.

And so no, even if Trump, in my view, for example, he hasn't. But even if I.

Decide that he screwed this up and didn't do the right thing, he will still have been much better on this issue than President Obama, who has a lot to answer for. He has thirty seven thousand Iranians to apologize too.

What do you make of that, Bethany?

I had to laugh because his not wanting to wait into domestic politics in America is my policy about domestic politics in Israel. Yeah, and so that cave I appreciated that caveat because I make it all the time too. No, He's absolutely correct there. You could not get any worse than President Obama handing suitcases full of cash, and that's what happened. But I mean, we're in a totally different it's a totally different world than we occupied when President Trump,

Honestly, Well, have you.

Seen any of the Obama bros? You know the Pod Bros or President Obama or anybody associated with the JCPOA in the Senate or the House or the Old Has anyone come forward to say we were wrong, We didn't know that they would kill thirty seven thousand of their own people.

No, No, I mean my signal for is this the right foreign policy move? Literally across the board from Venezuela to Iran, you name it is. If the pod broads think it was about idea, I'm like, well, okay, here we are good barometer.

I got to ask you, I think the world has walked way too quickly passed thirty seven thousand dead Iranians. Do you agree with me about that? I do.

I mean it's hard to know what the numbers are in there, but I mean it's catastrophic, and in the world's silence about whatever it is, it's tens of thousands, whatever it is, is really glaring. Considering how loud they were about the Hamas numbers coming.

Out of Gaza, and you know how traumatized Israel and Israeli and Jews and the diaspora were after ten seven. Do you think Iranians are feeling the same thing that Israeli that we did, Yeah, what do you think I.

Do to some extent.

I mean, unfortunately, there's not the pictures in the videos that really traumatized American Jews and Israeli Jews. After October seventh, the regime have shut down access to these images in these pictures very intentionally. I think they're going to come out eventually, but it's going to be a slow dribble, I think.

And when it does, the one that came out today of the kid holding the door, which a meets Sigal as in his website, I recommend everyone go to a meet Sigal dot net and watch that one video. Bethany Mandel, thank you. Follow on exit Bethany Sean Dark. Senator At Cotton is next on the h view of show Welcome Back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett, joined by Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas as Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Well, even when the government is partially shut down, we are still at work in the Capitol, and I know the House of Representatives is currently deliberating on the bill that we passed Friday evening and hopefully they'll pass that intenant directly to the presence death soon. I know he just put on a call for the House to pass it without delay so he can sign it to Meeba Lea this evening and gave them back to work in the government.

So Sarah, it's on again for a long time.

If DHS is you've got to do a compromise, you will not. I hope the Republicans will not agree to suspend administrative warrants. Otherwise that's the end of deportations. We only have seven hundred district court judges in the United States and some magistrates would do you imagine the Republicans will ever agree to that.

No, I, Hugh, of course not. And you're right that insists on judicial warrants for illegal aliens, which has never been the standard in this country and in fact has been repeatedly rejected by the Supreme Court. It's simply a

Yeah. Do you have the opportunity on this special appropriations last bill for DHS to add laws, for example, could you regularize the Dreamers if you wanted to?

Yeah?

So he was not a reconciliation bill, So there's no special rules something Congress can legislat as we would choose. I can tell you I don't think there's a lot of appetite to address that kind.

Of sweeping reforms.

This is more negotiation about specifically what will happen with immigration enforcements and ICE in particular. I know the Democrats have some demand. Some of those might be reasonable, others like insisting on judicial warrants or that officers removed their masks so they could be docks by left wing lunatics or not. But we have demand as well. We'd like to pass legislation that can federal funding on repealing sanctuary

Well, that's what I'm getting at, is that there must be some things that our offers that they can't refuse. For example, I think dreamers are an eighty twenty issue. I don't know where you are on at center, but people who are brought here at the age of two, or maybe you redefine it lower, so that if you were brought to the country at the age of four and you've been here for thirty year some kind of regularization, non amnesty, they never get to vote. That makes it

Well, I think you you don't have the votes for that if it was combined with additional enforcement measures. Yeah, Branch, it's a ban on sanctuary cities. Again that the Democrats have gone so far to the left of emigration that I'm not sure that they'd be willing to vote forwards. And obviously we're not. The Republicans aren't going to vote on anything like giving even the limited regularizations that people who weren't brought here through no fault of their own.

You see, I if I'm on the Democrats side, the worst thing you could do is offer me the dreamers some subset of Dreamers and a ban on sanctuary cities, because then they're committing political Harry Carey, if they opposed that, because they're going to oppose the Dreamers, and they're going to oppose and they're going to because of sanctuary cities, wouldn't they wouldn't they find themselves torn apart.

Regrettably? I think again the far left is in the saddle in the Democratic Party. I mean, when the DHS bill went through the House of Representatives, I think it only got seven or eight Democratic votes. All the latest class of freshmen Democrats in the Senate voted against the bill as well, with just a two week funding provision

What happens if DHS isn't funded in two week? Center does that mean TSA as well?

Well?

I think this is a very important point for all of your listeners. Who Patty Murray, the senior Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, admitted last week that a government shut down or DHS shut down will do nothing to stop ICE. ICE is a law enforcement agency, it's deemed central. Its officers still be on the streets doing their critical work

So Senator, what I'm saying is that they've walked themselves into a corner. The only thing to shut down at DHS. So that just focuses everybody on immigration. And if the Republicans put eighty twenty issues on the table, they are going to win. The political debate is that like them, you run the conference. Are people thinking about the fact that they're in a they put themselves in a corner.

Well, it maybe the chair of the conference. I'm not sure anyone actually runs it. The editor is ultimately accountable, ultimately accountable to his own voters and back home and zone conviction that the campaigned on. But you're right to you that there are some sensible and very popular immigration compromises. Those have to be paired though with heightened enforcement measures. And it just doesn't seem that's like where the Democratic senators are right now?

Are you going to make it at them at least vote on defunding sanctuary cities. I want them to vote in favor of sanctuaries. I want them on the record one way or the other, because that's an eighty twenty issue, whether they know.

It or not.

I think that can be expected if we get into a situation where we're having votes on this data or the other policy. I have no doubt that Republican senators at least will be very eager to have a vote on ban on sanctuary cities.

Very good. Last question, Senator, President Trump has become President Yoda, I'm not quite sure what he's saying. What do you think is going to happen in Iran?

Well, he what we want to happen is to minimize the oppression and killing of the Iranian people who have risen up against their corrupt xatorial regime. And we want to maximize the pressure that the Iotlas are facing. There's a lot of different ways we can do that, military means, financial names, economic means. But I think we want to keep the pressure on them and try to do everything we can to help the brave running people who are protesting against their erruptatorial regime.

Well, the Iatola said it would lead to regional war. I don't think there's anyone in the region that will help them, right, everyone against Iran, is that what he's suggesting.

And he was blustering about that before he blew up his nuclear facilities as well.

And all he did was effectlessly.

Shoot a few rockets and missiles at our base in Patara while giving us advanced notice that we could clear out. Well, I take what the Itela says that face value.

I do not, sata Tom Cotton remarking thank you for joining me even in the middle of an official government shutdown. I appreciate your still being here during the shutdown. Thank you, Senator Cotton. Don't go anywhere America. I'll be right back. He's not President Yode. He keeps saying the same thing, which is, I hope they negotiate. I hope they take their chance. I hope they don't force my hand. But I think that means they're going to force the President's hand.

Vic?

Hello, Hugh, nice to see you, And yes, the question on a lot of people's minds is what is the schedule of Getting Hammered? We generally now tape on Tuesdays and a new episode comes up on Wednesdays.

All right, that's the schedule, so stay tuned.

Well we should then we should have you on Thursday instead of Monday, and we would talk about but we'll work that out. But vic. I want to guess that you are like me, a center right border hawk and regularization, and by that I mean I want the biggest, tallest double sided wall at the border, and then I want to let all the nice people stay of come over it, nice people. And there are ways to prove that. Am I close to where you are?

Yeah?

I mean you can go back to the eighties and you think about the amnesty that was granted during the ragged administration. I think a lot of Americans, not just you and me, feel that way, and not necessarily people that have to be right of center like both of us.

But he also said that he was going to go around.

The president was going to go around to big cities, in towns looking for people who were here illegally and deport them, and that.

Was by using ice.

And at first, of course, what comes to mind for us are dangerous criminals people here who entered the ten or eleven million illegals during the Bided administration who came into the country. They're parts of you know, MS thirteen or trendy Arragua. Get them out of here. I don't think anybody had a problem with that, and everyone understood that Ice is wearing these masks because they have to protect their identities from these very dangerous people and to

Lot of people.

And I think that's what we're beginning to see a change and a dialing back, certainly after the second shooting by Ice of alex Pretty in this case, and Tom Homan's taking the reins of the situation in Minneapolis, and so hopefully we're turning a corner.

So vic I think that the Democrats have walked themselves into a corner, and by that I mean they're going to defund DHS and TSA and everything else. Let everything else go because they want to end administrative warrants, which the Republicans will never agree to. Ought the Republicans to offer them a deal they can't refuse. Other words, Hey, we're going to end sanctuary cities, and we're going to regularize Dreamers and people over fifty who've been here for

Well, I don't know if there's smart enough to do that, but I think that's definitely what they should be doing.

I mean, obviously there has to be some give and take here.

You know, you've seen these polls coming out, even the Fox News polls, and a lot of people obviously still very feel very strongly and are very supportive of the president's actions along the border. But when it comes to the deployment of ICE in such a broad scale. And it's true the mainstream media have not been giving them a positive portrayal videos that are taken and shared on social media that can be easily taken out of context. It doesn't help their case, but ICE doesn't help their

But that's what makes it very difficult. When you hear people, you know, like.

Jacob Fry saying that I didn't agree to anything that Tom Holman is talking about, but of course this is what we want, I mean, And you hear people, for example, Hugh on the left saying, well, why can't I just go into the jails and just take them there instead.

Of going in public.

And that was obviously the original plan, but without police support, it made their lives very difficult.

Well that's why, maybe I'm just naive. But if the Republicans said, we're going to let the Dreamers stay, people who were brought in under the age of sixteen or fifteen, and they never can vote, but they can stay. And we're going to let people over the age of sixty stay, and other people apply, but you've got to agree to defund sanctuary cities and they don't get any money for anything until they start honoring detainers. Let the Democrats vote

Yeah?

No, I mean I think that's exactly right. You got to put the ball back on their court. I don't know.

I mean, they're in a very delicate situation right now with the partial shutdown, and there's these demands as you mentioned, to.

Defund ICE, but of course ICE is generally funded in the center.

Kind just told me that they're funded for like three years.

Yeah, that's right.

And so what they're asking for now in the sort of they still want to say defund ice the way they wanted to say, you know, defund the police, you know, back in twenty twenty. But what they really want to do now is maybe dial it back and say, well, what we want is more accountability and we want some reforms to ICE. We don't want to defund ice. So that's sort of the fine line they're trying to walk right now. But again that that's going to be very difficult to pull off.

I think, so Vic matis to conclude, I am to look for my next Getting Hammered episode on Wednesday. Is that what you're telling me?

That is correct to you, and I can guarantee you we'll have a good chunk on why a lot of play in the Northeast in the Middle Atlantics.

Have had no school for over like a week, going on a week and a half.

And what do they me.

I know, they're all democratic controlled and there's no accountability. You know, this is the problem when you have you know, it's one party government. My grandkids haven't seen a school in.

Two weeks, and boys, their mom mad so absolutely absurd.

It is it is absurd.

I used to walk through both ways uphill blah blah blah. Schools were open after one day. You got one snow day.

That was it.

Yeah, Vic Madis, what's it? Thank you? Follow him on that to Victor Reno Madis, go sign up for Getting Hammered and I'm going to have Danielle reroute you to Thursdays. I can't talk about the Getting Hammered episode when it comes out. Stay tuned in America. I'm cut Hi, it's you, Hewitt. You've heard me talk a lot about Consumer Celluler, how you can switch your carrier and save money without sacrifice. That's because Consumer Cellular uses the same towers as the

Twenty years? He was the head of the National Security Institute at the university.

He still runs or teaches in their graduate program, and he has advised prime ministers on national security questions since Sharon, since Robbing, since he was a young man, a young analyst.

So what struck me about him is he might be stuck in the past when Turkey wasn't real problem. Did you walk away from that conversation thinking that.

I? In other words, he argued that Turkey is absolutely Israel's currently pre eminent regional adversary, but that there's no danger of actual kinetic war, right, that's what he said.

I yeah, I would say he is.

He is trying to set off alarm bells about Turkey. He's not the only one that that's very clear to Israeli officials.

I buy it.

I buy it.

I buy his argument that if Turkey goes to kinetic war with Israel through the you know, reairly Syrian border, basically Syria is now basically a puppet of Turkey, that that would fundamentally change Israel, fundamentally change Turkey.

It would be an event re ordering, you know, the global.

Landscape, certainly the Middle East, because Turkey has one of the largest armies in the world.

I think it's in the top ten.

A million men under arms, if I'm not mistake, in two thousand tags, a navy three times the size of Israel's navy. But Israel has a much smarter army with better firepower. It has the F thirty five's as most of Turkey's of eighteen's or F sixteens. It would be a disaster, a catastrophe for the region, a catastrophe for both countries.

Really doesn't think Turkey would would check.

They would maybe have an air forces of NATO, maybe overwhelm the Israeli Air Force. The Israeli Defense Air Force is amazing, but Turkey's got a lot of planes that come out in NATO. They don't. I don't think they have the F thirty five because we wouldn't sell it to them because they had the Soviet system. So they're getting rid of the Soviet system. But I was imagining as I listened to you, if they get Al Shara to provoke a fight with you, and then they supply

We've had this question asked about Russia. Russia was the main was a major, major umbrella of that US said that allowed out said to do what he did to Syria, and if I provided him the air cover and intelligence help and really what served as his air force during the Syrian Civil War, and.

Israel desperately didn't want to have.

A military engagement with Russia, with the Russian military, And what ended up happening was Israel and Russia developed very close cooperation and Israel could bomb what it needed to bomb in Syria, and even if it was Asad's own military forces, if they were, for example, helping Iran, you know, ship missiles to Chasbella. Well, Russia helped outside, but didn't touch the Israelis the coordination, it was complicated.

I suspect that that's what will happen if that happens here.

So he did not sound alarmed at the end. I'm very alarmed by what's going on in Syria. Would you guess the average member of both parties leadership left and right, center, left and center right are very alarmed by what's going on in Syria. They're murdering the Kurage we're getting out of there. President Trump does not care about it. What's the level of concern in Israel about al Shara? Yeah?

Absolutely.

You know, the debate over whether he is moderate is a debate with a huge asterisk.

The man is al Kaieda, he was formerly al Qaeda.

I don't think his relationship with his God and his and his Qoran has changed fundamentally. I do think that he has tremendous benefits to be gleaned from being moderate, until he has benefits to be gleaned from not being moderated.

Very similar to aired one.

Aired One is the president of a serious major country, a NATO member. He has a lot of benefits to be gleaned from not becoming, you know, going down the path of Muslim brotherhood in Egypt or in places like Somalia where they demolish their own countries.

But that doesn't you know, but that doesn't mean he doesn't he's not going to ultimately take the country there.

Turkey is not the democracy it was ten years ago, and in ten years from now, it will not be the democracy it is today. And so Turkey is on the decline, will continue to decline, and they're going to try and.

Look moderate the whole time to not create blowback in the system.

So I don't trust the Shara, and Turkey has its way in Syria anyway, and so this needs to start treating Syria I think as part of Turkey and as part of its major regional adversary.

I agree with every word of that. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm gonna come right back with Aviv Reddy Gore. We're gonnask him about Iran in the longer segment today, because of course that's just go listen to the professor and Aviv talk at Ask Aviv anything. Join his patreon by the way, it's the only patreon of which I am a member. I don't actually join in the discussions over there. I just want to keep Aviv producing more. Asked a Viv anything and read him at the Free Press. I'll

Then Iran is desperately trying to avoid anything happening. It has such a huge problem in house. It has lost fundamental legitimacy. It's not just because of the June war, with the war with Israel and of course the American strike on Florida.

It's not just that it has been for about fifteen years.

We've seen public protests that have been escalating, the early protests against the regime. It's a regime in power forty seven years, right, and it has kind of driven the Iranian economy into the dirt. I mean, people should google the Gdpeper capital of Iran. It's third world, even though it sits on some of the largest hydrocarbon reserves on Earth.

Yeah, I've been listening to a book Empire of Evil by Mark Zelensky on the I mean Revolutionary Guard Corps i RGC. They're not going to change. They're going to stay who they are. And we saw who they were on January ninth when they murdered thirty eight thousand people. And I've set people to look at him. Meet Segaal's site today because he has a video of a besie. He's just executing a young man who's holding trying to keep them out. It's like a college kid. He's a

No, they'll They'll never give up anything unless forced to at the last. And they will never change, and they will never release their.

Grip on power.

The only way to get any change in Iran is to have such immense levers of influence over the regime terrify it literally existentially to get it to change. But once you've reached that point where you can terrify it existentially, whant to just make the killing blow. And so the Iranian regime is all it is. It will murder half of Iran on its way down.

It is committed to it.

It is of the kind it's different from Hamas, it's different from Belign some slight ways is very close to it. It's actually basically a branch of the IRGC, but it is of a type with other Islamist organizations like those in the sense that it is utterly suicidal.

It will bring Iranian society.

I agree with that. So I want to tell you what I think is going to happen and have you critique it, which is I think President Trump is waiting for the THAD batteries to deploy in every possible air defense weapon to get to Israel and our other Golf count Cooperation Council allies, and then we're going to begin a campaign to end that regime by bombing, not unlike that that was in Serbia, not unlike that that was in Libya, only this time with better precision, better bombing,

I hope so, Hugh, you talked to the president. I don't talk to the president.

I very much hope that that sense of American intentions is what's going to happen. One of the things that we've seen on Iran from this White House is the ability to do very good misdirection without leaks, very clever. You know, the airplanes are flying in the wrong direction and then suddenly the bomb lands.

We saw that in the attack in June.

So the fact that President Trump's preparing the bomb doesn't necessarily mean he's going to do it. And the fact that and if we see him starting to pull back the forces, that might be the moment he does it. We've already seen him act in those ways, and the Iranians miscalculated several times with him, and so I think now that they're very, very wary and afraid. I tend to agree with you. You know, we've heard from the Saudis a sense of real desperate vulnerability. Iran's ability to

They could.

They could wipe out city blocks in Israeli cities, but they can't do more than that. Whereas their ability to shatter the entirety of the Saudi oil spase and in economy is they have that shorter range, they have many many more missiles. The Arsenal is much larger than their larger range missiles that they need to attack Israel. And so the Saudis are absolutely terrified. And the Saudis are saying, apparently, okay,

When you do it.

And so that what you just described makes perfect sense, And the fact that it's coming from you tells me maybe there's maybe that is If that makes sense to you, that makes sense to me.

Yeah, don't overestimate how much I know. I don't know much. I expected him to go much sooner than this, and then the delay happened. But I the way that I read Trump as he says he and then not a B and then not be and then he does Z. So it's it's completely possible that nothing will happen. But for him to have to risk a comparison with President Obama is I think for him existential political peril and

This is the multi billion dollar question. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. Iranians don't know.

The Iranian regime itself doesn't know who would replace it.

It has spent forty seven years doing nothing but destroying all basis of power that could possibly replace it. There are a great many Iranians apparently, it's hard to measure these things. There's chaos, there's internet blackouts. A great many Iranians are hoping the king, the son of the of the Shaw, returns Raza Palavi, even just in a symbolic role, just as a kind of a kind of you know, totem around which you can organize the rest of politics.

Who has the power to do it? Nobody? And what does that tell you? It tells you that elements of the regime will replace the regime.

Yes, this is a bad thing because what we had, for example in Russia, Russia falls, the Soviet Union falls, and what replaces it is this Yeltsin.

Guy.

Now Yeltin builds out a democracy that isn't really a democracy, it's a klyptocracy that guts the economy and doesn't actually set Russia on a new path toward the competent, serious democracy. And then the return of the Soviet Union in the midst of all that chaos. And if Yeltsin's an ability to run Russia, you basically have a KGB retaking.

To bring order, and that is Putin and his group of about I don't know.

Ten fifteen former KGB colonels who basically have run Russia ever since. And so you could see a kind of de islamized IRGC infrastructure or de Islamized running an army infrastructure, retaking the regime after Now, if that happens, last point, that's not necessarily a terrible thing.

I agree.

A Western oriented dictatorship can democratize.

That's what South Korea's story is all about. That's what many many countries had.

That Argentina, Argentina in Latin America there are a few examples, and so better that than this Islamism that will gut the regime while setting the region on fire roughly every ten years.

I mean, we'll gut the country.

Excuse me, haveviv on that note of agreement. I hope we end up with a military regime that's transitional to democracy, but that might be ten years, provided they give us the missiles and all their glowing material buried under Fodor. We'll check in with you in another month. In the meantime, please keep pumping out, askavieve anything. Today's was magnificent because you're asked. The professor was magnificent, and you asked the right question, and you got excited with him.

He wasn't.

Can I just say go ahead? He's tells me for many years. You asked about Obama. I want to say something about President Trump.

You asked me, if President Trump doesn't bomd me wrong, what happens can be compared to President Obama. I want to be very clear about this, and I don't want to step into American politics, and I don't know half the topics that are setting American politics on fire. I want to say, just in the context of the wrong issue. Nothing President Trump Trump does with I wrong will ever bring him down to the level of the disaster that the j CPI represented.

The fact that the j CPI said that they can you know.

Inspects can always go anywhere, but then there was a twenty four hour period where they would have to have a consultation over whether they.

Would go anywhere.

The fact that it didn't concern the ballistic missile program, the fact that it released fifty two hundred billion dollars for the IRGC, which.

We're invested in it because bla just to the signing bonus.

The fact that most of the major provisions ended by now would have already ended history continued ten years, fifteen years, is just kicking the can down the road. That is not President Trump. President Trump has already caused more damage to Pordo said back that program more than all the

Said, thanks to America and thanks for listening

The huge Joe cowet you from the Relief After Studio, which brought to you by reliefactor dot com