The Uprising in Iran

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Don't you think so? Would you say.

That they probably do at this point after going through it for years with me being hit, salivating out back daddy, the red nuclear threat wiped out? Don't you think? And then you just had Venezuela. Don't you think? She says, CNN, do you think they take your threat seriously? What do you say they do after all of the things.

We have done? What a stupid question.

It really is a stupid question. Of course, they take the threat seriously. That's why they're begging for negotiations, because the president can bring down that regime with three days of air campaign, I mean a concerted effort, maybe with is reel, maybe without. John Fetterman went on CNN and gave his statement, this is the Democratic Center from Pennsylvania cutt number two.

Absolutely, and now if it could and used to make more sense. Absolutely, I think I was the only Democrat that fully supported our strike of their Iranian nuclear facilities last year, and now by then, without those kinds of strikes, Iran could have acquired a nuclear bomb. I think, I hope we can all agree that Iran should have never acquired a nuclear bomb. And Iran is one of the world's top terrorist unwriter. And now you have that poisonous regime now in spiral.

So why wouldn't we want to support that?

And those brave protesters they've killed probably more than six hundred by now, So now why would we want to have the kinds of targeted kinds of action that could break that regime.

There are sources do tel CNN that there are concerns inside the Trump administration though, that taking military action military strikes could actually backfire and undermine the protests by swelling support for the Iranian government. Do you see that?

Yeah, if it makes sense, again, if those strikes make sense, absolutely, I do support those things. You know, I don't know exactly what the conversation is. I'm saying I'm open to that, and I am actually inspired by the real kinds of courage that those protesters in Iran.

Are demonstrated now.

So I don't know why we can't all want to support that to back then and now bring that awful regime, you know, to its knees now.

That's where it's at right now.

They're so desperate now they they killed the internet and now they're mowing down their own citizens. Now they're even so desperate offering six dollars a month as some kind of a payoff now to now For me, I think we can all agree that the world would be better, safer, and more just if you could break that regime.

I do not believe Lagoshimi saying that there are forces inside the White House who are counseling against striking the regime after President Trump made those threats. I don't believe it. I think it's useful for the legacy media narrative, but I do not believe it. David Ignatius is the senior national security voice for Legacy Media in Washington, been on columns for the Washington Post for many many years. I

So the best case scenario is that.

A regime whose security forces are weak, are rusty, that failed to help its proxies Hezbola in Lebanon, Hamas and Gaza, Basher Alasade in Syria, and ian Oran itself couldn't fend off and it was Israeli attacked last Yune, that that regime, if gift hard, will begin to crack.

What does it mean to hit it hard?

So what it means, I think is heavy munitionis striking barracks, bases, certainly missile production facilities that the rates would use to retaliate. But to show the Iranian people that this security force, which is hated by a lot of the country, isn't so tough that they're going to crush you. They're themselves on the run. I think that's what it would it would look like.

It would be.

It would be the barracks, logistic resources and those things can be done and people would noted we have no aircraft carrier strike group in the region. That's true, but you don't need one. I'm told we have enough aircraft in Europe, enough missiles that could be launched to hit the targets that it's not necessary to move the Gerald forward or any other aircraft carry task force.

In the region right now. And this is what Tray Yanks on Fox News reported Cut number.

Three Dana, Good Morning.

Intense anti government demonstrations erupting across Iran over the weekend were met with a brutal crackdown. A source in Tehran, speaking with Fox News via starlink described security forces open firing into crowds of people, using tear gas.

And arresting thousands.

Human rights organizations say at least five hundred and forty four people have been killed over the past two weeks, but with an ongoing internet blackout, the confirmed number is expected to increase significantly. Aron's President must sud Pozeski and made a public address yesterday discussing the clashes.

Don't need to hear regime propaganda. There are very reliable estimates of more than five thousand murdered by the regime over the weekend. Hopefully President Trump and Elon Musk worked together to get starlink working, although I'm not sure starlink can work in Iran to the extent that it worked in Ukraine, because the government in Ukraine welcomed it and put up terminals to receive it. The Iranian regime will try and stop those terminals from being act debated and

Situation in Iran is very troubling.

Certainly, hundreds, potentially thousands of people being killed going out to protests for freedom from this heinous regime very disturbing, and it impacts all Israelis.

We're all there for the people of Iran.

Before nineteen seventy nine, they were our close allies, and we look forward to being allied with them and close to them once again. Having said that, great skepticism here about whether these protests can actually bring down the regime. We're talking about a company country of ninety million people. I don't know how many tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands are out protesting, but still it's not.

Ninety million, and the regime has immense.

Means at its disposal for suppressing these demonstrations.

You're talking about an army of almost a half a.

Million soldiers, a a guard at Islamic Republican Guard, Revolutionary Guard of close to a half a million soldiers plus besiege. These are these paramilitary thugs. There may be five million of them.

And so the iran Has regime has just begun to fight.

Now whether the United States will intervene or not, I think it's always at this point. I think it's a mistake to gainsay what the President says or question what the President says.

And if he says the United States is willing to use force, I think he very much means it.

I think the American military would like to gather that force, assemble that course within a striking distance of Iran.

Though you know, American strategic bombers.

Could take off in Idaho and be over the skies of Iran in a matter of fifteen hours or even less. Still, I think the American military would like to have a very large military.

Presence in the air, which includes moving.

Carrier strike forces, may take a few weeks.

Having said all that.

My gut feeling, my gut feeling, Hugh, is that this is going to end.

In some type of deal.

And I think there are intimations both from the Iranians and the.

United States that these that context contexts towards such a deal are already going on.

What that deal may look like, That deal would look like something like Venezuela, when you get rid of the bad guys, get rid of the bad malas, which may be redundant.

I don't know any good mulas.

And their elements in the IROs. We see, he will say, well, let us take over and we will reorient. We will reorient Iran back to the United States, which would be a tremendous not just financial victory for America. I'ron of course a major supplier of oil, but also give the United States immense leverage over the Chinese because the Chinese economy is almost entirely dependent on irody and oil.

Think about that, But that would mean.

For America and the world, without firing a single shot for Israel, the outcome would be would be okay. It would could be much better if the regime would disappear entirely. But a regime that has been defanged and now newly connected with the United States, not with Russia, not with China, is very much in Israel's interest now.

Doctor Orrin Donald Trump has threatened four times Iran if they murdered their people, he would hit them. He did it on True Social a week ago, he did it on this program on Thursday, he did it on Sean Hannay's program on Thursday night. He did it on True Social Overnight and on Air Force One. So it's really five times. He's worn the Iranian and now the numbers are horrific, maybe more than five thousand people gunned down,

He certainly could.

And I think when the president puts a credible military threat on the table, he intends to use it. He puts that pistol on the table, not just as previous administrations would put a pistol on the table and had no intention of using that pistol. It actually broadcast American weakness. When President Trump has put that pistol out there, he intends to use it and that strength. We saw how it worked in achieving the release of Israeli hostages. We

It's to work.

How if you bomb IRGC headquarters, if you bomb missile silos, it's not going to bring down the regime again. You're going to still have the five six seven million armed people are going to come out of that regime and knock these protesters on the head and kill them, because the regime is not going to go quietly into that good night. It could also resolve their gene may turn around and fire some missiles at Israel, and that would

End probably is a negotiated.

End where the Rians will give up their nuclear program, that will surrender their highly enriched uranium, They will mothball a large segment of their intercontinental ballistic system, and as I said earlier, will reoriented their foreign policy and their oil policy toward the United States.

Doctor Oran. If Iran were to hit at Israel and the sort of weird calculus that Taddam Hussein used in the nineteen ninety one golf when he invaded Kawait, America led a coalition to oust him, and he sent goods at Israel. I don't think Israel will sit back this time, as they were asked to do and did in nineteen ninety one. What would the response from Israel be if Iran send another wave of ballistic missiles its way.

Be massive, and I think that John Trump is not going to hold us back. I think that was clear from his most recent meeting with the Prime Minister and that Iran no longer has air defenses. Iran is completely vulnerable them they move those missiles out of their silos, they will be hit, and not just the silos. I don't think anybody will be immune from Israel's reaction. First of all, and above all, the Iatotal committee.

Now doctor worn last question. The people of Iran are bankrupt. The real has now fall into something like two million for one American dollar, and it's falling still with the unrest. But we did not neither Israel nor the United States hit carg Island, which is their major oil export facility. Is that on the table in your view if there's another round of conflict here, I.

Don't think so.

I think the idea is that not to keep oil prices going down, not up, and hitting Craig Island would cause a spike in oil prices.

I think the whole one of the great benefits.

Potentially of the Venezuelan operation is to reduce oil to fifty or even thirty five dollars a barrel, and which would by the way, have the addition to benefit of sort of bankrupting Russia.

Think about this.

This is the geostrategic gratifications of oil diplomacy, and I think the idea is to somehow get this regime to give up its nuclear program, give up its role as the largest state sponsor of terror in the world.

Maybe not open an embassy in Israel tomorrow.

But it certainly maybe have really a de facto non belligerency with Israel and again reoriented its foreign policy toward the United States. At the same time bring down oil prices. Bring down oil prices. That will certainly, I think we're down to the president and his party political as the mid terms are approaching. Think about this. Think about this as a as a multi tier chessboard, Hugh. There's much speaking at this moment.

Doctor Michael Orran, founder of the Israel Advocacy Group. You can also follow him on Exit d R Michael Orran, Doctor Michael Arran, d R Michael orn on X. It's one of the people you can trust on this topic.

Fantastic.

I love love it great to be with you, You happen to you. You lovely to see Gloria as well. We're going to be in person later today in Los Angeles. Look, I've always said that this is going to be a tough fight, an uphill battle to turn around California, to save our beautiful state, and it's not just going to

Of the Latino community.

But also the second big point, her understanding of the legislature. I'm running as an outsider to shake up Sacramento, to end the corruption, the failure, and the bloat and the fraud. And we'll get to all that as well, but Gloria having served in the legislature, she really knows how things work there, or I guess the right term will be

Senator you may or may not remember I did the nightly news in LA from nineteen ninety two to two thousand and two. You're a Democrats. Democrat, so what happened? And welcome aboard, Thank you too.

I think with anything, it's always a process overall. If you talk with anybody who worked with me while I was in Sacramento, people knew that I worked across the aisle and I took on some of the biggest challenges even back then as a Democrat. I was one of those Democrats I always have been who believes in school choice. That meant taking on the number one political backer of the Democrat Party, the Teachers' Union. But I did that, and people in Sacramento knew that way back then. I

We believe in.

Having the right to you know, it's America. You get to say how you feel, and so I've always been very comfortable talking, debating, etc. But the final push was really, even after I left the Legislature, still trying to bring about change within the Democrat Party, when we saw the political coup in which even at that point a bad candidate Joe Biden, but essentially being pushed out in the back room by movie stars and others. It was just

Center. Would you remind me of where you were both in the Assembly and the State Senate? Were you and ask LUs where was your district located? I can't remember that much.

The numbers have changed, but I was the twenty fourth Senate different district. That's the east side of Los Angeles. It's un East LA and a good chunk of the San Gabriel Valley, So that was pretty.

Much my district.

What a great choice, Steve Hilton because she did run for Sena Ramero ran for superintendent schools when I lived in California. I was excited about that because she's a school choice advocate. How long did it take you to make this decision and who picked up the phone first?

Well, I'll get into that because I've been wanting this to happen for a long time.

Gloria and I first.

Met on that issue of school choice when she was working with Rick Gronell on a ballot initiative, a statewide ballot initiative.

I had them both on my.

Show on Fox to talk about that, and then we met in person and we got to know each other. When I started my California Focused policy organization, really the first step towards.

The decision I made to run for governor.

Golden Together that's the name of the organization, Non partnersan policy organization.

I asked Gloria to be on the board of.

That organization, and we've been working together on policy, in particular education policy for years now. And as that process has gone on and I've gotten to know Gloria as a friend and a partner in policy and a colleague, I came to the view that this would be a great and so I've been asking Gloria for quite a while now whether she would consider this, and I'm very, very happy and proud that she said yes, and here we all today making this wonderful announcement.

Sarah Ramira, I want to go back to you were a hammer. You were a good Democratic leader. My friend John Campbell was serving at the same time you were, he was on the other side of the aisle. You were very good at what you did. How shocked are your former Democratic colleagues that you're doing this? And will any of them come along and join you? And Steve Hilton then trying to turn our bankrupt state around.

Well, I think when I actually converted to being a Republican, I don't think many of my former colleagues were shocked because they had seen the progression over the years, the advocacy on school choice, etc. Women's rights, a number of issues overall. Certainly the announcement today, I'm sure many of them are really surprised at that, but I believe that they are aware that I'm committed. When I became a Republican, I said, look, I want to do my share, my

Steve Elton, we got about a couple of minutes left. Would you remind people what the website for the campaign is how they can help you. Yes, And there are like twenty five Democrats running, which one Katie Porter, has fallen like a rock. Who are you going to be running against?

Well, it looks like I want to keep saying they're not sending their best.

No.

Now, the person that's risen to the top is Eric Swalwell, if you can believe it, Eric Swalwell.

I don't know. There may be others getting into the race.

We don't know yet that yet You've got the billionaire climate fanatic Tom Steyer, through spending a lot of his own money, he's now climbing in.

The polls as well.

Look, it doesn't matter who they send, because we need change in California. We cannot have We've already this is the sixteenth year now of one party rule.

Sixteen years of one party rule. It's not healthy.

Even if they weren't a complete failure on every front, but they are a complete failure. And that's one of the things that we've been highlighting. I'm just the fraud. You know that, as iways been saying, you know the first time that when the Minnesota scandal came to light.

However bad it is in term walls as Minnesota.

You know that it's a thousand times worse in Gaven Newsom's California. And so we've been highlighting that and all these other failures that one year anniversary of the fires.

We are a blueprint for assisted suicide of the state. That's what we are a blueprint for.

So people can be building a movement for change.

Let's Steve Hilton for Governor, dot com f o R, Steve Hilton for Governor Volunteer. We've got a really cool volunteer program going on right now. By the way, the fundraising we're leading as well. We're leading in the polls. We're also leading on fundraising. We announced that today as well. That's just about to where we raise more money in the last six months than any other campaign on either side.

It's really happening in California. I think we can make this well.

I'm volunteering to moderate.

Stay around.

I'll moderate the Steve Hilton Eric Swalwell debate, and Senator Romero, whoever they put up on the Democratic side against you, I'll moderate that as well because I know what you know what you're talking about. Congratulations to you, Steve on a coup and Senator Romero. Keep coming back. California can be saved, but it can't be saved with Democrats. It just can't be. And I'm no longer a citizen here. I'm just visiting for a few weeks. But to get people to come back, they got to throw out the

Thanks you.

I'm coming right back with Senator Tom Cotton on that you do a show BRK back in America. I'm due, Hewitt. Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, is chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He has also followed for years the brutal Iranian regime. Senator Cotton, welcome. How do you assess the degree of violence in Iran? It's kind of closed off to us, but you might have sources that others of us do not have.

You know, you always introduced me as the chairman of the Intelligence Committee. You never caveat that with the fact that it's an oxymoron. So I appreciate it, but we should always probably do so for our listeners. The situation in Irano is that laughing matter. I think the violence is worse than what's generally being reported in the Western media and from outlets, or if you look at outlets such as the Committee on Human Rights in Iran or the Institute for the Study of War, they're getting it

Senter Cotten. The President has made at least four I think now five threats, one of them on this show, to the regime that he will hit them very hard, harder than they've ever been hit. The Wall Street Journal at this hour, though after those five threats by the President, is reporting that the White House is engaged in an internal debate. Some senior administration aids, led by Vice President JD. Vans, are arguing Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against a

Well, I'm sure there are may be some voices to you inside the administration who wants the president not to enforce his own red line. But the only person whose opinion ultimately matters and the administration is the president. And time after time he has enforced his red line. Sometimes he's enforced Barack Obama's red lines area did it twice?

Well, I just don't think Vice President Vance would leap That's why I don't believe it. I don't think he would leap. Well.

Well, he makes clear that he means what he says, and he says what he means, and he told the Duro, for instance, that he needed to go into exile, and the DUA was stubborn and pig headed and dug in his heels. And now he's sitting in a jail in New York City, and he told I tell us to turn over there all their nuclear program, and they didn't,

Now sentaty we do not have a strike group, a carrier strike group in the Middle East? Right now? Do we still have options for following through on President Trump's five threats directed at the IATOLA?

I think it's fair to say, after Operation Midnight Hammer last June that blew up Around's nuclear facilities and the operation to apprehend Nicholas Maduro, that the United States military has amazing capabilities that never puts any kind of operation outside of its grasp, no matter where this or that military asset may be located on the globe.

How weak do you think the regime there is? It seems to me I've been following it for forty seven years, since the initial running and revolution against a Shaw, It's never been weaker than right now. But I also believe that they probably butchered thousands of people in the streets in the last four days.

I think it's incredibly weak, as weak as it's been maybe since the I Coola seized power in nineteen seventy nine. I don't think they can whatever happens from these protests, I don't think they will ever be able to restore themselves to the aspirations they had just six months ago or eight months ago, whenever it was before operation with

I would like to play for you, Senator Cotton, a segment of President Trump on Air Force One last night when a CNN reporter asked him if he thought that the Iranians took him seriously cutting number six.

Don't you think so, CNN? Don't you think so?

Would you say that they probably do at this place after going through it for years with me.

Being hit salivating out back, Daddy, the red nuclear webbed.

Out don't you think, and that you just had Venezuela. Don't you think she says see it at Do you think they take your threat seriously? What do you say they do after all of the things we have done? What a stupid question.

Senta Cotton. I got through twenty minutes with the President and he didn't say I'd asked a stupid question. So I'm feeling kind of victorious after a Thursday's interview because he doesn't hold back when you ask a stupid question. That really is I think he's got a lot of credibility. Does he lose any of it if he doesn't act?

It was a very stupid question. These these liberal reporters live in a fantasy world, in a world that is not governed by force and by resolution. That's the world that our enemies live in, us in paying Vladimir Putin, the supreme leader of Iran world, Nicholas Maduro is definitely living in now. They stand up and take notice anytime America displays strength and result the way Donald Trump has done now since his return to office nearly a year ago.

I agree with that, by the way, and that's a very good analogy. In terms of options available to the president, they don't all have to be kinetic. They can they do anything to reconnect Iran to the outside world because we don't know what's going on in the darkness.

Sure, I don't want to get into the precise details of every option, but no, suffice to say, the president has many options to help reduce the violence against the Iranian people and increase the pressure on the regime, many different levers that the United States people.

Now, last question, Senator, we know Israel would applaud any application of forces there. What about our Gulf state allies? Would they welcome the regime toppling falling apart in Iran?

They might not be vocal about it, Hugh, but I think most Arab nations have had it with Iran and Iran's efforts to try to establish that regional dominance over Arab peoples, and many of those air nations have cooperated with US in the past in ways that have often get a lot of publicity. But is very, very welcome from the United States.

Standpoint Centaer Tom Cotton, always a pleasure. Thank you, Senator. I appreciate your time today. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm going to come back later this hour with Mark Dubowitz. More of your phone calls during the break one eight hundred and five to two oh one, two three four. Do you welcome President Trump taking kinetic military action against

Thanks so much for having me on. Look here, it's extraordinary.

I mean, as you said, I've been working on Iran for twenty two years, working with lots of administrations, including the Trump administration. Both Trump administrations on maximum pressure on the regime but also encouraging maximum support.

For the Iranian people. And the Radiom people have been out of the streets.

Since two thousand and nine, repeatedly calling for death to the dictator and the Islamic Republic, establish relations with America, with Israel, and now in the past two weeks they've taken to the streets. Millions of Iranians are on those treats, but they're also getting mowed down by the security forces. Thousands of Iranians have been slaughtered, Tens of thousands have been arrested, tortured, and dozens executed. So it is a pivotal moment for the United States, for Iran, for the region.

So I've stressed in my audience they can't trust what they see on X unless they know that the person on X is someone they can trust. They can trust you and trust Cliff may Kareem Saide you pour at Carnegie. You've got a lot of colleagues at FDD, I'm pushing out, how do you tell if you're just, you know, newbie to the Iran issue, who to trust on this about what's going on there since the regime is severed outside world contact with the people of Tehran and across all of Iran.

Yeah, I mean here, listen, it's difficult to know what's going on in the ground because, as you said, they've shut down the Internet, they're interfering with starlink access. Videos are still coming in, and we're certainly seeing what's happening on the ground. What do I trust? I don't trust any but he defending the regime number one. Number two, I don't trust anybody saying that US intervention is going to lead to some kind of rally around the flag.

So anybody's saying nap should not be trusted.

I think a lot of good Iranian voices, my colleague said, got Samanajad certainly Resipolovy.

I mean, he's all.

Over social media, the crown Prince, the son of the former Shaw. He has been very articulate and I certainly would trust many of the things that he's saying.

Okay, now let's talk about what the president can do. He was my guest last Thursday, and he said very bluntly, will hit him very very hard if they kill people. But he also gave him a little bit of an out. He said some of these deaths were because of stampede. Later that night, he didn't use that out with Sean Hannity as much, and it's been totally abandoned by Sunday night. The president now knows there are thousands of people dead.

So I think there are a number of things he can do.

I mean, first of all is to target the security forces that are actually engaged in this brutal repression.

Go after the repression apparatus.

And you could do that through offensive cyber and or military strikes against the IOGC design of Revolutionary Guard Corps, the besiege the police. These are the people that are engaged in this brutal repression. Number two is already to reach out Thelon mosque Is to try to restore or improve the starlink connection. So these videos are coming out Iranians right now being murdered in the dark. They need

Number Three.

You know what Premister Natyahu and President Trump discussed at the end of December that you reported on you was the growth and reconstituting Iranian missile program, which is going to represent a significant threat to the United States and Israel. As it gets rebuilt. The Israelis are going to go take it out. I think better the United States takes

So I think President Trump, if he has the.

Opportunity, take out those dangerous ballistic missiles, support the people, unlock the communications, go after the regime apparatus.

Mark. This is a difficult question for anyone to answer, but you'll know if anybody knows. I heard Kareem today in a podcast with Dan Senor say that the IRGC is one hundred and fifty thousand strong. All right, Iran ninety million people, ten percent, nine million people, one percent of nine hundred thousand people, So one hundred and fifty thousand igher GC members. That's a third of one percent. How hard is it to overthrow one hundred and fifty

Well, there's one hundred fifty thousand ier GC.

There's probably two to three million members of the Basiege, which is their militia. Those are the thods that drive around in motorcycles and beat up and torture and kill Iranians, So you've got a couple of million there, and they're also importing.

Thods from Iraq.

This is the Iraqi Hizbala and the Schiaik militias that they're bringing in, bringing in Arabs to kill Persians because in some cases the security force is throwing to turn their guns on their own people. So the regime's apparatus is formidable.

But you're right, listen.

I mean, there's ninety two million Iranians, and if ten percent came to the street, they.

Could overwhelm the security forces.

And certainly some of them are armed, particularly some of the Kurdish groups, the Baluchies and others.

So I think that's that's certainly a potential.

So, Mark, you're not old enough to remember the actual revolution. I watched it in real time with Right Price and Richard Nixon San Clementy my second job out of college. People marched in the daytime. Then do you expect anti regime marches to occur in the daytime?

Yeah, they are.

They're occurring in the daytime, they occurring in the nighttime. I mean, what I'm worried about you is that if there's no US intervention, that these protests are going to die off because of the brutal repression, and whether it's day or night, the guns are being turned on Iranians.

Thousands are being slaughtered.

At some point, They're just going to have to They're going to stay home, and if they.

Stay home, the regime is going to come out of this.

Yes, a wounded animal, but a bitter one, a lethal one, a much more dangerous one. And I'd be worried that Ryan's will never go back on the streets.

Follow Mark on exit m dubouts, follow everyone at FTD at FDD, Mark is coming back next hour. So other my drivetime audience in the inside the Beltway, here's them for six minutes to repeat a lot of this. So make sure you listen to those segments of my interview with Mark Dubowitz and follow him and follow the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy Station Morning Glory and Evening Grace America. I'm Hu Jewett. Welcome to our three of today's program.

Now absolutely right, arly Burke, we've built eighty of them. We've got ten out a contract. It is the singular best ship build. It is the proof we can do things right when so many other things tell us we can't. It's it's and it's a beautiful ship. I mean, the President and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on that. On top of it, by having eighty and now going to ninety, you can defray costs of any individual change across eighty or ninety ships.

So a twenty million dollars change costs on that ship, you.

Know, two hundred thousand dollars, But on a DDG one thousand, well only have three ships.

A twenty million dollar change costs seven million for that ship.

So it's a beautiful classes ship built by both you know, Angles and Bath iron Works, you know, in two different states. Beautifully, it is the best surface large service companent in the world today and it will be for the next fifteen to twenty years because the investments we made in new a just baselines nine and eventually ten, in new weapons systems and in modernizing the hull and mechanical plan.

Every time I go by it, there's one ready to be commissioned. There's one in the final stages when they're putting the aged stuff on it though it's behind the curtain, and then there's one that is just getting underway. So I think they're doing about one every two years. Is that about right up in Bath? I don't know what they're doing in Mississippi.

I'd say one per year in each yard, and it really gets out too closer to two and a half per year between the two yards total. And there'll be perturbations where we launched four in a year, but then.

The next year only two. You know how it is. But yes, it's you know what, that's consistent ship.

But we bought the ones you're watching were bought in a lot of nine ships that guaranteed both yards consistent, predictable money, so they could invest in modernization if they chose to, and they could invest in a work force.

Now, Admiral the President on this program on Thursday said he is asking for a trillion and a half next year in the defense budget. That's great. Can it be banked if there's nowhere to spend it? I mean, can it be appropriated and banked over it at either bath Ironworks or Huntington Angles or whoever's making whatever general dynamics down in Connecticut? Can Can that money be appropriated and spent but not outlaid?

So obviously we're talking about an extra five hundred billion the current budget this year's nine hundred one is it's going to be nine. It looks like nine hundred one billion plus about one hundred and fifty billion reconciliation.

It's just going to be up there.

May it may a little less one hundred fifty billion of the reconciliation money spent. What he's talking about is increasing at five hundred billion. That's a great question you're asking. I actually think that there are ways to do some of it. You know, with shipbuilding that you could get some multi year money in there, but I think it'd

Now, we don't know, we don't want that. Yeah, but I'm thinking that the Columbia Class is not funded, but the defense, the whole triad depends upon it getting launched in eight years, doesn't it.

Look I think that the Columbia Class will, you know, have some slippage and some cost overs, but I actually think by by current historical standards, it's going to be a good A good program look to be. Twenty one's done fantastic. You've got to give the Air Force a lot of credit. That thing is delivering close to on cost, close to on time with you. And one of the reasons is they've been very consistent, like not making significant changes to the platform was still in design.

This is something where we failed on the Finkolntarry.

Class, on the Constellation class frigate at the Fincotary Yard.

The US Navy got their fingers in.

The pie way too often changing the requirements and that was a major driver and our failure there. So the answer he is, we probably will get all this done. I don't think it'll be eight years. I think it'll be ten. I don't think if we say it's a one hundred billion, I think it'll be one hundred and twenty. But these are predictable increases in costs and growth.

All right, Well, I'm finally glad to hear some good news, and I was very encouraged by your conversation with Aaron McLain. I recommend everyone go to school of war. Now, what kinetic option does the president have available tonight? There are a million people in the streets of Tehran as you and I are talking right now. The images I've seen

We have two.

First of all, there's complaints we don't have a carrier strike over this moment, that's true. But what we do have is a B two fleet that can operate even if Israel had not rolled back the whole Iranian.

Air defense networks, which they did.

And then operated with some I would say ease, but consistency over Iranian airspace. Those B two's delivering each delivering you know, up to you know, twenty five to fifty precision guided munitions very accurately, could.

Really do a number. You know, these aren't the four dough bombs.

These are lots of small bombs could be delivered very accurately, and they could get in and out safely.

Also, we could use long ring.

Strike tomahawks from destroyers that are in the Middle least. And if there are submarines, particularly one of our modified SSGN Ohio class submarines, then we could deliver a lot of tomahawk as well. But really I would be relying heavily on our penetrating bomber, the B two stealth.

So, Admiral, you're a student of deterrence. We've talked about it a lot. The President has made the threat five times, and as recently as Thursday on this show, that he did it again on Sean Hanny's show, that he did it on Air Force one last night, and he did it on True Social over the weekend. How much does our credibility suffer if he does not follow through with the kinetic strike?

Now, So, first of all, this sounds a lot like Venezuela over three months.

Right now.

The thing I'd say, first you don't say I'm striking, I'm striking, is then that night that's not fair to the military forces.

Try to play around your lack of surprise.

So the President handled Venezuela perfectly three months of a maximum pressure campaign. I didn't agree with every tool he used, but he's president and he did a great job with it. And by the time he even did like a title fifty, it looks like intelligence strike one night around December twenty fourth, just to send a signal I will hit you.

And then he hit him right and he grabbed a duro.

And so I think he's got a lot of credibility.

And if I say I'm going to use force, I might use it on you. I guarantee.

China took an important lesson on the on the willingness of Donald Trump to use force. Now in the case of Iran, he said it a lot. Look conditions on the ground, drive that can. Can the application of our cost and position make it safer or more likely for counter regime forces to succeed.

If they can, then he should use the weapons. But what he signals to them is I'm willing to do it.

And they know we can bring B two s over their airspace since we did it already, you know, early in twenty twenty five with the four Dooh strikes. So I think he's done the right thing. I don't think we'll lose credibility if he doesn't strike, only because he did it in venezuel and the conditions aren't perfect here in.

Iran just yet.

All right, last question, I don't know how starlink works. That you do. You are the executive director of the Cyberslarium. People keep saying Elon sent starlink. It's my civilian understanding, which is a zero, that you've got to have receivers on the ground for starlink in the sky to work. Am I right or wrong? I don't mind being wrong. You can tell the world I'm wrong.

If I'm wrong, the only way I've used it is with receivers on the ground. I didn't ess I have to have receiver, but someone with whom I was connected to had to have a receiver. So do I think there's starlink receivers on the ground in Iran?

Yes?

Do I think that the system? He has to align the system properly so it can be utilized by the people potentially. So I think the question might be, is starlink being aligned so they can properly be utilized by people, you know who are not complicit with the government, And that's a good question to ask him.

But quick bonus, do we have the capability of interrupting their jamming which is going on of starlink and other cyber efforts. Do we have a cyber tool available that can hit them that we don't have to see?

We have cyber tools and kinetic tools, and we are world class counter jamming, you know, suppressing jamming with our kinetic tools.

We're very good at it.

And you only have to do it once before the guy who owns the jamming system says, you know, I'd prefer to not be on you know, so I would that's a kinetic weapon that could be released at them.

But in addition, do I think they're cyber tools? Yes.

Admiral Mark Montgomery or Admiral Montgomery, thank you so much for joining us on both the ship building and the orion question. We'll talk to you again soon on both. I appreciate your time coming right back America with David Vahnson talking about the economistint It. Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. I was just reading online joined by David Boson, CEO of the Bonson Group. David, Happy New

Uh?

Well, I guess I think there have been other issues with smaller countries, and obviously there was a layering of tariffs and sanctions is a better word for it with Russia after.

The Ukraine invasion.

But I mean, trying to freeze Iran out seems to me to be pretty good foreign policy.

Now it is a tariff. I know you don't like tariffs, but that's a national security tariff if everyone was correct.

Yeah, yeah, that's I wouldn't consider that a protective tariff in any way, shape or form.

It would be a national security sanction.

Right.

So what I expect the Supreme Court to do with the case before it is to reman the case without a decision for tariff by tariff examination by the district court as to whether or not there's a national security in nexus. In other words, punt is that your expectation.

Well, look, you would be more of an expert than I would on the legal side of it. They were not national security rationales for the case that is before the Supreme Court.

Now it's under.

AIPA, which is an economic emergency. There is a different rationale between two thirty two and three ZHO one for national security, and no one has even contested the potential constitutionality of those. I don't happen to believe the steel

I'm actually an originalist, and I think the IAAPA was written in such a way as to give the court pause. But let's put that aside. What I really wanted to talk to you about is the new year. I'm very conservative going into this new year because I think there hadn't been a correction in a while. What are you telling your clients, David.

Well?

I wrote a twenty page annual review commentary forecast that we do every year. There is up at dividencafe dot com went out on Friday, and I'm talking about the different themes.

We have our.

Concerns about the AI theme, which I was on with you late last year talking about, and I believe the valuation concern it isn't so much you going a long time without a correction. I mean, look, the the Nasdaq was down thirty percent and SMP were down twenty percent for a few days last April, so you've you've had volatility, but the valuations and concentration in the broad market are very high, and we are definitely encouraging clients the way we're managing money to be much more selective.

So when the president is in an open conflict with the FED and there might be a DOJ investigation about the Fed's architectural overhaul, does that have any impact on the market or should it?

Yes, it should in the sense that if people believed it were a pretextual intervention to central bank independence, which I think it's unquestionably it is. But I believe the reason markets shrugged it off today, Hugh, is that they

There's no legal requirement that he leave.

But you got to go back to nineteen forty eight since the last time a FED chair did not leave when their chairmanship ended.

I think Chairman Powell is going to leave.

I don't like this investigation and the pretext behind it, but I do think markets shrugged it off today for that reason.

Now I'm an agnostic as to whether or not they're a pretextual investigation going on here, or whether or not they actually spend a billion dollars they didn't have. I'm open to that. What I'm curious about you mentioned originalism. I don't think there should be an independent central bank, David. That's not in the constitution. There can be a legislation for it. But I think the president would be able to remove every person in article too. You're an originalist.

Yeah, the problem we have, Hugh, you and I are going to be on the exact same side of this. I also believe that you can't go create something that exists in sort of outer space within our separation of powers. Let me just be clear, so my integrity is intact.

I don't think the.

President cares about this stuff at all.

I think his motive is he wants someone to do what he says.

Right.

But your point structurally that the FED from the Federal Reserve Act, which was passed by Congress exist in a sort of limbo, is to where that jurisdiction is between separation of powers. And I'm very uncomfortable with it, and I think the solution to that is to not willing nearly what parts of the Act we follow, in parts we don't, but it is to go get legislative review and judicial review to force this to.

Be done constitutionally.

Now you know why.

I know that can be done because we're doing it with the Consumer Financial Protection Bile, which I also believe was passed unconstitutionally. But these require judicial review done the right way.

So this is the big thousand dollars question. If the Court upholds the president's right to remove at will anyone in the executive branch, so he can he can replace every FED governor. I'm not worried about that because I don't think you're gonna put they still have to go through Cenate confirmation. They can't be Bozo's. I think they'll be normal banker types and they'll be like your own power the end. Do you agree?

Yes, I do believe.

Look, the President already has the right to appoint them, you're saying, if he has the right to fire them at will, Yes, And ultimately I wouldn't be worried about who would end up on the court as long as the Senate excuse me on the FED. As long as the legislative branch does its job. It concerns me practically, not structurally that I don't think we always necessarily have a Senate doing its job, but that is the way that the system is designed and ought to function.

Absolutely so I believe that we can find nine FED governors that would make it. Now, David, I haven't listened to the Dividend Cafe yet. Did you record a podcast on your twenty page magnum opus. I haven't seen it yet.

I did, and I'm going to DM it straight to you when we're done, because there's very few people in the country I want.

To hear it more than you. But yeah, we did the.

Video with all the charts, the podcast, and then there's a full written pdf that came out on Friday, Yes, and just reviewing everything from twenty five, but then giving our forecasts and themes for twenty twenty six.

I want everyone to go to Dividend Cafe wherever you get your podcasts from iTunes, Spotify, whatever, and listen to David's year end, year begin beginning summary. His podcast on the AI Bubble is also not to be missed. But that's a few weeks back. The new one is the one I want to get. Follow him at David Bonson on X. He's also the founder of the Boson Group. David, Happy New Year to you. Thank you for joining me.

Yeah, you absolutely. I mean this is a typical regime trick. Their back is against the walls. So they offered negotiations and try to trap American negotiators. And the only place where they tend to win against America is at the negotiating table. They won against Biden, they won against Obama.

No way Kamene is going to give into that.

And if not, he's just going to play for time, try to divide America, try to divide the White House, to divide the US from Europe, and he's going to ultimately try to embarrass the President. And I don't think the President is going to be embarrassed and is prepared to be embarrassed, so he needs to enforce the red line that he laid out.

Now, Mark, the Israelis could have killed Hamione, and no doubt we can kill Hamoni, but there are arguments on both sides. We to leave him alive or if we have the ability to have him shot killed.

Well, I do think we need to decapitate the leadership of Iran, and that includes Kamenee, but also includes senior IRGC commanders, those who are in control of the command and control system of Iran, and that includes the repression apparatus. So yeah, if you decapitate the leadership, then this possibility of others stepping into their place. I mean, that's what President Trump did in Venezuela with Maduro. I think there's

All right, Now, Mark, what are the How many IRGC bases are there? How many besiege bases? The final Israeli wave was going to hit them. President Trump waved it off in order to bring that conflict to an end last June. How many target sites are we talking about?

So there are I mean there are dozens and dozens of RGC and besiege bases all around the country, obviously headquarters in places like Tehran, but certainly it's a target rich environment. I mean, the Israelis and the Americans have detailed intelligence on all of these bases, maneuvers, apparatus. This has been cited for years here I mean particted by the Israelis.

I mean MOSAD and military intelligence in Israel.

Have a very, very large and expansive target set, and that information has been provided to the Americans.

So there's no shortage of targets. Just the question of what President Trump will choose.

If President Trump brings down this regime, I think he goes to the top of American presidents, at least since FDR. He's going to actually surpass Reagan. The Soviet Union, of course, dissolved under George H. W. Bush. How would you rank that achievement. I think Iran is a lynch pin, and I've got Nixon on the brain. Nixon used to say, it's everything, It's one of the two pillars of the Middle East, And so how big of a moment is this for Donald Trump?

Yeah, I've said publicly here you know that that if he brings down the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will be one of the greatest foreign policy presidents in modern history, if not the greatest.

I mean, the Islamic Republic of Iran, first.

Of all, has killed and made thousands of Americans. It has created massive bloodshed and chaos in the Middle East and continue to drag us into these endless wars in the Middle East.

It's sponsored terrorism globally.

It's threatened to kill President Trump and tried to kill him, and it is try to build nuclear weapons. It has built a massive ballistic missile program. It's fired hundreds of those blistic missiles at Israel, and missiles and drones at.

Our allies in the Middle East.

I mean, it has been such a force for murder, chaos, and violence that to get rid of it and to replace it with something better and more stable, more peaceful, and more prosperous would be a game changer for American national security. And by the way, it would also allow us to do what we need to do, which is to focus our resources in the coming years on the multi generational threat from the Communist Chinese Party.

I read him here quote and he laughed. He said, haven't I already done that? He's done pretty well. I've got to admit ruining the Iranian nuclear to turn is a big deal. But do you think we could count on a post harmonious, harmonious regime being stable and at least not evil?

Yeah, I mean President Trump. W also did say that. He said, I accept that. I accept that he's interviewed with you. You know, I think he appreciates how important taking down the Islamic Republic is, and I think he has for most of his adult life.

I think we have.

Got I don't think we can count on anything in the Middle East, and we certainly can't count anything in geopolitics, but there's no doubt in my mind that whatever comes next will be much better.

So everyone in your car go to FDD Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Follow it at FDD, Follow Marquette and Dubavitch, and there are lots of other people as well. But make sure they're reliable. Don't believe the regime propaganda. Don't believe the regime apologists, don't believe people who supported the JCPOA believe people like mart Thank you, Mark d Vivitz. Stay tuned Sebastian Laie and next, welcome back in America.

First of all, thanks so much again for for for having me and for mentioning to the President.

Yes it was.

I mean having the President cara on my father's case and and and uh you know mentioned my father's name. It just gives us a lot of hope, you know, him saying that he will he will this is something that he will deal with us. There's something that he's working on, and you know, we're so incredibly grateful. I just want to thank him from the bottom of my heart. Uh and And unfortunately, as the President said, the China

President try said that he's old and sick, so he's aware of his condition, but that they haven't heard anything from g Is there a point at which you would naturally expect them to allow him to move to Great Britain? Is there a sentencing, a conclusion point as they had with souls and Eats and they finally just tossed souls and eats and out because it wasn't worth the problem. Is there a date in your mind you think that they'll do that after some proceeding is finished.

And unfortunately they're very happy keeping him there. You can see with the torturous conditions that he's under. You know, for Soldis confinement has been for the last five years, and they've kept on delaying this, this this never ending trial. It seems that now it's finally getting to its end, and to everybody's surprised, they found nothing. There's nothing that incriminates my father. They have found this man who's given everything that he has for freedom and democracy, stayed in

I did ask him, Sebastian if he would consider the release of your father as a significant gesture by Jujinping, and he said yes, I kind of count that as a win. Do you see that as a win that he is putting significance into that sort of it's a bargaining chip, it's something he wants.

Yeah, definitely.

We're so we're so incredibly grateful. And you know, to know that the president has about my father's case is something that has has given uf I'm family a lot of a lot of hope and and and it is it's it's the thing is look, it's it's a it's a relatively.

Easy thing for hang and trying to do.

I mean it will take them two hours to put him on the plane and send them over.

To the US, to the UK. It's aware of it.

I mean, this is this is very administratively, incredibly easy and at no cost and directly beneficial for every for everybody. So if not even even willing to do something as simple as that, it shows it shows a lot of how the Chinese and and the Hong Kong view, uh, you know, view the cruelty that they're doing to my father.

I'm a great believer that Sun Cass cripple governments as well as individuals. They don't realize that there is no benefit to keeping your father in prison. There's one other person in the world besides President Trump I think can get their attention. That would be Popolo the sixteenth. Has the pontiffs said anything about your father?

So the Holy Father has met with my mother and sister publicly, and we're so incredibly grateful for that. So I don't believe he said anything publicly, but I think he is praying for my father and for a man in his situation by himself in his cell. Knowing that you're the the Holy Father is praying for you, and that there's so many people praying for him worldwide, it gives him immense strength. I mean, this is what he's going through is something that I think would would break many people.

And his faith, his his.

His the knowledge that he has done the right thing is what keeps him going Somacham.

What can the audience do besides pray for you and your family and your father, you know.

Please write your representives, follow this story along and and and I mean besides pray, but praying is a huge is a huge thing as well, especially in the case like my father's where where you know they keep in solitary. To tell them that nobody cares about him, that nobody you know, has that he sacrificed everything for democracy. I

Has anyone been allowed to sit down with him, your sister, the barrister who's representing him, yourself, anyone been allowed to see him in the last six months outside of that brief court appearance that I noted.

Yeah, so he he doesn't get any he gets prison visits obviously that they're not.

Well.

Anything he says is listened to. But but but he at least gets prison visits. From my understanding, it's half an hour each time, four times a month. So it's it's it's it's a little something to to hold on to. But it's, uh, yeah, it's it's nothing.

So bat who goes into it's got to be dangerous to go there. Who goes in to see your father, the lawyer, your sister, it will be Yeah, so Scenowya's.

Family members.

Unfortunately, because my father, my sister has now spoken out on behalf of my father, she could also no longer go back to Hong Kong. So she made this very conscious sacrifice, after very bravely being with my father for loss, you know, five years by his side, to go out and speak out, you know, about the horrendous treatment that he's under, and and and and and.

The deterioration of his health.

And because of that, he can't go back.

She can't go back.

Sebastian, keep keep, please keep us informed. I'll continue to ask the President of the Secretary of State whenever they're on the program about the progress of this guy. I think the more eyes that we can put on Juju and Ping, he could do himself a lot of good in the world if you just let your father go to Great Britain. So our pros continue with Sebastian. By the way, President Fairy instruct with you and I am too. Thank you for your ongoing efforts on behalf of your