Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College. All Things Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there, and of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Glory and even Graces America. I
hope you're out there working out on Saturday. Have a big weekend pod for you, focused almost exclusively on Iran, with a little bit of Minnesota, but mostly on Iran because the war that looms there could be enormous, could be huge. And the latest reporting that we've got from the Times of Israel is that talks have been breaking down.
The Iranian senior officials have rejected President Trump's demand that they curb their nuclear activities, turn over their physile material, and get her to the missiles, the ballistic missiles which threatened all of our allies, beginning with Israel, but also the Golf Cooperation Council, Turkey, maybe Europe. They might be able to go as far as Europe, and the said no. So I expect something to happen. I don't think it's
going to happen this weekend, but it might. That's why I've got a special emergency podcast that brought together all of my interviews from the past three weeks with people who know what they're talking about Iran, and they are all available. Go over again to where we get your podcast and you'll find that special emergency broadcast. But today is a look back with Matt Continetti, Ben Dominich, Eli
Lake and John Ellis. If everything that's happened and what might happen going forward, what they think is the best case, what they think is the worst case, and what they think are the risks. Do not miss a minute of todays you here at show Welcome Back in America. I'm Hugh Hewittt joined by Matt Continetti. Matt is the head of domestic studies at the American Enterprise Institute is a calumnist for the Wall Street Journal. Welcome back, Matt, good
Friday to you. I want to start I'm going to spend most of our time on Iran and the United States possibly going to war this weekend, but I want to actually be in with Prime Minister kir Starmer visiting China on his way out, he mumbled the name Jimmy Lai. Jimmy Lai is a British citizen who is going to die in solitary confinement. Did the Prime Minister do right by a person who he is supposed to be pledged to protect.
Well, it's a start to say his name, Hugh, but it's clearly not enough. Jimmy Lai's legal saga has been going on for years. We're all aware that he is being held in terrible conditions. He is a champion of freedom of a free press who has been libeled and arrested by the Hong Kong authorities acting under Beijing's direction. So it's good that Kirs Starmer mentioned Jimmy Lai, but
he needs to do so again and more loudly. And I hope that President Trump brings up Jimmy Lai as well as he heads into a meeting with Shijinping in a few months in Beijing.
He has told me he has done it before. I'm sure he'll do it again. But I think when you're bought, when you're the head of your government is there, and he doesn't. He just mumbles on the way out. I was very disappointed now to Iran. Well, first to the media coverage of Iran. There are four stories today, Iran, Minnesota, warship to the fad Reserve, and Don Lemon. What do you think is the relative importance of those four and what order, Matt.
Kane, are we ascending or descending? Well, obviously Don Lemon is the least important. Yes, you know, I would say Minnesota is next the number three important, but not as important as the next head of the Federal Reserve, who will have tremendous influence over the economy. And then, of course Iran, which has been the nettle an American foreign
policy since the Islamic Revolution in nineteen seventy nine. That's the most important story, and of course it's the one that the media is covering the least.
That's my conclusion too. Why is it Do they lack the ability, the understanding, the resource. We don't have any reporters there. Obviously they'll go to jail. But why the reluctance, Because I think a bit of it is a reluctance to get into what Biden didn't do and what Obama did do, and both of those were wrong.
Well, I have a rule, Hugh, which is that the media can focus on only one story at a time, and it tends to go for the shiniest object. That often you know that, you know the cliche, If it bleeds, it leads, And so you have the Minnesota story. Of course, with the killings of the two American citizens in the course of two and a half weeks, that obviously has seized the media's attention. But what Trump's if it bleeds it leads is when you have the media reporting on itself.
And so as soon as Don Lemon was arrested, the entire media landscape shifted to cover Don Lemon as if he were the you know, a national emergency, and so that media narcissism Trump's all. That may explain why we're not hearing more about the very important developments in the person.
Our mutual friend Bill Bennett used to say, Americans have trouble with proportionality. We've got at least thirty five thousand dead people in Iran today. I saw from one of the Iranian diasprin news organizations that's really sixty eight thousand people were murdered by the regime. I don't think they that that number gets through to people. It's just too hard to imagine shooting that many people in cold blood.
Well, you know, this is the Stalinist nature of the Iranian mullus. What did Stalin say, You kill one person, it's a tragedy. If you kill a million people, it's a statistic. And the tens of thousands of people who have been killed by the regime after the protests starting last November, plus the tens of thousands more who are in jailed by the regime and probably being tortured, that's just too big to comprehend, and especially when the has
other stories that can chase much closer to home. But I mean, if you're just tracking the developments, as I know you have been all week, I mean, we are putting in place the force is necessary to strike Iran. And you know President Trump, he always leaves negotiations open, but he usually acts on his threats. He did so in Iran last July, and he did again in Venezuela just at the beginning of this year. So I'd be watching very carefully what's going to happen in the next forty eight hours.
We're going to talk about your guess, but I want to read to the audience Open Source Intel, which is an x account that I follow fairly closely. Usually reliable senior US military officials have informed the leadership of a key US ally in the Middle East that President Trump could authorize an attack on Iran this weekend strikes and convince as early as Sunday. I think that's actually credible. But I also see that a lot of our big airplanes moving things like bad Systems and Patriot missile are
still moving into the region. They got to protect.
Things, absolutely, yeah, And I think that's why Trump has weighted to this point. He'll keep waiting until that air defense is in place.
I'm gonna be right back with Matt during the middle of the break. Don't go anywhere America and give you it. I'm back with Matt Coney. Matt, as I imagine what might happen over the weekend or next week. I know that there are forty thousand American troops on ships and on bases there. It's not without grave risk to our people, and I don't think that's fully baked into the equation yet. How do you assess the up and the downside of striking Iran?
Well, I think the f site is clear is that you could deal a lethal blow to the missile program. You could hit the nuclear remnants such as they are after Operation Midnight Hammer once more, you would degrade the security apparatus, the IRGC and the besieging militias that the
regime uses to enforce its will. And you know, more broadly, you would set the conditions for an eventual regime collapse when the Iranian people can exploit the weaknesses of the regime which are many, and finally end the Iatola's rule. The downsize a of course, retaliation attack on US forces in the region, attack on the state of Israel. So they have to be very careful and you have to be prepared for whatever comes next. You also have to be aware that President Trump has laid down a very
fine line here. He has said repeatedly that Iran needs to stop killing its people. He has said that Iran needs new leadership. Just the other day on the Red Carpet for the Millennia movie, he said that he's demanding that Iran ends its nuclear program entirely, verifiably, and he's demanding that they end the killing of the protesters.
He may have left out a third.
Demand I think that we're making to the Iranians, which is they have to curtail the missile program. These ballistic missiles threat in Europe, they threaten our posts in the Middle East. One day, they could thread in the United States. They shouldn't be allowed. So he's laid down these lines, Hugh, and I think he's prepared to enforce them. He's going to do it on his schedule. And sometimes that takes not just the enemy but also the media in the
United States by surprise. But once he's lays down these lines, I think he knows that he has to act or else he'd erode our deterrence rather than the Iranian regime.
If you're on the receiving end of the messages that he'd been sent, are you confused about him? Are you confused about the timing? And if you look back at American history, it took us what seemed to be forever to get ready to invade Iraq in nineteen ninety one, a long time to get ready in two thousand and three, and it took I think at least a month to get ready for Afghanistan in two thousand and one. How do you think they perceived the timing here?
Well, I think that there's that unpredictability factor to Trump, the Madman theory to Trump, right. He likes saying things that are contradictory because it keeps everyone on their toes. And so if you are the Iranian regime, you're wondering what he might do next. But with Trump, since the beginning, you have always said, look at what he does, not what he says. And so let's just look what he's doing here. He's putting the assets into place. He is
moving these air defense systems. We have the flotilla that's forming in the in the Persian Gulf, in the region. We have other assets in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. That's exactly what he did with Venezuela, right, And and.
Then just starts.
When we thought it wasn't going to happen, Maduro was gone beer, ready to be get.
Up on Saturday morning and see something happening. Stay tuned, America. I'll be right back with Matt Continetti. Welcome back in America. I'm who Hewett with mad Continetti of AI and Wall Street Journal columnist Matt. I have tried to talk to every Iran expert that I can. The one I found fascinating this week, Well, they're all fascinating was Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired United States Navy. He's actually run a
carrier's strike group. He speculates that we've got one of our Tomahawk missile Ohio boomers there, as well as all the destroyers with their missiles, as well as the Lincoln with its aircraft. We can hit a lot of targets, and then if the b twos come, they can switch out their their big payloans the bunker busters for lots of little payloads. And if the Israeli comes in, we can we together can hit hundreds and hundreds of targets at the start. Do you think that is how it
will go down? Or do you think it will be a big demonstration and a chance for then Iran to throw up their hands and say enough.
You know, I'm not sure, Hugh. There's something that Trump likes that's about spectacular, you know, but not necessarily spectacular, in the shotgun off fashion of the bombardment of Baghdad back in two thousand and three, which did use quite a few munitions to light up the government centers of Saddam Hussein's regimes.
Trump likes the.
Shock of surprise, the audacity, right this. We wake up one morning and all of a sudden, the mission to destroy the four down nuclear complex and around has already been completed. We wake up six months later to find that the dictator in Venezuela has been spirited out of the country and the new government his deputies are now pledging to work with us. So I would think of something that is pretty spectacular, but maybe not you know, the full Shakanawe hundreds of targets type thing that we've
seen in the past. I don't know what that would be. It could be something actually slightly smaller, hue. Maybe we seize one of these Iranian vessels, part of the ghost fleet, and in a way similar to our approach in Venezuela, where we've said this oil is sanctioned, we're not going to let it pass, and so we use our assets in the region to take over one of these ships to show that the Iranians that we mean business.
They mentioned that he mentioned seizing a lot of them so that their economic crunch becomes real.
I mean it already is real for the Iranian people. I mean, that's why we had these protests to begin with. You know that you have to feel for the Iranian people, especially in a place like Tehran. They have no electricity,
they have very little food, they have no resources. I knew something was going to happen Iron toward the end of last year when I've read a small squib in the paper where the Iranian President Pieshcasian was raising the possibility of moving the Tehran population out of the city to deal with them the drought. I said, if you're going to do that, you have big problems, and sure
enough they do. And so really what America needs to do is enforce its red line in order to maintain our deterrence, but then also to continue the pressure that will eventually lead I think this to collapse.
Two questions about two effects, Matt. The argument has been made by opponents of a strike that a strike will see the Iranian people the street rally around the regime. And the second argument is that if Trump doesn't strike, he's done the Obama Syria back off with devastating consequences to his credibility. What do you make of both of those arguments? We got three or four minutes.
Well, I mean, the first argument I think is just wrong because it was said in the run up to Operation Midnight Hammer. This idea that if America were to intervene, the Iranian people will rally behind this terrorist government. You will see the government try to convey that image, which is what we did see in the days and weeks right after Operation than Himmer. But the longer term effect was to weaken the regime. That's why these protests were happening.
People feel that they have no resource, this is nowhere to turn, and here the government is continuing to pour resources into this military apparatus, this potential nuclear apparatus. So I think a strike would weaken the regime, and the people know, the Iranian people know that this regime lacks legitimacy. On the red line argument, there is some truth to it.
If an American president states repeatedly that the government of Iran needs to stop killing its people or else, there will be diar repercussions when he says we need new leadership, When he says that help is on the way for the Iranian people to not act, means that our adversaries would say, oh, well, look he's not backing up his words with action. So I think that is an argument
we need to take seriously. We know that when Obama failed to enforce his red line in Syria in twenty fourteen, Vladimir Putin, anex crimea ISIS, began its rampage through the Middle East. Shijinping started treating Obama like a wayward student, leaving him on the tarmac in Beijing, and American deterrence spiraled further. It was already spiraling under Obama, inspired further
after he failed to enforce the red line. So when you draw a red line, you need to enforce it or else our enemies take notice and the world becomes a more dangerous place.
Last question, Matt Connetty. Secretary Rubio is in front of the Senate at length two days ago, and on Cuba he was very direct, we'd love to see regime change there, and of course I would expect that from the son of Cuban expats, and I think a lot of people in the Trump world like it too, because it's Western hemisphere. What is the bell tolling for that regime as well?
Oh?
I think so. First, what an incredible performance by Secretary of State Rubio. I mean, he is just a tremendous communicator taking an incoming fire from all of the Democratic Senators and throwing it right back at them. It was just an amazing performance and I heard many accolades for him. On Cuba, I mean, Cuba is in even worse shape than Iran because it doesn't have any oil to sell illegally to China. The Cuban people again face blackouts, very
little food resources. The government has it just rules with
a terror, no legitimacy. I think what the government, our government is looking for here is again something similar to what happened in Venezuela, where now that that Venezuelan lifeline has been cut off, you the Cuban regime has very little room for maneuver, and so if it were to make a deal with the United States where it's leadership stepped down in order to provide for some type of transition, I think that's probably an outcome that would be desirable.
It would be the end of castroism in Cuba. What an incredible advance of hue and freedom. But it might take time, just as in Venezuela, for us to get to a point in Cuba where we have open elections and a democratically elected government.
I have been quoting Matt Connety's theory of re regime coercion, not regime change for all week, and I'll continue to do so. Follow Matt at Continetti, read him in the Wall Street Journal, look for whatever work he is supervising or putting out at the American Enterprise of the two and Stay two w right back on nineteen morning Glory and even Grace America. That was the president in the
Oval Office earlier today. I'm Hugh Hewitt joined by Ben Dominich, host of the Big Ben Podcast on the Fox Podcast Network, also a Fox News contributor. The Big Ben Podcast this week is fabulous with Bill Malusian, and we also have Winston Marshall and we're going to talk a little sports here. We're going to get to Iran Ben, but I got to start with do you follow a three year letterman? Oh?
Do I follow three year letterman? I'm a huge fan of three year Letterman. He is doing the lord's work on everything glatform.
So you know that he has a million and a half views of his post about Todd Lemmon this morning. It's wonderful. Every time I think, Okay, the joke's over, there are still millions of people who can be conned.
Yes, absolutely, it's funny and you know, look, I commend his feed to everyone who does not follow through your letterman. You will get the information that you need and didn't know you need to have.
Yeah, and you will also get to mock people like Don Lemon mercilessly and lawyers. All right, but I brought that up because you talked about sports, and I want to share with you a point of view. I grew up on Pete Franklin, all right. He was the three WE new sports talk guy at night. I think probably eight to midnight. It might have been nine to in the midnight, but he was on three hours or four hours a night. He was fabous. He eventually went to
New York. All he did was sports and wouldn't do politics. Made me laugh, taught me sports. And then you brought up Keith Obinday, who I've gone a few rounds with. And it's not really fair because I actually think Keith is dumb, just dumb. Yeah, what do you think?
I think? I think Keith has that classic, uh sort of experience of someone who is who is book smart and life dumb. I think that he actually is very I think he's very well read. He's you know, he has a lot of different references he can pull out of the back. He's kind of like the reverse Dennis Miller, you know, in lots of time if you think about it.
But my real objection is he was a good anchor, a big show, and and you know, and everything like that, and you know, it was I think it was a real loss to I mean, you know, my equivalent probably for you, for Pete Franklin was the George Michael sports machine one. But one of the things that the things that really, you know, I think is sad for a lot of these guys. And and that's why I brought
Colbert into it as well. You know, when I was talking about this is that if you are like, you know, kind of a late nineties teenager like I am, and you saw these guys in the nineties in the early two thousands, you have a different image of them because you realize what they were good at. You saw them when they were good at something and then they became something else. And it's I do want to just kind
of say, there's something that's lost when that happens. There's something that's lost when you have, you know, a good sports writer who just turns totally political or a good sports anchor who decides my opinion is about politics matter more than anything that I think about the Yankees, and that's I just think something that is sad on a certain level, and it's it's one of the things that just bothers me about everything that we've seen gone on
with in sports media. It's also, by the way, why Barstool is such a huge success and bleacher Report.
I move on bleacher Report. Let me ask you about now. I got to walk a very careful line here. It is my policy never drag someone for whom you have worked. So I'm not dragging the Washington Post. I didn't have anything to do with the sports coverage, but I talked to John Ellis of News Items today. He informed me that they're losing seventy five million dollars a year. They're going to lay off a whole bunch more and more people,
and that Jeff Bezos may actually sell it. There are buyers, but he's sort of sick of he made a bad pursonse it's not his livelihood, it's not his passion. He doesn't know what to do. It's not something he can sell. But when I heard they're killing the sports I want to compare it with Cleveland dot com, the Cleveland Plain Dealers what I grew up on. They're thriving because of
Dave Campbell illa Buck six. He is their sports editor, and he realized that sports fans are the lifeblood of circulation. I pay for so much stuff. I don't have to pay for it Cleveland, the Cavaliers Podcast, the Orange and Brown Talk, the Ohio State Buckeye Talk. I get the newsletters. It's it's sports. How can the past be walking away from sports?
Congrats to you, by the way, because you have the kind of perfect scenario of frustrating teams and great coverage. Yes, this is something that I had for most of my something I had for a good second of my life. This funny thing is almost as soon as our franchise has got good, the paper went woke. So you know, the Cats are, you know, hoisting the Stanley Cup And they're like, well, but isn't Ovechkin problematic?
You know, by the way, I'm not a hockey guy. So when you made your references to Ave, yeah, you then filled it. He's a Russian. I really don't know anything about a hockey hockey.
Hugh Hugh, he has one of the greatest lines in the in the modern history of sports when he was asked about his injury early after coming into into the league, and Held responded, the Russian machine never break.
I feel like a bad guy from the Saloon film.
So no, he really is. But this is the thing.
You had these quality teams that people were trying to find problems with him at the same time they were just devoted to these these woke causes over and over again, and really the featuring of these voices that were more about kind of agonizing over how awful it was in a stain on the nation that we had, you know, the Washington Redskins here and to me, and I'm not being entirely facetious about this, I think that sports section died when Dan Schneyder sold the team because they basically,
you know, made buck off of just going after him for the pleasure of their event.
But it's a great sports the base. I don't like the Nationals. I'm an American leaguey, I'm a Guardian's guy. Yeah, But I read Tom Boswell and I don't like the Redskins. I don't follow them. I don't dislike them. They're national and I'm a Browns fan, but they've got great franchise. The Caps are you know, forever, they're like the Calves. They'll never win anything, but I guess the Cavs won in twenty sixteen. You've got a great base of people, and you can sell newspapers and.
And here's here's there's another element of this hue that you you probably know or just you know, can can incline towards there. They are the broadest and most diverse in terms of any of the unifying elements in DC. You're right, you have to make second white fans together with completely opposite political views, and they are you know,
joined at the hip, cheering for their team. So it's actually this great you it's one of the few unifying things in this area, which, by the way, is an area where there are people who actually not everyone is transitory. Not everybody just comes in and out. And that's why you know, my my mom gets gets season package every year that US kids buy for her to go to
the Nationals games. She loves baseball, She scores the games, and she sits across from two old black dudes in their seventies and they and they just you know, go back and forth about which relievers they like and which people they hate, and that's the kind of thing is great for a community.
Well would you how would you rate the Beltway as a sports town? I've told people Cleveland may be the best sports town in America compared to la It certainly is about a thousand times better. And the Orange County with the Angels in San die Southern California, just does not love them the way that Cleveland does. When there's no alternative, how do you put the Beltway sports community in the d C?
D C is second tier. The reason that we're second tier is because it's actually a basketball town and the basketball team sucks, has always and has always sucked. I mean I and I saw I mean I saw Jordan on his on his tour here, I saw him in his in Yao Ming's first game here. I went to that one. And it's one of these things where just this is a this is an area that really is more basketball focused after the after the Redskins, and they
just don't have that. And unfortunately, until that gets good again, they're they're just well, take a.
Minute before we go to the break, We'll do a run. In the second segment, tell the tell the audience who George Michaels, Because when I moved there in eighty three, I was hooked immediately, and he was. He's a forerunner of ESPN, actually.
He really was. And and he had this amazing clip show and uh with with all sorts of funny jabs and and commentary and things like that. Uh, he was just an out sort of outsized personality. They made fun of it on SNL if you can look it up with George Wills Sports Machine, one of the epic one of the epic clips from from SNL with Dana Carvey, I believe. But it's one of these things that it was. It was just a forerunner of that idea that this
is a format that could work. You could do these package clip shows from all around the country and show kind of the best and the bloopers and everything like that. And it was must see viewing for me as a kid. And it's still something that I think of.
You watch the rest of the channel for Bob the Weatherman, Jim Nance. I mean, it was the greatest television local station I think I've ever watched consistently.
It was. It was incredible and and you know, we were both sounding like old guys.
Right, Well, I am an old guy. You're not, but I was. I was a dad kid.
But look, I think I think that this is a This is another situation where we have lost so much in terms of local coverage. We've lost local coverage that is high quality. We've seen so much of it just drained and not be replaced. And that's actually the news that people care the most about. It's very silly to mean that.
None of the none of the snow has been removed from d C.
You mean, why why does that happen? You know, well, you know there's a guy from New York mag you know, digs into it and finds out that there's not enough that they you know, they had promised a bunch of different snowplows and then they had far fewer that were actually out on the roads than Mayor Bowser had said. So my point is just like that, that local coverage is what we need back. We need to bring that back.
I'm gonna talk with Ben during break. But you folks out there, no matter how bad you think your local services are, they are not DC in a snowstorm. It is a nightmare still, and there's another one coming. Ben dominance. You will stay here and be here to talk to Ryan after the break stage. I am back with Ben Domini's during the break Ben, I'm going to save all the iron staff in the next segment. So let's talk
about a story that doesn't matter, Don Lemon. I think anyone who doesn't know how traumatized those kids are in that church and what the parents were thinking. Because churches have been invaded and people have been shot somewhat routinely over the last ten years. Do you think Don Lemon has a brain? How could he have done this?
That's a really tough question to answer you without the smirching somebody's characters. Look, I have a very very low opinion of Don Lemon. I think that he's a very stupid person. He has been incredibly misogynoust to several of my friends when he was at CNN. I do not like the man at all, but I think that they I generally viewed him as harmless, meaning stupid, rude, jerk, harmless. This was something that was truly harmful, harmful to a community,
harmful to a church. I cannot imagine what it would feel like sitting with I mean, you know when I when when we go to church, you know, the older daughter stays with me and and younger daughter goes to Sunday school, and and it's it's I cannot imagine what their reaction would be like to something like this. They would think that there was going something going on that was going to end up, you know, putting their lives at risk.
Yeah, Minnesota is an open and a close conceal carrie and a shell issue. There could have been people with hate in there. And and I honestly, I've seen too many clips Colorado Springs comes to mind where the guy drops the shooter at the door with a perfectly fired two rounds because he was going to shoot up the whole mega church.
Yeah, there are.
Parents thinking, I'm surprised they demonstrated didn't get a chair of.
The head I got. I gotta be honest, I think that they really, you know, not metaphorically dodged a bullet in the sense that this is this is a situation that could have gone much worse. But but look, we have to make a clear example of this situation. You don't get to just say I'm holding it. I'm holding a phone in my hand and I have a YouTube channel, so I can violate the law. And that's just not
the way that this works, you know. And it wouldn't work if I and a bunch of friends of mine decided to go into a mosque and start yelling at people, you know, and and that kind of thing, and then said, well, you know, I write for places and I'm on I'm on TV, so I get to do this. No, that's not the way that this works.
There is actually no constitutional protection. Some states have protection for journalists, but not the federal law. There's no status for journalists. Everyone's got the same First Amendment right and they do not include what Don Lemon did. Now I'm I'm not too sure I do more than give him a hefty fine. He's gonna Abbey Lole is not cheap. I almost went to work for Stan Brandon Abbey Lowle when I left the Array administration, So.
Why so why is it always Abby Lowle? Always?
It's really good? And if Hunter Biden had started out with Abbey Lole, he would not have ended up convicted, but he wouldn't have tried to pull a fast one. In my humble opinion, I think he ends up with cases because he's really good. I don't know, do you think Don Lemon's out of money to pull a stunt like this.
I don't think that he actually does, though I will say we don't actually know how much money he got from X when he was briefly hired, you know, to be a journalist for them and then promptly dismissed after an uncomfortable interview with Elon. I think that this is I think this is a situation that has to happen on a certain level just to send the message that this is something that you can't do a great or just some random new cut. We're coming back on the network. Extend by that, but I disagree.
Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett, Ben Dominics, host of the Big Ben Pod, is with a great episode this week, including Bill Mallusian, who I did not know is going up to cover Congress, and that wonderful guy from Great Britain who really How did you find Winston Marshall? I'd only seen him once.
Winston is a phenomenal guy. He is he has his face. Do you know why he's famous? No, Winston Marshall is famous because he was a banjo player in Mumford and Sons. He got kicked out of the band or essentially politely asked to leave in British fashion, after he endorsed a book by Andy No and then refused to apologize for
endorsing the book. Oh and he is I think personally both brilliant and a guy who fully understands what's going on with the UK, Europe and the American relationship and how toxic Britain in particular has become toward its own heritage.
Which I good for you for grabbing him. That was he's in the news right now and I thought it was an excellent get let's talk now, what does Ben Dominic you think is going to happen hereon? Is it go or no go? This weekend? Are we going to be talking about it again a Friday from now about whether it's go or no go?
Well, personally, I thought it was going to have a little bit more time. But then I will admit that off air with your producer he reminded me that there is a certain anniversary on Sunday of that that I think might appeal to the President in terms of just you know, making for a good truth social post. And I think that also, you know, one of the things that we know about Donald Trump is that he makes decisions before he makes the decision, meaning he has already
decided what he is going to do. It's just it's just a sort of a he has this kind of meandering way of saying, Oh, well, you know, we're going to talk and we're going to see what's going to happen, and you know, maybe there's a deal to be worked out, and maybe there's something that he's already decided what he's going to do. And I think that we know that by now when he comes to foreign policy, you know, he had determined he was going to do the Maduro
thing well before it happened. Okay, they had more than a month of lead up time and practice and everything going into it to make that happen. And so I think the president has already decided that he is going to do this. It's just a matter of his timing. And I think that's probably going to be within the next couple of days. Uh, and we're gonna have to I mean, dude, this is this is uncharted territory.
Oh, this is big and this by the way I do this, that can be anything from a couple of blown up by our G. C. Barracks to thinking what's left of the Iridian Navy to blown up Karj Island to just doing an I.
Think it's I think it's one and two. Personally, I just think that that's I think he's gonna uh. I think this is gonna be significant. And look, there's a major roll the dice with this one that I'm not sure that you know, everyone in the country is necessarily you know, prepared for. But look, this president. Gosh, you he's in he's a year into his second term. Is he the most important foreign policy president that we've had in this.
Century from a nuclear r on.
Yes, you know, just in terms of the impact that he has had in this short amount of time. It's just it's astonishing to me because I just don't think that people necessarily expected it. I also think that it's going to put some people in a bind around him, because you know, the whole argument for him that was danced by a certain segment of people who said, you know, who basically tried to pretend that Donald Trump was a dove, which is not true and it's never been true, you know.
But then there's also people who I think tried to kind of frame him as being something that he wasn't look he sees the opportunity here. And I think that this guy actually has deep empathy for the people who are getting killed in the streets. And that's something that you know, you saw when it came to the young people getting killed in Ukraine. He always brings it up.
It's as if you know, he can't stand the fact that journalists sort of forget to mention the death counts and stuff like and and reports of that nature are being put on his desk on a daily basis.
Now, John Radcliffe is the bog, the dog that never barks, But the director of the Essential Intelligence must go in there every day with more pictures and more numbers, and the numbers on some of the independent reporting both in Iran and Israel getting up closer to seventy thousand people were murdered.
Me, I mean, this is it's astronomical. I mean, it's incredible in terms of the of the degree of bloodshed that is going on. And I think that there is an opportunity here to achieve something good, to achieve something that could remake the maps and be a great benefit not just to us but our allies. And I think the president has probably already decided what he's going to do, and it's just a matter of time until he doesn't.
Ben dominised there were a lot of people who were invested in the idea of making Iran into a responsible regional player. President Obama and his whole team, President Biden, their whole team, all the appeasers. They really thought they could bring Iran into the community of nations. Do you think any of them have realized in the aftermath of this horrific two weeks what this regime was never planned
straight with them, that they got taken. In other words, they answered the prints from Africa's email and setting money.
To you. I think Ben Rhodes wakes up every morning, looks himself in the mirror and says, I am a handsome man with a full head of hair. So look, I do not think there is any there is there is no willingness on their part and I have certainly not seen it publicly. I do not expect to see it. To look at this situation and to have any kind of reconsideration of all the bad decisions that they made, and they were terrible. I mean it really it set us back in ways that you know. I think historians
will write about, you know, in significant ways. But look, the point at this juncture, I think that we have to hope for and pray for if you are you know, of the prayerful mind, is that whatever operation that happens is one that Americans can execute with success, because I think that that will be of great benefit to the people of Iran, and I think that it will be something that will help ideally prevent this continued blowd to prevent this type of rampant loss of life that we
have seen, and set the regime back on its heels in a significant way.
Do you think Americans are aware that they could at the aridions might be able to hit the Lincoln they hit, They sent ICBMs and they hit our ballistic missiles, and they hit Alosad Air Base very precisely. They have precision. Got do you think they can kill a lot of Americans before they go down?
I absolutely think that they can. And Hugh, I don't think that Americans are aware of that. I just don't. I don't think that this story has been you know, fully unspooled, and I think that people are not really paying attention to it. They've been focused more on the domestic stories around Ice and Minnesota and everything else like that. You know, in the linked in recent weeks, they haven't been paying as much attention to what's going on there.
And part of that, of course, is is the Iranian regimes total crackdown, you know, complete lockdown on on the ability of people to get footage out in the way that we normally experience it in conflicts. But look, you know, that's something that I think people are going to have to wake up to. And there's a very real possibility that something like that happens.
And that's last question. Man, if the United States government shut down the internet in the United States, what would it do to our growth there? There's no business happening in Iran right now. There's no backup when you turn the internet off anywhere.
No, And I think that, and I think that this is something that the protesters know as well. Uh and they and this and look, there's a long story that gave to this point. You know, this is this is good, This is there's a lot of chickens coming home drus here in terms of in terms of how we got here, why there is such a divide between the people and
the regime. Why there is a possibility here of actually having you know, a stable nation ideally, I mean in the wake of this there isn't there is an opening. There's a glean men.
All right for the praying people, That's what we'll pray for. Ben Dominic, host of a Big Ben podcast. People go and listen to it, like and subscribe it. Fox News contributor Extraordinary and that podcast is one of the best in America, The Big Ben Podcast. Go and listen to it, stay tuned to the US show Welcome Back to America. I'm Hue Hewitt and the Relief Backtors video West. Eli Lake is the host of the Breaking History podcast, a contributor to the Free Press, and an expert on Iran.
You'll hear him twice this weekend on my podcast because I'm putting together all my long interviews on Iran. That's gonna be a four hour podcast and then this weekend. Eli about forty minutes ago, Open Source Intel, which is one of my favorite and I think legitimate sites for open source intel, posted senior US military officials informed the leadership of a key US ally in the Middle East that Donald Trump could authorize a US attack on Iran
this weekend strikes could commence as early as Sunday. The Ally was informed if the US decides to move forward sources tel drop site news, what do you make of that? What do you make of this situation?
I am not a fan of drop site news, so I don't know quite what to make of that. I can tell you in my own reporting queue that one of the big factors here is that the United States does not have enough of the interceptors we use in our THAD and Patriot missile defense systems, and that has been a problem that frankly, our defense planners and past presidents going back twenty years should have done something about. We've had national security and defense strategies for a long
time that has anticipated the need for these interceptors. But after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and our assistance to Ukraine, which I supported, and then of course the use of these interceptors in the Twelve Day War and the exchanges between Israel and Iran, the cupboard is bare and we don't have the capability. So that's one factor that I know has been weighing on the planning and so forth. And then I don't know what to make of it.
Trump himself, as we know, is the decider. He has said at times that you know, he would love to do a deal and that his conditions I don't think are acceptable to comminate. So at some point I would imagine the military option will be used. But on the other hand, you know, he said he was negotiating, you know, right before the Twelve Day War, and that was I think one of the greatest moments of his presidency or any presidency in my memory. So we'll see what happens.
But I know that there is this hard power restraint. Iran still has ballistic missiles and we need to shoot them down, and we don't have enough interceptors to do that to defend our bases and our allies that.
Would argue, wouldn't it for a massive first strike coordinated with Israel because Israel is likely on the receiving end of those ballistic missiles as well as our basis.
Yes, and I think Israel's obviously knows that it's a target, and we saw at the end of the Twelve day war, you know, some of them get through and and in some ways, you know, the Iranians are are aiming, you know, for civilians the Iranians have threatened, you know, our basis and so forth, so we'll see it is though, I think whatever happens, Hugh, let's just take a step back. This is this is a regime and death spiral. Sadly they're going to take a lot of Iranian citizens along
with them. But I don't know how they recover the economic vice that they're in right now. They don't have a way out and at a certain point, you know, if you can't pay your goon squads, historically speaking, they don't, They're not going to fight out of you know. I don't think you know, there's there's I would my assessment would be that there's not even ten percent at this point of the population that even once Kamene would let alone, would fight for him.
Now, Hamone is a nut, is a fanatic, and I am afraid. He in his bunker and if anything starts to just pushes every button he can Hitler style. I agree with that.
Yeah, yes, I think that's probably right. I think he's a he's an he's a millenarian, end times apocalyptic kind of figure, and I don't I think he would he would prefer to go out in a blaze of glory in some ways. Ideally, I would love to see him face a kind of people's tribunal from Iranians, and then I would love to see him hanged on the gallows that he uses against Iranian dissonance.
But I ask you about American media. Yeah, there are four stories today Iran, you and I am talking about it, Minnesota, warsh Bang named the FED chair, and Don Lemon. What are the relative importance of those four stories?
Iran is the most important? And it's your great credit. You have done a great job on your program kind of talking about it. That that that changes so much, not just the Middle East. It changes how we think about nuclear non proliferation. I think it changes the great power balance. I think it affects the Russia war with
Ukraine because Iran is a strategic partner with Russia. And it's a great It's an important story for democracy because I do think that that's what the Iranian people want, not necessarily what you know Trump has articulated, but I think if his actions can lead to a kind of democratic restoration of sorts or a transition to democracy, I think it's world's historic far more important. As much as I think you know obviously understand why Ice and Minnesota
is in the news. You know, Don Lemon, it's a bit of a stunt, and the Federal Reserve is important, but Iran I think outpaces them all.
I agree, and by a lot. Now, does the media coverage and thanks for your kind words, but does the media coverage reflect the fact that what goes on in Iran, particularly if the regime were to collapse and thirty five thousand people killed, although I saw a number today of sixty eight thousand killed. What is wrong with the American media? Is it that they're afraid to cover Irun? Don't know how to that the coverage indicts Obama and Biden?
What do you think it is? And fairness, it's a hard target. US Western publications don't have the kind of resources there. But I think it's also something that you know, there are plenty of Iranians who are getting information and outlets like Iran International that can be used in some ways to kind of get reporting. And I think it's also just there is it's in the kind of constituency that we saw, you know, with a sort of radicalized leftist base with we saw with the God of War.
But Iran's behind it. I mean, if if we can get rid of this, I think it'll be really one of an enormous accomplishment right up there, you know, with Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan.
And I think with HW getting Iraq out of Kuwait many many years ago, yes, last.
But also managing managing the end of the Cold War correctly. HWS deserves a lot of credit along with Reagan obviously, but like HW was in a period where things could have gone a lot of different ways, he managed to help unify Germany. Uh we do not credit HW enough. I certainly didn't when I was a younger writer. Uh, but I have much more of an appreciation for him now.
I want to play for you a cut from the Oval today. It's Donald Trump talking to an ABC reporter. Cut number three.
And why are you? Who are you with? You're a loud person?
Loud go ahead, go ahead, please, go ahead, go ahead.
The way is truly one of the worst.
So, uh, Eli, this sort of back and forth with the press has an impact. It does reduce the credibility of all news. I think it does have an impact.
What do you think can I make us lightly and humorous remark? I hope it's humorous. Most columnists, like myself, we kind of secretly want to be president or a secretary of state. We have the first president who actually would rather sometimes be a media critic, Like I think he wants to be a columnist.
You know.
To me, I'm like, you're the president, man, like you could do what you want, you make the news. But you know he's obsessed with it.
So I think the method is just to de legitimize legacy media. And after ten years, it's been ten years of this Eli. That's why their numbers are down. Something from Bloomberg. I came from Bloomberg. I was with daily based Newsbek s. I've been in mainstream media. Mainstream media has just credited itself brings back ELI of breaking history in the free press bank. You falling on at Eli Lake Hiatt, you Hewitt. You've heard me talk a lot about consumer Shelluler, how you can switch your carrier and
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to one one forty four to fifty four. That's one eight hundred and four one one forty four to fifty four. Don't forget. My code is Hugh John Ellis. John is the founder and editor in chief of News Items, which I often quote on the program and begin each weekend weekend review show with him. John I sent you a note saying can you add and sculpt the issues a bit to Iran. You've got other stuff we want to talk about, but let's start with the OS open source
intel post of eleven minutes ago. Senior US military officials have informed the leadership of a key US ally in the Middle East that Donald Trump could authorize US attack on Iran this weekend. Strikes could commence as early as Sunday. Other information suggests we're still getting our ducks in a row. What do you think of the likelihood and the consequences.
I don't know the likelihood, but it seems more likely than not. You know, we have Israel would very much like us to help them take out the nuclear facility, and our allies in the region, particularly South Saudi Arabia,
are much more hesitant to endure a US attack. The thing people forget is that in September of twenty nineteen, Iran sent laser guided missiles to hit the Saudi Aramco oil processing facility, and they had the option of hitting the tanks and blowing the whole thing to smithereens, or hitting various pipes which would not blow the whole thing
to smitherings. The Iranians chose the pipes, which was a strong message to Saudi Arabia that they could have hit the tanks, and that, I think is that is etched into the memory of Saudi Arabia in acid. So I think that our principal ally on the air side is very, very reluctant to see a US strike.
You often talk on news items with Richard haw sometimes on your Night Owls podcast, the former head of the ACCOUNTSL on Foreign Relations. What's he thinking about this because he represents sort of mainstream, center right real politique.
Yeah, I think he thinks, you know that the US has a lot of options. They can obviously strike the nuclear facility, but they can also say, look, we will strike you, but if you curtail you know, these activities and those activities which would include, you know, support for armed proxies, limits on the number and range of ballistic missiles, that maybe, you know, you could get some agreement there,
he thinks. And I think most people think it's unlikely that the Iranians will ever give up the nuclear program. We can delay it, but they'll keep at it. So his is sort of what can you what can you realistically expect to get? He makes the point, and I think it's the right one. Which is the greatest weakness. The glaring weakness of the regime is the economy. So as much pressure as you can possibly put on their economy, the much more likely you are to get positive results.
In other ways, how do you think our friends in China and Russia view this?
I think that I think of it as from China's point of view, a lot of oil comes from Iran, but that they're less and less dependent upon that. I think from China's point of view, anything that distracts the US is a good thing, and I think the same is true for the Russians. If the US is preoccupied with a war in the Middle East, they're going to be less likely to pay attention to what's going on
in Ukraine. China. Same thing that they will be They would calculate that the US would be less interested in what's going on in Taiwan. So I think they think any kind of action that causes the US to be distracted from the Chinese side and the Russian point of view, it's probably something they would like.
Well. I was a question on this topic nineteen ninety one. Sadam invades Kuwait and the world quickly agrees that's just not acceptable under international norms. Very similar to what happened after Ukraine was invaded the second time, murdering. You know, I saw an estimatede of sixty eight thousand. It had been between thirty and forty thousand of Iron's own citizens, and I saw sixty eight thousand a day. In any event, it's the biggest scene since Bobby Are. Can the world
just afford not to do anything about that? John Ellis, I.
Don't know that we can immediately. I think over time we can certainly do a lot to make the regime pay for that. The regime, you know, it's advertised as sort of a theocraft autocracy. In fact, the theocracy sits on top of what is essentially a military operation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and they are willing to kill as many people as possible to stay in power. So it's going to be bloody, and you're not going to win
a war against them in any near term way. But over time, if you wear down the economy and if you keep up the pressure, I think that public support will eventually collapse.
Oil is at sixty five dollars and fifty nine cents creweds benchmark. If it goes to seventy, a lot of people are going to be under stress. You sent me a note about the Norwegian Sovereign Well Fund stress test. What did it show?
The stress test they do a stress test to see a climate disaster you meltdown in the AI space. Just to make sure that they have two trillion dollars their management. So they have to pay very careful attention to what would happen to markets if something terrible were to happen. And what they found was that in the climate emergency of some kind that led to food shortages and so on and so forth, that the value of their portfolio
would decline by twenty five percent. If the AI bubble burst, the value of their portfolio might decline by as much as forty five percent. So it's not you know, these are stress tests, they're extreme and so on and so forth, But it does give you an idea of if there were some kind of major event, just how vulnerable you know the financial markets are? Too extreme volatility.
Telling you about vulnerability. I used to write a weekly column for the Washington Post, had a wonderful run there. It is my policy never to to drag former colleagues. But you sent me a note about it. I had no idea they were this much in trouble.
Yeah, the Washington Post. My friend Matt Murray is the editor in chief of the Washington Post, and you said the reason that he didn't really enjoy his job when he was the editor in chief of the Wall Street Journalist that he had to fire, you know, one hundred people every quarter. They're now talking about basically shutting down their sports coverage, drastically reducing their international coverage, and immediately apparently they're going to lay off three hundred reporters and editors.
So there's been you know, as much the media loves to talk about nothing more than the media, and so there's been a lot of back and forth about how durable this all is, and it certainly is for the people who are going to lose their jobs. The question is is the Post viable and the Post turn it around, And the answer to that is probably no. And so the question is, well, then why are they doing this, you know, why don't they just shut it down? Why
lose any more money? And the reason for that is that the Post is actually a very attractive asset to a range. You know, a wide range of buyers. Bloomberg would be interested, News Corp. Would be interested, Private equity that focuses on media would be interested. I mean, there are six or eight groups that would be interested in acquiring the Posts. So if the Post cleans up his balance sheet in twenty twenty six, then may be able to fetch a much higher price than they would at present. Now.
I don't believe in mind reading, but have you seen anything that explains why Jeff Bezos may have grown tired of his experiment. I thought it was a good move for Amazon, putting it to HQ two across the river from the Post, that it would be make sense to move in big time and get the Post. But seventy five million dollars a year in pocket change, even to Jeff Bezos, yeah.
I think, I mean, I think the calculation aside from maybe he wanted to be a publisher of a major news outlet, but from an Amazon point of view, owning the Washington Post gives you a certain protection against congressional inquiries and executive antagonism, or at least so he thought. Trump completely upended that model. I mean, I can't imagine Barack Obama or George W. Bush or you know, Bill Clinton, never thinking about going after the Washington Post. But Trump
had no problem doing that. And thus what Bezos thought was an asset, something that would help him get through stuff that he thought he would he needed to get through in Washington, or at least prevent him from being you know, attacked by Congress or regulatory agencies or whatever. It turned out not to be an asset. It turned out to be a liability almost one hundred percent because
of Trump. And so you know, what do you do? Well, you can turn around the paper, you can try to or you can put the paper in proper order and sell it.
And I can see what they're gonna do. You persuaded me that that's what's going on there. John Ellis, Editor and chief founder of News Items. You can read news items every morning. It is the thing to go to every single morning. But you got to go to news Items. Google news Items John Ellis, and you will find yourself there. One of the best, if not the best morning new heads around in America. Thank you, John,