Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there, and of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Marnin Glory and evening Grace America, I'm you, Hewittt. Welcome to the Big Weekend Pod. Four weeks of the war with Iran are in the books.
America continues to win decisively alongside of our ally Israel. Two allies have stood up verbally strongly with us, the United Arab Emirates and Ukraine, and all the people out there have been wondering, shall we really be supporting Ukraine?
Take note. Old Europe is nowhere to be found. I mean they sit around, they say they're going to participate in opening the Straits of Horror moves, but we haven't seen a British ship, we haven't seen a French ship Wenesday in anything from Old Europe that we liberated twice in the last century. But the United Arab Emirates, they're getting into the fight, and Ukraine has been in the fight for weeks, sending all the anti drone technology to protect our golf allies. So when it comes time to
remember this for let's remember who was there and who wasn't. Now. I've been a long time supporter of NATO. Everyone listens to my show knows that. But at some point you have to say, are those countries broken beyond repair? Now? Maybe they'll revive. It's possible Nigel Farage or somebody else will rise in Britain. It's possible that Macrone's successor won't
be a weak need surrender monkey. I don't know it's possible, but them been there thus far, and UAE and Ukraine have been And when I count wins and losses and friends and allies, I want you to remember that Ukraine United Arab Emirates. Secondly understated by our defeatist and demoralized legacy media is the fact we're winning decisively. We're winning so fast you can't even leave how fast we're winning. We're winning in every part of the country, We're winning
in every battlefield. We have lost seventeen Americans, another a dozen are severely wounded. Their families are suffering grievously. It is not a war without costs. We've lost two f fifteen to friendly fire. We've lost a dozen drones that were old school. But the Israelis have lost between twenty and twenty five civilians and soldiers and a number of direct hits on their infrastructure. Our golf allies have lost
more than twenty of their people. So it's not a bloodless for and we are smashing Iran on every level. And there's no telling who's in charge. There's no telling what is a lie and what isn't a lie. But so long as the war goes on, I'm all in favor of it because Iran's killed more than a thousand Americans since the revolution in nineteen forty seven. They are our sworn enemy. They chant death to America and they're sleep and they mean it. They want it to happen,
and I am so glad this is finally happening. And I'm still broadcasting because they've been killing Americans for as long as I've been on the air, and I've been on the air a long time. Finally, I want to point out two things. First of all, a lot of people are mad at Donald Trump for not giving a Churchillian speech, you know, summoning the nation to war. We will fight on the beach at a different time, and a lot of people now he's not clear, and he
changes his mind and he's ambiguous. I will use a Churchillian if you listen to Doctor Ironer and I talk about Winston Churchill on the Hillsdale Dialogues all the time. I've been in Churchill's The Gathering Storm for a year now. If you listen to us talk about Churchill, I think you will have heard us refer to the famous I think it was a toast that he gave ironically in Tehran at the Tehran Conference in nineteen forty three, and I believe he gave the toast to Stalin, and the
toast went in wartime. Truth is so precious that she must always be attended by a bodyguard of lives. In other words, you've always got to use misdirection in war. You don't tell people what you're going to do. You don't tell them what you've done. You don't tell them what losses you've suffered. You tell them the truth that we're in a war and we got to win it. It's an evil regime. You tell them big victories. Churchill kept suppressed the news of sinkings sometime for weeks at
a time and a month at a time. But we are winning decisively. But spare me the og. He hasn't given us the battle plan in detail to put on the front page of the New York class. No, we're
trying to win. And then, finally, the biggest picture of all what Donald Trump is doing right now with this war, along with Secretary of Exist Sherman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Cain, everyone up and down the chain of command, and everyone a Jay to the Shain of Command, Vice President's Secretary of State, Gang of eight, and the Senate
in the House. People on the inside, they know that he's restoring American deterrence which is lost by Joe Biden when he withdrew precipitously from Afghanistan in the summer of twenty twenty one, which led to the Ukraine War. He's also restoring deterrence with Iran, which was given away by Barack Obama in the JCPOA, which was the worst deal in history, as President Trump said. And he's doing it in a way the same way that Reagan and George H. W.
Bush did over a period of time. Reagan started with GREATA small operation killed a bunch of Cubans, got him off of Grenada. George H. W. Bush followed with the Panama invasion, then with the big punch in Gulf War one, and after Gulf War one one hundred Hour War. Though it was perhaps concluded too soon, it re established in the minds of our enemy, do not mess with America.
That same message is coming through right now now. And if you have not yet read Mobilized by Schum Sandcar, that's spelled shyam sa nkr Sandcar and it's simply called Mobilize. Schum wrote it with Madelon Hart, and I talked to him. You can find it over at my YouTube channel. On Thursday.
Realize that, yeah, we didn't build a lot for the last thirty years, and maybe that we got lucky that we're now building what we need for the next generation of warfare, which is completely different from what we needed to win the Cold War. Golf four one, Golf four two, the March to Baghdad. It's a different kind of war.
And right now you'll hear me ask Sankar this if you listen to it, how soon can we build a long range drone with a heavy payload by the hundreds of thousands that can take off from anywhere in the United States and go anywhere in the world. Because when we've got that, we've got the terns. And by the way, when can we deploy that Leonidas system that you talked about. The Leonidas system is a way to knock down drones?
And how soon can we defeat the chicoms Leonidis. The battlefields of Ukraine and Iran are showing us stuff, But more importantly, they're putting to end. And I don't know if it'll be immediate or if it'll take a year, but this regimes finished in Iran. Everybody hates it. They're out of money, their leadership has been destroyed, their weaponryes and the shambles. They're getting off one or two missiles a day, sometimes five, a very great cost to Israel, annoying, exhausting, tiring.
Ninety percent of Israel support the war because they do not have a defeatis demoralized press. So sit back and listen. They have John Allison Ellis items to talk about, some of the headlines you might not have seen. I've got Charles C. W Cook, who is pro war sort of. And then I've got Eli Lake who's very pro war. And so the new news and review is coming up this week is a fabulous weekend review the Big Weekend Pod. Thank you for listening. Enjoy the Big Weekend Pod Studio
Beltwigh Today it is the Weekend Review program. And what a week it's been. The conclusion of the fourth week of the war with Iran. I begin as I do most Fridays and weekends with John Ellis, Founder of News Items, editor in chief of News Items, and John always sends me the stories he wants to cover, and I'm glad the first story was Iran. John, I'm going to give you the stage, but I'm going to say beforehand, I try and read everything about the war, listen to the
informed speculation, and I'm an optimist. I think it's going very very well. I'm not sure you are, so have at it well. I think.
It's difficult because the Ranians have a lot of leverage with the straight being able to close the straight essential which creates stress, you know, all the way down the line. East Asia obviously the ones that feel it most acutely first. So it also seems unlikely that that can be resolved without the commitment of US troops quote on the ground end quote. And I think that's what President Trump is
leading up to. And anytime troops are on the ground, you want to be you want to be hopeful that need it'll work out, and you want to be realistic about the fact that it might go awry.
Now I'm reminded, and I remind everyone of an ironically something Churchill said in Tehran in nineteen forty three to Stalin in more time. Truth is so precious it must be protected by a bodyguard of lives. So I don't believe anyone on anything. All I can tell is facts and the facts from scentcom and the idea they do seem to dictate to us that the Iranian military is crumbling. It's in shambles. Oh.
I think that the you know, the projection of force that has been executed by the Americans and the Israelis is just absolutely astonishing. And to me it's a wonder that the regime, the Iranian regime still stands. I don't think there really is a regime anymore. I think it's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that remains. They have a very decentralized command structure, and so if you know, if one part gets blown up, other parts all across the
country keep going. And really the question is how much pain can they withstand. They've withstood enormous pain so far. The historical record the Iran Iraq War in the nineteen eighties. They lost six hundred to eight hundred thousand people in that war. So they certainly have a history of being able to withstand a lot of pain.
That's absolutely true. In there once again relying on children recruits. But that was forty seven years ago and the revolution was fresh and the enthusiasm was there. Now the real is worth nothing. And the people I talked to it you tell me, if you talk to other people, adamal Mark Montgomery and others, they tell me that the operation in the Strait, while difficult, is not that difficult, especially if we have allies, and you pointed out to me we do. We've got real allies who are going to
help us clear and keep the straight open. Once that's done, They've played all their cards, haven't they. I think they have.
And the other thing is, we have friends who have family in Tehran, and you know, on the ground so to speak. No one's looking forward to getting slaughtered by leading and uprising in downtown Tehran, but there's real hope that the US operation will be successful, and that has
to eat away at the regime. I think the card that the Iranians have is that the longer they can delay the you know, petroleum products getting through the strait, the more difficult it is for everyone all around the world, you know, to continue on with their normal economic activity. If it's done, If this operation is successful in the next two to four weeks, then you know it'll it'll slowly but certainly go back to where we were before.
If it goes much longer than that, then it really becomes problematic.
Last on this topic, John, I've told people I think it will go to early June, because at that point it's either frozen or it's over. And I also think the Trump card is he has to win. He can't lose. If he loses, it's the most important sequence of events of his two presidencies, and it will mark him forever. Do you agree with me on the stakes.
Yeah, I mean it's existential for both sides, right, I mean, for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, this is it.
If they don't.
You know, if if they don't quote, well, if they don't not lose, then they're dead. Then it's over. The population will turn against them. It'll be curtains for them. And for Trump. He's not going to die, obviously, but he will politically, he'll be dead. So both sides, you know, need to well, the Iranians need to not lose and the Americans need to win. And well, you know, there's no other other way.
Now. I want to combine two of your topics, both the AI backlash and the Big Energy conference in Houston this week, because it seems to me to be that in a graded we need AI. AI projects are increasingly running into local nimbiism and that was, I guess to be expected, but we really can't afford it.
Why don't you explain, Well, you know, AI needs electricity essentially, and in order, we don't have enough on the grid. So we have to build out capacity with dedicated natural gas plants, with dedicated solar, with dedicated wind, and as much of it as we possibly can to keep the data Summer Data Centers Humming, twenty four to seven. There's real concern amongst voters in America about big bad Ai
and the big bad companies behind them. My son in law is working on a solar project in West Texas and he thought, you know, they got all their approvals, they were going to provide power to a data center there, and he you know, everything was going smoothly, and then it'll was all reversed. And at first he thought, well, that's because people in Texas don't really like solar power, but actually that wasn't the reason at all. What they
didn't like were the data centers themselves. Uh so they you know that that populous backlash I think is not just about the noise and the water that's used to make these data centers go. I think it's also a concern that these big companies basically are rolling over everybody and that they have no voice in in how this is happening. And we're seeing this backlash everywhere. I mean, if you see it in West Texas and you know you're you're you're looking at a genuine populist issue, arising.
Tea party sort of stuff. And I got to say, I talked yesterday with Shiam Sankar volunteered got this new book out, Mobilized, which I read in two days fabulous book. We got to build a lot of ai DA data centers, We got to build a lot of factories to produce drones and anti We got to build a lot. So people have to make the argument to Americans that we need to build. Is anyone doing that? I don't think so.
I mean Trump has been all in on AI and data center, So that's a positive. You know, having the president fully supportive is a good thing. But there's a story in the Washington Post today that the US has used up eight hundred and fifty Tomahawk cruise missiles and we only make about three hundred a year. Are you know you and I have talked about this before, that we don't have mind sweepers. We have these weapons that
don't work. We lack munitions where we need them. You know, we need to build out much greater capacity for Tomahawk cruise missiles. It's stunning to me, how you know, how the war has revealed the deficiencies in our in our defense manufacturing capabilities.
Sankar makes the argument, he persuaded me, it's not the stockpile that's the issue, it's the production line behind it. You have a big stockpile, but if you haven't got a production line, You're screwed. The good news is people like Palmer Lucky any names throughout this entire book, which I recommend to everyone, called Mobilize. He names about a half dozen, maybe even a dozen entrepreneurial companies that are building the weapon system that Ukraine is using in that
we're using and we can mass produce. John ellis if we choose to. But I don't like your son in law's experience. We got to go to the break to talk about gambling because we really to talk about gambling. But are they overcoming are they going to overcome the resistance in the Texas model? I don't know.
I mean those you know, those permits and permissions that were granted have been withdrawn. So my son in law sort of stuck. They don't know what to do. You know, their choices are to bring legal action, which you know and out of state company bringing legal action against against the local.
Advisory board or whatever it is. That's going to be difficult. So I did that for thirty years. That was my land News practice for thirty years. Never good to be out of state against the locals. John Allison is going to stay with me one more segment during the break, which we'll put on the Big weekend Pod, Don't Go Anywhere, America. I'm back with John Ellison. John, I wanted to talk
to you about the story on gambling and baseball. Last night, Baseball Season Open Guardians won two home runs from Chase to Lotter, only the seventh rookie to ever do that in his first game in the Major League. But gambling is hanging over baseball. Two Guardians are not playing this year because they're going to go to jail, probably for gambling, and gambling is ubiquitous everywhere. Do you think there's a way to teach gen alpha and gen beta that this
is a crazy, addictive, life ruining habit. I don't know.
I find the whole gambling thing and prediction markets to be extraordinarily dangerous. You have a generation of kids that are you know, have a view or many have the view that their financial futures are by no means secure, and so they have sort of turned to kind of I'll win the lottery or I'll be able to you know, bet correctly and therefore make more money to have a better financial future, and that is.
Not going to work out.
And the amount of advertising that goes into urging people to gamble. I mean I watch a fair amount of local news and stuff it in sports events on TV, and the amount of advertise, I would say that half of the ads I see on you know, a Knicks game or whatever have to do with betting. So it's really discouraging and you know, the horses out of the barn and I'm not sure we can get it back
into the barn. So it's going to take some real leadership at the national level, end at the state level to you know, encourage people to you know, you know, cap them out that they're willing to bet or something. But it's it really is a it's really troubling.
I think, Yeah, the only answer is actually federal preemption and coupled with maybe nil a lot, because it's going to bankrupt a generation. They just don't realize it yet. That Arch Schlater is a name every Buckeye football fan knows. Great quarterback went to jail for gambling. Event. It's an addiction, and it gets there's a bell curve and it's going to get so many people and it's going to get more.
I'm glad you wrote about it in the news items. If you want to subscribe to news items, just Google news Items and John, you'll be smarter to anybody else by six fifteen every morning if you do get it so John Allis follow him on exit Ellis Items. Thank you, John, I'll be right back. Welcome back, America. I'm to Hewett Charles C. W. Cook as my guest senior writer, Senior editor for National Review, podcaster Exurreinaire on The Editors and
his own podcast, The Charles C. W. Cook Podcast. Inexplicably a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, Charles, I was in your neck of the woods two weeks ago at Flagler College, guest of John Delaney. Had a wonderful time at Amelia Island and at Flagler. But have you ever been to the Kennedy Space Center.
Oh yeah, I took the kids last year.
What did you think of it?
I thought it was fantastic. I loved it. I'm into all that stuff though. It's one of the things I loved about America when I was little.
Well, I love it too, but I thought it was ineffectively educational. Other words, it was s Timu Disneyland and not educational enough. Did you find out what you needed to know? Did your kids.
Well, I mean it depends what you mean. We had a great time standing next to the huge rockets and going inside this space shuttle and so forth.
I suppecially right.
Maybe they could have been more reading, but we could do that at home. It was seeing set in five and a space shuttle and the original consoles they used on the Apollo program.
That was the best part.
All right. I like the memorial too. We'll have to talk about this at greater length, Charles. I want to start in an unusual way. I want to play for you something that Marco Rubyo said on the tarmac in Europe today about Cuba to a reporter and then break out brought out into Iran and the war, the information war. Here's what he had to say in response to question about Cuba cut number ten regime change. But now there seems to be a sense that perhaps President Trump.
Would be happy with the win, which would only entail an economic deal.
You said, the sense where do you get that sense from report? Well, there's a lot of reporting that there's a lot of faith any no, no, no, no, no. Any reporting on Cuba that you didn't get from me or the president is a liar because there're the only people working on pine change. We're warning you, guys, all these sources that are pitching you on Cuba, on Old Jack, Okay, they're not in the mix. I promise you they don't
know what the hell happens. What's your reaction to that statement, I think absolute clarity and truth.
Well, I think it's particularly appropriate given so much of the coverage of the war in Iran, about which, as you know, I have been ambivalent. But the coverage of the Iran war is driven by a lot of wish casting. There's a little bit of it on the pro war side, but the press seems to be running its own show. So I'm not surprised to hear Secretary of State Rubio exasperated that the same thing's happening on Cuba.
Well, you and I going to talk about Ironda, but I'm in with the Hawks, with Noah and Eli Lake and a few other people Eleana Johnson, John bad Or. I want to win, win, win, win, and make sure no one can say we do other than win. But I also don't believe anything that anyone says, including the President, because ironically enough, at the Terran conference in nineteen forty three, Churchill said to Stalin, in wartime, truth is so precious
it must be guarded by a bodyguard of lies. Why would we believe anyone about the war?
Yeah, sure, that's one reason, though I find it quite difficult to evaluate. And I've said over and over I'm someone agnostic because I just it's not that I'm a foreign policy expert anyway, but I find it so hard to know what's going on, to get past the agendas, to get past those lies.
It's a long way away.
It's not affecting Americans, particularly with the exception of gas prices. It's not likely in London in nineteen forty one. So yeah, it's pretty difficult to tell.
So what have you been able to glean that you think is reliable. I think we're kicking the living daylights out of the Iranian military and the regime, and they have one card, which is the Strait. And I also think that's not a particularly difficult though it is a dangerous mission, it's just not a difficult mission.
Well, I'm not sure we agree on the last part. We certainly agree on the first part. I think it's a one sided war. The United States has a remarkable military. It's done remarkable things. They clearly don't have the ability in Iran to fight back.
I don't really know what the state.
Of the regime, such as it is, is, but yeah, we're winning in that respect. I'm more worried about the Strait than you are, purely because I.
Am not sure that there is enough.
Willingness from the public and perhaps even from the President, to do what would be necessary to reopen it, especially given gas prices higher and the mid times are a few months away.
But I could be wrong.
I base my optimism only on the informed speculation of people like where Admiral Mark Montgomery's retired now, but he's let a carrier strike force group, and the fact that people like Aaron McLean and his guests at School of War seem to believe. It's also not a particularly difficult military objective, though it is dangerous to a small person. It's not the Battle of the Atlantic, but it's not nothing. I'll be right back with Charles c. W. Cook. Don't
go anywhere. I'm back now with Charles c. W. Cook. Charles, another Marco Rubio quote for you, cut number six on the Allies. Did they want to set up a tolling system? In the strengths of Hormons. Not only is this illegal, it's unacceptable, it's dangerous for the world, and it's important that the world have a plan to confront it. The United States is prepared to be a part of that plan. We don't have to leave that plan, but we were
happy to be a part of it. But these countries have a lot of state, not just to see seven countries, but countries.
In Asia and all over the world have a lot of state and should contribute greatly.
To that effort to ensure that need of the straits.
Of hormones or frankly, any international waterways should ever be something.
That's controlled or told by a nation state or.
By the terroristics of the government like the one that exists in Iran.
Today and that clerical, radical clerical regime. Now I don't want to beat up on you because you used to be British, Charles, but I am so disappointed in the United Kingdom and in France Old Europe. Meanwhile, people like Ukraine are doing their part. The Poles are stepping up to the extent that they can spare stuff. UAE is in the fight. What do you make of Great Britain and FRN Are they spent as forces in the world.
Yeah, and we talked about this last time. I think they're absolutely spent. I think they're run by people who don't think about foreign policy much, who are not interested in projecting power, who have come to the conclusion that the United States will protect them if push comes to shove, but that everything else can fall by the wayside.
The French.
We'd love to make jokes about the French in the US and especially in Britain, but the French do have a very proud military history. The big low point, of course, was that the first Hurdle in World War Two, But before that they were a remarkable fighting force and they've been a remarkable fighting force. More recently, they've just decided for now not to play the game. So yeah, basically they are spent.
We did talk about this three or four weeks ago. What we didn't get to Can a nation change its mind and reclaim? Can it come back?
Sure?
But it's very difficult, and it takes will and it takes time. Even missus Thatcher didn't get everything she wanted to done. That's not for lack of will on her part, although maybe some around her like will. She had eleven years. It's not enough. You have to commit to a part to do that. So you would need to see a substantial and long lasting change in Britain, France and other
nations before that happened. And I'm just not sure they've got it in them absence some sort of international cataclysm that pushes them into it, which I should be very clear, I don't want.
Oh, nobody does thirty seconds. In terms of anybody at all in the British political firmament who has the capacity to lead such a renewal, I don't think it's Nigel Farage. But is there anyone?
No, well, no, I don't think there is.
But of course, as we know from American history, that doesn't mean they don't exist. Nobody knew Abraham Lincoln would be the man to do it, Nobody knew George Washington would be the man to do it. Certainly nobody knew Churchill would be He was something of a laughing stock in the nineteen thirties. So if there is the will, if there's the demand, then often the supply catches up right.
Right back with Charles C. W. Cook standby Welcome Back America. Charles C. W. Cook is my guest. He's senior editor at National Review. Host they podcast that bears his name, Charles C. W. Cook podcast, frequent contributor to the editors. Charles. This is a long clip of President Trump on the Five last night, but it is very emblematic of how he communicates. He calls in to the highest rated show on cable. His face isn't on, He's just shooting the breeze with five hosts, cut number.
Fourteen, like the ultimate pol But I knew how well we did the second time, but the third time we made it too big to rig. So for those people that say the level of popularity, CNN, your friends at CNN, fake new CNN, one of the worst networks you'll ever say, one of the most dishonest, disgusting groups of people. But what happened is they did a poll and the poll came out yesterday, day before and is Trump losing MAGA support?
The poll was one hundred percent. And you know their polster, he's got a lot of energy and he's pretty good. He probably won't have a job very long. But he said, whoa, whoa. It was one hundred percent of the people, the MAGA people, and which is mostly I think MAGA is almost the whole Republican Party. You want to know the truth, Almost everybody endors wins. Almost every single person that I endorse wins.
And Kayley knows that better than anybody. She was witnessed to it for a long time and she's doing a good job, by the way, but almost everybody. So they did a poll, let's see it then two days ago, and I think you probably saw it, maybe you put it on, but it was one hundred percent support. So it's wrong. We have people that are weak or stupid or low IQ people that don't mind having a ran have a nuclear weapon. The MAGA people are smart. Now, that doesn't mean they want us over there. For like
Bush for for years, you know, just for years. I always said, don't go into a rack, but if you do, keep the oil. Well, we are a very powerful military with the most powerful military nation in the world, and we did a big number on them, and our people like it because they don't want to see us one hundred percent, think of it. One hundred percent in a CNN poll. A CNN poll, which are the worst polls, almost.
As bad as Fox poles. I hate Fox bowls well, so Charles A. What do you make of the method, and B what do you make of the message?
Well, I think the method's good. I think it's refreshing after Joe Biden. I have no issue with modern presidents using modern techniques. The message bothers me in so far as it's incomplete.
Trump's right.
He is in good standing with Republicans and in good standing with self identified MAGA supporters.
That's important.
You want to keep your base on side, but he does, and I think sometimes the right suffers from this issue. Conflate the right or the Republican Party or MAGA with the country and elections are one in the middle. He's not doing particularly well with independence, He's not doing well with Democrats, but he's never going to do well with Democrats. We do have a two party system. So less important than how he's doing with MAGA is how he's doing with everyone else. And I think there's a tendency with
Trump to ignore that. He effectively sees his supporters as the only people he has to please, and I worry about that, And you know you do not have disagreed on this a little bit, but I worry about that with Iran too. Okay, So one hundred percent of MAGA supports this action. That's good. I'd rather that than the opposite. But what does everyone else think? And how long is he going to be able to keep this up if the Poles keep looking like they do now.
I don't think we'll be able to judge the Iran war until after it's over, and probably a good bit of distance thereafter. But I do think it has the potential to be a pivot point in history, that if Iran were to go from the dark side to the right side, even to sort of neutral Swedish kind of side though they're in NATO. Now let me come up with a better analogy, but just not be the agent of evil that it's been for forty seven years. It would represent such a great win for the world. Am
I right about how important this moment is? Because I think we haven't had a moment like this since nineteen eighty nine about which we were aware when it was happening.
Yes you are.
I was saying on the editors this morning that I've spoken to a lot of military veterans in the last month, partly because of where I live in Jacksonville, it's near a naval base, and partly because they come to events I've spoken at. We get chatting, and pretty much every single one of them is elated by this because they say that if they served in Afghanistan or Iraq, Iran was instrumental in killing their friends.
Many of them have volunteered to go over.
Some of them are in the reserves and have volunteered to go over, And you do get the impression talking to them just how pernicious Iran has been in targeting Americans, in providing weapons and support to those who would hurt us. So, yes, I think you are right. I just think that if the politics and the virtue of this get too far upa then we'll have a problem.
And then a final question. I spent yesterday talking to Sham Sankar, who wrote this book which I recommend to you and to everyone who's serious about defense, so called Mobilized. He's the chief technology officer at Palenteer. And between what we're seeing on the Ukraine Russian front and now Ukraine's making long range strikes into rush against undefended LNG terminals and the drone warfare and the you know, let's pick off this besiege. You standing on the corner in Kum
and they're gone. War has changed completely and I don't even know how to articulate it. Do you agree with me about that?
Yeah?
And I must say I'm very worried at the moment because defense spending is about sixteen percent of the federal budget, but the way the politicians talk that you would think it was eighty And increasingly the argument against the wars it is to expect, which is not a good argument against the war. And people say, oh, if we spend the money on this or that instead, then we could do this or that. But we're actually spending most of our resources on entitlements and on social spending and not
most of them on defense. And I worry that we've got the balance wrong. I think you're right. I think there is a huge change of foot I think there are a lot of threats. I think we're underprepared. And the fact that the rhetoric is going in the other direction, that is that we're somehow wasting money or overspending on defense, is alarming to me because I think we should.
Be spending more on defense and less on social spending.
And I think if you read mobilize, the turn has happened. We don't have to spend as much per dollar of defense bought that we have been spending because the new systems don't cost what the old systems cost, and we're not burdened by technology costs if we're willing to shed the old. Charles gw cot bom him on Exit, Charles, you be joined by one of our favorite guests, Eli Lake at The Free Press, host of the Breaking History podcast. And I asked Eli for extended time today because we
got to talk you about the Iran War. But I have to start with the new episode of Breaking History because it absorbed an hour and a half of my time today because I kept replaying parts of it to make sure I got it right. Eliot, it's a fabulous, fabulous addition. Though I'd never heard of Kayla until today, and I only knew a little bit about the Red Brigade. Sometimes I wonder where you get your ideas from.
Well, this was Jay Solomon, who was a dear friend and a colleague at the Free Press. I had known he was working on this and its friends do. He'll tell me about it. You'll never guess where she is now. She's in Lebanon. She's doing this. And I just said, as soon as this comes out. I want to make sure I get we do a breakdown of the story, because it is a fascinating tale. I don't know if it's I think she is an I mean this in
the sense of she's an outlier. I think she's an extraordinary example of someone who would be willing to I think she is now putting her life in danger to follow her kind of radical belief that she is now aligning with them.
Well, she's resistance, but it's happened before. Is she in Iran now?
Well, no, she's not in Iran. She's in Lebanon. But she has traveled No, no, she traveled to Iran. So but she she's now based in Lebanon basically kind of working for Iranian Press TV, which is their propaganda arm.
And I saw a parallel to someone who we did an episode last year on, which is Ulrikameinhoff of the Bottom Mine Holf group of the Red Army faction in West Germany, as somebody who comes from and you could also look at this as the weather underground in America, which I've also looked into, and I've done work on
UH and breaking history as well. What is it when you have somebody who is basically raised with all the advantages of the West, people who go to college, who have all these opportunities in front of them, why did they then join the forces that are trying to destroy our country? And that was a question that that when you were a young aid to Richard Nixon, that was what America was kind of going through, because that was right after you saw the kind of weather underground in
the early seventies and some of these other offspring. Germany is a fascinating example because Alrika Meinhoff was such a successful celebrity journalist who then literally joined the terrorist group that she was interviewing or the leader of. She helped break him out of jail. Andre Spotter. So to me, I'm fascinated by this question, what are the conditions in somebody? Why do they break rad what makes them.
Yeah breaking? One of the things that I occurred to me was listening Greta Thunberg came to mind, and this lethal comment nation of celebrity and youth and if whatever you get your endorphins from, if you get your endorphins from being famous for being a political actor, because for a variety of reasons, it can happen when you're young, you might be trapped. It might be worse than being a child actor. In many ways. It's like being a child actor, eli, isn't it. Yeah. I think it's a
great analogy. Yeah.
If you think about people who become incredibly famous as children, like Michael Jackson, they usually have very unhappy adulthoods. And the reason for that is that they experience a kind of the rush of fame at such an early age. How do you just sit with yourself, read a book, you know, go to a cafe.
It's very hard.
And I do have some sympathy and something like that did happen with Kala Walsh, which is that you know, she was being featured in the New York Times as this wonderkind activist when she, you know, as a fifteen year old, gets involved in Ed Markey's race for the Senate and I think, you know, through a series of decisions that she makes, she kind of gets more and more radical.
Some of that.
As Jay I think really ablely reported that she was also spotted at first by Cuban intelligence and then later by the Iranians, and they be chilling them.
It's so chilling. And my message to parents and teachers out there. Let them be speech tam nerds. There is a vent for them to let them do mock trial. Let them get involved, but don't get on TV. And the TV producers think it's cool to cover the kids who are going on strike, it's not. You're distorting their reality. Let them be anonymous and as absolutely useless to the modern world as they are until they can vote and actually participate. I don't care what they know. They're not
old enough to know anything, are they. I mean, even if you're a great violinist, you just can't contribute anything to us. Well.
Yes, and I also thought about it. I'm a fairly new father. I have a four and a half year old daughter. I can't imagine the anguish of the father and what he must be going through because you're always going to love your child. But what happens when your child decides to basically align themselves and join the cause of terrorists who want to destroy your country. That is a hard, hard fate and I would not wish to anyone.
Yeah. Now, let me turn to Iran because we had a lot to cover. Yeah. First, the end of the fourth week of the war is today. I think we are living in a moment of history as significant as the fall of the Berlin Wall. It's a pivot point where the possibility of changing the trajectory of the world is in front of us, and we're watching it unfold. And I don't see it being covered that way. First of my being melodramatic, and two do you see this weirdness in the coverage that I do?
Well, Listen, I respect somebody who would say, I'm not sure how this is going to end. There's a lot we can't know, and we don't know, but I'm not optimistic for these reasons. Okay, fine, because history tells us there's never been successful regime change from the air or
something like that. What I have a problem with is the tenor of the coverage, which is assuming or asserting or smuggling in the conclusion that the war is already a failure and how why Because the price of gasoline has gone up because we have yet to resolve the Strait of Hormuz. And when I see analysts, and I'll name some like Valey Nasser, who you know is the former president of SYS. I think he's still at SEYS.
Johns Hopkins, serious guy, very respected, kind of getting out there and telling me that you know, now you've just made the Iranian regime more hardline and more determined to get nuclear weapons.
I want to bang my head against the wall. You have no.
Idea how much these pressures from the financial I mean, are they going to pay the salaries of the besieg and the IRGC officers, to the decapitation strikes, to the fact that I don't know about the command and control obviously there is some And then I think in some ways I was talking to you know, Dwayne, you know before we got on, and he had a great point. I want to credit him with this by extending these negotiations. What a mind game Trump is playing on the regime.
Now you've got all the long knives out looking at it. Who's the collaborator, who's selling us out? Because I think there is a lot of confusion. So I just think all of these assumptions that it was a blunder, that we're going to be stuck with an even more radical regime, there's no reason to think that at this point, I personally.
Am make a diversion. But last week and this week Sunday and Monday, I listened to Vali Nasser's Iran Grand strategy of political history, and I recommended it to people because while I did detect a certain softness towards part of the terrible atrocities Iran committed, especially in the eighty to eighty eight war, that it was objected. I thought it was objected about the history. So he's gone off the deep end because I want to withdraw my recommendation of Iran is very good. I want to say.
The reason I bring him up because he has done important scholarship. His response now as a commentator on the war, what I think he makes this error, which is that he is assuming everything he knows about the nature of Iran's regime would apply without factoring in unprecedented levels, as I said, the decapitation and everything else. My problem is that his analysis is if they would behave the same way they always have, even though they've never faced a
challenge like this before. And my challenge to it is, how are you going to I mean, I'm sure I agree that I understand the nature of what Haviv Redik Gore talks about the muk Ohama ideology, that you know, it's important that we will face death willingly and all of this. That's true for some but most times in history. As you know, most people are not martyrs. They don't
seek martyrdom. The reason they don't seek martyrdom is because most human beings want to live and spend time with their families.
So at a.
Certain point, I'm just saying I would like to know how the regime is. I'm sure there is fracturing, and I'm sure that we can't really see it because that's happening, you know, around the dinner table in private homes at this point. But it's got to be intense, That's what I'm saying.
I'm a civilian, civilian that I do also know the military rule that when thirty percent of any particular military organization has been rendered inoperable either killed or wounded, that that formation loses its effectiveness thirty percent. Can't you cannot lose thirty I think they've lost more than thirty percent of the IRGC. We'll come back and talk about that during the break and after the break with Eli Lake. Follow him at the Free Press, follow Breaking History, and
follow him on Exit. Eli Lake. Stay tuned. I'm back with Eli Lake. Eli. When we come back from break on the network, I'm going to ask you where do you get your information from because too many people are getting lowsy information from too many sources. But if I have a chance on Special Report tonight, I'm going to quote Churchill ironically in Tehran in nineteen forty three talking on his birthday to Joseph Stalin, when he said, very famously, in war, truth is so important, so precious, that it
must be protected by a bodyguard of lies. S So I assume everybody's lying when they talk about the war, unless it's sentcomm telling us something we've blown up. Do you bring the same filter to everything you hear? Yeah? I love the bodyguard lies.
I also like the fog of war is an important because sometimes you think you know something you don't.
It's a great it's a great point.
Again, there's so much that we can't know about the internal dynamics of like the kind of unit cohesion or battalion cohesion. Uh in the repressive instruments of the state, the institutions like the IRGC, like the BESIEG, like the MOIS, their intelligence service. And then what we do get is we get this leader has been knocked out. You know, the Israelis are pretty good. It's when they confirm the kill.
So I mean again, you know, sometimes Trump, who you know, it can sometimes, I think his critics say, always all over the place, but he can blurt out truths, you know, in his in his you know, unique kind of style where he at one point, I think he said it on Fox and Friends last night. What did he say or not Fox and Friends? It was the five where he said, not a lot of people want to be the next leader.
So that tells me two things. One is maybe.
Most of a most of a common ae is dead or is just he also said he was gay and a como or inpacitated. We haven't seen him right, he was saying he was gay, right, Okay, that you know, okay, But my point is is that well is he is he telling us something there that there is a leadership vacuum and nobody wants the job. That's pretty important information, right. I mean, now, I'm not saying that Trump is the most reliable narrator and everything, as I think you're right
about the bodyguard of lies. But I also think that he has a propensity because he is unfiltered so much of the time, to blurt out truths that other people won't say. In fact, I think it's a key part of his appeal. That's not my of course, only sources of information, but I'm just saying that that's an important factor, you know. But when you ask me the question again, I have other other sources that I think are or.
Bring it back after visuals. But he My favorite President Trump's story is when he talks about the discombobulator. He so badly wants to tell us what it is, but he knows they they got to.
He comes right up to the edge again and again to tell us what the disc combined.
He named it, by the way, he did.
You see in the cabinet meeting yesterday they said they're going to put his statue up to him in Venezuela, And with perfect timing, he said, I care more about the statue. And you know, it was self effacing, but it was funny.
It was genuinely fun Yes, yes, I think it is generally funny.
I mean on Venezuela. The one thing I'll say, oh go ahead, we got a minute.
It was.
What I'm gonna say is that I really hope that there is some planning now that we've got some distance to finally get to what a transition and an election.
I under stand the logic.
I understand the strategy of not wanting to go straight to a Maria Machado or something like that. But at a certain point there has to be an election so we can have a legitimate government.
All right, pause, right there. I think you're right. I think Rubio's got that under control. We'll be right back with Eli Lake. Teach get you. Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. I'm playing radical music from the seventies because of the latest Breaking History edition by Eli Lake, which is about when kids go breaking rad is what it's called, and I would recommend you listen to Breaking History.
But I wanted to talk with Eli about Iran, primarily in the fog of war when truth must be protected by a bodyguard or lies. You are a national security reporter for as long as I've known you. He would you tell people how long you've been doing it? And then b how are you reporting this war? What do you rely on? Okay?
So I have been writing about national security since two thousand and one, when I was hired as a young man for by the old old Wire Service called UPI to cover the State Department, and that was a wonderful education, you know, beginning and then and then you know it's I sort of from there. I covered the two thousand and three Iraq War. I went to a rock several times, covered Afghanistan war.
So I've been doing it two thousand and one. That would be.
Let me that, okay, So two thousand and one, two thousand and twenty five year, Yah, it's a long time.
Yeah. So you when you made that choice, how would you prepared to do that? Where did you go to school and what did you study? Oh?
Thank you for I went to I went to a Hebrew day school called a Kiba Hebrew Academy in Philadelphia, where I grew up. And then I went to a liberal arts college called Trinity College, which an excellent school. Recommend it, and I knew that I wanted to write. I wrote a lot in college, you know, for our college newspaper, and I got a job after doing some
political work. Back then, I was far more left. I worked with the Democratic Party briefly in the cycle of nineteen ninety four when I graduated, doing opposition research and other things. And then, as you remember, they lost very badly that year, and I didn't have any killary Care, Hillary Care.
Yes, all of that.
And I then got hired with a newsletter company called Inside Washington Publishers, which has launched a number of careers in among Washington journalists. Jim vanda High worked there, John Bresnahan worked there.
I can name more.
It was a wonderful experience, and that was a job where they took you with no journalism experience. If you knew how to write and you were ambitious, they gave you a very low salary, but they also gave you an expense account. And my job was to cover the Office of Water at the EPA. So you can imagine the jokes right themselves, Eli Lako were covering the Office
of Water. But it was a great experience because, as you know, and I would I recommend it, it's a great experience in Washington journalist because I had to actually cover the EPA the rulemaking process, but also Congress. I had to get to know lobbyists and really learn how policy was made. And it was it's hard work, but you know you.
For thirty plus years I was a land use lawyer while also being a broadcast journalist. And what I did in land use lawyer was dealing with the Army Corps of Engineers, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and the EPA whenever they would want to elevate a four or four permit, and that meant the division of water. And so you were cast into regulatory hell. But you'll learn it. You'll learn it well.
And I'll say, I think my experience there were two things that kind of made me kind of intellectually go towards the right. It was reading a book called Free to Choose by Milton Friedman and Rose Roodman, which was really influential for me, I have to say. And the second thing was covering the EPA, because what ended up happening was I went into it having been a left wing college student thinking that the bad guys were the industry.
And what I found out was that one a lot of times there would be mandated technologies that didn't work, and it was the industry people who had to just pay for it even though it didn't work, and then they would know that there would be another one. I thought that was kind of deeply unjust. But the other thing was is that you realize that it's not this clear division, Hugh as I'm sure you know that, oh, industry is always the bad guys, and they don't like
environmental protections. A lot of them love the regulations because it keeps their competitors out of it. And so once you sort of once I was you know, once you have some Milton Friedman and the sort of first hand experience of dealing with the inefficiencyeds of the regulatory state.
I think it is a road to making you a conservative. The regulatory community wants clarity and decisions. They don't want ambiguity and delay. It is that simple. I don't know if you've had a chance to read the new book yet, Mobile Eye ELI by Sean Shankar, who's the chief technology officer at Palent. It's on the future of warfare and how we prepare for it. I talked to him today for thirty minutes, and I'll tell you regulators will kill us. I mean, they'll get us killed in the next war
if we don't get them out of the way. Because we got to develop a lot of new stuff in a hurry, and we can, but we need the regulators to get out of the way on land use and stuff like that. Back to it, if he get into the supply chain is absolutely one of the takeaways is the stockpile is not the problem. The production line is the problem. So you can have no stockpile if you've
got a production line. And I gave my hypothetical, if we need a long range drone that can be fired from anywhere in the United States, from Alaska to Texas to Florida to Maine, carrying a decent heavy payload that can go around the world, how long will it take us to make that and where can we make it? He said, I don't know the answer, but it's very doable. So that's what we need. And I also found from him Ukraine is now producing. Are you sitting down a
million drones a month? A million drones a month? Wow? Wow? Yeah? And their main ally they're helping us. Only the UAE and Ukraine have actually raised their hands and say we're in this fight. I hear Saudi Arabia is back. There anyone else actually in the fight besides his real New York obviously. Yeah.
I mean, the the Israel part of this is just amazing. We've discussed it a few times on the show. I just have to say, I mean, I think they emerge if the war goes as we think it will, I think Israel emerges as a kind of regional hedgemon at that point.
Enough of edgemon that Turkey is afraid of them.
I think Turkey is already I mean, has to respect them. But I think when i'm when I'm when I what I mean, what I mean by regional hegemon is that Israel will be capable of performing a lot of the role that America does now in the region, which is to sort of be the guaranteur of the stability and
this freedom of navigation. I think Israel has demonstrated that capability, not immediately, but if you talk about this idea that's been in our conversation now for a quarter century, America has to pivot to Asia to kind of meet the moment against the Chinese communists.
This might be our ticket to doing that. Now. Do you think you're getting rid of that issue? Is only ten million people? I think sometimes nine million work for the masade, but it's not the case. Do you think they have Turkey as penetrated as they do Ron.
That's a great question, and I don't want to answer it just yet, but I would say this, if it's not the case now, it will be the case within a few years.
All right, I'm coming back with Eli Lake for one more segment after the break. I'll talk to him during the break as well. Don't forget Breaking History has been his brand new episode. His dropped on breaking rad when kids become political radicals, and boy, there's a bad case right now. Do not miss it. It's over at the Free Press website. You can also get wherever podcasts are available. Eli's coming right back one more segment on the air, and I'll talk to him during the break as well.
Stay tuned when I come back, Eli Lake, I am going to ask you on the network where you get your information from that you rely on. Okay, But now I want to get your prediction. Guy Benson and I were talking about when the war will wrap up, and he was a little bit stunned when I said, by June, I put no stock in estimates from anyone, even Trump, because nobody knows because the enemy gets are saying this too.
But by June, the massive firepower that has been accumulated by then will have crushed everything there is to crush, and the straits will be open. What is your prediction, Well, I would look at it like this.
I think that there will be a phase of combat operations that will come to a close, and it may be as long as June, it may be sooner, maybe a little later, and I don't necessarily know, but that's one way let's look at that. That's the big American join Israeli flying sorties all that. Then there's another phase which I think we have to keep in mind. Israel has Iran wired that Mosad appear to be everywhere.
There are a number of relationships that Israel.
Has made over the years with various ethnic factions within Iran and other opposition groups.
I think, and I think that then there will be a real.
Push once the bombs stopped dropping, which is what Trump and Nana who have said all along, to then foment or rekindle the energy that we saw at the.
Beginning of the year.
And that I think is really interesting because Israel's demonstrated that they already control drones that are armed that can take out besides a tech checkpoints in Tehran. They've shown that they've shown that capability.
So then you have.
This prospect that I think we talked about before of a velvet revolution of sorts in Iran, but with close air support from Israel, and I would love to see it, and I think that that image will be the real end of the war. That might not be for six months, it might not be for a year. I think that's a little long, but that's how I look at it. The real end of the war is when the Iranian people finally take their country back, and of course the Islamic Revolution of seventy nine.
I'm talking about kinetic action major. I don't think Trump will leave anything left that can be bombed or shun coom. We'll say to him, finally, sure, we're bouncing rubble now and we can't waste the munitions we need him in the Pacific. When do you think that point comes?
It's hard to say, because I think you have to look at two things. One is the straight up permus that's got to be You got to have a situation where the Iranians can no longer threaten to close it or threaten the vessels that go through. So he's got to solve that problem before he can end the war. And the second thing is is the you know the four or five hundred I forget the exact number kilograms of enriched uranium that are at the bottom of these,
you know, underground facilities and Naton's Fourdeaux and Isfahan. He's got to make sure he we got to get that. I think he wants that. I think that's that. Those are the two things I wanted I would see to look as at the end of the kinetic operations.
All right, I'll be right back with Eli. Like Shay tuned. In America, I'm Hugh Hewett. Clean water is not complicated, but it is essential. It public health suffer, education declines, economic stability well, it weakens if it doesn't collapse. Across Latin America and the Caribbean, families are facing that reality of unclean water. Every day. Mothers walk miles for clean water. Children are exposed to preventable diseases because they haven't got it.
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Kid.
Don't matter what you did off, don't tiptoes, don't time, no both then stay within the.
Tear around about Pepa queen news. Bought of clean clothes you don't need to wear. A man of Welcome Back America subtraining Homesick Blues by Bob Dylan. Noticed the weathermen in that that's the originals. Yeah, I had a letter. I have a letter from Tom Ayden that ends with don't you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows? Tom? Because he was mayor. He ran from mayor in LA. When I was doing the nightly
news there Eli, we got five minutes. I listened to Aaron McClain yesterday with a couple of great guests, you know, Richard Goldberg and another great guy and informed speculation is smart. So I like listening to school war. Who do you listen to? What do you read to get information on the Iran war?
I was, I got a I got a list. The first of all Iran International. Iran International has I think real coverage, not just of Iran's internal opposition, but they do have a way of getting the information out of the country, even when there's an Internet blackout. It's always worth reading them, and so that's at the top of my list. Iran International Commander. They had a great interview, terrific. Yeah, yeah, absolutely,
I love that. And A Meet Sagal Nadava Yel you know them, probably from Dan Senor's great Call Me Back. We are now publishing at the Free Press. A Meet Sagal's daily newsletter. I highly recommend it. He gets very good stuff. He's very reliable, and so I like a Meet Sagala. I like anything in David A y'all does now. I still think you have to read the Journal, the Times, You have to read the big American newspapers even if you even though I think they have done you know,
they've put a bit of spin on the ball. At the same time, I think that they have the ability and they have the resources to get to kind of pull out important scoops.
It's important to know that. And then you know, I got to say I have started to really monitor. I have a list. I'm not going to give you the names right now.
I can maybe private vite lator, but there's a lot you can get on x from Iranians who are not in Iran but are in constant contact. That's not necessarily for like news, it's social media, but it can give you a sense of kind of where the mood is and where people are. And this is very important because you know, you'll there are stories that suggest that I think Iranians are very fearful, but if that's all you get that, if they're very fearful at this point, you're
not getting the whole story. What they're afraid of is that the war ends and then the whatever's left of the regime takes it out on the Iranian people. So that to me is a message to keep going and make sure that we understand that the war isn't done until we have a new regime.
Now.
In the day of the war began, the free press recognized the demand signal, the bat signal, and they got Neil fergus They got you, Ferguson, they got you, They got everybody Aviv was on. Did they realize the demand signal is still up? I think if you ran that weekend gathering every weekend, you would own the interwebs. Uh, the demand signal for serious informed speculation. Informed speculation is what I'm talking about. If Aaron McClain was on CBS
for an hour, I'd watch it. Do the news media understand that serious people really want to know what's going on? We understand this moment in history.
We definitely do with the free press. Just to give the Hugh Hewett audience a sense. I was supposed to in the month of March be off of print and just focused on the next full season of Breaking History.
And as soon as the war started, literally.
On the twenty eighth of February, I had a phone call with Oliver Weisman, my editor, and he said, Allie said, you know, you can't.
We need you for the war.
And I'm like, I know, and I'm by the way, a happy warrior in that regard, because I think it's such an important, you know, hinge of history story. So to me, you know, we'll get back to the breaking history thing. But yeah, no, I think we definitely understand it, and we've had some great stuff. We had Yoev Gallant was really good this week. You should read that on the importance of taking carg Island.
I believe that the Free press has set the standard for good coverage. But what I really want is more podcasting from you, from Aaron McLain, from a commentary. I hate it. In fact, my reflex is when the commentary podcast talks about anything other than the war, I get mad at it because you know, I'm normally interested in everything, but all I wanted to do is talk about the war, because this is it's like the Berlin Wall falling and
they're covering, you know how the magazine subscription is doing. No, No, well, can I come about I give.
A little preview? Yeah, because I've gotten the message. Next week, early in the week we just recorded it. There is a long form conversation with me and Aviv on his really deep thinking on the theory of muk Ohama or kind of permanent revolution, and I think it'll it's all about the war, It's all about the implications. So I'm really excited about It's a good conversation.
I cannot wait to hear the episode ninety three and ninety nine of Asked Aviv Anything are the introduction to what will be the seminar that Eli will conduct with the Vive Ready Gore next week. You should subscribe to the Free Press because it really does take the Shariot stuff seriously. Eli, thank you for your extra time today. Shabbat Shalom and follow him at Eli Lake and I'll be back right after this. America Staytion