Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, all Things hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there, and of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Morning, Laura and even Grays And welcome to the Big Weekend Pod America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Thank
you for listening today. Our regular weekend and review program is just jampacked with one subject, really all about Iran, all about what's going down in Islamabad. This weekend, I'll talk with John Ellis, the founder of news Items, what you ought to be getting every morning in your mailbox and you just don't need other newspapers if you get
news Items. Eli Lake from Breaking History in the Free Press, Charles C. W. Cook, National Review Senior writer, and of course Ben Dominich will be along today as we focus on exactly what is it that Iran is lying about. I mean, they're just lying left and right on the web about preconditions. Could be a very short Rekovic like meeting. Remember there are three categories. You do a Munich fold like Neville Chamberlain did with Hitler in nineteen thirty eight.
You fold in the effort of trying to get out, and that's a disaster. Or you can get a surrender appomatic style like Grant got from Lee in eighteen sixty five. Highly unlikely. I don't expect that. All I really want is for the range to say, stop killing our soldiers, stop blowing up our weapons production facilities. No moss, no moss. The strait is open. But if the trait is not open, I think it's just a Reagan walkout, as in Rekovic
in nineteen eighty six. I'll ask everyone what they think is going to happen based on what we've seen happen already. So sit back and enjoy the big weekend pod. Good morning, Glory and he being great. A good weekend do all you folks out there. I hope you've got you a master's dealing planned. But let's start with as we do most fridays. John ellis editor in chief and undred of news items, and the first item on our list. I'm
glad you put it there, John. I've tried to follow the anthropic story, the collision with Pete hagset the concerns about Claude. I don't understand it. Tell me about it.
Well.
Nthropic announced this week that its most recent version of its AI capability was quote a step change above what they had previously accomplished, and it was such that they did not release it publicly because they feared that if they did, bad actors could get their hands on it and crack into any software system, business, government, academic.
They could.
Bad actors could get inside of any software program, inside of anything, and create havoc.
So they did not release the.
New software package or the new AI package, but it set off alarm bills everywhere, and it's part of this race to be the ones that arrive at super intelligence first. And you know, the decision by the company not to release it public it gives you some idea of how concerned they were that it would end up in the hands of bad actors.
John, I'm interested. Why would they announce that our product is too dangerous to release? Well, I would just not release it.
Well they they everybody's been talking about the release of it, and you know there there have been leaks from Entropic that that's gotten some of the code out there, so I think they felt that they had to act proactively and inform the government and inform you know, their major corporate.
Clients and so on and so forth.
And of course if they did that then it would leak out anyway. So best to just get out in front of it and say, we have this new capability. It is potentially very dangerous. We're working with all of the major technology companies to figure out how to limit or you know, forestall any damage. And were responsible corporate actors. I think that was the motivation. There's some who think
that it was marketing that they were. They were touting their their dangerous new model as a way of you know, gaining customer share.
But I don't think they're.
That That's an old Hollywood trick. I got lots of friends in the business out there and now create controversy about a movie just in order to create controversy to get more people to see Maybe maybe not. Let's move this story too, because actually Scott Besseant, Secretarated Treasury and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Pout we're both talking about AI today.
What were they saying, Well, they're concerned that the capabilities of this new entropic package if you well, uh, enable somebody to get inside of the financial system.
Uh and reek havoc.
So Powell and Bassent uh you know, gathered the major banks and the major financial institutions to talk about is this possible, what are your defenses?
So on and so forth. It gives you some idea of how.
Concerned people are about the capabilities of not just Anthropics AI, but but other major companies as well. You know, the Federal Reserve Chairman and the Secretary of Treasury don't call in top bankers in top financial institutions because you know, they want to have lunch. They call them in when there's something close to a crisis. And the announcement of that Anthropic made this week is in fact a crisis.
It's not.
I don't believe for a second it's marketing. I think that they you know, they have been working on this. They have improved a dramatic and they got to the end of it and they thought, oh my god, this is this is way more powerful than we ever imagined, and we've got to figure out how to put a fence around it.
Well, it's a validator when the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve both agree danger Will Robinson danger. Well, let's go to number two. Nick ebers Dad has been mister population forever. He's trustworthy, he's believable, and he's worried about the American population. I suppose the graying of it, the failure to replace the old with the young.
Is that what's going to replace the world. Yeah, it's replacement. And the speed with which it's happening we have obviously with the baby boomers, we have an aging population. We all live longer. We therefore take more so security, more medicare. We already have a very high national debt, we have very you know, real needs for defense spending. And if we don't have younger people coming up to be productive
and pay taxes, then the system is under threat. And that Nick was again raising the alarm that depopulation in the US is coming much faster than people think and policymakers need to address it.
It's a very good piece. It's at Aei dot.
Org Ai and that means the childcare tax credit's got to go up. That's a real world way to encourage people to have more children. Number three, This is very concerning it comes from Pew. Anti Israel ANTIBB sentiment is rising, and it's especially rising among younger demos. And I think that's because of TikTok, But what do you think it's because of it?
I think that there's a sense that we have backed Israel, you know, with at every turn, and that with President Trump, who has been his real strongest supporter, BB still gets out and sort of does what he wants to do and not what President Trump would prefer him to do under certain circumstances. And I think that's sort of the leading edge of a general feeling that we're getting all. We've supported Israel as no one else has, and they keep doing things that we would prefer they not do.
If you add that to the media coverage which shows, you know, carnage in Gaza, carnage in Lebanon, it's like, why are we sending them all these weapons?
Why are we giving them all this money?
It's not you know, it's not whether you agree or disagree with that, it's that the it's that public opinion for the first time has moved, I mean traumatically to an anti Israel position, which is which means you know, I mean politicians will follow the polls, and so this has to be of an enormous concern to the Israeli government and the Israeli people. If you lose the support of America, Israel's position is exponentially more dire.
I agree. Now I want to ask you about the Iran negotiations in Islama Bai John, you don't remember Munich nineteen thirty eight. That's the worst case. You probably do remember Rekovic in nineteen eighty six when Reagan storms out. I think that's the likeliest case. And I don't anticipate in Appomattox, where Iron just throws in the towel. What do you think we're going to have a Munich, a Rekovic or an Apomatox.
I think it'll be a Rekovic. I think that there right now there are doubts in the White House about whether Advance should have gone at all. Vice President of Advance should have gone at all?
I think it.
I think the second guessing has to do with, you know, we put too much US prestige.
There that it would have been better done by.
Secretary of Rubio or Witgoff and Kushner. But the Iranians think they're winning so they're not they're not likely to make the concessions that the US is looking for. And I suspect that once that's clear, which I think it'll be immediately clear, uh, then the US will walk out. And then President Trump has to decide whether to quote restart, end quote the war the you know, that's that's an enormously difficult decision for him to make.
But I think one thing that that is not is not paid or not.
You know, people don't really understand or are not hearing this as much as they might. Uh Iran has been decimated by these the combined forces attacks. And if the war were to start to stop tomorrow, uh, and they didn't have access to the straight, and even if they did, you know, a kind of easy path on the straight, generating millions of dollars a day. The country is in such disrepair that I'm not sure. I'm not sure that
the government that currently exists can survive. Not. I mean, we know they're ruthless, we know, you know, we know all that stuff, But so was the KGB in nineteen ninety one, and the whole thing came crashing down because the system didn't deliver it. Maybe, you know, we may end up If Iran has won the battle, we may end up winning the war.
And that's how I look at it. I think Reagan walked out of Recovic and three years later that Berlynn Wall fell, and five years later George H. W. Bush presided over the dissolution of the Soviet Union peacefully. That's my time frame, real quick, John, I'm pulling for ry McElroy simply because he's a child of County Down I'm a great grandson of County Down St Field and County Down. Who you think is going to win this thing?
Rory looks like he's running away with it, but we'll say it's awfully difficult to know. Saturday they call moving Day, and after Saturday we should have a pretty good idea.
We'll talk about it next week. John Ellis go to news dash Items dot Com, become a subscriber and gets smart news dashed items dot Com from John Ellison his wonderful team at News Items. Stay tuned. Eli Lake is next Walking back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett, joined by Eli Lake of the Free Press. He's the host of Breaking History. There's a fabulous new Breaking History this week that traces the many ups and downs, mostly downs of the Iranian people's attempts to shrug off the fanatical regime
that it's sat at top. It's in nineteen seventy nine, Eli, welcome back. I want to begin by asking, I'm you're me. That's always good to talk to you, and I listened to you talk to I'm boundless this morning, Aviva. And you know, she read the first line of the president's post and it gets me mad because you cannot read the post about the end of civilization without reading it to the end and realize he's talking about the regime. It's a one word change and it's fine. And so
I thought she was a little hand ringing there. But let me tell you, let me what do you think is going to happen? And they're going to be Munich nineteen thirty eight, Recomic nineteen eighty six, or appamatics on our side.
Well, I don't even know if there's going to be a meeting at this point. Based on the latest rumblings of the parliament speaker, the Madula speaker Golloboff, he seems to be I mean, the Iranians are doing what they always do. They's claiming they got more than they really
did as a precondition for the meeting. I still say that if they if the straits are open for two weeks and that becomes a kind of new status quo, then given the damage that's been done to Iran's infrastructure of their death machine, then that's good because that's the last hard power threat and really the only hard power threat that the Iranians have, which is the Strait of Hormuz.
My suspicion is that the.
Chinese were the ones that forced them to initially accept the deal, and we'll see kind of whether the Chinese are still going to pressure because it's not good for them to have the straight up Hoore moves in this sort of situation, even though their vessels are going through. But on the other hand, yeah, sorry, go ahead.
Well I was gonna tell you, lie, I expect jd Vance to go full Michael Corleoni, godfather to this is my offer nothing. In other words, you were supposed to open the straits, and they didn't open the strait, and therefore we got nothing to talk about. And then say we're leaving, we'll be over in the hotel. When the ships start moving, we'll come back over and we'll give you twenty four hours.
That's I really do, mister Rochie, and we'd appreciate if you would handle the gaming fees personally.
Right, Yeah, very good?
Yeah, yeah, no, I agree with you. That should be his response. And I also think that JD. Vans understand. He's a smart man, he's a shrewd politician, and I think he gets the fact. He gets that he cannot be humiliated in Islamabad. So that I think is going to be a top of his mind, and that's good for America, it's good for him personally. But that said, I do think that they the I think the Iranians still kind of think they won. Maybe they don't know
the full extent of the damage that's been done. We saw that really important briefing I think yesterday from General Kin and Brad and Admiral Cooper that went through all the percentages of like what's been taken away. That doesn't mean, by the way, that they don't have some capacity to still threaten, but it's far diminished, and without their own defense industry, they can't replenish the stocks. So they really
got to be careful. And so there's still many targets to hit inside of Iran, and if that's what they want to go back to, they can. I think the fact that Trump was willing to have a two week you know, negotiation to kind of pause a ceasfire was good for markets, and I think that that's been the real timer the war in a lot of ways that if things got really bad, I think then that would you know, force a retreat in some ways, which I hope doesn't happen.
And then keep in mind we haven't.
Tried military force to open the straight upfore moves that doesn't even have to necessary really be American marines or special operators that could be mercenaries that are hired by the Gulf States that have just as much to lose here as well.
So on the program afterday, you know, retired Admiral, we've done this before, we know how to do it. We can do it. It's a question of will we did in nineteen eighty eight. It's expensive, it takes eight airplanes in the air the entire time, it takes destroyers coming up. He thinks for surgery destroyers there. I actually think this is going to end badly for the Iranians because they
don't know how badly they've been hurt. So I want to talk to you about the one thing I heard you talking about with Dwain when you were setting up is U power plants and bridges. Here's shu Hewett's view. If you can take out all the bridges leading to the missile cities around them and they all it's just a map and we know where the missile cities are, those are legit targets. And if you can take our
IRGC power greed generators, those are legitimate targets. We don't want to make the people of IRRIG suffer, we do want to make it difficult for them remove their missiles. Is that a common ground?
We have common ground one hundred percent there, Which is why I don't like the term civilian infrastructure because it allides the difference that you just put out there. There's a difference between a million bridges I think are different than power plants, because if you took out the power plant that was generating electricity for a city like Tehran, you know you're you're you're going to be responsible for lots and lots of civilian deaths, people who are the victims of the regime.
Babies an incubator. If you take a baby's an incubator.
If you choose right, If you take it, you take out a power plant that's you know, powering an IRGC base and you know an attendant like you know, nuclear facility, then you're mainly just hurting the regime. So there has to be some sort of distinction. I think we got in a little bit of problems. Even though I hear your point about the tweet and ending civilization and all that, the president has been somewhat careless with.
How he has described this.
He needed to, I think, maybe make it clear that he wasn't targeting the civilians. And that's what that for me, is the most important distinction, because that should be the because I mean, listen, I still think this.
War the biggest strategic game.
There's no guarantee is that sometime I would say, within six months to a year after combat operations, you're giving the Iranian people a chance with support from the Mozat and maybe the CIA or something like that on a clandesan level. That's the real way to finish the job for good.
All right now, Eli, I want to go back to Cold War days. Yeah, the correlation of forces with Soviet doctrine. They want to know that the Soviets have the correlation of forces going in their favor, and they did in the late seventies when the Cubans were all over Africa and they were in Afghanistan, and then by eighty nine the wallfalls and by ninety one the Soviet Union is gone.
As the correlation of forces between the United States and it's peer China shifted towards the United States in the last fifteen months.
Well in one sense, in terms of I will have to measure it, and we don't know exactly what the Chinese have. We've demonstrated military capabilities that are I think a generation ahead, so in that respect, the numbers are not really as relevant as the ability plus technology, and the Israelis are a huge part of that.
So absolutely the israel my number one ally, that's by far. Now.
We've now demonstrated a few times that we can either capture or kill your leader and leadership without a ground invasion force. That's never happened in history. That's extraordinary. And the Israelies have demonstrated it more than if I mean, they did it with Hesbeala, they did it at one point with the Yemeny Huthi's and they've done it now twice in Iran, once with the only military leadership Cadres, and then this time with the political and military leadership.
That ability is something that the United States has, it's something that Israelis have. I don't know that the Chinese can do that, and I know that at least when Plutin started the Ukraine War, he couldn't do that because he tried to capture Zelensky in the beginning of the war and he failed.
I'm hoping you can stay with me during the break so I can put it on the Big Weekend Pod, Eli, because I got there's a big question to ask you just don't go anywhere America. You're watching the Salem News Channel, stay tuned to it coming up later after me tonight we'll have Larry Elder will be coming along and this will be part of the Big Weekend Pod, which is available over it highly concentrated you My podcast every weekend,
Eli Lakes Breaking History is a must listen to. It's a history of the four critical times the Iranian people have tried to throw up the regime of Mostation. I mean, it's pending in the water of thirty five thousand people I'll be right back with Eli. Stay tuned. You know, I want to ask you if you share my perception about one thing. If we leave Iran in control, real or imagined, the straight of Horror Moves, imagine meing people won't go through it because they're afraid. That's a huge
loss for Donald Trump. Cannot be interpreted as other than a huge loss. Now. I think they blinked when they agreed to a two week seach fire and of the talks. But now they want Donald Trump to blink, and I think it would be a huge loss, and he would understand it. His ego would understand it as a loss. That's why I don't think it's going to happen. But do you agree with my assessment?
With one caveat, I think it's a big loss, but it's also there we have to understand it's surmountable. What I mean by that is that if it becomes you know, the new reality for the next you know, months or years, that the Iranians controlled the straight up Horror Moves and the straight up her Moves becomes no longer an important friendshipment point because the Saudis are already expanding the capacity of their pipelines, and there are other routes.
That we can take.
The Israelis now have an agreement with Somali Land which gives them some visibility and ability to project power in the Red Sea. So there's a lot of things that can be done to mitigate it. It's the biggest and highest leverage point at this moment because of all the traffic that's effectively kind of backed up. But on the other hand, it's not like it's going to be a winner for Iran, you know, for years to come, or a new status quo, and people don't have any other choice.
But because they have the only place they can go as the straight up four moves, there are alternatives and those alternatives will be will make themselves apparent and almost because the market will demand it.
But at the same time it will be.
A big loss because before the war, the Iranians weren't doing this and now they are, and then they have to understand they pay a price for it.
Yeah, I think it would actually split the Republican Party, not the not the new Neil Ishalla's two percent. But the Reagan Conservatives would say that's a loss and that would be bad for the projects, right Elilake. I was going to talk to you. Follow him on exit Elilake and listen to thank you, my friend. You will welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined by Charles C. W. Cook. He's a senior writer and editor at National Review. You hear him often on the Editors. He has his own podcast,
Charles C. W. Cook Podcast. Charles. First question, because this is about history a lot today. Did you read in history when you were at Oxford or were you in economics or philosophy? What did you read in.
I've read history and politics is the of course.
Okay, very good. Then I'm going to give you eight choices. The Piece of Tislett eighteen oh seven, Congress of Vienna eighteen fourteen, Appomattics eighteen sixty five, Congress of Berlin eighteen seventy eight, Munich, Hitler and Chamberlain nineteen thirty eight, Yalta nineteen forty five, Potsdam nineteen forty five, and Recubec, Reagan and Gorby nineteen eighty six. The meetings in Islamabad this weekend will most resemble which of those?
I have no idea.
I'm not sure it resembles any of those, to be honest with you, I'm not quite sure what's going on. I caught the tail end of your lot section with Eli.
I love Eli.
He's fantastic. I think he's a bit more optimistic than I am. This feels very precarious to me, and in one sense, it feels nothing like any of those eight because I'm not sure it's real here.
I think it feels the most like Rekkubec. Now you're too young, but I was part of the Reagan administration. We got all hepped up. We're watching the TV. Richuald Peerl was in the bathtub. We thought there was going to be an agreement to end all agreements, and we didn't know the whole time. Gorbi wanted SDI and Reagan kept saying no, and so Reagan left Mad, George Shultz left Mad, and Gorby left Mad, and then three years
later the Berlin Walk came down. So I think this is not going to go very long because they're so far apart.
Perhaps what worries me is I'm worried that we're in a precarious position where we have an extraordinary military that can do extraordinary things. Eli is right to point that out, but we have a problem with the straight off hooor moves. That is solvable only with action that the public is skittish about, and that Trump knows the public it's skittish about. And so what we have effectively done here is allowed
the Iranians to know our pressure point. I mean it's not a perfect analogy, of course, but one of the reasons we correctly don't want them to have nuclear weapons is when you get nuclear weapons, as in North Korea, you're able to exert power over the United States. And this is power over the United States. Although I think you're right that this isn't going to hold I don't quite know what worlds it's not going to hold in in a couple of weeks. I assume you are more optimistic on this than i am.
Admiral Montgomery was on yesterday. People can go to my YouTube channel if they'd like to hear what are real. He's a rear admiral, He's run carrier strike groups, and he laid it out pretty matter of fact. You have to have eight airplanes in the air at all times. You have the helos at night, eight tens in the daytime to take out speedboats. You need destroyers cruising with the convoys and you can secure it. We don't need anyone on the land. We did it in nineteen eighty eight.
There is some risk, a little bit much less risk than if they're not convoid. But at the same time, you can make a cost imposition on Iran's infrastructure that serves the IERGC every time they take a shot at one of the tankers. So I read an interesting thing today, Charlie, the United airb Emirates, which next day Israel is our best ally in the region, little Sparta. They will not pay the toll. They are not going to do it period,
not now, not ever, never. So we're going to have a battle of the straight or Iran is going to get a faith saving way to stop being the world's worst regime. And I'm kind of leaning towards that's going to be the result after a period of time.
Certain Yeah, well that's the optimistic view. I absolutely hope you're right.
It's a violation of international law.
It's a corruption of the Anglo American naval supremacy we've enjoyed since eighteen fifteen to have tolls that I understand that he shouldn't always be taken literally.
I didn't like to read that.
President Trump had mused about splitting the tolls.
That was not particularly helpful.
I just worry that unless we have some sort of resolution here, and that would be a resolution a battle of the Strait, that we have handed Iran the knowledge of how to put us on the back foot. And I worry that we don't have enough.
Public support full a battle of the Strait. But I hope I'm wrong.
Well, it would be a repudiation of freedom of navigation, which would have implications for every country in the world, and it would it would empower every petty dictator at every narrow choke point in the world. And I don't think we can allow that. The bridge never did. We can't, right, No.
We absolutely can't allow it. Look, I don't like this phrase.
People say, taco. I think it's childish. I also think it's often really self. It sort of tells on oneself because people use it who want Trump to back down and to criticize him for doing it.
But he is meterial que Oh.
I don't doubt absolutely, but I think it may in fact be part of the strategy. I'm coming back with Charles during the break telling you about the political upside and downside a head for President Trump and JD Vance. Don't go anywhere. It'll be on the big weekend pot and you'll be back after the break. I'm back with Charles C. Charles, I read the Islamabad meeting this way. JD Vance went to bring a Thori taught that's with him. The real negotiators of Wig, Cop and Kushner, and they've
been with these guys in that room before. But the key negotiator is President Trump, and he intuits, after a lifetime of deal making, if he comes back with other than an open straight or a walkout, it's an enormous loss. He had a big win. I thought when Iran blinked and agreed to a two week seach fire. They backtrack immediately, but it was a win for the present. But if they come back and they get any kind of control over the Strait, that's an enormous loss. And I don't
know that he ever recovers from that. So much for the art of the deal.
You agree with that assessment, I absolutely agree with that.
I mean, if you look at it from the perspective of someone who doesn't follow politics, by which I don't mean someone who is stupid or ignorant.
But somebody who just.
Doesn't follow politics closely, they're going to say, well, the status currency was fine. I don't think he was fine, but I think from that perspective they would say, look, we had gas prices at you know, three twenty five, and we weren't at war, and the Strait was open, and now after our action, gas is at four. I know we'll go down probably, but gas is at four dollars plus and we are at war and the strait's close, And I think it's going to be a really hard
sell for that person to say. But look or what Iran has done for forty six years, look at the nature of the regime, look at what they did to their own people, including massacring them recently. I think most people would say, well, yeah, okay, but we went over there and made things worse.
Now.
I'm not making that case myself, but I think Trump has to know, and he does have a.
Pretty good horse sense politically.
I think he has to know that that's how it will be cast, and that that will be a fairly popular view, especially given that there's quite a lot of dissension on the right on this point. Not statistically, your right to describe them as two or three percent. But those people have big megaphones and they are part of the movement. So yeah, I think domestically he cannot leave.
It like this.
Domestically, how about historically, I think it will. It will be the first line in his obituary he lost the.
War with Iron.
Yeah, he came out, he would he would, Yeah.
And that cannot be in Donald Trump's oh bit. I'll be right back with Charles CW. Cook. Don't go anywhere, We'll come back in America. I'm Hugh hewittt back with Charles C. W. Cook. I recommend his podcast to you and the editors on which he appears. Everything he writes over a National View as well, Charles. In Cold War One, there were two ways of examining the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Our way was like
sort of the time magazine. We've got this many missiles, this many warheads, as many soldier sailors, airmen and marines, and there in these places, and there's NATO and over here there the warsaw pack and the Soviets had this. But the Soviets had something called the correlation of forces, which was a little bit more fluid. They'd talk about the Cubans in Africa, they would talk about Castro in our backyard, and they would do a different kind of equation.
Let's use Cold War one logic, correlation of forces. In the fifteen months since Donald Trump has returned to the Oval office, how's the correlation of forces evolved between China and the United States.
I'm actually somewhat bullish on this. I keep being told that the United States has alienated its allies and more to your point, alienated those.
That we need.
There are, of course vassal states of China and nations that are effectively under China's control. But I think that the what's the word.
The break is superfici.
We've seen and talked about on the show before, the Europeans seeming somewhat feckless, declining to join in Britain being unable to marshal and naval force within two weeks. I don't really see the balance of powers having shifted materially. I just think that there's a sort of superficial opposition to Trump, and I would liken it to the way that the world talked about America at the end of
the Bush administration. People forget that now because Bush is the good Republican, right, but he wasn't in two thousand and eight, but it snapped back for reasons that were both good and bad. So I still think we're in a fairly strong position. I also think that we have demonstrated to the world with Venezuela and in Iran, notwithstanding the straight to formers, that we mean business and we are the strong horse and we should be the one
that's backed. This will of course come to a head if there's an invasion of Taiwan, but I think the last two military inter inst have made that slightly less likely.
I agree, And the trajectory of the change from Midnight Hammer on top of that grabbing Maduro, on top of that the devastation re wrecked on the Iranian military seventy five to eighty percent degraded. They're not powerless, but they're down to that. And then the fact that the market is kicking in Saudi Arabia has opened a new pipeline. The market always finds a way to get its products to market, and if the UAE has to build a pipeline to Haifa, they will, And if Cutter has to
do a deal with Israel, they will. Meanwhile, I don't understand. I'm not an economist, but I've listened to John Cochran long enough. The moment oil hits eighty dollars a barrel capped wells, the caps come off. They start adding drilling in the North Sea, they start adding rigs in the Gulf, they start doing fracking all over the world. The answer to high prices high prices, I'm not really that worried about that, are you.
I'm not worried about it in macroeconomic terms. I think politically it is a real problem. It's just a fact in this country that people like low gas prices. I like low gas prices. And the midterms are coming up, so that is a short term view, but it is a real one in our politics, and it will be very different for Donald Trump's second half of his second term if he loses the Senate. I think the House is probably gone already. Macroeconomically, no, I'm not.
So worried about it.
If you look at the oil prices, they're high, but they're not high as they were under Biden, for example. And the stock market is another one people point to. But the stock market is lower than its historical highs. It's down from what was a pretty extraordinary peak. So I don't think that there's going to be some sort of global recession as a result of this, but I do think it's a domestic problem for President Trump in the short term.
So last question, Charles A. Cook. Mollie Hemingway's new book, Alito came in. Can't wait to read it. Maybe the best justice in terms of consistency and predictability and reasoning. He I think he's going to retire. That's just a prediction. I don't know anything, and justices make up their own mind. But would you welcome that? And would you welcome as well, the retirement of Clarence Thomas because you mentioned it, the Senate could flip. I didn't think that was possible six
months ago. I do think it's possible now. If it did, there won't be one judge confirmed, not one at any level, much less of the Supreme Court justice. So would you welcome one or two retirements?
I would?
Unfortunately, I mean they're wonderful. Justice is the quality of the Supreme Court at the moment. In general, it's probably at its highest ever since for one hundred years. They are a big part of that both Alito and Thomas. Yeah, both Alito and Thomas are big.
Parts of that.
But the six' to three cult that we have is, exceptional AND i would like to keep. It it took a long long time to build and to lose, it especially for it to flip to five to four in the other, DIRECTION i think would be a real. Crime so, unfortunately While i'd love them to serve, forever YES i, WOULD i will just give my own. PREDICTION i agree with. YOU i Think alito is going to step. Down i'm not Sure thomas. Is it took him a long time to get. There he had a brutal and disgraceful confirmation.
PROCESS i wouldn't be surprised if he tries to become the longest serving justice In american. History is quite close to, it so he might take a little. Longer BUT i Think alito will step down before the. MIDTERMS i do.
Think That Justice thomas has found that it was rather selfless and a, servant and therefore will assess. THINGS i think he'd like to stay if he could get two more. Years let me ask you about this in terms of The court's birthright. ARGUMENT i think this is an easy cage history and tradition from during The Great. Migration we never.
LOOKED i would argue it for years with the niche people who believe in a birthright citizenship is, abhorrent terrible departure from the clear meaning of the Fourteenth, amendment and they Cite florida. DEBATES i don't care About florida. Debates it's the public meaning of the original. Document what do you, Think? CHARLES i.
AGREE i think that there are some really intelligent people who've done some research and prevent, yeah presented the other. Argument i'm just not on balance persuaded by. It and the other THING i think is, this you, Know i'm not a slave to. Precedent i'm With Clarence thomas on. THIS i think that if The court is obviously, wrong then it should overrule its, precedents because what matters is the true meaning of The, constitution not what The court
has said in the. Past BUT i don't think this is. Clear and BECAUSE i don't think it's, CLEAR i think it would be a real shift to overturn the. Precedent SO i suspect it's going to uphold.
One KIMAK i, agree and, poled, extend, refine and make clear that if you're born here on other than diplomat's, visa you get to stay. Here my tea room for statue is stricting tourism, Visas but we don't. Know CHARLES. C. W, Cook thank you station In. America my, friends you've probably seen the headlines are worse your latest cell, Bill big wirelesses raising rates. Again that means you can be paying more for the same, service or getting pushed into a
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Q welcome into the second hour of The friday program of The Big Weekend. Pod my, guess as he is Most fridays when we are, lucky Is ben dominanch host of The Big Ben. Podcast he is at The Daily wire where he runs the opinion. Pages And, BEN i gotta, say this Week's Big Ben pod shocked me BECAUSE i can't imagine living within three minute walk of the bus stop Where Stephanie minter was. Murdered that's that's.
Chilling, yeah it's. UH i, mean this is the thing THAT i think people don't understand about what is going on in terms of the coverage of what's happened In Northern virginia with these with these deaths that have happened at the hands of the legal immigrants who you, know have in many cases had multiple arrests for past terrible, behavior and yet the local prosecutor soros Back Steve, biscano who has survived an attempt to actually have him. Recalled
he basically gives them slaps on the. Wrist and and the thing that PEOPLE i think don't quite understand is these are not happening in bad. Areas these are happening in well, off you, know suburban areas that are you, know some of the you, know highest rated in terms of per capita, income you, know in the, country you, know not just In, virginia not just in THE dc.
Area and so it's one of these things WHERE i think people don't get, that like this is this is an absolute, menace and it's unfortunate that we, have you, know we had so many people who were willing to kind of pull try to pull the wool over people's eyes About Abigail spanberger and everything that she and some of These Virginia democrats, represent because they are absolutely fine
with this kind of. Thing they, were you, know her response to, this with questions From Nick minok was to go turn things around and basically, say, WELL i should have dealt with, it even though she literally signed something saying, that you, know she does not Want virginia officials to
in any way cooperate WITH. Ice so it's it's absolutely abhorrent And, unfortunately it's one of those situations where you kind of feel like it's going to have to get worse before there's enough of a backlash for and a lot of innocent people are going to get hurt along the way because of The.
Discano and that's The Fairfax County Commonwealth Attorney Steve, Descano West Point, Grad Obama Justice department presents very. Well he has a hard left sorrows guy with seven hundred thousand, Dollars so there's a there's a trajectory for these guys Like Chase boudin And San francisco eventually got his ticket, polled And george whatever his name was In la got gascon got his ticket. Polled Larry krausner will get his ticket polled. EVENTUALLY i Think discano's toast because.
The Thing virginia's aren't going to tolerate. This this is too and this is, embarrassing it's. Awful u the families question are scary willing to speak about it and and are and they're coming forward and it's a terrible. Situation and you, know again you have look In virginia and people you know who are not from the, area just
to you, know. Explain one thing that happens is when you're across the river From, washington D. C even if there's crime problems In, washington D. C which by the, way have improved since the president of, course you, know, uh you know it did his push into the, city cleared out the homeless. Encampments you, know had The National guard come. In remember when you, know The atlantic and folks like that were saying that that was an impeachable.
Offense that's pretty pretty amazing retrospect any. Thing the thing is that like, this people who live In virginia assume that this that the kind of safety that we have enjoyed under The young and THE rs regime over the last four years was kind of the new reality POST. Covid in, fact what we're learning is that that is not the, case and that when you reverse, course things can get really bad really.
Quickly all, Right part two of The Virginia i'm going in reverse order from local to state to national and. International so at the state, level there's an, initiative and it's to Redistrict virginia from the constitutionally mandated bipartisan commission that came up with Six, democrats Five, republicans And spanburger has put forward and signed an initiative in that we'll have a ten to one D. R NOW i am Actually i'm okay with. This i've always Been redistricting is
built in The american. System republicans play, ball you, know you can't sit on the ground and not play. Ball but is it going to, pass ben or are people sufficiently shocked by the fact That spanburger is a?
Liar, well first, OFF i think that the shock has less to do with the fact That spanburger is a liar and more to do with the fact that the districts that were, drawn by the, way not By, spanberger but by the person who actually runs policy In, Richmond Louise, lucas the, occagenarian, uh you, know chief of The Democratic party within the legislature that because Of stanburger's by the, way moderate alternative to the ten one redistricting was a
nine to two redistricting you, know which you, know by the, way this is this is one of the reasons why you shouldn't have The virginia system of not having a governor have to run for. Reelection, ever, yes here's the.
Thing the districts are so. RIDICULOUS i, mean we, my my sister AND i very quickly when they when they released the, map we drew and we drew a circle around The Army navy Country club and basically tried to decide how how many representatives representing two thirds Of virginia could live within quick driving distance of The Army navy Country. Club and the, Answer, Hugh i'm to tell you is.
Five, yeah it's. Amazing it will be well. Represented The Army Davy Gunchet club will be well. Represented, okay let me now move to. National on the political, side if The strait of hor moves in any way remained under the control Of, IRAN i believe it's a massive political defeat For President, trump which will follow him into the history. Books that's WHY i don't think he's going to allow to.
Happen do you agree with my? ASSESSMENT i think he won big when they blinked and, Said, okay we'll sit down with you and we don't have to have all our preconditions for two Weeks eastart now they've been lying and. Backpedaling but If Donald trump allows them to collect tolls in any, way shape or form or, blinks he can't recover from.
That you agree with. Me SO i do agree with, you AND i also think that and this is A i did a list On, MONDAY i believe in reaction to this sort of this deal that was being rolled out at the time that just sort of, said, look you, know one of the things that can't be accepted one
is can't be In. Richmond they've, obviously you, know already played handy with that when as you pointed out On Special, report you know that where THE farsa was saying something different than what was saying In, english the idea that
they would retain a toll capacity control of the. Strait that's also unacceptable any Permanent chinese representation in terms of military build up around The, strait WHICH i think is something that is still you, know a, threat not not perhaps as you, know an immediate, one but it's something THAT i think could be in the cards as things
go really. Sideways AND i think that you, know just the actual you, know the ability of the of The trump administration to extract very real promises from them in terms of getting that uranium out to the degree that it's possible that those are all things that need to be part of. This and, UNFORTUNATELY i just don't think that it's trending in that, direction which is WHY i always thought this ceasefire seems to me like a temporary thing and not a permanent. Thing it. Is it is
a stage toward perhaps. Resolution but you, know as much as The president would like to hold to a six week, Timeline i'm just not sure that's going to. Happen AND i think that he knows a bad deal is not something that he wants to live with long, term and SO i have confidence in him on that front that he's not going to be willing to accept, that and.
So DO i BECAUSE i think he knows the stakes here. NOW i don't Think Vice President vance is going because he's a particularly skilled negotiated with The. IRANIANS i think that's the Witkop kushner. Role he's going because of what The romans used to call the. Dignitas he's the second highest official in The United states who's elected by the. People he just comes, In BUT i want him to open With Michael corleone From Godfather, too this is my, offer, nothing and then.
Just walk, out not even the check for the.
License you, know you're the second person today who knew the follow up line.
Who this. Is this IS i completely. Agree and here's by the, way this is an. OPPORTUNITY i Think Jadie vance has had different people criticize him for, saying you, know oh well he isn't really supportive of, this or he's and, FRANKLY i think a lot of it is blind then and the elephant they're they're you, know they're
interpreting different tea leaves over interpreting. THINGS i. Don't ACTUALLY i think THAT i think that his views are far more, uh they're far more, SOPHISTICATED i would, say than typical vice, presidents AND i don't AND i think that they have nuanced to them that people maybe don't. Respect so but stepping back from, THAT i think this is an opportunity for him to be extremely presidential in this moment and basically go in there and, say we know that you are going to lie to. Us we know that we
can't take your word at face. Value we have experienced the downsides of trying of having your word taken at face value under prior, administrations and that's why we are at this point. Today And i'm not willing to accept, that And i'm not going to take it back to.
The president well to be, ghosts to show pictures of the houses of the new five. Guys we know where you. Live we know, well we do know where they. LIVE i really.
Don't Think GODFATHER c is really. GOOD i need to go.
Back i'm going to come back With ben during the. Break we got a lot more to talk. About don't go Anywhere america except over to The Big ben podcast or The Daily, wire Where ben is in charge of the opinion. Section stay. Tuned i'm back With Ben. Dominic.
BEN i think it's completely absurd the conniptions that we saw from legacy media when The president posted his end of civilization posts that began with that but ended by making it very clear he was talking about the regime that's been in power for forty seven, years and he, Said god bless The iranian. PEOPLE i was having lunch that day with a Retired State Supreme court. Justice he, said basic rule a. LIE i read the whole, document and then you can at the. Document but We i've
heard so many people comment about. THAT i don't even think they read the second.
Line, WELL i don't think. THEY i don't think they needed. TO i think that they just jump to the same conclusion that they always. DO i mean that the people who were talking about it is that's staying on the. PRESIDENCY i mean it's like you, KNOW i mean they say that about. Anything you, know he can make a comment offhandedly at The easter egg role that they could use that. Way is this is a situation That i'm
completely tired. Of it makes no sense whatsoever. Anymore we know the way that The president of The United states. TALKS i like it personally BECAUSE i like coaches who are psychopaths and who you, know, say you, know they're going to destroy the other. Team they're going to wipe them off the phase of the. Earth they're going to destroy them on the. Field and, look you, KNOW i think that that's the way The president has always. Talked
he does so because he wants to deliver the. MESSAGE i am willing to do some crazy stuff in order to achieve the end THAT i, believe, sir the interest of The United states Of. America and guess, What iran hurt. HIM i, mean they did not want to come to the. Table they were not going coming to the. Table they two weeks ago they were, saying we aren't even talking to.
Him what is he talking? About we're not, negotiating we're not doing, anything and then it's, like, okay well actually here's some, things and so that to, me it's, like, look that's the way that you achieved that. End if you haven't learned that about this president by, NOW i just don't know why you're in the business of political. Analysis it's still. Stupid.
Ben he's broken so many. People AND i don't mean that. LIGHTLY i mean he's really broken some. People they can't think straight when he's connected to a. Topic AND i think that's going to.
ENDURE i think it. Is and you, know you AND, I you AND i have been around long enough that we know enough of the people who are, advocating literally at the beginning of The Iraq war that we should be doing things that went After iran, instead who are now you, know just completely on the opp this. Side, yeah and are basically TAKING i, mean in some cases even you, know going After israel in ways THAT i
never thought people would. That that is JUST i just if you're reaching that, point come, on look in the, mirror you, know try to try to take yourself more seriously than. That have some self.
Respect i'll be right back With Ben. Dominic don't go anywhere on The Big Weekend. Pod Welcome Back. America I'm Hugh Hewett Ben. Dominic, FIRST i just want to test the. Market The olympics ticket lottery is underway and everyone in my family wants to. Go we've never been swimming is two hundred dollars a? Ticket would you pay for?
THAT i. WOULD i went with my family to the nineteen ninety Six olympics in Uh Or, sorry wait a, minute which one was.
The one in the Land atlanta is ninety?
Six, yeah, six and had a great. Time we did, swimming and we did table, tennis which was actually very, exciting and we got a random map with the second go round of The Dream team absolutely Destroying. Brazil that was something that was very enjoyable for me to watch as AS i guess as a thirteen year, old so it WAS i highly recommend it to. People even if you can get just some of these random events that are out, there you don't necessarily need to see the.
Stars if you, can, great maybe pick one or, two but don't you, know it's still worth going just to, see so you just rack up some wins against.
Them now we go to politics cut number. Two Kamala harris talking With Al sharpton at The National Action Network Conference cut number. Two so are you going to run again in twenty?
Eight so, okay, okay you KNOW i.
Tried to be, subtle BUT i just figured i'd go RIGHT.
O that's is subtle at reve now, sharp it could never. Be we love you for many, things but not being. Subtle, LISTEN i, MIGHT i might be.
There we got everything in The kamla, package the, laugh the indirect, answer the attempt to be, funny and an indecisive. CONCLUSION i hope she, Runs she'll get.
CRUSHED i completely, agree AND i WILL i will, say you, know just you, know if, you if you perhaps are are looking at you, know the way that things are hashing out on the democratic. SIDE i do think it is telling that, people particularly in the prediction, markets are getting higher and higher on AOC's, chances AND i think that that's something that people should pay attention to as
a very real. Threat, now don't don't think that Because i'm saying THAT i have some newfound respects FOR aoc as as an, Intellectual but it's more because of the way things are playing out within that party right. Now if you have a tired retread which is What Kamala harris. Is if you have a far too slick and hampered by lots of baggage white guy In Gavin newsom THAT i, think you, know looks good to a lot of people who are billionaire, donors but maybe looks less good to the.
Country there's the potential for a real, populist leftist uprising that just you, know thrives on the same motivations that Elevated mamdani and the like IN aoc THAT i think people should not. Underestimate there's a desire for generational change on The democratic side that has been held down for far too, long AND i think you could see it explode in this.
Primery so NOW i want to talk about The democrats, generally because their reaction To iran has been deeply. Disappointing since the one consensus In america for twenty five years Of iron can't have a nuclear, weapon a president finally acted on, it and The democrats ran for the. Hills that's because they are in the thrall of their hard left PROGRESSIVE i think they're headed for their version of
The republican nineteen sixty four. Election that is where they just turned the party over to the hardest of the hardcore and sit back and get. Shellac that's WHAT i think is. Happening what do you? Think?
SO i think the big question there is how powerful The democratic established establishment still. Is and if you, believe AS i, believe That kanella was essentially their last gaft that putting her forward with something the establishment, did you know in preventing any kind of actual competitive, primary that it could have played out in any way that that is a situation where the establishment finally steps. Back democrat establishment figures have held the reins on that party for so.
Long we've seen it play out so many. Times remember the way that it did After South carolina in, particular in order to clear the lane For Joe. Biden, look this is is a moment WHERE i think that finally could be fading. Away and if that is the, case you could definitely see something like that play out and actually have the nomination of someone so radical that the country rejects them to such a degree that you're not looking at the kind of match that we've seen.
BEFORE i want to finish by talking about the absolute and ability Of democrats to figure out a message that resonates beyond the left wing of their. Party are there any moderates left at all in The Democratic?
Party that's a really good, Question. Hugh and my answer to that is. No and the reason THAT i answer it that way is because if you look at the actual polling data that we, have that is it's now by numerous polls or some of them have AN x to grind within, it but a lot of them do. Not that says where the Different democratic voters find themselves.
Aligned if they propose to them the different things that have been put forward By Bernie, sanders BY, aoc by other members of their associated wing of the, party they are a majority Of democrats say that they favor. It the most recent polls showed about fifty three percent versus around thirty percent or so for The Hakeem jeffries part of the, party which is also not moderate by the, way it is not in any way a shape or form.
Moderate and so to the degree that there are any moderates that, exists there are local level people and, alike and really they're few and far. Between you're more likely to find, them as you, know mayors of cities in red states than just about anything.
Else so in the old days there was always A Scoop, jackson there was always A Sam, nunn there Were series Wend for a, While Mark warner was that our senator here In. Virginia he's still On Senate. Intel i've enjoyed lunch with them a couple of. Times you have a very smart. Guy but is there Any democrat who's actually serious About iran And? CHINA i, mean really serious about thinking about.
This, NO i certainly have. NOT i certainly have not heard any of, that AND i don't think that we are going. TO i think that's the problem is you, said is that they're so beholden to the far wing of their party that they just can't afford to take any position that is in any way seen or viewed as, being you, know in favor of a position held by the. President you, know even on the basic level of saying we should be able to compete and win Against, china
which is something that you Know democrats are going. BACK i, mean this is something That democrats said, forever you, know in terms of their. Attitudes it was just a difference of opinion about what that represented and how that should be. ACHIEVED i just don't think you hear that. Anymore AND i think that when it comes to their pivot on
The iran. Situation you, know this was the whole justification for The iran deal in the first, place you, know the justification offered by all of these different people who supported, that you, know podbro answer to the, Problem, Pod, yes we have to we have to we have to do this in order to give. Them we have to give them this, big you, know sack of money in order to make them not do this thing that is so
abhorrent that it's a nex essential. Threat now they're acting, like, well that's just you, know anybody who says that they're that kind of threat anymore is just you, know aligning you, know a magat person or the, like which is just. Absurd and so THEN i.
Got thirty seconds. LEFT i Think biden will be ranked lower Than. Obama BUT i don't know That obama has anything to put in his. Library what does he put in his?
Library, well what what he probably puts in his library, is uh is is a lot of a lot of, hope a lot of hopium maybe, hope a lot of campaign, here a lot of, things a lot of you, know shepherd fairy paintings and the, like things that all came before he actually got.
Elected, yeah and there's there's just everything with Nothing. Obama there is a. Disaster THE jcpoa is a. Disaster that's going to be the hardest president to library to get exhibits For Ben, dominich fall him on, exit be. Dominant what