Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there, and of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, iTunes and Hillsdale. You at inside the Belwagh in the Relief Factors Studio, Welcome, thank you for joining. I got
a lot of great guests coming up today. Eleana Johnson of the Washington Freebeacon, the Commentary Podcast, Philip Alboni of The Global Post, Josh Krasauer from The Juitionsider. I've got Ben and Ben Talabu and Admiral Mark Montgomery from the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. And we're talking about one thing, almost only one thing, the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan,
between Vice President jd Vance, Special ENVOYE. Steve Whitcock and Jared Kushner and whomever the Iranian regime sends, whatever is left of that regime. They're sending representatives to Islamabad. Meanwhile, Israel has rejected the idea of a ceasefire, in Lebanon. Iran has issued so many different statements. We don't quite know what to believe there. I do know that they are alleged Supreme Leader Hamini two point zero, the one who's in a coma income and he might be dead.
He issued a written statement that was read over at Iran TV. And we don't know who's running what in Iran. Iran is not seeking more, but we will not forfeit it's right and will consider all resistance fronts as a unified entity. He also added they're the definite victor in the war. All right, So there's propaganda and there's posturing, and we've got lots of banging fits and shoes on lecterns at the UN cruse chef style. But I remind everyone at the beginning we have lots of presidents to
study when high stakes international negotiations occur. And I got to break this down for the Steelers fan. I'm not going to tell you about the Congress of Berlin. I'm not going to tell you about the Congress of.
Vienna.
I'm not going back to the history of diplomacy, but I'll use some obvious examples. We can go back to nineteen thirty eight, Neville Chamberlain goes to Munich and basically gives Hitler everything he wants and comes back with an umbrella and a piece of paper saying peace in our time, and the world goes to war. World War Two begins a year later. We've also got full and complete surrender by the bad guys. The good guys that would be Appomatics.
In eighteen sixty five, when Lee offers the surrender of the Army of Northern Virginia to Grant, Commander in chief of all the Union armies. That's a total capitulation. And by the way, that can happen, and we might not know it might be a secret deal in between. We've got Rekovic nineteen eighty six. This is the one I know the best because I was in the Reagan administration. I wasn't there, but boy were we transfixed. President Reagan went off to negotiate with the charismatic new leader of
the Soviet Union, and we'd run through Leonid Breshna. Then we had the head of the KGB and he died. Then we had Tchernanco and he died. And finally the pall up hero says, let's go with someone who's under the age of eighty, and they picked Cher, they picked Gorbachev and Andre Gromico has been around as long as as the other guys. But he's still alive. He's still breathing. He says to his communist buddies.
Don't worry.
The man has a nice smile, but he has teeth of iron. Turned out he didn't. He had a glass jaw. He went to Iceland and wanted Reagan to do one thing, give up the Strategic Defense initiative. He was willing to put everything on the table, give up Sdi. Reagan would not give up Sdi and Reagan walked out, and the Soviet Union collapsed. Five years later. Three years after that, the Berlin Wall came down. Sometimes the walk out and
no result is the best thing that can happen. What we can't have is a Munich, right, There are lots of things in between. By the way, there's the Yalta Conference nineteen forty five, Fdr Churchill sit down with Stalin. Basically Fdr gets his hat handed to him because he's being advised by algera history as a Communist spy, and it's really just the Soviet Union. United States left Britain has spent their empires almost over and Churchill's kind of
cut out of Yalta. There's the Potsdam talks. Truman doesn't really know what's going on. He knew on the job. They don't really get that. There's the Tehran Conference during I think it's nineteen forty three during World War Two, when FDR and Churchill at his power get together with Stalin in Tehran and they agree on a second front in nineteen forty four. So there are all sorts of meetings all over. We can go back to the River Neemen,
the Treaty of Tislit. Napoleon meets with Alexander, the one in the middle of the River Nemen on especially built wrap that would convey equality, and they enter into a peace deal in eighteen oh seven and lasts until eighteen twelve. Begins to fall apart a couple of years before that, but Napoleon marches into Russia in eighteen twelve and is doomed. And there's a bunch of other things. So we have no idea what's going to come out. But I do
want you to know one thing. Everyone who's out there saying that this is a debacle or that the United States lost. They are more interested in hating Donald Trump than loving the United States. They're more interested in their agenda of scoring points against Trump, which they don't do because they're just talking to each other, than in seeing the United States conclude this war, this battle with a
significant win. Now we already have a significant win. Iran's military has been reduced by seventy five to ninety percent. They have lost their ability to project power except in the Persian Gulf and the straight of arm moves, and they have one weapon left.
Which is the straight Or moves.
And securing the straight of Or moves might require a long standing convoy operation that might take years. It might require no fly zones, might require the resumption of the war in full.
Lebanon.
Israel is going to enter into negotiations with the government of Lebanon, but they're continuing the war with Hesbela, the remnants of it. We don't know what's going to happen, but the good guys are winning and they can't give it away. The only thing that worries me is a Munich style agreement. And I want Vice President of Vance coming back declaring peace in our time.
He wouldn't do that. He's too smart.
Neither would Witcoffin Jared Kushner, both of whom are very experienced negotiators, and they know the Iranians. I think they're sending two experienced negotiators with the Iranians who were very, very, very responsible and relaying to the President that we're going nowhere with these people. So he started the war and they're setting a symbol of authority. President Trump's not going
to go deal with these people. But they're sending the number two person in the United States, and though he has no constitutional authority, he is the only other elected person in the United States beside Trump who's elected by all the people, Shadie Vans.
So it's big.
Time, high stakes. But I've been reading take after take after take, and they're all wrong. The Iranians blinked, is keep that in mind when they agreed to this. They blinked when they agreed to a ceasefire, because they said from the beginning of the war there will be no ceasefire. There will be no ceasefire. There will be no ceasefire. Now there's a seafire. It's not holding up really really well. I think Saudi Arabia might be under some drone attacks as we speak, but.
I'm not sure. No one's really sure.
But Donald Trump confirmed that he told Prime Minister Netnaho in a phone call yesterday to scale back Israel's bombing of Lebanon in order to preserve the fragile ceasefire in Iran to at least get to Islamabad.
But they hasn't.
President Trump did not ask Prime Minister in Netah who to stop the attacks that are necessary against Hasbolah, which is on its last legs. And they need Iran to come out of this with a win because they don't have any money and the people of Lebanon hate them. So all you need to know is that the United States has the upper hand. They have scored a dramatic strategic victory over Iran's military, which is ruined. Don't use the word decimated. People like to use the word decimated.
Every time I hear someone use the word decimated, and someone will probably use it today. Decimated actually means to lose one tenth of your force. It was a punishment that the Roman legions would be subject to when they really screwed up, like Marcus Crass has took over the legion that failed to kill Spartacus and his slave rebellion thousands of years ago, and he ordered decimation. That's where every tenth man in line got clubbed to death by
nine of his buddies. And you know what, It's a pretty brutal way of inflicting punishment on a failed legion. But decimation means to lose one tenth. It's not what happened to Iran. They've lost seventy five to ninety percent of their military. They cannot project power. Admiral Brad Cooper took to the airwaves today to give the latest scent Coom update. I want to play it for you right now. CUTT number six.
I'm met Brad Cooper, Commander of US Central Command. Less than six weeks ago, more than fifty thousand of America's Sons and DAWs uniform launched Operation Epic Fury and embarked on the mission of Profound Consequence. We set out to dismantle the Iranian regime's ability to project power beyond its own borders, and we clearly accomplished this task. Iran has
suffered a generational military defeat. The United States and Israel systematically destroyed Iran's ability to conduct large scale military operations for years to come. Iran's conventional military capability, built over forty years at the cost of billions of dollars, has been eliminated. As the President expressed earlier this week, our core strategic military objectives have been achieved. After destroying Iran's missile, drone,
and naval capabilities and their defensive industrial base. After successfully conducting more than thirteen thousand strikes on Iranian military targets and flying thousands upon thousands of combat flights, US forces have paused offensive operations in accordance with the ongoing ceasefire. However, we remain present, we remain vigilant, and we remain ready if cold.
That's all you need to know is that we are in a very fragile ceasefire. It's one Iran asked for, Iran blinked, and we don't know what's going to happen. But we sent the heavy hitters, the people that the Iridians notes can speak with authority for President Trump, and if there's a deal to be had to remove the uranium and open the strait, they can have that deal and have a continuing ceasefire. But they're not going back to terrorizing the world. That's not happening. That's the minimum
is the opening of the strait of Hormons. Stay tuned. I'll be right back America. I'm Eleano Y. Johnson is editor in chief of the Washington Free Beacon and a participant in almost every commentary podcast Monday through Friday.
Eleana, good to see you. I'm going to remind the audience.
You're graduate of Yale and Charles Hill was a great professor there. He took Grand strategy from him. So I'm going to my quiz is, we've had lots of high profile negotiations before the Islamab attacks. Do you expect them to be Munich, Rakovic, Appomatics, Yalta, Potsdam, the Congress of Berlin? What do you expect out of this weekend? O? G.
Hugh?
Well, I'm certainly hoping for appomatics. I'm not sure. I uh, I'm hoping for appomatics, and uh, you know, maybe I think Raykovic is more more likely.
That's what I am predicting. I am afraid of Munich. Are you afraid of Munich?
Oh? I'm petrified of Munich, and you know I'm However, I'm petrified of something worse, which is that after ceasing hostilities, there will be reluctance to resume war after two weeks if Iran does not agree to give up it's nuclear materials and its future capabilities, and that future presidents. You know that this president won't want to go back to war, and that no other president before this has been willing to confront this regime militarily, and that no future president
will do so either. So I'm afraid of that, Okay.
So am I I don't think however, if there's been a report of a breach in the ceasefire today drones fired at Kuwait, but we know that Iran's got thirty one provinces and a mosaic defense strategy, and any IRGC commander and any of those provinces can do whatever they want, so it's pretty hard to patrol. One breach with drones of Kuwait is not a reason to resume the war.
I want to know.
If it's acceptable to you, because it's acceptable to me if they get a pledge from Iran not to fire on the Strait of Hormones, a standdown, and negotiations on the removal of the in retched uranium in exchange for easing of sanctions, which will take a long time.
Would that be acceptable to you.
Under no conditions? Do I really think we should be easing sanctions on this regime and allowing cash to flow into this And I would point out one thing in my view, Iran is already cheating on this ceasefire. It was a cease fire in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Horror Moves, and I don't believe that straight is open. It is an international waterway, and Iran is asserting control over it, demanding permission for vessels to
cross and charging tolls. Maybe that won't continue, but as of right now, they're violating that ceasefire.
Secretary, I'm going to caution.
My caution is I've seen reports that they're charging tolls and that they threaten and that people have turned back. I saw a report that the ship that turned back was in fact the Iranian shadow fleet that was afraid of getting snatched by US. I have no idea what's going on there. Is it possible, It's just we don't know what's going on.
It's possible. I think we're in a fog of peace period. It's possible, but I hope that our representatives refuse to sit down at the table if this is in fact a violation. The other thing that's concerning me is that the White House Press Secretary said yesterday Lebanon was not part of this ceasefire, and then it does appear the President is leaning on Israel to go easy on Hesbalah in Lebanon as a result of this. So it seems to me that we are giving quite a lot, and
I don't really see the Iranians giving. I actually see them pressing their luck here.
Okay.
I saw them blink when they agreed to the ceasefire negotiations because they said not now, not ever, and never, we won't ever have a ceasefire, and then they did. And now they're doing the classic Gharanian Islamist option, which is.
To lie about what they agreed to.
However, I'm willing to suspend judgment until we see what comes out of Islamabad. But I do believe I want to hear what people think is a loss, and I think a loss is if they have any control over the strait of hormones. That's actually a strategic loss.
Do you agree with that.
I think a loss is if we don't achieve the political objectives we set out to achieve. I think we've achieved many of our military objectives. The ballistic missile and nuclear programs have been set back quite a bit in a brilliant military campaign, but they cannot have any control
over the strait of horror moons. One hundred percent agree with you, and the reason we went into this war was to strip them of their nuclear capabilities and to extract from them a concession that they would not pursue those capabilities, and so I think that's also quite important to the control gre We're worse off than when we started, but I do think that the nuclear ambitions are quite important to.
I agree about the fact that we've got to have an understanding that they are not moving forward with nuclear weaponry. But if it was here's two hundred of our six hundred pounds, take away a third of the sanction, then you can come get the four hundred pound and we get two thirds of the sanctions off, and then you get the six hundred pound and we get all the sanctions off.
Does that work for you, Hugh.
I'd like to know what kind of verification goes along with that. I'm really skeptical of funding a regime that is fundamentally run by the IRGC. Despite what the President and the Defense Secretary is saying, there really hasn't been regime change. It is still really run by the same people that maybe you know a lower IQ three point zero version, but we haven't quite had regime change. And with that money they will rebuild their ballistic missiles to
protect what they have. So I'd like to know what the verification is, and you know, I suppose I'm open to that with the right sort of verification.
And so I can agree with all that as well. But do you think it is correct to be condemning the ceasefire as a taco? Jimmy Kimmel last night did that, and I see it everywhere on X. There's no way to judge it other than okay, they're going to the table. Iron said they were never going to go to the table. I think they said uncle, but now they don't want to be understood to be saying uncle. Last word to you, Aliana one minute.
No you I think you know what you hear People who are steeped in diplomacy always say is that diplomacy only works with the threat of force looming In the background, and I really think that's the key here. I'm quite skeptical of the ceasefire because I'm skeptical that Iran will negotiate away things that we couldn't win on the battlefield. But I'm not condemning it. I'm willing to wait and see.
And so the key thing is being willing to go back to war if Iran gives us the run around in these negotiations.
Agreed, polar Rekovic walk out and presume firing at will. Eleian Ali Johnson, thank you. Follow on exit Elean O. Y Johnson, reader in the Free Beacon at the Freebeacon and Freebeacon dot Com. I'll be right back America Institution, Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Josh Cuash Hours, editor in chief of Jewish Insider. Josh, you studied international affairs for a long time. In the history of diplomacy, I got a long list here. We've got the Piece
of Tislit in eighteen oh seven. We have the Congress of Vienna in eighteen fourteen. We've got Appomatics in eighteen sixty five. That's pretty straightforward. Got the Congress of Berlin in eighteen seventy eight. We've got the Munich Agreement in nineteen thirty eight, We've got y Alta in nineteen forty five, Potsdam in nineteen forty five, We've got Rekovic in nineteen eighty six. What do you expect out of Islamabad twenty twenty six.
Che, I don't expect much.
And I feel like we've played this, uh, this game before where we've engaged in serious negotiations with the Iranian regime through an intermediary. This time it's the Pakistanis. This time we're sending Vice President Jade Vance to lead the negotiations, which may suggest that the White House is thinking about more concessions than then in the past. But you know, look, it's hard to read whether this is actually I'm very skeptical this is going to lead to any real deal
or anything concrete. I think it's you know, maybe on both ends to buy some time.
UH.
And what's been a pretty pretty devastating war for the Iranians, and in a tough, tough political moment for the president, dealing with a rough you know, at least on the on the gas prices side of the economy, dealing with a little bit of political pressure back home. So you know, I feel like this is almost a way to buy some time more than seeing this as a real likelihood that it'll lead to an agreement after two weeks.
I think it's going to do a recovic two point zero. I think our guys are going to walk out. I certainly hope they walk out unless they get the minimum for a win. Now, I was on Special Report on Tuesday night when this happened, and so I had to do the instant reaction. I said, well, President Trump's tweet says the straits of horror moves will will open and will remain open. And I said, that's a win if that happens. If they open and we negotiate, that's a win.
We have to negotiate over the highly enriched uranium, about sanctions. There's lots to talk to them about, but the strait has to be open or it's not a win. Do you agree with that assessment?
Well, then we talked on the show.
The three things that I've been paying close attention to is the metrics of success is you know, did did the US Israeli operation uh degrade? If I destroy the ballistic missile supply and missile launching missile launcher, supply the nuclear material as I've been dealt with, and and and and in the straight up hor moves, and then is it going to be opened up?
At first, it's outed like, at least from Trump's.
Assessment, that that that was happening. But we now seeing that the Iranians have closed it again and allegedly because of the Israeli military operation against Kasbola and Lebanon, and that's there's been some movement on that front as well today. But look, I still think there are a lot of incomplete grades and I think there's a lot of TBD
grades on the other two parts of the equation. So you know, I think we, you know, the Israelis are a little bit you know, I think there there's a lot of questions and more questions, frankly you than answers about the degree to which the operation degraded Iran's military operational abilities and what it's going to happen economically, and will ran back down in terms of unblocking the straight of hor moves.
Okay, let's just assume that we go back to the war on Monday, and because that's what happens after the record, it may keep threatening ships.
We have to secure the strait of warm moves.
We have to Is the world better off then than it was fifteen months ago?
Look in the certainly Iran's military operations have been at the very least degraded to what degree, to what extent? I think that that's what we don't know fully. I you know, a lot of the early readouts about the percentage of ballistic missiles destroyed and the missile launchers destroyed seem seemed to be very good news. But then we kept on seeing Iran causing havoc to the skies of Tel Aviv and across the region with the Gulf States
throughout that six week period. So I'd like to see a better or more detailed accounting of what Iran still has and its supplies. But I do think that if Iran's ability to you know, create havoc in the region, to you know, it's missile supplies that has meaningfully been degraded, I think that's definitely a win on the side of
the US and Israel. I also think, obviously, the fact that so many of Iran's top political and military leaders were taken out both in the first twenty four hours of the operation, but throughout the six week period of the war. I mean that clearly there's a lot of brain brain drain in Iran, and there's a lot of political vacuums taking place.
And let's talk about Hezbela as well. Israel just hammered Hesbela yesterday. They took all the planes that they weren't going to fly in Israel and they combined them with the planes that they were using over Lemana, and they just pounded the daylights out of the remnants of Hesbelah so much so that Iran said, well, we can't have these talks. But they're having the talks. They're just doing
the Iranian thing. I think Hesbelah is ruined and Hamas has ruined, and Iran down to ten percent of what they were.
So even if we go back to war and we pay more for.
Gas, I'll take that any day over what they were and what they could threaten on ten six twenty three.
Any day I'll take that.
Yeah.
And of course visually Hesbola the I think after talking to the President today, the Israeli Prime Minister agreed to at least start negotiations with the Lebanese government and pause the attack, So there's a little bit of TVD on the on the northern front. Though I agree with you one hundred percent that HESBLA has been significantly degraded from where things were in our Coober seven three years ago.
The politics.
Look, the thing I think that that has that Trump has struggled with is the politics of it all.
Uh.
You know, if he gave a speech to the public like he did much later on in the war, and and really talked about the mission, talked about the objectives, did things in a very crystal clear fashion, and and brought things to Congress, and I think you know that it's undeniable. Iran has been a scourge to the United States for for.
Such a long time.
He's been saying that, but there just wasn't the ability to bring things to the public. So I think when when you see the gas prices going up and you see the economic squeeze for the time being, you know, it's created a lot A lot of people don't understand the mission that the US has undertaken and what the achievements that they've made. I think the pending on briefings have been helpful. I think that's been been a big
plus in terms of the communication side. But the President, I think kind of cut a lot of Americans by surprise, and it's been hard to kind of maintain that public support when the economy, especially the gas prices, were taking the hit during this period.
Well, I'll play Brad Cooper again. In the course of the show, I thought of his statement today was pretty good. But I would encourage everyone to go out and ask Rock or ask chat Jeep, TP or your favorite AI what was the reaction after Reagan walked out of Rekovic? Because Rekkovic was actually a big win for freedom in the West, but it didn't look like it at the time. You're too young, Josh. I don't even know if you're born. Are you born in nineteen eighty six?
And the circus history I was born I mentioned eighty one. So I do as someone who lived during the fall of the Berlin Wall, that is that you're right to you. But this is an important moment, at the tipping point moment and where things, how the talks go and what happens on there are going to be very tough to up hit.
Josh Crashaw. We'll talk again next week.
Follow Josh at Josh crash Hour and also Jewish Insider at Jewish Underscore Insider.
I'll be right back, America. Thank you.
Hour begins with Ben and Ben Talablu of the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy.
He's a senior program director for Iran. He's also the.
Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. Ben, and welcome back. What do you make of where we are on this Thursday at five pm each coast time.
Well, always good to be back with you, Hugh. The world is indeed full of surprises. We do live in interesting times. The Islamic Republic is getting ready to negotiate, reportedly at the highest level indirectly since nineteen seventy nine. As you know, they've asked for Vice President JD.
Vance to be there. The Vice President himself is keen.
To go, and unfortunately a little bit of a slide, I don't want to say in the US position, but a potentially a worrying sign of the Islamic Republic's ability to still use pressure and set the table for negotiations as it deems fit. As you know, there's been a
ceasefire for about two days right now. But the joke best conveyed not by me, but by people in Iran who've been posting this on social media with the very limited internet access they have, is that man, we can't sleep yet due to all the sounds of the ceasefire, meaning that the war is still continuing despite the ceasefire allegedly still underway.
And why that matters here.
Is because Israel really should not have to turn off its military mission against Lebanese Hezbolah, but that is seemingly a sticking point for the Islamic Republic in these talks. There was a report from earlier today that these rallies believe they got the Secretary General nine Costle of Hesbela.
That still hasn't been confirmed as of now.
We're waiting for more local sources, potentially Hesbala sources to come out with that information. But there was a family member that was killed as well as another seniors senior
ranking Hesbel official. And this matter is because the latest news out of Washington is now Washington will mediate between these rallies and the Lebanese in DC next week, and that might be a move by the US to try to placate this Iranian concern of what is going on in Lebanon while you are negotiating a ceasefire and a potential deconfliction deal with US in Pakistan. So keep your eye on how the table is being set for negotiations up until Saturday, and then after Saturday, let's.
Wait and see what first contact looks like post war.
Now a Benham, I have been explaining all program long that we've had lots of high profile meetings in the course of the history of diplomacy, from the piece of Tislet to Rekovic. We've had Munich as the worst case, Yalta has a bad case. Rekovic is something that looked bad that turned out well, and then we like appomatics. What do you think is the most likely result? Using a historical analogy that might be familiar to everyone except the Steelers fans.
Funny thing, I was actually in Pittsburgh just recently, so you're hitting close to where I just was.
Using a past diplomatic metaphor, I think anyone that has collapsed, any one that has been oversold but under delivered, and here I think there's been a ton in the Iran case, the Geneva negotiations, the Vienna negotiations, the indirect diplomacy via the Omani's pay take your pick of the attempts post Trump term one by divided administration by America's Middle Eastern partners European partners to try to moderate or mediate even by the P five plus one, to try to bring
America and Iran together, where politically something was over sold but in the end was under delivered and under delivered because of the chasm that exists in principle between America and between Iran. So for my view, the reason I'm taking this, you could say, rather pessimistic view of what may come on Saturday. And who knows, perhaps the Iranians may surrender. I think that's low probability. Who knows, perhaps the US may strike Iran again. I mean, if passes prologue,
President Trump does like striking the Islamic Republic. Wild negotiations are underway both in June as well as in late February, so you can never say never. But if all things equal, all things hold, it'll be over promised and under delivery.
Which might leave the US in a bit more of a frustrated position.
So from there you can take your pick of any historical example of negotiations.
That collapse and lead to war, lead to resumed war.
I like to point to Rekovic Benham for the simple reason I was in the Reagan administration. I remember it well. I want to read to you the first two paragraphs out of the New York Times after those meetings collapse. Moments after President Reagan and Gorbachev concluded their meeting in Rekovic Sunday night, its outcome seemed clear.
Mister Reagan was grim faced, even angry.
And Secretary of State George Schultz showed up at a news conference looking haggard and drain quote. I have never even seen Schultz exude through his word, the base of his comments, his facial expression such disappointment and defeat. City key administration official. Okay, it collapsed. Three years later that Berlin Wall came down, and two years after that the union dissolve.
The least worst case is JD.
Vance and mister Whitcoff and Jared Kushner leave and they get nothing like happened in round one, but.
We go back to war.
The worst case is the strait remains closed and we don't go back to war.
Do you agree with me about that?
Potentially, I would say the worst case is America actually pays at the political negotiating table or at the bargaining table for that which is it has already taken away for free from this regime. You know, the goal here is to not pivot to a domain where the regime is more comfortable or more capable than us.
I fear. I mean this with immense respects.
We may have intellectually and economically made that switch for them already. The US was winning this when it came to politics and security, but Iran's ability to make it about energy and economics got had a sweet spot for
them and got in an Achilles heel for us. And the more we concerned about markets rather than military forces, the more ultimately the Islamic Republic realize it has leveraged now pivoting from a conflict which it was always a matter of time that the regime will lose to a domain negotiations diplomacy where the regime does have muscles that could rival ours.
That to me is a little bit worrisome.
So I think the worst case is actually that we have to stabilize through sanctions relief a regime like.
The Islamic Republic where we are so.
Interested in the optics of a political victory following our military engagement that we actually end up expending more than that which we get.
So and that's the only result is get worse.
The only result that will cause President Trump politically is that one. If he does that, he'll split the Republican Party, and the Reaganas will be very angry if he does that, and they will be very disappointed. So I don't think he's going to do that. I think this president's been on the Iran file for since nineteen seventy nine. He loves these people and he understands how they negotiate, and wit Coffin Kushner.
Pulled the plug.
Why is there so little confidence that the United States can actually call their bluff because they got nothing they really I mean, we can take the straight We did that before.
They got more missiles now, but we've done that before.
The challenge with the Strait is by us over focusing on it.
We may have signaled to the regime that we were more sensitive to market forces than meets the eye. The regime actually expended more forces you just mentioned during the tanker war against US and against Arab partners related to Persian Gulf shipping.
Than it has now. But somehow now its threat is more magnified.
That has a lot more to do with markets, with firms, with shippers, with insurers that it has to do with America or Israel or the UAE or even the capability or credibility of Iran's military forces in twenty twenty six than it.
Did back in the mid to late nineteen eighties. So again, those are the things that worry me. Those are the.
Things that keep me up at night. But you are right that the president, you know, in the big picture, is seeing the issue the right way. My only fear is if we again worry more about these market forces so publicly, that is a signal to the regime to hunker down and resist. And again, these guys can do more with less because they're not keen to provide for their people anyway. That which we constitute in terms of rebuilding, they.
Don't think is the priority. When it's rebuilding.
We think after a war, rebuilding is rebuilding society, rebuilding the economy. Those are things that the regime is ready to let slide because they will take every dollar, every penny, every real no matter how worthless that currency is, and not invested into the economy, not invested into infrastructure, but back into the arms race so that they can stay afloat.
I agree with all that.
I just don't think we're going to do it because I think Donald Trump is Yeah. Now, Eli Lake is just posted over at the Free Press an article on the five person governing Council. It includes three i r GC hardcore veterans, the Foreign Minister, Archie and the President Possession. Who do you think I think that's really just three hardcore IRGC guys are running this.
Do you agree with that?
I agree with you.
And funny story. You know here in English we say great minds think alike. In Persian we say a heart has a pathway to a hearts. We had FDD, a colleague of mine, actually pend a profile on the five most important people.
It's and it's basically a similar constellation. We think. We put it out about a week or a week and a half ago.
Eli just actually texted me his piece funny story, and so I will respond with ours. But it is all about Ahmad Vahidi who is heading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and General Zohlgad who is heading the Supreme National Security Council. Pay attention to those people. Obviously, the presidency is not what it is in Iran as it is here in the States. I would pay attention to the head of the judiciary as well, who was previously on the Leadership Council.
That's Age who's been ahead of the judiciary and really head of Geiran's injustice system.
For far too long.
But I would recommend folks take a look at that pre press piece fight Eli because this is a system based on people, not based on.
Institutions, and they may not have those jobs for long if they don't open the straight That's my view. Ben Ben and Ben Talablue, thank you for being with us. Follo him at the real Ben to Hey, I would get that wrong. Follow him at the real benin bt B e h n a m the real Benan bt. I'll be right back on the U huit chew. Welcome back in America. I'm go Hewett Rear. Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired United States Navy is a senior Fellow with the
Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Admiral, welcome back. Thank you for joining me. I want to skip right to what I think is going to happen. Rekovic two point zero a walkout by the America delegation of the Iraniandelic collapse and then just tell me what happened. If Donald Trump orders Admiral Cooper to reopen the Strait of Hormotes?
How did he do it?
So first, I think we got to go back to whatever targeting is left on the deliberate and dynamic targeting sets.
And you know that's what they've been doing.
They did not their planning teams didn't you know, taking a Loha Friday after the ceasefire was discussed and take liberty. They sat back and got a good chance to re examine their target sets. Where where do we think mines, drones, missiles and small attack craft that could threaten assets in the States or who moves are And so they've been getting that targeting set together.
They'll come back to them with a hey, we need to apply.
Power for three, five, seven, nine days whatever it is of bombing, including having aircraft that are just up for dynamic targeting that as we hit something, somebody else moves kind of stuff. And then you know, be ready to apply that power once you get that rate reduced down to an acceptable risk for the US assets and the merchants going through the straits then have to set up an extremely you know, equipment and.
Manpower intensive convoys set up.
We've talked about it once or twice, but I think you know, to me, it's you've got to have that unblinking eye, really focus your persistent overhead stare on that area of vulnerability, you know, fifty to seventy miles on either side of the straits. Because their runnings won't just attack at the top of the straits, attack.
All the way through that. You've got to.
Put combat air patrol, you know, eight aircraft and four cap stations, probably just sitting there with the rockets the advanced precision killed weapons system to shoot down the drones, but also strike weapons on their pylon so that they can.
If someone pops your head up, get lad right.
And so you've got those aircraft up, and that's a twenty four to seven commitment of eight aircraft.
That's a lot.
And then you've got a tens or armed helicopters down on the deck to hit the fast attack craft. Twenty four to seven, so probably a tens in daylight, helicopters at night. I mean, your choice on that. And then
you've got to have destroyers. So this extra time is giving us time to flow in destroyers from Japan, from Hawaii, from San Diego that I think have been happening, from the East Coast that I think have been happening, so that you have a thicker number of destroyers, not just the destroyers with the Bush Carrier Strike Group that's coming in, but independent sailing destroyers that are then part of the convoy operation.
And then you can begin doing.
Your convoys and they'll be risk but once you get a couple through, you'll understand, and then they'll have to be a decision on mind sweeping. Based on how the Iranians are routing ships right now, we probably have a pretty good idea if there's a minefield laid and where it is, and then we can, you know, decide how we go about sweeping it. But I assume at that point all three lcs will be back, you know, uh, cutting circles somewhere in the North Arabian Sea, ready to go do that mission.
Now.
I know you've expressed confidence before, and you've been your prediction has been worn out that the Lincoln in the Ford didn't have much to worry about. If Arlie Burke class destroyers are going up and down the straights of hour moves in convoy. Do those ships as both are the merchant ships have anything? What's the degree of risk to the best destroyers we have?
There's risk.
First of all, the minds are a big risk to me. And then you know, it's a very short if they if they've somehow kept an anti ship cruise missile with its tail launcher available and it pops out, I think one of them launching isn't a risk to a destroyer. They'll have no problem with it. Even at a short range like that. They have a short decision cycle. They're going to be biased towards hostile. It was biased towards
shooting anything coming out. And then but then if there's two or three launched simultaneously from slightly different angles at one asset, that's going to be hard. I think the destoriers can still defend themselves. What becomes a little bit harder is defending someone who's slightly off access from me, like a merchant ship.
So my gut reactions.
You know, almost all weapon systems are optimized to be their coolest and best defending themselves, and then their area air defense capabilities are good, but slightly reduced, So there is a risk and that's why you keep bombing a little bit. You take this pause to see if anyone showed their hand like they took something out and put it back in, moved something that unusual communications around an area.
I'm sure we're developing.
Target sets to continue to viscerate that the thing that does was more likely to come out, you know, come flying at of a drones, and I'm a little less worried about those in terms of I think the FA teens can pick n F sixteens and F fifteen's can pick them off with their advanced posision killed weapon system.
But you know there'll be more of them that could be like.
This pause is also giving the second amphib with the second Marine Expeditionary Unit time to get there from San Diego, joined the one that came from Japan. What do you foresee them having, if any, role in securing the strait? I mean, do they go ashore at some point and sweep up and down and inland in order.
To secure a patch opposite the straight.
You know, I think seizing and holding territory against a population of ninety million who who although they may not like the regime, do not like being occupied would be a stretch. And look, we've just demonstrated we weren't ready. Our landforces are not ready for drone attack. For long range drawing attacks by your heads, they hit things they shouldn't have been able to hit because we have not properly designed acceptor drones.
Similarly, I don't think we're ready.
For first person view draw the FPV one way attack drones, the shorter range ones that kill the Ukrainians will tell you they kill. Eighty percent of Russian combat casualties come from drone strikes, either air or ground drone strikes.
I don't think we're ready for that either.
I don't think we have the jaming capabilities inherent in our units in a way that would be helpful. So I think we should hold off seizing and holding land because the rest.
Of force would be too high.
Plus once you do that, I want to talk about every asset you have being piled in for risk to mission to protect, to protect those assets and the impact that I have on all your other mission other which if you seize an island like carg Island, I'm not saying we would do that at this point, but if you did, you have to put multiple destroyers around it provide air defense for the assets there. So I really
don't think seizing and holding land. You can use marines to clear someone off of something doing an assertion extraction in smaller units, I see value in that, But if you're going to season hold land man, you're you're really taking a lot of risk of force.
Give me a question.
I don't think the Ukrainians obviously know a lot more about using and defending drones than we do, but we have a lot of sunk costs and not being Ukraine's friends over the last two years. Have we gotten over that and are we working with the Ukrainians to absorb what they know about defense and offense needs to be drawne we have a minute.
Yep, look we are.
We have not done enough yet to absorb everything they have and absorb their technology. And their technology is not perfect for us that you know, people, I love the Ukrainian stuff, you know, I believe in it. I also know that it doesn't link into our weapon. We like to have all the weapons systems linked together so your drone doesn't accidentally shoot.
Down my F fifteen. Right, So I'm a tiny there's the art legitimate concerns.
But when we.
Dismissed them a year ago as part of our general dismissing if you don't have cards, they had cards and we didn't take You know, we could have grabbed a couple of aces from them.
We didn't.
Uh.
Still time to do it. I hope we do.
Admiral Mark Montgomery follow him on AX at Mark C.
Montgomery. He knows of which he speaks. Thank you, my friends.
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That's GlobalPost dot com and Philip and I have gotten now for you as special HH when you use my code HH. And they're not a sponsored The Global Post is just something I believe in making people literate. What's the deal, Philip? If they use the subscription code h H, that's pretty good.
So it's good. Yeah, it's very good. It's really an incredible deal.
It's only twenty three dollars for a full year of Global Posts, so that's you know, five days a week, every day, every week of the year.
And always full of news from around the world that you no longer get in many newspapers, or if you do, you miss a lot, like for example, what's going on in Peru. When Philip sent me this story for today, I actually thought that Peru had settled down last year and I missed another.
Impeachment, Philip. I mean, I had no idea. I thought they'd settled down.
They had seven presidents in a row who've been removed from office, I mean in ten years, just amazing.
So we don't have a reason why we're doing We.
Don't have any problems compared to Peru.
I want to put up a map so people, you know, the Steelers fans know where Peru is. We'll throw it up there. As you're talking. Please explain to people as what's going on.
So they have had entrenched political stability really going back through the twentieth century for many reasons. Maybe you remember here the Shining Path guerrilla movement that was a huge problem.
All kinds of.
Attacks, and yeah there was President Fujimori was the president at that time. In any event, there's a combination of problems. They have criminal drug gangs. This is a problem of course, you know in Colombia, in Ecuador, now in Peru, and it's just hard to control so much money, so many drugs.
They have a difficult economy, that.
Not giving people who left opportunity. They don't have enough government services, and they have endemic corruption. I mean, of these seven presidents in a row, most of them have been impeached for reasons of corruption, or at least they were accused of it. Some were actually sentenced to prison Philly long terms ten years, twenty five years. So this is they just can't seem to get past this and have stability. They have thirty candidates running for president.
And when those thirty candidates, when they vote, do they come down to two then the top two vote getters.
If somebody gets fifty one percent, it's over. But the likelihood of that is small, so there would be a runoff election in June if no one gets fifty one percent.
Now there's a Fuji Mori on the ballot, but it's his daughter. Does she have any poll by name identification like Bolsonaro in Brazil the Sun is running.
She does, I.
Mean she does, She actually has in the polling, she has more support than anyone else, but that's only fifteen percent, so you can see the chances of her or someone else getting to fifty one is not great. But Peru's an incredible country you know, one of the greatest tourist destinations in the world, you know, with Machu.
Pichu, and they have such different topography. My law school roommate is retired now goes down there and works with the local Catholics on an agricultural project. I know that Jim Harbaugh, coach Haarbaugh, has been down there a lot with the Catholic Church, and of course Popo Leo spent a lot of time in Peru. I'm so sort of confused by how can a country that is so beloved by people who visit it be so unstable in it's politics.
It's not like revolutionary violence. It's just corruption, isn't it.
It is, that's right.
I mean, the gorilla movements have pretty much all finished, at least in Peru. I mean, this is just a long standing problem. As I said, it really goes back to the beginning of the twentieth century.
It just seems to have accelerated in the twenty first century.
And part of the problem is that the Constitution a number of years ago it gave the single house of their Congress the power to impeach the president pretty much for any reason they decide, and that has destabilized the kind of the checks and balances. So actually they have another constitutional amendment that is going to change that this year, where in addition to the Chamber of Deputies the lower house, they'll have a Senate again, so there'll be more balanced
between the Parliament, if you will, and the president. So maybe this parade of impeachments will stop.
More on the American model. I hope.
Well, our paradive impeachment will pick up again if the House flips in November, but it won't throw a President Trump out office. Philip, I want to remind everyone the Global Post which has wonderful illustration available for free to any student or teacher in the United States. Okay, you just go to GlobalPost dot com and find it on the tool bar.
But the subscription if.
You want to pay for it and get it as a newsletter, half off if you use the code Hugh h And I want to declare again I am not They're not a sponsor. I make no money off of this. I just have Philip on because I believe one place fair and balanced. I don't even know how you collect your news, Philip. How many people work on this?
We have about fifteen people and we research constantly. Like the Elite story today is usually prepared maybe two weeks, begins two weeks in advance, but goes right up until publication date. So I was able to send it to you yesterday. So basically we finished our research yesterday.
So I want to stress.
Everyone needs to know something about the world, like I would bet there's this big meeting in Islama Abaud this week, and I've been talking about it all day, Philip, I doubt anyone can find Islama about in a map in the average sixth grade, although we used to take geography. By the way, do you get feedback from the teachers use this? We got one minute left.
We do, we do, and we please know. We just expanded the program to middle school students because of a request by a teacher. As a matter of fact, So middle school, high school, and college all eligible.
For the free subscription.
And if somebody who signs up with your code you they just need to look for the promotion thing to where they entwer Huge.
That's where they do it.
And so that was a generous offer by phil I said, let's talk about it and tell people about it. But you ought to be as smart The New York Times, Wall Street Journal. They just don't cover the world like.
They used to. But the Global Post does.
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