The Gustonomics Pod-in-Review
In this final episode before an indefinite hiatus, Liz and Caleb revisit some of the topics from past episodes.
Nov 06, 2024•21 min•Ep. 44
The Gustonomics Podcast
Join Gusto’s Lead Economist, Liz Wilke, as she charts the economic landscape for busy owners of 21st-century businesses. In each 10-minute episode, Liz discusses economic concepts and trends for entrepreneurs who want to make smarter business decisions in a changing world.
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Episodes
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Tax Credits
Tax credits are a popular tool of policymakers to influence the behavior of people and businesses. But they don’t come without tradeoffs or cumbersome rules to follow. Caleb and Liz discuss. Shownotes Are Today’s Tax Credits the Best Way to Get Americans to Buy E.V.s? [NYT]
Oct 23, 2024•21 min•Ep. 43
The Fix Is In: Monopolies and Anti-Competition
In the midst of a surge of antitrust lawsuits from the last several years, Caleb and Liz break down monopolies, anti-competitive behavior, and what it means for small businesses. Shownotes Google, Visa, JetBlue: A Guide to a New Era of U.S. Antitrust Cases [NYT] ‘Google Is a Monopolist,’ Judge Rules in Landmark Antitrust Case [NYT] After Google Antitrust Ruling, Here’s Where Other Big Tech Cases Stand [NYT] U.S. Prepares to Challenge Google’s Online Ad Dominance [NYT]...
Oct 09, 2024•32 min•Ep. 42
Does Price Gouging Cause Inflation?
Who or what caused the jump in inflation from the past few years? There is no shortage of alleged culprits, and one popular theory is that it’s been driven by exploitative prices at the grocery store (aka, price gouging). Caleb and Liz discuss the role of price gouging, and how much blame (or not) it deserves. Shownotes Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries [KC Fed] Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to...
Sep 25, 2024•25 min•Ep. 41
The Comeback of Tariffs
For decades, free trade had been touted by business leaders, economists, and policy makers as the best way for countries to exchange goods and services. But that’s all changed in the last several years, as tariffs have re-entered the conversation as an effective tool to protect American businesses. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend, what it means for small businesses, and where things go from here. Shownotes Jobs Report Revisions, Explained [Gustonomics Podcast] Current Employment Statistics - CES...
Sep 11, 2024•29 min•Ep. 40
Food and Energy Don’t Count (for Core CPI)
Two of the most critical categories of goods for consumers—food and energy—aren’t considered for one of the most critical measures of inflation, Core CPI. Why is that? Caleb asks the questions, Liz has the answers. Shownotes Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from July 2023 to July 2024 [BLS] Consumer Price Index News Release [BLS] Real Earnings Summary [BLS] Real Earnings News Release [BLS] Consumer Price Index [BLS]...
Aug 28, 2024•25 min•Ep. 39
The ‘Dad Bod’ Jobs Report, Pricey Homeowners Insurance
Caleb and Liz discuss the most recent jobs report that shows a little softness, as well as the increasing cost of homeowners insurance and how that will ripple through the economy. Shownotes Employment Situation Summary [BLS] Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [BLS] US home insurers suffer worst loss this century [FT, sub required] Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [NOAA]...
Aug 14, 2024•23 min•Ep. 38
Q2 GDP Overachieves
Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses. Shownotes Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA] Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]...
Jul 31, 2024•19 min•Ep. 37
401(k) Mandates, Coming to a Business Near You
It’s an unfortunate reality that many Americans have insufficient savings in their retirement accounts, if they have access to one at all. In an effort to give Americans a better chance to save, many states have turned to state-sponsored retirement plans. Many of these plans either require businesses with as few as a single employee to either offer a retirement plan, like a 401(k), or enroll that employee into the state’s plan. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend.
Jul 17, 2024•24 min•Ep. 36
Gustonomics 101: What Is the Sahm Rule?
Perhaps the best indicator of a recession is known as the Sahm Rule. But it’s little known outside the economics world. So what is it and how can regular everyday businesses make use of this esoteric economic indicator? Caleb and Liz talk it out. Shownotes Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [FRED] The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate [Chicago Fed] Full Employment [Econ Focus/Richmond Fed] Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [FRED] The Sahm rule: step by step [Stay-at-Home Macro]...
Jul 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 35
Good Economy, Bad Vibes
The economy has been incredibly resilient in the wake of the pandemic, strong even. Yet survey after survey continues to show that many people don’t share that perspective. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss this phenomenon, the contradictions within it, and how we can separate reality from all the noise. Shownotes Anger about the economy is everywhere [Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)]
Jun 19, 2024•19 min•Ep. 34
Jobs Report Revisions, Explained
Revisions to economic data are crucial so users of that data have the most accurate and current information possible. Still, recent revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s monthly job report have been larger than some observers would like. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend and how we can think about them in the broader business climate. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]
Jun 05, 2024•21 min•Ep. 33
The Sky Still Isn’t Falling
The economy continues to defy expectations, remaining strong in many fundamental areas despite many warnings of tough times ahead. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the latest jobs report, inflation, interest rates, and the other factors that are keeping the economy in fine shape. Shownotes The Employment Situation [BLS]
May 22, 2024•20 min•Ep. 32
Baby Boomers Were Job Hoppers, Too
There’s a widespread belief that Millennials are fickle job-hoppers. And while that may be true, particularly early in their careers, data shows that they’ve been about as likely to change jobs as Baby Boomers were at the same age. Caleb and Liz discuss the trends, possible explanations, and what employers should think about when it comes to hiring and employee retention. Shownotes National Longitudinal Surveys [BLS] Boomers data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsoy.nr0.htm Millennials data: ...
May 08, 2024•23 min•Ep. 31
Let the Good Entrepreneurship Times Roll
Gusto’s third annual New Business Formation report found that the entrepreneurship surge that began during the COVID-19 pandemic continued in 2023. Caleb and Liz discuss some of the report’s key findings, including the impact of artificial intelligence and remote/hybrid work. Shownotes 2024 New Business Formation Report [Gusto]
Apr 24, 2024•18 min•Ep. 30
Putting Housing in Order with Orphe Divounguy of Zillow
Housing is one of the hottest topics in economics right now, and it’s no wonder. It reaches all corners of the country, and countless small businesses are impacted by its effects. In this episode, Liz welcomes one the foremost minds on the subject: Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow. Shownotes Orphe Divounguy [Zillow] Orphe Divounguy [LinkedIn] Everyday Economics [Apple Podcasts]...
Apr 10, 2024•36 min•Ep. 29
Workers Want Some Distance From Work
A recent analysis of Gusto data by researchers from Stanford University, ITAM, the Hoover Institution and the Gustonomics team found that Americans are living farther away from their employers. Caleb and Liz discuss the findings, what they indicate, and the current state of the remote/hybrid work evolution in America. Shownotes Americans Now Live Farther From Their Employers [Gusto Blog] Americans Now Live Farther from Their Employers [Gusto, Stanford, ITAM, Hoover Institution]...
Mar 27, 2024•17 min•Ep. 28
The Wait and See Economy
New reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—JOLTS and The Employment Situation—show that the economy is….fine. Not bad, but also not great. Employers and workers are both biding their time, an economic phenomenon that Liz has coined as The Great Wait. Shownotes JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JANUARY 2024 [BLS] THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2024 [BLS]...
Mar 13, 2024•14 min•Ep. 27
The Economics of Tying the Knot (or Not)
There’s been a lot of discussion around marriage in economic circles lately, so Liz and Caleb take up the topic in this episode, putting into perspective for small business owners and entrepreneurs.
Feb 28, 2024•10 min•Ep. 26
Gustonomics 101: What Is JOLTS?
Like all fields, economics has a language all its own, and more than its fair share of acronyms. In this bonus episode, Liz explains one of those acronyms--JOLTS--that was in the news lately, what you should know about it, and how it's relevant to business owners.
Feb 21, 2024•5 min•Ep. 25
Think Twice Before Taking That Fancy AI Job
Interest and investment in generative AI are booming, and many people are eager to find a job in this new darling of the tech sector. But not so fast, says Liz. She and Caleb discuss a new paper that should give anyone pursuing a career in an emerging technology pause about its long-term impact. Shownotes Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation [NBER]
Feb 14, 2024•17 min•Ep. 24
Wage Info in Job Postings Ain’t Great
Pay transparency has emerged in small pockets across the country, but it’s far from the norm, and when it does show up, it’s not always easy to interpret. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the quality of wage information in job postings, why it leaves a lot to be desired, and how both employers and job seekers can make the best of it. Shownotes Pay Transparency Is Anything But Clear [Gustonomics Podcast] Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information [The Federal Reserve Bank of Minn...
Jan 31, 2024•19 min•Ep. 23
Startup Economics with Alex Wilhelm of TechCrunch
The Gustonomics Podcast kicks off 2024 with its first guest—Alex Wilhelm, the Editor-in-Chief of TechCrunch+ and the co-host of the Equity podcast. Alex and Liz discuss interest rates and their impact on startup financing, why the businesses being started now are so exciting, and what economic policies they would prioritize if they were in charge. Shownotes There was a lot of startup and econ jargon in this episode that didn't always get fully explained, so here are some useful links: Runway BPS...
Jan 17, 2024•29 min•Ep. 22
Ebenezer Scrooge and Milton Friedman walk into a bar…
In the spirit of the season, Liz Wilke looks at an infamous economic paper—The Deadweight Loss of Christmas—that validates all the humbug feelings out there.
Dec 20, 2023•9 min•Ep. 21
Bad Credit? No Problem! (For Now)
Recent headlines have called attention to the rapid rise in credit delinquency rates, which some commentators have suggested is a sign that a credit bubble has popped. Liz explains why all that doomsday talk is overblown. Shownotes Credit Card Delinquencies Are Rising. It Isn’t a Problem for Banks—Yet. [ Barron’s ] Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks [ FRED ] Credit Card Delinquencies Continue to Rise—Who Is Missing Payments? [ NY FED ] The October 2023 Senior Loan Office...
Dec 13, 2023•11 min•Ep. 20
Does Consumer Confidence Matter?
If confidence and sentiment were candy and consumer spending, wouldn’t it be a Merry Christmas? Unfortunately, using consumer feelings to predict consumer behavior has long vexed economists everywhere. Liz Wilke explains how to think about a long cherished holiday tradition—consumer confidence.
Dec 06, 2023•9 min•Ep. 19
Small Business and Big Business: Best Frenemies Forever
Talk to any small business owner and they’ll likely have choice words about their big business rivals. They suck up all the talent, they have all the influence, they make all the money, etc. Less talked about is how big businesses help create fertile ecosystems for entrepreneurship. In fact, they may be essential for starting the next generation of successful big businesses. Liz Wilke explains.
Nov 29, 2023•11 min•Ep. 18
The US Workforce Is Going Gray, and That’s OK
The US workforce is getting a little long in the tooth, but there’s a lot that we can like about that. Liz explains what an aging workforce means for businesses and the broader economy. Show notes Why labor shortages aren’t going anywhere [Marketplace] Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey [Bureau of Labor Statistics] More than 1 in 10 people in Japan are aged 80 or over. Here's how its ageing population is reshaping the country [World Economic Forum] ‘Massive shift’: Older p...
Nov 15, 2023•13 min•Ep. 17
The Steady Fed
The Federal Reserve declined to raise its benchmark interest rate in its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Liz Wilke breaks it all down.
Nov 08, 2023•7 min•Ep. 16
Economic Growth Continues to Pleasantly Surprise
The economy’s performance between July and September shocked observers. Liz breaks down the latest GDP numbers, and what to expect for future growth.
Nov 01, 2023•9 min•Ep. 15
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