The Israel-Iran war continues to broaden: what comes next?

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This is The Globalist broadcasting to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. On the show ahead, missiles and mediation. Can backroom brokers cool the heat between Iran and Israel? Then... All of us around this table are reinforcing our militaries and security services for the new world. That's Mark Carney. He's currently hosting the G7. We'll bring you the latest from the summit in Alberta. Tokyo gets hot under the collar in a bid to boost voter turnout.

via saunas. We'll head to Abu Dhabi, where our urbanism teams just touched down for an infrastructure summit. And then... Commercial space is all about data. How do we understand our planet better? We explore the small satellite market on the sidelines of the ongoing Paris Airshow. We'll be in Singapore, where our Asia editor is taking the temperature of Southeast Asia's sharpest city-state. That's all ahead here on The Globalist.

Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Israel and Iran have continued heavy airstrikes for a fifth day, with Israel hitting key Iranian sites and the US mourning civilians to leave Tehran. The UK and the US have reached a partial trade agreement to lower some tariffs, though talks over steel and aluminium are still ongoing.

And one of the world's busiest shopping destinations, Oxford Street in London, is to be partly close to traffic as part of plans to rejuvenate the area and boost tourism and economic growth.

Do stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. Now, as we've just heard, the situation between Israel and Iran looks increasingly intractable. But as hawkish rhetoric and the violence continue between both countries, could there yet be a diplomatic solution? The IAEA and the E3, that's France, Germany and the UK, have issued a rare joint warning after an extraordinary meeting in Vienna, stressing that if diplomacy is to stand a chance, escalation needs to be...

contained fast. Israel's military campaign appears to be intensifying, while Iran's nuclear infrastructure, though still intact for the time being, now faces serious risk of radiological release. So what is the endgame here? Monocle contributor and journalist for El Arabiya, Inzamam Rashid, joins me now from Abu Dhabi. And in the studio here with me at Midori House is Dr. Marion Messmer, Senior Research Fellow in International Security.

at Chatham House. Inzimam, I wonder if you could start by bringing us up to date on the situation overnight between Israel and Iran. What's been hit and how is each side framing these attacks? Yeah, good morning, Georgina. I'm actually speaking to you from Abu Dhabi and aptly the R1 Gargesh Diplomatic Academy as the Global South Economic Forum is underway.

here as i say quite aptly and very soon we'll be hearing from the former deputy foreign minister of iran so so what happened last night well the attacks continued we've saw we've seen pictures over Israel and across Iran of rocket fire continuing to to to to fly over both of those countries the iron dome in action across israel and um and stopping a lot of those iranian missiles hitting the ground the death toll continues to rise

well significantly in iran the authorities they're reporting that that has exceeded around 230 and in israel they're saying that just under 30 people have died as a result of strikes across um the two nations now the israeli military says that iran fired more missiles towards israel overnight and that its forces were working to intercept those projectiles and that announcement had come just very shortly after the military said that it shot down.

30 drones that were launched towards Israel overnight. And in response, Israel say that they've fired a barrage of missiles towards Iran as well. We saw yesterday that an Israeli airstrike had also hit Iran's state television in Tehran, which killed three people. That's according to the broadcaster. So those missiles continue to fly over those two nations and many being hit inside Iran.

and the Iron Dome and other defence mechanisms in Israel are stopping the Iranian missiles hitting the ground in Israel. Marion, if we come to you now, Donald Trump has just issued this warning telling people to get out of Tehran. Now, last time he gave a warning. about the region that was just before the Israeli strike. So do we imagine that that means there is about to be a huge hit on Tehran? And will the US join in?

It's hard to say what the US is going to do, but that is, of course, a lot of people's worries. And it seems that his warning has caused quite a lot of panic in Iran because he left the G7 summit somewhat abruptly, citing the... hostilities in the Middle East as a reason as for why he needed to get back to Washington. He convened the National Security Council.

all of which could, of course, just be to get a better assessment of what's happening on the ground, but it could also be preparations for imminent U.S. involvement. It seems clear that he wants to be in charge of what the outcome is. He was very proud of the diplomatic talks that the US was conducting with Iran. And so my big hope is that this might be the US, or probably specifically President Trump, inserting himself as a... sort of mediator but the outcome of that is of course very unknown

He's still saying that there is no future for any kind of nuclear program in Iran. The Iranian nuclear program has, of course, been severely damaged by Israeli attacks. But Iran will likely want to continue with its nuclear power. which... At least when Iran and the U.S. previously were negotiating, the U.S. position was still that Iran shouldn't have any kind of nuclear program, which I believe is also the Israeli position. So it seems like despite the hostility.

over the last few days despite the many deaths and all of the destruction. The positions haven't really changed all that much. And that suggests to me that Iran would only really be able to agree to any diplomatic solution if it feels that it is indeed the much weaker party in a military conflict.

Well, let's talk about those diplomatic solutions, because the United Arab Emirates approach to diplomacy and how to deal with all of this stands out from others in the region. How so? Well, look, the UAE is quite uniquely positioned when it comes to this particular conflict because they're one of the few nations maintaining diplomatic ties with both Israel.

and iran and when it has come to israel and gaza the uae yes has come out to condemn israel's attack on gaza as they did this time around with iran um however it does seem to sit on the fence most of the times. But there seems this time from people that I've been speaking to, sources within the UAE government and the foreign affairs ministry, is that there seems to be a back-channel diplomacy underway here in Abu Dhabi as officials work.

quite discreetly to keep communication lines open and to prevent an escalation. So yesterday, the UAE president held urgent calls with world leaders, including those in Washington, Riyadh, in Doha. He also spoke with with the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well. And those lines of communications are ongoing, but away from the public facing, you know, press releases that come out about these conversations that the UAE is having with world leaders.

There is this ongoing back-channel diplomacy that is taking place in order to de-escalate and to speak both with the Israelis and the Iranians to make sure that this conflict doesn't escalate. And essentially...

impact the wider Middle East, which would include the UAE and the other GCC countries. Now, Marion, I just mentioned that report by the IAEA and the E3. How real is the risk of radiological fallout? if the conflict drags on and this diplomacy by the United Arab Emirates and others does not work. It's a really real risk. I mean, Israel has already directly targeted the enrichment facilities that Iran has, having done damage to them.

The IAEA has said they're monitoring the situation and so far the damage has been to electricity supplies, which listeners might of course remember from when we've talked about the risks to Ukraine's nuclear power plants is always a big risk because...

because enriched materials can get quite hot and always have to be cooled. So at least for the time being, there has been no radiological release in the area. But if Israel continues to strike, if it... if it uses... bombs with bigger explosive power, or indeed if the war sort of escalates further and also might get near Iran's nuclear power plants or might get near any of the nuclear research reactors that Iran has, then...

there's also this risk of an unintended escalation where essentially, you know, Israel may not have tried to target any of these other nuclear installations, but they were just in the way, essentially. And then you might have a radiation release on that basis. And that could, of course, be disastrous for the whole region because radiation just spreads, gets picked up by the wind and can then cross borders and so on. And of course, if radiation is released because of an explosion, then... the...

the blast of the explosion sort of carries the radiation and spreads the radiation in itself. So that's something that the IAEA has been warning about really intensely. And Rafael Grossi, the director general, has been working ever since 2022 to try and get different nations to adopt more stringent protection measures for nuclear power plants and other civilian nuclear installations in crisis. essentially because of this risk but unfortunately as we see

Now, in this situation, the risk essentially is still there and nations aren't necessarily restrained in how they use force around these facilities. And of course, other risks in Zaman is to do with the economy. of the region, the energy markets, the infrastructure. We're also looking at the global supply chain. The Straits of Hormuz is clearly key in all of this. Can you tell us more about the risk to the economy and to that global shipping channel?

Yeah, look, I mean, this matters not only to the Gulf, but globally as well. We know that this region is deeply entangled in global systems. I mean, you could even just... Talk about military, Qatar hosts the largest American military base in the Middle East. There are thousands of US troops stationed in and around Abu Dhabi, UK troops as well. And then there are key economic pillars like Emirates, Airlines. Etihad Airlines where we've seen huge impact.

to uh to the aviation sector as a result of what's going on the dubai property market even sovereign wealth funds here rely on stability but yes there is a wider global impact as well when it comes to trade when it comes to things just basically having to halt as a result of the ongoing conflict and the knock-on effects, which we've seen in the past from other conflicts as well, can be hugely severe and it takes a lot of time to get things back.

onto track as well. So that's why this whole notion of de-escalation, particularly from the Gulf, particularly from the UAE, is at the top of the agenda right now. And Marion, very briefly, do you expect diplomacy to prevail? I'm really hopeful just for the sake of the region and for the sake of all the people who live there. But unfortunately...

Given how we've seen the negotiations between the US and Iran go previously, and given how intent Israel seems on using this opportunity to do severe damage to the Iranian government, I worry that other incentives might be stronger. Thank you. So that was Dr. Marion Messmer here at Midori House and Inzamam Rashid in Abu Dhabi. And you can read more on the UAE's role as a potential peacemaker in the conflict between Iran and Israel on monocle.com. This is The Globalist.

It's 7.14 here in London and 14 minutes past midnight in Kananaskis. Donald Trump arrived in Canada for the G7 meeting. Now, the last time he was there for the same event in 2018, he had a spectacular falling out with the then Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, calling him very dishonest and weak.

He also refused to sign the final communique. Well, this time, Trudeau's successor and the host of the meeting in Alberta, Mark Carney, is taking no chances. He's dropped the idea of a final communique altogether. But trade tensions... are still running hot. Kani's decision to invite India's Narendra Modi is causing diplomatic discomfort. And the Israel-Iran crisis is hovering over every conversation. The big meeting between Kani and Trump took place yesterday afternoon.

So has Canada's new prime minister succeeded in steadying the ship? Or is Trump once again the gravitational force pulling the G7 off course? Well, I'm joined by Paul Waldy, who's European. correspondent at The Globe and Mail. Paul, many thanks for coming on the show. Let's start with that bilateral meeting. Trump and Carney sat down yesterday. What do we know about how it went?

Well, I mean, I think from Carney's perspective, it probably went not too badly. It was about 70 minutes and they came out of it sort of agreeing to reach some kind of a trade and security deal within 30 days. That puts a pretty quick timetable on it. And Carney has been reluctant so far to put any timeframe on negotiations. He sort of said, you know, they'll take as long as they take. So the fact that they did put a deadline on it.

means that maybe Canada's feeling more confident that some kind of an agreement will be made. But it's still hard to see that Trump is going to drop all of the tariffs he's slapped on Canada. To what extent did Iran and Israel dominate the discussion?

Well, I mean, clearly they dominated the discussions enough for Trump to leave early. He's on his way back to Washington to deal with the Middle East. We're not sure why. Now, of course, he didn't leave in a huff, as he did, as you mentioned, in 2018.

But nonetheless, he has left early and he has left early because of the Middle East. So that clearly must have dominated the discussions privately and publicly yesterday. Trump also revived the idea of Russia returning to the group and it becoming the G8 once again. Do you think he's trying to reshape or was he trying to reshape the summit in his own image and control the narrative? And if that is the case, how is that?

Did that sit with other delegates? I mean, was there anti-Trump sentiment expressed by any of the leaders? I don't think so, because I think Trump was asked, should Russia rejoin now? And he said, no, that wasn't going to happen. I think what he was doing is venting his usual kind of refrain that by excluding Russia, somehow that would have, that has caused Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I don't think very many people believe that. He even got it wrong.

in 2014 as to why Russia was kicked out of the G8 then, blaming Justin Trudeau for it, when in fact he wasn't even Prime Minister, Canada's Prime Minister at the time. So, you know, I think this is all part of his narrative that somehow... If the world had cozied up to Putin over the years, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wouldn't have happened. And really, no one around the table, I think, was agreeing with that or suggesting even remotely.

that Russia should rejoin the G7. Now, Kani invited a number of non-members, non-G7 members, to the summit, including Narendra Modi of India. Given the unresolved allegations of state-sanctioned killing... Is that helping Carney play statesman or is it exposing him diplomatically? It's been very contentious.

It's been very contentious because, of course, the allegation has been and it was made by Justin Trudeau in the House of Commons that Indian agents were behind the killing of a Sikh separatist activist in Vancouver, in the Vancouver area. I mean, that hasn't gone away. And Carney's trying to tread this fine line between, well, we need to keep relations with India open because we need the commercial ties. But the investigation into what happened continues.

That hasn't really worked, certainly not in the Sikh community, not amongst a lot of Canadians who suggest that, you know, this is a bit duplicitous to do this, but nonetheless. Modi will be there today. Also, the Mexican president is going to be there. And that could have been a really important time for her to meet with Trump and Carney because Carney has been pushing a reopening of the.

Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, which, of course, Trump negotiated in his first term and has now basically walked away from. So I think it'll be a shame that those three have not been able to meet because I think that would have maybe helped get the tariff issue resolved. Yeah, it's still going to be an interesting day I think with Modi there and with the Mexican president there.

And Zelensky, of course, and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, both of whom I'm quite sure are quite glad to avoid Donald Trump. I wonder if this lack of a final communique is actually helping to preserve unity, or is it perhaps an admission that can... Consensus amongst the G7 just isn't possible. Yeah, I think it's an admission that consensus isn't possible. And they're trying to really paper it over with this very watered down statement about the Israel-Iran conflict.

Yeah, I mean, I think they've come to realize, or certainly Carney's come to realize, trying to hammer out some kind of statement or agreement that everybody forgets about in a week. It doesn't really work anymore. You're right about Ukraine. Of course, Zelensky's going to be there, and Carney's...

going to make some kind of announcement about more aid to Ukraine as well. So clearly Zelensky will get a warm reception. But I think not having Trump there on Tuesday really will take a lot of the air out of the meeting and then certainly take away a lot of the media coverage.

I'm sure Carney and the others would rather Trump stuck around, but they're going to have to live with caring all about him. And just looking ahead to the NATO summit, are we seeing any signs that America's allies are increasingly working around Washington rather than with them?

Well, I don't know. I mean, you know, certainly that's another thing that has come up repeatedly with Carney and with Canada. Canada has not been anywhere near the NATO commitment of 2% of GDP spending on defense. Now, Carney has agreed to up that. to three percent whether he'll get to the five percent that nato is now talking about uh it remains to be seen but canada has been increasing its defense spending so have most of the other nato countries so in that sense i think

you know trump will view that as a bit of a victory that he has managed to get them all to increase their their spending and i think that'll go a long way towards making that meeting a lot more palatable because trump won't have that kind of club to beat them over the heads with anymore when they've all agreed to basically

hit the level that Trump wants, and that's 5%. Paul, thank you very much indeed. That's Paul Waldie there, Europe correspondent at The Globe and Mail. Now, still to come on the programme... We'll meet an aviation entrepreneur, part of the new space movement. This is The Globalist. Three components key to the craft of innovation at UBS. Because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work.

and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies, bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS. Banking is our craft. Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers. And joining me in the studio is Nina Dos Santos, international broadcast correspondent and a former CNN Europe editor. Nina, good morning to you. Good morning, Georgina. Of course, we've just been talking about the G7, lots of news lines.

coming out about that. But let's have a look at Russia here and the fact that Trump has hinted that there will be no more US sanctions on Russia. Yes, that's right. His argument here, Georgina, appears to be that he says it becomes increasingly costly. for the United States to implement sanctions. You wonder also whether this might have something to do with the fact that the oil prices obviously soared since Israel attacked Iran a few days ago and that has continued to give an uplift.

the oil prices and remember that the United States is now a big exporter of oil as well. And what the EU is trying to do is it's trying to advocate at this summit that countries in the G7 should agree to cap the price. that they buy oil from Russia at to about $45 from the current cap of $60. So the idea here is to starve those revenues and to make sure that Russia doesn't benefit from this upswing in the oil price. But Donald Trump...

Trump appears not to be willing to play ball. Now, this is important here because what he's saying is, well, let's see whether Europe does this first. Well, the EU every three months and the next vote is coming up soon has to keep reinvigorating the push.

the sanctions because they have to keep making sure that they are legally viable and have to vote for them at an EU level. And what you're starting to hear is we come up to the next vote in July and then another one in the autumn, which is when oil and gas contracts are traditionally...

negotiated is that you're hearing countries that are pro-Kremlin like Hungary and also Slovakia start also to prevaricate on the push for sanctions to try and starve off the money taps for Russia. I thought it was very interesting reading Donald Trump. on Vladimir Putin saying, I'm the only one that he talks to and he minds about it. He's very upset. It felt like he was going, you know, my friend says you won't be his friend.

I mean, you know, the boys club continues, right? It has always been so, hasn't it? At the top, you know, of world politics and particularly when you're dealing with world powers. And we know that Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and others who engage...

aged in combat in other parts of the world, including the Middle East, are increasingly quite keen to divide the world up into these spheres of influence. And that has a lot to do with economics as much as it does with territorial claims that obviously, in the case of you...

The EU does not recognise. The rest of the world doesn't recognise. And technically, the United States doesn't. But there has been no move thus far on this proposal of the 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, getting... Thank you.

in the world with this conflagration between Israel and Iran, and that may well distract people. That's the fear, presumably in Kiev and elsewhere. Absolutely. Now, when we were speaking to Paul Waldie on this earlier, he made the point that Trump had got it wrong on...

why Russia had been expelled. Yeah, I heard that. That was a very good interview. So, I mean, the point I'm trying to make here is you're only as good as your briefing, right? You've got to be briefed correctly. You've got to know what you're talking about. Unless you have no shame.

Well, there is that. But there's a spectacular example of this going very, very wrong here in Britain. It's really quite embarrassing. Tell us more. I'm so glad you mentioned this. This was my interview the day when I saw it pop up on my screen yesterday.

Emma Reynolds, who is... technically, to give her a proper job title, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury. So that means she's a minister for the Treasury, which is, you know, the most important department, apart from the Prime Minister's department in the UK, especially at the moment now when, since the Labour...

government took the helm only a year or so ago. It's made the economy, you know, its focus. You'd have thought she'd know her figures, but no, actually, she was wheeled out onto LBC's Nick Ferrari show. Now, remember, Nick Ferrari is very sort of... former tabloid journalist who has this show on LBC, you know, very well listened to a station that interviews politicians. And he's known for catching these people out. So you'd have thought she might have been prepared.

Well, no. Technically, she was there to talk about big infrastructure projects, how much they were costing and how much they would deliver for this country. Well, first of all, it started out when she couldn't remember the two places that a key cross... that's costing £10 billion going under the Thames would start from or end up at. He had to help her with that. It was, by the way, between Gravesend and Kent on the south side of the Thames all the way over to Tilbury, which is the main port.

where there are big docks over in Essex in the north. She couldn't remember how much it cost. Then she appeared to start reading from a piece of paper. And this really irritates me, and you must be used to this, Georgina, too, when politicians start to lose their way and just think, OK, I'll drag out the bit of boilerplate. And at one point, she then got distracted.

started talking about another crossing under the Thames, got the name of that one wrong as well. It's the Dartford Crossing, if anybody in London knows this and gets stuck in it under the Thames. vile, if you get stuck there for quite a while. She called it Dartmouth, which is a whole other part of the country. And then she refused to talk about another big bridge in London that's been closed for a long time, the Hammersmith Bridge. And at one point, the interviewer just said, is there any...

point in us actually interviewing you at all because you don't know your figures you don't know your facts and you don't even know your geography oh that is so embarrassing can we quickly celebrate another high-profile woman in britain who actually is doing something great

So I'm talking now about the new head of MI6. Her name was announced yesterday. We discussed it briefly. But now people who knew her, who clearly had no idea what she did for a living, are coming out and talking about it. There's quite a few of them. Blaze much earlier.

47 years old. Fantastic name. It is, isn't it? I mean, honestly, you couldn't have come up with a better one in James Bond. I think she's going to be called C, isn't she? If you have a name like that, just being reduced to the third letter in the alphabet.

Yeah, 47 years old, new head of MI6, the internal candidate. There's lots of people coming out saying, well, I was at university with her and I never realised she was a big spy. And the Daily Telegraph has a real front page piece from somebody who's in... part of a middle-aged Oxford and Cambridge rowing club that continues to row with her. And there are some great observations about this sort of statuesque blonde who nobody really realised was quite as important, as ambitious and as able.

in a very modest and secretive way, as you'd expect from the security services, to rise to the position of becoming the first leader, female leader, of MI6. So fabulous. Finally, I just can't resist this story.

It's too good. The Trump organisation... I find myself saying the words Trump and unbelievable in way too many sentences, but the Trump organisation has announced the launch of Trump Mobile. He's launching... his own gold mobile phone. Ah, yes, but I had a good look at this and it's not actually gold-plated, it's just gold-coloured. It is...

no pun intended, a brainchild of the Trump organisation, as you pointed out, run by one of the children of Donald Trump. So this is Donald Trump Jr. announcing Trump Mobile, a company that's going to be creating these mobile phones that are going to retail at... I think it's $499. So just shy of the $500. Quite reasonable if you think that, you know, an iPhone is upwards of a grand and a half. And they're gold-coloured. They're going to be prioritising US call centres, US manufacturers.

manufacturing centres. I think it's really quite interesting because he's more or less smashed Apple's iPhone model in one fell swoop with this, you know, these trade tariffs on China. Apple's now completely pivoted its whole business model.

start making them in places like India. Just two or three days ago, I was talking to somebody who was saying, do I want to buy an iPhone if it's not made in the same way? I probably won't. And then lo and behold, we now have a gold-plated phone, and apparently it's what every American wants.

I mean, you know, if you... Oxford Street is a couple of blocks away from where we are at the moment, the busiest shopping street in London, and tons of iPhones are stolen from that street. And they're not particularly conspicuous, an iPhone, but if you pulled out a Donald Trump...

old tone phone, it would be worth a third of the price or something and it would be pretty easy to spot. But you know, Nina, I mean, we laugh about this, but if this were happening in a third world country where the relatives of the leader... had smashed the business model of a really well-known company and then launched their own competitor, we would all be screaming about corruption. Or smashed the economics of the United States and the value of the US dollar and set up their own Bitcoin.

via, again, their children's, you know, business ventures. There's real concerns here about the level of conflicts of interest and the actual values of those conflicts of interest that surround not just Donald Trump. and his future generations, his progeny, but also Steve Witkoff, whose son is part of the Bitcoin ventures with the children of Donald Trump. It's interesting because obviously during the first term of Donald Trump, you know, you have...

had a lot of question marks over whether or not he, being such a prominent business person, would want to take advantage of his proximity to power to make money. He supposedly made a lot more efforts than now to put... his assets in blind trusts and so on and so forth. But now there appears to be absolutely no wish to bother to do that at all. Yeah, no shame. And there's real concerns. I was interviewing Edward Luce the other day from the Financial Times.

North America editor there, and he said this has a whiff of Caligula in it. He hasn't quite yet pointed his horse, Donald Trump that is, to his cabinet, but who knows, could come next, he said. Nina, thank you. That's Nina.

sent us there. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Israel and Iran have attacked each other for a fifth day in a row. The air war is the largest ever between the two countries. On Monday, Israel struck Iran's state broadcaster and uranium enrichment sites. US President Donald Trump has urged people in Tehran to leave the city. He says Iran is... rejecting a deal to limit its nuclear weapons program.

The UK and the US have agreed to lower some tariffs on British imports. Donald Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal at the G7 summit in Canada. It keeps quotas and tariffs on British cars and removes tariffs on the UK. UK aerospace sector, but disagreements over steel and aluminium remain.

And Oxford Street in London will soon be partly closed to traffic. The city's mayor, Sadiq Khan, says the pedestrianisation of a 1.6 kilometre stretch of the street will start as soon as possible. The move aims to attract... more tourists and boost the local economy. Oxford Street is one of the world's busiest shopping areas, drawing around half a million visitors each day. This is The Globalist. Stay tuned.

Time now for a look behind the headlines. Here, Fiona Wilson, Monocle's Tokyo bureau chief and senior Asia editor, tells us about Japan's innovative new campaign strategy. Only about a quarter of voters in their 20s cast a ballot in Tokyo city elections in 2021. So ahead of elections this Sunday, the city is cleaning up its act.

The Election Commission is working with Nifty Onsen, a website dedicated to Hot Springs, and the Tokyo Cento Association to boost turnout with an ad campaign inside bathhouses around the capital. Other tactics to prompt young voters include free election themed tissues and birthday cards for 18-year-olds to remind them of their newfound suffrage.

But it's the new baths popping up in places such as the fashionable district of Harajuku and architect-led renovations of older sento or public baths that are attracting a younger crowd. It's hoped that by splashing election posters around these hotspots, new voters will tap into the Bath's history as locations for political debate. They were once the place to chat through local issues.

And with everything from low birth rates to natural disasters on the electoral agenda, perhaps now is the time to let off some steam. That was Fiona Wilson, Monocle's Tokyo Bureau Chief and Senior Asia Editor. And for more from Monocle's editors and correspondents around the world, do sign up for our free daily newsletter, the Monocle Minute at monocle.com forward slash minute. Bye.

Now we're going back to Abu Dhabi because it is hosting its first infrastructure summit, focusing on how future cities can improve daily life. The summit showcases smart, sustainable infrastructure that supports better living, stronger economy. So, of course, Monocle's urbanist team is on the ground to find out what's shaping tomorrow's cities. So joining me now is Monocle Radio's executive producer, Carlotta Rubella. She is, of course, also the producer of the...

urbanist and an expert in that area. Carlotta, you've just arrived at the summit. So tell us more about this. What's the mood on the ground? What's catching your eyes so far? Hi Georgina, good morning from Abu Dhabi. It's been a busy couple of hours even though the summit officially only began half an hour ago. We got here maybe an hour or so ago, had some coffee and had a chance to walk around some of the...

booth. And as you were saying, this is the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, the inaugural conference. And the idea was really to bring to the city and to the Emirates global senior leaders in the infrastructure construction. and urbanism sectors. Now we know this is a part of the world where transformation happens rapidly when it comes to the urban environment. So it's going to be really curious to hear the vision that...

is going to be set out over the next two days. Now, you might be hearing in the background some of the music. When you think about Infrastructure Summit, you don't necessarily think you'll get the same vibe as in a sun lounge or in Ibiza.

But that is the vibe that they're going here, perhaps inspired by the 38 degrees that are outside. But let me tell you about the program, Georgina. Now, it started this morning, of course, with the opening ceremony and a welcome address by His Excellency Mohammed Ali. Now, he's the chairman of the Department of Municipalities and Transport of Abu Dhabi and the real vision behind today's summit. He is on a mission to, you know, increase quality of life in the city.

goes not just in terms of building better buildings, but also in terms of walkability and how people move around. Abu Dhabi, just on the way here, for example, we saw so many people actually on scooters and on bikes, on bike lanes, and that has changed.

that has happened over the past five years to a decade you wouldn't see that in the past so it really is part of this large-scale planning to deliver a city that puts quality of life at its center so I think we're set out to have a couple of exciting Carlotta, it sounds wonderful. I'm going to actually let you just go and get set up properly and just absorb what's going on there. I know that we'll be checking in with you and your colleague Andrew Tuck, our editor-in-chief.

a lot over the next few days. That's Carlotta Rebello there, and she is in Abu Dhabi at this infrastructure summit there. You're with Monocle Radio.

It's day two of the Paris Air Show at Le Bourget Airport. Our Paris bureau chief, Simon Bouvier, is on the ground covering the fair and has been speaking to aviation entrepreneurs with plans to bring the next big thing to the aerospace industry. In the first of a series of interviews, he spoke with Stanislav Maxime, the CEO of low-cost satellite launch startup Latitude. The company, based in the Champagne region, has ambitious plans to become the leading European commercial launch.

What are the trends that you're looking at commercially? There's this rise of, you know, AI and the use of data, of course, which... I'm guessing is leading for more demand on your end for people who want to collect that data in order to do something commercially viable with it. What are the main kind of points that you're thinking about?

You said it all, it's about data. Space only matters for two things, which is space exploration, which allows us to understand our universe better and make people dream. But this is not the main... the main market in the space industry and this is not what most startups are chasing after the main one is commercial space and commercial space is all about data how do we understand our planet better how do we build services like you know being able to track cars or contain

being able to detect tanks in Ukraine, how do we do all of that from a really commercial standpoint, a military standpoint, and an institutional standpoint. And so all of that is led basically by satellites and their payloads, basically the cameras or the antennas, what we call the payload that allows the data to be collected.

the growth that we've seen is in the last 15 years as many other objects and even 20 years we have seen a miniaturization of the electronics components which led of course to phones being possible more and more powerful but also satellites became more and more powerful which means also they became smaller and smaller they use more and more commercially available components which means that right now they cost way less than legacy satellites and we used to launch satellites that

weighed up to 8 tons, 10 tons into orbit and costs like 500 million with huge rockets. The thing is, these satellites were unattainable for... most people because you cannot launch a business and say I'm gonna raise like 10 billion to get a constellation doesn't it doesn't work so what happened is these new satellites the small satellites became way cheaper like less than

less than a million per satellite which means you can deploy a whole constellation like for 100 million you can have 100 satellites into space and operate worldwide which means new entrepreneurs came into the scene were able to raise money to do a lot of stuff in space and for space.

And what we are trying to do is basically launch them. So the trends we're seeing is a massive growth in the number of satellites that are being built and launched or need to be launched every year. If I give you an example for all the satellites that... are less than 200 kilograms in 2016 there were about 100 of them launched into orbit which is still a lot last year it was 800 so it is a massive growth in just about 10 years

And that growth will still keep coming. We're expecting more than 12,000 satellites. less than 200 kilograms to be launched more and more constellation more and more countries also that are seeing this as an opportunity to develop business in space and have their own sovereignty into space so it's all good business for us so what we're trying to do is

provide them with with a launch service that is adapted to adapted to them so very small launch vehicle we're able to launch about 200 kilograms into lower earth orbit and the cheapest in the world for a dedicated flight so if you want to buy a launcher It's the cheapest. You know who to call. You know who to call. Yeah, absolutely. Tell us about the kind of step-by-step process for you as a business.

How do, you know, somebody calls you, they say they want to launch a satellite. Do you build the rockets specifically to their needs or do you have a standard model? Where do you launch them from, etc.? Standard model, because it was... It is what allows us to do it very cheaply and still make a big profit. So every rocket's the same. What we change is where we go. Where we go, sorry.

and this will lead to where do we launch depending on the orbit the customer needs because you launch the satellite to a specific orbit you do not go to one point and then move it is very difficult to move in orbit not impossible but very difficult so we launch directly which means we need to have a spaceport

That allows us to go over there without, you know, flying above populated cities or war zones or important infrastructures. So we actually will launch from French Guiana, of course, which is one of the most. important spaceport in the world. and then we'll operate from new space ports to first of all have the launch rate necessary we need to launch 50 times a year minimum but also the orbits that we need to acquire that we need to be able to provide to our customers

So we plan to have a spaceport in northern Europe in another either Middle East or Oceania. Is it easy to set up a spaceport these days?

I'd say it's probably easier than 20 years ago, but it's still freaking hard because it's all about infrastructure that costs a lot. You need to build roads, and usually it's the roads and the concrete that costs the most, surprisingly. Because spaceports are a place... you know guiana is already set up so guiana has all the infrastructure necessary but when you go into let's say oman that's developing their own spaceport you'll literally have to build all the roads

that lead to the very isolated area you need to launch because you don't want to be around cities, of course. Then you need to bring the electricity, the water and all the infrastructure, which is pretty difficult, cost a lot. So we haven't seen the growth.

that was announced into the spaceports but we do see a lot of players that are actually very serious what's good about our business is we just need a concrete slab electricity and that's about it we bring everything else our own launch pad rocket facilities if needed so it's a bit easier than you know operating a Falcon 9.

That was the CEO and co-founder of Latitude, Stanislas Maxime, speaking to Monocle's Paris bureau chief, Simon Bouvier, at the Strategic Aerospace Seminar just before the start of the Paris Airshow. This is The Globalist. on Monaco Radio.

Time now is 7.44 here in London, and we are heading to Singapore to catch up with Monocle's Asia editor, James Chambers. James, I understand that you and Josh are there. I'm going to put quotation marks around this, a work trip, a research trip. But knowing you both, this is a bit of a jolly. Hi, Georgina. Not at all. You know what Monocle's like. I mean, we're up early doing meetings and up late researching bars. But as you said, Josh Fennett.

Josh, our editor, is over here from London. I mean, I'm usually based in Bangkok, but I've flown over here to meet him. And both of us are basically kind of... doing a bit of research, reconnecting with the city. We both have our connections with it in the past, but neither of us have been here since COVID. And the city has changed a lot in the last six or seven years. So it's been fascinating just to kind of...

reconnect with everyone and just get a feel for what's happening here. And, you know, it feels very, very buzzy, very, very dynamic. It does, doesn't it? I was there very recently and I was just really enthused by the energy of the city. What about hotels? Because I know you've been having a look at the hospitality sector. Well, I mean, right now I'm sat on the roof garden of the new Pan Pacific.

on Orchard Road. It was designed by Woha Architects, the big Singapore designers. So, you know, we're just about to have a tour of this hotel. It's a brand that I'm very interested in because it was huge. uh assuming a few decades ago you'd always feel see a pan pacific in in most asians

But it kind of disappeared. It went by for a while, but now it's making a big comeback. I know they've got one coming up in Bangkok. So we're meeting with them, seeing what's going on. We had a very fascinating tour.

uh this morning of uh new baru which is an old school which has been renovated and completely repurposed by the lo and behold group into this kind of mixed use retail development uh i'd super recommend it it's just they brought in some really great independent brands uh from around singapore uh and and brought them together they've done a great job it opened last year but

It's kind of opening in phases. And, you know, one year later, after we featured it in a magazine a year ago, it's still very much very vibrant, very happening. There's some cool... A whole mix of brands here. And I'd definitely put it on anyone's list. I don't know if you came here, Georgina, but it's definitely worth a visit. Absolutely. I tend to hang out a lot at the kind of the food markets, those hawker centres where the food is just insanely gorgeous.

We haven't hit a Hawker Centre yet. I mean, we've had some amazing... uh meals have just come up come from uh having a very very very amazing nazi lemak uh we haven't hit a hawker sentence uh yet but that'll definitely be on the cards but last night We did spend a great evening with Indra Cantono, who's the founder of Jigger and Pony. It's one of, I guess, voted one of the best bars in the world, but it's also a restaurant and bar group.

And Indra, you know, we ate at one of his seafood restaurants, Humpback, and then he took us on a bit of a bar hop around Singapore, around some of his spots. We ended up at Jigger and Pony, but I would definitely recommend Live Twice, which is a bit of a... a kind of a James Bond themed cocktail bar that he operates. So definitely a lot happening. And he had some interesting things to say. It's like quite contrarian. I mean, it was Monday night and everywhere was packed.

A lot of people drinking. So all this news about, you know, young people not wanting to go out and not going to spend and going to bed early. We didn't see any evidence of that last night in Singapore. And he definitely was saying that this. There's plenty of appetite for spending and drinking and buying cocktails. You just need to give people what they want. And Singapore...

Because customers are very knowledgeable, they're very demanding. And as long as, I guess, you tick those boxes, they will, you know. put their money in their pockets. Appetite for all manner of debauchment, not smoking. I felt like an absolute pariah when I was there. But James, tell us a little bit more about what you're hearing. What is really grabbing the attention of people?

on the street in Singapore right now? I mean, I guess the headline that everyone's telling us is just how expensive it is. I mean, you feel it, Georgina, when you visited. I certainly... feel it. And it has this reputation now as basically the Switzerland of Asia. And not just diplomatically, the way it kind of plays in international relations, but also because it is just so expensive.

And what the F&B operators, retailers, and especially the independents have been telling us is just the rents have just becoming insane.

uh and the types of things i'm hearing is very reminiscent of what used to be the case in hong kong you're basically damned if you if you've you're damned if you succeed because they'll up the rents and if you fail you're damned anyway and so it sounds like there's a real problem with landlords just hiking the rents every few years and it's driving you know these

great independent businesses to the wall and what's been great to see is there are so many talented creatives and independents in singapore which has always been you know what the what this city lacked now they have them it's almost like they're being priced out and some are looking elsewhere to places like

jakarta or bangkok where you can you know do more uh uh with with less money where rents are a lot cheaper so it does seem like that issue is coming is creeping up and up the agenda and i'm sure it won't be long until the government will have to look at it properly because you know it is very buzzing here but a lot of people are saying you know this has become

A huge, huge issue. And it seems like Singapore is at this inflection point where something needs to be done. Yeah. And James, just very quickly before you go, what's your sense politically there? Of course, it is right in the middle of what is now a very volatile region. Well, I mean, we've been discussing it, me and Josh, and it does, you know, Singapore always had this reputation for being a very safe place. But even like today, even more so, it feels like one of the safe.

havens in the world. I mean, I live in Thailand, so I thought I was in a pretty safe part of the world too. But over the last few weeks, the Thais and the Cambodians have developed their own little border. disagreement. And so who knows where that's heading. But Singapore seems to be one of those few places now where it's still very stable, very safe. And I feel like they're going to benefit from a commercial perspective, but also...

from tourism. If you're looking to travel to this part of the world or travel anywhere, I feel like Singapore is going to benefit from a lot of that anxiety that we're seeing around the world because of all these conflicts. So it does feel like a... one of those rare outposts where, you know, everyone's welcome and you can be guaranteed that you're not going to get into any trouble.

Yeah, James, thank you very much indeed. Can I wish you very good luck on your very onerous tour of duty sampling the bars and restaurants of Singapore? And that's James Chambers there. You're listening to The Globalist on Monocle Radio. Each of us has a craft, a calling that inspires us. Whether it's how a coffee is brewed, a chair is built, or how money is looked after. There's a love for the work.

care that compels you forward. For us at UBS, it's about designing a unique outcome for you. Because whatever your craft may be, ours is built around helping you succeed. UBS Banking. is Outcraft.

Next on The Globalist, we turn to architecture, as today is the day the winner of the prestigious Obel Award is announced. The annual prize honours recent and outstanding architectural contributions to human development all over the world. 100,000 euros, this is the world's largest architecture award in terms of prize money. Well, I'm delighted to say now that I'm joined now from Copenhagen by the director of the Obel Award, Jesper Eis Eriksson. Jesper, welcome to the show.

So tell us about the Obel Award and which works it seeks to recognise. Thank you so much and good morning. Yeah, the Obel Award is part of a larger initiative of the Obel Foundation. Our three purposes is the award that recognizes architecture's potential to drive tangible change, but we also have an educational component. in which we grant both student travel grants and teaching fellowships. And then our third purpose is everything else that sort of recognizes architecture's potential.

The way we work is that the theme is the core of what we do. Everything is discussion-based. We have a jury, a very, I would say, very courageous, very insightful jury. They discuss what is the key themes, what is needed to put focus on in this day and age. And once they've come up with a theme, that kind of trickles down to our other three purposes. So the winner of this year's award, which was announced only...

less than an hour ago, is House Europe under the theme of ready-made. Ready-made is a call to action and it's a way of putting focus on what's already there. I wonder if you could tell me why was House Europe chosen as this year's winner? Well, House Europe is a citizen-led initiative. Let's not forget that architects, too, are citizens.

What architects have is a unique insight in how the building industry, the construction industry, how our built environment works. And in an industry, I would say that that's... driven by greed, maybe rather than need, is important to look at the value of what's already there. You could say that... The initiative is showcasing how to catalyze systemic change. One of the interesting things that came up during the deliberation was that one of the jurors said, this shows that architects...

are not just the ones taking orders. They can also be the ones taking charge, leading a systemic change. Jesper, thank you very much. I'm afraid we've run out of time there, but it was lovely to speak to you. That was Jesper Ice-Erikson, the director of the Obel Award. Thanks for joining us here on The Globalist.

And that's all we have time for today. Thanks to our producers, Laura Kramer, Hassan Anderson and Anita Riota. Our researcher, Henry King, and our studio manager, Lily Austin, with editing assistance from Hunter Wang. After the headlines, there's more. music on the way and the briefing is live at midday in London. The Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.