From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm christinamio. It's Monday, September thirty. A hung parliament is looking more likely at the next election as Labour's approval rating slides in key states. New data from Newspoll shows the coalition is also struggling to drum up support. You can read our experts state by state analysis of those new numbers
right now at the Australian dot com dot au. Queensland's courts will narrow the scope of DNA testing in an attempt to clear a backlog of rape and murder cases. More than one hundred major crime cases are languishing in the forensic testing queue as the state run lab struggles to retest samples from the more than forty thousand cases
caught up in the nation's biggest ever DNA disaster. The Middle East is tittering on a knife's edge after Hesbal alider Hassan Nasrallah was killed by a targeted Israeli airstrike on Saturday. Now the world is waiting to see if Hesbela's powerful backup Iran will retaliate. That's today's episode. For days Now, cities and towns across Lebanon have been rocked
by explosions for days. Protesters in nearby Iran and Dyemen have rallied against the deadly Israeli air strikes, and now for three days from today, the streets will quiet, Flags around Lebanon will fly at half mast, and public buildings will close. On Monday morning, an official nationwide morning period will begin. Following the death of one of Lebanon's fiery and long standing political leaders.
HESBLA has confirmed its leader, hazard Nazrula, is dead. The Israeli Defense Force says it targeted at the nerve center of HESBLA headquarters in Beirut in a fresh wave of strikes.
Her son, Nozrala, was thirty two years old when he became Hesbeala's secretary General. He was appointed after his predecessor, Abbas al Maasawi was killed by Israeli forces in nineteen ninety two. In the subsequent three decades, Nzralla transformed the Shia Muslim group from a guerrilla militia to a political force known as the Party of God.
Akadmamulf Halayin was.
His singular focus was on the eradication of Israel and the United States from Lebanon, and his career has been
defined by conflict with his nation's southern neighbour. He's credited with ending eighteen years of Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon and was declared the winner of a thirty four day war with Israel in two thousand and six, despite the extensive damage inflicted upon Lebanese forces and infrastructure, and Hesbela has sporadically joined the assault on Israel following a deadly invasion by Hamas on October seven, launching thousands of missiles
across the border in a show of solidarity with the terrorist group. A charismatic leader and a shrewd strategist, Nozrella spent his final years as a recluse, broadcasting speeches and public addresses from secret locations out of fear he would be assassinated if he appeared in public. In his final broadcast on September nineteen, Nozrella condemned Israel's attack on pages and walkie talkies used by Hesbela fighters and vowed retaliation.
Mahamakan Wa La Kumana, the Al Kabila and Masa Lampustna Vale and Charlah helptl Aadu, the Jeshladum al ador.
I think this is an important victory for Israel. The sophistication and effectiveness of Israel's entire operation over this period has been extraordinary.
Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor.
They virtually destroyed the entirety of Hesbela's leadership, and it restores the mystique of Israeli power throughout the region, the sense that Israeli intelligence is unfathomable and unstoppable. And it doesn't mean the end of Hezbollah, but it's a tremendous blow to Hesbelah and a tremendous victory for Israel.
And what's the significance of this moment in the conflict in the Middle East? Is this a start of something bigger.
Israel has a lot.
Of strategic objectives in what it's doing at the moment. It's operating on many levels at once, but one of its objectives is to destroy the so called ring of fire that Iran has created around it with its many proxy horses. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Magaza. Strip Israel has destroyed Hamas as a military force, and it is tremendously degrading Hezbolah. That not only makes Israel more secure, but it reduces Iran's strategic power. So these
are very big changes in the regional power equations. They don't settle things for ever more, nothing ever does in the Middle East, but they're big changes in themselves.
Iran has backed Hesbela from the get go, training soldiers and funneling billions of dollars of funding to Lebanon. In a statement released by the Israeli Defense Force, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had settled the score with Hesbelah, and he issued a warning to Iran, saying nowhere was beyond the IDF's reach. The question now is if and how Iran retaliates for the death of one of its closest allies.
I don't expect Iran to do all that much, to be honest, for a couple of reasons. First of all, Iran has always been happy to fight to the last Palestinian, the last Lebanese, and the last Arab in its battles against Israel. It doesn't like fighting itself. And because really of the weakness of Joe Biden's administration in Washington, Iran has been able to deploy all these proxies in really
violent actions, and Iran hasn't paid any penalty at all. Now, if Iran takes military action against Israel, it's hard to know what that action would be, but the consequences for Iran would be horrendous. I mean, Israel is re establishing the credibility of its deterrance. Here. De terrance stops war. If you want peace, prepared for war, and if you are very well armed, people leave you alone. But for de terrance to work, it has to live actively in the minds of your enemies. And I think if Iran
attacks Israel right now, three things are likely. First, Israel will strike Iran, and it will do so very hard. Secondly, the first thing Israel will attack will be Around's nuclear facilities, so they'll be destroyed in a minute. And then thirdly, it's very likely that the Americans would get involved, and
this can work in a lot of different ways. The Americans certainly won't put boots on the ground to help the Israeli there's no chance of that, but they will help them in intercepting missiles that might come from Iran, and they may very well help them with direct strikes on Iran, and if push comes to shove, Biden will apply force. So put all that together, and there are a lot of arguments for Iran being pretty judicious and
cautious here blood curdling rhetoric. Anything can happen, but I'd be surprised if Iran initiated a major war anytime soon.
Coming up, what's Israel's next move? Subscribe us to the Australian. Get access to this kind of detailed analysis around the clock. Check us out at the Australian dot com and we'll be back after the break.
As long as Kizballah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their home safely. And that's exactly what we're doing.
This is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He's speaking at a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.
Ladies and gentlemen, Israel has made its choice. We seek to move forward to a bright age of prosperity and peace. Iran and its proxies have also made their choice. They want to move back to a dark age of terror and war. And now I have a question, and I pose that question to you, what choice will you make?
A day earlier, Netanyah who rejected a twenty one day cease fire deal proposed by France and the United States designed to prevent the Middle Eastern conflict from spiraling into an all out war, and within hours of that historic speech, he ordered the massive strike on Hesbeala's headquarters that killed Hassan Nazraalah. US President Joe Biden said Nasralla's death is a measure of justice for his many civilian victims, and said ultimately he hopes the conflict can be de escalated
through diplomatic endeavors. Biden's staunch support of Israel may explain the timing of Israel's assault on Lebanon. Here's Greg Sheridan.
Yes, so Biden is a mixed grill. Of course, Biden is a lifelong friend of Israel, and he's an old style democrat. I think he's a dithering, pretty hopeless president, but he lets the American system operate, and his instincts solidarity with American allies, of which Israel called is a top usli and also solidarity for Israel, solidarity for the only democracy in the Middle East. Kamala Harris has none
of that. She has none of Joe Biden's pro Israel outlook in her foreign policy makeup, in so far as she has any foreign policy views. Now, I think Israel is thinking in part that it wants to restructure the security environment around it. It wants to get rid of Iran's ring of fire, and it wants to change the equation for Iran in terms of cost benefit for any future conflict with Israel. And I'm sure it wants to
do all that while Biden is still president. But if it gets this all done while Biden is president, Harris has to support. She certainly cannot contradict Biden on a matter like this a minute before the election. So I think the Israelis would be happy to get all this done while Harris is still under Biden's discipline, and in the context of a very tight election campaign.
Israel is now fighting a war on two fronts, up north in Lebanon and down south in Gaza, and to date, ceasefire deals in either conflict have evaded negotiators. So are we getting any closer?
A lot of this ceasefire talk is blooney. Really, If Hummas had any concern for the suffering of the Palestinian people. It could have had a ceasefire any day at light over the last twelve months just by releasing the hostages, and Israel, under American guidance, offered pretty generous cease fires all the way through, so who knows how many hostages
are left alive. With Hezbola, you can't talk about a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon because the Lebanese government has no control, hardly has any influence over what Hezbola does. So Hezbolah would have to commit to not firing any more rockets at Israel again ever, or at least for a long time. And since October seven, Hesbela has fired
about nine thousand rocketshones and other projectiles at Israel. So Israel is not going to embark on an action of this magnitude and then stop after five minutes unless there's
a very comprehensive agreement from Hesbelo. It's not a ceasepire between two chess players and you're just asking them to accept an honorable draw here or Somethingsbelar is fired by a religious and cataclysmic ideology of hatred of Jews and hatred of Israel and hatred of the West, and until you get very big assurance and very credible assurance from
Hesbelas that it's finished with the attacks on Israel. That's not to say Israel will go on forever, but Israel will keep going until it feels it's achieved its military objectives.
Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor. This story is developing quickly. For all our latest reporting and analysis, go to the Australian dot com.
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