From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, February nineteen. Race for an April election. That's the call from our chief political correspondent. As householders and businesses react to the Reserve Bank's first cash rate decision of twenty twenty five, As widely predicted by economists, the Bank has cut the official cash rate by twenty five basis points today. Jeff Chambers on what to expect next.
The Board decided today to cut the cash rate by twenty five basis points to four point one percent. The cash rate has been at four point three five percent since November twenty twenty three.
There it is the announ the Federal government, and everyone with a mortgage or hoping to have one has been sweating. On Tuesday was the Reserve Bank Board's first meeting of twenty twenty five, and its decision will shape the future of all Australians, especially Anthony Albanezi and Peter Dutton. Ever since the COVID nineteen pandemic swept the world in twenty twenty and then the world slowly got out from under the Dona to survey the wreckage it's been quite the adventure.
The Reserve Bank has highing constraints for the first time in eleven and a half years, up zero point two five percent.
The new the.
Nation's cost of living crisis will get worse before it gets better.
This is the fastest trajectory in terms of interest rate increases since the early nineteen ninety.
More than one million ossies continue to suffer mortgage stress every single day man Ifair, another rate rise could send them to the war a twelve year high of four point three five percent.
I think that the government will definitely call an election in coming weeks.
Jeff Chambers is the Australian's chief political correspondent.
And I think there's two clear options now, which is April five and April twelve. Well, he was put to me in that last parliamentary sitting week that there was a less than ten percent chance of a March twenty five budget.
With a rate cut.
That means that they feel like they're some momentum and the way they're going to view it and frame it is that all that pain has peaked at a crescendo and now it's coming down. So I believe that in the coming couple of weeks or so towards the March eighth West Australia election, possibly the day after the WA election. It would be an interesting move if he were to go a week before, but we're talking about for an
April five or an April twelve election. He would have to go either in that last week of the WA election or he will go immediately after. And as everyone knows, that expectation is that Roger Cook will win comfortably in Western Australia, and no doubt Anthony Aberanezi would like to ride off the back of both a WA labor win and an RBA cut.
Every time Treasurer Jim Chalmers talks about the Reserve Bank, he calls it the Independent Reserve Bank. That's code for don't blame us for whatever they've done now. But that nuance is likely lost on mortgage holders and renters desperate for some relief.
I don't think that punters know the ins and outs of the RBA or what inflation means.
They just know from the bills that.
They're paying every week and the increases of their copying on everything that something's got to give. And this is the real danger zone for Anthony Alberanesi heading into a tid election campaign window where you've got this RBA meeting and then you've got one more where we'll hear the results of that on April fools Day, April one, and then that's it. You've only got two RBA meetings in this zone towards an election.
That has to be called by May seventeen.
Coming up. First term governments usually have good will behind them at the second election. It's the honeymoon effect. So where did Anthony Albanesi's momentum go? In twenty twenty two, when Anthony Albanzi was elected and got on the stage for his victory speech, inflation was already taking off like a rocket out of the COVID nineteen pandemic. But on that election night, the first thing he said was about
the Ularu statement from the heart. In hindsight, Jeff, did Albanesi lose an opportunity there?
I think that's well established with hindsight, looking back and knowing what we know now. Was an example of hubrious and overconfidence. After winning government with the lowest primary vote labor primary vote in almost one hundred years, and with a really slim.
Majority, it just didn't read the room of what was going on out in Australia and where things were going.
I think it was obvious even back then that the energy system and energy prices were teetering in a disastrous sort of area, that the Ukraine War was not going to end quickly, and then it would take years, not months, to bring inflation back into the target band of between two to three percent. These were all realities back then
and there should have been known entities. And for the Prime Minister or the government now suggests that maybe they didn't know that these things were coming down the line. I just don't think that's believable, and I think it's now fairly accepted that the Prime minister's decision to proceed with the voice referendum was the turning point in the government's standing and his own personal standings, just plunging into this potentially election losing territory.
In theory, Jeff, there's going to be a Jim Chalmers mini budget on March twenty five. Flights and rooms have been booked, but if an election is called, it won't go ahead. Obviously, if the government did delay that election call and hold the mini budget, what would we expect.
I think that they have provision for cost of living relief. We've seen a raft of announcements in recent times which are more focused towards voter cohorts, so cutting student debt, paying cash incentives for young tradey apprentices. But we're going to see from both Anthony Alberanez and Peter Dunton a raft of new cost of living policies, targeted temporary policies which they've held back, and they've held that back for
the campaign proper. You've got labor trying to cast off previous labor big spends and their management of the economy. They're under a lot of pressure about government spending and bureaucracies, but that pressure is just as much on Peter Dunton and Angus Taylor because we really haven't seen much in
the way of economic policy. They've made lots of promises around making the tax system fairer, driving efficiencies across the public service, but they also caveat that with we need to get in and we need to see the books to know how far we can go. So I think that is a challenge where Peter Dutton cannot just make big spending proposals and they still carry the baggage of
the COVID pandemic. Rightly or wrongly, the way Labor framed up the coalition was that they spent too much and the programs that were put in place weren't targeted enough. I think that's been proven to be false across most areas, because the evidence is that the Australian economy bounced back much faster and stronger than other Western economies. But of course, yeah, for both the Albanezi and Peter Dutton, the level of spending, the type of spending is going to come under enormous scrutiny.
And at the end of the day, for households and businesses, they want things that are tangible that are actually going to make a difference. And a lot of policies we're seeing, whether it's housing or cost of living, it doesn't really touch the sides. And I think is there that courage from either side of politics to really take on some bold economic reform, red tape reform, and I think that's where the rubber hits the road.
Jeff Chambers is The Australian's chief political correspondent. Jeff and our team in Canberra have all the scoops and the best analysis in the game. Join our subscribers to make sure you're always in the note at the Australian dot com dot au