Why voters worldwide are ditching incumbents and shifting to the right

era seems well and truly over. Last year, more than sixty countries went to the polls, and many countries saw voters swing to the right or voting against incumbent governments rather than necessarily voting in favor of the opposition. Peter Frankopan is an author and professor of global history at Oxford University and joined us on the Front Page last year to preview the year of elections. He joins us today on the Front Page to discuss the shifting sense

of global politics. Peter, I've seen some commentary around Justin Trudeau's resignation as being the latest casualty of the pronounced shift to the right taking place in many Western democracies. Do you think that's fair.

It didn't matter whether you were left or right. Voters felt that they're not being well served by the people who they put into put into office. So some of it, I think is about the big the bigger picture about what's actually going on. Is it that people don't like Trudeau? Is it that people don't like the right the left? Is it populism? And I guess one of the things that's really important is that we're living in an age of revolutions, but we're also in an age of transitions.

You know, whatever your political persuasions or views, you know, we've got obviously a major climate reorganization, these new technologies that you know, we don't quite know how they're going to change the world around us. We've got demographics that are changing quite quickly, a big shift of political and economic power, lots of states that are more ambitious than

they maybe used to be. And I guess in that sort of sense of uncertainty, you want someone who's going to set a course for you and has a vision that says, this is what's going on and this is what the future lies in store. And I think one of the challenges a lot of politicians have had is that they're not used to having to take that long term view. So I don't know whether you could use what's happening in Canada to judge these big shifts in different parts of the world, but I think that there's

you know, people are not very happy right now. You know, it's very hard to see a country anywhere on the planet where people are really pleased with their leadership. And that's not just in democracies too. But you know, it's all about fundamentals, and if you think that tomorrow is going to be better than today, you're much more forgiving. But I think in most parts of the world, people think that the world and tomorrow is going to be more scary and worse.

he became primes here in the UK twenty ten. And I think there was just a lot there was something in the air that people felt that it was really exciting that there were these new telephones we could all connect, you know, the idea that there were new ways that you could share information on Twitter. And now a lot of those things that we all thought were going to be exciting look like they're slightly poisonous or toxic, you know,

the social media. We sort of are aware that that's really bad for young people and their sort of interactions with each other, completely compulsive and in fact, just over the water from you guys, Australia banned social media for young people. The idea that we were going to have automation and robotics that will make our lives easier. People are now worrying about how they're actually going to pay their bills if we all get replaced by by robots.

But I think there was something about that first wave of a new, brave, new world that we sort of slightly got wrong, that we weren't all going to sit around the campfire and hold hands and sing songs and all get rich and old together. Suddenly the world looks a lot more dangerous. But I think there was a moment ten years ago of optimism, hope, and younger leaders who could sort of frame what they thought was going to happen. You know, Barack Obama was part of that

story too. Looking back on it, I wonder how many of those leaders we all thought look the part, and we could all imagine them dropping in for dinner with us and sharing a drink and having a good chat about lots of different things. How many of them were quite superficial and actually under delivered. I think that that's quite a long list. Macro probably is joining that club at the moment, as well as a lot of leaders

around the world. And there was something of the kind of of an excitement a decade ago that's not here Today.

and it sounds like it's action. One of the problems with populist is that they overpromise and then under deliver, you know, because these problems are complex and it's very hard to have a single solution. But you know, I think that that people have got frustrated with the lack of action, and you know, buy and large. What tends to happen as a historian, and I'm not here to

defend the far right far left. You know, obvious you probably could imagine when we met Chelsea pretty pretty centrist in wanting to hear lots of opinions and will split the difference down the middle, but buy in larger habits In history is populists who promise action and promise results

tend to make complicated issues worse rather than better. So you know, it's a real challenge for democracies that we find leaders who can actually make improvements and who actually understand how difficult the job is and can explain that and communicate it to voters. And you know, if you can do that, voters are not stupid. Often they're smarter than the politicians they put into office. But it require requires a special ability to be able to communicate and

to get people to trust you. And they'll trust you if they can see that you're working hard. They can trust you if they think that you are really getting stuck in. And one of the problems that people like Trudeau had was that, you know, if you get photographed dancing at a Taylor Swift concert while people worrying about about paying the bills, you know, it's not a great look. And if you lose you know, if you if you

lose that common touch, you lose the dressing room. And when that happens, you know you're you're looking for a new job.

But you do need to have quite good judgment. I mean that I think is the key to to you know, having a happy relationship at home, to being a parent, to being a child. So you know, we all have friends who've just got some of them got really good judgment, and unfortunately we've all got a few friends who've got really bad judgment. But you know, you want someone who's able to recognize that they sometimes have to change how

they're doing things. And you know, it's hard if you're if you're a celebrity and people are always either saying good things about your bad things about you, and it's it's it's hard to live your life where you're being judged all the time. But that's what happens when you work for the people who vote for you. And you know, I think it's a tricky one about how to get

it always right. But for sure, right now, with people worried about their paychecks, interest rates being high, the world becoming tougher, you know, we want to know that our leaders are working full time, flat out and taking it really seriously. You know, no one's stupid that you've got to have time to recharge your batteries, but probably it's a good idea to do that in private and ideally maybe not in the Maldives or somewhere where people know that you're going to be there, but just try and

get on with your private life. In private.

out after fourteen years. And in Australia as well. I know that Peter Dudden, one of the most unliked politicians, looks pretty primed to be winning in Australia this year, and now you're seeing a pretty mixed polling going back to the UK of Sir Keir Starmer and his government. Our deputy political editor at The Herald, Thomas Coglan put it this way last year, saying, it's.

And I think that's that's a tricky It's a very different thing being in opposition to being in power. And one of the problems about getting into office in democratic states is that quite often those in the most senior positions, not just the prime minister, hasn't got management experience, hasn't had training of how to run big offices and order the foreign section, all all ministers, and so suddenly you're

caught in the headlights. And then you've got civil servants who are telling you this is the way you should do things, and you need to have lots of briefings and be scared of your own shadow because the press are going to come after you. I think one of the challenges in a lot of democracies today is the lack of connection between the backbone and the brain. So there are lots of clever leaders around the world, and there are quite a few brave ones, but you need

both of those characteristics together to work in harmony. And I think one of the things that's been striking for sure in the UK is how nervous labor have been. And when you're sort of worrying about what's going to go wrong, then the new cycle comes for you and you get problems about who's paid for your glasses or

your suits, or which constantly be going to. But I think what all of us here have been waiting for the last six months is to really see the new government set out its stall of what it thinks its priorities are. Where where do they think that the UK

needs to be in twenty thirty five. I mean, as it happens, I was at a speech of David Lamio, Foreign Secretary in the UK, talking exactly in these terms, but that that's the first time I've heard him or a senior government minister here even kind of engage with that since since the election. And as that's very similar to Australia, very similar to New Zealand and plenty of

other countries too. I mean last year our French cousins across the water here from us in the UK, they managed to have four prime ministers, which it even beats the British record where we had three two years ago

with Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and Rishie Sunak. So, you know, I think that that turbulence at the top speaks to the fact that you know, there's a real sense of uncertainty and you're you know, you're worried about playing for your place and again, whatever sport you might like, you know, if you're nervous about being kicked out of the team, then then you never perform as well as if you if you know you're going to be in for a while, and you know that that's something that hasn't quite fired

here in the UK since the election.

New Jersey by five percentage points. I mean, that's fewer than he lost in Virginia four years ago.

we sometimes forget how recent full voting is. I mean, women weren't allowed to vote in the UK until after the First World War had ended. Women in France weren't allowed to go to work without written authority from their husbands until the nineteen sixties. So you know, the idea that that of equalities and of freedoms and are be able to choose your leaders. You know, you could take the view as a historian like I do that, it's

quite unusual and it's quite it's quite modern. I mean, what's interesting, I think is that there are countries where the right has been booted out, like in Poland, Centrist party ader Donald Tusk pushed out the far right, and the first thing that they've been trying, the first thing they did as when they got into power, was to say, look, judge us on what we do, and if we solve the kinds of problems about things like people worried about migration,

economic growth, pluralism, trying to tone down some of the more tricky and poisonous debates about identities and you know, and culture wars. Then if you can do that and have rational conversations for people you don't agree with, but to do so in a mature way, then then then the voters fall in behind you because they see what you're trying to do, and so that there are ways

that that can happen. But I mean, I don't think you need me to remind what happens when you get populism into power, and that starts with you know, obviously starts with Germany the nineteen thirties, but you know that's what the Russian Revolution did too. That's what happened with Mao as well in China. That's why we Paul Potts in Cambodia. You know, that's what happens with men is

in Ethiopia. And if you have strong men, and they typically are men who get into power, then you can you can you can persuade your followers to inflict terrible things on people who look different, worship in a different way, or who they're not part of your your plans. So, you know, I think we need to be care in

protecting freedoms and democracies. But you know, when you have the richest man in the world owning a major social media platform and trying to dislodge prime ministers and elected states, then you can see that the tools we've got, you know, we're like teenage we're like teenagers. We don't know what our limits are. And until those things get resolved, you know, then I think there's still more of this kind of uncertainty to come.

more important than what you look like. And I don't think the voters are that stupid that, you know, if Taylor Swift stands for office, or you know, take your pick of who you think is the best looking, most charming, you need to be able to back it up with results. And you know, if you can't do that, it doesn't matter how charming you are or otherwise. It's all about outcomes.

I mean, in fact, I had a charity dinner with Alistair Campbell, who does a very very successful podcast globally it's not just in the UK, called The Rest Is Politics, and you know he's been he was involved as Tony Bless sort of gatekeeper and media manager. And you know, one of the things that he was talking about is how important is to have an agenda that you set

out how you have to be brave. But you know, and if you don't do that then then then it's quite right that you lose your place in the queue. You know, these are these are tricky times. But the charm of a photogenic young leader. That's great as long as the photogenetic young leader delivers results. If they don't, then they're just a photogenet young leader.