Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The appearance of three Chinese warships so close to our borders has surprised and confused Australian and New Zealand officials. The ships issued a live fire warning off Australia's east coast, forcing commercial flights to change course. Then, on Saturday afternoon, sailors on a New Zealand Navy frigate saw live rounds
being fired from a Chinese vessel's main gun. Beijing's now under scrutiny for not warning Australia or New Zealand of drills being performed in the Tasman Sea. All this comes as tensions between New Zealand and our Pacific neighbors are at an all time high. Today on the Front Page, Waikato University's Algillespie updates us on what's going on on the first of Alexander. Can you tell us what's going on here?
Well?
A number of things have been happening, but the most recent one is that there's three Chinese naval vessels in Betasman conducting a operation which involves live firing and this is causing a considerable degree of discomfort on both sides of the Tasman Sea.
Prime Minister Christopher Lackson said that they're monitoring, shadowing and tracking the fleet, adding that China is acting in accordance with international law. Now what does that mean? What does the international law allow them.
To do so? The Law of the Sea nineteen eighties convention from the United Nations divides the ocean into the high seas, the Territorial Sea, which is of nautical miles, and themb Exclusive Economic Zone, which is two hundred pudical miles. If vessels are in the high Sea, they have a considerable amount of freedom to transit and operate as they see fit, provided that they're under a flag, of which
these Chinese vessels are. If they were in the Territorial Sea, they wouldn't be able to conduct war games as they're doing, but they're not, so what they're doing is completely legal and lawful. There are additional rules that prevent naval boats from opposing sides, bumping into each other and having accidents or miscalculation. And these rules apply to China just like they applied to New Zealand and Australia and the sharing of the information that the Chinese authorities have done so
far about the live firing. They are in full accordance with these rules.
What would them breaking international law look like? When should we start getting worried.
It would be a concern if they conducted military exercises and the exclusive economic zone, and especially in the territorial Sea, like if they got closer and closer to the shore. There are additional rules around submarines of which you should have certain notification if you've got opposing navies close to each other, or if our boats and their boats started to bump in to each other, or there were near misses or potential accidents, that's when you need to get
start concerned. And you've certainly seen this in the South China Sea where Australian Philippine or Philippine boats Filippino boats will bump into some of the Chinese boats and it's certainly a cause for tension, and there is a risk to security and not just to the aviators and the sea personnel if something goes wrong, and so we try to manage this, but that is not what's happened in Potasman Sea right now. It's quite calm and it's fully adderly.
Three Chinese warships have been quietly stalking Australia's eastern coast, but today their silent sale South ended. Nine News understands that about ten fifteen this morning, pilots from three commercial jets flying between Australia and New Zealand heard a broadcast from one of the warships warning of an emminent live fire exercise.
We are aware of this task group.
We are monitoring this task group very closely.
It is, as I.
Understand it, operating in international waters. They have no reason to do live firing exercises in the waters between New Zealand and Australia other than to demonstrate an aggressive, provocative set of behavior.
So is China required to say, give notice of a live firing so close to a commercial flight path or is that just considered good.
Manners to rule under the code that to prevent unexpected encounters. But they have done this, It would have been more positive if they had telegraphed this information in advance to the national authorities and not just to the civil aviators. And it would have been good faith to have not just told the embassies but also the extent of them, where they're going, why they're doing it, so that it could have been dealt with better than it's been dealt with, but certainly not illegal.
Our Defense Minister Judith Collins has said both US and Australia aren't worried.
Well, I think that they are very much like us. They're aware of the situation. I don't think that anyone's particularly worried. We're just aware that this is a new thing that we've seen, which is an incredibly capable task group coming down into an area where we haven't seen them before and where they've undertaken live firing with only a few hours notice.
Is that fair or should we be more worried?
In terms of what's going on in p Tasman, there's
absolutely no cause for concern. But where there is course for concern is when you see it in terms of a wider pattern, and that is not just dispute to the South China Sea, but also recent problems like that the Cook Islands which have changed our relationship significantly, or concerns that you might have had recently with the ES and the monitoring of Chinese populations in New Zealand by the PRC SO the overall relationship of which this current problem needs to be added to, adds to a greater
level of discomfort. And that's coming at a time when New Zealand is trying to find its place in the world, and especially with the new Trump administration.
Yeah, well you mentioned there. All of this is happening after the Cook Islands signed a memorandum of understanding with China, including a five year agreement for sea bed mining. Does that mean we'll be seeing a fair bit more of China in our end of the world.
It means you're going to see more Chinese influence in the Cook Islands. And you know, we need to be clear here. Influence isn't necessarily a bad thing if it's done for multilaterally agreed sustainable development and its humanitarian and its aid and it's not debt, and so that there is areas for cooperation. But what you're seeing increasingly is bilateral initiatives where New Zealand has been told this isn't your interest. You know, you shouldn't be involved in this area.
And that's a real concern because New Zealand's relationship with the Cooks is quite unique and we do have a concerned over security and sensitivities at the moment that need to be more respected than they were. And so to me, the concern is not just the sea bed mining or the infrastructure deals. It's the ongoing relationship and how these new deals may alter that and that will change the relationship with both the Cook Islands and New Zealand and China and New Zealand.
But we're seeing the live firings in the Tasman and in those plans for a significant strategic presence in the Cook Islands by China are all within the space of a few weeks. This can't be a coincidence, can it.
It's unlikely to be a coincidence. Often you will find that China will respond and it will speak out loudly or act in a particularly false full way when something happens which they aren't happy with. So in twenty twenty four, a New Zealand frigate and an Australian vessel went through the Taiwanese Straight and then within a few days we saw China test an intercontinental missile, which a dummy missile
which splashed down in the South Pacific. Coincidence may be more likely to be a message that we need to be careful what we're doing, and that the complacency that New Zealand has had for a long time is now questionable because the world is changing.
And it's true, isn't it that we don't know what those warships are doing. What could they be doing.
They're probably just practicing like our vessels practice, and that this is not normal or unusual. If there were submarines involved, it would raise our level of concern and in a good faith relationship if they are out there. China would say that these vessels are in the vicinity and the reasons you're concerned about those is that if our naval vessels stumbled over their, especially if they were submerged, it
just adds unnecessary extra tension. I don't see anything malicious or particularly dangerous with what they're doing on the high Sea. It would have been a better relationship if they had told us in advance, and if our relationships were freely we could even have invited them into port for a cup of tea. But we're not at that point where we were a few years ago.
Australia and China have had a salty relationship in recent years, and this incident hasn't really helped. Has Australia's Defense Minister, Richard Miles, said Beijing had failed to give satisfactory reasons for the inadequate notice given on Friday's live fire drill. And then on the other hand, China's Defense Ministry spokespersons said that Australia's complaints were hyped up and inconsistent with the facts. Now, where do these tensions leave New Zealand?
Do you think how do we stay on good terms with China without causing issues with Australia.
I think the reality of somewhere between the Chinese position and the Australian position and that there's a lot of tension and things could have been dealt with better in in a more open and transparent, in an advanced way. But what China is doing is not illegal if they operate on the high seas as they are. What it does for New Zealand, I think is bigger than the
current issue of what's going on in the Tasman. I think what you're going to see is that New Zealand, with the issues around the Cook Islands, with the issues of the malicious behavior, with concerns about the cybersecurity, into Parliament a few years ago. Is it pushes New Zealand away from an independent foreign policy, and historically, whenever there's been threats to the region, we go back closer to Australia,
closer to Britain, and closer to the United States. And all this is occurring at the time that we know that the military budgets will be increasing, we know that aucus is a possibility, and these actions push us towards those relationships, not further away. And so ironically, China may have just scored an own goal because they want New Zealand to be independent, but they're creating tensions which push us in the opposite direction.
Again, our issue is there's nothing illegal here in terms of they are compliant with international law. It's the same law that we rely upon as we move around the world. But the issue for us is we just think, you know, we'd appreciate a little bit more advanced notice, particularly on what is a busy air route, one of the busiest in the world, that we've actually got a bit more time to respond to that. Having said that, our civil aviation authorities are well used to this. They are in
a normal practice in the aviation and maritime world. They have been coordinating well across the Tasman and importantly, at no point have New Zealand or austral An assets been in any danger.
Is the balance of power changing in our region.
I think it's been changing for a considerable amount of years. It's only now it's very close to our shores. I mean it's literally in the Cook Island or it's literally has been see and these are things which are unprecedented for a very long time.
What happens from here our How does New Zealand toe the line of I guess being friendly without completely condoning this kind of behavior.
We should always be reaching out for areas of cooperation. We should always try to find an act in good faith. But at the same time we need to sober up with what the risks are and what is changing out in our environment, and so continue to find the areas where we can cooperate, where we can have peaceful coexistence. But realistically we need to be prepared to move closer
towards our traditional friends and allies in the region. And I think what you're likely to see is that the budget, the military budgets will increase, the spend will increase, and a deepening of our alliances which will be pivoted against those who are not traditional in the area, the geographical area.
And you brought up Orchus as well. Do you think incidents like this could sway public opinion when it comes to things like orcus. A few polls have shown more support for it than against. Could this push more people towards perhaps supporting joining Pillar two?
It's not going to lessen to support for it. And I think a number of people are now seeing not just the one threat and betasment, but but the collection of changing environment whereby our traditional interests are being undermined. And New Zella knows we are big enough or strong enough to support ourselves if times get hard. So we will follow that traditional pattern and we will go back towards Australia, we will go back towards Britain, and we
will go back towards the America. It's a difficult time and it's not necessarily desirable to be doing that, but people are scared of the alternative and they don't feel safe with a number of these actions going on. Even though they are legal, they are often threatening and they change the strategic environment.
Thanks for joining us, Alexander, You're welcome Charlson. That's it for this episode of the Front Page. Read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.