Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The political year is ready to kick off. While Prime Minister Christopher Luxon may have got an early start with his cabinet reshuffle. Over the next coming days, we'll see a flurry of party caucus retreats, State of the Nation's speeches, and the annual visit to Ratna as politicians return from
their summer holidays. And while central government has plenty to tend to this year, local politicians are preparing for the country to return to the polls in October to vote for our councils and mayor's we'll discuss that later with Newstalk zb News director Michael Sergel, but first on the Front Page, we're joined by news Talk ZEDB political editor
Jason Walls for a preview of the year. Head in politics. Jason, what are some of the key political events and bills that are on your calendar this year?
Yeah, I mean the first one. I mean, you can't really talk about twenty twenty five without talking about the Treaty Principal's Bill. So we're going to have about six months of Treaty Principles, Bill submissions before the Select Committee. So every single week we're going to be hearing from new people, new positions on a bill. And if you think this is finished just because it is being finished in the House, it's finished its first reading, you're solely mistaken.
This is going to be one of the stories of the year, and then it is going to be voted down in the second reading. So ultimately this will all come to nought. But it's going to be a fascinating look inside New Zealand politics and race relations in this country, So that would be one that I'd definitely be looking out for. Another one this year, Probably the headline event will be the transition of power from Winston Peters to David Seymour when it comes to the Deputy prime ministership.
It's going to be fascinating exercise because we've never seen anything like this before. We don't know whether we go back to Government House and watch them take a new oath or if it just happens at the stroke of midnight. We don't really know that. It's going to be an interesting one to watch. The budget every year is one
to watch. This is probably going to be the most boring budget we've had in a significant amount of time, because Nicola Willis has suggested, well not suggested, she's outright said that there is just no money in the kitty for any new initiatives. They've got a waifer thin operating allowance, which is essentially the amount of new money that they chuck on every budget, so don't expect anything too exciting.
Then we've also got to the return of Madame and Davidson, who has been away on sickly from Parliament after her cancer diagnosis and then she's been away for treatment, and how that impacts the Green Party and the fundament mental strategy that they have in the House and outside. And then of course the Prime Minister's Asia pivot. He's going to go to China this year, he's indicated as well as India. So quite a lot on the political agenda.
But the best thing about Paul politics is that we probably will mention these things only in passing at the end of the year, because there'll be other things that come up that we have no idea what they are or what they'll entail. That's the beauty of politics.
Prime Minister Chrisph Laxen faced criticism from all sides near the end of last year about his leadership and his approach with the media. I believe, Jason, you actually said that we saw an absolute abject disaster in his media performances. Do you think he's been dwelling on that over the summer?
Yes, I think. I say I used that phrase in reference to his interview with Jack Tame, rather than every single one of his media performances, and I think that one was an abject disaster just because he was unable to articulate his government's vision and position on a number of things and reverted back to talking points. I think he said the phrase what I'll say to you is twenty six times in one interview, so I think over
the summer he will be reflecting on that. He might have even done some media training over the summer break if he was smart. I think that's exactly what he needs to do. He needs to refocus and get off his talking point page and start talking like a real human being. And I think if he starts to do that, he'll start to bring the public along a lot better. On the leadership front. I think he's been doing fine so far. I mean, he's had to manage a coalition
as well, a coalition of three parties. That's never been done in New Zealand politics. It's just the media side of things. And if he nails that, if it even improves a little bit, I think it would be a good year for Christopher Luxon.
I what I say to you, Jay, You're saying a lot of things to me, but you're surely we actually answered to be honest, and this is actually kind of important to actually if you want to have a conversation about economics and the plan and what we're trying to do.
Do you think we'll see some changes in the coalition's dynamics after May thirty first, when David Seymour of course takes over as Deputy per I think.
There will be some cosmetic changes in terms of the way that things are going forward. For example, David Seymour will take over from the Prime Minister in the House when the Prime Minister is away, so that's pretty much
every Thursday. But that will be one of the main things because again going back to the Prime Minister's leadership, one of the things that he did well is he did a rock solid and air tight coalition agreement, which means that even if there is a change, which we're going to see that has been very well telegraphed from the beginning, and all of the policies, all of the
commitments remain the same, So cosmetic changes maybe. David Seymour and Winston Peters are both very outspoken, and I don't think that's going to change on either side when they essentially change roles here. But I wouldn't envisage it being too different than it has been the past year and a half.
Treasury opened up the country's books right before Christmas and it was a bit more Stephen King than Mills and Boone. Hey, with the economic outlook looking so grim, how do you think that will shape the government's priorities? Oh?
Excellent metaphor. By the way, there was a fantastical worded question. I love that one.
You could have laughed after I said, listen.
I'm here to talk politics, not laugh at your jokes. I think it makes me less professional if I laugh at a question. But in seriousness, I think that it's there's a lot that they probably want to do that they won't be able to do now. The problem is that, as I alluded to before, they've got this waf of thin operating allowance, which means that any new initiatives they simply won't be able to do with new money because
there's just nothing there to add insult to injury. The government's tax revenue has taken a massive hit because of the economic situation that we're in, so they are in between a rock and a hard place economically, which means that Nicola Willis has got the hardest job in politics. I mean, forget the opposition being the hardest job in politics, try being a finance minister off the back of a recession.
She does have the fact that interest rates are coming down will be a bit of a boon for her, but at the end of the day, that's the Reserve Bank and she can't have her cake and eat it too. She can't consistently blame the Reserve Bank when she was in opposition for keeping interest rates high. But as soon as they start coming down, start talking about how that's a win for the government, people will start to see
through that. What Nicola Willis has to do now is make some very tough decisions when it comes to cutting spending within the public service. And I think that you know, frankly, public spending got out of control the last couple of years of the Labor government, and it needs to be rained in. But it's not an easy task to do, and she's going to have to cut deep in some areas to actually be able to just keep the government running.
You've already touched on the Treaty Principal's Bill, which of course will be a headline this year, but it's dead in the water. So the government do you see it actually even trying to reset Crown multi relations at this point or is that ship sailed well?
I mean, the government will say that it is about outcomes for Marty rather than something like a policy like this. They will say that what we're doing for Marty is we're helping Marty get into housing, We're helping reduce the Marti unemployment rate, we're helping with some of the appalling stats that we have around healthcare for Marty. And that's
their focus. The Treaty Principle's Bill. It's ultimately meaningless because the Government will not be vote well, the National Party and New Zealand First will not be voting for it in the second reading and you know they haven't. Well, no other party apart from the Act Party will as far as we know at this stage, so in so far as the fact that you know that is what
the government is planning to do. They are very outcome orientated, and I think that's commendable for them to have those outcomes or those goals, but the outcomes need to match the rhetoric. And if they can match the outcomes to the rhetoric, I think that we're probably in a good place.
But if they are not, and some of these key statistics for MARTI continue to go backwards or even stagnate, then they're going to have a problem because they've lost the pr war and they're going to be losing the policy war as well.
I do spend a lot of time reflecting on the accidents that I take and whether I'm the best person to be doing this job and you know, how I'm navigating it. And I don't just do that alone with these thoughts kind of knocking around my head in the deed of night, but also talk to a lot of people who I admire own trusts, which includes people who've been in this institution in the past and those who are so far removed from it that I think they
have a very valuable perspective. I can tell you that I feel confident that we've done the best that we possibly could with those circumstances, with our values as are guiding.
Starts and Labor's gearing up to start getting their policies out there, and the Greens can't possibly have a worse year than last year. I suppose what are your predictions for the opposition parties?
Well, my prediction is never count out the Greens when it comes to having a worse year than they've had before. They could come out and do something way worse. Could they could blow us all away with another year of incompetence. But you would have to be pretty bad to have a worse year than they had last year, So the bar is extremely low. I would say the bar is
pretty much on the floor. So all the Greens need to do is come out with some even some really just quintessential Green policy to shift the narrative a little bit. And I think that they'll be in a position to do that when Manama is back to take a little bit of stress off Chloe Swarbrick, who I think, even though the Greens had a really really chaotically bad year, Chloe Swarbrick actually nailed her colors to the mass in terms of her leadership, and I think for in a
lot of places she handled it quite well. She's talked very openly about diversifying the Greens base. When I spoke to her before the end of last year, she was talking about going to see West Coast minors to try and bring them into the Green Party fold, which is ambitious. But this is the woman who started her tenure as co leader by saying she wants to overtake the Labor Party as the main opposition party in New Zealand, which is incredibly ambitious. But you've got to be ambitious in opposition.
That's all you have is hope and ambition and maybe sprinkle a couple of policies on there as well.
Isn't that a bit James Shaw esque? It is?
I mean, she's taken James Shaw's vision and ran to a place where I don't think that he ever thought he would go. I mean, James Shaw, at the heart of it, was a pragmatic man and he would have never said anything like we're going to overtake the Labor Party because he knows, frankly, it's just not going to happen. Bar something chaotic in the Labor Party. And if that happens, it's bad news for the Greens anyway, because they need the Labor Party to form a coalition to get into government.
So the Greens have got a bit of soul searching to do this year. But as I say, bars on the ground for them in terms of the Labor Party. I mean, you can't talk about the Labour Party without talking about tax. That is going to be a big focus for them this year. If it's going to beat the capital gains horse, are they going to flog that horse again, or if they're going to saddle up more to the Greens and talk about a wealth tax. That's all questions that they have. But you don't want to
pick early. You can talk about policy, but you should probably wait till an election year to start unveiling some otherwise it becomes quite stale.
And what are your boldest political predictions across the board this year.
I don't know if it's bold, but I am predicting a clean transition of power between David Seymour and Winston. I think the thing that Winston does well as he sticks to an agreement. He is the king of a coalition. He knows if it's written down in the agreement, they're going to stick to it, and he knows that if any party falter from that, they'll be given hell by the man himself. So I think it's going to be
a clean transition of power there. As a journalist, I'm hoping for a little bit of Argibarji, but that's just because I like something fun to write about. I actually think it probably is good for the country that we would have a good, clean transition of power. I think the government will be forced to do something quite radical
with its finances. I think the boring budget is going to be a little bit more exciting, not because they're going to throw a whole bunch of lollies around, but they're going to have to announce some deep systemic cuts into some areas because you just can't continue to be he sent to write government reading the way that this
government is in terms of the finances. There needs to be some tough decisions made and they need to be quite bold in the way that they cut things or else that future generations of New Zealanders are going to be feeling the effects for long to come. So I'm expecting something bold at some point don't know what it is, but we might see it in the budget. I think now it's just about capitalizing on some of the wins and making sure the rubber hits the road from early on.
Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. For the majority of the country aside from Todonger, local council elections will be running across September and October. To discuss what to expect, we're joined now by Newstalk ZB News director and local government reporter Michael Sergel. Michael, I can just predict now what the local elections will be about, and that's rates, right.
Oh, absolutely, yeah. Every local council in the country has been hiking rates higher than inflation, some raising them by like five or six times more than inflation. We've had Gore, Central, Hawks, Baying, Napier, Upper hut Widoer, Wellington, Westland, Central Otago, Puddydoer and Dnedin all hiking local rates by between seventeen point five and twenty one point four percent. These are really high rates
rises by anyone's books. A lot of factors to consider here, the cost of government reforms, changing government policies, particularly around freshwater and three waters. Also licensing fees not increasing, and also lots and lots of increases that councils just can't avoid.
I've had a look at some of these reports, and I mean the cost of bridges going up thirty eight percent in three years, sewage systems going up thirty percent in three years, roads thirty percent in three years, water supplies thirty percent in three years, are pool chemicals twenty five percent in two years, food for dogs at the local pound twenty percent to two years, quarrying ten point seven percent in just one year, concrete twelve point five
percent in a year, sand for pavements fifteen percent in a year, funger side up thirty one percent in just one year, fertilizes up fifty seven percent in a year, insurance premiums up about a third, and interest rates also increasing lately as well.
So they really don't have any other option other than rates rises, Right, will they be though? The death knell for mayors? Do you think?
Yeah? I mean it's a difficult one. I mean, I mean there's no getting around the fact that the councils will have to be charging more and actually doing less. And I think that the big question will be, you know what they cut and what they don't cut. I mean, we've had lots of debates recently, this huge debate in Auckland and Order to do about whether or not to move from weekly to fortnightly rubbish collections. That's something that
many other cities are already doing. Also the debates about rubbish bins, removing the local rubbish bins from the parks, letting the grass grow longer, and if you've been to a local park lately but the grass is pretty well, haven't the grass is pretty long. I mean they're talking about inches longer than they used to be. The boom debate and live in lots of councils no longer mow the burns. Also the ongoing debate about cycleway speed bumps,
pedestrian crossings that really get people going. And I suppose what do you cut and what don't?
Forty three councils will be having referendums on keeping Muorti wards, which will be voted on at the elections. Do you think that will color how the local elections go?
Yeah, I think definitely. I mean, obviously we had these forty five councils establishing or moving to establish mighty wards after that twenty twenty one law change. Then we had the new government come in and say, you know, we have to hold a public referendum in twenty twenty five to keep them. So forty three of the forty five councils voting to keep them, and we had the two councils that decided not to keep them, a Kipita District Council and Upper Hut and we had quite angry debates there.
But these votes are going to cost councils millions of dollars and those that support Mighty Wards, so that's a waste of money because most of the councils sort of overwhelmingly support the Mighty Wards. And then on the other side, we've got people saying that's a waste of money because the councils should have just accepted that and maybe voted
not to have a public vote and voted to scrap them. So, you know, definitely a lot of frustration from I suppose both sides of the debate here about the fact that there are there is even you know this many councils deciding to have referendum on this issue.
Now we can't get into all sixty seven city and district councils and their individual issues. I wish we could mike when I know that you'd love to. But are there any other major concerns across the board that affect a few of them?
Yeah, I mean, I think definitely it comes down to rates primarily, and the question of what we cut and what we don't. I mean, rates are going to go up, They're probably going to keep going up higher than inflation, just because the costs that councils are facing keeps increasing. But the question is what do they cut and what don't they cut? And I think there's no getting around the fact that we're going to end up having councils
doing less and charging us more. You guys have given me a lot of feedback.
Some of it's quite supportive, some of it's quite negative.
There's some of the shows that some of you people are nuts.
Here we go, you arefinably disappointing. It's just for me, Well, you're a bit of a dick, mate, Alex Ratzor says, my rates ball keeps going up. Side was my desire to leave Aucklane, New Zealand too well, Goodbye Top Bounder, Wellington and gone.
Up twenty five percent, Darth vaded.
I used to dislike you, but now I think I like you. Mayor Brown well got on your dar's vaded.
Looking at candidates, Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown has bounced back over the last year after his i'm going to say, disastrous handling of the Auckland floods. Are there any candidates coming for his job or is he pretty safe at the moment.
It's a really interesting race. I mean polling from about eight months ago showing some bridges is about the probably the most popular potential candidate. We're still not sure if he would stand. Wayne Brown in second place, he formerly hasn't decided whether or not he will run for me. Obviously, his popularity has sort of recovered a bit after taking that major hit now almost two years ago with his handling of the floods. And then Paula Bennett also very popular.
She's confirmed she's she's thinking about it's also telling us she's very seriously considering it, deepening. Mere Desley Simpson also very popular, sort of across the political spectrum, but all in cations are she won't stand. And they're also seeing a number of the regular candidates starting to put their name forward. Again, the conservative Ted Johnson confirming in recent days that he will definitely be running as well.
And Wellington Mayor Tory Farno probably the most at risk, isn't she.
Oh, definitely yes, and I mean you only have to listen to some of her recent interviews to see the situation she's in. We've got a number of candidates putting their name forward. Ray Hung has told us he's definitely standing, quite an outspoken critic of the mayor, got an ice cream shop owner Carl Typhon Bucker and an entrepreneur Luke Pearson. I've got a number of councilors considering running as well. A number of left wing figures have confirmed they're definitely
not running. And Mark Sainsbury, who many people will know from TV and radio, he's been quashing rumors that he might stand. Definitely. It's going to come down to probably two main key issues, the Wellington Airports hearsl and the Golden Mile talking point as well, and also those ongoing race rises the city has been facing.
What are some other councils you'll be keeping an eye on. I'm thinking Ben Bell down and Gore or not b Clark and.
In Bicago, Yeah, definitely, I mean gor Mia. Ben the country's youngest mayor, has really faced a really tough time in the last three years and often fraught relationship with both counselors and the council staff. Obviously that particularly that
issue with the CEO in vicargo with Nobby Clark. He's faced a lot of controversy for using the N word at a public event, using racist and homophobic slurs during a TV interview with a comedy show, and then over his conduct at a public event fulling heart surgery as well. The other interesting one christ Church, christ Church mayor film major facing a challenge from Sarah Templeton. He's promised to
keep his rates rises under four percent. At the last election, Ben delivered rates rises of six point four and nine point nine. I don't know how good at maths you are, but both of those numbers are over four So so facing that challenge obviously things a bit more complex than perhaps he imagined they were heading to the last election. Also important to note Todonga won't be having any election
this year. Marhi Dreysdale will remain mayor until twenty twenty eight, just to let that new council sort of bed After the commissioners were replaced with the council.
And finally, Michael, we love a prediction here on the Front Page. What's your big prediction for how these elections might go.
Yeah, well, we already saw a big swing to the right at the last election three years ago, something we've been seeing in local and central government elections right around the world over the last three years in the sort of pandemic post pandemic era. Since then, we've had some real cost of living pressures with high inflation driven by the non tradable inflation like rates. So the things that people can't avoid not paying, and rates are a big
one of those. And so we're probably going to see more support for candidates who promise to contain rates increases, even if that means further spending cutbacks. Expect rates increases to be a really big issue at this year's election.
Thanks for joining us, Michael.
Thank you.
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at Ensad Herald dot MZ. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
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