Kyota.
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New Zealand Politics kicks off this year.
Under the shadow of a looming general election. From a continued cost of living.
Crisis and economic recovery to treaty debates and tensions between coalition partners, this year will see a mixed bag from the Beehive. It comes off the back of a major push for economic growth in twenty twenty five, with Roma reform and fast track approvals dominating headlines.
But will all of that pay off today?
On the Front Page, we dive into where each party stands, what they've announced us far, and what the election campaign could bring us with Newstalk z.
B political reporter Ethan Griffin. Ethan, as we enter the new year, what do you see as I guess the defining.
Issues that we're going to be voting on come election twenty twenty six and.
One word, it's the economy, right, Everything relies on the economy. It's the biggest issue for voters. Voters vote on how they're feeling in their back pocket. Now, we haven't seen much growth in the last two years at all, we're expecting moderate growth in the next twelve months. The question really will be how much growth do we see. National's fortunes rely pretty much entirely on the economy. It's not a be all and end all. They will seriously be
hoping that we see some growth this year. Also expect health to be a bit of a focus as well. The IPSOS Issues Monitor, which sort of records the biggest issues for New Zealand voters, is pretty clear right now that health is the second biggest issue. It was an issued last campaign as well. National and Labor have spent a lot of time talking about it over the last two years, so expect that to be on the agenda as well. I'd also keep it eye on superannuation this year.
There's been a bit of talk from Labor and New Zealand First on that. Both have pretty strong policies on the issue of super annuation. Expect the policy from National on that as well. And one more to keep an eye on immigration and migration. We've had some pretty high rivals over the term. Expect New Zealand First to be
talking a bit about that. But a bigger issue than that is of course the New Zealand is moving offshore migration, particularly the key he is heading over the ditch, so expect Labor to focus a lot on that as well.
We mentioned the health of our economy there.
Of course, it's obviously a major point of contention heading into the election. Do you reckon national will be in trouble even if it's a moderate shift When it comes to the economy. How many eggs have they put in the economy basket?
Pretty much all of them. I think it's fair to say they will be that this will be the number one concern on the ninth floor right now. What level of growth are we going to see this? And as I said, I think it's clear that we will see some and we desperately need it. The question will be how much do we see. They will be hoping it's a lot. Will it be enough to get them over
the line. I'm not ready to make predictions on that, but the economy is undoubtedly going to be the bigest issue of the campaign.
And of course we'll look for Ford to budget twenty twenty six.
Hopefully it will be a bit sexier than last.
Year's potentially, but then again, the government's broke, They've got no money, there's no surplus in the next five years in the foreseeable future. This is a government who is essentially relying on cutting parts of the state and audition out money to other areas, which they've done with things like farmac cancer, Droon's health and things like that. It's unlikely to be a budget where lots of lollies are thrown around, but you never know, do you, Reckon.
Parties will start politicking straight off the back of the summer holidays.
Yeah, I think so. Expect in the next two weeks some major set piece speetures by both leaders. Chris Luxon is planning a State of the Nation's speech which you can expect to hear at some point in the next few weeks. I have no doubt that Precipians will follow
with some sort of rally as well. Both parties will be getting into January with their away caucuses, their caucus retreats where they all go away to various parts of the country and have their little meetings and their little huis in those places and then come together ready to fight at election campaign. Of course, you've got Vatima and Waitangi coming up as well the start of the political year, and that will make things even more explosive.
What pressure points do you see arising from the current coalition government as they're more than likely straight off the back going to be going their separate ways and trying really hard to differentiate themselves from the others.
Yeah, well this is kind of uncharted territory right this is the first three party coalition government. I think it's fair to say, looking at the polls right now, the parties have actually done an all right job differentiating themselves throughout the term. I think the rules of MMP have slightly been shifted. I think we've seen a lot more disagreement this term than we have seen in any previous
MMP governments, and I think the polls reflect that. Both AT and New Zealand first sitting quite comfortably there in the polls. On Winston, we're seeing it already. I sat down with him shortly before Christmas and he was criticizing the National's talk on the economy and the lack of action that we're seeing. He's also been prinicle of Acts Regulatory Standards Bill as well. For David Seymour, the obvious
one there is race relations. I also sat down with him just before Christmas and he says, that's a drum that he's going to continue to bang. It's a very important issue for the ACT Party, so expect that to be part of the election campaign as well. In terms of it heating up this year it's an election year, it undoubtedly will. But I think it's also worth noting here that all three parties have done a fairly decent job of differentiating themselves throughout the term, so expect to
see a little bit more of that this year. It's naturally an election year.
Are you surprised that David Seymour will continue to bang on that drum?
Not hugely. It's a very important issue for him and clearly a very important issue for his voter base. I think of all the policies that he's come up with in the last how long he's been in politics ten years now, even euthanasia, I don't think God has much attention for him. It was successful for him, it didn't pass, he got lots of headlines out of it, his supporters love it. I would imagine it's going to be an issue that he continues to explore come election.
Yet, how would you describe twenty twenty five for the ACT Party in a word or two tough.
It was tough for everybody, but towards the end that just started to feel like we were turning a corner. And I hope a people come back into twenty twenty six, that momentum will continue for the whole country. And of course I'd be lying if I didn't say I hope it continues for act of course.
Okay, well said.
In terms of minor parties, Ethan, do you think any A well placed to really bring it back home in twenty twenty six and have a kind of breakout moment.
I suppose I can't see any breakout moments immediately right now. What I can see is a breakaway moment, and that's obviously to Party Mardi. They had a disastrous year last year, particularly the last few months. They had six MP's coming into parliament this term. They've now got four. Two of them have been booted, Mariamno Cupa Kingi from the north and Tucke to Ferris from the south, both quite popular MPs,
particularly Maririu and Menno up north. Expect to see potentially those who run as independents or a new breakaway Maori movement begin. It will also be really interesting to see how the party sits with its own supporter base in terms of those people that support Muddey and Meno and Target and are feeling disillusioned with the party. Looking also at the Greens, they've been bouncing around prey much we you'd expect them to in the polls, but it's interesting
of all the party leaders. Zoe Swarbrick, co Leader of the Green Party, this is her first election as a leader of a party, sort of inted interesting to watch her and see how she performs this year as well.
It's actually easy to forget that it's her first election as leader because she has always been a prominent presence within the Green Party. Do you reckon that that's going to change anything for her or is she just going to track on.
She's a popular politician and she connects with a lot of different people. It'll be really interesting to see her traveling the length of the country and campaigning. Of course, she's also got her own seat, all Concentral, which she'll be campaigning in as well, so it'll be very interesting to see how she balances that, and more broadly for the Greens, which electorates they keep as well. Of course
you've got Tamitha Paul here in Wellington Central. Those boundaries have changed, they might not be as favorable to the Greens. And then you've got Julianne Genta and Wellington Bays the renamed Wellington Bays electorate, and it looks like from boundary changes that would benefit her as well. So the Greens could be in for quite a good year.
Know that the Opportunities Party has a new leader. Do you reckon they're going to make any waves.
They have a new leader, right, They've got some new blood. They'll probably quite energized. I know that they've still sort of been around and polls around that sort of one to two percent area, I think, outside of twenty seventeen where Gareth Morgan were leading them. This election is probably their best shot at getting into Parliament. That's not saying they will. That is a wild call to say that. What I do think and see in the political realm right now is the Purple vote is down. The Purple
vote is very very small. People are looking for alternatives. Some people may be looking at the Opportunities Party and thinking this could be a good alternative. It's really going to depend what policies they come out with. How much coverage they get and where the voters see them as a viable alternative to the parties already in parliament and whatever. I mean.
We spoke about this a little bit on the podcast last year, this idea potentially of a breakoff another Moldi led party. Of course, you mentioned those two that have been expelled. What are the likelihoods or is there any whisperings around Parliament that that could actually happen or will they just likely run as independence.
It's really hard to say. It's going to depend on them talking to their people and the support that they're engaging for themselves. I think it is interesting that in the High Court action we saw last year where Maniammino Kapakingi challenged the Mardi Party around her expulsion, that was just her, It wasn't both of them taking that compactionion together. So I'm not sure how much we read into that in terms of how they are engaging with each other.
If they could form their own movement or runners independents. It's also very possible one of them might drop out and choose not to run and the other one does. I guess it's really a wedding.
Game and remind us of a few election promises that we've already heard from thus far.
Yeah, it's actually been very light so far. To Labor, we've obviously had their capital gains tax policy, a twenty eight percent flat capital gains tax on investment properties, not the family home, not yes, and not the farm. Then they've got their Future Fund, which essentially is taking the dividends from stat Own Enterpris's assets, chucking them into a little investment kitty and waiting thirty years to start pulling
money out of that. And obviously they want to get rid of the Regulatory Standards Act in their first one hundred days as well. That's pretty much at the Labor the national they want to bring, can we say, the contributions from three percent to six percent by twenty thirty two. I imagine there would be some broad cross party support for a policy like that. Obviously, they are the major party of government, so expect to hear much more from them as well.
Is it surprising this early on not to have, you know, announced anything.
More potentially from Labour's perspective, Yes, they've had two years in opposition now they've had the same leadership, so they haven't sort of they've had to sort of get used to opposition, but they haven't had to get used to a whole new leadership team. You would think they would be bubbling away on the background on some policy. I'm sure they have and it will come to the four this year, but you'd probably expect more from Labor at
this point in the term. In terms of the government, I think it's fair to say they've been focused on governing. They release policies all the time, policies that the government progresses with. It'll be very interesting to see of the three parties of government what they bring to an election campaign.
Well, perhaps Labor hasn't needed to.
How have the poles been looking at that at the last half of last year?
And this is the really interesting thing, right, the poles are at nice edge territory. There were forty seven poles conducted last year. I went back and had a lock. Labor was leading in twenty two of them. National was leading in twenty five of them. So it is really split down the middle there. Now, those are various poles, different methodology, different companies, so take it all with a grain of salt. Also have to make the point that the government was leading in most of them. While Labor
was the largest party. If things could stay the same, we could realistically see some of the weakest purple vote in an MP right. That's the red and the blue vote coming together. They are at record lows right now, and the minor parties are in very very strong positions. It'll be interesting to see a Disney consolidation as the year goes on, but right now the polls are in very much Nithe Edge territory.
I've still got a lot of energy for this job. I only took over about eight months before the election. I had eight months as Prime Minister, and you know I said there as soon as I took over from Gacinda, I want Labor to get back to focusing on what
the Labor Party is all about. Jobs, health homes, you know, making sure we're raising living standards for all New Zealanders, focusing on the things that unite New Zealanders rather than the things that divide us apart, making sure that we we're dealing with controversial and tricky areas like the Treaty for example, that we're slowing down a bit and we're
bringing people with us. We're not you know, people don't feel like a whole lot's happening that they don't know about and they're mistrustful of their You know, I started that work when I became Prime Minister and then, you know, I still think that's that the Labor Party needs to do. I think we need to make sure that we're there for the people who we represent.
And in terms of all of the party leaders, I know that there were a few questions swirling around last year. Do you Reckon Hopkins will continue through to the election.
I know he's told us he will.
I think it's I think it's likely Labor are in a good position right now. The only way you could see him falling out of that job as if things get really dire for the Labor Party. And there's a fun fact here, Actually, this is the first time ever if both lead to stand their job, the first time ever under MMP that two leaders had fought an election twice in a row. The last time that happened was before an MP in nineteen ninety three with Jim Vulger
and Mike Moore. And this is where it gets interesting. In nineteen ninety Bulger smashed Mike mooreter win his first term in office. Three years later, more came within one seat of winning against Jim Vulger. So it doesn't repeat, but it may give us an indication of how tight this election could be.
And when those numbers become clearer.
I mean, I know that Labor and Tipati, Maori and the Greens have all kind of kept a separate from themselves, and I suspect the coalition government parties will do the same coming into the year. When do you expect them to kind of merge together?
I suppose I think.
Throughout the year all we're going to see is them sort of come apart a little bit more. It's fairly clear who the preferred partners are, right, Green's work with Labor, the Maori Party want to work with the Left Actors very much. Act would work with National. It's as simple really as that. But there is differentiation there. The parties have different policies. I imagine as we head towards election day,
those differentiations are going to be much more clear. It's only after the election that they'll start to come together and negotiate either side depending on where they sit, and then we'll get a result after that.
And you match mentioned Ratna and why Tongey.
Of course, before the unofficial kicking off of the political year. Do we know anything about those events? Has anyone said that they're not going.
No at this stage. Well, we have Latona next week up in the very ot Snagtak. At this time of year that is generally seen as the start of the political year. Pretty much all party leaders go to that event. I think David Seam has missed it a few times. And then of course in early February we have White Honey up North and that is always a set piece event. It's interesting the Prime Minister Chris Luckxon didn't attend last year. He actually spent the day with Natahou and Kadoa just
outside of christ Church. So it will be interesting to see if, given it's an election year, he will attend White Honey celebrations. Safe to assume David Seam will be there, Chriss Hipkins will be there, the Greens will be there. Winston usually goes that's his nahe up in the North, so no doubt he'll be there. The question really is the Prime Minister. He hasn't made a decision on that yet.
And Ethan finally give me some predictions for this year. I don't mind how wild they are and I don't mind if you want to put some cash down if you're really confident about some as well.
Predictions are a fool's game, particularly in politics.
But I can't play.
I'll give you three. I'll give you three. It will be a November election. I'm pretty confident in that both National and Labor won't get more than forty percent of the party vote, and either David Seymour or CRUs Hipkins will get married, but both won't. Only one will. They're both engaged, obviously, so.
Only one will.
Well, I've already seen a Woman's Day and Z cover from one of them. Do you reckon there's going to be another as well, featuring Seymour.
We'll have to wait and see. I don't know if he's ever been in Woman's Day actually, but I feel like I feel like you quite enjoy it.
Yeah, I think so as well.
Well, I reckon I'll put a couple of dictions down as well. I think you're you're straight on the money with no party reaching forty percent, so I agree with you on that. But also I think a major announcement in regards to assets sales before the next election as well.
I think that's going to be a hot topic.
I agree, it's certainly going to be one to watch.
Thanks so much for joining us, Ethan, Thanks Chelsea. That's it for this episode of the Front Page.
You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at NZDHERLD dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who's also our editor.
I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.