Tāmaki Makaurau by-election: What you need to know

for September sixth. Today on the front Page, Victoria University of Wellington Associate Professor Lara Grieves is with us to give us a rundown of what you need to know about this sought after seat. First off, Lara, give us some background of this electorate. I understand it was quite hotly contested in twenty twenty three.

Mahari is like fundamentally back. And there were two electorates that went down to the special votes, went down to a recount, and ultimately there were I think forty two votes in it for Tama Kimikoto with Party Marti flipping the seat. So very close electorate one that kind of people were then talking about penn Hannaday like will he

continued to contest it? Does this mean he's not maybe leadership or ministerial material, you know, things are being read into it here and there, And ultimately, yeah, really close race. And just again like acknowledging the sadness of takutamiwan At tash Kimp's passing and how the unexpected that was and yeah, totally heart goes out to her father and her community and how terrible that was. But yeah, a very set of up and down events in this electorate over the last couple of years.

have had a selection contest. An odd Any Kuipitter, the former broadcaster, is now running for to Party Mahty in that electorate. So that's the main race that we're looking at here is Labor versus to Party Mahdi. There are a little there are a few other kind of minor candidates and independents running around the edges, just trying to really get a bit of a voice to their platform and shot to the debates and do bits and pieces and get some bot get some attention.

that space is an interesting battle. First off. The second thing for labor is labor now has to balance, you know, do you keep the old guard, the people who had ministerial positions in the Arduan government, the baggage they might be associated, wouldn't that the kind of has to be balanced with the experience that they have. So I mean for labor, it is interesting because it does seem like

they haven't had that many retirements. It does seem like laborable contests and the election with a lot of that lineup of the ministers from the Ardurn years that are still in there, do.

be a bit careful about reading in this electorate. The other thing, of course, is turnout will probably be quite low. Turnout and buy elections is really low. People have to re engage their brain, think about politics. Are they enrolled, They've got to show up, they've got to go and vote, they've got to felt the form, they've got to do all the things. And it's outside of an election cycle.

So normally turnout as incredibly low. So we need to be a bit careful to not read too much into this by election, although you know we are only about a year out from the election. Easy to do so.

by our fucker puppa, and by our identity. And Penny hen Nadi and Tashkeb couldn't have been any closer.

who choose to run in those general electorates. So generally it's like, if you're going to run in those electorates, you have a greater level of engagement with tikong Amari today Amari like just Marti customing practices language, culture, ways of doing things. That's been more something that you live and breathe when you compare people who've been an MP in a Maiti electorate to even Marty who've been in a general electorate. So that's just part and parcel of it.

The other thing is is they're there like it's in the name Marti electorate, like you're there to represent Mardy, Like you have a slightly different mandate of the interests of the kind of values that you're there to stand for and represent, and that I mean that can be quite tricky for people, say who are Marty in the Labor Party. We've seen some struggle with that in the past,

especially around the foreshore and sea being controversy. But that can be a bit tricky to balance those Marti electorate representational interests with what your party wants. So you've kind

of got that tensional and that creates this mandate. So we know for my research that Marty electorate voters tend to be prouder of being Marty, tend to have a lot of like engagement or culture, and tend to really believe in the Madi electorates and their importance for representing Mardi representing Marty people, ideas to treaty you know, Copapa

Mardi and bits and pieces like that. So they're very the seats are very Mardy through and through and engaged Marty ways of doing things in politics and kind of ways of being in the world and thinking about all of these issues. So there's that whole kind of cultural

base that is sitting behind the Mahdi electorates. And there's such an interesting feature of representing like a specific indigenous population and culture that it's it's interesting seeing other countries now start to talk about them or think about, you know, these reserved seats as well. So yeah, it's quite a different rice, a different way of thinking about or doing politics.

I mean it's still Westminster politics, still Parliament at the end of the day, but it's done a little bit differently.

could be that, it could be the other thing. Ultimately, it is a by election and quite a specific part of the country. We have to notice, well that for many years now the right wing parties haven't run in the seat, although National did run a candidate in the last election, so it's just got a different party dynamic as well. That's the other thing to kind of note. So yeah, there's definitely things we could read into, but

generally it's just kind of its own standalone contest. The other thing is that I'm not sure about, and I've talked to different Mardi voters and the electorate about their thoughts on this is yeah, rarely whether it feels right to vote and to create it make it this contest stuff. If someone who's passed on and what that means you're respecting their legacy, there might be another thing that people are thinking about in the voting book and thinking about

honoring Kent's legacy. Honoring to party Mardi and honoring their continued presence in that scene. So it's pretty hard. There's a lot going on there. I mean, there will be things we read into it, but it's ultimately not like a microcosm of the broader country in any way.

from those seats and so acts. So if you think, if you're a political party and you're saying, well, ethnicity, you know, tatidity doesn't matter for this or that, then running in those electorates doesn't really marry up well with your ideology. So generally it's a case of both parties saying we don't believe in these seats, we're not going to run in them. National over the John Key years and being government of the Marti Party kind of softened on them a bit and didn't run for a while there,

but kind of weren't actively looking to abolish them. So the whole party and the way they thought about the Marti electorates changed this last time round. They ran free candidates in the Marti electorates, So perhaps are understanding that you know, an electorate race, an election, even if you're not going to win, is an opportunity for you to. So the rooster's right outside is.

So National has been running in these electorates. They've been running some candidates and putting forward their arguments, their policies, and perhaps more campaigning for the party vote, but using it as an opportunity to expose their ideas to a much wider range of voters. All of this is occurring against this broader kind of demographic trend we're seeing of They're basically being a higher proportion of the population being Marty. By twenty forty, a further of the children in this

country will be of Marti descent. We're seeing in different surveys that people are really proud to be Marty and proud of Malti culture. Tongue, tid t Marty politics of their nature. So running in the electorates and making relationships with Marty is like a good investment in the future, especially for National Is the center right party.

safe home that you can afford. It's like one of those big core issues continues to be in any kind of polling that I've seen and always is an important set of issues in the Marti electorates because you know, on average, we know that Marty have less intergenerational waff less socio economic resources, and so that continues to be

a huge issue. So we've got that broad set of economic issues in equity issues that I think will be key to this campaign, and we've seen the candidates talk about these and really signal the emphasis on these issues. There's also the broader set of issues around Marty feeling under attack from the government. Obviously the most recent one being the use of tada ra mahti in school books as an example, but it seems like there's another example

every week or so. So those kind of political, kind of culture issues, they seem to be less of it in terms of when we poll people, when you do public opinion polling, they seem to be less of a huge issue for many voters, but it's still an issue, and it's an issue for a lot of Marty when you speak to Marty about whether you know they I

kind of agree with the government on that. However, a lot of those culture issues perhaps less contested in this electorate because again we see labor into party Marty running against themselves. But that's that broader background of Marty feeling under attacked by the current government and putting a lot of effort, a lot of energy into opposing different changes at the moment, So that broader political context is sitting there as well.

Lee Martiner. Now you mentioned before these three kind of the thought of a Kelvin out running for a Maori seat obviously is.

So all of those laws changed in the nineteen sixties and nineteen seventies, and part of those law changes opened up the marti electorates for anyone to run in the marty electorates, and any marty to run in the general electorates. Because before the nineteen sixties Marty, there was this rule around blood quantum where if you were half you could choose which role you were on. And so it's this whole colonial legacy that didn't dis enfranchise a lot of people.

So that's a bike product of those law changes in the sixties and see fatigue. That meant that Marty could run in whatever seat. And then on the foot side it changed so non Marty could run in whatever seat. And so yeah, any it doesn't matter what fucker popper you are, you can run in a Marti electorate. Yes, there could be conversations about whether that's appropriate or not. I don't think that this is a political time or environment to have that unnecessarily, but these are the current

roles and so anyone is free to run. And ultimately, you know what it comes down to at the end of the day is the voters can decide. The voters they have to be of Maori descent, they have to declare they're of Marty descent. The voters on the Maldi roll they get to decide who they elect. Hypothetically Marty and a Marty electorate could could elect a non Marty if they chose to and if that was their choice, again, it's over to them. It's probably very very very exceptionally

unlikely to happen, but it could happen. It's a free choice there. So for these candidates it's a matter of like making their political points, you know, getting a bit of a platform, getting a bit of attention, getting mentioned, and seeing what comes with it. That's the kind of main agenda there. It's like when we you know, soon we'll open our little books and look at all the Merril candidates and sometimes we have a good laugh. Sometimes

we'll go, well, who's that. Sometimes we'll be offended. It's the same sort of thing in a democracy. In this case, in the Mahdi electorates. Anyone can run, and anyone is running. Thanks for joining us, Lara, Suanna. Thank you.