Kiota.
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald.
Warnings of a city killer.
Asteroid hirshling towards Earth have been filling our news feeds over the last month. The space rock, dubbed twenty twenty four yr four had a three point one percent chance of hitting Earth in the year twenty thirty two. That made it one of the riskiest asteroids ever according to NASA, but they've since lowered their assessment again to zero point to eight percent. That hasn't stopped news of this asteroid sparking a social media and news obsession.
Just the latest thing for people.
To worry about in amongst wars, a bad economy and political uncertainty. So why are we so obsessed with doom scrull and is fixating on potential disasters bad for our health? Later we'll discuss that side of things with doctor Lisa Harrison, a lecturer in digital communications at Flinders University. But first on the Front Page, to put all your minds at ease, we're speaking to Joshua Alraki from Stardom. So, Joshua, what can you tell us about the twenty twenty four yr four and its discovery.
Yeah, so this is a pretty it's a decently small asteroid in terms of asteroids. It was discovered late last year and we think it's about fifty to one hundred meters wide, so it's pretty small in terms of asteroids. But we've found that from kind of the first observations that there is a very slim chance that it could potentially impact Earth in twenty thirty two, but we don't quite know you and it's still very very small chance.
So on a scale from say the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs to a loose pebble heading you win screen, what would be the effects of an asteroid this size hitting Earth?
Yeah, I mean I will stress first off that this asteroid is not an extinction level event. It is very small. You know, for example, the one that wiped out the dinosaurs was about ten kilometers across, so this is, you know, fifty tow one hundred meters, which is really really small
in comparison. But in saying that, you know, these, that is big enough that it would cause damage if it were to impact their populated area, the air burst potentially if it exploded within the atmosphere could be quite catastrophic. We often rate these things on a kind of a nibertary scale we call the Terno scale in terms of asteroid impacts, with zero being no impact, in ten being catastrophic, and astronomers have put this at a three, so it's
still quite low down on the list. You've also got to remember that, you know, as to where it falls on the Earth. I mean, most of the Earth is covered in oceans. That would basically kind of be the best case scenario if it did land over the oceans. A majority of our land mass, it's source so pretty unpopulated, so it's still a very slim chance that it would cause, you know, catastrophic damage to a city.
Right, So how is that likelihood of hitting Earth actually calculated?
It's basically from the orbital parameters. So when we discover this asteroid, we basically just track the part that it was taking around the Sun. But the problem with that is when we found it, the asteroid is actually moving away from the Earth, so we're only going to get
a couple of months to observe it. So we're going to start to use some of our space telescopes, but we won't really get a lot of information until it comes closer to Earth, and that's actually in a few years, in twenty twenty eight, and that's when we're going to get much more information as to its path and its size, and if it is having a high chance of hitting Earth, as to where it's going to fall on the Earth.
So when we kind of look at these percentages and you mentioned that scale of one to ten, we're out of three at the moment, at what point did we actually start getting worried.
Yeah, I mean it's astronomers have been saying, you know, it's definitely something to be aware of, but it's definitely not a point of concern at this point. We just don't have enough information to make those decisions just yet. But you know, saying that if we do decide that this asteroid is going to impact Earth, we think it's going to fall over a populated area, we do have
technologies to mitigate that. We can actually deflect asteroids. NASA famously did a few years ago with their Dart mission where they actually smashed into one and can alter its course through space. So even if it were to have a chance of impacting we would be able to mitigate it.
So I think I read somewhere that UK scientists have now stated that it may be too late to deflect the asteroid. I mean, how would we even go about deflecting something like that? Is it something like, I don't know, Armageddon, where we train a group of miners to become astronauts.
Yeah, I mean I think that would be a very exciting scenario, definitely, But yeah, I think realistically, you know, it would be an uncrued spacecraft. We definitely wouldn't be sending people, and it's definitely probably not as exciting as Bruce willis, you know, setting off a nuclear bomb, But it's more about impacting an asteroid a few years before it's on its course towards Earth and that basically nudges it slightly and that means that when it does come
trust it wouldn't impact. But we would really only have a few years to get that done. So it really just depends if you know, space agencies are willing to put in the resource to do that.
Yeah, and that resource, I mean it would probably cost a lot of money to do that, right, Yeah.
I mean you're talking hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars for these space missions and you know, they take a lot time plan to build, to construct, and then to launch and send, and all of that isn't a guarantee. You know, things go wrong in space all the time. But again it's it's just such a small chance that yeah, I definitely wouldn't think that space agencies already are looking at those those missions.
The right question to then ask is how much damage would it do? These things are moving very fast. The closing speeds are typically twenty thirty, forty fifty kilometers per second, so that's a lot of kinetic energy being brought in. A good rule of thumb here is that the creator would be about ten to twenty times the size of the asteroid itself, So ten to twenty times something that's almost to one hundred meters. We would leave a crater
between one and two kilometers across. If it happens out in the middle of nowhere, then it's just an interesting crater. We have one of those in Arizona. It's called Meteor Crater. It's almost a mile across.
How often do these kind of bodies show up on the radar?
Have we had any near misses in recent history?
We've had a few.
I mean there was about a decade ago over Russia there was the Cheliobinksk media and that basically exploders and the earbursts basically caused massive amounts of damage. It broke windows, injured people. Miraculosi didn't tell anyone, but this kind of scary thing about that asteroids was only about twenty meters across, and we actually had no idea it was coming. It
was just completely out of the blue. And there was also more famous events about one hundred years ago, the Tunguska events, where a similar size asteroids the one we're talking about, exploded over Siberia. So there are very few people around, but you know, it flattens true. You know, millions and millions of trees in the area, So these
definitely happen. But I think it's also you know, it's a reminder that we are living in a time where we can detect these things for the most part, we can predict them ahead of time, and we do have technology to mitigate them.
Yeah, and a lot of countries around the world now have kind of space agencies or ministries of space or we've even got in New Zealand a Minister for space. Now, I guess it's a good thing that so many countries are so interested in space because if something like this happened, they can coordinate and speak to each other, right.
Yeah, And that's kind of the benefit of space exploration is I think a lot of people don't think all the stuff that we do in space, often in terms of exploration discovery, but directly benefits us here on Earth with the technologies. But yeah, I mean, the space agencies nowadays are massive, and I think we're especially now more than ever, we're seeing a lot more collaboration between countries, which you know, it's really important because it's very expensive
through these things. But when we get you know, the smartest of us working together, we can have these really incredible missions, you know, like NASA's Dart mission, you know, sending an asteroid on a different path in space, and that's you know, that's really incredible when you think about it. And I always say, you know, the asteroids, the dinosaurs went extinct because they didn't have a space program, right
whereas we do. So it's quite cool when you think about the collaboration between countries.
So that mission that you mentioned, I mean, that sounds pretty cool what happened there.
Yeah, and it does sound something you know, orustraight out of the sci fi. But yeah, as they had their DART mission, which was double asteroid redirect and they basically just flew a spacecraft into an asteroid called dimorphous and the impact basically altered the course of that asteroid over time.
And we studied it over a year and we found that it was wildly successful, and it basically taught us that you know, if we have the resources and the available time, if there is an asteroid that we do want to deflect, and we have enough time for it to actually be deflected, it is a possible and viable means of technology.
So essentially, to wrap things up, I guess I'll stop preparing for the worst and finding a shelter somewhere to hide in.
I mean, we're looking okay at the moment.
Yeah, I mean, we've actually we know where it would impact if it was it's kind of this very thin strip of land that kind of stretches kind of near the equator from Central America across to India. But it's a very small patch of land.
Thanks for joining us, Joshua, No problem. This asteroid is just the latest doomsday scenario. That's got people talking, and the changing face of social media means it's more difficult to avoid than ever and we don't seem to be trying to ignore it anymore.
We're now joined by doctor Lisa Harrison.
Lisa, doom scrolling is a fairly new term and one that would probably confuse. It's a time traveling victorian, So how would you describe it?
So doom scrolling is? I think it all started when marketers realize that clickbait would entice people to stay online, and we end up finding these topics that we just want to dive deeper into or we think we need to. And it's actually not a very healthy habit to get into because it's a very unconscious way of consuming media.
And what is doom scrolling Because obviously the scrolling part comes from the likes of TikTok or Facebook or you're scrolling through your feed, right, But the doom part.
Yeah, it's where we tend to be focused on all the negative news that is out there. It tends to be news that we just don't have any control over either. But almost like when you know, we get stuck watching a car crash, you know, you want to know what's going on, but it's not necesscessarily really a positive experience.
Well, the term doom scrolling was a word of the year in New Zealand back in twenty twenty, and it probably makes sense given how fixated people were on COVID. Then do you think our doom scrolling has gotten any better or worse since then?
Oh?
Look, I think there's just so much global negative, negative news out there. I think it's we're tending to get more sucked into it. But in saying that too, I think we're becoming more aware that it is a thing and it's getting talked about more, which is great.
Is there anything new in this idea?
I mean, people are currently fretting about a potential killer asteroid. But if you think about Y two K or twenty twelve and that whole Mayan calendar situation.
Behold, the end is coming next year, That is, if you believe that kind of thing. Here's another tantalizing piece of evidence of bread discovered in the ancient Mayan ruins of Kaml Kalco that cites the year twenty twelve. That's the exact same year mentioned on a thirteen hundred year old tablet previously found among the nearby ruins of Tortuguero with this intriguing inscription.
It's basically saying that the deity Bolon yok de Coups appears on December twenty first of twenty twelve, and he descends and he performs a ritual.
Aren't we a bit predisposed to obsessing over the end of the world?
Yeah, I think it tends to be.
You know, those conspiracy theories tends to suck us in as well. I think the difference now though, is that there's just so much more access to these this kind of content and very diverse opinions and biases and things like that.
What do you think some of the factors that are leading us to doom scroll more regularly.
I think one of the major aspects of it is the platforms that these content are being shared on want to keep you on their platform. So we've we've got to fight the algorithms now as well. And you know, they're very sophisticated technology so that you know, they can make more money to advertisers the longer that we're on those platforms. So we've we've really got to be more mindful of what we are doing online.
Yeah, I think the media often gets blamed for promoting negative news stories, perhaps fixating on crime reporting or the doom and gloom too much. This asteroid and the many many stories on it in the past month are probably a testament to that. Is the media still to blame when you have, like you said, so many social media apps now that are spreading people's reckons their own analysis, amplifying the panic I guess over these kind of things.
Look, there's a part play in it, for sure, But you know, just as a marketing professional from industry, you know, one of the most important aspects of your marketing is understanding your audience, and and the audience is the you know, keeps clicking on these things, so you know, it just
it's it's almost like it's a perfect storm. I think of marketing, media algorithms, digital consumption being you know, so huge, and we've got such a diverse what we've got diverse ways of accessing all this media and news as well.
If people are worried about how bad their doom scrolling has become, what can they do to curb their habit.
Look, there's there's a few tips. I think. Firstly, remembering that consuming media negative media is like having a bad diet and can cause anxiety when we don't keep it in check. But other things we need to think about connecting with people in real life and face to face and actually talking to your friend's family or co workers
about some of this content online. And then it becomes a little bit of you start seeing the biases you know, and you see how different ways of looking and reflecting on these negative news items, but also just choosing one or two credible news sources or news articles that you like, topics that you like to engage in, and keeping check of the time that you spend online as well. I also recommend don't jump on your phone first thing in
the morning or last thing at night. Those times are really precious to get ready for the day or get wined down from the day, and this doom scrolling is not a good habit to get into.
Thanks for joining us, Lisa.
My pleasure, Thanks for having me.
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzidherld dot co dot nz.
The Front Page is produced by Ethan.
Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer.
I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Subscribe to the front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.