Kyoda.
I'm Georgena Campbell in for Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by.
The New Zealand Herald.
The National Party will be gathering for its annual general meeting this weekend. It comes as the party recently marked eight months in power and as key campaign promises of tax cuts and use bootcamps take effect, giving them plenty to celebrate. But it's not been an easy ride for the biggest party in Parliament, caught in the middle of a coalition it would rather not be in, and facing continue to push back over its handling of MALDI relations
and the environment. Today on the Front Page, we discuss how National is handling these highs and lows with New Zealand Herald political editor Clear Trevette Clear, what can we expect from this weekend's conference?
So it is the first of the National Party big conferences since they got into government, so it will be I guess luck, since first one as Prime minister. They'll all be there to give their reckons on how much the National Party has achieved. There will be presentations from the key ministers, as there always is, on kind of
how things are tracking in their progression. And then the members will get to debate a few of the remits, which is kind of policy, kind of issues that they like to cheer over and sometimes send a message to caucus. And then Christopher Luxen will give his speech on Sunday with I would expect some form of an announcement in that speech, So it should be quite a big weekend for them.
So how different is a party's conference when that party is in government? As you just indicated, they can and actually make announcements. Can we expect it to be a big one or is it more likely to be a smaller one because of the coalition?
Yeah, I've been trying to pick what the announcement might be. So at some point they can differentiate between announcing something that they're going to do in governments as opposed to announcing what they might campaign on in the next election. And in that case, national will soon start looking at what they might start rolling out for the next election campaign because they can't. Does Willie Nelly bring in new
policies this term? Really because of the coalition agreement, They've agreed to do whatever's in those agreements, and that's kind of where it stops. So if they want to do anything that they hadn't campaigned on last time, and that coalition partners hadn't agreed to. They would have to get
their approval before they could kind of do it. So I'm just trying to work out which of the things in the government's action plan haven't yet been done which might form the basis of an announcement for this conference, or whether or not Christopherlatson might picture a bit further forward and give some indication of what they might be thinking about doing in the next term and the event they get through to the next election, what they might
campaign on. So we'll wait and see. I do know the focus of the conference is going to be on national core bread and butter issues such as the economy, law and order, health and education, so I would be picking that the announcement will be in the economy area
or the law and order area. It is a bit different when they're in government because at their last conference, you'll remember they went in there and they announced their law and order policy, their corrections policy, and that was the kind of keynote of that, and the speeches were all full of how bad the Labor government was and how National was going to make everything better. When you're in government, you have to turn up and tell the members what you've done to make it better now that
you're in government. But there will still be a bit of a jab at the former labor government, I'm sure, for the areas they might not have achieved as much as they want it too, they'll still want to be blaming the former labor government.
Will your government achieve those twenty twenty eight child poverty productions?
Well, we're coming from behind because actually the last government saw child poverty increase because they leat inflation run completely out of control. We inherited a cost of living crisis, a recession, and part of our cleanup is getting people off the job seeker benefit.
Will your government commit to hitting those twenty twenty eight child poverty reduction targets?
That remains a target, but as you can see, it would be extremely challenging to meet it.
Do you think they might be particularly hyped up after this week of their big promise being tax cuts coming into effect. Do you think that sort of provides them with a bit of energy going into the conference.
Yeah, I think they will go in with a fair bit of energy. So what you've got to remember is that there are things that are upsetting people kind of outside around the more controversial policies and stuff like that aren't necessarily upsetting to the National Party member. A lot of them are they call bread and butter issues, and in the lead up to the conference there's been a
big chunk of those rolled out. So you've had the tax cuts land the week before the conference, Yes, Nationals delivered on that was very much the centerpiece of its election campaign. It's also gone hard on law and order and the lead up to it, it's rolled out the military style boot camps, you know, the announcement that police we're going to put more police on the beat. It's just the kind of stuff that the National Party faithful like.
They like to see the police. They don't have much sympathy for the kind of ins and outs of whether or not we should be going tough on the crimson or not. That kind of stuff. It's all very appealing to them. And that stuff has all happened in the lead up to the conference, so they will be going and they're feeling pretty good about what has happened. And then of course there's Sam and Brown with his Potholes task forces. He's put that out so it's all kind
of roads, law and order and tax cuts. Is all a good diet for a National Party member really, so they'll be pretty happy with what they've seen in that regard.
And how would you describe the current state of the party, you know, compared to when National was in opposition, it was a pretty tumultuous six years for them.
Yes, well there of course a lot happier now. Those are not good times and they do like to be in governments, so they will be a lot happier than that. I would say the party will be in pretty good appetite. They've been pretty disciplined by and large, and in their instances where there have been shortcomings, Christopher Luxen has dealt with them pretty quickly, so they'll be pretty happy while
they're in government. The only question mark that some of the members might have is around National's own polling, so they're kind of used to the time they were. Possibly the happiest was in the Key era when National was regularly polling in the mid forties, even high forties, and
we're very much the dominant party. Sylvia would the party president and the lead up to the conference, has said that the aim of the National Party should always be to be in the mid forties, and she would like to see them get back to that position and be less reliant or at least be stronger up against any
coalition partners they might have. I think they would see their coalition agreement as a necessary evil rather than a permanent feature for them basically, So they will be hoping that National can rally it's polling back up at least above forty mark and into the mid forties. So I would say that that is kind of what the underlying hopes would be and expectations actually of the National Party members.
That kind of raises the question of whether that is almost nostalgic and whether MMP has evolved to the point whether smaller parties will keep holding their own because so FA and New Zealand First have held up. But there will be questions around that, around whether or not National has any way of bumping up their polling back over the forty mark.
And is that's an issue of National getting the cut through to stand out and make their mark against the likes of you know, Act in particular, it seems to be generating a lot of headlines.
Yeah, it's hard to see how they would do it. Without cannibalizing their coalition partners, and to some extent, I don't think they would necessarily think that was bad. They would like them to be a bit weaker probably. I would suspect the members would rather have a clean National
Act coalition rather than involve New Zealand. First. There's a lot of big blood there, and yeah, the question is how they do it, and especially how they do it with without upsetting the coalition basically, so they've all got
kind of codes of behavior and stuff like that. As the election starts to learn closer, we'll see the parties start to differentiate themselves a bit more so at the moment, Latson has been treading pretty carefully and just kind of trying to distance National as much as possible from the coalition partners' policies that are quite controversial, which they have agreed to kind of support but don't necessarily want to
advocate too much. And a lot of those will be in the race area around kind of Mariya Schuesler ex Tretty Principal's bill. But their question is how they do And I had it actually expected National to be holding a little bit more strongly and the last one we saw Luxeon tick up as preferred PM, purely by a virtue of being in government, and they have been fairly active. They have done things that they said they would do, and at some point they will be hoping they get the rewards for that.
Christopher Luxen and Nikola Willis, how do you think they are performing in their respective roles?
Yeah, fairly well. Actually, I think Luckson has stepped up fairly well. He's pretty good in the foreign affairs area. He's kept the coalition running smoothly, and I think his action plan kind of approach works because it makes it look like they're doing a lot, and they actually are kind of doing a fair bit, whether people like it or not. I mean, his approaches worked to hold that
kind of coalition together. Doesn't overreact when one of the coalition partners does something that he might not necessarily like.
Has he spoken to Winston Peter's about the comments and maybe today about Nazi Germany.
No, I haven't had a chance to do so. But that's not what I would say. I don't think that is the way that I would phrase it at all. Calling on people from all political parties to maintain the civility in our politics and I don't think extreme language on either side from any particular party is actually helpful or necessary.
And he's also proven recently in the Health New Zealand situation that where there is a trouble potentially brewing, he gets in there himself kind of thing to make sure that everything's tickety bo. So he really revealed this week that he is taking part in those regular meetings with kind of Health New Zealand, the Finance Minister and the Health Minister and all that, just to keep an eye on how Health New Zealand's tracking. And I would say he'll stay in there until that's kind of all resolved.
He likes to be on top of those kind of things. Nikola Willis is a very impressive politician. She's very good at selling National's case, she's good at speaking. I think she's a pretty solid finance minister. So I think both of those two are probably earning their keep at the moment. Lucks it's made a few clubs. They won't matter to the National Party membership really, and he would possibly see them as learning things along the way.
And are there any other ministers that stand out for you as top performers in this government?
They're very obvious. I mean I would put Willis in that top list. Simian Brown is consistently very good. Chris Bishop also very good. He's balancing his very heavy portfolio with his more strategic role as Leader of the House and that kind of strategy guy within national He's also pretty impressive. Eric Stanford has been pretty impressive in education, immigration, and over the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in
State care recently she's taken the charge on that. I think in terms of the more visible ones, Muchure is pretty well suited to his portfolios of police and emergency management. He gets out there on the ground the moment emergency situation kind of strikes and moves pretty quickly to get that inquiry up and running over the Wide Isle River recently.
So they're probably the top performers. There's other ones who are doing pretty well in their portfolios, basically the top four or five as their top performers, so as you
would hope and expect. In terms of the lower down run, Shane Retti is still under a bit of a test, especially in regards to his handling around health New Zealand and his ability to deal with not only the kind of health system and clinical side of being the health minister, but also the financial side and the political side of it. So I wouldn't say he's good or bad at the moment, but he's in a test period.
Do you think that healthcare is a weakness for national given the absolute strain the system is under at the moment and shamee Retty as you say, sort of being in a test period? Or does Christopher Luxen, in the fact that he has sort of taken quite hands on approaching that area, does that kind of compensate for that.
I mean, it's all a kind of murky at the moment, and it's not quite sure who has fluffed up and where, which is why I've put Rety in a test pattern rather than blaming anyone. So I don't know if it's
becoming an isses. So the most important thing is for them to look like they're in control of it, which is, you know, if they can assure people that they have it in hand and they're in control and the whole health system isn't going to crash around, We're not going to run out of money and all that stuff, then I think they'll be fine. I mean, where people see the health systems when they actually turn up the hospitals and the doctors and stuff. So that is kind of
where it comes to the crunch. I mean, health is a problem for every single government because it's a bottomless pit and there are always troubles with money, there always troubles with the workforce, and flash points come up and then they go, and it's more a matter of being able to reassure people that you're kind of in control. And I don't think health is an issue for them
at the moment. No, It's just a big topic which will come up throughout the term and it's something that you have to manage very carefully.
Politically, the party used to leak frequently in opposition. How have they managed to turn that around? What's the discipline like?
Well, that was the result of an existential crisis that they had after the twenty twenty election when they did not fare very well at all and their former Prime Minister John Key went down and tour strips off them and told them that if they didn't stop leaking, they would be forevermore. The party and opposition.
Leadership, changes, missteps, disunity, leaks and mixed messaging in national put them off us. I know it sounds harsh, but it's true. If you can't quit your leaking, here's a clue, quit the party here.
They have then subsequently realized that John Key was right and if they leaked, they lost, and also the change of leadership in the end of it all and Christopher Luxin's iron fist over the caucus. But to be fair, rather than Luxelin's fist, good polling and the sniff of success tends to exert strong disciplinary forces on a caucus, and as long as the polling is good, that remains the way because they do not want to throw it all away again and.
Clear, I feel like I couldn't have you as a guest on the podcast without asking you about the cook straight fairies. Do you think that issue is hurting the party at all or you know, where would you put that issue in terms of national's priorities.
I think that that issue is the one that will test I mean, you're more the expert on the fairies, then may I have to be honest, But politically I think that that's a test of judgment. Calls by Nikola Willis, So when we see what they end up doing about the fairies is when we'll be able to cast a judgment on whether or not they have mishandled that or not, and how much it enter costing the text payer and
how much of that is wasted spending. So I'm not going to really comment on it before then because you're the expert.
So it's such a long long wait for that announcement of what they're going to do with the fairies. Well, look to run things off clear. Are you expecting a triumphant atmosphere over the weekend. What are your expectations of this conference?
I think it will be content rather than triumphant as such because of the nature of the coalition agreement. It will be contented because they of course back in government, but they will be the members will be very curious to find out kind of what happens next for the National Party and how National kind of makes its own
space and the coalition agreement. Without giving away too much, I'll be quite interested to see if there's anything that the members are concerned about in terms of what the concessions that they have made for those coalition partners and whether there is any concern about that or whether they are just except that that's what had to be done
to get into government. So Yeah, I'll be hoping there'll be some indication of which areas have disquieted the members in terms of the games they've given to the other parties and those coalition agreements.
Thanks for joining us.
Clear.
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at inzidherld dot co dot inzid. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and sound engineer Pattifox. I'm Georgina Campbell. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines.