Kioda.
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast.
Presented by the New Zealand Herald.
It's all rain and no shine this week across the country. Warm tropical air sitting north of New Zealand has brought with it thunderstorms and rain warnings for Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island and the Corimandal Peninsula. Crews have already been working on clearing slips along State Highway to between or Portucky and Gisbon. So what is the outlook for this week and when will Mother Nature give us all a break?
Today on the Front Page, Newer Principal Scientist Chris Brandolino is with us to take us through what to expect and when we might be able to put the sheets on the line. First off, is what is driving this stormy where the New Zealand is experiencing at the moment moisture.
We're getting tropical moisture. There's a tropical low well to our north over north and west of New Caledonia in the tropics right and that is going to move south. That low it's disorganized, but what it has with it is a lot of moisture from the tropics now separate to that, there's a another low. There's a separate low over the Tasman Sea. So the two are going to
work together to provide us this really wet period. We've already seen the rain and the wind, but that's really going to increase and should reach its apex sometime during the day on Thursday or Wednesday, I beg your pardon, perhaps even into early Thursday for some.
Right, So how's it looking at the for the rest of the wake for the country?
Yeah, so look, I think going kind of step by step. So when we're trying to understand what's going to happen with the weather in this case, let's say rainfall, what we're doing is we're looking looking at modeling. So modeling tries to tell us meteorologists what the atmosphere is going to be like in a day, an hour, and a week. So we can actually look at what's called scenarios. So we have in house this model called New Zealand Ensemble System.
There's eighteen scenarios eighteen and we can look at those scenarios and try to understand what are the outcomes that are on the table, what are the possibilities to consider and if those eighteen outcomes start to look more similar than dissimilar, that gives us some confidence that what is being shown or what is most likely to happen, will happen. And then we can take those eighteen outcomes and we can say, right, here is a kind of a low
end scenario. We'll call it a dry scenario, and here's the middle of the road scenario, and here is a wet scenario, kind of a worst case scenario. So you can look at three scenarios, and that's really helpful because it gives people an idea, Well, if things got really gnarly and nasty, what could that look like? Or hey, what if things actually settled down and wasn't so bad. Maybe as the worst case scenario, kind of a low
end scenario, what does that look like? And when you look at that sort of middle of the road scenario or the higher end scenario, places like the Coramandal, places like Eastern Northland, places like Bay of Plenty, Tadasaiti, Gisbon. Those areas have the highest risk for seeing some really heavy rainfall. We're talking one hundred to maybe even two hundred millimeters of rain and a pretty short period of time. And Northland. As you know, we had the flooding over
the weekend on Sunday. So the concern there is that you already had flooding, now you're gonna get more rain. That could be kind of a that unfortunately, could be a situation where flooding it occurs when normally it wouldn't simply because the ground is so wet.
Is that a recipe for slips as well?
It is exactly. Yeah, So oftentimes when the ground becomes really saturated, it becomes quite heavy and things could peel off and you get things falling from side the cliffs and higher elevation. So that's a really good point. Yeah, things like landslips, those kind of go part and parcel with the heavy rainfall. And with that heavy rainfall, the risk of flooding obviously becomes a real concern. As I mentioned, So we can look at where the potential of river
flooding is most likely. So if you take the rainfall forecast and assuming that's reasonably accurate it's not way off, you can then put it into a river flow model and say, right, where are the flows likely to be, say above average or extremely high. And when you get into that extremely high category that is where river flooding becomes most likely, So places like Northland, the Coremandel Bay of Plenty, those are the areas worth watching for the
river flooding. Other areas, I'm sure are candidates, but in terms of the highest risk likely in those areas, and that's where METS are us our friends at MET Service, and that's where they have those weather warnings. So obviously you want to stay on top of the warnings because those are the areas that are going to be of greatest risk for significant impacts such as the rain, but also the wind wind coming from the east, that's kind of an unusual wind direction. You combine in an usual
wind direction with an extended period. We're talking twelve twenty four hours of wing GUS is sixty seventy and during the day on Wednesday could approach eighty ninety or one hundred kilometers per hour on wet soils. That does increase or elevate the odds for things like tree damage and power cuts, and we've already seen some of that.
In terms of when we should see the worst of it and when we should be on the other side of it, is it really looking at Wednesday or tomorrow here.
I think by Thursday morning we'll start to see some significant improvement for probably much of the country, much of the North Island. Keep in mind this is chiefly a North Island event. It is worth watching as look at some of the maps here. We will have to keep an eye on the eastern South Island. It is possible that they could see some heavy rain later on Thursday, so it's worth mentioning that. But I think once we get into Thursday afternoon we will start to see the
certainly the rain go away. It's probably gonna remain a bit blustery, probably unfortunately for much of Thursday. I know we have a long weekend coming up for the Upper North Island Auckland anniversary and people are hoping for some good weather. Unfortunately that doesn't look to be the case. But we can maybe bookmark that and circle back to
that if you want in a minute or two. But regarding this weather right now or the upcoming weather, I really think it's Wednesday into Wednesday night and too early Thursday, with the top of the country i e. Northland getting the worst weather first, and areas like Bay have plenty. Tadasa di Gisban that coming a bit later. But that also means Northland will likely say, see some improvement earlier because their weather will go downhill earlier as well.
No, No, Chris, I wanted to talk about anniversary weekend. Now I tell you now, I mean, I suppose a lot of people have those bad memories from the Animalsary Day, floods, cyclone, Gabrielle. I mean, is this just what we're having to get used to at this time of year?
As we all know, bad weather happens all the time.
You know.
When I say all the time, I mean it isn't like, oh my gosh, we haven't seen this in five years. Bad weather happens, you know, It's part of life. But what I can say is that when we get these big events, these higher end events, it is congruent with our expectations of a warming climate. What do I mean by that when our planet our temperature warms. What that does is that when you take a big weather event, which have always happened. But what climate change does. It
makes three things. It makes the big weather event or the extreme weather event a more likely to happen. B it makes those events more frequent, and C it makes those big weather or extreme weather events more well extreme. So that is what is happening. And so when we get these weather events, if this same weather event were to occur fifty years from now, unfortunately, it's likely to produce even bigger impacts, more rain and things like that.
So big weather events have always happened, but I think because of climate change, what we're seeing is that they tend to happen more frequently. That tend to happen, they tend to be more likely to occur, and when they do occur, they can run the risk of being even more extreme than they say. We're fifty years ago or one hundred years ago.
So when people think of summer that I think of beach days and hanging your sheets out on the line and having them dry and five minutes of that kind of thing. I mean, when do you think, do you think summer is over in that respect?
Gosh, oh no, no, no, no, summer is not. We're just getting started now. Look we're in mid January here, so we still have a good you know, ten days before the end of January, and we got all feb which I know is kind of a short month. There's no mistaking that. But keep in mind, here's a good thing about being an island nation. An island nation, we're surrounded by water. Right, here's a good thing. Our ocean temperatures reach their apex, reach their highest typically in about
early mid February. Well, why is that a big deal? Because that helps to keep us warmer a bit longer. So as we go into March, our ocean temperatures are really quite warm still, they're coming off, you know, they're not too far removed from when they're at their highest, and as a consequence, that has an upward influence on our air temperatures. What am I saying? March can often be an extension of summer. You know, Yeah, the days are a bit shorter, but you can get some really
warm temperature still in some really nice weather. So summer is not over now. It may feel like it. This weekend. I'm not gonna kid you there. This weekend is gonna be an apple how Doways say this. I want to keep it polite here. It's not gonna be pleasant Saturday. If look for those, whether it's a long weekend for you or not, Saturday looks absolutely it'll feel autumnal it's
gonna feel like autumn. There's gonna be strong, gusty southwest winds, which is a cold winden direction, and this time of the year, when you get a chilly air in the middle of summer, the sun angle is still quite strong, as we know. That creates an environment where we get these really kind of gusty showers and thunderstorms. So I'm expecting on Saturday there is going to be across much of the North Island, especially the hours, thunderstorms, maybe even
some hail. That is likely they persist into Sunday as well. So it's not looking good. I think Monday, the actual anniversary, maybe we can salvage it. Maybe one out of three is okay. So if you're looking to enjoy the weekend, it's gonna be chilly everywhere, unusually cool, and we're talking chili for Midsummer, okay, We're not talking like winter chill,
though sudden they think it feels like it. I think if you're looking to find the best weather this weekend, where to go for that, it might actually be the top of the South Island or maybe the parts of Otago. They may sneak in a pretty good weekend, but those areas too are gonna be chilly now. It won't last forever. I think as we get into next week, we're likely to see a change in the weather pattern. Things will moderate.
But I do think for those who are in the South Island or maybe going to do some holiday making in the South Island, as we get toward the end of January into early February, they're like they see some chillier days. I think the South Island is going to have days where it's chillier than usual, more of those
days than say the North Island. And I'm pretty confident if we go farther out, if you want to talk about February, I do think February is shaping up to be more of a potentially a warmer month than what the last say, ten days of January are going to give us. I e that cold snap I just talked about. I do think we'll get into some warmer weather again. So this is no, the summer is not over, that is the short answer. I do think there's plenty more
summer to come. But you know, we still have to keep our eyes to the north because anytime we get weather coming from the north, that is when we get these flooding events. That increases the odds or these flooding events. The north has all the moisture. That's all that moisture is, and that is fuel for heavy rain.
Does all of this have anything to do with La Nania?
Well done? Yeah, you've done your homework, so yes it does.
I've spoken to you enough to know who what is?
Yeah. So look for those who don't know what is, Laanini is a climate driver. So you may be thinking, what the heck's a climate driver? Basically a climate driver when we're doing these long range outlooks, you know, for the next two months, the next three months, and that that sort of thing we want to what we what we're trying to do is first things first, who's going
to be driving Mother Nature's car. If you know who's driving Mother Nature's car, at least have a good idea, right, then you're in good position to understand what the themes are going to be like two months, three months. Again, we're talking themes. It's not a weather forecast, and La Nini is one of them. Linina is a climate driver, and history tells us when we have La Nina, here's what happens. We tend to get increased chances for lows
coming from the north. Tick. That's what we're seeing today, tomorrow and through early Thursday, a low coming from the north. We tend to get more easterlies and we're going to be seeing that the next couple of days. Tick. It doesn't mean that happens all the time. It just means you get less of those westerly winds, which is what we typically see. You get a reduction of those, and you get an increase of easterly winds and visitors from
the north. So an answer to your question, the short answer is yes, this is consistent and congruent with what we would expect with li Nina being at the steering wheel of Mother Nature's car. Now Linin is actually going away, it all takes some time for the weather to catch up to Linina going away. These climate drivers tend to have a long memory. They tend to you tend to get Linina like weather patterns even when Linina is officially or formally sort of in the rearview mirror or gone.
So I do think we still have to keep our eyes to the north for these big weather, big rain makers right through the autumn season. But here's a little pro tip. Here's some Here's here's some behind the curtain speak as we go into winter, so we're going way out there and to spring. So later this year, you know, six seven, eight, and nine months from now, it looks like El Nino may be coming to the party, and it looks like El Nino maybe become a climate driver.
What that looks like and what that means, we'll have to wait and see. But just a bit of a heads up. If that were to occur, that would obviously mean obviously mean different weather patterns than what is consistent with La Nina. If that makes sense, we'll.
Have to speak about Nina's mate, Nino later this year.
Brush your Spanish, Chris, if you had to describe this summer's weather sofar, how would you describe it in a sentence?
Mixed? There's a word, oh you, I'll cut it down to one word. I would Yeah. Look, I know that's kind of a you know, a bit of a cop out potentially, but I mean, let's do a quick let's do a quick, quick recap. Okay, December was very warm. I mean, I'll just sheut to my colleague chester Chester. What was December? The December was that unusually? I was in a usually warm month? Was it? I? Was in the twenties. Yeah, I beg your party, but it was in the top twenty five or top thirty, whatever it was.
So it was unusually warm December, so I mean, I feel like warmth. That was you know that happened. We had those really hot temperatures in the eastern part of both islands with those windy conditions, and then we had, you know, we had some pretty cold temperatures across the South Island after New Year's so it has been mixed. Now we're dealing with this big rainfall across the country, so it has been mixed. I do think, I do
think somewhere is not over with. As I said before, Yes, it'll feel like it this weekend for Auckland Anniversary weekend, and it will feel like it at times for the South Island for the end of the month. But I think there's more summer to come, and I feel confident about that. Look, I'm a husband, I'm a father, and I'm a meteorologist, so I'm used to being wrong. But we'll see how we go.
Well, I won't pack away my bag each blanket just yet.
No, don't do that. That'd be silly. You'd be missing out there'd be some, especially for the North I think the North Island probably, Yeah, twenty seventh warmest, my colleague Chester, thank you for that. So you know, when you know, we think of one hundred and ten Decembers, twenty said
with warmest, and that means something. But look, if you're in the North Island, I think you have the best chances for seeing more persistent summer type weather or you know, quick essential summer like weather, if that makes sense.
Thanks for joining us, Chris.
Thanks for having me. I enjoy coming on the program.
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzidhrald dot co dot enz. The Front Page is hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer.
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