Kilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is off to the United States this week. The world's largest economy and our second biggest trading partner, is therefore what's described as DC's diplomatic super Bowl, where dozens of foreign leaders will descend upon Washington for the NATO summer. A number of bilaterals with other NATO leaders is on the cards, as well as a spattering of
sideline meetings with top US politicians. Today on the front Page, former NZ Ambassador to the US Tim Grocer is with us to discuss how important tapping into the US market is and what movers and shakers Luxon will shake hands with. Tim. It's an intriguing time for Christopher Lackson's trip to the US, isn't it, given both what's happening with the US and European politics as well.
Yeah.
Intriguing in the sense of that old political cliche from China centuries ago. May you live in interesting times? Is the word interesting doesn't necessarily mean positive, So we are living in very interesting times, and I think it gives the Prime Minister an ideal opportunity to actually take the
pulse himself. I mean, all very well, people like me, you've been involved in foreign policy briefing as the Prime Minister in Wellington, but it's quite another matter to actually get there at the highest level of international politics and take the temperature himself. So I'm very very pleased he's got this opportunity. Actually, there's a number of related themes
running through this visit, in the opportunities he has. So first of all, the summit itself takes place against the background of the essentially, as I read stalemate in Ukraine and the end of this, I think fantasy that the Ukrainians with the aid of the nature plus countries including US, all of which are totally support Of course I support this, but in my opinion, it was always a fantasy on steroids to think you could drive the last Russian soldier
out of the entire of Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas region, and then suddenly the Russians would stop fighting and that would be all nice. I think it is now clear that that was always the fantasy. It's now dead as a reality, and I think the meeting itself, while it will never talk as frankly as as I'm talking in public, but there'll be a great deal of serious discussion going on in the martyrs. Don't confuse what I'm saying with lack of support. I'm talking about reality
as opposed to wishful thinking. The second element in this will, of course, the opportunity not just to meet a range of leaders of the most important Western countries. Western in the political sense not no longer really a geographic term, and that includes of course the new British Prime Minister, which is an important person to New Zealand, always has
been and always will be. But it'll be also interesting to see what their private take on the future is considering what is going on in the biggest political theater of all, which is the US presidential election, and who knows what is going to happen in the next few days. But you read the same things that I read the Economist, the New York Times saying it is time to recognize reality. President Biden would be eighty six at the end of his office. And then you've also read all the opposing
arguments from the Biden camp. But if it goes on in this state of uncertainty, leading up to the Democratic Party's convention on the twentieth of August. He's going to be able to sense what the other leaders are thinking. I've had a few of my political contacts from my days as ambassador in touch with me over the last
few days. It's clear that the odds of a Trump presidency have increased, and it's also very clear from what I'm being told that a number of the countries are quietly polishing up their credentials with Trump personalities because we may have to deal with this president again.
I guess whether we'll hear about it or not is the question. But I guess there'll be, no doubt there'll be a lot of chatter, especially in private, about what the potential return of Trump might mean for NATO in other countries.
None of what I'm talking about will emerge in public, un least the whole thing blows up.
Yeah, how big of a shadow will the return of Trump? Asked I guess over the whole summit.
Well, it must cast a shadow because of what he said when he was a president. So when he was president, I can't recall whether it was I think it was twenty seventeen. In his first year he went to Russia declared Putin was not a threat. The Russian had invaded Ukraine back in twenty fourteen, when they came into Crimea. I was literally detained in Moscow airport that weekend over the decision, which I totally agreed to withdraw me as
Trade minister immediately from Moscow after they invaded Crimea. But the decision to invade Crimea, I think is generally seen as a different order of threat to the later decision Putin took to invade western Ukraine. Now Trump went to Russia declared in public Putin was not a threat. Clearly the wrong call, And there he made this very very challenging statement about the sanctity of what is called Article five.
Article five of NATO is the central commitment that an attack on any one of the twenty seven or twenty eight are call NATO countries is an attack on us all and we will respond. So it's the core collective security commitment, and by a country mile, the United States is the most important enforcer of that commitment. So when the President of the United States makes that statement, you can imagine what that coused in terms of ri course, they.
Asked me that question. One of the presidents of a big country stood up said well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said no, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay, you got to pay your bills.
And I will never forget. There was a massive patch up job by NATO after that. I was ambassador in Washington and I remember going to a black tie dinner with hundreds of people, all the NATO plus ambassadors at Stockenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, other leaders all got up and said, there's no questioning of the strength of our commitment.
And then what I remember is that then Vice President Hence got up and said made the same speech, and there was definitely silence because everybody is thinking, mister vice president, it really doesn't matter what you say if your president and your boss has said something different. So if you ask me, is this going to cause concern? Unquestionably?
Well, you were the ambassador in Washington during Trump's first years. Hey, what should our government be doing to prepare for another Trump term?
We should be doing exactly what I think the government is doing, which is maintained absolutely the possible relationships with the current Democratic administration while maintaining avenues that we can open up with a second Trump presidency if necessary. People who are not involved in diplomacy don't necessarily understand the
core point here. You deal with what you have. Whatever people's opinions on mister Trump might or might not be, it will be essential for the New Zealand government if he becomes the president again, to maintain as good and as correct a relationship with the presidency as possible because this is fundamentally still the most important country in the world.
There's nothing that can be done right now. It's just mentally prepare yourself for what could be another very challenging and unorthodox presidency.
While Christopher Luxon is over there, it's highly doubtful that he'll be able to get a meeting with Joe Biden or in fact Donald Trump, right, but he is going to be meeting with some Republican and Democratic politicians while over there, I understand there could be meetings with the likes of Ted Cruz, John orsof Gavin Newsom, just to name a few. How important are these meetings?
Very important? Ted Cruz, as you know, stood against Donald Trump for the candidacy in the first place, but he remains a very, very influential Republican on the right of the Republican Party, Gavin Newsom. From every possible angle, he seems like the rising star of the next generation of Democratic Party leaders and often mentioned should mister Biden finally decide not to proceed with his candidate over the next
six weeks leading up to the Democratic Party convention. While I suppose the conventional second choice would be the vice president, he's certainly the next name in everybody's dance list.
While also at the NATO summit, Luxelm will be meeting with his Australian, Japanese and Korean counterparts as what's been called the Indo Pacific four. It's the third time this meeting has taken place. How significant is this alliance.
Well, it's very significant. And the government, along with the predecessor Labor government led by mister Hipkins, is exploring what relationship we have not with the core of this that's this jargon called Tier one and Tier two, but some type of partnership. Look, the fundamental reality here is that involves Australia and one New Zealand has an independent foreign policy. At the end of the day, the single most important
country by a mile to US is Australia. So I think it's entirely sensible what both the previous and the current government did in exploring some type of relationship. I mean, this is well short of the heavy duty defense side of this relationship, but essential that we just keep in touch with these people.
Will you bring up defense, because a main issue or big defense issue for New Zealand and in fact Australia at the moment is around China, our relationship with China and other superpowers and the tensions between them and our other allies.
Orcus as an agreement clearly aimed at China, our major trading partner.
We're making very strong ruises that they're going to join it.
We think that's a major shift in foreign policy.
Would you go to the public to get their approval? Again, it's just way too premature. I know this isn't necessarily an Aucus convention per se, but do you think that could be a side discussion there?
Oh, it's central to the whole issue. I mean, these can't be divorced and our people. I've said in many speeches and many comments on this New Zealand must maintain as good a relationship with the two superfars as possible and do whatever we can to avoid being forced to make finally a choice. Now, I've used the old cliche in the past about if you want to be in the circus, you have to be able to ride two
horses at once. That's never easy. And if you can use the visual metaphor of it is, if the two horses part company on crucial issues, we may be forced to make a choice, but we should delay that as far as we possibly can, because China is way, way more important to employment and to our economy than the United States. It's about three or four times as large a market for New Zealand as is the United States. And yet the United States we have this history which
has many, many complex and positive elements to it. The dilemma that we face is not a dilemma that little New Zealand faces. It's a dilemma that every country in the world that has important economic relationships with China faces. And I was very much struck by what Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, said in Beijing about five months ago. I think when he was the first governor of any American state to visit Beijing and meet the president of China.
President she his statements on China and California's unwillingness to follow this decoupling from China strategy could have been a statement that New Zealand could have made. Honestly, So, while it's a huge problem, it's not at all a New Zealand problem. This is a global problem as these two superpowers strive to find a modus for vendi between the two of them, and our problem is shared by just about everybody.
We often hear commentators make a big deal about just what you're saying, us being caught in the middle of between the West in quotation marks and China from your ex experience as an ambassador, is it really as bad as that?
It gets tough at times when extreme statements are made by one side or the other. Yes, it gets tough, But this is what politics is for. And we've just got to be creative, and we have been creative in the past, and I'm sure we've got very good people in the field that we will continue to naborate as best we can. It's, as I said, Muzine doesn't have
a particular problem. This is something that the world has and fortunately there are clear signs in the last six months of the sharp difficulties between Australia and China being repaired. And then while the Foreign Minister has done I think an outstanding job and the tension seemed to be the motion. So the main point is when uzine and just think about this is not to think this is particularly a problem for MW Zealand. No, no, it's a problem for everybody.
It seems like the immenseness of the u US economy isn't lost on Luxon. He's made a point of saying it's the largest economy in the world, our second biggest trading partner, and even pinpointed California as being the fifth biggest economy in the world if it were a country. How vital is it for New Zealand to tap into this market and essentially have Christopher Luxon as our number one salesman.
Well, I mean it's obviously very, very important, and this is not to try and avoid the issue. It's just remember that as an export market, China was about three times as important to New Zealand. So the balancing act must continue. But of course the United States is hugely important to us in all their mentions, and not just
to be measured in terms of proved exports either. I mean, we have many other interests in the economic sphere with the United States, in terms of energy cooperation, a whole range of issues that we work so closely with the United States that we do not do that with China to the same extent because of the linkages. To quote John Key's famous statement of this issue, He's asked to compare the relationship New Zealand has with China with that
of the United States. Said, well, with China, they buy stuff, we sell stuff. With the United States, it's a little more complicated.
And tim what would success look like for Luxon at the end of this summer. Does he necessarily need to bring home some sort of deal or announcement to make it work or are those backroom kind of meetings and talks with other counterparts and of course other US politicians. Is that really what counts here?
Absolutely the latter. I'm not involved in the planning, so there maybe some specific initiatives we'll hear about when and if they are completed. But the real issue here is in terms of his relationships with other leaders, their perception of New Zealand through their meetings with our most important political leader. So that's what this is really about.
Thanks for joining us, Tim. That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzed Herald dot co dot z. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.