Hilda.
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. After decades of tyrannical rule and thirteen years of civil war, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen. After rebels rapidly closed in on the capital of Damascus. President Bashah al Assad and his family fled the country and are reportedly now in Moscow. It's cleared the way for rebel group Hayata
Tarier al Sham to take control of the country. Global powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation. Today on the Front Page, University of Otago's Robert Patman joins us to discuss the significance of this change and what's.
Next the embattled nation. Robert, can you start by giving us, I guess the briefest overview you can about the Assad regime.
Well, the Issad regime has been in place for twenty four years, and for thirteen of the last twenty four years there's been civil war. In twenty eleven, the Assad regime came very close to being toppled following what was called the Arab Spring. There was lots of peaceful protesters against the Assad dictatorship in Syria in twenty eleven. The regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters and also
seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia. And in the intervening period, the Assad regime had steadily got the upper hand in the civil war and had captured most of the major cities, although the northern part of Syria
remained under rebel control. And so that took us to about a week ago when suddenly the rebels, who had been training in the part of Syria where they were located, were launched a lightning offensive that caught the Regime of God and captured Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria. And that began a sort of the beginning of knocking down a row of dominoes as the rebels advanced towards Damascus. And as they like to say, the rest is history has said, regime was overthrown over the weekend.
What do we know about the Hayat Tarid al Shalam rebels who have taken control of the country, What do they stand for or believe?
Well, that's a good question, because there is evidence of considerable evolution. Originally those rebels had some sort of affiliational links with our kaider, but they've subsequently distanced themselves from those extremist sort of elements. And it's been a very broad coalition, because it should be pointed out that it's not just IHT, but it's also rebels that had been formally linked to support from the United States Free Syrian rebels,
for example. And it's this broad coalition that came together and has cooperated successfully against Hassad's army. One of the reasons for the success of the rebels not only was this a carefully planned operation, not only did it maximize the clout of all the rebels, but all the armed rebel groups, whereas before they had been competing with each other while in opposition to Assad. So that was a
qualitive difference. But in addition, the two biggest supporters of the Asad regime, both Iran and Russia, have been severely weakened by involvement in conflicts elsewhere. Iran's ability to support the Asad regime has been weakened by the fact that its proxy has Bulla has received substantial collateral damage, so to speak, in its conflict with Israel, and Syria itself
has been targeted for air strikes by Israel. And in addition, Russia, which has played a key role in ASAD winning Aleppo in two thousand and six through air strikes amongst other things, Russia finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a position like twenty sixteen where it could respond rapidly to
support an ally. Like I said, and so in short, I think it's a combination of careful coordination amongst all the rebel armed groups and also external factors which meant that the key backers of Assad's regime were weakened, and so that presented a window of opportunity for the rebels.
Well, the rebel leaders are now working with Asad's Prime minister currently on a managed transition, But do they actually have a leader that they'll put up instead?
Yes, I think they do have a leadership. And the trouble with the current situation Chelsea is it's very fluid. I was hearing some disquieting reports this morning, for example, that Israel may have launched two air strikes on Damascus, and also seen to be moving into an area beyond the Golan Heats. For our listeners, the Golan Heats was seized by Israel in nineteen sixty seven during the so
called Six Day War. They've never relinquished that Syrian territory, and they now seem to be encroaching on further Syrian territory or as they put it, security reasons. But you know, this seems very premature, given the fact that Syria hasn't yet got a chance to establish a post assad government and already external actors are interfering in its domestic affairs. This seems extremely troublesome.
Some residents in Hamma are now celebrating the rebel takeover. Thank God. We've been waiting for this da for a long time, and we're all coming out on the street. This is the happiest d for us. We were afreid to go out at night. We've been waiting for this.
Feelings that can't be described. It's been fifty years we've been suffering injustice and crime and oppression. This is a historic moment, a priceless moment.
Well, I've seen videos and reports out of Damascus and it seems like there's a lot of joy about the end of the asserted regime. Notably, one of the presidential palaces has been looted of all of its luxury goods. Do you think it's fair to say that people are actually quite happy about this.
I think across the board, it should never be forgotten that the Asad regime represented a sect called the Alo Whites, which were a branch of the Shea community in Syria. They represented about it's very difficult to put a precise figure on it, between fifteen and seventeen percent of the population. They were always too weak, so without external support, it was always likely that as Sad regime will collapse, and
that's what's happened essentially. And I think there's enormous joy across the political divide in Syria because it's recognized that Asad's regime, I mean, the Asad family have been in power for fifty four years, and one of the first things the rebels did was release all political prisoners, and so that's one a lot of goodwill. I think the current leadership of THEIHD seem to be quite pragmatic, and I think the international community must give the rebels a chance.
My view is that the Biden administration and the Western world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of the rebels and give them a chance to establish a post a Sad democratic Syria. In other words, Syria's subject at the moment to sanctions because of the behavior of the ASAD dictatorship. I think the international community should create a pathway or indicate a pathway by which those sanctions
could be lifted. And one pathway would be to say to the new transitional leaders, could you please put in place arrangements for a free and democratic Syria. If they do that, they should be supported by the removal sanctions. It's in our interest liberal democracies throughout the world is in our interest to see the transition towards a much
more representative government in Syria. And I'm a little bit concerned that some actors, such as the NEST and Yahoo government, seem to be prejudging what's going to come out of the post a Sad situation, and I think that's unfortunate.
Well, the group is considered a terrorist organization by many nations, but you've also got many welcoming the end of the Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary General calling it a historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future. Is there a tricky balance here for foreign powers to work with the group.
Well, that's what I've tried to suggest, a balance that is saying to the rebels that have overthrown a brutal dictatorship which most Western countries would welcome, saying to them, we fully support your verbal commitment to move towards democracy, and we will effectively remove the sanctions regime because at
the moment, Syria has been crippled by sanctions. So if you want Syria to move towards democracy, then I think it's important that you create a pathway in which the post are said, governing authorities can a series of milestones which, if they meet, the sanctions will be reduced. In other words, some incentives for the new leaders to move towards democracy, and I think that's sensible. It seems to me that this term terrorism is often banded about if you're opposing
a dictation. Remember the Asad family have been in power since nineteen seventy and to give an example of the sort of repression that went on in Syria, Basha Assad's father imprisoned someone for forty three years simply because that individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons. He did nothing else. If you choose to resist a dictatorship, there's no peaceful path there to resist it, So by
definition you're probably going to have to use force. And of course Asad depicted all of his opponents as terrorists, but that's because he gave no opportunity, peaceful opportunity to oppose his own regime. So we have to be very careful about using these terms terrors.
One of the big consequences of the Syrian conflict has, of course been the millions of refugees it has created. Twelve million people have been displaced over the last thirteen years alone, and over five million of them have fled overseas. We've seen many of them turn up in Europe and exacerbate the continent's refugee crisis and political backlash. What does the end of the Assad regime mean for those people who have fled? Is there going to be a path back for them? Do you think?
I hope so, particularly and here the UN and in particular the members of the UN Security Council, because after all, the UN is only as strong or as weak as its five permanent members of the Security Council allow it to be I hope there will be an international consensus on trying to establish post the transitional arrangements in Syria,
creating a pathway for representative government. If Syrians are convinced there will be no return of repression and there is a method of peacely transferring power, then I think many of them would like to return. New Zealand, of course, has absorbed about thirteen hundred Syrian refugees. I think there's about close to four hundred in Dunedin and alone, and they've settled and integrated very well into New Zealand society. But obviously they didn't come here by choice. They came
because they were Their government was their own worst enemy. Unfortunately, that is a reality for many people in the world that the the entity that abuses their rights the most is their governments. And of course, when you live in a country which is free, like New Zealand and where human rights are respected, we don't have to worry about things like that. But that's not the case for many
people in the world. And I suppose to answer your question, many Syrians would like to return if the international arrangements are in place and the national arrangements are in place in Syria for a post Assad democratic country, I think many people will be playing wait and see for the
moment to see how things pan out. After all, if you're living in New Zealand and you're originally from Syria, you probably won't relish going back to Syria until you can be pretty clear that there won't be a return to the sort of repression that had led people to leave the country they were born in in their first place. But my sense is there is enormous joy amongst Syrians
right across the political board. The Asad family had monopolized political power for fifty four years and were responsible for appalling acts against their own citizens. It shouldn't be forgotten that in twenty thirteen the Syrian regime used chemical weapons against their own population, and then, of course, the Russians stepped in to support the Assad regime and use the most brutal methods in bombing civilian positions in Aleppo in
twenty sixteen. So this is not only just a defeat for the Assaid regime, it's also a defeat for some of their authoritarian supporters, like mister Putin's regime. In Moscow and also the regime in Tehran.
As rebels entered the capital as Uran war miight or said present Assad left the country in what could spell the end of his twenty four year rule and the downfall of his plans five decade reigned. Well, several conflicting reports have emerged in last few hours on a side. So whereabout questions are being raised, where can this you in, president and go?
Well, of course, like you said before, Asad's regime is being propped up by the likes of Russia and Iran, and it has done so for the last decade. How does this departure shake up relations in the regime, particularly when you consider all those tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
At the moment, it's very difficult to predict. Because I was very struck by the fact that mister Biden in a press conference was claiming credit by supporting Israel, the enemies of Israel had been weakened, and that in turn meant that the rebels could succeed in Syria. But what was missing from that account was that America has actually by supporting Neshnya, who's relentless bombardment of Gaza and its invasion of Lebanon has actually contributed to even more instability
in the region. In particular, neither Israel under Mestergnieknyahu or the United States seem to be dealing with the root cause of instability in the Middle East, which is the refusal to acknowledge the right of self political self determination for the Palestinian people. It's difficult to predict how the departure of the Assad regime will affect the dynamics of the Middle East. I very much hope, and I think
this is probably the same for many Syrian citizens. I would think what emerges from the horror of the Assad regime is a transition to a democrat, a peaceful, democratic country, and that would be wonderful. Of course, that wouldn't always be welcomed by many of Syria's neighbors, Saudi Arabia, which is an authoritarian regime, and indeed Iran, which is an authoritarian regime. So it remains to be seen. I think
it's too early to predict. Many of us a week ago wouldn't have predicted what happened in Syria, so I think we have to be a little bit humble when we look into our crystal ball predicting what will happen
after the fall of the Sad regime. I do think even the Biden administration and more realistically, the Trump administration, have to stay true to their policy in the Middle East of a two state solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem, and that to me is the key to removing some of the grievances and hatred that have festered this region for so long.
It wasn't even daylight in Germany before they took to the streets waving the distinctive green and black flag of the opposition. Thousands of Syrians live and work in Germany, Many, arriving in twenty and fifteen when then German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the borders to those fleeing oppression and war. They gathered on the streets of Bucharest, the Romanian capital, joy on their faces clear to see us. The news of President as that's all spread like wildfire.
Where does this leave Russia now that they've granted assad asylum, Because I would have thought that Putin would want to cut ties with him.
No, I think mister Putin, having put Russian troops into Syria and having lost Russian troops in Syria. Having spent a lot of money there, wouldn't want to be seen to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So he's granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad's family. I'm sure this won't be a rent free situation. I'm sure the riches of the Assad family will be used to
help facilitate that stay. But I think Putin probably decided on balance it was politically safer for him to at least be seen to be standing by the Assad family at a time when the regime which the Russians had supported was overthrown. The alternative was to disown Assad, but in doing so, Putin ran the risk of disowning his own policies for the last decade and a half.
Do you think Assad could attempt to return to power or does he know now that his goose is cooked.
No. I think it's over for the Asad family. Now we now know that not only is mister Putin a giving a political asylum to the Asad family, but it has also withdrawn from that naval base and withdrawn much of its military capabilities from Syria. So I think there's
no prospect of a comeback by President Assad. He's widely hated throughout the country, and if Syria does act on the rhetoric of the rebels and move towards the democracy, then it will be increasingly difficult for a sad reimpose and authoritarian regime.
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Thank you.
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.