Kyota.
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Emotional scenes in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families across Israel. Bus loads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange broken by US President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump and.
Other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a summit in Egypt. So could all of this bring lasting peace to the region? Today on the front page, University of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with us to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the historic dawn of a new Middle East. So, Robert, incredible scenes seeing the last twenty living hostages reunite with family members.
Tell me how has all this come about?
Well, it's come about in quite short order. Because you remember that when mister Trump first came to office for the second time in January this year, he told Natanni to finish the job. He said that on the campaign trail, But to his credit, he did oversee a cease fire in January of this year and put pressure on Neatni to accept it. But mister Netni who exited from the second phase of the ceasefire in March of this year without consequence, and that upset of many people looking in
or looking from abut file. Mister nen who had a choice by the second phase of the ceasefire that was started in January, he could accept all the remaining hostages and bringing it permanent into the war. He chose not to have the hostages at that stage and continue the war.
But since then a lot has happened, and the real catalyst, I think was Israel's attack on Kata in Doha in I think it was around about early September round about that period, and both Saudi Arabia and Katar and a number of other Arab countries Egypt, which are all important to the administration, I think basically read the right actor Trump and said this has got to stop because Kata had been involved in mediation efforts at the request of
Israel and the United States, and they were absolutely outraged by the fact that Israel without warning killed five Hamas officials in Doha and also a Qatari security official. And I think mister Trump was suddenly presented with tough choices he could continue to give mister Yahoo a blank check, or he could listen to countries like Katar, where America has its largest military base in the Middle East, and he decided, I think, to try to bring about a
peace settlement in light of that incident. So I do think the crucial catalyst for this was the Israeli attack on a close ally of the United States cut Art, and I think that I think they made it quite clear. Saudi Arabia and Katar said to mister Trump, you can't have your cake and eat it. You can't go on supporting Netinaho while he attacks us. So you're going to have to start exerting some leadership here. And the Americans have always had leverage in this situation.
Well, Trump has said that the long and painful nightmare is finally over, is it.
No? No, this is a well come step forward. Let's be quite clear, this situation didn't occur overnight. It's been two years in the making. Following the dreadful Hamas a terrorist attack on Israel, we then had mister Nilhu's campaign of mighty vengeance. Something like more than sixty seven thousand Palestinians have died, an intensive bombardment of gals that eighty percent of the Palestinians killed have been civilians, including around
twenty thousand children. So there's been enormous and unimaginable suffering. So to declare it over maybe premature. What we can see is that all sides have signed up to the first phase of the agreement, and the first phase involves all living Israeli hostages being released. That's happened. In return, Israel has released about two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including four hundred children. A key part of the first phase is
the unrestricted distribution of humanitarian aid. In Gaza, five hundred thousand Palestinians, according to the UN, are currently facing starvation. So the ceasefire could not come quick enough and it's welcome. Also, it's welcome the hostages have been released, and it's welcome that long last, we hope unrestricted distribution of food aid will occur.
How can we ensure that that actually happens.
Well, I think, first of all, mister Trump has put his name to it happening, so he's now got a stake having extended the brand, the Trump brand, if you want to put it that way, to peace, and I think many Arab countries which want a two state solution, as does much of the community, including the international community, including our country, believe that mister Trump is the person
to exercise leverage with mister Nian Yahoo. But it's going to be The reason I expressed caution at the outset Chelsea in response to your question, is that the easy part has been done, returning hostages, bringing a cease fire, telling the military to stop bombarding Gaza, and hopefully allowing trucks which have been waiting in the border laden with food to go in. The more difficult part is now
the future of Gaza. Under the agreement, Israel has to carry out a phased withdrawal in return for Hamas disarming. But here comes a particular problem. Hamas may be reluctant to disarm because it's given up its only form of leaver ridge, which is the hostages. Also, mister netn Yahoo has given no indication he will accept a Palestinian state. That's a problem because, and it's a huge omission. In the twenty point plan, there is no commit no explicit
commitment to the Palestinian right of political self determination. Are right by the way for all peoples under the UN Charter and this, you can see a potential stumbling block
occurring here. Now, I think countries like kata Egypt and Saudi Arabia have no illusions about the difficulty ahead, but I think they believe it's it's a calculated risk worth taking because if mister Trump on board, if mister netna Who starts digging in and refusing to withdraw his forces, then I think they calculate mister Trump will feel sufficiently invested to start leaning on Netta Yahu.
But it is Trump.
The only reason why netnya who will do that?
Is that what we're counting on here.
Oh yeah, I mean, you know, let's be quite clear, it's welcome that mister Trump has taken this step. Both the bidenmenstration and the Trump administration bear enormous responsibility for the fact that ninety two percent of all residential buildings have been destroyed in Gaza and about ninety percent of Palestines have been displaced. Without American power backing Israel, none
of this could happen. Four fifths of the munitions used in Gaza have been provided by the United States, So it's slightly ironic when mister Trump presents America as being you know the peacemaker this situation, both Israel and America bear, as well as Hamas, considerable responsibility for the carnage that's occurred. It's welcome, though, that mister Trump has decided that trajectory
can't continue. And I think another big sticking point in the second phase of this agreement, as well as whether mister Nick who can be persuaded to accept a Palestinian state without Hamas's involvement, Another sticking point will be the huge task of rebuilding Gaza. Now. Mister Trump said in his speech in Shake in Egypt Charma l Shake, he said that a number of wealthy Arab countries will be happy to support the rebuilding of Gaza. Well, I'm not
sure Israel. How does Israel feel about that? Because they're responsible, the IDEF is responsible for leveling Gaza, will they be comfortable about many of their neighbors rebuilding Gaza? That raises the question, shouldn't Israel? Shouldn't there be some accountability for what Israel has done? And just imagine how angry many Palestinians are once they get over this terrible ideal of not having enough food and dodging in the bullets and bombs.
Once their life becomes the new normal, then most of them haven't got a home to return too. So you've got a lot of potential sources of tension ahead. But yeah, I mean it's it's I think a lot will depend whether this piece can be sustained on whether mister Trump's attention can be sustained on the problem. I think one or two actors have signed up to this on the assumption either that the President's attention can be sustained because he's put his name to it, or that it can't
be sustained. And I think this is the assumption mister Nettignan who is adhering too, and he can quietly ignore the president.
With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of millions have finally been answered, as you know, the hostages have been returned, and further work goes on having to do with the sadly to save buddies. Together, we've achieved what everybody said was impossible. At long last, we have peace in the Middle East. And it's a very simple expression piece in the Middle East, and we've heard it for many years, but nobody thought it could ever get there, And now we're there.
Wow, Trump's got the full attention because he's after a Nobel Peace Prize next time round, isn't he?
So there is.
Something round for he was going for one this time.
Yeah, but he's the nominations closed, right, Yeah.
But this is ironic, isn't it? Because mister Trump has been restricting the rights of people within the United States, particularly on university campuses, who have been demanding US ease firing Gaza, and suddenly he's embraced the idea and he wants a Nobel Peace Prize for belatedly accepting an idea that much of the international community. It shouldn't be forgotten, Chelsea that on the twenty seventh October twenty twenty three, the majority of countries more than one hundred and forty
what did the immediate cease fire? It was the United States under the Biden administration, which five times exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire, and then the Trump administration exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire. So you know, we've got to put this in some ports persective. Just because mister Trump was the ne Elberg Beace Prize. It's not just based on performative acts. It's also based
on sustained commitment and demonstrated dedication. I'm not sure that's self evidently the case.
I saw Trump posing with other world leaders in Egypt behind that big piece twenty twenty five sign one person not in attendance though, Benjamin Netanya, who should we read into that?
Well?
I think some of the leaders made it quite clear, you know, mister nettnia who's under an arrest warrant from
the International Criminal Court. In addition, a number of countries, Turkey in particular, indicated they would not attend if Nettignao, who does actually turn up, I think the Americans probably prevailed or Nettnao who not to turn up, given the reaction that mister Trump was getting from countries that he wants to have constructive relations with, such as Turkey, which you know, mister Trump went out of his way to
praise Turkey, mister Odowan at the summit in Egypt. The crucial thing here is, however, we're not going to get a stable or reliable peace in the Middle East until Israel's desire for security is matched by a recognition by an Israeli leader. The Palestinians need a peaceful path towards
political self determination. The Hamas issue is a side show. Basically, one of the reasons Hamas Scott leverage is because Israel, according to the International Court of Justice, illegally occupies three Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem or the West Bank and Gaza.
So until that picture changes, until Israel recognizes that their long term security cannot be achieved by military means, a position our Foreign minister has always maintained to be the case, and I agree with him that there's no military solution. You can't bomb your wage of security. Until the post unies are given the option of ignoring Hamas and forming their own state, then this situation is likely to flare
up again. In other words, if mister Netnia, who thinks he can simply have fabulous relations with always Arab neighbors backed by the United States, and basically take over the West Bank and virtually control Gaza, then I think this thing will quickly fall apart.
What is the key ingredient that needs to happen for it not to fall apart like we've seen it fall apart before.
Well, As I said, at the risk of repetition, I think there needs to be a recognition in televisi in Israel that the Palestinians. They came close to it in the Oslo process in the early nineties of recognizing you cannot simply exclude another people from achieving statehood, and the State of Israel was created in nineteen forty eight. That resulted in the displacement of a lot of Palestinians. No one suggesting in their right mind that we can go
back to that and all the Israelis leave. I think what we could hope for, however, is two states living side by side, and a Palestinian state being based on the territories of the West Bank, which are currently occupied Gaza and East Jerusalem. And that's how the Palestinians see it. So they're prepared to recognize and accept Israel, but they do want those territories to be liberated, as they see it.
And does all this hinge on the fact that every member of Hamas put down their weapons and say enough is enough.
Yeah, but you know this, be quite clear about this. Hamas is a terrorist organization, but it's also a resistance group. That is to say, Hamas only came into being because, first of all, the Israelis did not take the Palestinian authority seriously and sidelined it in the West Bank. And Hamas presents itself as a militant resistance group to Israeli occupation, so it's a child or an offshoot of occupation. If you want to defang or undermine Hamas, you need to
give Palestinians a peaceful path to self determination. It was John F. Kennedy who said shortly before he was killed, if the path to peaceful self determination for people is blocked, then extremism and terrorism is surely follow and unfortunately least is very very much confirmed. I think the wisdom of those words. It's not going to be an easy path.
But there are a number of people in Israel I would say that, a distinct minority who believe that there has to be a mutual understanding between the Palestins and the Israelis along the lines we've discussed.
So what are the next steps of this ceasefire plan.
Well, the next steps we understand is for there to be the appointment of non political, technocratic Palestinians to run Gaza, at least the part of it where Israel doesn't control, and that governance body will be overseen by what mister Trump called a Board of Peace headed by himself and including people like Tony Blair, who's got enormous baggage in the Middle East area.
I mean, mister Blair get along with them the first time round?
Did he well?
No, mister Blair has been widely criticized because for many Arabs states, mister Blair's reputation has been tainted by his involvement in the invasion of it Raq giving him green light to America going ahead. But also he's had other involvements with in the quartet as it was Corn and
it's quite a controversial move. I mean. The crucial thing, I think from the point of view of Arab states will be some recognition the Palestinians have a part to play in determining their own destiny, because at the moment, what is conspicuous is absent from the Board of Peace or Palestinian representatives.
Now, these are first steps, and anybody that's ever had any regard to the history of this area will know to be cautious. However, you've got our biggest cross People in different countries are putting a lot of work into this, and it is possible, just hopefully that peace will be breaking out and it'll be permanent.
How do we know that this isn't going to fall over?
We don't. But unless you know, life is in politics is often a choice between the disagreeable or the intolerable, and the situation we have just witnessed the last two years for most of us was intolerable. So what's happening now maybe not be perfectly agreeable, but at least it represents a possibility of movement. So what I found slightly encouraging is that many of the Arabs countries, like Egypt, which borders Gaza Saudi Arabia Both Saudi Arabian Egypt are
close alli of the United States, as is Katar. They seem determined now, and it's belated. I wonder where they were for the first two years of this crisis, because they remained distinctly limp and weak and not demanding justice for the Palestinians. But they now have seem to it after the attack by Israel and Katar reached a new resolution that there must be a two states solution and
if there isn't, their own security is possibly threatened. So and now this presents mister Trump with I think more constraints.
American decision makers have traditionally been pro Israeli, and they've usually been very supportive of israel I. Think what may be happening from here on in We don't know, but at least the expectation is amongst leaders from Turkey, is Indonesia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, is that mister Trump's going to be more even handed from now on and begin to take into account the aspirations of the Palestinians as well as the Israelis.
We don't know whether that hope will be realized or whether it will not be realized, but it's certainly bringing a cease fire to a situation of unimaginable suffering. I mean, quite frankly, it's been an international disgrace Chelsea. And it's not just the Israelis and the Americans bearing responsibility for it, as well as Amas. You have to think more deeply and say, where was the UN Security Council. You know, this organization has the responsibility to uphold global peace and security.
It was found wanting when the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's been found wanting in the situation we've just wanted the last year. It was failed to present itself as a barrier to war and peace. Why because five members of the Security Council can exercise the veto to perpetuate conflicts about gaza. So one thing I'd like to see is steps taken to ensure there can be no more gazas. What does that mean. It means reform with U N Security Council. We have to constrain the veto powers of
five countries. In the twenty first century, We're in a ridiculous situation where five countries determine matters of war and peace for the whole planet. So while they've got that nice little perk of a veto, the rest of the world is paying the price for that perk, and I'm not sure the rest of the world wants to put up with it for too long.
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Thank you.
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enziherld dot co dot nz.
The Front Page is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin, who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
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