Who Can Win a Major in 2023? - podcast episode cover

Who Can Win a Major in 2023?

Jan 17, 20231 hr 13 minEp. 423
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Episode description

With the 2023 golf season underway, we're already thinking ahead to the four men's major championships. Joseph LaMagna, who writes the excellent Finding the Edge newsletter, joins Andy to discuss which players have the best chance of winning a big one this year. They sort players into tiers ranging from "No Contention = Major Failure" to "Lightning in a Bottle." And yes, some LIV guys are in the mix!

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset. When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my ball in a brid egg Frida Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg, Frida Egg Egg brid Egg brid Egg, Lie, I'm about ready to run off of the up course. Welcome back to another edition of the Frida Egg Podcast. Today's episode is with Joseph Lamania.

Joseph is a golf statistician. He consults with PGA Tour players as well as writes sometimes on The Friday Egg as well as his newsletter Finding the Edge, which you can search on substack for it is a great bread that's free, highly recommend So we chat every once in a while pretty regularly, and one thing that is always on my mind every year as we get kicked off. In twenty twenty three is who can win a major championship?

So that was the exercise. Joseph and I each wrote out who we think can win major championships, the players that have this requisite skills to win major championships, and we kind of talked about, you know, the tiers that they're in and the skill sets of players, and you know what puts them in certain places. So this was a fun chat. Didn't touch on everyone in great detail, but talked about a lot of different players. So without further ado, here is just a philamonia. Joseph, welcome back.

How are you doing.

Speaker 2

I'm great, Thanks for having me Andy, I'm looking forward to this.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I have to apologize. I'll probably apologize multiple times, but my mic just like crapped out on me. I don't know what happened, and so I'm using the air pods. We'll see the audio will be will be fine, it will be listenable, but not our usual standards. What have you made of Week one of the PGA to our calendar.

Speaker 2

I think it's given people a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the future. Still have my reservations about if they're going to fall through with what I think needs to be done, but I think the first week of an elevated event gave people a feel for what what it looks like when every golf when all the top golfers are teeing it up at the same time. So a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the PGA Tour.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think it seems like we're going to get a better feel of who the best players are because when you kind of look at I mean, it's like, how do we classify Tony finals two wins last year when he went back to back at three M and Rock and Mortgage and there was you know, three or four top fifty players in the world at the event. You know, how do we how do we grade that out in comparison to a second place finish at a you know, WGC, Right, you know which one's better? Yep.

Speaker 2

And I'm sure you can maybe guess what I'm about to say. But the last step of this is being able to see who's doing well for the season. So having a a season long standings that actually makes sense. So let's uh, let's restrict FedEx cut points to just those events. Please.

Speaker 1

Well, that's another topic for another day and one I think we've touched on before on this podcast. What I wanted to talk to you today about and this is something that I kind of think about all the time, and it's it's kind of a derivative off of Brooks and what he said about like I'm competing against I can't remember the exact quote, eight players or whatever it is.

And it's kind of also derivative off of, like if you're a competitive golfer and playing qualifiers, it's you know, half the people shouldn't be there, half the people of the people that should be there are going to play bad, and then that leaves a lot smaller pool of people you're actually playing a tournament against. So with that in mind, but the topic that I think a ton about is

who can actually win a major championship. And you know, we go into a new year of majors, I think there are some players that, like, for example, that now are on my list that weren't last year, Cameron Young, you know, players that moved way up on my you know, Fitzpatrick would be a player that wasn't on my list last year that's on my list and pretty high up this year. And you know, so that's the topic. I

kind of put them into tiers. I think you put them into tears too, And we each created a list to go off of, and you know, I think we should start at the bottom. I kind of like created some like catch lightning in a bottle, some players that I want to see some stuff from, but from it, from my I've got four tiers. How many tiers do you have.

Speaker 2

That's funny say that I have five tiers and I'm not kidding My fifth tiers called Lightning in a Bottle.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean you got to cover your basis, Like I mean the reality. I don't want to call Phil's when at a fluke, but it was.

Speaker 2

A fluke, I guess.

Speaker 1

And I think you know there's there's a bunch of things in Tier five, like you know if mine, mine didn't officially make the list, but like a name in there is Patrick Reed. I don't really think he's a major championship player that you would like consider being like a winner, you wouldn't be I think you'd be surprised if Patrick Reed wins a major championship. And the point of this list is like the names on this list and my tiers are names, I wouldn't be surprised if they want a major.

Speaker 2

Yes, So on that Patrick Reed is one of my four names and Lightning in a Bottle important note on him. He's not qualified for all the majors this year, right, So you're mainly talking about Augusta, which is irrelevant topic. As we go through a lot of these very relevant which players are actually qualified for the majors? I think

before we get into the tiers. One difference between our lists will be that I think mine may be a little longer, and that's that's probably representative of how I view golf and thinking about a lot of this in ranges of outcomes, Like there's I think there are so many players could they win? Of course, I think it'd be I wouldn't want to leave out some of those names that are like fifty to one, eighty to one to win a tournament they could win. We're really deep right now.

Speaker 1

Yeah, And to be clear, my Tier five isn't in my list. It's like my it's like catch Lightning and a bottle. So we're in the same boat here. Who else do you have in this tier?

Speaker 2

Sure? Yeah, I have four names in the Lightning and a Bottle. Again, part of this is the golf courses that we're going to see, So I think throughout the pod I may reference some of the skills that'll be required at some of these courses.

Speaker 1

This year, you went way deeper than me. Yeah, more of an eye test guy.

Speaker 2

Hey, that's fair. It'll be interesting to see how the stack up.

Speaker 1

Then.

Speaker 2

So my four names and the lightning in a Bottle are Bryson, Patrick Reid, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyroll Hatton.

Speaker 1

All right, I don't have I have Bryson in my tears, and my kind of like writing is about him. Like my one line about him is are you still a golfer.

Speaker 2

Again? I'm with you, And I think a relevant, irrelevant piece of Bryson is that the way his game is currently built and how much he sprays the ball, he has almost no chance of winning at Augusta or at LACC. And I feel pretty confidently saying that.

Speaker 1

It's interesting with him because for a lot of my research, the way I kind of base this and move guys around was really off of you know, what have you done in the last five years at majors And that kind of became the thing that I built this off of.

And Bryson, based off of what he's done in majors in the last five years, should be in like Tier two or Tier three, but he's in tier He's in Tier four for me because like exactly what you point, like the way his game is constituted, Now what is he You know, he went to live and it's not a deep or really that strong of a competition and was completely irrelevant like, you know, that's been the interesting thing.

Like there's some players on here that we'll talk about that are to live players, but like, I'm just so shocked at how irrelevant some really big names were in a small, watered down field of golfers with no cut, Like I'm shocked at how bad they were last year.

Speaker 2

Hey, if we're gonna talk about the majors, the live impact is a relevant part of the discussion. Not only I think in terms of what it does to you when you receive a huge check to go play on that tour and maybe how that affects your motivation, not for all players but for some of them. But I think it also is an indication what those players are signaling by going. I genuinely do think that. So we'll see when we get to the majors how it impacts them.

I think it will impact those players differently. But yeah, I think a lot of those players was a little bit of a sailing into the sunset to take that money.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and I think, you know, if I was going to agree, I agree with you your players being in there with like Fleetwood, and I think Fleetwood and Hatton those are you know, players that won big events I mean Terrel Hatton cantankerous and I think he'll be happy with some of the golf courses this year. I think Terrel Hatton will have no complaints at oh Kill, you know, and from vast standpoint, it's probably good. And Tommy Fleetwood

he'd be an interesting one. It'll kill too if I had to zero in on on guys that might play well there because of this narrow it's you know, it's gonna require some really good second shots. I had in my catch Lightning in a Bottle that you didn't have. I had. Davis Riley and Cam Davis. I'm like, Irra, I've been the last three weeks really since he won that. I think it was the Australian Open that he won, the Australian PGA.

Speaker 2

Sam Belt Invitational, is that what you're talking about.

Speaker 1

Sam Bellumvitational. I've just been talking myself more and more into especially with the way you played in the Presidence Cup Cam Davis breakout year, and I just am like irrationally confident in Cam Davis. I don't know why.

Speaker 2

Well, I've been like shouting from the rooftops about Cam Davis going back to last fall. To be honest, Andy, I think I think there are a lot of people with you. It's almost to me becoming like when you like a musical artist and then you start to hear them played on the radio and you get disappointed. I feel like that's kind of where I am with Cam Davis, and it's not that much of a sleeper pick. So I don't have him in my lightning in the bottle because I have him higher than.

Speaker 1

That you have him higher? What about Davis Riley?

Speaker 2

He didn't make my list, but I have a lot of respect for his game.

Speaker 1

Okay, all right, I don't want to take too much time on Tier five. You know, Tier four? Who's in your Tier four?

Speaker 2

Okay? Do you want me to give you at all, like how many I have in each tier before going into this or do you just want me to go right into the Tier four?

Speaker 1

Just go right into it. I've got I've got six guys. How many guys do you have?

Speaker 2

So I have twelve twelve names and Tier four.

Speaker 1

So I in this I just kind of like the way I would put these guys in here is like they're either guys that would have been like have fallen down but have like major pedigrees or guys that I think are really good that haven't done anything.

Speaker 2

Okay, So for me, I'm labeled it can win. And what I meant by that was wouldn't surprise me if any of these players wins a Major. But they're not to me, like a top fifteen threat that I'd expect to be in contention at multiple of them. So kind of a step up from the lightning in a bottle for sure, but not somebody that I'm expecting to be in the top ten and two or three of the majors. So I can go and rattle mof if you're ready, Yeah, rattle off. So I have Sam Burns in here.

Speaker 1

I have him too.

Speaker 2

I have Hideki, who hopefully we can talk a little bit about. I think he's one of the most in the world.

Speaker 1

I had him in here and then I looked at his numbers and I moved him up to Tier two.

Speaker 2

I actually Thinkdki is one of the most underrated players in the world.

Speaker 1

Has him with Tier four.

Speaker 2

Well, he has some injuries, so I'm not expecting him to be relevant in all four of the majors. But I don't want to go underweight on Hideki. I think he's an absolutely elite player.

Speaker 1

He has a win in four top fives in the last five years, which like that's a top ten major player.

Speaker 2

He's won eight tournaments since he's been on tour. I'm really high on Hideki. Maybe that says more about the players I have rated ahead of him.

Speaker 1

But I just don't know how how many guys you got ahead of him.

Speaker 2

Fifty guys he got ahead of him, fifteen.

Speaker 1

Fifteen, Holy cow. That's the thing is when I initially did it, I did it without stats. I just like kind of went down the owgr and I threw guys down and I had Hideki in Tier four. And one of the reasons is like I just never feel good about Hideki. One of the things about Hideki is like, if he's in contention, I don't ever think he's going to win. And I think that's because of the potter I.

Speaker 2

Can go with you to an extent, except that I actually think he's a sneaky like would not want to go head to head with Hideki. Not a lot of emotion there. And he is absolutely one of the best iron players in the world with a really underrated short game, and this year in particular, I think the may your championships will require iron tests, your irons to be tested more heavily than in years prior. So I really like Kideki's chances. Me putting him in Tier four was not a slight to his game.

Speaker 1

Feels like it.

Speaker 2

Well, we'll get to the other names. H Do you want me to go through my rests of Tier four? I can. I can just rattle them off.

Speaker 1

We got to see something from Sam Burns in a major this year, right.

Speaker 2

I agree, Yeah, that's why he's in my like could win. But if he's not relevant in any of the four majors, I wouldn't be shocked. Maybe that's the best way to characterize this tier for me.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think that's a good that's a good thing. That's a good way to classify it.

Speaker 2

So with that in mind, Sam Burns, Hideki, Max Homa, Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Joaque Neeman Berger, Adam Scott, Sung, JM cam Davis, Brooks, Kofka, and Aaron Wise.

Speaker 1

All right, we have a lot of the same. So my six worse Sung J Bryson, Adam Scott, Burned, Tom Kim, and Louis Us Stayson.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Louis Stayson did not make my list.

Speaker 1

Well, I just like, I've never seen somebody go from one year being so relevant to so like, you know, this falls in the same kind of bucket of Bryson right, and Bryson and Louis in twenty twenty would have been if you were drafting players at majors, would have been top ten picks both of them, and then in the last year it was just like complete irrelevant.

Speaker 2

I do think a key difference between Bryson and Louis. I'm looking at Louie's age right now, but I think the go to live plus being forty years old and being somebody who made their have their best year when they put the absolute lights out, that's a really bad combination. So I actually expect Louis to be irrelevant.

Speaker 1

There's also there's also been a long rumored apthy about Louis Sayson and professional golf, you know, and I imagine that, you know, getting a bit giant check dropped into your bank account might make that apathy grow a little bit more too, so I could easily drop Louis. Louis was like the last guy I added in here because I was like, oh, you know, he had such a good twenty twenty it would, and he's such a good major player that it seems like it would be silly to

be to drop drop him down there. You know, somebody I wanted to talk about was like, does Tom Kim have enough pop for major championships?

Speaker 2

Here we go, Tom Kim. So I've been I hate being on the side of you know, I don't think this person is going to do well because I want Tom Kim to have an illustrious career. But I do think every time I think we've learned a lot about golf stats, how short term people's brains tend to be flares up again, and I think Tom Kim is like the perfect example where when this really hot streak came about and he wasn't doing it in a way that's

necessarily sustainable. He's short off the tee, he's an unbelievable putter. I thought more people would kind of go the route of like this is going to come to an end at some point, and that is where I stand. So I think he'll settle into being a player who's ranked like fifteen to twenty fifth in the world. Not that optimistic about what his majors will look like this year, But I really hope he does some speed training, puts on some speed and then maybe he can ascend to

like a Colin Morikawa level. I think that's the right comparison.

Speaker 1

He is a great iron player. I think that's the thing that gives me a little bit of hope he is. In terms of Tom Kim is that he's such a good iron player. That's sad about his Part three scoring average is impressive. I always like think that, like when he played Part three as well, it's usually like a sign that you're playing really good golf because you know it's a you got to kind of like you have to hit a lot of different iron shots on Part Three's so I like Tom Kim, I do. The thing

I worry about is distance especially. I think he has a better chance at I think like LACC would be the place that I would most like his chances. I would really not like his chances at Okill is so narrow, it's just gonna be punishing, and I just don't think you can drive it well enough to be short, Like you're gonna miss some fairways and it's just gonna kill you if you have six iron in hand.

Speaker 2

Can I make a crazy comparison on Tom Kim. Yeah, because some people asked me, like, who's who's his statistical profile, and I don't really think there is a great one, but one one name that kind of comes to mind, and this might be disrespectful to Tom Kim, so I do think he's better than this player. But there was a stretch at the end of twenty seventeen where Brian Harmon was liked. Look, I have a lot of respect for Brian Harmon's game. He went top tens like plane.

Speaker 1

Junior golf I was in the same era. He was one of the greatest junior golfers of all time. I'm the same age as I have a lot of respect. That's disrespectful. My point is he's twenty years old.

Speaker 2

I agree. I think Tom Kim is going to be better than Brian Harmon. My point is Brian Harmon went through this red hot stretch right, and then he was completely irrelevant in the majors that year, in part because major championships are generally much more events that you got to hit the ball along off the tee and Tom Kim, if he puts on some speed, I will completely revisit

this position. I think he's a better golfer than Brian Harmon, but I think there's some regression in store, especially when he gets to some courses where you really got a vomit.

Speaker 1

I think, yeah, Like is he like maybe like the extraordinarily wealthy Kevin Kissner.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean I think he's better than that, but yeah, extremely well Brian Harmon.

Speaker 1

You know, a good question is like who's better Brian Harmer Harmon or Kevin kiss That'd be a good player at com Yeah, because like Brian Harmon has been more relevant in majors. I feel like, I mean, Kissner had Quil Hollow and the U which trooon.

Speaker 2

I think Brian Harmon finished second Aaron Hills and has not done much besides that. But he's had a phenomenal career. Brian Harmon's ranked like twenty fourth in the world right now, he's a great player.

Speaker 1

OWG Hars is kind of like not real right now, it's here we go, Now we're well. Sepstraca is twenty seventh in the world, texted Brenda last night. I'm like, did you know Sepstraca is twenty seven in the world. Guy wearing squares is twenty seven in the world. Any other notes on your guys in Tier four that you you want to get off.

Speaker 2

Well, I'm incredibly high on cam Davis, so I think we're aligned on that one. So that was one of my notes. One of my main notes was that I was going to be extremely complimentary of Hedeki Matsuyama. I think you think I'm under rating him. I have fifteen golfers ahead of him. But I did want to say I think Kadeki Matsuyama is poised for an amazing major run this year as long as he's healthy. He's battling a neck injury and that's worrisome. But other than that, I think I'm good On notes.

Speaker 1

I said one thing I had, you know, one big discrepancy is Brooks Kopka, Yeah, I had Brooks. This was another one. I had Brooks down here, and then I couldn't ignore, like, you know, just a year last year he was bad. The year before he had three top five You know.

Speaker 2

My own opinion, and I think people we may just not see eye to eye one hundred percent on this one. I don't put that much stock in how somebody's done in a major in the past. That may be relevant when we talk about somebody like Patrick Cantley, who I'm very high on, but Brooks having having major success in the past. If he's spraying his driver like he is right now, like, that's not it's not just going to magically change. So I'm a little bit lower on Brooks.

The injuries are concerned. If he wins one, it wouldn't shock me. But if you told me that this upcoming year he's gonna have three top tens in a major I would be shocked.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you know what you've illuminated with Bryson and Brooks is the driver getting crooked. And I think, like you, if you think about it, is like those were the two of the skills that really set them apart. Bryson in particular, set them out apart completely. Brooks was all around great during his run, but the driver was such a weapon, and it's it's kind of like, in a way, it's rare to see. I mean, I think one of the things you could point to is like Bubba Watson.

You know, Bubba's great years correlite really strongly with when he drove it really well, you know, like when the driver got a little squirrely. But a lot of guys are that are great drivers, it's hard to not be a great driver once you're a great driver. Does that makes sense? Well?

Speaker 2

Yeah, And I think one maybe obvious point about a driver is it's the only time every person has the same lie the ball is on a tee. And I think that that does actually provide some information about how a player is truly hitting the ball right when you that's the only time we're actually comparing apples to apples on any shot. Other point I would make though on when I'm talking about Bryson, like Bryson, how much he's sprang it, We're talking like he is literally dead last

in any kind of accuracy stat I have. So when I say Brooks and Bryson are both spraying it, it's still they're on different planets. Brooks can at least keep it in bounds. Bryson right now cannot keep the golf ball like remotely remotely online.

Speaker 1

Who would have thought that chasing trying to be a long drive guy would have an adverse effect on your ability to be one of the best professional golfers in the world. I think people would be disappointed to see Sung Jay here, But I you know, what is it? I think obviously Sung Jay I was extremely high on like three years ago, and at this point I kind of feel like he's developing into just another guy.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, I wrote a piece for the Frida egg on Sung Jay. He doesn't have a ton of pop with his driver, hits it really straight, but the difference between hitting it dead straight and just a little bit off isn't as significant at a place like Augusta or at LACC. So I think some of these guys who hit the ball really short, not Sody's not really short, but who don't bomb the ball but hit it dead online, that's not going to be as much of an advantage at a gout Star LACC as it would be somewhere

like Sedgefield. So I'd throw Billy Horshell in that category. He did not make my list. Tom Kim's in that category. Song Jy's in that category as well.

Speaker 1

M h. That's uh all right. I have some guys. I didn't have Homa, I didn't have Niemen, I didn't have Burger. I think, uh, I mean, I just I'm not. I need to see a lot more from them. They'd be in the like I need see. That's I guess that's where I differ with you. Is like, I think majors are completely different animals than tour events, and I correlate nothing, no, nothing with like what you did at the Safe Way or you know, the butterfield Bermuda with

what's going to happen in a major championship. I just think it's like a completely different form of golf.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so that's where at Riviera is just another another butterfield to you.

Speaker 1

Huh, that's not what I said. But Neiman, I just I don't know. I maybe actould. I thought about putting Nemen in one of these groups, but again I I just didn't don't think he would win one of these. I would almost say that I'd expect Mito to win more than Niemen, but Meto is not going to be exempt to like anything.

Speaker 2

You getting bailed out then, because I do not agree.

Speaker 1

I think he's just better Te de Green.

Speaker 2

Than Joaquin Nemon. I'll take Juaquin Demon Te de Green over over Meeto Praira.

Speaker 1

All right, all right, my guy, my guy had a chance to win a major. So all right, Tier three. These are guys that you know, I in my my thing, like, would not it all be surprised if they won? Kind of all of them, I would like hope they would win one, and I think they can compete at just about any course, but some of them have greatly underachieved. And leading that list is Patrick Cantley. For me, I've got Victor Hovland, Cam Young, Final and Shane Lowry in this group. Who's in your Tier three?

Speaker 2

Yeah, we have some overlap here, but I have I have ten names in Tier three, that meaning I only have five that are ahead of them total. And my definition of the third tier was if they're not in contention and at least one major this year, probably two, it's a disappointing year, like they can win anywhere. Never surprised to see them in contention. That's my definition. I have can't Ley like you do. I've got Shoftley. I viewed those golfers very similarly. Xalatorus Fitzpatrick see now who

I am incredibly high on. Think he could burn everything down this year, Cam Young, Morikawa, Speeth Hoveland and Dustin Johnson.

Speaker 1

Dj I. It's interesting my Tier two and Tier one are significantly bigger than your years, and I think my Tier three is really small because I ended up putting a bunch of guys up into Tier two. After I I looked a lot of past success. I think that's where the different differentiation is, right. I find it interesting that Colin Morikawa is here. That would be the number one name that pops off the page, and that is

based off of his past success. Two wins, five top fives, and twelve starts in major championships, and I don't know how he doesn't get bumped up to at least Tier one or Tier two based off of that.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, to an extent, I think it depends on how many people you have in those tiers. When I view the landscape of golf right now, I do think there are five golfers who are above any of the rest, and I do not think Calmar Kaba is currently in that category, but he's really good. He and Fi now are really close to jumping up there, as Alexander and Patrick Cantlay. But I think there are five

golfers that I would take. I would give you more Kawa versus any one of them head to head for the Majors this year.

Speaker 1

So it's interesting I move Markawa up from Tier two to Tier one when I looked at the stats and my five were the same five as your top two and the Tier one, and I do agree with that premise to a certain extent. I just think that right now, the cold takes on Marikawa are a bit of an overreaction. And you know, I think like at Kapellua, he showed like through sixty three holes. How like, I think he's about as good of a golfer as there is when he's on, and I think that that would put him

into that same bucket as all the other guys. So Finaw is the guy that you're you're high on and if you you know, like, what, what's the statistical case for Tony Finow?

Speaker 2

Yeah, the statistical case for Tony Finow who has been fine in majors. He has been since last May one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world. He became an extremely accurate driver going back to right about last mid May, really long hits, good irons, has a great short game. He's been putting well. He has been one of the best golfers in the world over the past six to eight months. He's won a couple of times. I don't I don't really see any holes

in his game. He's basically become like a rom off the tee, a little shorter, but pretty much a rom off the tee, and if he I think the only reason he's shorter is because he restrains himself a little bit. I think Tony fen Now, there are a million reasons to be bullish. Wouldn't be surprised if you want a major this year at all. I'm so high on him.

Speaker 1

The thing that always goes overlooked, And I think this happens with a lot of like great players, you know, if you think down the line of like he's not a great player anymore, but Sergio Garcia, Hideki Mastayama would fall into this bucket, Brooks Kopka would fall in this bucket, and Tony Finow is like terrific short games, like those guys around the Greens are are like world class, but they it never gets talked about because of other ancillary skills.

And with Fenw it's always the thing that people are always going to talk about is the driver. But he

drives it well. He's a really good iron player and he's got great short game, and I think, you know, like when you put that together, he kind of falls into that bucket of like if the putter's okay, he's going to be in in the top five, like that's Almos It's almost like his week is determined by the relative nature of his putter, and it just has to be a little bit better than average for him to pile up wins.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I don't think they're too many golfers, even if it's not the strongest field. Who can blow a field out right now, Tony Fenales on that list.

Speaker 1

Who else would be on that list?

Speaker 2

Rory Rahm, justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler.

Speaker 1

I think Mori Kawa has to be. He was blowing out of the field of the century.

Speaker 2

Yeah, he's He's right there. He's in the back of my mind. To be clear, I came away with a much more positive with a positive impression from Marikawa after Kapa Loua. I am not going down though, like he choked it away. I'm worried about him. I have a very high opinion of Mari Kaala. I think part of where this comes from is he's giving up a lot of distance off the tea to these guys. I understand that he's an e lee iron player, but when you are playing from behind names like Rory John Rahm and

the putter, it can be pretty inconsistent. Man, iron game's got to be really on.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and it can be like That's the thing about it is like it can be so good that it, you know, it renders everything kind of irrelevant because of how good the iron play can be. Now for a quick word from our sponsor, Athletic Greens. I take ag one by Athletic Greens every single morning. This started in really late October. I was looking for some better ways to take care of myself. It had been a long

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And I guess like I had separated can't Lay and Xander based off of just purely what they've done in majors. You know, one of the things I think was Xander I wonder about was like, was his first you know, four years of majors more of an aberration and last year, you know, it was the worst major year he's ever had,

Like where's the balance? Was that just a you know that that was just bound to happen was he going to have a mediocre major year or and then the other thing with can't le It's like, you know, is this just a statistical anomaly that he's been completely irrelevant given that, Like he's been a top ten player in the world now for four years in a row running, but.

Speaker 2

We're not talking about that many events. I will die on the hill that Patrick Cantlay is fine in majors going forward, And if somebody wants to take the other side of that, have at it. What is the thesis for why Patrick Cantlay doesn't play well in majors? Is it that he shows up and he gets so nervous he can't play. Like, if somebody can't give me a reason for why he's not going to play well in majors, I'll take give me the can't lay side. He's fine.

Speaker 1

Well. I was with a major champion once and I asked him about, you know, this was a player that no longer is on these lists, and he said, some guys just don't have it, some guys just can't get

it done when it really matters. And I think if you look at like Davis Love obviously got it done, but I think everybody would say that Davis Love's career in majors was like a disappoint which is crazy because he won twice, right, but like one of the things, he won a ton the week after, and for some people it's like that moment is too big and something

about it psychs them out. And I get it, like that, there is like a certain gravity of it, right, It's really hard, and I think that's where like you've seen Rory go through these mental gymnastics, right, the juggling, the reading a lot of books, the different things, like all the different ways that he's tried to prep for AUGUSTA.

It's really hard when you have to prep for something and you and some people prep differently and it works for him, but others, like when you put so much weight on it, they need to treat it just like another week. And I sometimes wonder if that is something that like with can't lay like it doesn't make any sense. I'm totally with you, and like it's frustrating because he

came out of the gates. He had that t three early in his career in majors, and you're like, Okay, this guy is going to be like a major champion, like specialist like you look at his game and you don't know why it would ever not work at a major, Like I tend to believe, and I think this is a pretty common thread through all of the players that you know, the top five players really that we've highlighted which we haven't gotten to, but are Rory John Rahm,

Justin Thomas Scheffler, camp Smith. Like those guys, if you look at their games, it's very hard to find like a discernible weakness. Obviously Putter can be a little bit of an issue for JT and Ram, but outside of that, like camp Smith can be a little squirrely with the driver. For the most part, those guys don't have weaknesses. And you think about Cantlay, it's like that's who Patrick Cantlay is. He is like just a very very well rounded player.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I will not push back on there being something different about major championships. I'm not trying to equate BMW championships with majors. Believe me, I do not feel that way. But I think the assumption then is that Patrick Canlay is psyching himself out, and so that that's where I would say, are you willing to say Patrick Cantlay is psyching himself out he doesn't have it, he doesn't have

what it mentally takes. Because to me, he does have it, and he talks like a person that has it, and I have a lot of confidence when he tees it up. So I think sometimes somebody's only played fifteen majors, like why that's not that's not one hundred, that's not two hundred, Like give him a chance.

Speaker 1

I think this is like something that has really changed about professional golf. Also is the instant gratification, the instant success, and you know, like the idea that these guys now, you know, it used to be that like you're fully formed golfer when you're thirty five, and now like at this point now in golf, if you're thirty five year old,

you know. And I think that's something to keep in mind, is that I think we're going to see late bloomers still, Like there is going to be major champions that pop up that weren't great at age twenty five or great major players at twenty five and figure it out later. Like somebody that jumps to mind for me is he's thirty three, Tom Hogy. I think it's a really good golfer.

And I didn't want to, you know, Like, I just think, like you know, if Tom Hogy's in the hunt at a major, I'm not surprised at all because he's he's a very good iron player and stuff. But he's thirty three, and nobody is like excited and hyped on him the way they are with Tom Kim right because he's thirty three.

Speaker 2

Oh, I'm gonna I'm not letting you off the hook here, all right. If what's if what's so big to you is is success in major champion and you're this high on Tom Hogy, help me get there to where you will not be surprised to see him on the first page of a leader board come Sunday this year.

Speaker 1

He's a late bloomer. He doesn't fight in any majors, all right, so he's just getting his feet wet. It's like the tour, his tour career. I think, like some guys like and I think this is what's gonna be this guy. I don't think like you know, I think there are gonna be guys that have Like if you look at the careers of guys, right, there's like a lot of buckets of there's you have, like your all time greats, and that's like Rory is in there where they span decades, and I think John Rahm is probably

a guy that's heading there. JT is heading there. I don't know about Scheffler, Like I don't think we've seen enough of the body of work from Scheffler. But you have these guys that span decades. Then you have guys that are like they had a nice ten year run.

Then you have guys that have like really nice five year runs, and then you have guys like Nick Watney where for three years they were a top ten player in the world, right, And I think like from that standpoint, you're going to have late bloomers that pop in in their their thirties, like early thirties, that have really good three year runs. And that's my case for a guy like Tom Hoky. So I would believe that I'm making this case.

Speaker 2

I'm going to take the other side of this, and I'm going to say high conviction. I think something that's happening across sports, and I would love to see a robust study on this unpack this further. I think you are seeing people in their late thirties in particular across sports with the speed revolution in every sport, their careers ending, and you've got Tom Brady. I don't Aaron Rodgers right, not great years.

Speaker 1

Lebron is obviously the outliar.

Speaker 2

And I think in golf something that's happened is that it's becoming.

Speaker 1

Hold on Tom Brady. Tom Brady's forty six. Yeah, I understand it's forty six playing football. All I'm saying.

Speaker 2

My only point is in golf there has been a speed revolution. I think it's gotten a little bit easier to optimize some of the other parts of your game with things like track man, and you have to have everything to win a major. Now you have to have the speed, you've got to be an elite iron player, and you've got a putt well that week. I don't think you're going to see too many players who find it between the age of thirty two and thirty eight

and then have success in majors. It's not impossible, but I would give another example like Jason Day. I don't think Jason Day is going to rEFInd things and then win a major again in the next couple of years. I really think it's it's much harder to be somebody who's on in your mid thirties.

Speaker 1

I would you know, I guess one of the things I would think I would think about with that is Pebble Beach where it's shorter. And you know, you like, different different major setups might yield different things, right, So like this year at Okhill, I don't and and I mean l A is gonna play super short. That's the one thing I will say is that golf course is not going to play long.

Speaker 2

There's some yeah, there's there's some long holes out there, but I'm with you. Conditions are going to be a really big part of how l a CC plays.

Speaker 1

Whether or not rain. I think, yeah, it's gonna be firm. There's it's not going to rain. It doesn't rain in June, right, I think the big one of the big things with l A is going is there going to be are you gonna get that marine layer? You know, are you gonna get that June gloom that keeps moisture in the golf course in the mornings in particular, And that'll be a big, big factor. But I think that golf course

plays pretty short, to be completely honest. I mean it, the ball moves out there, right, and there's some big slopes and uh, and I don't like that one. I think that's going to be such a different US Open. I think it might play a little bit more Augustina nationally for sure than US Opening.

Speaker 2

Where for me this is I'm viewing the US Open and the Masters very similarly this year. To me, that's a Cam Smith golf course. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Cam Smith is such a man. He he's such a fun player. I'm curious this is they'll be seeing him play the majors after a seasonal Live and like I you know, it's going to be one of the big storylines I think going into every major because you know, like, how do you I mean, if he doesn't dominate on LIV, how do you feel about him going into these these events? Right?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think it's going to be very difficult to know with all of these guys. And if there are three players, I think there are three live players that I don't really worry about this affecting their mentality. Stustin Johnson, Cam Smith, and Patrick Reid. I don't think they play any differently whether they're on Live or on the PGA Tour. If they're keeping their games sharp everyone else like a Taylor Dutch, I'd be shocked if he keeps his game up to snuff.

Speaker 1

So DJ's in your third bucket and he's in my second. But my kind of notes on him are are we in the decline of his career at this point? We're definitely on the backside of DJ. I thought I thought we were there three years ago that he won the Masters, and I kind of felt like an idiot and had a great year. But you started to see is it just that he's losing his like kind of unicorn status of a driver of golf ball.

Speaker 2

I think it's a fascinating question. This is something I wanted to bring up, Like, I think one of the most interesting questions this year is how motivated is Dustin Johnson to golf? I actually think it's a really interesting question. And if you if you were, like, win the Masters this year and be like, hell, yeah, I care, like I've been grinding. I think that would be such a cool insight into who DJ is because I actually think

he does care more than he maybe lets on. I don't think he's done, but he was spraying the ball last year. I could see a lot of different outcomes for DJ this year. He easily easily could be in contention come Sunday at either LACC or a gust that wouldn't shock me. The other two would surprise me a little bit more. But one of those first two I think he could be there.

Speaker 1

The what's what's this correlation with going to live and then also not being able to control the driver?

Speaker 2

That's they they were having that issue before they went to live. This is I hope we don't have some kind of revisionist history where people forget that almost all of the players who went to live were seeing downturns in their career before they signed.

Speaker 1

So with Fitzi, he's a guy. He's a perfect example of a guy that you want Sung Dam and Tom Kim to become game speed and you know, retain what made you really good golfer before. And I guess, like, how close is FITZI to moving up into the upper ash line of golf.

Speaker 2

He's minor improvement with his irons away from moving up into that upper a schelane of golf. I have said that I think at the end of this year he will be in the top five of the official World Golf rankings. Yet I don't have him in my top five year. The reason for that is that major championships are going to be more demanding on your irons than a lot of other courses he's going to see throughout the year. So I like Matt Fitzpatrick on a PGA Tour schedule more than I like him at LACC.

Speaker 1

Still has a lot of PGA Tour event.

Speaker 2

Give he's he hasn't been an absolutely elite golfer for very long. Give him a year.

Speaker 1

Xalataurus obviously three runner ups in nine starts in majors is you know, I guess like he's one that I would look at in terms of jumping up to this. This is I think this is the quinn essential major player. Though, like where you say you don't put much stock in major championships, I think like when a golf course is more difficult, he is a player that becomes, you know, when it becomes more of a test. Compared to like TPC Craig ranch zal Taurus is going to fare better.

Speaker 2

To be clear, I put stock in major championships skill sets. It's I just don't put as much stock in the numbers that are next to their Wikipedia page for results in major championships. I think will zala Trus is an excellent player, he will play well in majors. His back injury legitimately scares me like that. I know he said he felt okay and he's playing when he played at Cappalua, and I think he's playing at American Express, like clearly

things are feeling better. But that is frightening to me that any swing he could keel over and beholding his back. That really frightens me with zal Taurus.

Speaker 1

See, I'd put him at this point and it's really early and your tears and we didn't even get through this exercise, which is you know, the fall of the host. But you had if not in contention major failure. You had Rory and Rahm if not in contention disappointed, cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler and JT. And I think, like I think I put zeal Torus in that if not in contention disappointed and I point to the Open Championship at Saint Andrews.

It was like he wasn't in contention, And I found myself very disappointed that he wasn't in contention and like surprised, I hear you.

Speaker 2

I mean, look, I could put everybody in that tier and then nobody would feel bad. But I do think when I view the professional landscape, the I think Rory and John Rahm have are clearly above everyone else. They have ascended, and I think Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler, and JT, especially given their iron play, are on that second tier and those five guys belong ahead of everybody else.

Speaker 1

JT question two top fives and five years of major championships, one of them being a win a back door win at Southern Health. Do you is there something about majors that gives it like, I mean, perfect example of a guy that's always like he should play great at Augusta, but never does. And I've always been a little bit confounded by I was confounded until I think last year. It was a big year for JT to get one, but at the same time he wasn't really around the other ones, you know.

Speaker 2

I feel obligated that to say that. I think there's a huge storyline that never gets talked about at Augusta with JT, and it is how much he has struggled with the drive on thirteen, which is a huge shot. He's gone in the creek left, he goes way out right.

Speaker 1

Try to hit that snapper.

Speaker 2

He can't hit the T shot he's given. It's his worst hole on the course by far strokes gained. I think he's losing like a quarter of a stroke to the field on that hole.

Speaker 1

Well, that was the one year that he was the one year he looked like he was going to win. On Saturday, he made a triple there.

Speaker 2

I'm telling you it's a it's a really it gives him fits. And I think he finished like tied for eighth in this past Masters. So I'm telling you you're talking about if he can figure this hole out, like a two to three shot gap between you know, losing strokes to the field versus picking up a couple birdies or an eagle. Like this is a huge story that doesn't really get talked about because Justin Thomas is very well equipped for Augusta and this one hole gives him fits.

He's got to figure it out, maybe hit threewood off the tee. But now now we have a little bit of a different hole that it's been lengthened, so that might work to his benefit if you don't have to hook it quite as much.

Speaker 1

And you know, like people talk about how it's going to make it harder for guys, but that is it is changing the dynastic, like you are going to be able to hit it longer now without turning it over. I still think you're gonna have to turn it over a little. But it's funny because like that, I mean, people, here's the thing. People fell in love with that snap hook that he hits. But the ball should have gone in the water at Sawgrass, the one on eighteen. It was a lucky bounce that he got that kept it

out of the water. Like, that's not a good shot.

Speaker 2

To hit a snaphook with a driver is not something you want to be doing in controlled snapler.

Speaker 1

I think it's controlled snaphook control Like this what shot? It's like, that's a controlled snaphook.

Speaker 2

I'm not sure how controlled it is. I think it's really hard to control a snaphook with a driver.

Speaker 1

Are we overrating Scheffler.

Speaker 2

I don't think we're overrating Scotti Scheffler. His iron play is unbelievable. I was too slow to see Scheffler coming, but I do believe he belongs in that top five. And if you wanted to take more Kawa Verus Scheffler for this year's Majors, I would take it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think he had such a good year. But then I go back and like, the one thing that worries me about putting him so high, and I have him in my tier one, So the thing that I was like, he hasn't done it for very long. But then you go back and it's like, well, like he almost won the first major he played in. It's a pro you know, and he played well. He if you go back to his college career, he was such a great player and big events, like he didn't show up all the time, but then when it was a big

time event, he was always there. And it's it's he's another guy that like when you look at his game, like what's his weakness? What would you say, is like the one thing that he doesn't do well? It's like, I don't know. I think he does everything really really well.

Speaker 2

His driver can get away from him a little bit at times. But the one note I have in here about Scotti Scheffler is I genuinely believe he has the best mental game in golf. I think he has the best attitude, the best mental game in golf. I genuinely believe that. And I also think having Ted Scott on his bag has been a significant benefit to him. So I'm very optimistic about what Scotti Scheffer's majors will look like this year.

Speaker 1

Would you who would you say is closest to ascending you? You have a top bucket of Rory and Rahm, and then your your next the next buckets obviously camp Smith, Scheffler and j T. Who's the closest to going up to tier one?

Speaker 2

JT?

Speaker 1

Interesting, I think I might go, I might lean Scheffler.

Speaker 2

I think Justin Thomas what he can do with his irons nobody else can really do. Mar Cow is the only name. Tom mor cow is the only other player that can hit irons like Justin Thomas. And I think at LACC and at Augusta in particular, that's that is an iron test hardcore. JT's also amazing at chipping, so is Scheffler. They're close, But when JT's on, I don't think there's anybody that can really get quite that hot.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, I mean, And this is the thing with the with the year. What makes me so excited, and you know, kind of the why I wanted to put this together is like we've never seen these guys play twenty times in the same place or sixteen or whatever it ends up shaking out to be. And this is gonna be the first time where we see that, and I think it's gonna paint like it's gonna start to

paint a much clearer picture, you know. I guess like we have the one person we haven't talked about that probably we obligated are obligated to talk about, is Jordan Spieth. He's in your third tier.

Speaker 2

I thought you were gonna say Tiger Woods.

Speaker 1

No, No, I mean, come on, I don't. I love I've one of the biggest fans of Tiger Woods. But like we could, he cannot be seriously talked about at this point, like he might win. I've said, this is my Stanta Tigers. Nothing he does will ever surprise me again ever. But that's all that needs to be said. I like, I think he struggles to walk two days in a row, and I think, you know, until we get to the point where he's physically able to really like walk seventy two holes, it's kind of a moot

point to talk to him. But Jordan Speed, obviously everybody's darling. I see him. I hope he pulls off this sony win and sets everybody into a speedmaster's hysteria, but like, it's been a really interesting career because he's you know, I think he's getting back to the guy he was, you know, when he was in twenty fourteen or twenty fifteen,

twenty sixteen, but he had has like a dip. Like it's it's been a very interesting career, and I think the last five years aren't really the same as the first three or four years.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I agree he's always been odd and that he's like one of the best fifteen to twenty five foot putters like ever, and then when he's hitting a three footer, I never think it's gonna go in, so that there is a weird obviously everyone knows like watching Jordan Speath is quite the experience. But I am really high on Jordan Speith. Hits it longer off the tea. Now, he's got a little firepower. Played unbelievably through the early summer last year. He's playing well again at Sony. Like I'm

I'm buying Jordan Speith. But again, there's so many golfers. I think we have this youth explosion over the past couple of years. This year, I don't think there's kind of there's not really a newcomer this year. It's just a bunch of guys who are twenty five to thirty three years old in the primes of their careers battling it out.

Speaker 1

So that's what I'm I think there will be a newcomer who we just don't know who it is.

Speaker 2

Yeah, maybe somebody's gonna pop up, somebody's.

Speaker 1

Gonna get high, But I think, yeah, I you know, the speed thing, the short putting. I honestly, I think there's a scar tissue, you know, like you go. That's the thing with golf is like it could go a lot of ways, but like when you go as low as he went, there's something like he's come back from it obviously really well. And I think there was a period of time when you were kind of like whoa, and it was a testament like he completely lost it, but he still was like a top one hundred player

like that. That's crazy. You know, when you don't know which way the ball's going off the tee and you're still a top one hundred, it shows how good you are at everything else. But the short putting, it's just weird, man.

And then like if he gets in the hunt sometimes I like some of his like failed to close out tournaments have been alarming to me, you know, like I'll never forget the Sunday where he just got smoked by Jason Kokrack and it's like whoa, Like, this's not you know, it's just I think he's further away from that top five then, And I think this is partly part of the what you hit on the youth youth explosion, Like

he was almost like the first part. Obviously Rory, I think would be like the start of the second youth way like Tiger had the youth was the youth invasion, but Rory kind of started it. But Speef was parts like the cog like he was like, oh wow, golf's changing because here comes this and now a lot of guys are are better than him. I think he's really good, but I think that he's at like a very he's he doesn't have the full suite of skills that some of these other guys have.

Speaker 2

I'm with you, he's not nearly as good of a driver of the golf ball as any of the other names that we're talking about. He's gone longer. He's fine, but he's not around. He's not a rary right, not a Cam Young doesn't leave a lot of doesn't leave a lot of margin for air, and if his irons aren't quite up to snuff and there's the risk of missing a four and a half foot or like, it gets a little scary. But I'm very high on Jordan speed. I think l acc and the Gusta set up very

well for him. Would not expect to see him in contention at Okill and Liverpool.

Speaker 1

Maybe who's the best driver of the golf ball? Young driver of the golf ball?

Speaker 2

Am I am? I allowed to say rom or Cam Young because it's one of the two. Are you saying?

Speaker 1

But I think it's Cam Young, right.

Speaker 2

It's one of the two. I mean they are very similar. I wouldn't trying to choose between rom And and cam Young's is pretty tough. They're both. They look very similar off the team.

Speaker 1

I mean Cam Young to me has like a gear. He's got like a I mean, it's scary how far he hits it.

Speaker 2

Same with Rom.

Speaker 1

I feel like Rom hits a lot of that squeeze cut though, just to keep it in play. I think Ron has that extra gear. I feel like Cam Young kind of goes at it all the time a little bit more.

Speaker 2

Maybe I don't know Rom's been training to those guys are neck and neck. I wouldn't if you in a driving contest. That's close to a coin flip for me.

Speaker 1

Mm hmm. All right, well, predictions, you want to put your predictions out there? If if you had to pick the four majors.

Speaker 2

Oh, I mean the I think the right answer, which is the lame answer, is like if I'm not saying that, I think Rory is the favorite at each of these, like he he is, So I would say a prediction is that Rory wins a major this year. I do think Rory wins a major this year. But I think if I was to start just picking, like, oh, and this guy at Oak Hill and this guy Augusta and this guy at LACC, Like, why are you picking them over Rory? Like that doesn't You're just trying to get cute at that point.

Speaker 1

So Rory for the sweep.

Speaker 2

No, see, I don't know obviously, I don't think he's gonna win all four, but I think Rory will win a major. And if you said you wanted to take a player right now against Rory any major, I'd take the other side. Happily give me Rory and against somebody else had to head it all.

Speaker 1

Four interesting the only guy, Yeah, I think I think there's a real argument that Rom is the best the best player too. I think that's the only other guy that you could defensively say and I'll take him against it because if you if you zoom out a little bit further, if you say two years is two and a half years instead of you know, two years, Rom probably has a better profile.

Speaker 2

Right yeah, quickly, huge story on Rom that I wanted to bring up. His wedge play really bad last year, wasn't really discussed. His wedge play was awful last year. I think that's a huge story to watch this year as Rory and Rom kind of duke out that number one spot. Rom's amazing with a long iron, not good with a wedge. Looked like he turned it around a little bit of kapalua. But that's something to watch. So predictions, I'll say, I.

Speaker 1

Think that could be a part of like you're talking about him speed training. Do you think that could be a a back like it because he was a really good wedge player.

Speaker 2

I think he started speed training. I don't want to say when he when he started speed trainings. I don't really know. I've just been seeing the videos from this offseason, but his bad wedge play goes all the way back to the beginning of last year. So no, I don't know that that wasn't necessarily related. Interesting all right, well he is always camp Smith at LACC. How about that.

Speaker 1

Camp Smith at LACC. I'm trying to think, if you can miss it left there a lot, then it's a good spot for him, and I think you can a lot of plays.

Speaker 2

Actually you can. You can miss it left there a lot thirteen fourteen.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's the same thing with the old course, right, you could just hit it one way all day. I mean that he's that was he's about the most fun to watch. I think, you know he's got he's got a little bit of the Jordan Spiths relatability that in

his game where he hit some squirrely shots. You know, it's not just like a a auto like you know, rom Like, there's no relatability with John Rohm the way he plays with like a normal person, right, but cam Smith has like a little bit of relatability because that driver can get squirrely and you can be like, oh, I could hit that shot, you know, and.

Speaker 2

The play is James Han But that's just me. Let's talk about their golf game.

Speaker 1

James. Hopefully nobody takes away the takes away the Twitter password from him.

Speaker 2

That's any any predictions from you, I mean.

Speaker 1

I'm the host, I don't have to. I think I was really out on cantle a last year, and I've worked my way back in on him. I think it is a statistical anomaly, and so I think he's going I'll say, Patrick Cantley is gonna win a major.

Speaker 2

Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? You're coming all the way back to that. After just talking about how he doesn't have it, I.

Speaker 1

Just I myself back into him this offseason. I felt I thought about the year and I thought, you know what, I think I was too hard on Patrick Cantley, and I think that this, like I believe that it's just I do believe it's a statistical anomaly that he's not playing. He hasn't played well at majors. I like camp Smith at Augusta.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean yeah, I.

Speaker 1

Feel like he kind of, like Sneaky, has the case of like if anybody has the case of like I should have won last year's Masters, as camp Smith like he had like some disastrous holes and he still was. I mean when he was on the twelfth tee, Scotty got really lucky with his chip shot on three. That was really lucky. If that ball doesn't hit the hit the cup, he's probably making a bogie there and the wheels are off, like and we've seen that the wheels go off moment, and I felt like we were staring

that right in the face when he chipped in. Also like then we're on twelve t and you're thinking camp Smith might win this or like it, and then he hit like a bad shot, you know, and he went for it. And so to me, like I look at camp Smith's major year last year and it was like the Masters, you could easily create a path that he wins that. And then the PGA he's one of the five to ten best putters in the world and he

finished last and putting that week the first. Yeah, so I think, like, you know, there's a world in the easy world where things go a little bit differently, where camp Smith wins two majors last year easy, And so with that in mind, I kind of think like he's been really close to Augusta a few times. This is the year he gets it done.

Speaker 2

I think the way I tend to think about Augusta is like on each te box, what happens if he hits it well, and what happens if it gets a little bit offline into the trees. And cam Smith's kind of fine in either situation. He's one of the best from the fairway, and he's one of the best at getting himself out of trouble from the trees. That's kind of a big part of Augusta. And that's why I'm really never worried about cam Smith on any of the

holes out there. But there are other guys where if they're hitting it a little bit crooked, they're not the scrambler that cam Smith is, So he's almost can't have a terrible day out there.

Speaker 1

Well, it's the same thing with Speed, right, Why does Speed play so well in Augusta. It's like, oh, like if he gets squirrely, it's not a big deal, you know, because he's like it's so hard. If Speth or cam Smith can hit the ball, can get out of the trees and hit it just short of the green, you know out there they're gonna get up and down almost every time because it's short grass, like those guys like, I think that's the beauty of short grass, right, is

like the very best guys from short grass. And you'll probably disagree with me here, but the very best guys from short grass, like they're hard shots, but those guys are so good they're gonna get up and down the vast majority of the time. And then you get guys like Lee Westwood who are putting, and it's like then it becomes like more of a fifty to fifty proposition, right, I think it. That's the thing with Augusta is that making par from the trees for somebody that's really good

at scrambling is not very hard. But for and it's the underrated skill out there, right, is the ability to just string together pars and avoid because you can make so many birdies out there, but bogies are waiting and those scramblers, like the bogies just aren't is readily available if you're really good around the greens.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I agree. And when I think about cam Smith Augusta, my mind goes back to shots like out of the trees on the left on hold nine that he jammed to like three, and it's like there's just other guys can't do that, They really can't. So Cam Smith, Yeah, if he's wearing a green jacket in a few months, I don't think we're going to be surprised, be quite the noisy. Uh maybe that'd be.

Speaker 1

A disaster, disaster for the PTA tour. If Cam Smith is the is the is holding the green jacket and the cleric drug at the same time. And you know the players Champion that didn't get to defend you know.

Speaker 2

Well, talent is talent.

Speaker 1

It's it's crazy. It should be a really funny year. I I I'm excited for more of these designated events too. That's the one of the things I'm didn't know that I was going to be this excited about.

Speaker 2

Yep, A lot of reasons to be excited as a golf fan. So it should be an interesting major season.

Speaker 1

All Right, we'll talk again soon. We'll see you, see you next week actually, but thanks for coming on, Joseph. People can find you on Twitter. They can also read your writing at the edge dot or on substack. Finding that Edge on substack and that's free to subscribe you You put up a put out a newsletter every once in a while with lots of good stuff and thanks for coming on.

Speaker 2

Thanks so much for having me Andy, I really appreciate it.

Speaker 1

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Friday Podcast. Today's podcast was edited and produced by Matt Russ's Thank you, Matt. He's also been doing some great work on the Friday Instagram channel. If you aren't checking that out, be sure to check that out. We've had a lot more videos put up recently and mass Mass been at the Helm a lot of those. So as a quick reminder, we've got Club TFE cooking. We are posting about five articles a week up there. We will have our first virtual

hangout kind of like a live podcast. They'll be Q and a based That will be next week. I'm on the road this week, but next week we'll be doing that and our events. Our first events are up up and open to Club TFU members. The you know, everybody will get access to those starting next week. But if you want early access, Club TFE is an awesome thing

to get. So for one hundred and twenty dollars a year, we are delivering a ton of articles and then you get at it perks like early event access ten percent off the pro shop, you know, a monthly video and other things, so club TFY. I'm really really happy with the early feedback we've been getting and the you know what we've been putting out there. I think we're as a team really proud of it. So if you're on the fence, I recommend jump in and join the community.

So if you want to sign up, go to the fridagg dot com slash membership and you can just sign up there. Thanks for listening to another episode of the Frida Egg. We will be back later this week, assuming nothing goes wrong. It'll be an architecture based podcast, so thank you and hopefully I will have a working mic Vibeck

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