I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset.
When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my.
Ball in a brid egg Friday Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg Friday, fridagg Frida Egg Bride egg Lie.
I'm about ready to run off of the up course.
Welcome back to another edition of the Friday Golf Podcast. I am your host, Andy Johnson, and today I am joined by Joseph Lavanya. We are going to be diving in. This is an annual tradition on this pod. I think I think we did it last year. I know we did it at least two years ago, but I try and do this every year. We are going to dive in and uh and come up with a couple players
we think might break out in twenty twenty five. So we've gotten to the end of this year, all all the results are in, all the statistics are in, and we're gearing up for twenty twenty five on the PGA Tour, and I guess we could do all tours. I don't know if you have any, Joseph, that any live breakout candidates. I think maybe the Thomas Peters moved to the four races might finally unlock that potential we've been we've been
dying to see since since the Ryder Cup years. But we came each came up with five breakout players and we will kind of run through them. There are varying degrees of players. Joseph, how are you.
I'm doing great. I'm looking forward to this. I don't remember for sure if we did this last year, but I have a feeling that might not have aged as well as probably would have liked to based on the performance of the camerons this year. So I'm hoping we do better in twenty twenty five.
Listen, we don't go We don't look back in anger, as the Great Oasis Wants once said, we do not look back and think about all of our past transgressions. This is strictly an outward approach. You know, you can't allow the past to, you know, influence what you're how you're predicting the future. And I've I've got my a couple of things that I always monitor. I always monitor birdies. I'm a huge believer in birdies. I believe you can coach away bogies. You can't teach birdies.
So and there's something to do that by the way you're smiling, But I think that's legit, not just.
I'm dead serious.
This is like I, you know, you always watched I as a as a as a career Midham as a I always joke with my Midiam buddies we are great at making like fifteen pars and how the other four holes shake out really determined.
If there's a good day or a bad day. Why do you play nineteen holes or three or fourteen fourteen parts? You know?
The keg is safe pars, you know, and uh, and when you play with the very talented college kids, you you see a different gear sometimes where you're like, well, I can't make eight birdies pretty on a pretty fairly consistent basis. I can't come out and make eight birdies a lot. And it's like, well, if you could just figure out how to coach away those bogies that you know that that's that's the easy stuff. It's hard to
make make the birdies though, as you know. Anyways, let's get into it, Joseph, who's first on your list?
I went with five different golfers from kind of five different levels in stages of their careers. So I don't know I have one that I can start with. I think the only opening comments I had Andy is when I was putting this together, a couple of things that I think you have to keep in mind. And I'm
curious if your philosophy with this is the same. Age is massive, right, if you're giving me a thirty year old golfer that you think is gonna break out, like, I need to understand what you think is going to change. Like not to say that you can't get better at that age, but generally there's a natural progression when you're younger.
So could I could I say thirty year old, thirty year old Justin Thomas switches to broom putter, breaks out, becomes an average putter, and that could be how they break.
Out if there's a catalyst, Yeah, right, I mean Victor Hovelin's kind of an example where he was still young, but in twenty twenty three he fixed the chipping a little bit, but really what he credits with a lot of his improved performance was the course management, and that had a significant impact on his en course performance. So if there's some kind of catalyst like that, I'm here
for it. But generally, I think players if we're talking about breakout candidate, it's got to be somebody who's in a little bit more of a ripe age breakout.
Let's just quick.
I think like if we were going to break deem some breakout candidates from last year and a couple buckets, I think like the clear top of the top of the game breakout was Xanderschoffle.
Yeah, no doubt.
Who would you throw into the kind of next bucket.
You're putting me on the spot? I would I'd probably need.
To Sahe Thigala would be a great example of going from kind of a top forty player to a top twenty player.
You could almost put Tyrol Tirol's been a really good player. He kind of took things to a little bit of a different level this year.
I completely agree.
Aaron Raye would be a great example, great a breakout player where went from you know, probably like a top one hundred ish player to top thirty player.
I would also say I would say Davis Thompson is a good example.
Davis Thompson took a pretty.
Big jump and one on the PJA Tour. I would I would describe him as an example. Yeah, those would be a couple of them that come to mind off the top of my head.
Steven Jaeger would be another one. And yeah, I think that essentially, And that was kind of like it was more of like an eighteen months ascension. I think like there are always tea leaves that you can start to like pick out on how how players and like someone like Nick Dunlap, I don't think that really counts as a breakout. He's just really freaking good and started playing professional golf, right, I have him on my breakout list, But well, I think he could break out from last year.
Yeah, okay, okay.
But like you can't count him last year as a breakout player because he he just is really good and played professional golf, right, Does that make sense?
I kind of get what you're going for. But I think he took his profile to another level. I understand he had maybe it didn't have the opportunity to do that before. I still think he had a mini breakout last year. But if we want to talk about him for a second, age was a.
Huge part of let's start the start, we're starting with Nick Dunlap. I completely agree with where you're going with this. Where I think you're going with this.
Yeah, I wasn't planning to start with him, but age is a huge part of this We're here, and the other part I think that will be a through line is speed, and I just am not as likely to deem somebody a breakout candidate if they're consistently giving up distance to the field. Nick Dunlap is a He has plenty of speed, and he is an elite iron player, which are some of the things that translate at the highest level. Like a couple of the notes I had
on Dunlap. First off, he hasn't even turned twenty one yet, so in terms of the development he could go through over the next couple of years, and he could develop for three years and he'll still be on the young end of the spectrum. He gained strokes in a lot of big events, and that's something that I think is a pretty strong signal. I have noted that he was ninth in the field with his approach play at Memorial,
which is about as strong as fields get. If in the field on his approach at the Saint Jude again top fifty players on the PGA Tour, most of the best players in the world. When a golfer is that young, has that kind of speed and is gaining strokes on approach against the best players in the world. There's a pretty strong signal in there that he's a real talent.
I think the other thing when you highlight those two courses and how they might differ from your run in the mill PGA Tour course, he's doing that on courses like Saint Jude is notorious for mid irons. It is a mid iron golf course. Memorial is one of the toughest tee to green tests and there are a lot of mid irons in that test. So when you think about like a Nick Dunlap, to me, like a Nick Dunlap breakout, is he's going ascending into the top twenty
maybe in the world. And also with that is major championship golf, and I think those two golf courses that that mid iron test is a big part of major championship golf where you are going to have longer approaches, and the difference between leading the field and strokes gained approach on a driver wedge course is way different than leading the field or being at the top and being in the top tier of an elite field at a golf course that demands mid and long irons like that
is that is a whole different skill and that's where real great iron players. And this is where like I struggle a lot with like the strokes gained metric in just an aggregate, is that there are so few golf courses that are very demanding still because of how far the t shot goes.
And and how different strengths of fields are. You can't just lump the multi. Gaining strokes at the Rocket Mortgage now is completely different from gaining strokes at Memorial Andy time to So, yeah, there's something that we talked about at the outset of this. Nick done that missed the cut by one, I believe at the Masters this year gained significant strokes with his approach play right one of
the most demanding long iron tests. He also had three double bogies that week over two days and missed the cut on the number by I think it was by one. That's the kind of thing, as you're saying, you can coach away like he's gonna get more familiar with places and learn how to get some of those double bogies out of his range. He's showing that he's making a
bunch of birdies at Augusta. His first time out there, like and he's twenty, I have very high expectations for what nick down Map can do over the next twelve to twenty four months.
I think this gets talked about a little bit, but I and I'd love to see like a statistical breakdown at some point. But what is the advantage you gain as in a second year as a tour professional for not going through like going through these golf courses for a second time seeing a golf course, not being the first time you play at Memorial, not being the first time you play at Riviera, which, like we now look
at the last really like twenty years of Riviera. It's got a skew to be one of the oldest average age winner stops on tour, right, So like what are.
You gaining every year?
Like to me, the things that you would like think statistically you would improve at is on the greens, putting, like understanding where putts break, Understanding the nuances of whole locations because a lot of times whole locations are the same. I think like double bogie avoidance probably goes up because you understand places that you can't miss more, or bogie avoidance maybe would go up. I think like also probably and I don't know, like you would know this more
strokes gamed around the green and strokes gained. Approach would missing understanding where to miss around greens impact your up It would actually impact your around the green play, right.
Yeah, more than the approach play. I mean, because it treats all twenty yard chips the same, so if you're short sighted, it gives it the same expected value to your question there that that could be a good analysis to look at over the next couple of weeks. I think the putting you wouldn't see as much as you might into it because putting tends to be very noisy, and even if you know where an eight and a half footer is breaking versus the year before, actually realizing
that gain isn't going to be that reliable. I could be wrong, but that's my intuition. I think you'd see it a lot in both approach and around the green, especially with grass type. I think that's the biggest thing that I hear from a lot of young golfers is understanding, like what kind of chip shots should I be playing around the greens dependent on the grass type, and understanding
the settings of their wedges. I remember talking to the guy who had just gotten on to tour a couple of years ago, and I was asking him about grass types and he was like, it's all chipping for him.
Yeah, absolutely, so techniques technique, Yeah, you have to you have to approach bermuda. I mean, if you have a really good chipping kit technique, it works on all grasses. But understand developing that technique, understanding how balls are going
to react. It's first bounces, Like it's even like if you're someone who grew up playing golf in California or the Northern Hemisphere, when you play on bermuda, you know, like when you're chipping, you don't realize that you need to look at like the grain of where you're going to land the ball, because if you're landing it into the grain, it might check up a little bit more. If you're landing a down grain, you might not get
that check that you're expecting. And these are the differences between hitting it to three feet and hitting it to six, which makes a huge difference on your your up and down percentage. So I completely agree with with the chipping familiariz familiarizing yourself to grass types like we we see it every year, like there are there are special West Coast putting specialists. When you know you go through the West Coast and you put on the POA, like there
are absolutely players that put better on that. I remember for years brand Seneteker, who was a great putter, but like his West Coast putting stats were incredible, and a lot of it was that the ways stroked and hit putts. He hit him with a little bit more authority. And when you get in the afternoons on some POA that can get ropie. Sometimes Poe's as good as it gets. I want to be clear, Like some of the best
putting surfaces in the world are poeana. But you know, like DJ always putted really well on the West Coast, which is like surprising given he's from South Carolina. But then you've got guys like Sam Burns who have won almost all of his events.
That he's won.
I've been on Bermuda right, I was looking a player on my list, and I doubt he'll be on your list. Is Joe high Smith not on my list? Uh so he's a young player. Last year he was a rookie, and I think last year being a rookie was extraordinarily hard. You did not know when you were playing. You with the with the reef jiggering of the tour, you had more veterans and high priority players playing more regular events
than ever, you know, like they were almost mandatory. So what we saw was less and less player less and less starts for rookies.
It was an.
Extremely difficult year and I think like he had he had some good moments. He had he was in contention, had some bad Sundays, but then he came into the fall. He was well outside the one twenty five. I think it was around one sixty four, and he worked his way up into one ten and in the fall he finished. It's a diverse set of golf courses. He played six events, five of them he finished in the top sixteen. He was a factor on Sunday at a lot of them.
Huge college player at Pepperdine, one of the best in college golf just a couple of years ago, and he was six in birdie average as a rookie. So again looking at that birdie average, gets to go around these golf courses for a second time, guaranteed starts, he knows where he's playing. I think this is a huge It could be a year where he goes from. I think he's like around one to ten in the FedEx Cup this year. He could be a top seventy player next year.
I like this call. Mean he played way better in the fall than he did, way better towards the beginning of the year. It'd be interesting to hear what his perspective is on that his putting was pretty bad all year, which is kind of a positive sign. And if the ball striking is good right Like the ball striking he gained on his approach a lot of weeks, so he's an interesting name to keep an eye on. Has a little bit of distance off the ted, decent ball speed,
so we'll see. I don't I don't mind that call at all. Young twenty four, Yeah, twenty four? Yeah, can I give you a young name.
Yeah.
I'm pretty excited to see what Tom mckibbon's got. Tom McKibben is twenty one, he's about to turn twenty two. Northern Ireland, Hollywood. I don't know if he'll be the best player to ever come out of Hollywood, but we'll see.
He think he's the Pavon of this year. I would have been a breakout player last year.
Matthew Pavaughan is what thirty one like, that's I think we got to keep that in mind. Like Tom McKibben hasn't turned twenty two yet. He was a very steady performer on the DP World Tour this year. He played in twenty five events on the DP World Tour, not counting majors, had nine top tens, missed just four cuts. He gained Sorry, he made cuts in both majors that he played this year, the US Open and the Open Championship.
He was on the wrong side of the split at Troon, which was a huge waves split and he still made the cut. Not even twenty two yet, has a lot of speed, really good iron player. The iron play kind of dropped off towards the end of the year, but I think there's some flashes in here. He shows some signs of being somebody that could develop for the next two years and we'll see how his game translates at
strong fields. I mean again, the two made cuts and majors, like even at Pinehurst game strokes both off the tee and approach that was his major championship debut. I think there's something to keep an eye on here, just.
From insiders I've spoken to game might be better suited for America. Hits it high, might not have that much trajectory control.
And when you know.
PGA Tour golf courses are kind of about hitting it far and high. You know that is that is a general uh uh strategy type of golf that that lends itself well in America. So yeah, I think, like I think my hesitation always with young Europeans is going to be the I mean, this is a big change, So it's a hard thing.
You're you're moving away, You're.
You're far away, and you're like the outsider on a tour that's predominantly full of Americans who have played golf together for a very long time and have known each other for a really long time. So I think that is one of the underlying And like, let's be clear, he probably knows Rory McElroy the best of anybody, of
anyone being from Hollywood. I don't know if that's actually true, but probably some reasonable they aren't ever going to be playing the same tournaments, like they're going to play maybe four or five of the same tournaments, like they'll play in Palm Beach together. But like he is not going to be you know, teeing it up at at the you know, at this on the same schedule. So I think that that is that is always my concern with young Europeans, is just assimilating to the American game.
Yeah, that's a concern. And then I'd say some some of the weaknesses in the iron play. I mean, the beginning of the year was really good and then it dropped off, and in previous years it hasn't been great. So that's gonna be a huge thing to keep an eye on. He's going to have the speed, but can he hit his irons well enough to take it to the next level. We'll see. Do you have another name? Yeah?
I got another name here I'm gonna and this was I think one that you could kind of say broke out this year. I think I I expect him to take another leap here this year and become one of the best players in the world. That is Akshay, Batilla, Akshay. If you boil down what happened this year, why he became all sudden prevalent on basically every leader you know, like all sorts of leader boards. It was simple. He switched to the broom putter, and turned his biggest weakness
into a strength. So he picked up over a or just about a shot on the greens from last year. He went from negative a half shot to plus point three four five, so zero point eight five gain in almost a full shot per round better on the greens than the year before because of the broom. But if you look at his numbers, he actually he actually regressed off the tee, which was surprising, Like you know, when you look at it, he regressed basically off the tea
and approach. And I have a theory that he spent a lot of time getting comfortable with the broom putter, spent a lot of time working on his putting, and sometimes with golf, what happens when you spend a lot of time working on something else, other things can slip
just a little. And if he picks up basically the third shot that he lost from tea to green, that he you know, he is all a sudden a world beater, you know, because he'd be a very good off the tee player, above average approach player, and a really strong putter like that is a great recipe and I think it's one that could see him be a top fifteen player.
In the world.
I mean, I like the auc shake call, especially given his age. It wouldn't shock me if some of the drop off and the ball striking is actually just from playing stronger fields in the way that that's showing up in the data versus actually getting worse in those categories.
So that'd be something interesting to look into. Maybe it's just a lefty thing, but the way he hits shots off the tea does kind of remind me of Bubba, and I'm kind of interested to see if he has success at similar courses that Bubba had, so like, I'm excited to see him play Riviera and he made the cut at the Masters this year. That was his Master's debut,
if I'm not mistaken, Yeah it was. It was Like, I actually think that's kind of an interesting golf course for ok Shay if the iron play continues to improve and he has these different shots in his bag, the courses where you need those shots like Augusta, I think he's kind of a sneaky candidate. Not to get in the mix necessarily next year at Augusta, but to be somebody that five years from now we look back like, hey, he's put together a pretty pretty good track record of this course.
Right now around the greens. He's he's basically too or average. He's basically a zero zero player. You could see a realm of possibility with with with him, which is rare, and he's still young, I mean, like he should be a senior in college. Is like the other thing about Akha, Like, imagine if he was in PGA tour, you what we'd be talking about. You know, but he's been playing pro
golf for four years basically. But he's one of those rare players where you could see someone who could be a top thirty player in every statistical category.
That you know.
That kind of reminds me of yep, Xander Schaffle, like where all of a sudden you start to look at it and it's like, Okay, if this guy just makes some small incremental gains each year, that that is a skill set of a top five player in the game.
When you you know, the thing that.
I think every great player really has in common is that they don't have real holes in their game. And you can say, oh, Scotti's potter as a whole, Well, he's got such extraordinary other attributes that he can afford a little bit of a hole and that's like probably the best place to have a hole. Yes, But like when you start to look at like players that can and be great players they have it is not like we need to turn this guy from a blow average
approach player into a great approach player. It's we need to take this guy from you know, thirtieth fortieth in approach play to twentieth and from you know, twenty fifth and off the tee to fifteenth and then all of a sudden you've got the ingredients with the if the putter stays at above average tour player level.
Yeah, I mean you're mentioning Scott. Yeah, I think something to always think about a little bit, especially where we've I think trained our brains to be very strokes gained focused thinking about strokes gained, approach and around the green together, I think can be a useful exercise where if you don't hit a great approach shot, you can generally bail yourself out with a really strong around the green shot. So Scotty always kind of has that working in his favor.
I think with Akshay, what you would want to look at is, Okay, he's not necessarily elite iron player, like can he bail himself out around the greens when he doesn't hit a great approach shot and is around the green play, like you mentioned, is pretty much to our average. So it'll be interesting to see how he develops in those two skill areas.
I think that around the green play is something that like you are going to get better at as you age because of what you just lay what you just laid out earlier about grass types, it's like grass types technique understanding and the more it's really that is one of the few I would say that one of the few areas in the game where experience is just like so so important still is just understanding the more, the more shots you play, the more situations you're in, just
lend itself so much to around around the green play.
You know.
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All right, I have three more do you want? There's that least, I have a high profile one that I definitely want to get to, and then two younger.
Let's keep going. We'll keep going. We can all right, all the time. There's no time limits here.
I think Will's Ala Taurus for me. I know that some people might say he can't be a breakout candidate, because.
I think he can.
In my mind, Will's Ala Torus might be like the most underrated player right now by like official World Golf rankings or like a Data Golf ranking or FedEx Cup. He's sixty third in the world right now in the official World Golf rankings, and he's just dealt with a lot of injury. If we get Will's Ala Taurus back and healthy, we know that he's one of the top players in the world, especially on demanding setups where you
really have to flash that elite iron play Andy. Twenty twenty one was his first year playing like a full schedule of majors. Basically since that time, he has three top tens at Augusta. He missed a year, so he's three for three top tens out Augusta since twenty twenty one. That's as many as any other player has, and that's with Will missing all of twenty twenty three with injury. He's become basically one of the best golfers at Augusta.
He's second in strokes gained per round in the Master since twenty twenty one, only Scott He's better than he is, and then there's a pretty big drop off after Will almost won a couple of majors already, like he was close to in the same year at Southern Hills and at Brookline. Feels like somebody where if he's healthy, which he really hasn't been the last year and a half,
but I think he's starting to feel better. It sounds like I think he could be a top ten player in the world, and that's maybe a term we throw around too casually. I know I've been guilty of that but I do think Will Zlataurus is truly a top ten player in the world when he's healthy.
The health is the thing, right And my I guess my big question where we saw the leap with Zalatorus was he came back from an offseason with more speed. Sean Martin wrote an article about this while it happened on PGA tour dot com.
But he had picked up fifteen.
Yards or so off the tee and it really, like, you know, when you pick up that yardage, it just unlocks your other skills even more. It just makes Will zalators an even more deadly iron player because he's fifteen yards closer. And I think the thing that if you look deep into the numbers last year, he came out of the gates pretty hot, like he played really well at riv he played. He had like a pretty good
early season. I think he had he had some injury issues in some complications in the back half of the year, but even early in the year, the speed wasn't really there yet. And I think that speed is the difference between that top ten type player and the top thirty player we saw before the speed increase, So to me, it's so is health dependent and beyond just like staying healthy, it's being healthy enough with the changes in his golf swing,
and like, this is a big question I have. Do the changes in his golf swing impact the ability for him to swing and produce the speed numbers that we saw when he was at his best, because that would be where my question marks with zal Toros are.
But what yes, I'm with you, But what I think is encouraging is that towards the end of this year his speed numbers kind of got back up, and so he finished, like you mentioned, second at Riviera this year, and that was without his speed really being no speed. He finished t. Nine at the Masters this year probably
questionable health and didn't have his speedback. So if he's doing this without the speed and now the speed numbers are starting to come back, if he says going into twenty twenty five that he feels fully healthy, he's somebody like I'm seeing him around like thirty to forty one, forty to one to win the Masters, Like I think you can do worse than that. It feels like we might be talking about Wills al Torris as one of the front runners. If he comes out at the start of twenty twenty five healthy.
Absolutely.
I think, like you know, if I talked about players of this generation that I think it's always interesting at golf tournaments who you follow, like you like set out with intentions of following people, and then you have other people you have no intention of following.
Wills l.
Torus is someone that I just always gravitate towards to watch because it is it's an experience that the ball striking, the level, the level of talent from tea to green is so so high, and it is I think like when you're talking about people that can match him tee to green, it is about as short of a list as you would get.
Like I think like.
When he's cooking, it's it's pretty much scotty and maybe Victor Mark how doesn't have the gas pedal he has is the thing.
Yeah, it is like more cow just like it is truly.
An extraordinary, extraordinary Like he is one of the best players to watch play live golf in the world, and so I really hope that he is back. I also, he's got a swagger about him. He's got like a little a little bit of uh, I guess I could swear on this.
He's got a little fuck.
You in his game, like like where like he knows he's good and like that cockiness to me is like such an important skill for a world class player. Like he's had his near misses, and I don't think there is a shred of self belief issue with him. Like you see a lot of players that come up short a lot of times and have heartbreaking losses that being a big problem. I do not think that is the slightest issue with his kind of mental makeup.
The last thing I'll mention about Will that I don't think should go underrated is his course management. He's been very much at the forefront of optimal strategy, right of hitting approach shots aggressive to conservative targets, right, Like that's the line that often gets used, as it should.
He's the OG decade disciple.
Yeah, yeah, I think one thing I've always like laughed at.
They tells you if you've heard of that before.
I've heard not as much recently, but I used to hear it all the time. I sometimes see people tweet like Strokes gained numbers in major and they talk about how Will's alataurus elevates his game in majors versus in regular events. But some of that is the golf how demanding the golf courses and how they let you separate yourself, but also that those important course management principles will materialize
more on setups where short sighting yourself is terrible. Right like Augusta National Will's Alataurus gets to really separate himself, not just with his elite iron play, but with his course management. So that's something I'd always keep in mind with him if he's healthy. He's just a weapon in all facets, maybe minus the short range putting and some short He's not an elite short game artist, but just so good with his irons that I would never discount him.
I'll never forget.
I had dinner with Jeff Ogilvie once and he said to me, the biggest shame in professional golf is that fans don't get to see players consistently do everything they can do because venues, right on a regular basis, don't demand them like that. That's always stuck with me, and it's, you know, it's why venues matter. Everybody that says they don't like venue, the great venues demand a different level of shot making and and have a sterner set of consequences when that shot making is not met.
All right, you want to keep it rolling?
Yeah, let's keep going, all right, I got I got one. He's thirty one, which is going to immediately turn you off to him.
Maybe he's got injuries or something, and there's a there's a catalyst.
What we got, Kurt Kitti Yama?
Okay, okay, let's hear it.
So, Kurt Kitty Yama is it's just a statistical anomaly. I think he finished like seventieth in the FedEx Cup, seventy fourth in the FedEx Cup, but when you zoom in, he was sixteenth and off the tee and tenth in strokes gained approach. Truly elite numbers, Like there are not two There are not many guys in the Like the people that rank in the top twenty of those two
categories are like the best golfers in the world. Now what Kirkidiama finished one hundred and seventy first in putting, like so one of the worst putters in the world.
But I am going to be I just am going to buy. I'm buying.
When you're elite off the tee and approaching the green, you are better than seventy fourth.
He's just not. He's not the seventy fourth best player on.
The PGA Tour statistically, and I don't buy that that's there. He's twenty eighth in strokes gain total, so like clear discrepancy with where he finished. So I think just like a couple more putts go in this year, like if he goes if he got to one twenty and putting, he'd be probably playing at Eastlake.
He two thoughts on I don't have a ton of thoughts on Kidiyama, but I two right off the top. One, he always shows up in some of the advanced accuracy numbers I have as he's a sprayer. Yeah, he's complete sprayer, and that is a limiting factor, right, Like it doesn't always show up in strokes gain like it should, but when you're spraying the ball way offline in your long he's kind of got the Bryson profile a little bit where when it gets offline, Like, there are certain golf
courses that are just gonna kick his butt. One one note in the positive category. I'm not gonna try to get into the business of ranking golf instructors too much, but I believe he's recently been working with Chris Como, and I do like a lot of what comes out of sessions with Chris Como some more speed, yeah, and like gaining it through technique. He just seems to have the right mindset for how he approaches his the golfers
that he's instructing. I think that's a legitimate thing to keep an eye on, right, I mean, Xander went to Como and got a lot better. You can find examples of players who have done better and worse for every coach. But I do think, yeah, I think that's actually a pretty interesting angle, especially because I think for a lot of this year, Kidiyamo is actively changing things, which might if he goes into twenty twenty five with some of those changes solidified, then maybe that's a catalyst Andy to
take his game to another level. So I'm not sure I'm with you, but I think there are at least reasons to believe that he can assent.
I mean, like you think, I'm not saying he's gonna win a major. I'm just saying he's not the seventy fourth best on the PGA Tour.
I agree, I agree like Hill, I know I did, he did.
He's Yeah, I just think he's he should be he to me, like he profiles as someone with like the PGA Tour courses and the way they're set up Tory Pines. Yeah, like there are a lot of courses that fit this profile even if he sprays it, there are a lot of great places to play on the PGA Tour as a sprayer. He's basically Luke list Yes with he's his
So his nickname in college went to UNLV. His nickname in college was the Project because like the members I guess apparently the members of the course that they were at were like, we don't see it with this kid, Like he's just not not good. So I think he's like one of those like kind of late bloomers in general. Still figure like still like I think like this is the thing, like why age is a little bit different
than other sports. This is not we aren't projecting out NBA players where age is a huge thing and everybody's like falling in love with Dalton connect and it's like, Okay, Dalton Connects twenty.
Four basketball player for the record, Yeah.
He's playing on the Lakers and he's shooting threes, he's making he's been impressive, but it's like, Okay, a lot of these other guys, I'll take over Dalton Connect in four years, you know, or five years with.
A nineteen year I think the Bulls have a nineteen year old.
It's like he scored twenty the other night, and it's like, well, what's he look like in five years? And that's where what Dalton Connect is it now. And it's a great fit for the Lakers. But with golf. Like golf, you kind of like for most of these guys, you have like three good years really like three years make your career. You know, the outliers have ten, fifteen, twenty years, three years,
like where are your best three years? And to me, Kurt Kidiyama might not have had his best three years as a tour pro.
I mean he's been getting better too, Andy, So if he if his best year is next year, like that is not out of the realm of possibilities, And like you're mentioning with the ball striking numbers, like I don't think he's going to get to the point where he's consistent a consistent top player, but he could spike like he could win a big event.
Tenth in approach to the greens nuts.
Yeah, I mean a lot of that's it looks like it's in pretty weak tournaments. But I hear you, all right, can I've got two more.
I think all he has to do is like win two events, win win an event. And he's in East like this.
Year to say all you gotta do is win two events. You're saying that, I step back.
I stepped back from that mitt as I was saying it, I do. I was gott. I had a step. I had taken a step too far, half step too far?
All Right, I got two more names. Really interested in what you think of this first one. Some friends of the program are really high on this kid, notably Lawrence Donnegan and Mike Clayton, Breda Golf podcasts, Elvis Smiley, Oh all right, European Tour. He young, twenty two and most of his results.
Did you watch any of the Australian stuff I did? Yeah, he was good, he.
Looked And That's where I'm going with this. So, I mean the last few years of his career. I mean, he's really young, but it hasn't been anything too notable. And then bang, starting this October, he got hot and in his last seven starts he has six top tens. Now, most of these are the PGA Tour Australasia, which is not that strong of fields, but he won. He did
win the Australian PGA, which was very impressive win. He was in the final group with Cam Smith, and that's a golfer that I know he has a relationship with and I'm sure looks up to like stood toe to toe with him and took him down. He's got a lot of pop And I do respect the opinions of the friends of the program here. They think like this is potential Adam Scott type of trajectory and it's a long ways away from that. Like that's the part I want.
To that's all, Like, I I love the optivism.
I hear you.
Adam Scott was out on tour when he was eighteen.
That's that's the part we got to keep in mind here.
It's like playing he was like contending in massive events at nineteen.
I'm with you. I mean, he's older than Tom mckibbon, right, who's done a lot more already than Elvis Smiley has. But I do think this, if the breakout's going to happen, we should probably see it this year because he's going to be playing DP World tour, and those are fields that are a clear step below PGA Tour signature fields clearly and even non signature. So if Elvis Smiley's going to be a good golfer, we should see it in twenty twenty five.
Yeah, I don't. I don't hate that. All right, Let's talk about Stripe. Our friends is Stripe. This is one of our longest partners. I was so excited when they reached out about partnering because it's easy to partner with companies you love. I'm especially thankful to them this holiday season.
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usage based billing, invoicing, or anything in between. So if you're interested in looking into how Stripe can help your business and it definitely can, visit stripe dot com. Here's here's a question. Do you think there's still breakout potential? I have him on my list for Davis Thompson to keep going absolutely?
Why even are you guarded there with your optimism?
So I have him on my list.
He's obviously thirty fourth, and like my question is, like, do you see a world where Davis Thompson's one of the twenty fifteen to twenty best players in the world,
because that's where he has to break out to. And I think it's like a good question, and because like you get to a certain level and I think, like that's like almost like you know, every level up you go is so so hard, Like you know, I think about a guy like Stepstraca, I mean he's been kind of floating in this like twenty to fi range of a player for probably three years now, and I don't I don't see any more upward mobility for him. Like I think he's he's where he is and he's probably
got one or two more years. This is spoken from someone a couple of years made three years ago, four years ago, on this very topic of this podcast, said Sepstraca is better than he is playing. You know, he was a breakout candidate a couple of years ago. I think I was a year early on him. But anyways, like I don't think there's any more room for Sepstraca,
but Davis Thompson I believe in. And this is strictly based off of performances at US Open, at the US Open, and it goes back to like he contended at wing Foot as an amateur. This year he finished at the top ten at Pinehurst. And to me, like someone who's contended, who's like played, who's been a real figure in two US Opens, what was.
The I'm not I don't think he contended at the at wings Foot.
He was he was the first round leader.
Okay, he missed the cut.
I know, but he was the first round leader.
I'm sure are we calling that? All right? All right, maybe we're calling that content?
Like I think he was relevant. He missed the cut, but he was on the leaderboard. Like I just play stock in these things.
I'm with you on Davis Thompson overall.
So anyways, like I do like I think Davis Thompson can be a could be a top fifteen player in golf if he gets there. It's so hard to get there. And this is where like at this point, like once somebody gets to Okay, he finished thirty fourth in the FedEx Cup, what's a breakout from there? Like it's got to be like can he be a top fifteen player?
Yeah? I mean for what it's where it's I don't know that FedEx Cup is always going to.
Be the one John Deere.
That's what I was gonna say. Like he won the John Deere, which gave him a bunch of points, so like that's why he's there. There's a lot of room to go up, like in my mind if he finishes thirtieth next year, but there those finishes come in more high profile events like that can qualify as as breaking out a little bit and as much as we like to dunk on the John Deere and other events like that that are weak fields, which they are, he still looked he played very very well.
He blew out John Deere. Like that's another aspect of.
The way. I think, like there are not you know, like he he won.
By I think like five or it wasn't yeah, yeah, all Sunday he was just breezing through, you know that.
And again I think the top ten at Pinehurst shows a lot, shows a lot of promise.
And the first round we'll always have the first round at wing Foot too.
I'll give that some merrit. I was too dismissive of that last name I have, Andy. I think Rasmus Hoyguard is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He had a very solid year this year, notably won the Irish Open, took Rory down in the pretty dramatic final round. But Rasmus is somebody who's kind of won at every level.
He's still twenty three. He was a great amateur. He's won in these different I mean he's been on the DP World Tour for a little bit pretty much, has won every year, steadily gotten better, a lot of pop off the tee, and he's gained strokes on his approach pretty much every event going back to early in this year. I think he's somebody to keep an eye on. Rasmus.
Maybe I don't know if you'd say that he's not on Based on his amateur pedigree, you thought he'd be further along by now, but like maybe it's taken a little longer, but really strong year and now he's twenty three, looking at having a PGA Tour card for twenty twenty five. Wouldn't be shocked to see him make a little bit of a jump.
I mean, I think he's probably had untiled in as a Ryder cupper at this point, like expected, I mean potential. I four years ago when you first started hearing about the hoyguards. Rasmus was the name, right, Everybody's like, Rasmus is really good. Nikola I they weren't sure of. And you know Nicola is now bona fide PGA Tour player. I mean Nikola is.
An interesting name too. For a little bit of a leap, I think he's like that.
That's you know, you talk about playing as a rookie, like playing as a rookie with with a twin brother that's playing in Europe that you've played golf with your entire life and being part Like I have to think that that's going to be a better situation for Nickolai this year playing on tour with his brother in America like that just like generally is worth something like so contend, yeah, I I listen, Like he'd beat Rory at uh at
Rogue County down. This is a bonafide win, right, like bonafide if the.
Second at THEDP World Tour Championship, like he's got he had eight top tens this year.
And I again, like I go back to it, like four years ago, everybody's like watch out for Rasmus. They didn't talk about Nikolai and maybe like things happen, you go through blips you get, you struggle with things, you you might not be in the right headspace to play great golf. And I think that can you know, with the sport getting younger and younger, this is just going
to be more and more prevalent. Like where like you're twenty two and maybe some stuff in your personal life are is challenging or you're going through a tough like you're not as equipped as someone. Like the sport used to be like you're thirty five and you're grade. Now it's like you're twenty five and if you're not great, it's like what happened? So I remembered there was a headline and I can't remember where it was. Like, you know,
like veteran. They could describe somebody as a PGA Tour veteran in US, like he's twice six and a tour for three years, like that used to be that would be a feed up, you know, PGA tour veteran wins twight six.
It's like Joaquin Neman, right or Sung Jay. Sung Jay is a great example of that where he's he feels like a veteran, he's still young.
That way.
Yeah, Yeah, I just think he's the sort gonna be in the majors next year. That that is a big he's forty fourth in the world, like he's gonna he's never played the Masters, for example, Like he's gonna play in the Masters, so he's gonna have the opportunity to show himself a little bit.
I think the other thing that like just in general, the European Tour is is just a better tour than the corn Ferry Tour in terms of like the venues they play and they have like bona fide pros. We saw this last year year and I would not be shocked this. It was the first year that they had the ten spots and those ten dramatically outplayed the corn
Faery players that came in. And there's there's a multitude of reasons, but like just in general, the ten spots that are coming from from the the European Tour are better players than the corn Fairy Tour, Like they're better at golfers. So I expect like there might be corn Faery Tour players that are like you're you're not going to see a Scottie Scheffler come from the European Tour, right, probably not, but you are going to see just year and year out. My guess is just better play from
those ten new players than the corn Fairy players. They've played better golf courses. There are a lot of really bad golf courses on the corn Fery Tour, and they are effectively putting contests that determine who comes to the PGA Tour.
I think that's going to be really interesting to see how that was top ten performers from the DP World Tour doe versus top ten from the KFT. I know it's more than ten who gets status from the KFT, but it's gonna be really interesting to look at those side by side. I mean, another golfer not on my breakout list, Andy, but like Rio, he said Sonne, who's the rookie of the Year on the DP World Tour two years ago and then had status on the PGA Tour last year. He didn't have a great year on
the PGA Tour. But you're talking about somebody in that pipeline now who's only twenty two. I'm not sure i'd tab him as a breakout candidate, but just kind of interesting within that mold of everything you're saying of DP World Tour potentially being better preparation and he's got a year under his belt as a PGA Tour rookie. Just another name to keep an eye on.
I think people love from what I've heard, people love Frankie Sappin.
Yeah, third, he finished third this year on the KFT, right.
Yeah, people like love him. He could be one name from the corn Ferry. Obviously we already saw McCarty win. Uh.
Yeah.
I think I think like that there are always going to be young studs that are coming up from from the uh like Kevin You would be a good example of another player that I think has another level to go up that obviously one in the fall, but I think he could continue to get better. I think that's that's a top thirty player in the world. He's been extraordinary at the level of play.
Top thirty. You're going, Kevin You, top thirty player in the world. I mean, he's been great. He's been great everywhere, like every level. He was great as a freshman Arizona State, like he's he's been awesome. He's an awesome golfer like that, and I think like he's gone basically as quickly from college golf to PGA Tour golf as you can go without having some like freak some like you know, ridiculous like run right. He's just basically just progressed as quickly as.
You can can progress.
And I think I'm not expressing skepticism. I just think that's that's an interesting call. It's a big call.
Well, I think like this year, I think I just like expect him to keep progressing. So like, if you think about like the progression, it's he went from PJ Tour you I think he was like three or four immediately to tour card and then you know, I think he's going which PJ Tour you got him a corn Faery card, which then he took parlayed the corn Fairy card into a tour card after a full year. Then
last year was his first year on tour. He wins in the fall, that bumps him up into a new level of golf, and I think like from there, now, like let's just call him a top seventy player on tour. I think from there the next step is like I think he could make He's.
Like, I like this call, that's a fun one. I don't think most people would consider Kevin you a potential top thirty player next year. So that's a fun one to track, all right.
Uh, who do you have one more?
That's it? Mckibbon, Dunlap, Rasmus, Elvis and Zaltaur's.
All right, so I have high Smith, Davis Thompson, Akshay, Kurt Kadiyama and uh and Kevin Yu. Real American bias right there. Seriously can get yelled at. I was thinking about putting Tom Dietree on mine, just because he's bound to win one. He's bound to win. The guy can could only rack up so of a top five finishes in his in his lifetime. He has to win once.
He shows so many flashes. It just hasn't come together. I worry a little bit about him at thirty two, about turn thirty two, but we'll see.
I mean, we have a University of Illinois product. Every time he's on a leader board, it pops in my college college chain. And they have even picked up on just we shouldn't even talk about this guy until Saturday.
Saturday it's over.
He seems delightful. I'd love to see it. That's when I'm a little skeptical of just based on the track.
I almost put it on there just to be Homer.
I think that was probably wise omission.
Do you you don't have any cootie stock as a Texas alum, Pearson to.
Try to separate my roots from I try out to be biased in that direction. I would love to see either of the cooties breakout. I think they both have a long way to go right now, Frankly, all right.
Joseph, look forward to reading more of your stuff in the newsletter on the website, and we'll talk to you again sometime soon.
Sounds good.
Thanks for having me, Andy, all right, big thanks to our producer PJ.
Clark for editing and producing this podcast. You know, as I mentioned in the advertisement for our partner Stripe, we have a membership. This is a great holiday gift. If you're already a member, thank you. But if you're a member and you have a golf loving friend or family member that you think would like CLUBTFE, we have a gift option. You can go onto the fridagg dot com slash membership and you can gift a membership to CLUBTFE to a loved one, a friend, whatever it may be.
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