2018 Waste Management Open Preview and Picks

I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset.

When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset.

And when I find my.

Ball in a brid egg Friday egg, the dreaded Friday egg, Frida Egg Frida egg.

Bride egg Lie, I'm about ready to run off.

The golf course.

All right, Polly and Kyle, We're back for another podcast about fantasy golf and this week's waste management open. How are you guys doing, Hey.

Guys, what's up?

Not too much? How about you?

I'm reveling in the fact that caddies might be overrated. Jason Day capturing the w Unfortunately, his withdrawal from the Tuesday Pro or Wednesday Pro am threw me for a loop and made me change my pick. Very very sad weekend watching him win.

Hindsight's a little bit twenty twenty right there, right.

Hey, our listeners know I picked him.

I don't blame you, though. There was literally probably a seventy percent chance he was not going to finish two rounds, and obviously the other thirty percent was that he does and he wins, and he played great, I mean, three incredible rounds.

Yeah, I think about it after the first day. You weren't that mad, though, Andy, right, I mean he was a couple over par, right, I think, And you're thinking I might have missed the cut and then all of a sudden puts together a heck of around on the north course on Friday, and all of a sudden backing attention.

Yeah, I just have been I think the last time I picked Jason Day, he withdrew mid tournament. So I've just been, you know, foiled by Jason Day and his injuries, his flukey injuries for two years.

Every time he.

Shoots seventy three to open up at the Farmers, we need to hammer him to win because that he did that a couple of years ago. Too.

Well, I think it's another the fourth or fifth year in a row you've had somebody that shot even or worse in the first round win the event.

It's it's not good to have the fifty four hole lead, for sure. What did you guys think of Tiger?

I was really impressed go ahead ball.

I think it was a little surprising the fact that going into it we expected his short game to kind of be the problem, when in reality his short game was pretty good. Now it might have been because the rough was long, and he was able to kind of get up and down from that, kind of like we talked in the pod last week. But surprising me was that he was actually more inaccurate off the tea than I thought he was going to be.

Yeah, I thought Thursday he drove it really, really well, and I mean he was pummeling his T shots.

You know, it's hard to tell.

I didn't always know what Hoffman and Reid were hitting off the tee, but I mean Tiger was the last to play almost every time that first day, and I mean piping his T shots. And then obviously the driver got away from him the next three days. But the short game, I'm not one hundred percent sold on yet because he did miss the green three or four times, but he did. I mean, granted, he got up and down all day long. I mean, scrambling was terrific. So

I like that. Justin ray stat that I put in the newsletter this morning that had his strokes gained for the week was he was essentially what brooks Kopka was all last year. So if he plays like if he plays like that, he's gonna win some tournaments probably, right. Yeah.

The only misleading thing a little bit from this past week is that they didn't have strokes gain stats in the North course, so it is only from the three rounds of the South course. So that's just something to keep in mind as we kind of go through the fantasy for this week as well.

So going into fantasy runner up, Alex Norn, who has no course history here much like the Farmers, is in the field again, but you know a bunch of other big names. Alex Norn, are you you riding the hot hand this week?

I don't know if this course suits him? His suits him that well. The one interesting fact about last week is even though he was in the playoff, he actually lost strokes gain putting last week at Tori. So that's how good he hit the ball in the win last week. So the only question is this week heading you know, the Phoenix Open, it's typically one by guys that are making a lot of mid range birdie putts because you know the winner's gonna have twenty about twenty birdies for the week probably.

But I mean, given Deci's success at in Phoenix and he he's not known for his putting prowess. When that, you know, the great ball strikers really kind of come to the top, rise to the top here.

Potentially. But I mean you're looking kind of at like an individual basis there. Decky's actually I think, you know, putted pretty decent there in the past. I think his last his last three years, he's actually gained strokes putting at Phoenix. So that's kind of the reason that he's not the reason he's won, but he just had he

So are the stats you're looking at this week approach and putting for the most part or.

For Phoenix Open I usually don't actually look at that many stats. I kind of look based upon It's more of a field tournament for me in terms of how I think guys games apply to this golf court and kind of looking at course history a little bit because it's still early in the year, so it's really tough to track, you know, what their current stats are, especially when you had the strokes gain stats of the career build a couple of weeks ago, we only had it

So HIDUCKI coming in hasn't finished outside the top four, you know, is he Obviously he's going to be a chalky pick two time defending champion. Are you riding him or are you looking to go contrarian this week?

It's gonna be pretty hard for me to fade him this week just because he's gone he said two wins I think, a second and a fourth here, and each of those four years he's had at least nineteen birdies

The top, Fowler being one of them.

Fowler follower is really good course history here. Yeah, and I think he may go a touch under owned, even though his price is pretty low this week. Just because he missed the cut last week, people kind of you know, get burned by him and may not put him in their lineup. They may, you know, choose somebody else. So I think he's definitely the out option this week. Yeah.

It is Folllower's first miss cut since last June, and I was looking, I was writing the newsletter this morning on the plane that was on. He's He's racked up nine top ten finishes in his last fourteen starts. It's not not too shabby with him only miss cut coming last week.

Yeah, And it's one of those things like if you're looking on a drafting side, you know, he's a leve one hundred dollars lesson Manciya'm on one thousand dollars lesson speed. So that's that's a lot of our salary savings in the drafting side.

So you got you got five of the top seven players in the world outside of Matsuyama Fowler, you got Spieth Ram, Justin Thomas also in the field, and then I mean there's a really really good field. Who else do you like kind of of the bigger names in this event.

Of the bigger names, I would probably I had to pick up a third person beside the DECI and follow, I would probably go Ram. And I think the reason behind that is people kind of saw that he really struggled this past weekend and that may kind of push

For you. Yeah, I saw he lost like six shots on the greens the last two rounds, which.

Yeah, I think you lost something similar to that actually approaching the green, which is which is where he's usually you know, his best part of his game is usually his you know, short mid irons.

So I think then there's a pretty next clear tier where you've got You've got Leishman, Berger, Noorrin, Final Simpson who has great course history. JB. Holmes who might get booed in it when he gets in sixteen, Gary Woodland, Phil and Coocher who do you like from here?

I would probably go web in this group. So Webb has been you know, kind of figured out his potter back in the fall season in the beginning of this year, and you know, I think you lost in a playoff here last year to a decy, So I'd be looking for him to continue that success this week most likely.

Oh Woodland. Woodland played well last week.

I know he got off to a rough start yesterday, but he seems just seems to be a course that would fit him well.

Possibly. I mean, for some reason he likes playing at Toy a lot, just based upon the way the t shots set up. So when he was playing at Tory, all the holes that are dogged like left rights a little bit are holes you have to driver and the holes that are working right left you had a layup on. So that really suits his game, whereas here he hasn't had that much success. He only has one top ten finish and in eight starts and has missed two of his last three cuts here.

So that's crazy.

I wouldn't necessarily pick him as the best option this week.

It's Austin Cook getting a big, big salary at eighty three hundred, highest rookie on the board. Obviously he's played really well, but ahead of you know, Ryan Moore, some other guys like Chapel Paton Kazaire. What do you think about these guys in this area.

Yeah, I like Austin Cook this week. One of my comp players that I do for rookies, I try to compare who are they really like on the PGA Tour and try to look at what courses that that PJA

Yeah, he's got good course history here, right, JB.

Yeah, he's He's one year twice as a couple of other high finishes. The only issue I have is that he usually does it based on ball striking. And if we look at last week at Tory, he gained ten and a half shots on the greens putting last week at Tory in those three rounds of the soft course, and he was only he was less than a shot above the above field average in all the parts of the game combined. So if he's not hitting the ball that great, they may not work out. Weilet Phoenix Open.

It was weird. I looked up driving distance stats and JAV Holmes was like, he was like forty seventh in driving distance. I don't know what was going on. Was he not hitting driver a lot last week?

No?

I think the driving distant stats are only based I think on two or three T balls if I if I'm correct, So that might have been one where if he hits in the rough, he's not getting the twenty thirty yards a role.

Yeah, that's true.

So small sample size you get some weird results sometimes, so kind.

Of getting down more into like where we're looking at sleepers in you know, seventy seven hundred and below are what are some guys that you've got got marked? Our boy JJ Spahn had another I think top ten this week.

Huh Yeah, I'm liking JJ spawn he played here last year, had a top five finish and it was second in the field in Birdies are Better, which is obviously great for draftings. And the other guy I liked in this area is Ali Schneider Jans who earned a lot of people, including myself in some lineups last week. But he has the upside to where he's a guy that can go out and make eight, nine, ten berdies in a round and you really wouldn't be surprised.

That's uh. Yeah. Both those guys seem to play well generally on the West Coast as well.

Yeah, I would agree with that, and especially I think it's gonna be a little bit of a shootout this week. You know, the winning score, you know, between fifteen to twenty under. And we've had a ton of the last eleven years here that it's been determined either in a playoff or a B one shot. So wouldn't be surprised if you get another long playoff. It's just kind of a trend we've been having all year.

Yeah, seriously, it would be be a third straight year of cutting into the super Bowl if it If it happens.

Unless JB is in contention. In that case, it may go to Monday.

He is, he is definitely going to He's going to have to live with that for a long time now.

He's getting well, he's getting his four minutes and ten seconds of fame from it.

So yeah, So then we get down into kind of more of the the low priced guys and uh, who are the who are the guys there worth taking flyers on? What about my boy Michael Kim?

Uh?

Still not a fan of Michael Kim, even even after a performance last week. I Mean I get it because he was a local player there and you know, familiar with the course and he a pretty good finish, But I don't think it's going to trendslate over here to

What about what about the go Ted Potter here? What about the Goose and Ted Potter bringing it in the first round?

And that's what we get for calling him out on here. They obviously obviously had to hear that and give him a little bit of inspiration.

So so you like Goose this week.

I'm not saying I love him, but I think he's definitely an option because I think no one's gonna play him. He's gonna be a guy that's going to be one or two percent owned at seventy three hundred because guys are gonna take you know, Bud Cawley or Molinari or Brio or Luke List. They're gonna take those guys over whosin. So if you want a guy that's gone for a tournament, he's not a bad option.

You know, I didn't see I didn't see his name, which is probably a bad, bad sign. But what happened to Andrew Landry last week?

Yeah, he missed the cut by I think four or five shots, so.

I got a good thing. I didn't make any bets exactly. Yeah, So down here, I mean co crack, he hits, he mashes the ball. Seems like this could be a place he could play well.

Possibly. The only thing is I don't know if it's necessarily a bomber's golf course, and he hasn't had that much success. I mean, I'm just go get Guys like JB and Bubba play well in the past. But Coprax missed forward his last six cuts of his course, So I understand he's been playing well, you know better of late, but I still hesitant unplaying guy in that range. I think there's a lot better options that have had you know,

Yeah, it's on the hearing.

I'd probably be more likely to go to a guy that maybe is like Peter Yulein, who's getting you know, getting away from POINTA greens and background Bermuda greens and you know, he's a guy who's you know, he's top seventy in the world or something like that, and you know he's down at sixty eight hundred, which is pretty cheap in my opinion.

Yeah, you get down into this sixty eight hundred range and I mean you got I mean seven thousand, you got Grayson, Murray and Bryson de Chambeau. Grayson went to ASU for a short stint and you know he's played pretty decent. Is is he a guy you got your eye on?

He does make a lot of birdies. The only thing I'm afraid of on this course is that it's really easy to make a large number, and Grayson is definitely known for that. We've seen a lot of guys hit in the desert here, make double or triples or pipe one O B or pipe one in the water on

I'm excited to see Grayson in the sixteenth to hear what what what people are saying see see how he reacts.

Yeah, they could definitely make some interesting pairings going into the going into the sixteenth hole if they wanted to, you know, put some put some of the guys together and make it interesting for some fans.

So mm hm, I mean so down here, anybody else that catches your eye at the very bottom.

I mean, you got Chustin Hadley, who continues to be under his underpriced last week, under price this week. He is one of the highest birdie rates out there and you know, solid t t to green game and you know, almost one in the fall and a couple other high finishes and he's only sixty nine hundred. So I think I'd probably be using him in some tournaments based upon those facts.

Not a JJ Henry fan, huh.

Not a JJ Henry. I'd rather go with a guy like Will McGirk, who has had you know, pretty decent course history here. I think he said, you know, five straight top thirty five inches here. I believe. So he's the guy that may go a little bit under the radar because people don't, you know, don't picture him as a guy with a lot of high finishes at this track because they never were top tens. But they're guys that make the cut for you and finish good enough to kind of help your lineup.

Wyndham Clark could be an interesting play. He played really well on the web the week before he was in. I think he was the lead fifty four hole leader before he finished. He finished in the top ten, though, but he'd be an interesting guy. He makes a ton of birdies, hits it long great potter too.

Yeah, and that's one of the things down in this price range. You're you're looking to hit a guy that can get you a top fifteen, top twenty finish and hope he's maybe one or two percent owned, and hope some of the chalkier plays the guys choose, you know, miss the cut, and that's how you kind of jump up the standings.

So in terms of one and done, if if you're not going with Hidekie, who's who are some guys that you should look at if you if you say like say like me, I've I've got three made cuts but three low finishes, and i know everybody's picking Hideki this week, so it could be a good opportunity for me to to go contrarian and pick up some points. If Hideki doesn't win his third straight.

Yeah, I think you have You have a few options. The one kind of obvious option would be to go John Ram this week because if you look on the theory wise and a lot of guys used in the last two weeks, so maybe only half of your league hasn't left, and they're probably gonna be saving him for a major, maybe a WGC, and they realized he kind of faded this past week, so you may be he may only be picked by a couple people your league

That's who I think I'm gonna take web I kind of want to use the deck in a Major this year.

I think he's gonna potentially win one.

He could definitely be a good fit, possibly for Congressional or even maybe at Carnousti for the British.

I don't know if they're playing Congressional. They aren't playing.

Sorry, sorry, no, that's okay.

I'll just edit it out. All right, So Kyle, you're taking Web. I'm going Web Polly.

I'm probably gonna eat the Chalco with Maziana this week.

I man, I'm just still so bummed about not getting my Jay Day when this was the pick of the pick of the year for me. I'm I'll probably go with rom maybe Daniel Berger just out of left field.

I mean it is back on Bermuda Green, So that does sue Berger?

Yeah, that that could be the guy I go with. I'm going between one of those guys. I'm I won't decide until the minute of and then I might decide. I might pick somebody else.

Just let me know who he picks. When I can, you know, place a bet so that I know they're gonna win. Probably, So ye.

Who I don't pick exactly? All right?

What do you guys have in the football game?

Yeah, that's more important question.

I got Patriots winning somewhere between three to seven points. I'm thinking.

That sounds about I think I think Belichick's gonna have a good game plan him and Patricia For Foles, I'm gonna go Patriots by tennis.

I just I think Foles had like the performance of a lifetime and in the championship game, it's gonna be. And you know what it is about the Patriots is that like that Phillies d has been really good this year, but like they just wear on teams and by the.

Annoying bubble screens and wheel rouds and you just all they do is break one or two a game.

And that's yeah, that's the game.

And it's just a mismatch.

And when you're looking at and when you're looking at the Super Bowl, you usually have, you know, head coaches and quarterbacks. Those are the guys you look for it. I'd rather have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady versus not Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

Yeah. Correct, So I guess, uh, I'm I'm so basically.

Everyone should bet the Eagles.

A lot of people are.

Actually surprisingly is uh is uh? Is Brady the greatest quarterback of all time?

Did you see the speaking of the greatest quarterback of all time? Did you guys see that video of Michelson throwing the football today? I forgot why I saw it on Twitter. I'm sure you can search it on Twitter, but I mean, he's throwing like it looks like forty.

Yard perfect spirals.

I was like, oh my god, right handed too.

It's like it's like what Brandle said, I.

Know, take them to the fair Win all the big toys.

Yeah he can. He can throw balls either anyway you want it. So all right, Well we'll be back next week and I guess go uh whoever you're rooting for.

See you, guys, you've.

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