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fried Egg hat with your subscription. I miss a Green, for example, I'm already upset when I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset, and when I find my.
Ball in a brid Egg Friday Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Brian Egg, Frida Egg.
Bride Egg. Lie. I'm about ready to run off the golf course.
Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back to another edition of the Frida Egg Podcast with US Open week. Here, I am joined by our resident Fantasy Golf betting and TIS expert, Polly Polly. Welcome on.
Hey, what's up Andy?
Not much, just getting primed for a big week. What about you?
No, this is definitely one of my more favorite weeks of the year, so I'm definitely looking.
Forward to it.
Yeah, it should be a should be an interesting week. I'm I think it's it'll be a fun US Open. Obviously a lot of attention on the course, lots of attention on Tiger and DJ. What have you been seeing the last couple of weeks leading up to this? What are you looking out for?
It's just nice to see the fact that we have so many players in golf right now that are not necessarily firing all cylinders but playing well coming into the major, to where we have fifteen or twenty guys that I think have a legitimate chance at winning this week.
Yeah, I agree in the sense of I think once you hit about twenty in the world rankings, that's when the you know, the chance of winning. I think we're going to see a premier player win this week. I don't think we're going to see a surprise winner in the sense of a you know you're going to It's going to be a pedigreed guy, one of the most talented players on tour will win this week because my.
Guess Yeah, I would echo that sentiment as.
Well, having checked out the golf course. I think it just is it's such a good overall test of players games.
I think you've got to do everything well. I think that's the case with most US Open venues, but more so at Shinnakok, where you've got elements that can possibly come into play with the wind and being such an exposed site, I think you'll see a little bit of the Augusta National effect where approach play is going to be really important because we there's a you know, good movement in the fairways, so you're going to see a lot of you know, uneven lies, and you couple that
with wind uphill, downhill and side hill lies in repelling greens and all of a sudden, that approach play is going to be really important and the elite players in that category are going to separate themselves. And then I think also, you know, with the with the changes, I think from two thousand and four, one of the biggest things is going to be the green surround so the ball. You know, they have short grass everywhere out there, and
the ball will tumble away. You know, the margin for error will be small, so you know, you could see a shot that just trickles off the green and ends up rolling thirty forty yards away on some in some cases a little bit wider fairways. So driving, I think it gives everybody a chance. It's not going to take
the driver out of play. So if one of those big hitters gets hot with the driver, they could have a really big advantage in the sense of, you know, they can hit driver everywhere and really shorten the golf course. But at the same token, the shorter hitters can you know, compete because they have the ability to play to angles and use their accuracy because you know, it's not that traditional, really narrow US Open setup where everybody misses fairways.
Yeah, I would agree with most of those sentiments. As well.
I mean what I'm looking at for this week is definitely approach game, strokes stained around the green, a little bit of driving distance, and strokes gained off the tea as well. Again as you mentioned, if one of the guys, one of the bombers gets hot, and then also looking at bogie avoidance for you know, some of the shorter hitters that are kind of able to plod their way around and have more queens good guard.
Yeah. I think unlike last year, par is a good score at Shinnecock. I with the way the weather shaping up, assuming that the wind stays down like they're forecasting, I think the winner is going to be between you know, four and seven under par So. I think you know, rounds of seventy two don't really hurt you. Assuming you get one one good one in you or two good ones in you, you can you can be in the hunt if you shoot around par Yeah.
And I think one thing for people to realize is that maybe to check the weather forecast on Wednesday just to see if there's any advantage for the early late wave or the late early wave for Thursday and Friday, because if there is wind forecast, did anything about fifteen miles an hour.
That drastic would change that golf course.
Oh yeah, I mean then all of a sudden you want to look at at players that you know, obviously, with the waves being different, morning would be an advantage in most cases. But sometimes you know it's windy in the morning and call them in the afternoon. But then all of a sudden, you know, you look at those guys that play a little bit better in the wind that have had success. It's it's not a links golf course in the sense of you see at the British Open.
It's more aerial than that. But you know you need to control your ballflight really well because it can get really windy out there. Let's start with kind of one and done and and the favorites, and you know we mentioned we're looking at top twenty real pedigreed players. Who are you looking at from a one and done perspective?
So from a one and done perspective, I'm thinking a lot of people are going to be taking Dustin Johnson this week if they still have him available, after seeing him, you know, rate the field Memphis, and knowing that his game usually suits us Open styles very well, so that that's gonna make me want to not use him this week because I typically don't want to play somebody that maybe twenty or thirty percent own in the league.
Yeah, it's and this is even more of the case for people that are looking to make up ground later in the season, people that are down in the in the bottom. You can't can't, can't roll with a favorite this week, right, Yeah.
There's plenty of other options that could win. I mean, one of the guys that I'm probably most heavily in, you know, favor, would be Justin Thomas. I think he's a good other option instead of Dustin Johnson to where Thomas pretty much has the exact same game as DJ, except you he's maybe only be five or ten percent home this week in your league. So I'd much likely probably pick Thomas instead of DJ.
Yeah, I think you could even go further down. I saw, you know, we saw a resurgent Hideki Matsiyama last or two weeks ago at Memorial and look to have his game back. And he's, you know, last year in the US Open, he's t second, he plays well at Augusta, one of the best players approach into the Green, and he's top ten and strokes gained around the Green this year.
Yeah, he's actually just you know, mentioned one of my favorite players of the week. So he's actually the only guy in the field that has finished in the top twenty in the last six majors. And if we kind of look at some of his stats over over the long term, I mean, like about over the last fifty rounds in the field, he's nineteenth, approach, twelfth, around the Green, twenty fourth, and driving business in twenty and Bogey Awards.
So you know, some people, you know, may shy away from him because his name hasn't been around the tour that much this year because he was injured for a little bit. So you may you may get him at a very low ownership in your league this week.
You know, Matciama has been injured and last year's champion Kopka has been injured, and he's shown some pretty strong forms since he's come back from that injury the last couple of weeks. He you got any chance of a Curtis Strange like repeat champion this year.
Yeah, I mean, Brooks just seems to you know, tailored his game towards the majors. He's top fifteen in his last five majors that he's played, he's trending in the right direction, and his last three events, you know, he finished thirtieth last week in Memphis, but before that he was second and eleventh, And to me, his game just suits us open. He's basically Dustin Johnson White.
Yeah, yeah, I think he fits this golf course really well. And he's a perfect example of a guy that if his driver gets hot, you look out well.
He also has a very underrated short game as well. He's very good around the greens in a really good putter.
Great putter. I mean, he's one of the best putters, and everybody always talks about the distance like I just alluded to, you know, lazy writer here. So I think think another guy that will be very, very highly owned is Justin Rose. I think the golf course will fit his game well and aren't many players in the world in better form than him.
Yeah, I would agree with that. He's gonna be very popular option in all formats this week.
So getting into DraftKings, it's the Millionaire Maker this week, so you're gonna have a lot of people in DraftKings and lots of people picking the big names. You know, obviously, with so many people in there. As you alluded to in the Masters podcast, we did you got to get go a little bit against the grain in order to
win big in this week's in a big contests. So with that, looking at the top tier players ten thousand or more, you know you got Ricky Followers at the bottom at ten thousand, two hundred, and then you roll up to Dustin Johnson at eleven to seven. You got Rory JT. Speith day in between there, who of this top tier do you really like?
Just on a pure ownership perspective, I'm probably gonna go with Jordan Spief there because I think so many people have seen him struggle with the putter this year, and I think you're gonna have so many people hop on DJ or Justin Thomas or even Ricky Fowler becoming a popular name, or even slay below bit at Justin Rose at ninete hundred, that it's gonna be tough to have more than two of these guys on your team, and I think.
Speak it's overlooked.
And one thing to mention is that he actually gain strokes putting a memorial even though he missed the cut there, So maybe it's a little bit of a turn around with the putter.
He I mean, he's been absolutely exceptional from tee to green this year, and I mean he's been unbelievable with the driver, which has usually been one of his cruxes, you know, one of the things that gets him in a little bit of trouble, and it's been really odd to see him with putting. But putting is so fickle in the sense that he can you could be struggling for weeks and weeks and then one week later it just turns around. And the ball striking has much more longevity.
So you know, given that he's hit the ball so well and in his track record as a putter, he's bound to break out of the putting slump.
And he's also a really good fit here in terms of all the shaves surrounds able to show off his short game, and also the uneven lies in the ferry are very ugustled like you mentioned, or even like cap Lure where he's played well as Also.
Yeah, I agree, it's a what do you think about Rory?
Rory, I'm just afraid that he's gonna have one of his four rounds be a blow up run where he shoot seventy six or seventy seven this week.
Yeah, it just seems to be what it has been the problem with him in majors recently is just he just can't seem to put four rounds together.
And yeah, and we also look at Rory, is that most of the events that he's one have actually been when you know, a lot of birdies have been made in the scoring has been lower. If the scoring, you know, gets closer to part in this event, I definitely don't think Rory's an option this week.
Yeah.
Yeah, It's been a resurgent ear for Jason Day in the sense I mean he's been spectacular around the greens. Does he drive it well enough from an accuracy standpoint for you at at a US Open, Yeah.
I think he would drive it well enough. The issue I have with Jason Days actually with his approach game. His iron's going to be pretty poor. I mean, even when he won at the Wells Fargo, he was right at field average on approach. When he was put the players, he was field average on approach. When he wanted the Farmers,
he was below average the field and approach. And like, I don't think you're able to get away with that at Shinnecock because if you miss it your irons, you're going to be You're gonna have very difficult up and downs. Even though he may have the best short game in this field, Yeah.
I could see that. I mean, I think he's he's close to a good fit if he has like you said that, if he if he's good te de Green, I mean, there's he might not be stoppable, but that's always the big question. We get down in here and and you know, for the second major in a row, I just feel like nobody's talking about John Rahm, and he's the fourth ranked player in the world. You know, got all the skill, I mean, fifth ranked player in the world. He's got all the skills you could possibly
want from, you know a golf standpoint. Is it a patience thing? Is it just something that he just goes overlooked.
I think I think it's a combination of patients and the fact that I think the weak part of his game is his iron game. He's actually lost strokes on approaching five of his last six events. And if that's gonna be one of the you know, defining characteristics we're looking for a champion this week, it's pretty hard to be looking towards.
John rom mm hm. It's uh, you know, then we get down and we got Tiger Phil. Obviously they're going to dominate the storylines. You know, Phil's at eighty five hundred, He's in this group kind of when you get Tigers at ninety two and you get down to like, you know, kind of this is this is where you could get you know, a couple of these players. Do you like that strategy of going after a bunch of guys in the eight thousand range and bypassing the bigger guys.
Yeah, I would definitely go with a lot of the guys from you know, that seventy nine to nine thousand range, from you know Adam Scott up to Brooks Koepka. You have about fifteen guys in that range and pretty much anybody in that range. I would not be surprised if they were in contention comes Unday.
Yeah, Brendan Grace could be a good one in there. He's been playing really well and especially if the wind kicks up.
Huh yeah.
And he's also played well on some other links like golf courses such as Chambers Bay or if you look at the aerial links like Royal Birkdale to where you know, he had the course record last year, and he also has three top sixes in his last eight majors, and he hasn't missed the cut since the Fetics got playoffs last year on the PGA Tour.
Yeah, what about you know, one of the biggest I saw, he's like in the top three of official World Golf Rankings points earned this year, Bubba Watson.
I'm probably gonna not be playing Bubba Watson anywhere this week just because of the patients and frustration level of the US Open to where if he you know, he hits an iron shot twenty feet away from a hole, hits a slope and runs down, you know, he kind of gets in that pouty mood. I don't think that's the mood you're gonna need as a champion. You need to have the unflappable mood, kind of like how Brooks Cup they had last year.
Yeah, Bubba, obviously it has a huge advantage with the distance, and I love his creativity, but I mean, the US Opens never been kind of his cup of tea.
No, it definitely has, and he's very he's very subpar when it comes to around the greens. I think he's lost lost strokes around the green, I want to say, in eight of his last eleven events. So if you're gonna be missing greens, I don't know. He has a short game to recover from those mistakes.
So as we drop down below eight thousand, below, you know, Adam Scott at seventy nine, he got Oustasen. Who's I mean, that's that's always a good pick for majors. Seemingly you get down and you've got this interesting kind of hodgepodge of veterans and younger players down into the seven thousand range. What are the names that kind of stick out here?
Yeah, So another one of my favorite plays of the week is Adam Scott at seventy nine hundred. So he actually split with his caddy the past week and this week he has a local caddy, Lenny Bimello from Shinnikok Hills, So I think that's going to give him an advantage on the greens this week, which is where he's been you were here. He's been struggling the last you know, the last couple of months. And he also he also kind of fits the course very well. Eighteenth and driving
distance twelfth in approach and fifteen off the tee. If we're looking over last fifty rounds, and he's gained a massive sixteen shots on approach and twelve shots off the team in his last four events.
So I kind of like Australian players in general this week. The course is going to play really firm and fast. And someone who I know, you know, having talked to Caddy and him, that loves firm and fast setups as Mark Leishman, obviously a great approach player, has has finished i think top five in every major championship. You like Leishman.
Yeah, Leifman will definitely be among my players that I consider this week. He's a very very good win player and if you look at you know, his best result recently was at Trinity Forrest, which was, you know, a link style golf course that's not necessarily to be the same as this, but it's gonna play firm and fast.
Yeah, I know that he just he They they love Furman fast setups, and I kind of like And we saw last time the US Open was played at Shinnecock, South Africans did well with Goosen winning El's was in the hunt. I think, you know, in terms of Internet it might skew a little internationally. Do you feel that way a little bit?
Yeah, I'm feeling the exact same thing. And I'm also looking for some guys that, you know, another example would be a guy like Shane Lowry, another international player who can just kind of grind it out there if the scores, if it gets windy and the score is going to be a little bit closer to par.
Yeah, he had he was. I mean, he was in the thick of it at Oakmont until the end, and you know that was you know, obviously DJ finished what did he finished five under or that one? And but yeah, I mean tough golf course, and he tends to play really well at difficult golf courses. So then we we get in here. I like, Can'tley, despite him being just an absolute horrible golfer to watch from the slow play perspective,
get down in here and what I mean. Cam Smith's been kind of in bad form, but he's another guy that kind of pops out to me with his performance at Chambers Bay, T third and T fifth this year at the Masters.
Yeah, I if I didn't see his form over the last month, I'd be in on Cam Smith. But he's lost fourteen shots on approach in his last four events. So it's made me think that he's really starting with his iron game, which is it is gonna be causing some big numbers this week in Hinnacock.
I would expect.
Yeah, that's not good. We get down in here. Bennett on was obviously came out a playoff loss last two weeks ago at the Memorial. Is he a guy. Yeah, I think he's you know, at the tops of europe European Tour and strokes gained approach, He's near the top there. Always been known as a great iron player.
Yeah, he's definitely a good fit.
This week, He's gain strokes off the tea in twelve straight events, and he's over you know, in the last five events, he's gained over ten shots around the green and in his last seven events he's gained strokes on approaching six of those. So he's really, you know, hitting all the check marks for what we would expect to be a player to potentially contend and had a very cheap salary for draft wings.
Yeah, he's uh, he's in the value bucket and we're kind of down in there. I know Andrew Beef Johnson obviously, you know, he's he gets a lot of uh kind of a claim just for his name. I mean, he's always been a great te degreen guy. Do you like him this week?
Yeah, he's a guy that plays very well on difficult golf courses. So he saw him pop up on the US Open a few years back, and then he's some of the events that he's played well in Europe such as the bald Rama.
Yeah.
Over, but you know, been.
On tracks to where a real previum has been placed on ball striking end, where you know, cars an ok score.
I think he's a He's at the top of all the ball striking stats on the European Tour too, a guy that I like as well. And we get down in here. Do you like any kind of ams or younger guys that sectional qualified in Yeah.
There's there's a feat down here there. Like one is the Sun jaym who played well on the Asian Tour in the fall and then has played really well on the Web dot Com Tour this year with one win in two seconds. So he's a potential option down there if you're looking for a big flyer.
Yeah, he's leading the moneyless by like a huge, huge margin. You got the timeless Steve Stricker, which you know he played well again last week. I mean, this guy just has such steady game and he's what is it. He hasn't missed a cut at a major and how many events.
It's been twenty seven straight majors that he has made the cut.
That's out of this world.
Yeah.
I think the record maybe thirty nine. So he's still a little bit aways from that. But you know, if you're looking for somebody in your roster just to make the cut, put it.
Plug him in at six not a bad option, you know.
I saw McDowell made some comments about he felt like this was the first US Open he had a chance because of the golf course in a while. You read anything into that? Do you like him at sixty eight? Former?
I think he's another viable option because it kind of reminds him pretty much a little bit of Pebble Beach to where he's not gonna have to take it super low. It's gonna be firm and fast, and it's gonna put a big emphasis on short game, and that's his strong suit.
I kind of like mullin Axe as a flyer play maybe like a top ten. He's coming off of T. Six he had, he had his second place finish at Valero, and we saw last year at Aaron Hills. I mean, he can contend in a US Open. He's obviously prodigious off the tee, but he's just got kind of that game that you look at and you always say, man, this guy can really play golf.
Yeah, if he can.
Keep it in playoff the tea, I think he had have a tremendous advantage this week, and then that's what happened last year Aaron Hills.
Right, Yeah, it's a little bit more narrow than Aaron Hill, so in the greens are a little bit tougher. But given his form, and I know he switched teachers this year, you know, he's the consistency. He's definitely improved significantly from the year before, so it could be a good pick. So getting down, we kind of are at the very bottom. Is there anybody really cheap that you like outside.
That they're really I'm not gonna be playing any of the ams or any of the you know, additional professionals are qualified down at the bottom. I'm I'm mostly gonna let other people choose those And just because not many of those guys into making the cut around the chance to finish in the top twenty, which is what you need if you want to, you know, win the million dollars on draftings.
So in terms of strategy, is there anything you're doing You say you're doing a couple of different lineups, How are you you? How do you put together you know, let's say you want to do three or four lineups for this thing.
Yeah, So if I want to do three or four lineups, I'm going to try to make sure that my whole entire lineup isn't full of chalckey players, meaning players who I think are going to be highly owned. So if I wanted to play somebody such as DJ or Justin Thomas, I'm gonna want to make sure I choose somebody who may be a little bit less owned in conjunction with them.
So that may be picking somebody like a Shane Lowry at the bottom or at Graham McDowell, somebody who may only be a few percent down, just to distinguish my lineups.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think that's something that people often forget, is that you've got to have some people that other people aren't thinking about in there. In terms of salary, are you in the Master's pot. You mentioned you're try and stay away from, you know, spending your full dollar, right, you can do that.
As the potential option for the US as well. It was more of a strategy to use for the Masters, considering the field is a lot smaller, okay, with only ninety such guys we're here, you have one hundred and fifty six. You have a little bit larger field where I don't think you necessarily have to do it, but
it's definitely an option. I would just try to make sure that you have one or two guys that you would pick on your team who you think maybe five percent own your left and if you do that, you have a pretty good chance of your line of being unique.
All right, Moving towards the long shots, you're making any plays for whether it be long shots to win or long shots for top ten.
One good long shot I think is Luke List. He's one hundred and fifty to one to win, and he's a really good course fit. So if you look over his last fifty rounds, he's third, strokes gained off the t, fourth and strokes gained around the green, third and driving distance twenty eighth in approach and sixteenth and bogie avoidance. He he's gained strokes around the green ten of his last thirteen starts off the team, seventeen of his last team eighteen, and game strokes that approaching eight of his
last ten. So that's you know, that's a lot of blocks checked like that.
Yeah, it's pretty good golf if you're if you're into those kind of stats.
Yeah, and he's due for a win.
I'm not saying he's gonna win this week, but I wouldn't be surprised that he's he's up there because he plays difficult courses very well, kind of like how he played.
The Honda this year.
He's a guy that's just really improved his game over the last like four years. It's been fun to watch, Like the case, he went from a guy that you wondered, you know, did he have everything he needed to be to one of the more consistent players on tour. And you know, from from being volatile to consistent. It's pretty cool thing to watch. And he's gonna win one of these days, you know, it's uh. And he's got a ton of talent and uh, I mean that the recent recent results have been spectacular.
Yeah, I would agree with that.
All right, So you got any anything else for the people?
No, just one thing before you set your lineups going into Thursdays is check the weather forecast Wednesday, Wednesday afternoon or evening, just to make sure that one of the waves doesn't seem to have a big advantage or disadvantage in terms of the win.
So what's your what's your winning score prediction? And winner?
I would go with four under par and Hideki Matsuyama.
Wow, you are answering the question, can Hideki win?
I am answering that question. Yes, I am all right. I like it.
And uh, we'll we'll look for your article in the next day or so. And uh, make sure everybody follow Polly on Twitter. It's Frida egg Paul at Frida egg Polly and uh, thanks for coming on, Thanks for having me, Andy, all right, talk soon. You've been listening to the fried Egg podcast. We do the digging for you.