I miss the green. For example, I'm already upset. When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my ball in a frid Egg, Friday Egg, the dreaded Friday Egg, Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Frida egg bride egg Lie, I'm about ready to run off of the course.
Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back to another edition of the Friday Egg Podcast. Today, I'm joined by Polly, the legendary picks man. Welcome on, Hey, Andy, how's it going? Hanging in there? Figures the week I go to l a at rains here, So short day, but uh gave me more time to get ready to talk about the PGA tour.
Well, you're missing the heat wave back in Chicago. I think it might have actually hit thirty today.
So it's about a tough winner.
That's about forty degrees normal, higher than them we've had for normal.
Yeah, why did to talk a little tour golf? PGA tour kicked off. What'd you think of last week's event?
I mean, DJ just absolutely dominated. I mean he literally just was able to hit his driver wherever he wanted on that course, and it just gave him such an immense advantage that there was hardly anybody in the field that could have competed with him at that level. And we've seen that in the past where Jordan has won a capaloo as well, or justin Thomas to where when those guys are on their game, there's not many other players in the field that can even come close to
competing with them. As we can see, John Rahm played great the whole week and still was not even in the same ballpark as DJ.
Yeah, I think it's something that gets a little blown out of proportion when one of these guys wins by like seven or eight, and you know there's only a handful of guys that can do it. John Rahm did it actually in Ireland last year at that Rollox event. But it's you know, people make these knee jerk reactions when they see Dustin Johnson one by eight. But you know, when DJ plays as good as he can play, he's probably gonna win by a handful of shots.
Agree with that.
It's a long season, and it's uh, we've only seen one golfer in the in my lifetime, in your lifetime that can really sustain the dominant level play for a long time. It will be very interesting to see dj uh this year, though. I kind of feel like he could be on for a big year.
Yeah, I definitely agree with that. He kind of has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder after the way he played last year and then getting hurt before August to where he could have went out an absolute tear head. He possibly stayed healthy at that point, So it'd be interesting if he can do that this year.
Yeah, yeah, I think he. I think he will. But you know, at this point, he's got so many wins. I wrote this in the newsletter, but it's more about adding majors because he's I mean, he's right on the borderline of a Hall of Fame career already.
Yeah, hear that. And the fact is that he still has a lot of years of prime golf ahead of him too. It's not like he's, you know, in his forties in doing this, right, He's literally in the peak right now.
So did anybody else impress you last week?
There were there were a few guys. I mean, I saw Mark Leishman again just continues to continue his strong play from the fall, and once again he's another good guy that's playing in the wins. So it'll be interesting to see if he's able to carry that over to you know, a track this week where he's you know, had some decent success, but wondering if you could maybe take that, you know, the next leap to where he starts winning you know, two three times a year on tour.
I mean, because I think he won twice last year. Can he continue the trend this year? Yeah?
I mean finishing seventh with a third round seventy six, it's pretty impressive. And uh, I think you know, Leishman's got the whole package game. You know, T Degreen, he's really solid, he was long, he's got great iron player and you know, when that putter gets going, he's tough to beat. What about my boy?
See wu Seawoo. The interesting thing is Seawou actually played that well last week and he didn't putt great. So so the scary thing is that if he actually putted last week well, he would have he would have had a lot higher finish. I think he ended up losing I think about two and a half shots Strokes Stane putting last week, so he very easily could have been, you know, top five had he putted just a little bit better.
There Sea Wou's gonna have a big year this year, he im. I'm convinced. I everybody likes to rag on him for last year he won the Players, but he was injured all year, Like, how can you you know, I got in a little tiff with a with a guy on Twitter about this, but like, how can you analyze somebody's stats when he's when he's in injured all year?
Yeah? I agree with that. And then the best thing is that I see what was one of my favorite guys in terms of, like on a betting perspective, because he has such bad finishes that based probably almost like recency biaster, that his odds ended up being so bad like last year he was five hundred and one to win the Players that would or even even even like last week, I think he was fifty or sixty one. I think he's seventy or eighty to one to win this week
he finished. And in reality, he's won twice on tour ready, so he's gonna win more often than than one out of seventy or one out of eighty times.
I think he had a third or fourth place finish at Sony in twenty sixteen. His rookie year brought him up for a reason. I think this is a good, good track for him. I think he's just going to have a good year In terms of twenty eighteen, I mean, I mean, we're at the this is the first full full field event of the year. What are you kind of looking forward to.
I'm looking forward to seeing how some of these some of the rookies that played in the Fall series in some of the smaller events, how they kind of handle the pressure of the mainstream PGA tour out to where they're you know, they're being able to play a couple events in a row here and the pressures of having to perform well before the next reshuffle. So you give some guys like Austin Cook who already obviously won on tour in the fall, and they don't have to worry
about that. But there's a lot of guys in the middle of the pack there, or rookies who these next three or four events are very crucial to whether they're able to retain their card for the year. Yeah.
I always love watching rookies at this time of the year. It's an underrated storyline in terms of what gets coverage, But this is kind of a make or break time for rookies if they if they perform well, they're going to be set for the rest of the year. And I'd be interested to see like a statistical analysis. I think Jake Nichols did one at one point where he talked at you know, like early season performance and how I mean the correlation to keeping their card is like
so through the roof. But I highlighted a couple guys that I'm watching in particular like these early events. Obviously, like Peter u Lines, the big the big name that everybody knows, former number one ranked player in the world as an amateur European Tour winner, played on the European Tour since he graduated, so about six years. But then really young kid Aaron Wise, who I believe is only
twenty one NCAA champion from Oregon. I'm really I mean, as far as talent goes, he's he's got to be one of the ten most talented player young players in the game. And then another guy that I'm looking at is Sam Ryder, who was known kind of on the web tour as the best player t de Green out there. So Sam Ryder's one that I don't think he played that great in the in the fall, but I expect him to play really well in these next couple events.
Yeah, I could definitely see Ryder playing good this week just because his game suits up perfect the for the golf course, because he's be able to keep it in playoff the tee and be able to hit the small greens out here just no matter whether he can make putts for the week.
So from a statistical standpoint, what kind of stats do you look at for this week, Sony.
So in terms of looking at the Sony, I'm looking for guys that are able to really control their iron shots because you're gonna have a lot of approaches coming into the greens from that one to twenty five to one seventy five range, and traditionally you haven't seen distance off the tea being a huge factor for success here. Obviously, there's outliers to that, like Justin Thomas last year, who decided hit driver everywhere and he pretty much headed on a string, so he made it into like a pitching
put golf course. But if you look back at the winners of his golf course, you have guys like in twenty sixty at Fabian Gomez you've had Johnson, Wagner, Mark Wilson, Zach Johnson, kJ Toroy, Paul Goidos, David Thoms. Those aren't necessarily your bomber. They're more of your tacticians, the guys that will place it in the right, in the right portion of the fairway, attack their correct portion of the green,
leave in the correct spot and the greens there. If you're in the correct spot, you can make a lot of putts on those greens because they're rolling pretty true.
Yeah, that's a kind of a rainer and the course isn't it. So the course is a Seth Rainer design, But I mean not all of it's really intact because it's been, you know, messed with over the years. They sold some of the land to the hotel, the Kahala Hotel, and it was a drastic rerouting. But one of the things with Seth Rayner greens is if you're in the right area, you've got really makeable putts and they're pretty straight. So it's a place that definitely rewards precise iron play.
In terms of the golf course, I mean, I really like this golf course. Justin Thomas was really the first one to expose it. In the sense of cutting corners the way he did. I talked with Dope ahead of the last podcast with Tom dok that went up on Monday was all about this. He's the consulting architect here. He talked about how Thomas those lines he took were so aggressive and if he wasn't on just right, you know, all of a sudden, he's in a lot of a
lot of tough spots. So it'll it'll be interesting to see if if Thomas employs the same strategy this week. I mean, he's not coming in with the same form as he had last year.
Yeah, but I think I think it's just his aggressive nature to where he's gonna play. I think the same way he did last year in terms of just pulling driver, because that's just the way that he kind of goes ahead and plays because he knows if he happens to have a good week driving, it's going to be difficult for others to content with him. He could do something
like it did last year. And you know, even if he doesn't drive it as great as that, maybe just a little bit worse, he can still potentially win this just because of his driver.
Yeah, yeah, definitely, I mean that was a record setting performance last year, so if he's a eight percent of what he was last year, will probably win. Getting into kind of players for this week and what you're looking at, let's let's first go into the one and done and you know, everybody's season is kicking off, so people are looking to get off to a good start. I know I am. I haven't been doing very well in fantasy golf lately.
Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple of good options this week. I wouldn't necessarily want us to go the route of taking one of the top guns in terms of like Speather Thomas this week, but I think one of the guys that I'm gonna be looking at for my league is gonna be Brian Harmon this week. He's coming in after playing very well last week. He has good course history, you know, finishing top twenty the
last three years here. And if you think of the guys that have won here in the past, me as mentioned earlier, Gomez, Wagner, Wilson, Tom's Gouidos, they're kind of fit the Harmon mold, meaning he's gonna keep it in playoff the tea. He's going to be very good at his Iron game, and he's a pretty good putter, so I would not be app I see Brian Harmon come out on top this week.
Yeah really, I put as a guy a player that kind of popped out at me. I put Harmon down. I think. I think he's the guy. He's a guy that's just going to continue to ascend. He's last year, he had a breakout year, but I expect him to be around for the next decade as one of the PGA tours, you know, not superstars, but that that second tier player that is consistently in the hunt at a lot of events, your weekend week out.
Yeah. I don't know if it's necessarly the best comparison, but to me, he kind of seems like this generation's potential to be like a Jim Furrick, meaning he's always going to be there, he's going to be very consistent, and he's going to be a perfect guy to be in combination for like Ryder Cups to part with some of some of the bombers.
I think so he reminds me a lot of Kevin Kiszner in a way where these guys they don't have like a standout skill like that pops like that is dominant, and those guys it seems like it takes longer for them to really establish themselves on tour. Like Kisner obviously had a great year last year, but he's in that same boat where I like him a lot this week as well. I think this is a really good golf
course for him. I think it's pretty comparable to Colonial because it's got these dog legs and you got to play the position and then you've got these you know, wedges to mid to low irons in and Colonial is a spot that Kissner won last year at. So Kisner is another guy that I like.
Yeah, and I've seen a lot of correlation with Colonial as well. So if you look at example, like Zach Johnson, I believe played good Colonial as well, and you look here, he's had top tens three of the last four years and anyone back here in two thousand and nine as well. So it's another guy, you know that fits the mold of being a tactician in terms of placing it in this area so you can have the best angle in and attacking from there.
Yeah, it's it's funny.
He uh.
We did a little exercise. We never ended up doing anything with it. Last year. But this was one of the courses I sent to you as kind of an architecturally significant golf course, and Kisner was a guy that just popped, you know when when the architecture is good. Kissner is a top ten player in the world.
Yeah, I mean, and in another course that might be a little similar to this, might be it might be Harbor Town as well, in terms of having to place it and with a little bit of the smaller greens and being able to have consistency with the with the iron game, you know, one twenty five there.
So another guy I put down on my list is Shay Revey Chez Revey.
Yeah, he had a really good, really good fall there. I think he had five consecutive top twenty fives in the fall and then he finished eighth here last year. So it'll be interesting to see, if you know, if he's able to continue that trend going forward and possibly rack up another another top ten year.
Uh So, do you have any other guys that you're really kind of got highlighted for one and done?
Yeah, I mean, I'm not necessarily if I'm gonna use them this week. I think there may be a few other times that they use him on the West Coast. But Charles Holl's record here is really hard to pass up. So I think in the last eleven times he's been here, he's had seven top eight finishes, which kind of goes a little bit under the Raider because when you think of the Sony Open, you don't necessarily think of Charles
Holl being in contention that much. But it's really hard to pass up the ability for a guy that may not actually win this week, but he's probably gonna give you a top twenty finish.
It's kind of a synonymous with his career where he doesn't really win, he castes a lot of big checks. Yeah, anyone else.
That's probably about it. I mean, the one other guy you may want to go, if you want to go a little bit of a flyer, maybe a guy like JJ Spawn.
Yeah, he played He played her.
Last year and missed the cop but it seemed like in the Fall, the Fall series he really started to find his game. Almost won his last start in the Fall series, And it's another guy that kind of fits that mold of keeping it in play and being a good iron player there.
Yeah, I've been I'm one of the forefront. JJ Spawn fans, and I would say this golf course should fit him really well. He's stellar from tee to green. He's not overly long, but he's just really consistent. And the other thing is he's a West Coast guy, so I think that helps out here. He's got it. He hits the ball really well, so if the wind picks up, which is obviously always a big factors. I mean, the golf course is right on the ocean. If the wind picked up,
he's a good fit. And he almost won his last start the start before. He was in contention late and I think he finished like double triple or something to drop to like fifteen. So you know, he almost won twice. And that's something I always look at when I'm trying to look at breakout players the next year, is who are guys that really got in the hunt a lot and were in contention a few times but didn't get the job done. And those guys I always think are
the guys that are gonna break out next year. And I could see JJ Spahn not going to win this year and having a really good year similar to like an Adam had one year last year.
Yeah, I could definitely see that. I honestly wouldn't be surprised that he picks up a victory by the time the West Coast swing is over, because there's a lot of courses there that are gonna fit him well.
So let's dive into DraftKings here and get get kind of we'll go through a couple you know who you like from the high price tiers, and then you know who you like to fill out your roster with the salaries for this week, You've obviously got Jordan Speeth, Justin Thomas are clear in a way the top two guys, and then you know, Mark Leishman, Brian Harmon, and Kissner are all above ten thousand dollars, so those are kind
of the clear top echelon guys. Are you going with a strategy of taking one of those top two guys?
Yeah. So if I'm looking at like a tournament structure, a lot of times I'll first look to see, you know, where do I think everyone else is going to go? And then I'll kind of pivot off of that because if I can get you know, if I think I can get Jordan speedth or Justin Thomas at a smaller ownership than let's say Mark Leishman or Brian Harmon. I'm
going to do that. So I think based on the way that Harmon and Leishman played this past week and the fact that you can save you know, maybe one thousand dollars more salary, I think a lot of guys are going to do that this week. And I'm going to think, Oh, Justin Thomas played so bad last week. You know, he's got a different caddy on the bag,
he's got bones on the bag. This week, you know, you may have a chance to where you can get you know, a defending champion at fifteen percent ownership, which I'll take all day. I'll take that risk because he is the upside to where he starts playing well, He's going to carry your your DraftKings tournament team this week.
I kind of I would throw Jordan Speith into that Sam boat he had. He shot his seventy five in the first round, still finished in the top ten, and you know, you look at a golf course that should fit his game really well. There's he's the best player approaching the green on the PGA Tour and he finished top five last year in his first start here.
Yeah, and I think one of the stats that sticks out from last week is you know, we know Jordan's speaks a good putter traditionally in the long term. Right, So last week he lost almost four shots on the green strokes gained putting where normally he's you know, gaining what one point four shots a round, So he basically lost about a little over five shots off his average putting and he finished what ninth, ninth, Yeah, right right, And so if he makes those five, if he just
puts normal. Last week, he finished his second to Djah, So if you think about that, you know his T degree game TD green game last week, you know, he gained almost nine shots on the field doing that. So if he can keep that up this week and just has a normal putting week, which I would not be surprised with considering the greens are a little bit easier to putt, I would not be surprised to see hit him up there in the top five this week, just because he's that good of a player.
Yeah, I mean, you can never count out Jordan Speith, but uh I always you know, if you go with like a guy like Kissner who didn't have a great week last week, you can get a lot more value. So, like if you're taking a guy like Kisner, all of a sudden, you can stock up on some of these these you know, tier two guys that have you know, some people we've already talked about, Charles Howell, see Wu Kim, you know, along with past champions such as Russell Henley,
Zach Johnson. So who do you like in this kind of like nine to eight thousand bracket.
Yeah, one of my favorite DraftKings players the whole time is actually Tony Finaw because a common misconception people get when looking at DraftKings is it's, you know, they think, oh, it's just about how they finished for the week. But in reality, the scoring so heavily weighted towards birdies and eagles that that female oftentimes may finish twentieth, but he
may have the tenth most points for the week. So if you're looking at DraftKings, female is usually a really good option because of his ability to make so many birdies and have all the eagle opportunities. And we know that the two par fives here, if Feale, you know, hits good drives on them, he's gonna have very short approach shots. He'd literally man like a labor nine.
Yeah, and eighteen.
And eighteen if he's able to hit a high draw over the corner there and the fact that you know, females kind of matured over the past year to where he's kind of realized he doesn't have to hit driver everywhere, so he's able to use his length in in other ways to where he's hitting, you know, hitting maybe a four iron off the tee, where he could do that here hit a four iron and still have a wedge into a lot of holes.
We put together that list of breakout players that you put all the stats together and we're looking at it. And one of the guys that improved so much last year in strokes gain approach was Tony Finow and it didn't correlate to wins, but he was really consistent. So he was one of those guys. Had a couple of things gone his way, he could have had two three wins last year.
Yeah, I definitely expect him at least one victory under his belt this year.
Hey, I got a question that with a with a player here that's in this in this range. He was the Rookie of the Year last year. Xanderschoffley, are you worried at all? Like, how do you weigh club changes early in the season.
It's always difficult the first couple of years, a couple of weeks this season, even if they're not changing clubs, just because of the fact that a lot of guys haven't played tournament golf for a couple months, right, So just you know, just just walking into Hawaii, you have a guy may not have played since you know, October November, or maybe they played the Hero Challenge, or maybe they
played somewhere in Asia. I think I think Shotley played like at the Dunlop Dunlop Phoenix, and then I think he played maybe you know, one or two other events. But he obviously, you know, he obviously feel feels comfortable enough changing manufacturers there for the equipment that I'm not
going to wait too much into that. I'm more concerned about how he's you know, how he's played in the Fall series, and you know the events in the Fall where you know, finished near last, the CJ Cup finished I think forty six of the HSBC, and then last week I think finished twenty second, So that that's a little more concerning to me. You know, that's a little bit different than the form he had when he you know, won the Tour Championship and was started the CIMB right after that.
So yeah, one of my one of the players that I've highlighted as a potential breakout player this year, and I think this is a popular one, is Ali Schneider Jant and he's sitting there at eighty three hundred. He was a guy that I think he had four or five top five finishes last year, was consistently on leader boards as a rook and obviously, you know, former number one ranked amateur world player in the world. It has about as much talent as anybody out there. Do you
like him this week? Are you passing on him?
I'm probably gonna pass on him this week. I'd much rather have another guy who was, you know, a top collegiate as well, which is Jamie Lovemark. And that's love Mark. You know, his last two times here he's gone fourth and seventh, and as we kind of talked about, you know, and it was in the article that we kind of had a few weeks back that based upon how he's been improving in his game, I would not be surprised to see love Mark, you know, notch that victory this year.
And you know, on paper, you wouldn't think he'd be that great of a fit for his golf course, but for some reason, it just suits his eye. And I don't really know why, but when a player, you know, was able to come in and pick up two, you know, top seven finishes, that's probably meaning that they're liking the course.
Yeah, he was. He had a really good year last year. Even though he didn't it was a sneaky good year. He had a really good stretch in the middle of the year, and I think, hey, you know, it's a sad story that he was derailed so early in his career by the back injuries, but it I think like he could be one of those guys that at age from age thirty to thirty five could have a really great run.
Yeah. I can definitely see that with love Mark.
So any other guys that kind of stick out in this eight thousand range, No, I definitely.
See some guys right below the eight thousand range that I'm interested in. But there's a lot of guys in that eight thousand range, like Will mcgert or Daniel Berger that I'm probably be passing on this week to try to save some salary down below, especially if we're going to play Justin Thomas or Jordan sped So you.
Know, one guy in this seven seven thousand range is JJ Spahn, who we already talked about. Who else in this group really kind of stands out.
So I'm gonna go back to the well here with
Austin Cook. It's another golf course that just fits him perfectly to where he's a guy that keeps and playoff the tea very solid iron game, and you know, has the ability to you know, when he when he's in position on the greens, can make a lot of those ten to fifteen foot plots for birdie, which I think is going to be needed this week if you're going to want to, you know, get to that winning score, which I'm guessing is probably gonna be between twenty to
twenty three under somewhere in the area, just because the winds projected to be a little bit down this week, so I'm thinking the numbers are gonna be pretty low.
You know, was kicking myself. So right after I published article in the fall about rookies to watch, a buddy of mine who Caddi's on the PGA tour texted me and goes, Dude, Austin Cook is going to be just an atm out there. That guy's going to make a ton of money, and sure enough, like two weeks later, he wins. So I'd buy Austin cook stock right now too, just based off of a review I trust.
Yeah, And I think one of the other guys there, if you a little bit lower at seven, it seems like draftings. I don't know if they priced him in correctly or what, but you have Jason Duffner down at seventy three hundred. So one of the things I look at each week is I kind of compare the odds to win the tournament versus your salary, and we're seeing that Jason Duffner has the fifteenth best odds to win, yet he's all the way down here at seventy three hundred. So something just doesn't jive there.
That's quite strange, and especially considering he's such a good ball striker.
Oh especially and if you're looking like courses that are you know Corollary's Colonial, right, well, Jason Dufner plays pretty good at Colonial.
Yeah, it's a Jason Duffner price the same as Kelly Kraft.
Or Daysuki Katoka, I think is the better analogy there?
Yeah, Hey, don't hate on Daysuke. What about Wes Bryan? You know you you talked about Harbortown and he obviously won there, but I feel like that could be another good fit, is uh Wes Bryan.
Yeah. The only thing I'm concerned about with Wes Bryan is his ability to keep it in play off the tee, because going into last week he was, you know, looked at from a lot of people because the fairways were wide and it was, oh, it's just going to be an approach shot game and putting right up Wes Bryan's alley.
Right.
The problem is he was not able to keep it anywhere in play last week. He lost eleven point three shots off the tee stroke gained at Kapalua. Now, obviously, I know a lot of that may be distanced, but I know he missed a lot of fairways and put a couple of them in the junk, especially in the par five.
Fifth those are big fairways too. Yeah, but I you know, one of the things I think with a driver is a driver, just knowing from my own tournament golf experience, like your driver can just reappear one week to the next week.
Yeah, that's coming from a guy who's used to driving it very well. I'm a guy that doesn't drive it very well, so I know that you don't get many weeks where you're hitting it well. So I can feel for Wes Bryan and his driver's struggles.
Yeah, that's true. So anyone else in the seven thousand. I mean, we talked about Sam Ryder already, Jimmy Walker two time winner here lime disease? Is he is he over the lime disease? Like?
I would still probably stay off that. I mean, I think you're gonna have a lot of people just flock to him for draftings just based upon the name and the fact that he's won here. So I'd rather just kind of fade that fifteen percent that's going to own him and hope he doesn't finish in the top fifteen or top twenty.
Here's kind of a question that's bigger than just this. Is is this here that Patrick Rodgers is finally going to like win?
I don't know about that. It seems to me that he's able to put together a couple good rounds, but I don't know if he's able to string together four rounds together. Like to me, he seems a lot like Russell Henley without the you know, the dynamic of being able to close it in the final round where you know, he has these highly variant rounds. The guy I can go out and shoot twenty nine and a nine holes with without a blink of an eye. It just no matter. Can he do it for four rounds?
Yeah, Russell Henley is such a great putter too. I think that's that's kind of where Patrick Rodgers falls short. But he I mean, I think he's still twenty five. That guy has moreked as much talent as anybody out there. So now we're kind of in our into the bargain basement down here. Who pops at you know, seven thousand and under.
Yeah, so I got a few guys down here. One of them, what we could have mentioned earlier and talking about rookies, I think was a bo Hoostler. He's down there at seven thousand and interesting enough, he's actually he's three hundred and fifty to one to win this week, which is I think obviously not a correct price in the market. There no to where he's a guy that you know almost you know, he contended in the fall
series at the Shiners. I think he lost by two when when I think Cantley won there and then the week before that he had another top ten at Sanderson's Farm. So if you look at for rookie, that might make a splash and you know, and kind of has the pedigree to go out there and win. He's a guy that I could see winning winning maybe not obviously, not this event, possibly, but could win one of the smaller field events this year on tour.
Yeah, I would agree with that. He won so much as a collegiate and amateur player, I mean as much pedigree as anybody. As you said, I think Bo Hustler, and and the fact that he got up to the PGA Tour. Like so he got up to the PGA Tour despite starting the year on the web dot Com with no status. He mondayed in in the middle of the season, finished second. Then I think he won the
next week. So I mean the guy guy got up there, got up into the top twenty five, making about half the starts, as everybody else on the web dot Com tour a lot of talent, would I would not be surprised to see him contend for like Rookie of the Year.
Yeah, I could definitely see that. The only only way I maybe see maybe unless like Peter Yuline, happens to win a couple of times. I think he's probably be the favorite possible for Rookie of the Year if he you know, actually, I.
Think Bo Hostler is not eligible now that I think about it, because he made there's this. You know, he got all those sponsors exemptions, and I don't think you're eligible if you get eight sponsors exemptions.
Yeah, I think it's about eight or nine. I think it's the cutoff there.
It's one of the most confusing things on the PGA Tour is determining who and who isn't is a rookie. You know, one guy I kind of like to break out this year is Michael Kimp and I don't know if he's I don't think he's necessarily a great DraftKings guy, but he has hung around the PGA tour. I think he's into his third or fourth year now and was a dynamic amateur player, and he just seems like a guy that's gonna be a consistent player on the tour
for a long time. And I think he's improved a lot approaching the Green and I think it's just a matter of time before he starts to really, you know, instead just making the cut have some top finishes.
Yeah, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that one. And not one of my favorite players on tour there. Hey, to me, he seems like a guy that just keeps hovering, hovering around the cut there each week. And I don't really see the upside in his game to where he's
going to record a lot of top ten finishes. And if you look at his record, like in the Fall Series, I think he played h you know, I think he played four events there and miss missed three of the cuts, and the one he didn't miss a cut was no cut event the c IMB Classics. So not as any trunding in the correct direction there.
You know what, agree to disagree, We'll see the season will bear it out.
It seems like a bets coming out on that one.
So Steven Jaeger would be a guy that kind of fits this bill. He's not the longest rookie, but I mean he's lit it up. I mean he shot fifty seven at Stonebray. Of course that you get a lot of short irons and wedges into and you know what do you think, I mean, you probably haven't seen a ton of Yaeger, but he could be a guy that plays well.
Yeah, I've seen him a little bit on the on the on the web dot com last year, you know, watching that, but he's he's definitely a guy where I'm gonna want to watch him the first couple starts on tour here during the main season, because I think the first couple of months you have a lot of people that just they see the name and they just don't know who that is, and they just kind of look over him, Whereas he could definitely provide a lot of value, not even just in DraftKings, but in some of the
type of possible leagues you may be having to where he may be, you know, you know, kind of near the bottom of your choices there, because he played pretty decent in the fall. He had I think he had four out of five cuts made and and I think three of those were in the top thirty. So you know, the possibility for him, you know, getting up there and making some money and getting up the reshuffle list is definitely there.
So a guy you liked last week is sitting there at sixty nine hundred, Ryan Armor, are you on him again this week?
Oh? Yeah, you got to my to my favorite favorite play probably of the of the year. I'm gonna I'm gonna be, you know, a Ryan Armor fan all year because I think he's gonna be He's gonna be the Adam Hadwin this year to where he's gonna be underpriced every every week. It seems like he already won in
the Fall series. And he's a guy who is an elite iron player, and a lot of people the public just won't think of Ryan Armor as a solid play because they've kind of seen his name on and off the tour for the last you know, six seven, eight years. You know, he's a guy. I think he's forty or forty one. But an interesting stat of dug up from after looking at the stats when Kapalua was so we look at Dustin Johnson. Dustin Johnson had thirty nine attempts
for Birdier better inside twenty feet. Ryan Armor finished I think about seventeen shots behind him. But he had thirty eight opportunities for Birdie inside twenty feet last week and it was windy out and he did that. So if he's able to bring that precise iron game over to while this week and on a little bit flatter greens, and he's able to put halfway decent. I would not be surprised if he, you know, top five's, top tens, maybe even sneaks in his second victory this week.
Yeah he, I mean he one week you can't make him, and then next week you can't miss. That's that's the way golf goes a lot of times. So ball striking leaves a lot slower, like it sticks around longer than putting.
Yeah, one hundred percent agree on that. And the other thing is Armor is not the longest hitter out there, So there isn't necessarily a ton of courses you'd like to have him play on, but this is definitely a course where length may not necessarily be needed as much.
And you know, he he can kind of follow the you know, the David Toms, the Kissner, Jerry Kelly, Zach Johnson's of the world, and you know, just maneuver it around the golf course and keep leaving himself puts aside fifteen or twenty feet.
As a fellow contrarian, would you consider armor for one and done that?
And that would be a potential option. Yeah, because if you have if you're in a large one and done. I'm in a few different contests and one was over you know, over a thousand people in it to where if you pick an armor, you're probably going to be you know, maybe two or three people have them, and that gives you a chance to where you can you know, jump up up the standings significantly.
But by having that, yeah, that's uh. I always That's probably why I don't do well. Is I always am looking for like the sneaky contrarian take and I get to the end of the year and I look at my who I haven't picked yet, and I'm like, I got like, I got twenty guys that are in the top forty in the world that haven't used like probably messed up here.
Yeah. Like one of the things, like a lot of people listen is probably do one and done. Conness is at the beginning of the year is I'll go through and chart out the events and list, you know, two or three guys that I like for each event. So that way kind of ahead of time, I could know to where Let's say I was looking at Charles Holle this week, I can see, Okay, there's two or three
other events I may want to use Charles. How now do I want to burn him this week or not, whereas a lot of people will just pick somebody for this week and not think about the significance of that, you know, of them using that pick down down the line. But a good example of that is taking DJ at Riviera, because he's absolutely owned that place, right, A lot of people are gonna want to save him for there and not gonna want to burn him at other spots.
Yeah, yeah, And then do you save DJ for a major where you get maybe more points?
Yeah, that's another question. The only thing is that I tend not to go with studs of the majors because the fields are so so difficult to win at and a lot of times the money is only significantly and is not really significantly more it maybe you know, one point seven million as opposed to one point two or one point three. I'd rather take a take him in a tournament to where he has you know, you know, only three or four guys in the top fifteen in the world as opposed to all fifteen guys.
Mm hmm. So another guy that you mentioned in the article of Breakout Player is Harold Varner, and he's at sixty seven hundred despite making six of six cuts in the fall. What do you think?
Yeah, I think he's one of the high upside plays of the week to where he's a guy that has the ability to make a lot of birdies in a row, and interesting enough, he's actually fairly consistent as well. I don't think he's His last miss cut was actually back at the John Deere in the summer. So for a guy that's, you know, this low priced, I think he's
probably gonna make the cut this week. I don't know if he's necessarily gonna finish top ten, but i'd most likely project him summer between twentieth and fortieth, probably finishing and making a fair amount of birdies, which if you want to put Justin Thomas and jordan' speed in your lineup or one of them, Varner is going to be a very popular play on there to pair him with.
I would think, Yeah, I could see his percentage being really high because he's a name who you got, you got Rory Sabatini or Omari Rusty heads up this week?
Uh? Actually I don't mind playing Rory this week, you know, And you know, usually when I say that, I'm talking about Rory McElroy. But in this instance, I'm actually talking about Rory Sabatini. He surprisingly has a pretty decent record if we look all the way back here. So if we go back all the way to I got, you know, records anyboy the last like roughly ten years here, he actually has. He finished second twice here and six once
and two other top fifteens. So for a guy that you know a lot of people will just kind of skim over they always played bad the last couple of years, he's not necessarily the worst, worst guy to just you know, just kind of throw a dart at and hope it hits.
Yeah, I have to say that I'm pretty sad that the Sony Open didn't extend a sponsors exemption to the player that's delivered the best moment in Sony Open history.
Which is Robert Allenby. Oh, I thought you were going to talk but Tad Fujikawa, because I know he was trying to Monday qualify today. I don't know if you made it, but I know he was in the forty five person field.
So I mean Allenby has provided a lifetime of memories at this event.
Yeah, that was one of the more interesting stories I think I've ever heard.
So anybody else, you like, any other making any long shot bets, any head to head.
I haven't really dug into the head to heads yet. Those usually you'll come out on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, so you can follow me on on on Twitter at Friday, Paul. You know, I'll kind of keep you updated up to date on those there. But in terms of any of your long shot bets, not really at this time. I mean I kind of mentioned Armor before. I think he's ninety to one or one hundred and one to win. I think it's probably good value down there in that bracket.
Cool and then and then was it Hostler who is three fifty.
Probably a bow hoster, was three hundred and fifty to one to win, So he's did those odds carry over? A lot of times they'll make the top ten or top five. Odds finish based upon their winning percentage, based upon their odds to win. So you may see Hostler at like twenty to one for a top ten. Yeah, which and if if you see that, that's obviously there's a lot of value there because you know his real odds to get a top ten or probably maybe eight to one, nine to one. This week, m hm.
So before we let you out here, we got we gotta get some predictions for the year. Let's let's hear your major winners for the year.
So major winners for the year, I would probably think that I'm thinking at Augusta. I know it's a popular choice, but I think you're gonna have Jordan Speth get a narrow victory over Justin Rose at Augusta. So I think Rose battles down the stretch again, but Spief pulls out
another victory at Augusta. There all right, And then at the US Open, I'm thinking you may get a little bit more of a long shot this year at the US Open, you might you might have you might have a guy such as maybe even like Brian Harmon when there to where a guy gets his first major there, because I you know, at Shinnakocky you've had guys like Corey Pave and you know when they're to where. I don't necessarily think shinnacock is gonna be a course where
you're gonna have to absolutely vomit. I think it's gonna be more US Open style in terms of having to control your ballfly, control your spin as opposed to the last couple of ones where it's kind of been a you know, vomit with a little bit more open off of tea. Is that kind of your assessment of the course as well. Uh?
Yeah, I mean it's pretty it's pretty wide. I think it's gonna deliver. I personally think it will deliver a thoroughbread it's I think it's one of the great championship courses in the country. I think you gotta you're gonna have to have an all round game. It's a it's an architectural masterpiece.
And then go on to the British. I believe that's a Carnoussi.
This year CARNOUSI.
So isn't that where isn't that where Sergio just barely missed uh winning winning the Major? Correct? Yeah?
I mean it is a ball striking paradise there.
I mean, you're knock he's got one one major under his belt. I wouldn't be surprised if he adds another one at the British.
Okay, I like that. Pick a lot and Belle reeve the Jones family legacy. It's gonna be it's gonna be soft. It will there is. I am gonna say that Saint Louis in August is maybe the worst place in the world to be in August. It's going to be hot, it's gonna be humid, it's gonna rain. There's no chance that that golf course is in any way firm and fast. No.
So yeah, So the one guy I like for that is actually Mark Leishman. And the thing is interesting enough, Leishman is looking like future odds. He's actually sixty six to one to win the PGA Championship right now, which I think is a lot of value.
All Right, there's a good bet for anybody that's in Vegas or as a local bookie.
Definitely.
So I got a couple more predictions to throw at you, a couple more, you know, instead, in lieu of over eight and underrated. I'm just gonna ask you a couple odd questions. Sure will Paul Casey win this year?
No? I am on the Paul Casey anti playing well on Sunday bandwagon. I've it's one of my favorite favorite bets to make is always on Paul cases in contention on Sunday. I take the head to head bet of whoever he's playing with. And I've done that for about three or four years and it's worked out very well.
Will Rory McElroy and the year in the top.
Ten, Yeah, in a top ten in the world or top ten in.
FedEx couple, top ten in the world.
Yes, Yes, I think he probably comes back and wins probably twice at least twice this year.
What about Jason.
Day, I'm thinking he's kind of in the in the same Rory boat. Maybe probably gonna get one to two wins, somewhere between eight to ten in the world. And I'm thinking just because I think you're gonna have guys like John Ram kind of solidify himself and you know, and finishing ahead of him in the world rankings.
All right, player that will veteran player outside of the ones that you've written about, that's gonna have a great year that everybody's gonna be like, wow, how did we not see that coming.
I would probably go with Sean O'Hare. That's a little bit out of left field. But O'Hare is just we've seen in the past that he has the ability to win events, and now that I think he's finally you know, he made some swing changes that he's finally feel uncomfortable with that that you know, he played good for for a couple weeks last year a Colonial, finishing second and fifth of the Byron Nelson. You know, he finished eleventh
tier last year at the Sony. So it wouldn't surprise me if he picks up another win, maybe somewhere like at the Valspar in Tampa, or or maybe even at the at the Honda Classic or something like that. Tour. You know, it's a true ball striker's golf course. I wouldn't be surprised if he picks up you know, one or two victories there. Yeah.
He always kind of just like sneaks a win in. You know, you're like, oh, he won, he's won. You know, he won again.
It's one of those you know, four or five years and you're like, Sean O'Hare won how many times on tour?
All right, better season Bubba Watson or Hunter.
Mayheon, Oh that that is Bubba Watson. By far, I honestly think Bubba is gonna be back to his full form. Yeah, yeah, I think I think he's gonna be He's going to be back. He's he's got he's back to his normal ball. Now you got away from the Volvic's, so now now
that he's back to his normal ball. You can you know, maybe figure out back to his game to where I think he might have been focusing on the wrong parts of it, and now go back to his strengths and be able to know dominate the course Tee to Green to where I think he kind of lost it a little bit, uh te de Green over the last couple of years.
So I'm just looking through players here, is is this the season that Martin Kaimer has like that that good year again out of nowhere? Like you know, he he'll go through a couple of bad years and and then he just has like a great year.
I don't know if necessarily this year I would look towards future years based upon where where the majors are playing at. So if you look at the years that he's played, well, you've had years where it's been like Whistling Straights or Pinehurst, Like, I don't think any of these major tracks this year suit him that well. So I don't think shine I'd be a Kimer fan this year.
Yeah, yeah, Carnoussi wouldn't fit him. Well.
Augusta and we know and we know Augusta is not We'll never pick Martin Kimer well, not good.
All right, well Paulie, well, well, we're gonna have Paulie on more regularly, maybe every week, who knows, Well, let us know what you think and uh, we'll see you soon.
All right, Thanks for having me. Andy, you've been listening to the Fried Egg podcast. We do the digging for you.