2018 Masters: Paulie’s Picks

I miss the green. For example, I'm already upset. When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my ball.

In a fried egg Frida egg, the dreaded Friday Egg, Frida Egg, Frida egg, fried Egg, Frida egg, bride egg Lie, I'm about ready to run off the golf course.

Arnold Palmer is the Master's friend of nineteen. He has buddy the last two holes to catch, and that bove ahead of catch that Jory?

What are then say? That? Money? Ways golf? I mean, have anybody you haven't ever seen that? An't play up the hell you ever like that?

And I think that's one of the greatest funny I've ever seen in Friday Night.

Maybe yes, sir, there it is.

You believe it? Heckw no, there it is a.

Win for the ages? Is it his time here? It comes?

Oh my goodness, oh wow?

In your life? Have you seen anything like that?

Hello? Friends, I'm jim NANTZ is my great pleasure to welcome you to the Master's Tournament.

I've heard it said before. It's a tradition unlike any other.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another edition of the Fried Egg podcast. It is Masters week, so we have Paulli from Polly's Picks coming on to help us all with our Master's pools, DraftKings one and Done leagues. You know, this is the week where everybody has a chance to win a million dollars on DraftKings. So Pollie, welcome on.

Hei. What's up Andy?

Not much, man, just busy week and ready to I'm excited for it. And you know, it's crazy this year with how many you know, people are peaking going into the tournament, and it makes picking for one and done and all these things really tough.

Yeah, definitely.

It's one of those like a perfect storm scenario where you couldn't imagine having this many people playing good coming into Augusta and this many good storylines. It's literally like a script out of a movie.

Yeah, what do you think legitimate winners like you know, in term, I think there's probably about twenty guys where if you told me, hey, Tommy Fleetwood won, I wouldn't be surprised. What do you think where do you think it goes down to.

Yeah, I think there's about fifteen to twenty that would win. But I think this is one of the unique years to where there's about eight or ten guys that you could tell me win by four or five shots.

And I wouldn't be deprised.

Mm hmm.

Yeah, just because when the guys are on fire, like when Justin Thomas gets on on fire, or when DJ gets on fire, or you know, or Jason Day right, when those guys are the top of their game, they can win an event by four or five especially.

In a major.

I agree. I think if we will be treated to an unbelievable Sunday, if we could get two or three of those guys playing at the top end of their game and see a real shootout, it'll be really a fascinating masters to watch.

So with.

All eyes on golf for you know, the biggest week of the year, tons of people are playing pools, and I think the pools really mirror DraftKings pretty well in the sense of, you know a lot of people like to pick the same guys. So what's your strategy going into DraftKings or say big office pulls or big friend pools.

Yeah, So if I'm trying to, you know, win a big pool, whether it's on you know, winning a millionaire maker on DraftKings or winning a pool where there's let's say maybe one hundred entries. I'm gonna try to figure out who I think everyone is gonna pick, and then

You expect Speed to be the highest owned player or do you think it's gonna be.

What he did today in Houston? I would think so yes.

With him finishing third there and putting miserably, I think he's going to be the highest owned guy in most of the pools and possibly even on draftings this week.

I feel like the third place finish for Speak there was like the ideal finish. You don't want to win that week because it's so hard to win back to back tournaments and nobody's ever won in Houston and then won in at Augusta. But a third place ideal, right, yeah, definitely.

And then the way that Speed did it too, I mean he lost three shots on the greens this week in Houston and finished third.

Are you worried at all given that you know he entered the week I think one hundred and seventy second in strokes game putting.

No.

I mean, based on some of the interviews he's had in the past regarding Augusta, he just is able to see the lines very well in those greens and just feels comfortable. And if he just has a marginal putting week, he's going to be in the contention and the back nine on Sunday.

Mm hm. So, so, Spith, you're expecting going to be the highest down player, who would you say, kind of if if you're looking at we'll say Rory Tiger, Speth, Justin Thomas, dj as kind of this this upper echelon, I guess you could throw Jason Day in there. I feel like Justin Rose could be in that section. How would you rank those those top tier options if you were picking a you're talking.

In regards to draft kings or for like office.

Pools, let's say we'll say each Okay, So if we're.

Looking at DraftKings where it's you know, a salary based approach where you have Dustin Johnson is the highest priced guy.

By a good amount. He's at eleven four hundred.

I think he's not going to get picked a lot because people are going to go down and play Jordan Speed at ten thousand, four hundred, or they'll even play Tiger at ten thousand or even you know, similar priced players of Rory or Jason Day. So I think DJ goes a little a little bit under owned up there, maybe only owned by ten or fifteen percent of people. And DJ is a heck of a player and can make a lot of birdies and eagles, which is good for draftings scoring.

So yeah, that's true. I mean a thousand bucks and the field is small, so I you can make it up on the back end with some good low priced players, right, definitely.

Yes.

So so you like DJ of this top tier and say, say, you know, I know a lot of people will put one hundred bucks in and do five of these entries. How would you how do you strategize with going with like when you do multiple entries for these things, do you try and do you have a core group of guys or do you try and checker a couple, you know, different lineups together.

Sure, I can kind of talk about the strategy I do for the for the large events like this. So this week we have the Millionaire Make Around DraftKings, which it's a twenty dollars entry, million dollar first place prize, and I think second place is like one hundred and ftwy thousands, So you're pretty much putting twenty dollars in

Andreo ju agree.

Yeah. You know, a couple of years ago, I was like, when Speeth had that horrible, disastrous quadruple, I was in like seventh place in this thing, but I was another guy had the exact same lineup as I did, and I was watching myself go up there and I was like,

And so one of the strategies I'll do this week is we have a fifty thousand dollar budget on DraftKings, and the pricing is pretty soft in terms of, you know, there's a lot of guys down that are valuable with the lower end that you can you can play or even in the middle range to where I'm not going to use all fifty thousand because a lot of people will fill out a lineup and they get to their last guy and say, hey, I got eight guys eighty

That's a great point. I mean, it's hard when you got money to not spend it, and in this case, you're saying, don't spend all your money because it'll give you more chance of being unique.

Exactly.

So I mean you could end up having winning the Millionaire Maker and having fifty people tie you, and maybe you end up getting like thirty thousand dollars.

What do you think you would have won a million?

That would be an ultimate buzz kill exactly. Yeah, So getting into kind of some players you like, So, as we talked about earlier, there's say fifteen guys that fifteen to twenty guys that could legitimately win this thing. And then with DraftKings, which are the of the top tier, say eighty three hundred guys or eight thousand above, who are the guys you like?

So the guys that like.

There, I think one guy that'll fly under the radar a little bit is Hadeki Manciyama. So Manziama's down at eighty four hundred, and I think a lot of people won't play him because the last time they kind of saw him or heard from him, he was injured withdrew from the Waste Management Phoenix. But since then he's come

Yeah, I think one of the things I look for with Augusta picks in general is iron play. So I think the best iron players play the best at Augusta because of the way the course is set up, where the approach shots have, you know, very little room for ara. You know, they ask you to hit these great approach shots, and you know, typically what you see is the guys that regularly have success at Augusta are some of the

I couldn't agree more because it's not necessarily about hitting it close with the irons. That's hitting in the correct area on the greens. And so when the guys are miss hit that aren't good with the irons are missing it. They're missing it in spots to where they can't get up and down, and that's where the bogies creep in. If you look at guys that have won in the past, it's by eliminating bogies, not by making twenty five birdies.

Well, I think one of the things with that too is that a guess that has a lot of uneven lies. So what you get with those uneven lies is it it just it makes it harder hit the right number. So the the great iron players separate themselves even more because it's just you know, they're they're more talented and it's a tougher situation. So I think like a couple of places that mirror that are Kapalua Pebble has some

Yeah.

So then if you're looking at like your office pool, obviously it's a little bit different and you're dealing with like a different kind of subset. Where where where could you I I generally think my strategy and you tell me if this is right or wrong. You're you know, I think that when I'm in my friend's pools, no

Yeah.

I think the big advantage on the office pools isn't necessarily with like your top pick, because a lot of times you're just put in little pods, so they'll see the top like ten guys in one pod. It's about differentiating in other pods to where you may pick somebody like example, like a Tommy Fleetwood, to where you know a person that watches a lot of golf is going to know them. But a casual golfan that just watches the majors isn't going to know that much about Fleetwood.

Yeah. So with DraftKings and starting to bounce back to this, anybody you like outside of DJ and Matts Yama, I know you mentioned Adam Scott before in this eight thousand and above range.

Yeah, I think one other guy there is Paul Casey. I think he's going to be one of the higher owned guys of the week as well, probably in the top four or five highest zwed. His iron game is just too good. As you mentioned earlier, He's got three straight top six is here. It's been playing good all year. His last ten events on tour, he's gatined thirty nine shots on approach, which is just stupid to to stick there.

Again.

You know, Paul Casey's number one in the Sagarin rankings, which is like you know, they do head to head against every golfer every week. He's number one in the world.

Yeah, mister consistency.

Yeah, so we got to ask what about Phil and Phil and Tiger? Where are you? Where are you standing on these two?

So I'd rather have Phil than Tiger this week just because Phil's hitting his irons really good over his last you know, he didn't play great in Houston this week, but prior to that four you know, stroke play events, I think he gained fifteen shots on approach and finished from the top six in each of those events, and then obviously one the WGC in Mexico. So I'd take that over Tiger any day.

Okay, So now we're down into the eight thousand and I mean it's always funny. I feel like when you look at these this range of players for the Masters, because eight thousand and below and you see these names that a lot of times are some of the highest priced guys at your regular tour stop. So say seventy nine and starts at seventy nine hundred, starts with Louis, then it goes to Henrik Stenson, who I horrible form. But then let's let's knock this down to seven thousand.

Sure?

I think that jumps out and if you're looking like for consistency and most lucky to you know, get you a nice high top ten finish is gonna be Matt Coucher. Coucher played good here in Houston as well, and his track record at August is very solid, where he's had

Be there come the weekend.

Yeah, you know, I was. I was looking at stats and trying to dive into this. I couldn't sleep on Sunday nine, and I was thinking about, you know, why people play well at the Masters, and I started thinking about Matt Coucher, and I started to realize that one of the more underrated skills that guys have that do well is the short games, because everybody misses and puts

Yeah, and I think the one other thing that helps Coucher Augusta he's very good with distance control, and so you don't want to be missing any of your shots long on any of these greens, and he tends to if his misses are going to be left and right on iron shots, which is.

A lot easily eat up and down.

Yeah. Yeah, So you know, Berger is a guy that I've you know, top top twenty seven and his two starts there really good iron player. What do you think about Burger?

He's a guy that has a lot of a lot of upside. I would say to where you know, you tell me he finishes, you know, in the top ten. I can definitely believe it. I'm not sure if he can possibly win here, but he's a guy that when he's playing well, makes a lot of birdies, which is going to be good if you're playing him on draftings At seventy.

Five hundred this week, who else kind of jumps in here?

I probably dropped down a little lower to Charlie Hoffman at seventy one. Okay, he was the leader after the first round here last year, so last three years, he's gone twenty ninth and ninth here and he's gained strokes on approach in every event so far in twenty eighteen.

Yeah, everybody was expecting him to fade away. He kind of hung around all the way through till Sunday. And I mean, he's a guy that gets better every year, seemingly, and he hasn't had a breakout performance this year, but he's been solid.

Yeah.

And I think the one thing of Hoffmann well is I don't think he's scared of the big moment. I think he actually relishes, you know, being in contention and you know, needing to play aggressively. He's not going to let off the gas pedal if he's in there, you know, on Saturday and Sunday.

What about your boy of Russell Henley. I feel like you always love Henley everywhere.

I like Henley because for some reason, he plays well on courses that he has good history. And that same thing happened this week at Houston m Yeah, and I kind of expect from the same thing this week, where you know, he's a pretty good driver of the golf ball and then is a pretty good short game and that tend to add.

Up pretty well here at Augusta. Yeah, yeah, it makes a lot of birdies.

Any players in here that you don't like, any anybody you're fading.

If we're looking on the DraftKings side when it comes tournaments, I tend to fade guys that don't make a lot of birdies. So that'll be you know, your guys like maybe a Brendan Grace or possibly even maybe at Charles Schwartzel, just because the upside isn't that great for them to where they could finish tenth and it could be the same amount of points DraftKings wise, the guy that finishes thirtieth, that makes a lot of birdies.

So what about Cantley. He hasn't missed a cut since coming back from injury, and he was a low am here the only other time he's played. Kind of fits what we've been talking about too.

Yeah, it's hard for me to go with Cauntless week week to have, you know, to be in full contention, I think he probably makes the cut and finishes, you know, around twentieth. But I tend to go for guys that have that have played the Masters multiple times just because of the experience of where to hit it on the greens, knowing all the pin locations and just being comfortable in

I like can't Still. I think he's a big game hunter. Haga's dad came on the pod. He was saying he thinks Can'tly might win, which is crazy, but who knows crazier That's why they play.

The game right, exactly right. Anybody can win.

So anybody else in the seven thousand to you know, seventy nine hundred tier that you really like before we drop down into the bargain basement, I think one guy.

That maygo under owned to you know the general population is going to be Cure deck off the barn Rot. So he's played the Masters once in twenty sixteen, finished fifteenth, and he's played pretty solid this year, you know, with with three top tens in his last four starts worldwide. I believe so, well, yeah, he can, you know, and he's a guy that is afraid moment and likes play aggressive and he also hits drivery hole and it's it

M hm. So sixty nine hundred, there are some really good names right at you know, the sixty eight sixty nine hundred as well. So you got Pat Perez, Martin Kaimer, Kevin Chappel, Brendan Steele, Bryson, Jimmy Walker, Duffner, Stanley will It, I don't. I don't think that's a good one. And then and then burned Weisberger. I think Weisburger's mad made the cut every year at the Masters he's played.

Yeah, I'd be more likely to pick Weisburger in a like office pool to where birdies don't matter, because he's a guy that kind of plods around and doesn't make a ton of birdies, whereas you know, for DraftKings, he may not be the.

Best choice for that.

Okay, what about either any of those guy other guys?

Yeah, I definitely like Pat Perez this week. He's kind of got the you know, the good attitude coming in to where he's going to be attacking the golf course, but when he gets going, he has the ability to you know, he's not afraid of going up against the Justin Thomas or DJ in contention, where whereas some of these other guys haven't necessarily proven themselves as much. Where I think Pat Perez could actually get it done if he was on, you know, in the final pairing on Sunday.

I'm all in on the Scientist this week.

I'm actually, I believe it or not, a big Bryson fan this week as well.

I mean, he was really really great at bay Hill. He was really awesome his first appearance at the Masters, and he wanted deer run of course, with a lot of side slopes and uneven lies and fairway.

Yeah, I think that.

I think picking the correct one or two players down here is going to be what differentiates, you know, a winning lineup on dry can just weak twenty million dollars. Is picking the one or two guys down here that finish top six, top seven, that's what's gonna win for you.

Jimmy Walker's actually been playing pretty well lately and obviously has had a really good track record at Augusta. What do you think about him?

Yeah, I definitely him has another option on DraftKings, even in pool formats, because based on how he's playing, he's going to be pretty far down in some of the pools that are you know, putting like, you know, pods of ten players. He may be in your fifth or sixth pod and maybe a pretty good option down there.

Mm hm. Anybody else you know below there? Do you like any any of these guys to take a flyer on any of the ams or anything.

I tend to stay away from the ams and some of the senior guys just because there's really not that much upside. I'd rather have somebody else take them. And you know, I'm not saying it's dead money, but I'd rather, you know, have them choose them for at a couple percent on DraftKings and hopefully they don't play that well and just knocks out one more nch I don't have to go up against Yeah.

Yeah, Neeman is very talented, but it's such a crapshoot.

Yeah.

And then the one thing with all the young amateurs playing here is the fact that it's most of them it's their first time playing here, which even if it was a pro, I'm most likely not playing a guy if it's his first time here.

So uh, let's move on to one and done. You're in the one and done. What are you looking for this week?

Is it?

Is it based off of where you're at in the standings? And I know it's kind of early in the season still, but is it? Are you looking at it based off of where you're at in the standings?

Yeah, I think that's a pretty good way to approach it. And i'd also want to probably chart out what you're going to do for the rest of your majors the rest of the season, and you know, figure out, you know, roughly, what are your options going forward to where let's say you don't want to blow dustin Johnson this week if you're going totend to use them for the US Open or another major, Right m hm.

I'm not one for organization, So what do you do? If you're me?

I would just take a look and think, you know, give yourself a couple options, and you know, if you're near the topier standings, you may want to go somebody more chalkier, such as if you have Jordan's speed's available, he's probably gonna be the highest owned guy in your league this week, and you'd probably want to play me if you're near the top, if you're a little bit lower the standings, maybe you go with a guy like Phil Mickelson who won't be as high owned, or maybe

Yeah, I think going into this week he'd finished in the top ten thirteen of his last fifteen stars, which is unbelievable. Yeah, so yeah, I like that. What do you I guy I really like is Justin Thomas. Do you think he's gonna be I owned across the board?

Uh, He's probably gonna be I think in the top five in terms of ownership. I'm thinking on DraftKings, maybe around twenty percent. But in terms of like one and done, he'll probably be fourth or fifth in terms of ownership, I would think Speeth would be one. I'm actually thinking a lot of people are gonna pick Tiger this week and one and done just because of the history and the fact that you know Tiger's back, He's coming to Augusta.

He owns a guy.

I'd rather save Tiger if he's truly back to play maybe at the Bridge jone later.

In the year.

You got anybody that if you wanted to go really kind of off the wall, say you're near the bottom of your one and done and you want a chance to really make up some ground.

I mean, he goes a guy like Tommy Fleetwood.

He's probably not gonna be picked much in your league, and he's pretty much the best iron player on the European Tour. So to me, he reminds you of kind of a young Justin Rose, where he's may not have to be the best putter, but his driver's pretty good, and then he's just really really good with his irons.

Yeah, I think he's he's he's like the golf nerd pick of the week, I feel like, but there aren't a ton of golf nerds out there, so but uh yeah, and it's so hard to pass on some of these top guys. So what else you got for us?

Uh, there's not that much out yet because we haven't had much of the odds place out there out yet. They for the odds to win being put out there, but not much in terms of any other matchups or any other prop bets for for the Masters. So if you want, you can follow me along on Twitter during the week and I'll have updates on there at frieda Egg Polly Any.

Yeah, it's always a good follow Any good long shots you like this week?

Uh, there's when it.

Comes to the Masters, I tend not to play many long shots just because you have so many of the top tier players in good form that one or two of them are going to play good. And I don't see a guy from outside the top fifteen or twenty in the world winning.

This week, not even Kyle's play of Louis.

If there was a guy that would be the guy.

Probably Any do you ever do like top ten bet from Yeah, I do.

Top ten, top twenty, and there's all kinds of other bets as well. Masters is pretty much the best week of the year in terms of bets. There's literally every possible bet out there there's you know, over unders on everybody's finishing positions in the field too or out there. So it's a pretty fun week to be looking at the Masters.

Yeah, so follow Frida egg Polly on Twitter at Frida egg Polly and you'll get updates on that and we'll be looking for a good week here. So gun to your head. Who wins the twenty eighteen Master.

Justin Rose?

All right, this always happens to me. I don't know I'm taking Justin Thomas, but I'll probably switch the day of.

And then Justin Thomas will win.

Yeah, exactly. This happened to me a couple of times this year. It happened to me with Day when he w d'd from that damn Yeah. And then it happened with me with Phil. I'm in another league where you have to pick an Illinois golfers with all my college buddies, and my buddies started talking about how that you had to pick the Illinois and I'd forgotten about the rule, and I had Phil in Mexico, and I then sure enough I switch it to Peters and Phil went, I'm

Okay, Well, good luck all right man.

Well we'll get a we'll do our draft also later this week, so that'll be in in today's newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter, and good luck to everybody in their contests.