I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset. When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my ball.
In a fried egg Friday egg, the dreaded Frida Egg Friday, Frida Egg Egg, Frida Egg Bride Egg Lie, I'm about ready.
To run off of the course.
Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back to another edition of the Frida Egg Podcast. We are here tonight with the legendary Polly from Polly's Picks on the website.
We're going to do a little bit of a.
Breakdown of the players who to expect to play well at this week's PGA.
Polly, welcome on, Thanks Andy for having me.
Yeah, it's been, uh been a good year for you. You got eight winners this year.
Yeah, eight winners.
Almost had number nine in Canada over there. Yeah, hope you'll pick them nine this week though.
Yeah, hopefully we'll get we'll get some people some good advice on who to pick for their one and done leagues, their their office pools and DraftKings of course, So.
Let's get into it. Uh.
Cole hollis the host of this week's PGA, and it's undergone some pretty extensive changes since last year's Wells Fargo.
Completely new first four holes. First hole.
I guess it's like five twenty five uphill, really long haul dirt. Mcgert was complaining today that he hit driver three wood and he was still short on one. New grass in the greens, new bunker, sand Uh, PAULI, what do you expect out of the new look?
Yeah, I mean it's definitely gonna be a little bit different than the years past.
It's gonna play very long considering that, I mean, I believe it's around par seventy one and about seventy over seventy four hundred yards, so it's definitely gonna be looking towards some of the guys that hit the ball pretty long. And then one of the things, as you mentioned, was
they went ahead and redid their greens recently. So if you all the way back to what they had four twenty thirteen, you might remember that they had issues with some of the pros complaining about the conditions of the greens, and after that they went and changed from bent grass over to bermuda, and they had issued those greens the last couple years as well, weren't as pure as they would have liked, so about a year ago they went ahead and changed it to grass called Champions Ultra Door Fermuda,
and it's become very popular last couple of years.
It's kind of a genetically modified turf.
And some other tour events have had like TPC Southwind in Memphis, Austin Country Club, TPC San Antonio, the host of Leer Texas Open Seminal Golf Club in Florida. That some guys have played at some of the Robert Trent Jones courses in Alabama, So it's very prevalent and some of the top players on tour, you know, do put better on miss grass than what was previous.
Kind of off course, it's uh, you know, making making a couple extra press around can be a big difference.
I've also heard that the rough is.
You know, extremely healthy, Like you're saying, like six inches of rough around there, so it could be you know a little bit more of a premium on finding the fairways.
Definitely, definitely.
Yeah, it's gonna be all based upon guys gaining strokes off the tea this week, whether it be by distance and accuracy, you know, kind of the guys like you know, Charlie Hoffman a guy who may not necessarily kill it off the tea, but e's it far enough and HiT's it accurate to where you know they're not hitting, you know, like like McGirt hitting the super long irons or three woods or multiple drivers in the par fours.
There there has been kind of a factor in the majors, but maybe not this one. I love Hoffman this week too. He's just in such good form. Obviously, third place last week, second place at the Canadian Open, and then you know, in the majors he's been kind of nails.
He was in the.
Final group of the Masters, top ten at the US Open, and another top twenty at the Open Championship.
Definitely, definitely.
So as far as weather, you know, when you start, why don't you walk us through kind of how you go about making your picks and what you're thinking about this week in terms of the weather and strategy.
Sure, I was gonna walk through a little bit.
So generally I'm on Sunday and Monday before the tournament week, I'll go through and just kind of look at pastors to the golf course trying to see who has and form at the golf course, and also looked the last couple of weeks to see, hey, who's been playing good?
You know, is there anybody that's just writing a heater coming into the tournament here that I'm gonna want in a roster and what it's in draft kings or one and done leagues, And then try to look at the prior years events just to try to isolate what stats some of the players succeeded at they were near the top.
So like evidently with Quil Howell.
With it being a long golf horse and with the rough being up, we're any guys that can hit it long off the tee but still keep it in play. So that's gonna be and that's and that's the reason why you've had guys like Roy mcroy's actually killed Quil Hollow and the reason why is he's super long off the tee and when he has his driver going, he's almost unbeatable.
Yeah, I think that being wrong is such a benefit when that roughs up, too, because if you find trouble and you're really long, you've all of a sudden got a short iron in instead of having to hit like
a four iron out of the rough. And that's where it just kills short hitters like you know, is Zach Johnson when he when he misses the fairway and he's gonna miss a fairway, a couple of fairways, he just he's he's hitting a four iron out that are instead of a guy like Rory who's hitting a nine iron exactly.
And if you look at some of the other courses that have had this similar grass in the greens that this champions altraed Door Fermida, it usually ends up being really firm and fast. So if we looked at courses like we've had done a T TPC San Antonio for Valero Texas Open, a lot of the guys that top the leaderboard there are guys that hit the ball long off the tee. Because they're having shorter irons into the greens, they're able to hold it the same as true in Memphis.
We've seen guys like Daniel Berger, Tony Fino, Charlie Hoffman, Brooks Koepka, guys that are able to drive it far enough downer to where they're hitting wedges and able to hold that green as opposed to hitting suthern irons in the green.
And I'm expecting the same thing happened this week.
Yeah, I think this this week is distance will be huge. So in terms of strategies, I think this is kind of an underrated aspect of fantasy leagues, is you know what what should be kind of different strategies for for DraftKings, whether it be you're in a tournament or like okay, a fifty to fifty league, and then also for your one and done league, you know, if you're chasing, you know what are you looking for? And if you're kind of at the top of your one in dun league,
what are you you're looking to do? Is the playoffs come around the corner.
Sure, I'll try to talk about the one in dun leagues first.
If you're near the top of your one in Dune league and you still have Roy McRoy available, you should be.
Playing him this week.
And I'm the reason I'm guessing the reason you kept him all the way through this year is to play him for the PGA because you know he's good.
At quill Hollow.
If you're not near the top of your league, or you're maybe fifth sixth place and you want to try to leap rogging people out of you, you're obviously gonna want to try to fade Rory and maybe go down to a second tier player that you still have left from the bank. Whoever then may be maybe maybe a Daniel Berger or maybe even a Phil Mickelson or somebody there who may be very low owned in your league. Maybe one or two people may have them, and if he wins, you happen to leave rogular players.
Yeah, that's the position I find myself in because I haven't been using your picks, have been trying to use my own.
And then in terms of the DraftKings strategy, I mean, it's kind of broken down into two different two different types. So whenever we have people usually refer to them as cash games, meaning whether they're double ups or even sometimes triple ups or head to heads kind of where you know, roughly a third more than a third of the field gets paid. You know, double ups, it's forty five percent.
Head to heads, you know obviously one out two. When when you have those type of tournaments or games, you're gonna want to be a little bit more conservative in your picks. You're gonna want guys that are gonna a little more consistent and make cuts versus guys that are
gonna be a little bit more high up side. The easiest way to say that is you're gonna be picking the Matt Hoocher's, Adam Scott's, Paul Casey's of the world, the guys that make a lot of cuts and are going to be getting you a lot of top thirties, because in order to win in those events, you're only gonna have to finish in the top forty five percent for double ups, So if you have six all six guys make the cut, that's almost good to cash ninety percent of the weeks, and maybe some weeks five out
of six or even four out of six, depending on where the ownership falls. Definitely, in those double ups, you see a lot of people on the same players you may see, I believe a couple weeks ago we having some guys that were own sixty by seven, sixty or seventy percent of the rosters had certain players just because there's such such values.
So what do you expect a guy like Rory's ownership to be this week with everybody all over?
Yeah, I mean I expect him to be in terms of double ups, probably in that thirty percent range, only because his salary is so high. That means you're going to kind of go a little bit lower, and you may not be able to kind of stack your team with a bunch of value plays in that eight thousand dollars range, whereas obviously you have strategy and the other end of the spectrum. For tournaments, I would think Rory is going to be roughly around maybe thirty percent known.
It obviously made different for tournaments. For example, this week, you're gonna see a lot of the players wanting to choose guys maybe like Haidaki Matziyama because he won last week, and I believe when DraftKings is you know, in the mid ten thousand range, so you're gonna see him be highly owned. You're gonna look at you know, people are obviously going to be on Speed based on how he's been, how he's been playing, you know, trying to get the Grand Slam.
Here.
People are obviously on Rory.
So you try to see, is what guy up there is not going to be as high owned and you may be able to get him at a reduced ownership in a tournament. And that's kind of a way where you know, you can distinguish yourself and have the ability to you know, to win a big if you're in a big draftings tournament such as like they have the Millionaire Maker this week. So an example of a guy you may want to play there may not necessarily be
the best play. But let's say if you have Jason Day at ten four hundred, he's one hundred dollars less than Handaki Matziama, you're gonna have twenty to thirty percent of people on Matsiyama. You're gonna have eight to ten percent maybe on Day, maybe even less. But we do know that Jason Day can win major championships, and he did.
He did show a little bit.
Last week that hey, he can actually you know, he's broken out of his slumpus a little bit. I mean, obviously he's still has some lingering injuries. But on a golf course where you have did it long and you know, if a guy that's a hot driver, watch out, that
could be Jason Day. And you know, if he happens to let's say you have he's only eight percent known, and you happen to have him in a lot of tournaments in your rosters, you're gonna be looking pretty good because you know you've posentially narrowed it down, knocked out ninety two percent of the field because they don't have Jason Day, Whereas if you have Hideki and Hideki does good, you still got to deal with thirty percent of the field.
So it's definitely a little bit different.
Strategy between between the cash games and double ups versus some of the bigger tournaments, especially like the Millionaire Maker.
I think this is good advice too, for you know, your office pools and other things like where you know, going here a little bit against the grain if they do well, If if you're in a forty person pool or twenty person pool, you can you can make such big headway with just having a player that nobody else has. Like I'm a I'm in this like Majors draft every and it's we've got like thirty guys and every right picks. It's a snake draft. And I had the tenth pick
or eleventh pick. And then I was sitting there looking at Justin Rose and Jason Day, and I picked Rose, and my buddy right behind me is like I got picked Day, right. I'm like, yeah, you gotta pick Day at twelve because like he's got such upside.
And it's interesting. Rom is another name.
I feel like people are out on Roum just because of his attitude, but he's been still playing so well.
Yeah, I mean, he definitely has the ability there.
It's just a matter of whether he can stay mentally strong enough, you know, for for four days, especially if it gets difficulty out there. He kind of gets hard on himself. I mean last week at Firestone, he played good for three rounds. Problem is the second round he shot in the high seventies and that kind of took him out of the tournament after he at least shot sixty seven the first day.
Yeah.
So, of say the guys that are priced above nine thousand in DraftKings, say your bottom tier of this is justin Rose and then up to Speef at twelve thousand, who are kind of your three or four favorite guys from in here?
Yeah, I mean so obviously Roy is the best at at the top at eleveny eight hundred. But if you're learning for guys that probably the upside to win here, I would be looking at brooks Kopka in ninety two hundred, and the reason is that is he just performs in majors. Obviously he won the US Open, but he has a huge streak for the last couple of years to where he just performatively almost whole top thirties in his majors.
Last couple of years.
I mean he's seventeenth at the Bridge Down six of the British, first the US Open, and then eleventh of the Masters this year. So he has an ability to perform here. If looking at you know, some courses to where you know he might have He's played well in the past. He's played well on courses that had this type of champion's ultradorff grass. He's made the you know, the Sweet sixteen at Austin this year, was final eight there at Austin the year before, has played well at
the Valero Texas Open, finishing second there this year. At the Memphis Saint Jude he's finished second and third and two of the last three years there. So he's very familiar and comfortable with this grass. Obviously it's not all dependent on putting. But guys that have you know, had success on similar type tracks, I think you got to look a little bit more towards.
Them this week.
Yeah, Andy, Andy Natchez us that that great driving ability.
He hits it really long and really.
Straight exactly, So I like Brooks Kopka a lot this week. Also, who are you fading in this group? Who do you not like of these top guys?
Yeah, so the one guy I'm definitely not touching is definitely gonna be Henrik Stenson. So, Hendrik Stenson's record at KORL Holl has been miserable. Believe, his last his last five appearances here have been mis cut fifty eighth, miscut, miss cut, miss cut. Obviously the setup may be a little bit different, but that's enough, you know, bad form for a guy at ninety eight hundred to where I'm definitely not gonna be on him. With that being said, I don't think a ton of people will be will
be using him in tournaments. So if you want to toss him in a one random lineup because he maybe five percent out, I definitely wouldn't argue against it. I'm just I'm just he's not going to be in my core group of players this week.
Yeah, he hasn't really done a lot to inspire enthusiasm and picking him this year. Also, it's been kind of a down year for for uh, Henrik moving down and this kind of will be interesting to talk about just with you know, some sleepers and some maybe outside of it isn't really a sleeper if you're in this next tier but outside of your big games you get in here.
You've got Justin Thomas at.
Eighty nine hundred, and we'll kind of go down to Thomas Peters at seventy Thomas Peter Charles Schwartzel Louis U says in at seventy five hundred. As the bottom tier. You've got a lot of interesting names here, and I always think this is kind of the tier of guys where where you could get a guy that comes into the top five, and this is where you can kind of make your lineup really pop.
Yeah, definitely, I see this week, especially if you can.
It's me tough to fit two of the top studs that we kind of mentioned before in the same lineup, So you're gonna be putting, you know, two or three three of these mid tier players.
In your lineup.
And so the guy that I liked the most this week is actually Phil Mickelson, which I don't think a lot of people realize.
How good he's been at Kuil Hollow.
So in the last his last ten appearances at Kuil Hollow, he's gone fourth, fourth, eleventh, third, twenty sixth, ninth, second, fifth, and twelfth and third. So that's a pretty solid performance for the last ten appearances of quil Hollow, which if you think about it, you wouldn't expect Phil to play great there on paper because you kind of have to keep it on the planet off the tea box. But for some reason off the tee there, he's been absolutely
amazing the last four or five years there. He's actually been near the top of the field and strokes gained off the tee at quil Hollow, which is kind of surprising because he doesn't he doesn't necessarily, you know, a bomber like Rory, but he's just been hitting fairways every time he's been playing at quill Hollow, which if he does it again this week, I wouldn't see reason why he wouldn't contend again. And he's another guy that puts
good on that champions Bermuda. And so one of the things that should put together this week was looking at you know, stroke stained putting on that type of grass over the last three years versus what their current stats are, and you know, I was able to find, you know, six golfers that kind of pop there, and you know, Phil Mickelson over the course of you know, a four round tournament, is gaining two and a half shots on the green putting on this grass as compared to his
normal strokes game putting.
On all of the grasses.
That's amazing.
Phil's grass, exactly. Yeah.
And one other interesting thing is the sand that they just put on the golf course this year is the exact type of sand from Augusta Nationals.
So that's another thing.
You know, Phil, you know, if he happen to miss the greens, a short game wizard, and we all know how well he plays at Augusta, especially with the short game hitting out of the bunkers. So that's that's just kind of another thing pouring towards Michelson this week.
Man, And this is one hundredth major.
It's ceremonious too, Exactly. I don't know if I could deal with Phil winning. I have this thing that Ernie Els is a better player than Phil, and I'll just I'll just never hear the end of it.
If Phil went, so.
We can hope for a Phil victory, then.
I will look like an idiot. I already do look like an indiot, though, so that's fine.
So what do you think of you know a name in here?
I kind of likes Tommy Fleetwood. He doesn't have any course history, but he drives it so well. I think this could be a good fit for him.
Yeah, I mean this is this is honestly a better fit golf course for him than it was at the British Open, even though that was kind of a local course for him. He's pretty reasonably price at eight thousand dollars to where for a DraftKings lineup, he'll probably be a little bit overlooked because, especially the larger tournaments, you have a lot of you know, casual DraftKings players that
don't necessarily know the European players. So you'll see this every major, the European tour players will be a lot less owned just because they don't have the name recognition. So you know, if let's say, you know Daniel Berger had the same you know, resume as Tommy Fleetwood, you put him on paper, they may look fairly similar.
I mean, Fleetwood's leading the race to to buy in Europe, yet no one knows that.
And you're getting him at eight thousand dollars and he's a premier driver of the golf ball on a course that needs that. So get fleet with a ten percent ownership in a DraftKings lineup, which you know, he's a very good, high upside play. He kind of reminds me
of what Thomas Peters was last week. This one under the radar talked about by a few people, you know, a good course fit, but no one really you know, recognized them because you know, he's kind of a European tour player, doesn't play much in the States.
How do you like Thomas Peters for this week? It seems like a better good fit. The way he drives it. He's a really good approach player, iron player, and he and he can get hot with the putter.
Yeah. I mean, whenever I'm trying to build a lineup for a DraftKings tournament, I'm not necessarily just looking at how they're gonna play. I'm also looking if my player plays well, how's he gonna how's he gonna get there? And so if Thomas Peters plays well, it's because he's making.
A lot of birdies. I kind of do a comparison.
You know, if you have some guys that say Louis Jus stays in or Zach Johnson, when they play well, they tend to, you know, limit their mistakes and you know they're gonna shoot fifteen under, they're gonna make eighteen
birdies and three bogies. If Thomas Peter's gonna shoot fifteen under, he's gonna make twenty five birdies and ten bogies usually, right, And for DraftKings wise, you're gonna want the guy that's making more birdies because a fifteenth place finish from Peters may be just as good as an eighth place finish from Zach Johnson, for example.
Yeah, yeah, that makes sense because the whole DraftKings scoring values birdie so highly exactly, So you're high on.
Burger and Hoffman, I know because of the grass, right.
Yeah, So Charlie Hoffman actually leads that strokes game putting differential. He's actually one point or four point four shots better per four rounds on this grass as compared to normal grass, which is which is kind.
Of a little bit astounding.
But if you look back at the course, he's done that on Valera text is open. He plays plays well every year and happens the puttwell there. I mean it's only a small sample size of maybe twenty or thirty rounds, but it's still a large differential. We really can't ignore.
Yeah, Andy, and he's hitting the ball great. I mean, the recent forum is out of this world good. So seems like another good fit for him.
Yeah, and he hasn't played quil Holli since twenty eleven, so I'm not really looking at course history for him. But when he goes, you know, thirdy Bridge downs second at the Canadian Open. He's played good in big events. Twentieth of the British, eighth of the US Open, you know, twenty second of the Masters, thirtieth of the players. Those are all big events and he's just he's just always there.
M M. Yeah.
I always say when he hit the ball well, it's it's hard to not be there. And he's hid it well all year. So Jamie Holmes is a guy that's won here. What are you thinking about him for this week?
He's another one if you're building let's say, if you're building five tournament lineups and draftings, you're probably gonna toss him and maybe in one, maybe one or two, just because he's another one of those high upside plays to where if he happens to have, you know, that week where everything's clicking, he's gonna be a birdie and gets you a top ten, but they're obviously, you know, is
the risk of him missing the cut this week. But if you're gonna try to win a tournament on draftings, you're gonna have to play some of these high upside plays like homes or repeaters.
You know.
The other thing is you might want to fade the players with Holmes because rumor is he doesn't wear a deodorant.
It's can be hot and muggy down there.
Yeah yeah, but his playing competitors may also be thirty yards behind him off the tee, so they may not smell that.
So I'm not in on Patrick Greed this week, are you?
Oh? Nah?
He just doesn't necessarily, you know, suit for me. I'd much st to take another guy at seventy three hundred, Brennan Steel. You know, Steele just is a really good player off the tee. He has good histories. Last two times at kual Hollow he's gone fourteenth and ninth. And he's also another one of those guys that happens to
putt well on this grass type. He's got you know, a posit the strokes game putting of two point eight compared to his normal putting one one putting on the step of grass, you know, not trying to you know, not trying to you know, beat the stat to death, but you know, it's a big difference when you're getting more than more than two shots over a over a four on tournaments.
I feel like Brandon Steele is one of the most underappreciated players on tour simply because he's sponsored by Wilson. You know, if he was sponsored by like Taylor Made or Calaway, he'd be like way more popular because he hits it far. His swing's kind of goofy, but you know he I just think he gets Wilson doesn't market him enough well.
And the one of the thing is he may go a little bit under owned this week actually because he's been consistent the whole year up into the last three, last three events, so he did he didn't miss a cut all year until they miscut at the Quick Amounts miscut at the British Open, and then he shot seventy five last week in the first round and then shot seventy seventy one and seventy last three, and you know,
no one he didn't really get any press coverage. No one really knew he's kind of flying under the radar, and you got a lot of popular plays, you know, similarly priced. If you're looking at on draftings, you got you got Caberrabeo, who just did good at at you know, at last Major at seventy one, you got you know, we got Patrick Reid, Bubba Watson, Russell, Henley, JB. Holmes, Schwartzel Peters, Oust, Hayes, and Hoffman Berger. You have all
those guys within a couple hundred hours a price. So you know, the ownership is going to have to drop off on a couple of those guys, and it may drop off on Steel where you may get him, you know, sub ten percent, which you know he could be, you know, a guy that you know could make or break your lineup.
This week, Yeah, speaking of Bubba, your Strokes gained last place and Strokes gained mental where.
Yeah, what do you think about Bubba? This week? We've seen some proof of life, but recently from the pescatarian.
Yeah, yeah, we.
Have said seen some proof of life. I mean he has had a little bit of glimmer of hope of this course. He did finished second back here in two thousand and nine, but since then he you know, he said you said three.
Other appearances and didn't have any top twenties.
So I'm not necessarily sure if if it's a great course fit for him, but I wouldn't be playing a ton of bubble this week. I mean he he would have to be finishing in the know the top ten to get a lot of upside for me, and I just don't really see it with his mental game right now.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's uh so, moving down into like the seven thousand range and below, I mean there's a lot of interesting names.
Tony fen Now obviously is one.
Xander Schoffley, who's been really hot and played well in big events is another seven thousand, and then you got like Lucas Glover, He's a guy that's always plays well here seemingly. Kevin Chappell. I mean there are there's just seems seems like you could create a whole roster with seven thousand dollar guys.
Yeah, you pretty much could.
Yeah, and that's why you're gonna You're gonna see a lot some of the roster construction where guys will take three guys from this range and then take you know two, you know, one of the you know studs in the top three of salary and then filling two guys between that eight to ninety five hundred range, and that's probably gonna be a popular construction this week for some of the tournaments. But I mean, yeah, definitely a lot of
those guys you mentioned I love it. I mean Tony Fenw has gone twenty eighth and sixteenth his two appearances here. You know, he's been playing great of late fifth of the Canadian Open, twenty seventh with the British Open, you know, even before that, went seventh at Green Brier. Literally the entire last two months, he's he's finished top forty every single event going back to the Byron Nelson in May.
So that just screams consistency right there.
And he's a guy that bombs it off the tee and he actually still keeps it in play for as far as he hits it. So he's gonna if he has a good driving week in terms of keeping on the planet, he definitely could have could have a top ten of this course. I mean, one of the other guys I actually love this week is definitely gonna be Kevin Chappel.
He's just another guy who's just striking the ball well right now.
His last his last two finishes, finished thirteenth at the
Bridge Dome eighth the Canadian Open. You know, people kind of forgot him out because he missed the two cuts before that, but it just seems to be a good course fit because he's he's another of those guys that's he's kind of like Charlie Hoffen where he may not necessarily hit it the furthest off the tee, but he's gonna hit it three hundred yards and he's gonna find a lot of fairways, which this week, if you're putting it three hundred yards down the middle of the fairway,
you're gonna be in good shape because you know there's so many holes that are long here where you're gonna be having one to fifty to one eighty in and you just cannot afford to be missing fairways and be and be far away. At the same time, you can't be one seventy in the rough. You have to be one fifty down there on one forty if you happen to miss and be.
In the rough.
Now, Chapel has two straight top fifteen finishes at Wells Fargo too the last two years at at Quail Howell, so good course history too totally. Then we get down in the sub seven thousand range. You know, we're starting to get into the deep sleepers here. Who are Luke Wis played really well last week, he's long. I think he's played well at this event before too. You got Web Simpson. I had somebody ask me today about Web what with the thoughts for the local member Bill hass
Is another local? Who are your guys in this in this bottom tier range going all the way down to say sixty you know, to the bottom.
All the way down to the bottom. Yeah, I mean there's there's a couple of guys. You have some good value here. I think you got it, you know at sixty seven ND I believe is you have. You have Gary Woodland, who obviously you know, didn't play great last week, but two weeks ago in Canada played pretty solid, you know, finishing fourth and he had He has a prettycent track record here. He's gone twenty his last his last three starts here. Quil Holly is going twenty fourth, fourth and eighteenth.
And you know he's an the guy that he hits long off the tee. I mean he strokes gained off the tee when he put in you know Canada finished fourth. Was is off the charts because it was just a stripe show. It was just three twenty down the middle every single hole. And you know he didn't necessily hit
a grade last week. But if he finds that form again this week at sixty seven hundred, there's not many guys below seven thousand that have as much upside as Gary Woodland just based on some issue based on the power alone.
It's one of the more depressing things is to look at Woodland's tea Degreen stats and then his putting stats and you realize if he he putted well at like a good level, he would win so many tournaments.
Oh yeah, I mean one.
Of the amazing stats was when he actually played in at the RBC Canadian Open, he gained fourteen and a half shots tee to green and lost two and a half shots putting and finished fourth. So it's not often you see a guy that lost two and a half shots strokes, gained putting and finished four worth.
At an event. Yeah, that just means you're absolutely striping at t the green.
So anybody else down here that you like outside of Woodland, Yeah.
I mean there's a couple of players you've had Danny Lee here, who's probably you know, a really big flyer here down at sixty six hundred. But he's another guy who's had success to this course, and he tends to be a really good long iron player. He's gone ninth and thirteenth his last two times at Kuil Hollow. He's kind of been, you know, pretty silent. No one's really heard much from him the last couple of weeks. You know,
last time he played good. He had a good stretch in late June early July where he went third at the Travelers twenty seconds, Wick Loans, and ninth of the Greenbrier, and then kind of no one's heard much about it last month because he hasn't played great.
Yeah, he had an elbow injury that he had to pull out of the I think the Deer with but he.
Withdrew for the first round of the Deer. But he did play the Canadian Open.
Yeah, I think he finished like thirty second there or something like that. So you know, I think he's back healthy enough to where I don't mind rostering him at sixty six hundred because he's just you know, he's a guy that wouldn't surprise you. He said, hey, Danny Lee finished fifth at the at the PGA Championship.
I said, Okay, that's believable.
Yeah, and there's there's not many guys down here in this range that have as much upside as him. I mean, obviously got guys like Jason Duffner or you know, like even maybe if Sean o'herry.
Who's had a good successor in the past.
But you don't have a ton of those guys down here that are gonna say, oh, he is top five upside. You got a lot of guys that may finish top thirty, but a guy that finishes thirtieth probably isn't gonna isn't gonna win you the tournament. You're gonna have to have some you know, longer shot guy down here finished top five.
You know, example, like taking a guy like Beef Johnston, who nobody knows in America but he's you know, really could try her the golf ball and yeah, he may only be one or two percent home Une DraftKings this week, and if he happens to play well, there you go. I mean, he did finish twenty seventh of the British in the last major, so you know, and for be second at the US Open, so you know, it's definitely there for major to where you know he's not necessarily scared of the spotlight.
Yeah, beef one at val Darama last year too, which was one of the tougher driving courses on the European Tour. So definitely fits him well if you got to drive it well, definitely. So any any other guys down here that, uh do you have a do you have a club pro that you're that you're picking?
Nah?
Man, I'm pretty much staying away from all the club pros. I mean, yeah, you obviously have like Mike Small from the University, you know, the University onaway head coach there is you know, always a pretty solid play. But realistically you're going to see maybe one or one or two of these guys make the cut this week. But I wouldn't expect any of them to, you know, really to contend this week.
What do you think about Grayson Murray? Uh?
Can I plead the fifth?
Yeah?
I don't know.
I kind of think he could have could surprise.
He's from North Carolina and you know, when he's cooking, he drives.
It really well.
He's long, makes a lot of birdies. But it might be it might be too big of.
A moment for him.
Yeah, I mean, that's another one where you're gonna have to have your mental game together. I mean, obviously the PJA Championship of the scoring is usually lower than most of their majors, but it's still gonna be a grind
fest this week. I mean, I'm expecting, you know, the winning score to be somewhere between maybe eight to twelve hundred par and you know, it's gonna play difficult in stretches just based upon the way that the course is set up, especially if the guys who won in the first two rounds and they're teeing off the back side, they're gonna have to play the Green Mile, which is what they call quill Hall's last three holes, which are you know, the five hundred and six yard par four,
sixteen sixteen, two hundred and twenty yard seventeenth, part three, four hundred and ninety yard eighteenth, and they're gonna have to go right over to the first t box till the hold of McGirt was talking about, you know, five five twenty par four, four fifty four and forty eighty par four. So you're going to play those holes in a row, and I expect absolute carnage between those six holes. You may see guys go into that six hole, stretch a couple under, and walk out a couple over.
Yeah, then it just wears on you for the If you have to play six really tough holes in a row, it's you need a little break.
So where are your favorite odds bets this week?
I think one of the best odds on the board is that is actually Phil Michelson that I kind of mentioned earlier, So I believe for the week, I think he's plus two fifty for top twenty bet, meaning you know, if there's a hundre dollar bet on it, you're getting your hundred dollars back plus two hundred fifty dollars back for top twenty. Considering you know his history there where he's he's finished inside the top twelve nine of the last ten years here, a top twenty bet seems pretty
pretty plausible. And he's also five to one for a top ten and he's finished you know, top ten six of the ten years here. So those are those seemed pretty good odds for you know, a guy who's you know, tends to show up in major and you know, really loves his golf course.
Mm hmm.
That's that's good. Do you have any other ones that that you're really in on.
I mean, if you're making it making any bets there, I would kind of, you know, look at maybe maybe towards some head to heads if there's some guys you don't like, Like if you're going against maybe a guy we talked about Henrik Stenson, if you can find a head to head matchup for him against any of the other top players, I'm thinking Stenson's got a good chance to miss the cut this week, so I would kind of choose, you know, the other player, whether maybe you know,
maybe match up against a Scott or a Casey.
Or a Sergio or a Rose.
I like all those guys that you know over Stenson, if you can get him in a head to head matchup.
M yeah, Dessa.
Rose has good track record here, he's done in the best recent form. But I feel like he could be a guy that could really play well this week.
Definitely.
I mean he finished third here in twenty sixteen, fifth and twenty fourteen, so I mean the forum is definitely there. The only question is is his current form there, because obviously we know he plays for he used to play or he played well in the pass at Firestone, and he didn't necessarily play well last week. But we know it's definitely there for majors because you saw what he played Augusta. It's just a matter of which Justin really shows up for us.
So h so you're picked to win. Who's is it?
Rory? It's Rory.
I've been on Ry for a long time and you know, you just cannot pass up what he's done here at at at quill Hollow. I mean it just it's been domination. You know, he went fourth in twenty sixteen, one in fifteen, eighth and four twenty fourteen, ten to twenty thirteen, second in twenty twelve. Yeah, obviously missed the cut in eleven, and then he won in twenty ten. That's just you know, I want to say, it's almost Tiger like, where the guy his last seven appearances he has you know, six top tens.
That that's kind of crazy. No, no matter what course.
That's on, mm hmm, yeah, it's uh, it seems like that's where you know, most of the hype is gone. I since I'm I'm back and down in my fantasy leagues.
I mean have to be you know, scrape from the bottom of the barrel.
I don't know who I'm gonna go with yet, but I'm probably gonna just take some fire, hope that nobody else takes them and pick up some points.
Yeah, you just gave me typical control and Andy, we.
Know it's yeah, well I change my mind every every day, so I'll uh.
You'll probably be going with Lee west when it's fine.
So no, no, the last Wood. You know, Westwood does have one really good finish here, so I did see some glimmer of hope.
But he's been gallivanting in there in in French look, Indiana.
He's not even getting ready down in North Carolina. He's been in Indiana. It was disappointed, very disappointed. I might pick Thomas Peters.
Yeah, it's a viable option. Maybe Fleetwood.
I'll probably pick Fleetwood.
I'm gonna pick so but uh all right, well, uh Les know what you think. We might be doing more of these in the future. Paullie, thanks for coming on. I know you got early morning tomorrow, so no problem.
Thanks for having me.
And yeah, definitely and if you don't follow Paullie, check him out. It's at Frida egg Pollie on Twitter, and he's he's really good at getting back to you, giving and giving you what he thinks about different things.