1067. #TFCP - Understanding Freight Markets!

And what I mean by that is I only speak with transportation professionals because at the end of the day, you guys, I want to talk to the right individuals who have done what you're looking to do or who are currently doing what you're trying to achieve, so you can take that information, apply it, utilize it, and see a meaningful difference in your business and your life. It is Thursday, ladies and gentlemen, as Corey Bukin says, happy Thursday. He's watching over on YouTube. We go live on YouTube, you guys. This is a solo show today, so no surprise guests or anything like that. But, you know, we go live on YouTube and I, I'm on LinkedIn as well. And you know, I have just heard from everybody who tunes into this show on YouTube that the stream quality is exponentially better over there.

I know that there are people who drop chats in on the stream here when I'm going live. Unfortunately, I don't see every single one of them. I don't get notified of them or anything. So if you've been tuning into the show and dropping it in on the chat and I haven't replied or, you know, showed it or anything like that, it's because I haven't seen it. I don't know what is going on some of these streaming platforms that I utilize. But at the end of the day, you guys, you know, I will continue to go live, but I have heard exponentially better things about YouTube. And that's really where I'm trying to transition all of the audience over to, is to come on to YouTube to watch the stream.

But with that being said, ladies and gentlemen, we are going to dive right into to our topics at hand. It, you know, like I said, it is a solo show. And when I do these solo shows, I really like to. I really like to kind of dive into a little bit more strategy and tactics about what I do inside of my organization. And let me see here, Steve. Chilling. Yeah, man, it is, dude. It is 45 degrees out in Arizona today. It is hoodie weather. It is. I got the, I got the orange polo on underneath. And don't worry, it is a freight coach hoodie official branded out there. Hoodie gang, for sure.

But, you know, on these shows, when I do these solo shows, I really like to dive in to what I personally do inside of my organization, how I bid on freight, how I read freight markets and everything else. Because, you know, ultimately, you guys, nothing that any of us are really doing is proprietary. No matter what anybody out there likes to say. We're all really kind of using the same data. We're all going after the same things. Yes, some data might be a little bit different, but ultimately we're all calling on the same shippers. We're all using the same carriers and everything else. But, you know, it's ultimately the customer experience that really will keep you in business and keep your business growing out there.

But, you know, reading the freight markets and, you know, I'll get into the election and everything here a little bit later on in the show because I really wanted to dive in on this because there's a lot of talk about with Trump winning the election, how miraculously that's supposed to fix the entire freight market and fix everything immediately and everything else. And I'm going to be a little contrarian on that because ultimately, you know, that quite a long ways away. And what are you going to do in your business today to get things going? But, you know, I think, you know, as I'm out there cold calling, because I cold call literally every single day, you guys, and I am trying my absolute best to get. Get new business. All right, so I've set those metrics up. I cold call.

I'm very specific about who I'm going after, you know, because we really do full truckload. Ultimately, when it boils down to it, I don't do ltl. I don't do air freight. I don't do intermodal. I do full truckload. So I'm really out there. I'm trying to, you know, like, I'm qualifying a lot of these companies that I'm calling as well while I'm in that process, because, you know, I got to make sure that they work with brokers and I got to make sure that they do full truckload, because if they're ltl, Only I don't want to waste my time on that. I don't want to waste their time either and sell them on a bill of goods that I can't ultimately come up with.

But you know, we're gonna fast forward to that time where it's like, hey, we got some business coming through, we got some quotes coming through. How do you quote freight? So obviously Green Screens is a sponsor of my show, but I actually bid on all of my freight with their prices. All right, so all of the data that I have used out there, everything I get, everything from Green Screens, you guys hit them up. All right. I think that they are the most absolute accurate quoting platform that's out there. And especially because you know, a lot of the freight that we're going to move you guys with a new customer is going to be last minute. It is going to be same day. It's not going to be, hey man, can you bid on this freight?

It's this massive RFP and we're going to give you all this guaranteed business and if you've gotten that cool, you are officially better than me at this job because the majority of the freight that I've gotten in my career has all started within when you get a new customer. It's a last minute opportunity. It might be same day, something like that. So we're going to go out there and we're just going to start with your basic drive in lane and we're going to go, we'll just do Atlanta, Georgia because Atlanta, you know, getting out in the ATL 90s rap, if you guys know what I mean. Ying Yang twins, shout out to them. But we're going to go Atlanta, Georgia to. And we're just going to go Nashville, Tennessee.

We're going to go random lane here and let me see, you know what, here's something cool that I'm going to show up here. So this is just my personal login here. And I like this right here. Up top rates in North Carolina and Tennessee may be affected by road closures. Check out the negotiation coach there. So that's kind of a cool thing that we're seeing. But you know, you're going out here and again, this is not necessarily what I would bid on this. But if you've never bid a shipment before, this is a phenomenal starting point and this is a very accurate rating rate for what you would probably pay today out there. And they're showing that and then you can go in with your margins and everything.

Else and see if you want to, you know, bid 20 or something like that, you can go in there and finagle everything on green screens, which again I use out there. And then it also shows a little bit of their confidence level on that lane. But here's one thing that I really want to show you guys. I want to show this. These are trends, okay? And this is what I pay attention to literally more than anything. Because if you go out here and see, you go all the way back to July, for example, and then you got, you know, a maximum of 1150. The median though is 700. And there was 156 loads that were done. And then in August, same thing, there's a median and then there's also one in September.

And then if you're look, and then October, Tom, and then also here so far in November and it's all showing a very similar price, right? Because it's, that's the thing is hey, how do I bid on freight for the long term? And then you can go and you know, hey, look at that you guys. Why did it spike up in the summer months? You can ask yourself that question as well. And you know, again, this will start to tell a story because then when you back it back out to March, February and January, it is ironically all within $100 of each other. The median, excuse me, it's all within $100 of each other. And we're talking about a thousand loads here just on this specific lane.

So now I've got this data, I've got this information because I truly believe that I want to keep my customers rate as similar as possible, that I can out, barring a natural disaster or something that's going to char change the market. As you guys can see, the majority of this lane in particular is all running between 6 and $700 that, that's paid to the carrier. So if I'm looking at that, you know, I'm, if say I'm going to take that and I want to keep my margins, you know, say you want to, you know, keep your margins at 15%. And again, I went to public school, so I always take everything I say with a grain of salt when it comes to math. But you know, I'm probably going to bid 700 bucks on this load to my customer, all right?

And then that is how I would approach this as a drive in. And I want to keep that as consistent as possible, okay? And then I'll know based on this data, the confidence of this. I know for A fact that I'm either going to make some money on it and then on the, on when the market flips a little bit or capacity tightens up, which in theory, when you're applying my strategy of using the same trucking companies time and time again, you're never going to have to deal with that. But anyways, I digress. You know that you're going to break even a little bit on that lane, and then you're also going to, you're going to make some money on it.

If you get that consistent rate, whether it's 600 or 625 or something like that, I feel extremely confident that you can keep that same price. And even after all of this, you're like, I personally do not think that the market is going to drastically shift anytime soon. Even after the election, you guys, I truly feel like it's going to be a little bit before we start seeing any major changes that are going on out there. Are people's confidence in the market increasing exponentially in the last 48 hours? Yes, it is very much their optimism is up. But again, you guys, optimism doesn't necessarily pay your bills. I live in reality and I base it on what is going on in my business today and the opportunities that are going out today.

And when you onboard a new customer, you guys, you're not going to get a massive flood of freight that's just going to be landed in there, all right? It's going to. It takes a long time to get those customers. So if you've been prospecting somebody for three years, for example, an RFP and maybe you're just getting awarded. That's not necessarily what I'm talking about right now. I'm talking about those ones where you've cold called them a few times and you get your try it shipment and then they're like, hey, we run Atlanta to Nashville for a while. I'm going to go out there and I'm going to feel confident quoting them that lane. And you know, and then let's look at this. Let's, let's pull up another one. We'll go reefer.

And then also one more thing I want to talk about here before we switch about this, another thing to keep in mind here, you guys. So this rate, for example, if this is a load that picks up on Tuesday to deliver Wednesday, or maybe you can get in there early and run it same day, I'm going to definitely quote this load right at that rate. Right. I'm going to take that data that's out there and I'm going to quote that. But say this is a load that has to pick on Friday and deliver on Monday. Realistically, there is going to be a higher price that you are going to get quoted by carriers on it based on the miles because it's only 250 miles. Okay?

So you need to take that into consideration as you are going out there and as you are bidding on this freight. Okay? I want you guys to be very much aware of that as you're going through this, okay? You need to be aware of the mileage. You need to be aware of. Is it a first come, first serve? Is it by appointment? There are some different factors that will come into play here. But you know, let's look at a different lane here. We're going to look at Indianapolis, Indiana on a reefer going down to San Antonio, Texas. And you know, this one, it's 1200 miles, okay? This is a reefer that's going on here. And again, if I'm looking at it from a mileage perspective, this is a great run to pick up on a Wednesday and deliver on a Friday.

Might not be the mess, the best lane on a Friday to Monday unless the driver lives down in Texas and they're going home out there. You know, again, those are those factors that come into play as I'm going in there and assessing some of these lanes that I'm running. And as you can see here, you know, again, you got to back this out. This is a brand new customer, right? This is, this is, I've never moved a load for them before. They want me to quote. I've been, I've done a lot of good things out there and now I'm getting my first opportunity to quote a load and there's not a ton of volume on this lane. But there is a lot of consistency that's going on here from a pricing perspective alone. Okay. And now again, details matter here.

If this is a load that has to be temped at negative 10, I'm going to take that into consideration as opposed to a load that needs to be, you know, temped at 40 degrees, for example, there are a different price that you're going to get quoted on that stuff when it comes down to a frozen load or a fresh load or a temperature controlled load. All right, so take that into consideration when you are bidding on this. But you know, there's not a ton of volume that was moved on this load or on this lane in particular, because you know, Indianapolis to San Antonio isn't necessarily a power lane out there. But anyways, you guys, there's consistencies and that's what I want you to pay attention to, the consistencies of this. That is what is going to get you that confidence.

Because as you can see, the bottom was essentially in June and then it's very much stayed the same about the $2,500 mark here for the last six months, right? So that confidence, that's what I'm looking for you guys, that confidence level that is going to come through for you so you can go out there and bid on this lane. You know, I might, you know, depending on the day of the week that it ships, depending on if this is a frozen at a negative 10 or if this is a fresh load or whatever that is, that's going to change my price. But this is a phenomenal base level price and that's going to give you the confidence that you need to go through and bid on this freight in the long term, you guys, because ultimately that's what you need to be looking at.

Because getting in there in understanding what the lane actually looks like for you is from my perspective is going to set you up for the most success. You need to know how this lane is trending because you got to deliver that consistency. All of the new business that I've developed here in the last two years, all right, because that's when we really got this brokerage up and running, okay, from the last two, essentially January of 2023, all of my existing customers that we had, that I had worked with in my past didn't set me up, all right? So all of the new, this has all been brand new business that I have brought on from cold calling me and my business partner, excuse me, I can't take all the credit here.

In these last almost two years, all right, it has all been same day, it has all been kind of last minute opportunities that have came through for us. But with that being said, you guys, I've had to keep my pricing as consistent as possible. And if I've never ran freight before, right, or if this is a brand new lane for me, you're going to be very nervous. Did you bid the right freight? Like did you bid the right price? Okay. And then on top of that, once you move that lane the first time there, the expectation is you're going to keep that rate as similar, if not the exact same for as long is humanly possible, right? That's, that's the reality of when you're moving a shipment.

You're not going to go in there, bid say 2500 bucks on a load, and then realize that you need 3,000 on it because you paid 2700, right? Your customer is not going to give you a second chance at that moment. So that's why I think using a tool like green screens is the best tool for you out there for any freight, whether it's long term contract rates or whatever that is, but especially in the beginning stages, you guys, when you onboard a customer and it's a brand new lane because let's be honest, none of you out here are the best at every single lane in North America.

I don't know why you guys say that on the phone, but anyways, that is going to give you the confidence that when you win that first load that you are going to have the most accurate price that you possibly can. And then if you look at that data that pushes it back out over for the last six months or nine or 12 months or whatever that looks like you're going to know that, hey, there's a pattern here, right? And that's what I pay attention to more than anything. I pay attention to the patterns and I pay attention to the. Where's the spike? What was that? Was that a seasonality of it? Was that a produce season? Was, was it a, you know, a natural disaster? Was there something that happened that caused that spike and then did it come back down?

And when it did come back down, then I know that, hey, that's just a short term blip. I don't need to blow up my entire pricing strategy to go out there in the short term because trust me, you guys, it's a lot harder for you to get your prices back up if you've ever dropped them. All right? And you know what I mean, if you've actually been in that situation where your customer says, hey, I need you to reduce your rate, you unknowingly do, and then you realize that you went too far with it and then it's a lot easier to keep it the same and everything and then there's data to back it up, you guys. That's what you got to pay attention to. So that is something how I personally read freight markets. All right, Those are just two small examples.

Like again, I could go on for hours about this stuff, but I got a job just like all of you and I like to keep these shows to 30 minutes, but you know, I think that with all of that stuff that goes on, there's there people are always looking for something, right? They're looking for something to make it easier. How is it going to be easier for me? I really think a lot of us need to focus on understanding how freight markets work. All right? There are great tools out there that you can go out and pull information back out for years. Right. And then you can remove the COVID era pricing from it. And you can see a lot of these markets are not as drastic and volatile as a lot of people might be out there talking about.

And that just to me proves that they've never actually moved freight before. All right? And again, take this for what it's worth. I've just actually moved freight. I, I've actually built books of business in this industry there is not much volatility. All right. Not as much as people want to make it sound. Yeah, there might be some lanes or some pockets that had major spikes, but there's generally a story behind it. If you actually peel the layers back to the nitty gritty, the rates do not change as much as people want to make it out to be. All right. That they truly don't. So with that being said, you need to have confidence behind the pricing that you put out there. Okay. Steve said future show idea. Why do freight brokers exist? Well, if you ask drivers, they shouldn't anyways, we know.

Although I don't believe it's common knowledge, lots of people ask why don't shippers go direct to carrier? I value the insight. So I think, you know, from my perspective, man broke. And I could do an entire show on this. I, I really could. But I think it's like a lot of things, freight brokers exist because if you're a direct extension or a direct partner for your shippers and your carriers, you can make it work really well. Right. Because carriers, they could go direct to shippers but they might not have a sales staff and then furthermore they might not have the ability that some shippers require. Right. Like a one truck operation is going to find it very challenging to find success with somebody who needs capacity multiple times a day, every day of the week.

So I think that it is that intermediate intermediary, it is bridging that gap that is, that's going on out there in the industry, in the market. And I truly feel that way. Right. And again, like that's why I love a capitalistic society. I love the free market, I love working in A meritocracy because like, I will be rewarded for doing the right thing. I will be rewarded for providing a superior product and service that is out there. And I think that's, that's why brokers exist, right? Because there is still very much a need for quality freight brokers in the market and there and for they will be for the foreseeable future. I don't think that goes away anytime soon. I really don't.

And I know that there's been some technology and stuff out there that's been brought into the market, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to be removed from the market. I don't think it's happening and I don't think it's going to happen at all. I don't think there will ever be a day, at least in my lifetime where somebody's going to wake up and brokers won't have a job. Shitty brokers probably won't, but quality brokers. And if you're, and if you're taking these times most importantly, really iron out your processes, you know, again, it's just like with the election that happened the other day. Everybody's waiting for a savior to come and fix their, for them. But ultimately you're overlooking the only individual that can.

And I'm putting my faith in God aside, all right, because obviously God is the only thing that I answer to. But it's also on me to fix this. Right? And you know, I think people put way too much, they lean way too much in an event or an election that they think is going to ultimately fix their stuff. Right? It's just like that with automation in today's day and age. Like you can have, you can automate your processes, but if it's a shitty processes, now you have an automated shitty process, right? Like, and it doesn't fix anything. And you know, I don't rely on anything else to make my business more successful. But, but me right in, and I'm saying that in the sense of yes, I have mentors that I work with. I have people that I talk to.

I have people that I lean on. Yes, of course, but like nobody, no president, no elected official is going to fix my business if I have a shitty business, right? And nobody out there is going to fix my inability to do my job but me. And I, I think that there's so much that's put on out there and there's so much that's overlooked and you know, and to bring up the election here on Tuesday, that happened, it, it happens every single election cycle. There's a group of people that are extremely happy with the result, and there's a group of people that are extremely pissed off and that the world's going to end and everything's going to fall apart. But one thing I think more people need to focus on more than not is how are you going to make this better, right?

How are you going to make your life better? How are you going to make your community better? How are you going to do? And what are you going to do? Because, like, we are society, right? Like, so if we want a change in it, you know, you got to go out there and put your best foot forward. You know, I'm a firm believer that if I want to better my life in my community, it's got to start with me, right? It starts with my actions and everything else. And, you know, I. I truly will never understand anymore. And I used to, right? Like, I used to be that person, you know, just not that long ago, you guys, I was £250 and drunk every single day. And I looked at the world a lot differently than I do right now.

And, you know, I approach it now as simple as this. I am the backup, right? I am the cavalry. I am what I've been waiting for my entire life to come and fix, because nobody else is going to. No politician is going to fix my life. Like I had said, I'm going to, right? I'm going to be the one who fixes it. Now, do I feel like there are elected officials that make our lives as citizens easier to operate in than others? Yes, 100%. I have never hid behind the fact that I am pro freedom. I am the. I said the other day the Constitution was the greatest single document ever written in human history outside of the Bible. And I will die on that statement. You will not get me to change my mind.

And I, I truly feel, though, that if we as a society, if we want this to improve, it's got to start with us. It has to start with our individual actions. And, you know, this whole, you know, throwing it in people's faces and everything else, like, I want to get back to it just being like, we're just Americans, right? And I truly feel that 95% of the people on this earth, not just in this country, on this earth, just want to work hard, provide for their families, and be left alone. I truly feel that way. I truly feel like 95% of the people on this earth are great people. They might look and sound and act a little bit different than me, they might make different choices than me, but I don't think that they're bad people, but I think that they're.

And, and I feel like the more of us that come together as a society, the more of us who understand that, you know what, I might not agree with everything they say, but like, I don't want them to lose their God given rights as people, you know, And I think that freedom of speech is a absolute cornerstone to that being a, a working society. And you know, the beauty of freedom of speech is you can say whatever you want, but you can also get punched in the face if you say the wrong thing. And, and I believe in that and I truly do.

And you know, I, I think that waiting for somebody to come in and fix your life, you're going to be waiting your entire life and you're going to wake up one day and you're going to realize that, well, wait a second. Donald Trump didn't fix my problems because your problems are yours, right? And I think that if you're out there waiting for any individual to come and fix your, you are going to wait your entire life and you're going to hit a moment in your life when you wake up and there's no more time left. All right? I can't stress that enough out there. You need to take immediate action. You know, you need to be the one who's committed to fixing everything. And you know, put, let other people talk, all right? Like I have a firm rule, all right?

A very firm rule. People are going to talk, people are going to have an opinion. But that doesn't mean that you have to give your opinion in that moment, right? Like, I don't with like anybody ultimately. I, in the sense of like, I stay in my lane. I am very hyper focused and dialed in to doing what I, I'm set out to do, all right? And that's to build my companies up, right? I want to add as much value as I possibly can and help as many people as I possibly can along the way. That's what I want to down to my core. I, that I just want to help people, right? And there are a lot of distractions that are out there at any given moment. It doesn't matter who's in office, it doesn't matter what somebody else might say.

I, I truly don't care because I, if it doesn't benefit me in the sense of like, accomplishing my goals. I don't pay attention to it. Right. Like, I could have built this entire brand on talking online and, and doing that. And I could have, I have been very tempted to take that route and I won't do it because that's not what my greater purpose is in life. And that's not what I ultimately want to do. I just want to put that out there. If you're going to wait for somebody else to fix your life, you're going to be waiting a very long time. And this is just coming from somebody who four short years ago was, had that mentality. And I think that if you just look at it, stop looking at it for where, from where you're not.

Start looking at it from where you are today. And what you can do to move that needle forward. If that's to improve your business, improve your health, whatever it is, you got to break it down into what can you do today to move that needle forward? You know, I, I try to keep this show about freight is as much as possible, but I think an event like what happened the other day, you know, it does take a time to, you know, just to send out that reminder that know we do live in the greatest nation on earth. We, we truly do. I will never, ever be changed of that. The United States of America is the greatest nation on earth. The Constitution was the greatest document ever written outside of the Bible. And I will always say that.

But you know, if you want America to improve, you have to improve, all right? Plain and simple. You have to improve as an individual. And then your household improves, your neighborhood improves and everything else. And it goes all out there and it starts inward and then it goes out in small steps like that out there. So if you're out there waiting for somebody else to come in and fix your hate to break it to you, it's not happening. You got to be willing to do that. And if you want things to improve in your life, you got to be the one to make those changes, to make it happen. But that is going to be it for today, ladies and gentlemen, as always. You guys, if you guys got value in what you heard, subscribe to the show.

You guys share it out there to your network because if you see value, your network's definitely going to see value as well. I appreciate you guys. I love you guys and we'll be talking to you soon.