How the Past Shadows China’s Future
Summary
Odd Arne Westad, a leading historian, discusses the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations, arguing that while the Cold War offers some lessons, the pre-World War I period provides more resonant parallels for understanding today's multipolar world. He explores China's regional ambitions, Xi Jinping's strategic use of historical narratives for legitimacy, and the increasing risks associated with flashpoints like Taiwan and China's burgeoning alliance with Russia. Westad cautions policymakers to learn from history's pitfalls to avert potential conflicts.Episode description
The biggest questions in U.S. foreign policy today tend to be about China. Policymakers and analysts argue over the implications of China’s rise, the extent of its ambitions, the nature of its economic influence, and the meaning of its growing military strength. Underlying these arguments is a widespread sense that where Beijing once seemed likely to slot comfortably into a U.S.-led international order, it now poses a profound challenge to American interests.
No one brings more perspective to these arguments than the historian Odd Arne Westad. In a series of essays in Foreign Affairs over the past few years, Westad has explored the drivers of China’s foreign policy, its approach to global power, and its fraught ties with the United States. He sees in the long arc of Chinese and global history a stark warning about the potential for conflict, including a war between China and the United States.
But Westad also sees in this history lessons for policymakers today about how to avert such an outcome. Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke to Westad about China’s complicated past, about how that history is defining its role as a great power, and about the paths both to war and to peace in the years ahead.
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