Epsiode 267

I won't make some glorious.

Oh yeah, hello, what thief foot book? Freecap Podcast Week ten, I said, fucking teams NFL season. I'm real going there as always been a long word. Listens listen to this on Apple podcast Google sounds like it's free quaestion Love Facebook.

A fucking and now it's time for the good. Oh that's good.

That's good.

Well, that's just fucking great.

God's just fucking great. Go bad, it's bad. It's bad.

Well that's fucking not good.

And the are you fucking kidding me?

Are you fucking kidding me? Are you fucking kidding me? God?

Damn it? Are you fucking with me?

All right, boys and girls, As always, we started off with a good will. Look, I know I come on here and say this every week. Some people might think we get tired of say that. I fucking don't. It's another winning week as a company at FGA twenty five and twenty two. On the week, we just keep on fucking rolling. Baby c k our boy star of the fucking Week thirteen and six, killing it week after week. He has hit his groove. Now all your eight is

Yeah, those pick sixes are huge now too.

We get to get this ship for free.

Those pick sixes contests are huge now or whatever. Hell, I've never done on short but I think you can pick, Like if you get four out of four, it's like, isn't it like a ten to one or twenty to one?

I don't, yes, yes, depending on what it is. Yeah, it's huge money, like yeah, by the package money HANDI or fists by his fucking buy a fucking package is price sales. Long Horn always says, you're literally doing everything wrong if you do not do that, all right for me, eleven and ten on the week, We'll take another fucking overall winning week. I hit my free pick on Jackson State. That's right, Jackson State minus twenty eight and a half nine and four now free picks for the year for me.

I don't know, Yeah, you know, sometimes these things happen builds. By the way, he only had twenty eight yards rushing, which that's just I don't I don't know what they're doing. Look, you take a you get a win with the worst coach in football. I'm just gonna I'm not gonna try to overanalyze it. And his defense sucks. He gave us maybe maybe maybe, but yeah, you're you got Dylan Gabriel on the road who threw thirty two times and you can't even turn him over in New York. That's fine

They really only gave.

Up I'll get into the thirteen this game and they are kidding me. Yeah, so all of this was but m yeah.

It's it's just one of those It was just one of those games that was like deathtined that just happened.

It was just yeah, all right, moving.

On Seattle minus six and a half. I put that out to my clients and This is a combo platter because Longhorn did him Arizona plus seven to his I was honestly hoping that I would win and he get the push right on the number, but Seattle obviously had other plans. Longhar did lose two units on the danger zone in this one, and even though I warned him not to play the money line because Seattle was my survivor picked, he decided to do that.

Anyway.

A great game for me, not so great for Longhorn, and the same hell true really for both the team Seattle's offense. This is the most explosive offense, boys and girls, that we have seen since the two thousand and one Rings. That was a stat I heard while I was listening to the game while I was traveling yesterday will I looked it up and they're actually on pace to beat the Greatest Show on Turf for explosive plays, which those are categorized in the NFL as pass plays over twenty

Game pre scores like five scores.

I mean it was, I know, but it was three. After they got down three, they got back within three, but it never got back within two scores. So I know you had some thoughts on this game.

Well, I mean, look, I mean it was always do the wrong pick. I'm not gonna sit here and say it was a good It was like should have should have been this, should have done that. But like they got down twenty eight to nothing or thirty five or whatever the fuck it was.

And and it was very.

Early, so you can call it trash time. But since like a quarter and a half of the game they basically outplayed them, and the exposure it.

Is by definition of the actual like you look up the trash time in the definition, man, well, advanced analytics the rest that's.

Fine, it's fine, and I'll accept that. But if you're gonna do that, then there was trash time from a quarter and a half on, which which when you're out about thirty five, ye're that's fine, you can call it trash time, which you're you're almost never gonna lose that game. I don't know that, Like, you'll never convince me that a team that has looked completely different comes out and goes down.

I'm thirty five to nothing. There isn't something else going on there.

And you know with the way the scuttle butt of the way the coach handled the collar benching, and that's what that's just what it was. It was. It was a coyler was healthy to play or almost healthy to play. Last week they went with Brissett. Brissette plays well against

He's gonna have a clique.

Every person, there's always a click and he's a quarterback, so he's one hundred percent and have to click. He's been there for seven years, however long it's been so and it really really takes one or two scenes, probably not, but like it only takes one or two steeds of this is shit. How can they do this to how can they do this to them? And you just you you derail the thing. Now, this is an unproven theory. This is just what I'm this is just my thoughts.

Clearly you weren't listening on the Pias when I said that DeMarcus Thorrens is gonna have two defensive touchdowns in the first quarter, I literally said.

That, allow So so look, I take it's a bad loss for me. Obviously I took the l and it hurt. But like, I'm not changing what I said on the podcast as their Arizona is still a play on team because you can have your one game mutiny and you major point. They they you got shit stomped or whatever they're going with Brissette going forward. So now it's time, okay, you major point, let's all get back to playing football. And and yeah, the fact that they were down thirty

Storm for Seattle. To the two defensive touchdowns in the first quarter. It's hard to come back from that. And then I think that the big takeaway from me, I do have to obviously downgrade Arizona.

But that's fine, that's fair.

That the bigger takeaway for me was, Okay, now we've seen them against and I think I texted during the game and we'll get into it a little bit later with some more of these scenes. But to me, Seattle, and who else to text you about? Oh the Rams, Seattle. The Rams to me have now separated themselves for the rest of the NFC through halfway through the year, like they're just a really good fucking team that which you called you fucking had them win the division. I did not have them in as good.

Well they're tired, so I mean they're they're tied with the Rams, so it's it's gonna come.

I got a chance, and I never thought they would have a chance to be this good, and they truly are. So we saw Arizona step up in competition from the Dallas, who is very a middling team obviously two probably best team, second best team, however you want to rank him in the NFC right now. And we saw the difference of that talent play out on the field, and on top of that, the perfect storm of two defensive touchdowns in the first quarter that gets into it gets rolling, it got away.

So it happens. Take you just take it.

Well, I'll tell you what, my buddy Longhorn, though only man on the planets, only man on the planet that had Miami put it out plus nine and a half of his clients. It wasn't just bullshitting. He also hit the big dick pick two units on the plus nine and a half half a unit of the money line plus four hundred. That's two more units there, boys, the math. That's a units on the Big Dick. I don't have

I think it's like, I think it's like plus nine thousand or something like that easily. I don't have the numbers in front of me either, though, so I could bet wrong.

But look, I'm just gonna get out of the way.

Bring all there.

That's an awful, awful, awful loss for the Bills, the long Horn, all your flowers. Sir, you're the only man on the planet. You're I'll get into the survivor thing later, but this game literally made six people and I'll get into it later millionaires and I'll explain later. But you are the only dude. You're the only dude, so take it away.

So yeah, well, you know, obviously I thought.

There was before I let him take I was even bragging about you. I was just eating dinner at a bar at a at a restaurant, sitting at the bar, this guy sounds like, how the fuck you picked NFL? Who the fuck ever saw Miami beat? And ba blah. I was like, well, actually I got a guy said it out loud on the podcast, and everybody laughed at him. And then what do you know, what do you know?

Yeah, you just got to pick your spots. You know that that's the only thing about about picking the upsets. And I'm just a basically on the podcast in case I have noticed, like the other two handicappers are actually real good handicappers. I'm more of a like, pick your spot and pick these underdog type guy, because basically all do is pick the underdogs.

And but you gotta pick your.

Spots or you're gonna end up just blowing your wad, you know, and just and just bang your head against the wall. But this one a division game. The Josh Allen factor, why he doesn't cover as as a seven point dog or higher or favorite or higher, and the and you mentioned it on the on the podcast, and I kind of predicted it when you was getting it, when you were getting into it. This was a Devin H.

Chan spot.

This was always gonna be a David A. Chan spot. And now motherfucker went straight off one hundred and seventy forty yards rushing fifty one more in the air, just you know, like and then Josh Allen like on the other side, they lost to some more people on defense. By the way, they lost one of their rookie defensive tackles or defensive in landing Jackson, two more secondary people that either got hurt during the game or didn't didn't play at all.

I came, I came, remember the exact details.

But look, man, Buffalo is there's something not quite right with this Buffalo team. And they knotted up against Casey hats off. I was on kset on that one. It's a map. It's just it's just it was there, well, more of a spot than a matchup like like it.

They don't.

They don't seem to be able to match up will in the playoffs and they play them close. But you know, it's yeah, so I don't know, it's it's just a spot thing. And Tua didn't kill any like you didn't, I mean fifteen or twenty one.

He did throw two picks, so he is still too.

I said it was gonna be a bad game for him, which is well, I didn't really like your money line pick, but I did like the nine and a half. I don't know why I didn't better myself, but I said it was gonna be a bad game. It was I mean it wasn't great. It wasn't a terrible game eight point two yards per clib He only threw seventy three yards. But like you said, and we talked about the podcast, the said eight change should have a good game. You said,

We're gonna see in just this big picture going forward with Buffalo by the way for a chaan, Yeah, going forward, we'll see about Buffalo.

I know kin Kid got nicked up.

I don't haven't heard the long term for him.

Man.

I don't know.

Man, I don't know how you're feeling about about the AFC, but I'm not feeling good fucking mess. And I'm thinking that Buffalo or not Buffalo, but Baltimore. I mean, I know they were, they were we might have to look. I put look, look, here's what sucks is. I put Baltimore out at plus seven hundred in the preseason. Also put the Rams out at plus twenty six hundred. So I've got some good tickets. But why I didn't double down when they were one in five and put them

I got some I got some stuff on them later.

Okay, yeah, well I'll wait for it then.

Uh yeah, great. I mean call of the Year, That's that's the call.

I have one of these every year, Like every year I have, I have one of these, and hopefully I can get another one before the end of the year, but I always have one of these.

At some point.

I'll get to how big a call it was financially for a lot of people a little bit later on, but definitely call of the Year, big dick, Pick of the Year, fucking great call, and I'll take Look, I'm putting Longhorns free pick in the good he had the skins plus eight because we've been telling.

You're learning that, you get it now.

Yeah, it's unreal. He is one of nine on free Picks. If you've been fading, like we've told you, you you're hitting it ninety as. This is the best thing that this podcast has ever fucking produced, literally fucking ever.

I might start putting it out on the patron page. It's just this is the fame of the fade, lock of the year or of the week.

I mean, I don't know how you don't.

And this doesn't just it's not just this year. This goes back years. This has been a while, two years years.

Uh. Look, I said on the podcast golf was about to have an outstanding game, graded out to grade three points of the BPG. He didn't disappoint, twenty five for thirty three, three hundred and twenty yards, nine point seven yards in attempt every time he threw the ball as the first down, three touchdowns, no picks, and even got some snaps from his backup because it was so dominant performance. But on top of that, also said I expect the lines have a good day running the ball as well.

Of the entire Do you have the closing number.

I think it closes seven and a half.

So never ticked back up.

Let me see, oh numb one, Uh close eight and a half, it did go back up to eight and a half.

So I, you know, because we talked about, we can't understand this line movie at all.

It just made literally no sense at all.

I was wondering if there was some fuckery going on just to just to uh, you know, the the Billy Walters type of thing where you buy a number down just just to pound it on the other side times two or three. I don't know, because it just made no and it scared me off, you know, So it's something that I would.

Have bought it down just to get the teaser.

That's what I was thinking.

It wasn't enhing like nine.

It wasn't nine and a half. It went all the way down at a couple of books to seven and a half. And I even asked you the buck, It's like, hey, if it gets to seven and a half, are you teasing the shot down? You're like no, because this money coming in. I don't understand. It scares me a way. I'm like, yeah, but Detroit's got a win, right, Like I don't understand, Like I never understood it in the first place.

Maybe it's just to get the money line number down because I don't see that. I don't see you buying numbers down to tease because then you still got to hit the other side.

So it just it made.

No stense from the jump, and it made no sense. It made no sense on the field. As soon as they kicked off, they had no point. Did it ever make any sense? It was fourteen to three and then the first quarter and it, I mean, it was just constant. Detroit won every quarter. Detroit, the Redskins couldn't even win the fourth quarter flowing.

And the most garbage of garbage they get to win. Arizona fought back and put no Skins never could. They couldn't stop anything.

They are the dead Skins. That is one hundred percent.

Tury I said it said the podcast, this team was dead. They they didn't do anything to prove me wrong. They the Lions offense had been at a funk for about a month. But turns out Dan Campbell they ran the two Dan play. They ran the two damn play. They let Dan Campbell call offs plays and they played Dan Quinn shitty defense. So you run the two Dan play, Yeah, guaranteed a great fun.

You don't get to do that every week.

But I did like to see that, because you know, we always wonder like, well, is Campbell just the he's the he's the testosterone guy, he's the raw, raw guy. Turns out he's not a dummy when it comes to to play calling either, And you know, that's what he kind of came up as his offensive, you know, sighted guy. You know, even even though he looks and acts and talks more like you would think he's a defensive guy, but he's not.

He's actually actually an offensive minded guy.

So coach in New Orleans. He was assistant offensive coordinator under Peyton there too, Like that's how he came up.

And he's an age so he's not an idiot.

He's a smart guy.

Just he just acts like an idiot, which is again, he.

Does not act like an idiot.

He just talks like him like he talks like a man that's got a thousand testosterone level, like maybe higher, I don't know.

Probably he's probably higher all natural for sure for sure. And the Skins, you know, longer talked about their best player getting suspended. He actually didn't even get suspended. They bought him out through one hundred thousand dollars. Fine, so he actually got to play matter. God, this Skin's offense is still so broken, two of ten again on third downs. But coach Bro's gotta go. His whole coaching staff has to go. It's house cleaning time in Washington. Just got

Well, I mean, without the without the without the quarterback, I mean, you get sure, Like we talked about it last time, just just switch out the head coach and get an.

Offensive guy defense this defense, and that's his thing.

That's the damn That's the damning part is like you've had two years to build up this defense.

And it seems to be going the other way.

Yeah, yes, it is not getting any better, it's got any worse. Uh. But Detroit, this is a huge win for them because you know Chicago went. Also, they got to keep up with Sugar Breches and division race. We'll get to that game in a minute. Any other thoughts on this one long run er other than the fact that's just this was just a demolition of a debt. This is a dead team walking. I don't look the Skins are We'll bet the Skins again for sure this year.

And they're lucky to go six and eleven this year and win. So, you know, but it's a bad mess. We should have both been on Detroit and it sucks.

Well, I mean, I was on my personal book, but just because it was I can't not fade that. Like, you know, it's ninety percent. I've never hit anything ninety percent of my goddamn life. This is fucking amazing, all right. A couple of the notes before we move on. Look, I know Taylor isn't gonna win the MVP because we don't give that awarded running backs, but make no mistake about it, he is absolutely the MVP of the Colts. Indiana.

Well, they covered the closing, they did clever the closing number.

They didn't close six.

But look, man, I think if Pennics can step up, they're not that far off. I know he's in his late thirties, but there's still hope there.

Yeah, don't.

I don't.

I've seen enough of Penis to know it. Like I think he's in that too, Like you know what he is. He's just anytime you can sort of got it. If these teams have not learned.

A little bit more hope for him than to just because he's not tiny, he's a real NFL body.

I think they're about the same. I can check it.

Six. I think who Ennix.

He's like six two I'm checking.

Uh oh god, six three two hundred. He does not look at he doesn't look at he doesn't play it. But they better not pay him.

His knees have been operating around thirty seven times. He can't move.

They better not pay Penix.

It's fine to take it, take a shot, but like, yeah, just start looking for someone else. And that Taylor. He had almost three hundred yards in this game.

That's we're doing. We're doing techmobile stuff.

If he wasn't running like, there's no doubt. But if we didn't give it to Saque last year, he ain't gonna.

Get it this year, he ain't gonna get it.

But it's uh, he's locking up the what's the other board? The offensive player the year. Yeah, he's locked in that. He's already locked it up.

That's done. Okay. Uh My Jags blew a golden opportunity to bury the Texans. They blew an unreal lead in the fourth and couldn't even get a field goal to win at the end. Look, Jackson's more is so fortunate to be one game about five hundred. BOYTL was awful again. There's no other way to stay it. I honestly don't have any clue long one what to do with this team week to week. And on the Texans side, Davis Mills was awful for three quarters and then magically in

But yeah, maybe maybe this one.

Gets some overpriced for next week. Maybe we can hop back on a fate spot with Jacksonville.

Well it'll be oh on Jacksonville, No on Houston. Well it should be Shroud should be back next week.

Okay, Well, I mean this offense stills even.

It's got its issues for sure, But but again it's not it's not as future as it was in the first you know, five six weeks of the other season, that's for sure. It's you know, it's had, it's having its moments, especially now that that Nico is back. I mean, Nico was a monster and he's a monster no matter what. But you know, again, one of the rookies, one of the Iowa State rookies, well, combined, the Iowa State rookies had nine catches for seventy seven yards.

And a touchdown. So they're they're, they're they're starting to show a little bit.

So I don't know, it's I still like Huston, And I will just say, even though I'm having a terrible year overall with the handicapping picking every game, in some of the contests that I have, I'm I'm in the money on those, and I needed Houston. I was on Houston and all I needed was twenty six points in the fourth quarter, led it. And that's kind of how I figured it would go. If we're being like I just you know, I figured they would scuttle butt around and then and then blow up for half for a

But yeah, that was that was my biggest thing.

But TL T L, Like, I was watching this game, dude, and he's missing.

Both of them receiverts.

Brian Thomas is out, Travis Hunter was out.

That's not why I'm downgrading Jacksonville. Well, the reason why I'm downgrading Jacksonville more than I normally would. Their best unit the entire season has been their defense, Like that's what's got them to this position. They play really solid defense all year. This offense has been terrible all year. They blew a three score lead in the fourth quarter to a backup quarterback who we all know and have seen for years cannot play in this league and they blew that lead to that dude.

Well he just did play in the league and won a game.

So well that just shows you how like you have to downgrade this Jacksonville team. That defensive collapse in that game, and it's all on the defense, I understand the offense is and doing anything.

Who cares?

They never do, like, just go win the game on defense. It's Davis fucking Mills.

You know what they say, If a backup quarterback wins one game in a season, he's earned his contract.

If he wins two.

Or three, oh yeah, lock him up for five years as so, like Davids Mills just for that one win, just bought himself three more years in the NFL. Like, I mean, that's just how it works for backup quarterbacks. You win a game in the NFL as a backup, as a Davis Mills, you just guaranteed NFL pension another three years of making whatever backup was it five million average?

Probably that they make.

So he literally just made him another fifteen million dollars in his career on that one win.

So that's awesome.

He's security his children's retirement on that way. To give up threes, like it would be different if it was tight the whole game. And he makes a play, you know, and the Jacksonville camp bake and play. No, they're down by three. They let up twenty six points in the fourth quarter. That's and I know the last one was defensive. Yeah, that was just whatever. Nineteen points. Yeah, you give me nineteen points.

So they kick that points. I don't know, it doesn't matter.

Yeah, well maybe they did, Maybe they did. I don't know, it doesn't matter. You gave up eighteen points whatever, you gave up to a dead offense and a quarterback. Literally you can't play. I mean, he's had his time starting. We've seen that that and he looked like the same Davis Mills for three quarters like that game was over, the game was done, and all of a sudden it wasn't.

So it's what he marks another another good game for what he marks, by the way, And I don't mean to brag but I did talk about him in the draft, went in the fifth round. I said, this is a kid that's gonna make a difference. He's pretty much taking that starting role. He got fourteen carries Nick Chubb, you got five. So that's another I'll tell you what for a team that's not gonna do anything this year, Houston Texans, they're four and five having it three rookies on your offense.

That's just me.

Great defense, young talent offense. I'm thinking going all in on offensive line in the offseason, get a couple of free agents, a couple of draft picks, and maybe protect your quarterback.

That's just me.

I mean you have to at this point because it's decision making time next year with straw So you got to decide whether he's you're gonna pay him or not.

I think isn't he already paid? He's not paid yet?

Oh, because he had the great rookie year of the ship year last year and then the ship year this year. This is only a third year. Okay, so, but I think to be fair to the kid, you gotta get him some help on the offensive line. Again, do I think he's gonna be better than the average quarterback in this league? Probably not, but I do.

I'm still I'm still a believer.

I've you know, it's wavering, but I'm still travel believer.

I think there's still a possibility. I think there's a good there's a possibility I'm wrong.

So, and we we were seeing the slow growth of quarterbacks in this league kind of just this is like the golden age of the slow growth quarterback, you know, the same we just talked about Sam Darnald MVP.

I mean, Jesus correct after.

That Money Night game where he saw ghosts against New England. If he comes back and wins the MVP is this is not like this is a thirty for thirty. This is like one of the greatest stories. I'm not even kidding, Like, like from what he was as a as a as a rookie to what he's doing this.

Year, even year the great Yere in Minnesota, and then we saw when it was nut cutting time when he faced a team with everything on the line, with the number one seed, Yes New York Jet Sam Darnald against Detroit and then immediately the playoffs terrible and gone for him just to bounce back even from that, to come back and do this again this year, which is that's the reason why I wasn't a big buyer on him,

Somehow this is this is a caveat, This is an astrisk though this one definitely astris.

The reason why this is in the good though. Look, Longhorn and I both have coaches. This league will be low. Both have some we don't care for as much. Longhorn is not really a fan of me. The black head coaches. I'm not sure what that's about.

But maybe two, maybe two or three, I don't know.

It's it's I have to write it down.

I don't know.

I gonna have to have to brainstorm him. Now when there's there's there's at least one. There's at least one I hate.

But there are very few that we hate. Again most of the Blacks long Horn.

But for me, you hate Brian Daball. I've learned to accept the fact that he's not good.

Hate No, I no, you don't have. I fucking hated Brian fatass Dabell. I've been saying for two years he should be fired.

Obviously he got fired today.

That's the news that the Brian Davill finally got fired today after a loss. Maybe you're getting maybe that's what you're building too. I don't understand the move now to do it. This makes no sense. He lost Jackson Dart in the game that were gonna win his game. If Jackson Dart says healthy, why do it now? I'm confused on why now?

Well, I think I'm about to answer that. So I don't know why the Giants brought him back this year. I said last year, I said the preseason last year. My prediction was him, and him and Danny Dimes were gone done.

To New York.

I was one for two on that I should have been two for two if the Johns were smart whatever, but they brought him back. He made through half a season, but then the collapses to Dallas, Denver, and now Chicago, all of which he was over ninety five percent probability to win the game of late in the fourth quarter. The odds Longhorn for losing all three of those games is one in sixty thousand, which roughly equates to one and a half one thousandth of a percent. This is

Oh my god.

So I'm I'm so happy that he's fired. I want the Giants to be a good organization again, just because I'm tired. I'm tired of betting under them. I'm just like I'm tired to Chicago sucking, Like, please, just get a better coach in here, get some talent around this young quarterback and see what they can fucking do. Like, you don't have to suck forever. It's not a life sentence in this league. It's not supposed to be. It's set up for parody. For Christ's sake, How do you

I learned.

I learned to I saw enough over the last year and a half, after you've been rolling on for about three years that I was kind of But I did think that usually when you get the quarterback that you draft, usually that buys you some time, especially when he's playing. Well. That's that's why I don't.

Care he's gone. Who gives a fuck?

But like he should have.

Been fired when they lost the Denver game, Like he should as soon as they landed in New York. He should have been fired that day.

But Jackson Dart, I talked about Jackson Dart. It was a bad read on me because they didn't stop him. The two athletic linemakers could not stop him. He's still fucking He ran six times for sixty six yards and two shutdowns. Nobody can stop this dude's running game. And I and I again, I didn't watch him that much in college. I don't remember it being that much of a part of his.

Game, not at all, miss no, because he didn't have to run wide open now. But in this game that did happen that I said was gonna happen, where the Bears are gonna fucking run, and they did. They ran and ran and ran and ran.

So they did. But but I mean, they scored fourteen points in the fourth quarter after Russell Wilson came in, and it just you want to know, like that, that's the greatest way to see how good Dart is because they couldn't literally could not get a first down with Russell Wilson like he is. It's so bad.

That's what I'm excited about. I mean, I'm excited about firing because I hate the guy, but I'm more excited about the firing because now I think, like, Okay, Jack Start, he could actually be something in this league if we get the right head coach around him.

Like, and you're gonna get You're gonna get off the neighbors back healthy next year year we'll see about Scattaboo. But they needed to get a secondary running back to go along with Scataboo anyways, and Tyrone Tracy is not it. So it gets them one dynamic and uh, obviously they got the pass rushers on defense.

They need some more players over there on defense.

But yeah, we'll say about this for the off season when when his team building mode. But good win by Chicago, you know, take advantage of a quarterback getting hurt. That's that's what in the snow. I don't know why they were losing necessarily, it's it's hard to explain. So so you know a six and three team in Chicago, who I'm actually looking for a good spots to fade.

So they feel like a team to fade.

I've been looking for a good spot to fade them. I just had.

Yeah, they'll come, I mean they look. We talked about C. J. Gardner Johnson who they signed last week, made his debut nine tackles, two sacks, two tackles for a lot like it just that's a pretty good that's a pretty good debut for for a new team. So he'll be good. He'll be good for for a game or two, and then he will be exposed like just just like like a stripper on a dance floor. Like he he he

So congratulations, are your Philadelphia played? That's good?

Three and nothing?

Touchdown?

Now three? Huh?

Well they scored they score a touchdown.

Smith thirty six touchdown.

Okay, well you're ahead of me.

Then.

Yeah, that's another sounder, right, didn't they have a sounder or that you did have a you.

Had one, you know, plus two and a half of one unit on.

The one t oh ship. That's a good one name.

So it's gonna be a great way for the sounders. All right, Uh, time to move on to the bad. Let's see, I had Baltimore first half minus two and a half had them a couple of contests. For the full game. They covered that, but they lost the first half by one. Baltimore just did not get their offense going all day. Really, Little JJ pretty much threw that game away from Minnesota in Minnesota at all. Which that was the part that was meaningful to me because I

Yeah, it's just he's he's he's playing like a rookie quarterback, which basically he is.

So it's it's he wasn't terrible. I don't mean to kill the kid, but.

I mean he wasn't great.

It's just you.

See actually yeah, one one touchdown too, But yeah, he was bad.

He wasn't good, like I mean, and you do see something. You do see some flashes here and there. I mean, they're going to continue to build around next year. So you know, we'll get into what that looks like going to the next year. But you know, the defense, you talk about a jack on high defense. Like this is why minnesot is very hard to pick in.

This game though, Like if you look at Baltimore's total, I mean Minnesota game Baltimore, that yard for playing Baltimore. Baltimore's offense was not good in this game. No, they took advantage of the turnois. Yeah, I can't even put this on there.

Yeah, Derek currently three point eight three point in carry for Derrick Henry only four yards to carry for Lamar.

More and half in the first half. Because again their offense, they scored nine points. They could not get going in the first half. They really didn't get going all fucking day until McCarthy put in a position to get some easy touchdowns.

That was really about it, and this, this one kind of burned me on the on the every game contest. Is that because that line was at four and a half Minnesota and I suckered my way into the Minnesota side even though it did it close it at Uh what did it close at? And go back? Yeah, I wanted to be on Baltimore. I talked to all week about wanting to be on Baltimore, and then just because the line was at four and a half, I tucked myself into doing Minnesota at home. And yeah, Lamar destroys

Longhorn Head San fran plus four and a half out of the client's two units in the danger zone. Danger zone lost five units in the pot this week.

It was not so dangerous, not so dangerous.

The number got up to six at one point, it closed at five and a half. Obviously the market knew something, and in full transparency, I was gonna tell this pic until I saw that movement come down. I was like, what the fuck is happening? So I didn't back me off of it. And although the Bucks were in this was actually really it was a close game. Every time Sam Frank got in a position where they were one score away from the cover of the Rams would immediately

I mean I saw a little bit of a phony on this one. Yards per play total yards it was.

It was a really close game. Yeah, so every that San fran just could not get. You know, like these games gonna go back and forth and eventually a team getna stop and then a score and now we're back within one score, and that's a football game. Every time they got within one score of just the cover just to get it back to the end the four half. Every single time the Rams went right down the field and answered, I mean, every time San Feran need to stop, they could not get it.

Yeah, and I'll just say I'll just say, well, a couple of things, because I actually watched this game pretty intensely, and I don't know what the numbers came out to, but the Rams and this three tight end set, which is kind of like I've never seen so many teams do three tight end sets this much movie, and it really is. And when we know that people's dig and zag and the NFL is kind of its kind of how things work, they three tight end this defense to

During the game in this.

One look jump, it was an even game and.

Rams jumping fourteen nothing, and that was basically it that that was just basically if they didn't jump fourteen nothing, if it went back and forth to start the game, it would have been back and forth the entire game and then you probably land in in the cover with a three point win.

It it was literally back and forth the whole game. Fourteen nothing and seven seven seven, seven, fourteen twelve, there's fourteen that they could not get past that fourteen nothing hole to get back in the car. Every time they were right their position.

It was it was Stafford, and it would be Stafford just doing some he's so fucking good, Like I mean he is. I mean we talked with I mean, duh, everybody knows he's fucking good, but like he just just continues to show how fucking good he is.

It's a nasty Brady on that broadcast, Like Brady was pulling out everything he sees, everything he's doing now every like you know, they had a good conversation during the week, you know.

Yeah, the games so slow. That the game is so slow for Stafford right now, like that that you're not gonna throw anything out and that he hasn't seen That doesn't mean you can't throw roll down him on offense. Just like Brady late in his career, he would have games really on the score ten and thirteen points. Occasionally you can have something like that, but it's gonna be rare.

So it's only because people don't execute. It's not because you confused him.

Yeah, that's yes. The old line.

The old line just can't block and you got you you just you start eating sacks and you just knows nothing you can do.

It's it's not it's not because he's not standing it right.

Yeah, all of a sudden, you sail the ball goes over his head. It's picked off and that's gonna happens football. Yeah, there's there's nothing you're gonna throw this do at this point he hasn't seen.

And then McCaffrey twelve carries for thirty yards. That that Rams defense that you pooh food, That you pooh food on me.

I know, but I said that on the podcast. The reason why I didn't like your pick for sant Fran is because McCaffrey did not grade out. Will said the week before against the Giants, you great out great. Anytime he doesn't great out, Will, it's hard for me to back to San Fran office.

That's true.

That's that's something to look that's something to definitely pay attention to going forward. But are you fine a believer on this Rams defense that I've been that I've been pimping out for about a year and a half.

Now you coming around?

Now?

They look great, man, They look fucking great. They you know, they look like again it if it ended up being them, and I don't know how it could be, but I guess it could. Through seating them in Seattle in the NFC Championship game, it would shock me and shocked me.

A bit by the way. Speaking of we talked about the Dead Skins earlier in Emmanuel Forbes, who was a first round draft pick cornerback out of I can't remember actually what college got cut by the dead Skins. The Rams picked him up in the beginning of the at the in the off season as and they said, look out for this guy.

MANA.

Forbes is an absolute difference maker for the defense.

He's about five nine, one hundred and sixty pounds.

And that's why that was always the knocking I remember him now, Yeah, he was Jesus tiny, tiny, tiny frame. But that dude is bawling for the Rams and they love having them. You know, we talk of all the time. Good franchise, bad franchise. Did these just kind of the way these things go.

Coaching man coaching, coaching coaching for sure. All right, last thing I got here, oh the Carolina Panthers. I don't even need to mention the spread on this one, because it's all about Survivor. Longhorn and four hundred and ninety other people in Circus Vivor put their faith in Bryce Young to win a football game for their Survivor lives suck. And not only did he not win, he got completely

That's your q Q right there.

Well do the unthinkable and lose to the worst team in football at home.

Okay, Well, and I know you were taking it there, but you're playing my emotions right now.

Smoking. I don't like it.

Yeah, Like there's gonna be certain spots. Obviously I'll still play on Carolina because this was all Bryce Young. The defense played okay, like there was some look jac Horn, I watched his game very intendly, you know, obviously knocked me out of Survivors.

So I definitely had it on one of the three TVs j C.

Horn on defense. And I hate Nate picking because this is all about Bryce Young. But I don't know what the fuck Jase Horn was doing playing cornerback.

He was I mean, I suck shuck through for that was the best yards per temp number of the entire weekend.

Yeah, he had a couple of bombs. It was defense, And you wonder how close this is, how like things switched so fascinating because like it well, I don't know about the I don't know what the second mom but one of the bomb plays to the tight end.

He literally could have been sacked two or three.

Times, and he shucked fucking shucked his way out of it somehow, and he and he found a wide upen guy because the defensive players had left, had left him. But just Bryce Young, remember we were talking about, Like, I don't understand Bryce Young's body language. He is the worst, the worst body language quarterback in the NFL. He has no emotion. He's fucking deadpan. He doesn't fire people, Oh he doesn't. He doesn't get he doesn't get mad at people, he doesn't get happy with people.

He is the worst.

Like, I mean, yeah, I'll still bet on them if it's the right spot. There's still five and five, and usually at home is their sweet spot seeing it and usually at home is their sweet spot. But oh god, he fucked me. But I will say this. They couldn't run. They couldn't. I mean they all I.

Kept saying was like, just run the fucking ball.

Just hand it off, dubtell who's going for like one hundred and fifty yards every fucking game. Eighteen carries fifty three yards. I guess New Orleans what? But yeah, this is how, this is how you get a lot of people knock out and survival on something like this.

It's just I don't know NFL.

New Orleans, by the way, good, he says, all Bright strong on. It was all shocked for New Orleans. New Orleans running game poodle poop poop three point three yards per attempt through the whole team Camaro, he had eighty three yards on twenty two fucking attempts. Three point eight. They couldn't run the ball. They couldn't New Ship hit along with sixteen. It was literally all we gotta come up with the name of the is the suckle the suckle shuffle? What do we get?

I don't know.

All I know is there were empty beer cans being thrown across the room at my house because this is just when I see a team that is a dominant running game and they can't They're getting three yards in a cloud of dust against this fucking sorry Devans, I was getting so fucking men. And yeah, and the only reason I played Carolina is because you know, once you get to this time of the year, you you really should start playing out the whole year from the beginning.

But certainly when we get to this point of the year and survivor you've.

Got to plan out, you know, you plan out your year. And I and I went through and plan out all the weeks and I needed Seattle badly and in one of the other weeks coming up, and I'm like, well, we could play the Free Spot the Free Square now in Seattle, for sure. But if we want to win this thing, we we we gotta, you know, we gotta play card, we gotta. But now we're fucking done and we're out of it. And uh, I hate you from every Brice Young, although I will still I will still bet on.

You in a certain Spots player in the year for sure.

Oh that's all I wanted to hear that you hate him forever. No, between them and Buffalo, they fucked so many people. In fact, they in the Grandismo there's only one guy because there was there was only ten people left going in. There was only one guy that was on buff or sorry, one guy on Carolina. Four people on Buffalo, which the much better pick. Obviously, you're nine and a half point fucking favorites and you have Josh Allen. Yeah,

Yeah, for the most knocked out.

So now you're down to six. Could you imagine me sitting there, one of the six people left, and you're staring at six point nine million dollars and now you're all on the phone with your lawyers talking about shopping.

I mean, that's not You're probably not going to work Monday morning. You're probably like, hey, let's, uh, let's take some some paid days if.

You had one hundred thousand invest into a survivor.

But how hard that's true? In the first place, that's true.

You're you're just to defer all your phone calls to, uh, just the next person.

Inland Becky, Becky take taking on this ship.

Oh my god, what a great spot to be in. Sucks that I'm out.

Well, we'll still talk about survivors going forward, because like this is getting like I mean, really at that point, is it gonna last like maybe two more weeks?

Probably? Well we got a thou three left. Well, there's a thousand people leving the big contest.

I haven't seen the need, don't they say like a like a like twenty percent go out each week, So like so like maybe like twenty or thirty percent go out each week. So you're looking at about four maybe five weeks.

Yeah, we yeah, maybe around Thanksgiving this year, because in that contest, Thanksgivings two weeks, so I don't know how many is gonna be left in mine. I think we're at seven were it's like seven to twenty to start the week. I know at least thirty percent of the people were on Carolina, so that's gonna be a good chunk. And I don't know how many other bills, but it'll be a good chunk. Probably lose about half of mine too, so I should be looking at about three hundred and

Well, it was pretty early in the game, was it not.

Look yeah, it was the first It was the first quarter. In the second quarter, had the kickoff return and the punt return.

Oh, it was all the way to the second quarter. All right, that's fair then.

Oh yeah, So for every yard they lost they scored a touchdown. For every yard they lost, they scored touchdown.

Sounds like good, good, complimentary football to me. Yeah.

They had seventeen points in the half with a total of sixty two yards, which they got all sixty four of those other yards to make up the net negative two on their only sustained drive of the first half, and it ended in a field goal.

Shocker.

Now, the Jets had. The Browns had four yards per play for the game. The Jets had three point six. There is no fucking way this game should have even made it into the thirties, much less damn near fifty. And if you want any evidence of that, the combined score for the second half, which Longhoord knows is always the highest scoring half in the NFL games thirteen points. Thirteen points. This game should have been eighteen to ten Browns. Again, at least the luck got us to split here. But

And that's and that's with one of the more impressive young black coaches in the league. And if you haven't heard me say this before, Aaron Glenn definitely not a DEEI higher at all, Like this guy earned his way to head coach because remember how good that Detroit defense has been for the last two or three years, Like I mean, that's a lots of lights out defense. And he took bad lights.

They're actually they're actually excellent. Now that's what's been carri So.

Yeah, it's the I can't believe it.

Oh my god, that was such just an ass whooping for me like that that game again, happy we got to win on the plus two.

But usually if you get one kick return or defensive return touchdown, you're over as fucked. If you get two, you're so proper fucked. It's not even.

Actually, when the total was thirty eight.

That's like a third of it right there, more.

Than a third.

It was seventeen seventeen and a half. I'm like, well, they only need wont score. I'm fucked. And then I didn't even look at the games. I was driving. The next time I stopped like a gas station. The third core was over and it was still seventeen seventeen. I was like, yeah, I'm still fucked, but this is amazing that they through a whole quarter and nobody scored, because why would they score, because both these offenses are fucking horrendous.

You fucking't get it, all.

Right, sign up for some look ahead, y'all. The lines looking ahead to week eleven, if this thing will loode Okay, all right, Longhorn, anything tickling your fancy obviously, first bet has to be the Jets plus eleven and a half against the Patriots.

Where are they? Oh god, Thursday night?

Yeah yeah, if you haven't learned your lesson yet, you don't bet against the Patriots. It's just why would you ever? If there's ever like just the say it out loud better.

I mentioned the game. I'm sorry. I had it written down.

To Yeah, that was the best game of the of the day. But yeah, drink just real quickly. We can recap that one, Drake May.

Yeah, so that was a loss for me, the climb. Sorry, I had it written down somehow skipped over. I had Tampa Bay minus two. It was a spot play for me. The numbers grade out for Tampa to win by four, not a huge margin, but still.

Could have could have gone.

It could have been some Baker magic, but Baker's just not going to be the same without the running back and two receivers that that.

It's just they're not quite the same there. I will say this though, the score was fun.

Now, the Patriots deserve to win the game, so I'll take the loss. I'm not saying that, but there was a there was an opportunity for me to win that game, for sure, but it was do these pains. And I know I had all this written down, don't know what what happened to, but I wrote down literally like this Patriot team is now finding ways to win games even when, uh, they're not on their best game. Because Drake Maye, I mean, he was good, but he did throw a pick. But

Well that's what good that's what good coaching does. And the two things from this game that I would mention is the call and the clock management of the coach. Why am I forgetting that rabel for New England to burn a play down at the goal line.

I don't know if that was balls and.

It took a fourth down throw by Drake May to bail his ass out. Now, great catch all, Yeah, all that's true. But I think in theory, whether it worked or not, I think that's the that's very analytical in advanced thinking way. So I kind of support that because he got the two for one. He knew he's getting the ball coming out of halftime, so they got the touchdown there, the touchdown in the second half. That's literally it that that was like the whole game. Second point

So I'm just saying, package that stay there for the future.

Even Tony Romo mentioned it, like like Jim, they're in trouble here. Drake May has struggled with with his rain. Oh, Jim in this rain it's a problem. So if there's a rain game, like maybe they play Seattle or you know, whatever the case would be. If it's a rainy there's gonna be weather, so like this is something to watch, It's just something to watch. I don't know. He was he looked so bad when it was raining, and then the rain stopped and he and he was fine after that.

Your boy Boca did write this down to another monster game. I mean, this kid is he's now the odds unfavorite offensive rookie of the year. That's dark Dart's pretty close though.

Well that's true. Well yeah, the quarterback.

And they're one and two on the odds. Yeah, it'll it'll have to be Tampa Bay going. It'll be because Tampa Bay wins the division would be the reason why he would win it and the Giants Arbuser falling into the fucking nether worlds. But yeah, that I don't know. I'll take the loss. The Patriots deserve to win. I'm not saying that I got it. Wasn't a bad beat or anything like that. I'm not saying that, but at least at least in that we had a chance at

You know better. The Jets, I don't think you are. I think you are so looking ahead.

I don't know.

There's a couple of games that stand up early before we are actually getting to you know, some of the diving into some of the handicaping. But the free squares back on the board. You got Houston Tennessee plus seven at home. That's the free square on Houston. Stroud should be back, should be back. So I'm always gonna look to to bet against Tennessee. They're the free square.

Think I'm pretty sure I have Houston left there you go.

Now, that would be Oh, if Tennessee beats you, that's you'll be throwing You'll be throwing beer cans. That's true. That is true. Baltimore, excuse me, Cleveland at home? Catch an eight Division game this is back in their sweet spot. I'm not saying I'm gonna be on it. I'm not saying I'm not gonna be on it. But that's that's back in their wheelhouse. Cowboys on the road. They're getting a lot of players back healthy, not not just the

Over shown at linebacker.

They're getting a secondary player back to this I'm having a brain part, but could be different looking defense.

So they're looking at okay, let's.

Oh, the rookie, the rookie cornerback they draft in the second round, sorry him overshown And then they and then the trades they made before.

That, they're going to go to a five. They're basically going to the bear front. Now you've got Now, you've got clowny they didn't have. You've got the Diggie Zua. He's been kind of middling again this year. You got the other free agent they brought in defensive are they traded for the defensive tackle. He's been kind of middling this year again. But then you got you've got Solomon.

Thomas and and Quincyway.

Now Quincy Williams. So now this is a completely different defensive line than what we started the year from for Dallas. Five man Bear front Well and and the rookie anyway, the rookie from Boston College.

He's yeah, well that his real name, but it's close enough. He's starting to starting to he We'll say this for another time, but all the rookie pass rushers are not getting sacks. It's a weird thing. Rocky's only got two carter for the Giants. I think he's maybe he's up to two or three now.

He's still the odds on he was every defensive of the year just because of the pressure numbers.

Yeah, they're they're getting good. They're they're not getting home yet. But this this that can happen with the rookies. But yeah, look out for the Cowboys. I'm not saying that they're gonna be like I mean, obviously they're probably not gonna make the playoffs.

I don't know what their odds are.

I think it's like ten percent to make the playoffs or something something like that, but they could look very different. Just something to look for, and then what else have we got. We talked about Cleveland.

How about the fact that the Dolphins are now three point favorites.

Ass that feels a little rich that Now that's probably back on on a Redskins spot, but they are the dead Skins, so I don't know about that. The game of the week has to be one of the game of the weeks. It's gotta be the Tampa Bay Buffalo Bills. What an interesting game Buffalo talked about they don't look right Tampa Bay coming off a loss. Man, I want to I wanted to be all on Tampa Bay there. That's true. That is sure is that that I usually

Steelers are really laying five and a half to anyone?

Where are they at? Yeah?

Those Cincinnai Bungles and Mungoles.

I don't know.

I'm a little I'm a little I've got When with Pittsburgh Steelers name comes up, I get a little bit of a throw up that comes into my mouth that they I can't tell you evy times they've beat me at get it catching three and a half this year, Like, that's that's there. If they're if the Steelers are getting three and a half, stay away, don't bet them. They're gonna burn you. They're gonna fuck you. You think they're gonna be able to keep it within three, they won't.

It's just just that game was so close for so long and I just literally got away from him in the second half.

Yeah, that's all I got.

Vikings Bears. I'm interested in that. Vikings three points me.

That's a good line.

That that that that's a good way, that's a good number to say that because you want to be on or least at least me personally. I talked about early the podcasts. I want to be fading the Bears. I'm looking to fade them, you know at three that that makes it hard to bet on Minnesota though from what you've seen from them. So my initial reaction is is is Minnesota, But I've got to dig into some trends and some all that all that stuff.

Two and a half a heritage, so but it's juice it's pretty much flat three across the board. So we'll see where the money, see where the market pushes that when. I'll be interesting to see that. And then your Panthers back their usual dog spot. But only three and a half points at the Falcons.

Yeah, but that's on the road.

That's that's you know, kind of feels like a Falcons blowout.

Yeah, Rice Bryce Young does not play well on the road. And oh god, they're five and five in the last three and six. These teams should be the same, they're like the same team like that.

Yeah, I don't know.

We'll dig into it. We'll do it on Thursday, all right.

Oh, I think the game of the week honestly is ram Seahawks. We just talked.

That's true, that's true.

Yeah, that is the game.

Points banged right at three, that's got that's a Seahawks number. That's a Seahawks number to start, because you're not getting if you think these teams are equal, which I don't know how you can think they're not at this point, there's got to be equal teams.

You're not getting home fields, not three.

Points, certainly not three points in a division game. So to me, the value is on Seattle. They're at initial. It looks like it's a Juice three, so not a not a legit three.

Yeah, it's it's two and a half across the board. That pretty much every book but all like minus or more.

So.

Yeah, yeah, you can get you can get an expensive two and a half or cheap three.

Well Chief three if you're on the Rams, and a very expensive.

Chief three cheap Seahawks. Yeah, I don't man, that's gonna be one of those. I'm I'm really interested thinking in that game for sure. We'll see how that happens. Then you got your sad friend, your bounce back spot. It's been the money spot all year. They're fucking only laying two and a half at Arizona.

Yeah.

Yeah, that's a that's their spot. That is their spot. They're a good team, you know. I'm gonna listen to you and see what the breakdown is on McCaffrey and howling grades out against the deepense. Yeah, so we'll see, we'll see what that comes out as. Then, have you got anything else that's different?

Me telling about that fabulous Patreon where they can find this company. They just continue to win week after week after week.

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A damn the people never paying book against even I will take a set of the