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All right? Ride? Who both seems? Here we go? It is week number twelve in the NFL. Where does the time go? But baby boy, hey just released the Epstein fouls and your old pals from FGH have made the list. I swear to god. She said she was eighteen. I swear to god. She said she was. No, no, no, not like that, not like that at all. Turns out, when the old dirty Jew had its elites coming over to polish off the knobs of the elites with the young ladies there, he threw them some winning football picks
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most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting how choice of the week. I still drunk, I feel right, do it?
Well?
Thank you very much, sir, sir, But tonight we're not actually drinking beer because we're under two week pre Thanksgiving dry out.
Who's week doesn't mean speak for yourself?
Yeah, me and this mouse in my pocket. But that doesn't mean that we don't have some information to impart because Longhorn, did you know?
Did on this day in nineteen seventy six, the single greatest movie of all time was released in theaters. That would be Rocky the Movie Written starring Sylvester Sloan was nominated for ten Oscars, and it won three of them, including the most surprised Academy Award of All Best Picture.
Now I know, because of how camping and ridiculous.
That all the sequels got, it's hard to imagine that Rocky was a serious film and it almost didn't get made. Longhorn And not many people know this little nugget, but originally Apollo Creed wasn't supposed to be black. He was supposed to be a Jew, and his name was Abraham Creedenstein.
And although the executives at the movie company loved the idea of a Jew being headway, I wonder why, at the end of the day, the thought was that nobody would buy the fact that a Jew can be a world class athlete or that an Italian can beat a Jew out of anything when there's money involved.
So Apollo Creed was born and the rest is history.
I will not stand for blasphemy about my Rockie series. Number first of all, loved all the sequels. I mean I was born in seventy seven, so I literally grew up with Rocky. And if you didn't grow up with Rocky if you're one of those stupid millennials out there, or God forbid, you're a fucking gin alpha. Jesus Christ, do yourself favor pop in all the Rockies, grow a fucking get some hairy nuts and start making babies, because you're gonna cause us to go and steak to the species.
And I think it's a direct correlation with the fact that you people don't know Rocky, So Rocky all the way, love.
It, yup, love Rocky.
Greatest movie ever made, no doubt, no doubt about it.
All right, boys, Wes do the podcast. Now.
We're gonna go over every game in the NFL in the air tonights and we are red hot. My boy Longhorn, perfect last week of the podcast, perfect last week to his clients. I feel I feel fucking like, oh, it's Thanksgiving mon soon, it's a run, That's.
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Oh my god, Okay, it's happening.
God, what do you think is happening right now?
Excuse me?
What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh you know what's happening.
It's time for all those wins coming to the Ads and.
Nightmber, Boys and Girls. We're gonna start off a week twelve. Like Longhorn said, the season is lying.
Bob better, get your pen ready, Bo Steeves, get your pen ready, Bo Steves, get your pen ready. People, because the podcast was on fire last week with all the sounders, the bells, the whistles, the big dick picks, the danger zones, we got a lot on them. This week we're gonna stay hot and I can't wait to get into this week.
All right, Well, we're actually gonna start off with one of the games of the week. We don't always do this, but we're doing it this week.
It's those Kansas City Chiefs, those Indiana Joneses right there in Kansas City. Now preseason Lion on this Vegas eded at Kansas City minus nine and a half.
They missed it by that much, three and a half. We're sitting juice three and a half. Looks like moving to forest money coming in.
We'll see. I didn't really see that coming. This money is a late shift. I don't really care for that. But Longhan, when you got on this game.
Yeah, this is funny. This says the game of the week, no doubt about it. Or one of the games of the week. And I don't feel I hate this game like on a handicap because I don't necessarily agree with the line move from three to three and a half and even maybe touching some fours. But I can.
Stumping it four and a half and immediately got bought down. I mean, there's still some threes out there.
But so so it's doing the tug of war. It's doing the tug of war thing, and I'm gonna kind of let that let the line decide which way I'm gonna go in this. So you know, if you've got lines that are locked in on a contest, if it's at three and it's locked in, I'm gonna lean to Kansas City at that number. Anything over three. Even though it feels like I'm walking into the most public dog trap of the week. This feels like just the worst
trap ever. But the fact that it's that it's bounced up and bounced down tells me that there's there's sharps and public on both sides here, So that makes you feel a little bit better.
There's definitely problem moneies on both sides of this game.
Yeah, So I guess long story short, I don't have a strong feeling either way. I'm gonna take that since you said the line was officially three and a half, that would put me on Indy in this game. But I will just say, you know, three weeks ago, you know, three weeks ago, case was thought like, Okay, they're doing it again. They're on their they're steamrolling, They're back to what they were. You think they can't get back to that again in the next couple of weeks and get right.
Back to that.
I've been thinking about this just because it's the game. I paid a lot attention this week, and I remember when Pachako went out, You're like, oh, he wouldn't play that well anyway, But dude, he is such a key part to that offense. Just the little things that he does in the passing game, the third down.
They missed that so fucking badly with.
Him because Kareem Hunt. He is what he is, man, He's four yards of cloud. He does he's great around the goal line. But that Pachako a piece of that offense. When he since because they were rolling and then all of a sudden, because he didn't start the year healthy right and they didn't start good, then he comes back, they're rolling, he goes back out and then immediately they
go right back to fucking bullshit. So it's like, I think they gets you're part of the offense, and his stats say it reminds me of remember when Brady always had that third down scatback, that Dion Lewis dude that nobody ever fucking talked about, but it was such a key element to that offense. It was that really when you needed that nut crunch and play, that was always Brady's little outlet, right.
It's always well, Mahomes has had that. Mahomes has had that period of times where he hasn't really had a great person, but there's always been there'd be like a guy that emerges, you know eventually, and just to that point, they've been wanting that to be the Branden Smith or I don't care, Brichard Smith whatever his first name is, the rookie out of SMU. They've been trying to like get him implemented more and more into that offense. And we saw he did at SMU lest year. He was
a very explosive player. But it's just not translating to the NFL, at least early on in his rookie career. Maybe there's something to that, you know that we know with the trade deadline or I'm assuming it's it's well known that they tried to get Brice Hall from the Jets. Jets were doing a fire sale. Obviously, Jets demanded a
third round pick, case offered a fourth. To me, when you're in this window, why just just give him the three and get the fucking I mean, Brice Hall is like, you know, I don't know if he's elite, but he's certainly a million times better than anything that they have very and he could be. Yeah. So like, I think that was a mistake by Kansas City by not pulling
that trigger and being stingy. I think. But but as we've learned, usually long term, you know, if you if you play close to the best, that's usually the best best way to go. But anyways, back on this game, you may be right. This just feels like Mahome's coming off of a loss. Go back, going back home. Man, I got a hard time and it's still Daniel Jones on the road against Patrick Mahomes. This one's this one is like I'm having a talk just like the Lions
having talking war. I'm having a tuging war inside my own brain, and I have not necessarily pulled the true heavily on either either way. Like I said, if it's at three in any kind of contest, I'm gonna lean towards Casey. Anything over three, I'm gonna play. I'mna play the Colts and hope the damn Jones doesn't turn into a pumpkin against against Mahomes and just see. But yeah, I can't wait to watch it.
Yeah. So I just had to make a decision of this game, and I made one. And I mean, I'm either gonna be really really right of this game or fucking really wrong. I like Indy here, and I like the under, and I.
Know it's not the spot public Dog and Casey coming on everything you said. But the reason why I like Indy here is really because I like the under so much. Both these quarterbacks do not grade out well.
Versus either one of these defenses.
Both these running games do not grade out well versus either one of these defenses.
So if you're telling me it's a lower scoring game, you know you're always gonna like the Dog there.
But Checko's questionable, by the way, so he might play.
I've got Indy overall winning twenty four to twenty three. I could easily see him being twenty three to twenty one, Kansas City twenty three, twenty Kansas City, you know, somewhere around in there. I just think it's gonna be one of those low twenty games, battling out Mahomes probably kicks the field goal to win it in the end, because I don't think.
He's gonna lose. I don't think he's gonna lose back to.
Back weeks against Bo Nicks and fucking Daniel Jones. And if he does do that, yeah, my god, Katie burned the fucking barn down because that shit is OVA in Kansas.
It's a little bit of a it's a little bit of one of those just say it out loud type games like yeah.
I mean I wouldn't, Pat, I would not. I'm not betting Indy on the money line, but when I get that, when I get that hook again, I.
Can see Kansas City winning by the three. It's generally what they do anyway. Now, another thing that I don't like here, it's not the best spot coming off the bye for Indy either, since twenty twenty one coming off of by away dogs eighteen and twenty eightts.
That's forty seven point four percent.
But they're only not covering by not even a whole point point eight of a point. That's an average line of four point six. That means they lose by three and a half points right here, I mean usually, So that's what we're looking at.
And and in these last two games, let's face that they lost to Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh and they beat the Falcons overseas barely in overtime, so you know, like they were a juggernaut to start the season, these.
Teams are fade or on the on the fade button at the same time.
So yeah, yeah, I don't like. I don't feel great about it.
I think, like I said, I'm either gonna hit both the under and Indy or I'm.
Gonna fucking lose both of them. So yeah, it's one. It's gonna be one of those. I don't I don't see me splitting the baby on this deal. All right, all right, let's move on. Oh, another one of the games. Those green Bay packets, those of those men I was o VI Kings. Now this one.
Vegas had a green Bay minus three and a half preseason this one's all the way up from six and a half. Uh as we sit here now, let me make double check that we're still there. Yep, six and a half. I mean it's flat as flat can be too this lot. It's like open five and a half. Six and a half has not moved another fucking inch the rest of the week. So Longhan, what do you got on this one?
Literally? Nothing? Like I mean, I've been dreading this game coming up the whole time. Like, I just I don't know what to do with either one of these teams right now. I really don't like. What do I do with Green Bay a team that's lost all their weapons and struggles to score but has a really good defense
but inconsistent at big numbers. Yeah, I don't. I don't hate that at all, But like last week, I don't know how Like I know that they didn't cover the seven and a half against the Giants, and did the closing line ever get to six and a half or did it? Did it? They held at seven? Okay? So so yeah, and they're not covering these big numbers, so you know, But then on the other side, what the fuck do I do with JJ McCarthy at this point? Like, I don't know what to do with them. I don't
know whatever supposed to go with that. As Buffalo returns a kickoff touchdown. So this is gonna be a shootout, a shootout in Houston. Who saw that one coming? So this one's a stake.
That's almost a halftime Jesus.
Yeah, this one's a stay away from me, forced lean. I'm gonna take the points and trust that the defense. Trust the defense from Minnesota can can you know, just play their ass off because they're gonna have to with J J. McCarthy. It's going to be a struggle over there. I like your under call because if this is a low scoring, close game and you're getting six and a half points, that's the best I got. I don't feel good about it, though.
Yeah, I don't have a side on this one either.
So I'm looking at hand we get this up here, fucking fucking fun the space or just so going through the numbers, it's a no call by the power ranking. It's a no call by the V two. Like I've got Green Bay Gady to.
Win twenty two to seventeen.
So by the BPG it says, you know, Minnesota slightly has value here.
I like the under. Good god, I've got.
The runners forty one, I think and a half sliding though, let's see, let's get a let's get an up to date total forty one and a half. Yeah, juice to the under a little bit here, so uh yeah, it's the only juices to the under. The reason why I like the under now, this is a decent matchup for Jordan Love.
He does gain a point with the BPG.
However, it's a terrible matchup for little JJ he loses two points. And it's also a bad matchup for the Packers running game. They lose half a point. It's a bad matchup for Minnesota's running game they lose a full point of the BPG. So again, you got two teams that struggle to score the ball, two pretty good defenses if you look at success rate.
If I can get this pull up, you've got the number nine and number ten success rate defense.
So you got two top ten defense going against two teams that struggle to score the ball in a game where you know, a smart coach on the Green Bay side, he he likes to play thing you talk about. Sean m Bay like playing things a little bit too close, you know, for cover.
This fucking guy green Bay does the same bullshit, Like if he even thinks.
That, hey, we don't really need to call any more of our good plays, he'll just shut shit down.
He don't give a fuck.
So, yeah, it's some. The difference is that Sean McVay has Stafford, Adams and Puka, and yeah, green Bay.
Is love love but even even like in the games were like I mean, remember the Cowboy again, They're blowing the the fuck out.
And they basically shut it down for two quarters and you know it cost him a win. I mean they got the tie.
But yeah, he's got something. I mean, they're the same tree.
They did the same thing. What was the game?
It was like a game two weeks before that where they were blowing somewhere the fuck out, shut it down and damn near got beat.
Like the team came all the way back to cover a big spread too against him, Like I don't know what but this, I mean it's six and a half.
It's divisional game. I mean, and again that's other two things that limit score. You got two teams that know each other pretty well inside and out, which is probably why these grades are so bad for the players that yeah, I don't have a.
Side on it. I do like the under lean the under forty one and a half for sure on this one. All right, let's move on to those Cincinnati. Uh, this son has dropped big time like a rock. Yeah.
It's funny too, because I was really leaning hard since he like the eight and a half. Now there was nines that had popped and those are all gone now, so good God, we're down to six even.
Five and a half at DraftKings. What the fuck is happening?
Would die of aids. No, Joe Burrow's gonna play is what's gonna happen?
Okay, all my numbers out the window, go ahead.
Long one?
What he got?
Yeah, I go ahead and get to get the danger zone ready, because this is definitely definitely gonna be one of the one of the danger zone game of the weeks. All right, get out of here, Kenny Scruggins, heever the fuck sings out a song, Get out of my fucking Handica, let me go. What's the official line six for five and a half?
Six?
I'll take I'll take one on the six and do a half unit on the money line just in case mister Burrow plays and doesn't suck balls because let's not forget he does need to learn something from old man Joe or old man yeah Joe Flacco out there and uh, play a little better. But obviously obviously the wide receiver, why am I blanking on the Jamar Chase is not gonna be in this game? He's suspended for spitting. I didn't know did you know he was that the Bengals
were spitters? Didn't know that there's spinners. But listening with T Higgins us the money line, alright, with T Higgins in that offense against this defense, who that's had somewhat of a tick up lately, but let's face they've played one of the worst schedules, maybe the worst street the street the schedule schedules in the league. So it's gonna look better than it than it normally would. Uh, and it's probably right. Success rate that's crazy, that's crazy because
they haven't better late lately. But good, I'm glad.
They were historically bad.
So like their success of how success rate works on defense, boys and girls, like you want the lowest number possible.
In other words, offense is least successful against.
You, So number one in the league that would be your Denver Broncos thirty eight percent success rate for the season since he's sitting in fifty, which means the offense is successful more than half the time against them on and this is grated by play, So every single play that the fucking golfense runs, the opposites run more than half a time they succeed against. Since these defense, no.
No, no, I was talking about New England's defense. Oh oh, sorry, I thought you about since no no, since he's I don't know how they've never had a tick up in there in years you were talking about.
But yeah, no, New England's But they're up to seven set. They're almost average at this point.
Okay, yeah, because they started bad. Remember they they were bad? Y Yeah, but you know, with Burrow coming back, let me just get to the handicap if Burrow doesn't play and it is Joe Flacco. Look, I still like that with the six do I wish it was the seven, that it was the eighth, that it was sure, but six is still a nice solid number at home, I guess a team that has played a week schedule, and let's face it, I've been saying this for about two
months now. To do do for a letdown, like you just you just they're not gonna play all seventy without a letdown. It's gonna happen at somebody at some point. Now I'm I'm not interested in trying to catch the the following knife of win. It's gonna happen. But like I said, I just do think there is value here built into the number at home with that kind of offense.
And if it is Joe Burrow, then you're you just get you get a few, at least one or two more free points because it probably goes down to four and a half, maybe even four at close or you're you're more than numbers guy, you can tell me what you think it'll go down too. If he is officially announced.
It was at nine, literally, and I almost took him at nine and now down to six. So we're looking at at the height of it nine sitting at six.
Now maybe four.
I mean they could, Yeah, they did definitely two more points that put points between him and flat.
Oh that's right.
Yeah, it's kind of what I was thinking. And and we won't know that until he actually does officially getting you know, announced, If he does, it's still very much up in the area. Now, last thing. We're in Hedg territory. Yeah for real, and Houston is going right down to the field before halftime. I'm going to get some more points, so.
Hurt again.
Yeah, nice little trend here that that solidified me wanting to be on Sincy. Teams with eight straight wins, which New England has. Somehow, they're they're fucking over under for the year.
Total, like almost almost in a row.
Oh my god, that fucking ray boy is good. He's good. No team's coming off eight straight wins. Next game on the road as a favorite, they are fourteen fourteen and thirty four ats, so you know it's and that actually that's that trend may have been over a touchdown, so I'd have to double check that because I may be falling out of the range now of that trend because that was an early week trend that I looked up pull it. So but regardless, I'm gonna be on Sincy
plus the six and double crossing my fingers. Number one, that Burrow plays. Number two, that Burrow plays more like the good Joe Flacco that we've seen over the last few weeks and less like the hold the ball, hold the ball, hold the ball, Joe Burrow that we've seen too much of lately.
Did you have a like a round, like a season range on that trend?
Like since anything, it's you'd most of them that I look back or go back to the two thousand and two cut, But I bet I don't. Sorry, twenty twelve is on a minute, but I don't know for sure on this one.
All right, I'll pull it in a second.
I mean, okay, I'll just give you the numbers if it ends.
Up being Flacco.
I mean I had since he covered this game anyway, the total sporty nine and a half. I've got New England winning twenty five to twenty four, So literally right on the number there.
Obviously it would have been since he graded to cover. Uh.
It's a decent matchup for Flacco gains a half a point, but fucking Drake May gain's two points against the shitty sincey defense. Shocker there, but the fucking run quality of the system, that's what really is gonna hold. Since he back minus one, they're gonna gain there, but Patriots only gain half a point because they can't run the fucking ball. So it's gonna be all Drake May in this one. If they're gonna want to cover this number, whatever number
settles at. The only thing that I don't like if it's gonna be if it's gonna be Burrow, you would rather Higgins be out than Chase, because that's his dude. And Higgins has become Flacco's dude because Flacco, you know, he just chunks shut up, and Higgins is the guy that just goes and gets it. But you know, Joe
and Chase, they have that connection. If it is Joe Burrow, I think it's a I think it's a much bigger disadvantage not having Jamar Chase in there then it would be if it was Flacco, just because that's not he doesn't really have that connection with him. And Jamar Chase is awesome and never help. It never helps to not even have him on the field. But I would rather Joe play. Chase isn't gonna play, and if it was Higgins, I gona play. I'd rather have the other Joe play. I'd have Burrough play.
But I don't know that you could ever.
Say you want Joe flackover Joe Burrow though in any situation, but first came back being rusty. I would love to be the dog catching the points either way if I was having Joe Burrow, because when else is Joe Burrow gonna be a fucking home dog by more than a field goal.
That's not gonna happen very off. And if.
If they go out there with him and beat the Patriots, then it ain't gonna happen again.
The rest of the fucking season.
So yeah, I remember the remember that game last last year New England. I think it was even in sincey Or would know it was that home when since he was in the week one the upset since fuck yeah.
Oh yeah, weird, I remember that bullshit.
Yeah, we're weird history with these two teams being close games and and little upsetting.
That was very upsetting.
What that was Houston with a touchdown so they're gonna have the lead at half to him.
We got a ball game, boys and girls. I'm glad I don't have nothing on that one. Ah. I did not have Buffalo most above either.
I got Houston on the gotta pick every game contest.
Yeah, well, I mean the number got so big, but then it crashed back down before kickoff, and I don't know what the fuck was going on.
It was locked at five and a half, on on the one that I'm in.
Uh, all right, let's move on to those Detroit Lions hosting those New York Football giants. Famous jamis most likely again here. I don't think that it matters.
I don't know, dude, We'll see. I'm hearing rumors that they might clear dart So and I think that's why you're seeing the I.
Mean, I think that's I think that's fucking criminal, criminal to do that to that kid, Like, who gives a fuck?
No, I mean honest, Like I mean, in the grand things, he doesn't need to play this close.
To a concussion for what purpose? You're going where your seasons are over? If you really believe in this kid, it would be fucking criminal to put him in this game.
Okay, I've got to say consistent though. I can't one week say called st J stroud of pussy for not playing two weeks.
After playoff fucking race to try to go win.
He needs to play football. If he's mad at now, well, then when when don't bring him back the rest of the year, then to say save him the next year? Then no, I'm.
Not saying that, but like, why would you rush him back for this.
If he's medically cleared, like Tom Brady says, you only get better playing football by playing football. Now, if he's like if it's if he he's got like, eh, he might, he's got ten percent more symptoms.
Drugged him out of the fucking blues.
Hint.
It's like, hey, do you know who we are? Get your ass?
Yeah?
Yeah.
If he if he's even got one sign of still some leading, yeah, send him out. But if he's one hundred percent medically cleared, get us that. Get out there and play fucking football now. Maybe don't stop running into linebackers, stop going airborne to trying to jump over or three people. That's maybe that would be a good idea for darting. But yeah, you gotta go play football, all right.
Well, it's ten points, well ten and a half then actually down to ten at Circle and the West Gate.
I know he's gonna they're gonna play him, they're gonna blame.
Him, but it's but it's at eleven at Bette Rivers and it's ten and a half pretty much everywhere else.
I don't know. It opened at eleven and a half, got bought down to ten and a half.
It's pretty much stuck there. We'll see which way it goes. But that's a lot of points, long horns, a lot of points.
What do you like here?
Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, I was wrong about the line move. We talked about it on the Monday Recap pod from last week in the NFL. I said that, don't be surprises. This line gets up to twelve, you know, twelve and a half by Gandy, But that was I didn't know that they were flirting with the Jackson Dart.
Possible trickling in on the line though, by the way.
So well, it's definitely gonna be me trickling in on that, because like you're you're out of your fucking mind if you think I'm not playing the Lions coming off of a loss. I mean this, this gets redundant, you know, And I actually love this redundancy of a lot of different teams that have these things that we can rely on, and we talk about them all the.
Time in the part exactly wins.
Eight straight wins. Yeah. So yeah, like once again through the list of Detroit trends, which is a seventy percent winner with Campbell and golf, so you ats, so you have to have a reason to go against them in these spots. Detroit eight and two against the spread after a game when they don't Oh this is I should say this for last. This is an obscure one, but I guess I'll start with it. Detroit are eight and two ATS in a game following a game where they
converted zero fourth downs. They are the fourth down Kings, are the ones that started. They're the ones that started this whole trend. They were over five last week on fourth down. Dan Campbell is going to be like just just chomping at the bit to go for go and make every fourth down. They're gonna throttle down against this shitty Detroit defense and they're just this is the perfect spot. Another one Detroit with Golf and Campbell eight to no ATS after a straight up loss with a line higher
than four. So like everything lines up. If a team they should be coming off a loss, they thought of them. They just they just throttle them so they don't overthink it. Take them. It's down to ten. If Jackson Dark can can beat me, can come in there and do some magic without neighbors, without skataboo, without anybody really hats off. I'll tip my hat. But the running game, the running for Detroit shouldn't a gate and slow down the pass rush.
That would normally give Jerry Goff some problems. But the pass rush only really works when it can take you if you can stop the running game and take take them out of that rhythm of passing and running. So it's all Detroit for me.
I don't have anything on this game. There's too many, too many movie parts, many questions. I have no idea who's playing quarterback? And if I had to bet at the I'm laying the point with Detroit like there's no sev yep, it's just what it was, kind of like when Tommy played, Like you either bet with tom or you just didn't bet.
You just don't go the other way. That's not smart.
All right, Let's move on to those Baltimore ravensch to those nude York jay.
E see yes, Jets, Jets.
Eleven and a half was what Vegas had it at it opened fourteen and a half.
We're down to thirteen and a half. So a longe, what do you got on this?
Not a lot on the Jets, Yeah, not a lot on this one. Reluctantly going to lean towards the Jets with all those points, only because remember the Baker situation where we had three games in a row where he didn't run and it affected him. They obviously were you know, couldn't score what they were what they wanted to. Well, Lamar's not running anymore. He's got two games in a row where he's barely ran. Last week only had ten
rushing yards. And look, and that's such a huge Like I know that there's been you know, he's he's become a much more effective passer, no doubt then then when he started his career. But a lot of that is because of his the threat of the run. If he's hurt and he's doing and he had he had a d NP again in practice this week, so like there's obviously something going on with him physically. He's still going
out there and playing. But if he can't have the threat of the run and he's strictly a hand the ball to Derrick Henry and pocket passer, that's not where you want Lamar Jackson to be. And so I just don't because I because the Jets are unbettable and and I and I can't just just ball. Yeah, I love that number. I love the Jets. No, No, I got to have a reason to go against Baltimore. And I've found a reason to go against Baltimore, so that that that gives me, you know, roll reluctantly, a reason to
punch in those Jets getting all the points. And then what we get to do is we have to watch the Jets suck and completely ruin the bat probably before the first half's even.
Over most last one, sir, Both power ruggings do great for the Jets.
The V two is also on the Jets. I fort to make that note total forty four and a half. I like the Jets.
I like the under here too, So I got Baltimore winning this game twenty three to nineteen. There's a flat matchup with both quarterbacks's flat matchup for Baltimore's running game, which is the most important thing always in Baltimore. Not a good matchup for the Jets running game minus half point there. Look, it's fields is gonna have to not fucking throw us out of this one and just let Lamar kind of keep us in it, hopefully a fumbler two. You know, it's that time of year Baltimore, with those
small hands, Lamar's start to become a factor. The ball gets slick, and look you're it's a hold your nose fucking.
Like you said. I mean, yes, Baltimore has to win every game. There's no doubt that motivation there.
But if they can win these games, which they've been able to against these shit bucket teams, which is all they played since he's been back without him running, I mean that's literally having your cake and eating it too, So I can I think that continues. The Jets have not shown any you know, real quit even after all the trades, so I think they continue to play football here. As long as we don't get shit housed early, I
think we can stick around in this one. Baltimore pulls it out by a score, maybe even two scores, as long as it's not two touchdowns in the end, we'll see. But another thing about this Baltimore offense too, they've not been impressive since he's been back.
Like they've been okay but not. They weren't. Remember when they started the year, they were scoring forty points a fucking game.
It was their defense that sucked balls and that's why they were losing. Lamar was literally the MVP of an zero to four team. Whatever it was like, they couldn't be stopped on offense, and they could stop nobody on defense.
It's kind of the offenses to back. They've been very working a lot of going offense and been great on defense. But we'll see how this one goes. Hopefully, to God, we can just hang around.
There went their four game win streak coming off the one in five is went against Chicago, went against Miami, win against Minnesota, win against Cleveland. So I guess Chicago CHICG was definitely chic was definitely the best team that they've played out of them.
And they have a negative point difference on the season.
Yeah, I don't know, don't don't fuck me justin Fields. I know you will. I know you will.
Though, I know we're gonna lose forty five to nothing. So since twenty twelve, go back to long Horns thing. Eight teams that won eight in a row and they're on the road. I didn't even specify a favorite. If you won eight in the row and your next game is away twelve and thirty one ats twenty seven point, it's.
Just ateen and twenty five. Straight up. They could they could lose this.
Now, let me let me do the favorite thing though, just because that's gonna change that for sure, and favored. Yeah, I see fifteen and thirteen straight up. Now nine and nineteen ats still thirty two, Still terrible spot acs, But anytime you're their favorite, you're gonna.
Win more than you lose in any scenario in the NFL.
But fifty three point six percent is as low as you're gonna fucking see for a favorite in the NFL.
Also, I mean NFL favorites they.
Win sixty percent of time straight up on average. So yeah, that's as low as it fucking gets. This is literally a coin flip situation. That's an average on a five and a half, and they're not covering about two point five points. I mean, they're they're winning these games about two point six points on average. So yeah, I love your Bengals games. I wish i'd pop that in at nine. I fucking had it too, and I just didn't do it. Let's see, I don't see if.
The line makes any difference. Let's just say line less than six.
Yeah, seven and four straight up, So you're gonna get bigger favorites gonna win sixty three point six percent of the time four and seven ahts, So you still have made it out of thirty percent ats and you're not coming by three point four points on an average line of seven point nine.
It's there's not a bad spot here.
It's gonna be a close game with what is what The history is.
Saying no doubt, no doubt about it, and the BBG says the same thing.
So I like it.
I like it.
I should have pulled the trigger on it.
All right, let's move on to those Chicago Bears hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in the most overrated bowl in the history of all fucking time. Pittsburgh and Chicago get together and spare us all to.
Death for three hours. But thank you Bears for winning us money last week.
I appreciate you, even though I take full credit for your win because that was in town minus two and a half for the Bears minus one fifteen across book across the four minus one fifteen.
So with I don't know, I don't know. Let's see which where the money's going.
Uh, the money's trickling, trickling on the Bears.
Oh, I don't know if we get the three on this one.
Really yeah, it's currently tuned out.
It's two and a half, literally two and a half minus one fifteen at every single book up there and at the exact juice, exact number, and it opened it two and a half. Money is just trickle trickle trickle on Chicago all week long. So nobody, nobody's really wanting to bet Pittsburgh, is what this tells me. Pittsburgh might be the right side.
My money doesn't fold it trickle trickle trickles in on Pittsburgh. I guess, I don't know. I hate this game so much. This feels like a destined close game for multiple reasons. Number one, either one of these teams can run away from anybody, so it's a perfect teaser game.
And almost exactly, quarterbacks can run away from the ladies.
Yeah thea I heard he likes to run into bath houses as just what I heard. I don't know, as that's the rumor. Yeah, I don't. I'm gonna be on a teaser for Pittsburgh for sure, so and I know that's not that doesn't do all for this handicap. But I will say this, Tomlin has lost four straight as a road dog. This is this Saint your daddy's, you know, Yen's, Yen's think you're gonna go down downtown and watch watch them Petsburgh Steelers and and that, and you're gonna get
a good, good road victory. No, that this is not the team for that. So I don't know. It's it's Rogers. He might play it's up in the air. They don't know with his wrists he fractured his non throwing risk. Well, I don't know, man Like. I mean, what's the difference between Rudolph right now and the way Rogers is playing?
I mean, it's one of them has a red nose. Sir, if you listen to the song, you would already know that.
Do you remember that song? Look, I'll just say this. The reason I love the teaser so much, and I'm at two and a half or above, I'm just gonna fucking I guess, bet Pittsburgh, I guess. I don't like it. But but Chicago's teams every year, we have these teams that are much much worse than their record. This feels like Chicago's turning into that team. Yes, they are for sure turning into that team. It seems like no matter. It doesn't seem like if they're down big in the game,
they're gonna find a way to make it close. If they're up big in the game, they're gonna find a way that it gets Like it's just they're just that team that is gonna the game's gonna be close no matter what. So they're a perfect teaser team, whether for or against. So that's just I guess I'm gonna be on Pittsburgh at the line that it is. I'm for sure gonna tease it up. Maybe you can tell me, am I making a mistake. I mean, is it just destined that Chicago is gonna win these close games? Is
it just the way it's gonna be? All you?
Pretty much?
But this this is literally the other than the overrated spare Mean to Death Bowl. This was the literal no call Bowl. I think I've had all year power ringings no call. Now the B two is on Pittsburgh, but the total is sitting at forty four and a half. I've got Chicago winning this game twenty four to twenty one, which we're half point away.
That's a no call.
Twenty four plus twenty one is forty five told forty four and a half half point away, that's a no call. I've got no fucking action any which way I turn in this game. Both quarterbacks should have success here, but neither running game should have much success here. So basically we're depending on two gay quarterbacks to score points by themselves. I don't know, I'm not sure it's the Gable. It is the Gable, it's the Gay Bowl that I'll have
no money. This is literally just the most no call, spare me to death, fucking game of the week for me. So I had nothing on this game. I found no angles at all.
I would love to go. I mean, look, you you do want to be on these teams.
And it's funny because you think, like, oh, the regression monsters come, and sometimes it does in season, but sometimes and there's always at least one team like this in the NFL every single year.
The regression monster never comes. Yeah, they just go to the playoffs and then they get beat by a better team.
That's when they come. See, it seems like it doesn't really ever happen in season.
It seems like it happens next season. Sure, we'll talk about next year preseason. They're gonna be my regression monster candidates for next year.
And everybody likes to well, you.
Doesn't mean anything that we've done it year after year after year, after year, and I always identify that team and almost always, I mean long, we're gonna test probably ninety five percent of the time when I say this is a regression monster team. This season, their season does not go well, just like it went the year before.
So well, there was two of them this year. There was two of them this year. It was Minnesota Kansas City, and they're both under performing.
Not going well.
Yeah, not going well. One of them just happens to have God at quarterbacks, so good for them.
We'll see if that saves them in the end. All right, let's move on.
Now, this actually is the game of the week. I'm so glad we saved it for now.
Oh so Tennessee Tights, baby postal Seattle Seahawks. Now you're laugh at this. What I'll let you guess.
What do you think Vegas had the preseason line on this game?
Seattle in Tennessee?
Well, since Seattle, I'm trying to remember preseason, Seattle's probably about an eight and a half preseason and Tennessee was probably I'm talking about season wins. Yeah, I mean, so that would be Seattle minus two for this game.
One and a half.
Oh that's pretty good.
Good chick, good. They missed it by a little bit.
Seattle is currently laying thirteen thirteen and a half.
The DraftKings still but money, money, money, money, money, money coming in on Tennessee. So it hit.
It opened at twelve and a half, it got up to fourteen for a minute.
Now it's coming back. Now we settled it at thirteen.
So let's call it thirteen Longhorn Seattle Road favorites against everybody's favorite team, the Tennessee Titans.
Yeah, I'm I can only be on Seattle here. I want no part of the free square Tennessee Titans. Now they are coming off too straight against the spread winds. But let's analyze those wins, shall Shall we analyze these against the spread winds?
No, let's not do that.
We remember we remember. Well, look, if they win, you cash your ticket. It doesn't matter how it happens. So if you if you've been right in Tennessee, they've been doing you well. So keep betting on Tennessee. Please do that. Get this number as low as possible possibly. Tennessee against La Chargers seventeen points directly off either return touchdowns or a turnover setup field goal. Last week, whatever the fuck
that was against Houston. I mean, if Houston was doing what they're doing, if they were doing what they did tonight with the doing a night against Buffalo last week, that that'll have been a blowout city. So Seattle Road Monsters five and one ats on the road. Just I'm sorry, just I this is a free square. It hasn't worked out last a couple of weeks. Long term the rest of this year. Just keep betting against Tennessee. You're gonna
be profitable, and I'll be on Seattle. Keep betting on Tennessee, though, give me under that thirteen. I'd like to get it at twelve and a half though. That's a sweet spot.
It might be coming. It might be coming now.
This one, believe it or not, Power rankings great at thirteen and a half was a no call. I actually had this game at Seattle minus fourteen, so I have gone away there. Seattle does have the V two. Look here's why I struggled with this one. Overall, A guess Seattle winning the game twenty eight to seventeen. That's right under eleven point so wouldn't quite come at thirty and a half.
So for grading.
Purpose, the DPG will be on Tennessee. But man, this total confuses the fuck out of me. Forty and a half.
I don't understand this. Because Seattle. You said they are road monsters, then they are.
They score forty points on fucking everybody, and on the road, especially and especially against shitty teams, which Tennessee surely is, and Tennessee's they've offense not great.
And their quarterback that's like a twenty six to twenty six to thirteen implied, Yeah, score something like that. Yeahty the only scored twenty six against Tennessee.
Then, I mean, I've got him scoring twenty eight, so it's pretty close. But I have Tennessee score in seventeen and I don't know how.
I don't know how either without without turnovers. I don't know no idea.
Because Ward loses a point and a half, they lose a half point in the running game, Donald gains a point, they gained half a point in the running game for Seattle, and this one just it made so much no sense that I couldn't make any sense out of it. But I don't cannot get over that forty and.
A half total.
I mean, I almost slammed it in on principle, just but I don't know, man, and the weather.
He was like, oh, what's the weather. No, I looked up the wells. It's got to be the weather.
No, it's gonna be fucking sixty five degrees, like a five percent chance of rain and no wind supposed to be no wind at all in that fucking stadium. And we're looking DraftKings at thirty nine and a half. This game is dipped under forty at this point. It opened at forty two and a half. The money continues to pour in on them. What don't I know?
This is what That's what pissed me off for this, And there's reason why I didn't bet the over.
Everything says over over over, but I'm missing something, so I'm staying away.
But man, that fucking pisses me off.
I do love and this is this has nothing to dow with a handicap, but I just because I watched rosters and and you know chess piece moves. They have basically the defensive The head coach for Seattle defensive mining coach came from Baltimore. He's he's basically brought. He's taken. Uh, I'm gonna worry. Their first round pick out of Southern wines. The humongous six three two and twenty five pound safety
hybrid linebacker. They've basically moved him to corner, but like a slot corner, so he's always in the box for obvious reasons. He runs at four to three, so he can run with anybody. You put him in there, and he's so long and strong, he's gonna be able to jamp. Like. But what that does is that allows for so much disguise with their defense. You can blitz a monster from
the splot position. You're he's in the box naturally already at that Like it's just a brilliant like a cow, like he's his he's his new Kyle Hamilton for Baltimore, evens he's turned him into that. Just just it's kind of like opened up that defensive backfield and you just love to see it.
So who was that they were playing? They had to text you it happened. It was a game.
We were opposite of Tadle's playing some ship box. They were at home.
Oh it was the game.
They won like a million to nothing, and then then the team started coming back at the end. Who was Arizona?
Arizona? They showed three times, he showed three.
Times he was gonna blitz because Jacoby kept changed his canes changed kdget and then the third time he still blitzed, and he nobody touched him, and he rocked Kobe. I'm like, he showed you three fucking times he was coming. You didn't if all this hand motioning, gesturing and all the conjecture, and you never said hey one time, Hey, maybe this guy look out for this guy.
No, you just said, ah, he's not really, he's just kidding. He's just kidding.
He's a fucking baller. And I and I made a mistake a minute or two ago. He was not their first round pick. He was a second round pick. They drafted Gray's Abel the first round pick, stud offensive lineman. So good job Seattle drafting. That's that's uh, that's two for two right there in the first two rounds. Oh, they drafted Tory Horton also, like I mean, Jesus bore out about him. Well done, Seattle, well done.
Yeah they doing, man. I like to see that they're on the com for sure.
All right, let's move on to my Las Vegas Raiders fucking socking what they're husting the Cleveland Browns and Shadra Sanders makes his NFL debut as a starter.
This game's sitting at four pretty much across the board.
Uh, it's actually pretty cheap three and a half though draft minus one twelve.
That's really cheap for the three and a half.
So if you like the Raiders, go shop over at DK but models at them at minus one fifteen, not as cheap, and still.
But four pretty much across the board at all the Shark books. So we'll call it for Longhorn. Who do you like hearing from? Of the Ravens and the Browns and the toilet Bowl.
Yeah, I'm gonna tell you. I'm gonna tell you right now that Longhorn is about to make a mistake on this game. I'm just telling you right now, like I know it. I can feel it coming. I know it's gonna happen. The narrative for against who was god awful last week. Trust me, I saw the game. He was god awful, almost worse than even the shitty numbers said he was.
But I made the worst passer rating literally of all time for sure.
And I will say this before I even get to the handicap. The last time a starting quarterback making his debut for Cleveland won the game. Do you know what year it was by Steve's not quite that long. Nineteen ninety five, so I was in high school. But the last time a starting I don't remember. It was a weird name that I'd never even heard, so it was even before I was like super super And he never probably won another game ever because I never heard of his name.
It's too late for Kozar for ninety five, so.
Yeah, and it's too early for Tim Couchs because that was like the name that came to my mind.
But couch was the managers.
Two thousand, Yeah, like ninety eight to two thousand something like that. All that said, The narrative right now is that they said all that to say that I'm gonna make a mistake and lean to the three and a half, four points whatever you can get Cleveland that and and I just think it's gone too far. Like Sanders is not Sanders is not an incompetent thrower of the ball. Now, he can play incompetent at quarterback at times, for sure, but this is still Vegas he's playing, right, This is
still a horrible, horrible fucking team. Like it's just gone too far from me, Like all of a sudden now the team that can barely score with Gino, can barely run the ball, can barely figure out how to get the ball to their best player. All of a sudden, now three and a half four point favorites against a against a Miles Garrett defense and defensive line that's dominant, and they're missing two starters on the offense line. They're down two more starters that already wasn't good. It's just
gone too far. It wasn't good. It's just gone too far. And they're forcing me, forcing me to make a goddamn mistake and take Sugar Sanders plus the points. And I'm picking them to win the game, because you know, I tend to not go against friends that are older, almost old as me, almost as old as me. So yeah, just I gotta take the points, man. And I know in Cleveland, Deviens is not good. Good on the road. They give up ten more points on the road than they do at home. And I know all these things.
I know all these things. I'm sorry, I've watched Vegas all year long. They are a train wreck.
I don't know about fucking you talking about disappointment.
I mean, Vegas is my preseason, an everybody's sleeping on these guys.
They're gonna win seven games. We're gonna go over that. So now I didn't put that out of the clients. That's over. I bet at my own personal money, I can burn that ticket up.
I mean, in my whole handicap was they've got an actual NFL quarterback. Now they've got a guy who just he'll keep them in games everything.
And a coach is not gonna make mistakes.
And it has just been a fucking abject disaster.
What about this game?
And the funny thing is, fucking Week one, I was so common to, Oh, they're gonna go beat New England.
New England sucks. And then.
And if you remember the speech after Pete Carroll was like, oh this ain't it. There's a lot more coming. Well, we've been watching a lot more.
And then he coming for three hundred yards like three touchdowns, and yeah, that was pretty much the height of his whole fucking season.
So this game, where are you at with this? Like, I mean, I feel like I'm walking into like a big sugar center's mistake. And I might be, but I can't. I just can't do it. Everybody's expecting him to suck. Literally everybody. Nobody's saying it, like what if he just plays semi average with that defense against I mean, just yeah, I guess too much.
I mean the total thirty six, for Christ's sake, that's just gross. Uh here, so full transparency.
I tour. I did toy.
Around with taking Vegas and my survivor pool because I have taken Vegas.
It's getting slim pays.
And well, you got the nineteen ninety five trend.
I do.
But the reason why I did it, the reason why I didn't is exactly what you just said, because I just knew as soon as I did, and all the public been shitting on this kid and shitting on this kid because everybody there's two camps.
When it comes to your Sanders.
It's the people that says it's racist somehow because they started a Mexican over a black guy I guess or Islanders, I don't know, and that he's awesome and they just got to give this king a chance to shine and be a king and.
Be legendary and blah blah blah blah blah.
There's that camp, which is a very big presence online, and there's the rest of us, like, no, he just sucks, and he doesn't pay attention to meetings, and he's a fuck off, and he's not a serious person and he doesn't take his craft serious or his job seriously, which is all very true. It was obviously evident he was not ready to play, and I was like, well, he
didn't get any first team snaps. Okay, neither is any other person that's ever came in a game to this situation like that, And he's the he's put it the worst q BE rating up literally all time. So I don't want to hear that bullshit either. But I just know, and these I've been we've been doing this so long. I know in the situation where you know the kids, it's gonna be not good for his career.
He's gonna get run out of the league. Blah blah, blah blah.
But there's gonna be a moment where all his supporters are gonna call us all haters and say, you just gotta.
Let this king shine. See what he could do.
They try to shoot on you, blah blah, And this might just be that.
You'll have and they'll have that one good game.
Like yes, and Vegas is bad enough that this could be that game for him. He can come out and all of a sudden, Cleveland put up thirty points and he fucking throws three touchdowns and he's doing this shit whatever his little move is.
I did like the call Hamblon that was so funny.
After he's sacked him for like the night time or whatever, Calhaven just goes. He goes league because there's things like to look at his farm and go like the legendary So it goes playing on the ground nice.
That was awesome.
Oh yeah, no, that's that's the reason why I can't because I just know, I just know my heart of hearts, I'm not gonna be shocked. He goes out there and balls out throse three touchdowns. They beat the ship out of the Raiders and Gino's bench and that's the end of it.
And it's and that's good because then we could fade the funk out of Schuur after that, and so like, yeah, it's a now you not now you're creeping into the way that that you know that my mind works on handicapin because pull back the curtain. If you don't know which most of you should be listened most, even is
the numbers guy. I'm the situational guy. And this just feels like the fucking situation where sur is gonna go out there and just be like and get all the people who support him all the fuel they need to tell us all how great he is. And this was all he needed, was one. It's just it's just the perfect scenario. We've seen this story before, and we'll see what years ago.
Five years ago, I would have called long horned idiot and I would have put Vegas in my survivor, like, you're all fucking crazy.
He's terrible. I told you he's terrible. He's been terrible.
Hold and then I would lose, and I'd be fucking mad because then I have to hear all the bullshit from all this SI.
But I've learned.
I've learned by because because that Tim Tebow would have went out there and just fucking fucking cluck.
Yes, I've learned by listening to long Horn in situation with handiccapped the way does it.
It's so funny. I kind of felt like you were.
Gonna go that way with it because I had that I had that feelings like no, no, I'm not gonna put because because I'm trying to like slide one under the table at the same time. You know, it'd be different if we've been playing like fucking uh the Rams, And I was like, yeah, of course the Rams must have fire picking.
Well, even a team Rams, even a team like I don't know, fucking Minnesota. If they were at Minnesota, Minnesota on a good team, they throttle his ass like like, yeah would but yeah, I'm bad enough.
They could lose them.
Yeah, they're bad enough.
They could lose him because fucking JJ could throw the game anything like Gino could literally throw four interceptions in this game. That door could have a crap game and they win, and everybody's gonna still tell me what a king he is and all this other ship.
So yeah, because did.
You say that fourth did you say that fourth quarter drive he had? Where he where he was three for five?
Of course, Yeah, this is the perfect game for me to get a double nut kicking if I put them a musturviv.
So I'm just not gonna do.
It nineteen ninety five though, homeboy, that's the odd.
The odds would greatly increase for me to win the overall prize.
I think you should. I think you should still think about that's a thirty year trend.
That man that makes them there. I can hear the ESPN in my head right now. No, b oh my god, three years has done this, and yet y'all said this man could play.
Y'all said, this man a fucking analysts on the ESPN.
We'll call all of.
Us, what's what's the black dude? What's the race Vader? Black dude? No mean, there's several of them.
Ryan Clark, Yes, right right.
He'll be like, look, this is uh, this is the start of a of a great career. And and all he needed was yeah, you're one hundred percent. No one's done this in thirty years. That proves that he was worth being the first round pick. Mal Chiver was right, he should have bl No, never mind, don't do it.
Yeah, I can't take that double nut kick.
And I just can't because I can just not turn the TV on and ignore all that ship. But it's harder to do that when you just lost a chance one hundred grand because he just cost.
Me one hundred grand.
Yeah, don't do that. But it won't be on one of my three TVs. That's musty TV.
Now it will. It will be the most watch game this entire week.
Oh my God, is that if.
There was a bet on that, I would guarantee that.
Is that a noon game?
Surely not?
Wait No, they're in Vegas? Yeah, called sweet sweet, So you got we we got Jags, Cardinals. No one's watching Browns Raiders.
Do you think that Browns Raiders beats Eagles Cowboys?
No? No, just because it's Cowboys. But I mean, you only got four games and two of them are ship and then you got Cowboys Eagles and shockingly, Browns Raiders. Must see TV clip that and let's let's watch that TV.
Yeah, they're there, they will Yeah, you're right, they won't beat the Eagles cows because nothing beats Eagles.
Cows, nothing beat.
Yeah, maybe this year it's still cows. Man, You sure there? Ain't that fucking he ain't that popular?
He's pretty goddamn popular.
I'll say that he's very He's the most polarizing player in the NFL, that's for sure, and that equals fucking ratings.
All right, let's move on from that ship ass game. Who cares uh? To those Arizona midgetless Cardinals.
Hosting ma Jacksonville Jaguars Now preseason Vegas said Arizona minus three on this one. I think I've had Arizona probably minus five at least, but not to be We're sitting at three points.
Let's call it two point seventy five across the board on but there's threes out there there that are expensive, and there's two and a half that are dead even money on the Cardinals. So you said three, right, Yeah, yeah, we'll graded at three.
Okay. This is the speak speaking of games that are sure to fuck me real hard like this, this is this is definitely one of them. Because I'm gonna be on Arizona and I don't know what let's let's let's call it a big dick pick, but I'm gonna save the sounder for for a later game that I feel like is more of a stronger feel for me. But let me get a unit on the plus three for Arizona and a half unit on them to win this
because I just Jacksonville. You can have them, you call them, You're a Jacksonville Jet, you can fucking have them, like this is a this is a jacquelin Hyde fucking team.
So now they're actually winning, I'm definitely blaming them.
And I and I want like Arizona's fucking me bad. All right, Arizona's fucking me bad already, because as soon as I as soon as I get the feel with Walter Nolan coming back to their defense, that this is their time to shine, they just start getting injuries and injuries and injuries on their on their other defensive players that we're not seeing the real thing here. And now we've got Marvin Harrison. I know Harrison's still out, but
I don't care. I don't care. You're at home against Goldielocks and Jacksonville, like you can, this is a game that again I don't I'm not gonna have the numbers to back it up, although I do have one good trend. I don't have the numbers to back to back this play up other than I've just seen this a million times before and Jacksonville. Jacksonville's coming off of a blowout win, and they're they're not a good team. They're just not
a good team. They're just not a very good football team. Now, I think Arizona's better what they've been shown in the last couple of weeks. I think we get more of that Dallas Cowboys type effort and game from Arizona. The one and the one trend that pushed me from liking Arizona to actually making them. You know, a game I'm putting on units on them on the podcast is and it's
is an obscure wild trend. So like, take this whipe rass with it, throw it in the garbage because it probably means nothing, but you know, when you're looking for things, you're looking for things. Teams coming off a huge blowout win, which Jacksonville did last week thirty five is to whatever that was against the Chargers, and the previous week they had a huge fourth quarter collapse and I don't remember
what the cutoff was. I think it was like a fourteen point collapse loss which they did against against eighteen. I know, actually I think it was more than that, but I think I think the cutoff what had to be like more than like fourteen points or more fourth quarter blowing of a lead, which they did against Houston two weeks prior. In that next third game, owens on the road, owens seven ats. What does that mean? Probably nothing, but it's enough for me to be like, Okay, I
like Arizona. Anyways, I'm getting to three. Now, let me bang them in, you know, to win this game a little bit and sprinkle some on there. So I just don't trust Jacksonville at all. I hate their quarterback. I know the coach hates his quarterback. So you know, just I don't know. Go go get this win, Arizona. You're better than your what's thever You're better than three and seven? Like they're not a good team, but they're just fucking better than three and seven.
Yeah, you have a full agree with me.
Powering is have Arizona SnO call on the B two forty seven and a half in the total. I've got Arizona winning this game twenty six to twenty three and probably up your units on the money line there. Uh now, it's not a great game for I forget his name in the home the quarterback. I just said it, fucking Obersett Yell.
Who's half half a point?
Uh my boy, TLS is a full point and both the running games should be flat.
So again, look, Jacksonville is not good enough to go on the road in lay points the fucking air. They're just not in this spot. Screams, screams, screams Arizona. Like you said, that's the win of the year for Jacksonville.
They're at home a playoff team comes calling and you blow their goddamn doors off.
It was never even a football game.
That's the kind that's the kind of win that lingers a little bit for a team that is it used to winning Number one and.
Number two is not good enough to have that wins. It's it's a total. It's like, it's different if you're a.
Really good team like the Rams or Seattle, you beat the ship out of somebody.
Yeah, you win, You're expected to win. You know you're gonna win.
Whatever they can put they can apartmentalize that, put it away, go back to work. And Jacksonville and them boys have been they've been fucking celebrating that shit all goddamn week. And now you're gonna go play a shitbird like Arizona. It just screams there and everything screams their zone. The numbers are with us with Arizona. You got a great trend there with Arizona. It's Arizona, Arizona, Arizona.
Two players that might two players that might play for Arizona that I'm begging, or at least one of them I'm begging to come back. Will Johnson, their cornerback first round pick out of uh maybe second pick. I can't remember out of Michigan.
Uh.
They need him back. He was bawling out. He was a huge part of their defensive success early love would love to get him back. He's questionable. Trey Bnson running back, They've had running back issues. They're done like their third and fourth people. If Trey Benson can come back, give them us little bit of a spark on offense, maybe they can mitigate some of their their loss without without Marma Harrison. So, I don't know, we'll see.
Yeah, well we both live in Arizona. Everything pluts at Arizona. So Jacksonville wins by twenty I'm sure.
Yeah, moren't like that?
Yeah, I like Cardinals. Give me Cardinals.
Right, let's move on to those new all At Saints Hustings, not so hot Lanta Falcons, No Mo Kirk coach, m not really.
I got nothing in this game. But if you do take it away, we're up to though money money, money, money coming. Just everybody's just can't wait to just turn their hard earned cash in and say give me the New Orleans Saints.
And I sucked shuck was this fucking line is all the way up to two? Two and a half, a draftings, two and a half at Bobada, all of this money, all this Cousins hate. It's almost like I feel like this might be the Cusin spot, just like it might be the saying it's felt like everybody's shitty on Kirk. Kirk can't play, Kirk wears khaki pants, Kirk's a dork. Yeah, we know, and we know he's not good. But we're laying too, and we're laying two and a half points with the worst football team in the NFL.
I know, I don't know, man.
I hear I hear you there, but I can't go with it because Cousins is zero and four in his last four games against against the Saints, no matter where he's been. Yeah, it's it's I don't know why, because it's not the Saints have been good for a while so and and Kirk's been on some, you know, fairly decent teams in his last four games. I'm sure sure there's some decent teams that Cousin was on. So some sort of like weird matchup thing here, that's the only
thing keeping me off. I don't even want to This is always this is always my my one of my deciding factors like do I feel comfortable teasing up Atlanta? And shockingly enough, I don't. I think no one can can win this game by double digits, and that is fucking wild as fun to say. So yeah, I got the same feeling, and that's why I won't be on really anything with this game. I'm staying the fun way
the fuck away, because you're right. The narrative is that, uh and and the money is proving it that it's all New Orleans and Cousins is cooked and he might be cooked.
He list totals going up too, so like it was thirty and a half, it's up to forty and a half. So people are lettings saying, hey, you know that shook last time. That's the other thing. The last time we saw I suck shuck, he threw for three hundred fucking yards in like three touchdowns.
So it's the perfect like storm of narratives.
What does beijon great out in this game?
I didn't grade it because like because like I didn't evenigrate it. So oh well, I do have this too, sorry, I do have two things in here. Uh okay, So off the bye.
Home favorites not a great spot. We've talked about this.
Twenty two twenty nine to two forty three percent spread now off the buy home favorites, and it's in the division since twenty twenty one, seven twelve and two thirty six point eight percent on an average on of six though, but they're not covering that by one point eight points. They are winning by four point four straight up. But again that's a six point favorite on average, So two
trends that definitely go to Atlanta's. Look, I'm not touching this game with a ten foot pole, all right, There's a zero chance I would ever bet New Orleans.
Look, I just this is PFF rankings. This is this is not like they're not doing like Calculus over there, This is not This is not the most advanced rankings, but I use them for for, you know, stuff like this. Checked out the rush defense rankings of all the thirty
two teams and they come in number eight. So if they can shut slow down the Atlanta running game, Drake London is out in the passing game, and you got Kirk Cousins who might be cooked, and even when he hasn't been, is zero to four against in his last four against his Saints. And that's why yeah, so like every like now, I don't feel comfortable betting the Saints because they suck.
Access rate for New Orleans on the season is eleven, so it's not terrible.
Yeah, so that's why all the money is coming in on.
The state nine.
By the way, so I would imagine that if New Orleans has any running backs left, they should have a decent day.
Well they don't. Yeah, the Marl's been shitty and their whole offensive running game has been shitty.
And let's see Atlanta's seventeenth success straight against dropback New Orleans twenty six.
So cousins can have a chance, he can have a chance to cook. If he's not.
Cooked, go out there and get you some cousins. You like that, you like that, go do it all.
Right, let's we want to do a game that people actually care about.
It's those delf cow Boy hosting those cop dail Philadelphia Eagles now preseason line on this Philly minus four and a half.
I believe it's where we opened that. Uh yeah, we're down to three.
It is just been cow cow cow cow, cal ca cal ca cow. And anytime that starts happening, Longhorn, you know which way, you know which way you should go?
What do you like here?
Wait a minute, did I miss something? It's it's you're saying I should be going against the Cowboys.
I mean, anytime everybody gets all cow crazy.
You're out of your fucking mind. Because this is the real big dick pick of the week.
Donna pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donkey dick.
Sire, fucking with my dick, nice dick. I'm gonna put my dick in. Yeah, Cowboys, gonna put it all the way in those Philadelphia Eagles. Now, is this three or three and a half? What do you grade me out here?
Three?
All right? Half? I know that sucks. It's just one of the Just like the Giants last week, I could have gotta win with Steven. I feel like this is gonna be right on that line. Let's just do one unit then at the plus three and a half unit on Cows to win, because I do think they're a live doll here. First of all, let's just start with the Philly defense versus the Cowboy offense. And we saw
them earlier in this earlier this year before plusling fifty. Okay, now, I know Dyln Carter was down in that game and huge factor. I'm not gonna like try to even downplay that's a huge, huge factor.
But like, seriously, as an interior defensive lineman, that dude has just become a fuck. I mean, I always always been good, but like now he doesn't just rush, he doesn't just stuffering.
I watched him bat down.
Like four fucking balls last game, Like he does everything up front.
He's turned into like Aaron Domerd.
Yeah, that's exactly what's turned out. I mean I remember seeing this this like interior defensive lineman don't really stand out, especially in college, and I remember him being a sophomore before he's even draft eligible at Georgia with first rounders all over that off that defensive line for Georgia, and I'm like, who the fuck is eighty eight? Who the fuck is that dude? Because he looks different than all the other guys, and you know, just this that's such
a weird position. And right now he's ranking at oh god, where is he ranked? Jordan Davis is actually in the top fifteen defensive tackles, and you know what, I don't see him. He might not have him. Okay, he's thirty two, so he's not having like a super graded PFF. But
that doesn't fucking matter, Like, like just watch. It's one of those ones where we just got to watch the games and and maybe he's being undisciplined and getting out of lanes and they're knocking him for that, and you know, maybe that'll help me in the in this game if he can get out of lanes, be undisciplined, like spinning on people, that's undisciplined. So uh, I wonder how much how many PFF points he lost for that spit. Maybe that's what's hurting his period. You can't spit and just
and just be highly rated on PFF. So no, Yeah, like the offense, the Cowboys offense, I think they can score like they just they're just that with with Pickens as their number one receiver, which he's turned into that he is a fucking monster and ceedee lamb. That's just a that's just an offense that can score on anybody. Now the other side, this is all about the additions
to the Cowboys defense. And it's the reason we talked last week why I couldn't I couldn't like have a strong feeling either way with a Vegas Cowboy game because I didn't know what these all these new faces would be like for the Cowboys. They all played, and they all played, well, four new either starters or contributors to that Cowboys defense. I know, fair, that's fair, But uh is, does the Philly offense scare you? Is just this the offensive scares you? So? Like, I think this is gonna
be a close game. They stink real bad that they had their chance last week to finally be like, Okay, we we can score. We just haven't been. You know, it's just, uh we we hold we're holding it in this week. And I'm drawn a black who did Philly plays last week? Damn it? It was a terrible defense, and it was a defense they should have scored on. I got it, you got it. Detroit bad defense, Yes they are. They're a fucking bad defense, and they should
and they scored some, but it was still like one touchdown. Yeah, it's pull and tee. It's pulling T. So never mind everything with them is pulling T.
Yeah.
Yeah, so I think it could be closed. I think Dak with the ball at the end of the game, he's got a shot with those two receivers. I don't know, I'm you're telling me, I'm wrong. So so why don't you take it away and tell me, tell me why my my big, big big pick is wrong.
Well, numbers wise, I can't really tell you that.
So now the Power does have Philly, but again that I didn't adjust the Cows up much for that Vegas win, so.
Maybe I'm wrong on that.
But I didn't adjust Philly at all for the Detroit win because they game played out exact how we thought it would, so that didn't know Jesph Philly small bump up for Dallas just because of the new personnel. They did beat the shit out of the Raiders on the road after the buye. It's not a good spot, so I did give him a small bump, but still not close enough to cover the spread and the butt.
The B two is a no call. I thought I was gonna be under in this game, to be honest with you.
But total sitting at forty seven and a half, I've got the Cowboys winning twenty four to twenty three. That's right on forty seven and a half points. So obviously the BBG likes Dallas.
But here's the bad point about this.
Is dak loses a point to the BBG. Jalen hurt is great, gains a point in a half. Now, again, we've only seen one week of that. Now I am waiting. I'm waiting the last four weeks as a running total heavier than the rest of the season, So I am taking account more of the more recent performances. But we've only seen one week to your point with the new defense.
So maybe in a couple weeks that catches up. And maybe that's where it misses here and the Cowboys, though, the running game is gonna be flat and it's not great to begin with, and Barkley should have a decent game here.
He gains a point of the BPG there. We saw the first game.
It kind of get away from Philly a little bit, but early on in that game, Barkley was getting whatever he wanted every time they handed in the ball.
Look, I can't if BD catches the ball or two they steal that one in Philly, and that's without Carter.
So they did they did win. They beat Philadelphia.
Oh they beat No, they lost that game.
Oh that's right, that's right.
But if CD catches that, you know, if he.
Gaves that ball, yeah, yeah, and that so I think they're pretty evenly matched.
Teams.
And again, I can't lay three points on the road against an offense that I know can score. They might struggle, they're going to struggle a little bit in this one. But again, twenty four points, that's what I got him projected score. When's the last time Philly scored twenty four fucking points.
They can't score the ball. They can score the.
Fucking ball, Ben a while.
I mean, if we look it, Weld, just look at it, Just look at it. Where's fucking we There we go, It's look at Phillies fucking schedule. Here, let's see they've scored sixteen ten. Oh that's right, they.
Scored thirty eight US of the Giants, and they scored twenty eight on the Vikings, whose defense have been slipping in seventeen seventeen. How the fuck did they scored? Oh the Rams game? That was that crazy punt return shit. I remember the Rams game.
Now, yeah, Block.
And the Bucks were picked six. I think that one.
They gotta have that shit to happen to get to get up the.
First the first matchup, they won twenty four to twenty at home. I've got Dallas won in twenty four to twenty three. Here sounds about right for a cow cover to me, especially if you can get that hook. Now, the money, let's see which way it's coming in. I think it was coming in on Philly. Uh, let's see where we're at here now. Nope, it's shifted big time to the cows. So money coming to the cows. I don't think we get back to that three and a half.
So I think I think everybody's starting to go your way along.
We gotta get back to those Wednesday night podcasts so I can get these half point hooks. This is fucking me.
I'm not a I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I just I hate the spot because historically, now at the wind we still got three and a half, and at bet Rivers and at bet us, so there's still a few three and a half's out there.
Some online books you can't grab.
They're very expensive, they're all minus one twenty. But I would spend that ten since to get that fucking hook if it was me. But all that being said, the numbers.
Agree with you.
I don't disagree with you, but this is one of those spot plays where historically, man, it's you just know when the cows getting all the love you know. It's it's like the Philly Game the first time wearing when everybody's like, all Philly's gonna kill us, They're gonna kill all the Cowboys fans were, you know, destruction death, We suck, blah blah blah.
Then they go in there almost pull it off.
Right, and then the whole narrative changes, Oh yeah, we might be pretty good by and then they go lose to whoever some ship burn.
Oh we fucking suck.
And then you're all the way back high and you go lose the Carolina Like that's just that's.
What the cas Yeah, they do, they do the roller coaster. But I don't, I don't know that. I means there are a lot of people picking them the Windows game, Like I don't.
I mean, obviously there's a lot of money coming.
In on on the spread perspective, yep, they don't have to win, say the money.
Let's see on the money line where the money is coming in at.
Dude, Oh my god, I think Josh Josh Allen's gonna get sacked like nineteen times in this game. Is fucking.
Is a split here?
So overall on the money line, eighty four percent of the money on the Eagles on the money line. But there's more money than tickets on the money line for the Cows.
So I like my spot. I like my spot.
I hate your spot. I like what the data says, and I liked that.
And I also like the fact that you know, you're still talking about dag Bursus Division and Dak still owns this fucking division, and in particular, I mean he doesn't lose the Eagles twice in the season, not generally.
So uh that all that I liked for you.
I just don't if they a were to fucking barely beat the Raiders or if they'd have lost the Raiders, I couldn't have handed you more money to put down on the fucking Cows this week. That's yeah, this really kind of hold me back.
Yeah, and the line would have been five and a half, you know.
Oh, no doubt.
All right, let's move on to those Los Angeles Rams, those tampaub fakes.
All right?
Preseason on this rams mind us two and.
A half, we were sitting at six and a half last I checked it earlier.
Yeah, six and that Oh and money still coming on the Rams. Seven just popped at Bovada Lodi. Uh. Seven at South point seven at bet us. So if you want six and a half and you.
Like the Rams, you better walk in and grab it now because it's going to seven.
Yeah, this and that's why. And we already played the sounder, so this this won will be another sounder. But this is the other danger zone game of the week, Like, how is this not a danger zone game? All the money going against Baker and the Bucks all like of this has to be Now am I getting six and a half or am I getting seven? Is the big question?
Uh, you know what, I'll give you seven on this one.
And I'm getting seven. I want to units on Bucks plus seven and then I'm only gonna sprinkle a quarter unit because I mean, the Rams are just it's hard to pick them to lose a game. But you gotta sprinkles dumbing. You gotta sprinkles dumbing. You just you just can't be a pussy.
If you're if you're and that's just a pro tip. If you're gonna bet a dog to win or to cover in this.
League, you just have to. We've learned. That's one of the things that we learned doing this that we didn't know before. Okay, quarter unit. Yeah, so yeah, like you just have to, Like, I mean, how do I not. They might get Bucky Irving back, they might get God went back, not for sure on either one of them. So again, we're recording this on Thursday. There's risk in
that putting this out there. But even with that said, Baker coming off, you know, a couple of losses, a couple against the spread losses, and against Buffalo with five minutes left, they had a one point lead. Five minutes left, they had a one point lead and lost by twelve. Like, so I have to feel like this line, now, I would stay, I would think this line's inflated, but obviously it wasn't because where it's open from and where it's at, it.
Just keeps going up, and it keeps going up, I know.
So just I don't know, man, Like maybe I'm walking into this and and and this is just but I can't. I can't close my eyes and see a rams blown out the bucks. I just I can't see that happening. I really can't. So, I mean, you tell them what the numbers say, but I'm gonna be on the plus deven for sure. And I think this is gonna be a close game. This is a Sunday night game. Correct, yep, Now I will say this and I didn't, right, Why did I not write down this trend? Because I know
I heard it. Baker at Night is awful. It is not his spot. I don't know what, No, I don't know. Maybe we need to like, let's let's earmark this and and uh, I don't do you have a way to do you have a way to do that? Or do I need to go back and get that for the next future. Pause? But for whatever reason, Baker in primetime is not a good spot. So that gives me worry, and maybe that's part of the reason, among other things, why the line is shooting up so much. But prove
him wrong. Baker go out there, keep his game close on a Sunday night and maybe steal it. Maybe still a win. I don't think I could pull it by I'll I'll find where I got that trend and definitely have it going forward because it wasn't nothing. It was kind of significant Baker at Night, which is under the radar and no one's talking about it. So let's let's let's all get that for next for going forward, and we'll keep an eye on that and we'll stay out of plays out in this game.
Okay, so power rings of this one has Tampa Bay vto win or not not write that down, it's on the Rams.
And then I kind of like the under here on this one.
I've got the Rams winning this twenty five to nineteen, which is right on the sixth grader at six and a half because that's the most prevalent number, so that's really a no call there, but it is under the forty nine and a half. The reason being is and this is probably why the money keeps coming on the Rams. Now, Stafford grains up pretty well against a points of the BPG. It's not a good matchup for Baker. This is a
full point. The RAMS Running Game grades out his flat, so it won't be a detriment the Bucks lose a half a point for the Running Game. It's just gonna be tough sledding for Tampa to score in this game. There's another reason why I like the under there. And you know, Tampa Bay's defense has been better than advertise, especially lately, and it's not a great matchup for the RAMS Running Game, which we all know limits that offense for what McVey likes to call, and Stafford grades out go,
but it's not like it's not his best grade. I kind of like the Rams to win a close game, stay within the six to seven points.
I like the under here. I haven't bet the under.
I'm trying to see which way that's going. But if I had to pick anything, I have more confidence a little bit in the total part of it, just because again I think both of these teams still send at forty nine and a half forty nine flat only in one spot, So there's been no movement on this line. I think that's what I was waiting on to begin with. But if you look at you know, the defense for both these teams, overall success rate is there great this
one through The Rams are eleventh, Tampa Bay's thirteenth. So I mean I got two better than average defenses, not a good matchup for one of the quarterbacks or the running game, So that's gonna make that better than average defense look keeping better.
I don't know. I just think I think it's gonna be lower scoring than what people are banking on. So and you know, if I had gotten to head, of course.
I'm gonna take Baker, and then especially if I get seven, I've got it. Grated at six, so small bit of value there now.
And Tampa Bay has the they've got the power rekings too, so power ranking and the BBG genuinely equals a bet for me. The only thing that scared me off of it is the money just continues to fucking pour in on those goddamn rams, which is why I have not put Tampa Bay in as of yet. Now against the seven and a half, maybe you might have talk.
That that'll be fucking wild if it goes from where it was all the way through seven through fucking seven.
Yeah, that'd be fucking wild.
I mean talking about the most expensive You go from six to six and a half to seven to seven and a half. That's some of the most expensive movement you'll.
Ever see in an NFL game without an injury anyway.
Which makes it a perfect teaser play.
Then perfect teaser play. Uh yeah, I like that a lot. All right, let's move on. It's but enough.
Up up boy got those San Francisco forty nineas thotens curl lot of panthers.
This one I didn't write anything Ephis pre.
Season line was, uh, sat mine of seven, guess what it's San fran Mintus seven so we're right where we thought were rapping a beat on this one. Uh total forty at forty eight and a half as went up, I know that. Uh let's see where're sitting at accurate total here?
Yeah, we're a it's forty nine and a half and at fifty at the westgates. So people expect the points long horn. We want a goddamn shootout in this one. Are we gonna get it? Well?
I don't know about a shootout, but I who the fuck knows what you get with these teams? And seriously, we've talked about you know the sweet spot to bet San Franz is coming off a loss. Well, it's kind of turning into the sweet spot to not bet them is coming off a win. If you look at their their win you know their win loss record. You bet them off a loss, you fade them off a win. So you got that favoring Carolina, but uh oh, we
got Carolina. They suck on the road, they suck. Coming off a game, they score thirty plus points two and thirteen ats or last fifteen coming off a game they score thirty plus points. It is not possible you have two unbettable teams here. You have to, but I have to pick somebody and Bryce Young. First of all, I watched that game last week against Atlanta. He threw he had a Carolina record, and listen to me when I tell you he was so fucking bad in that game.
He threw for almost five hundred yards and he goes.
Oh, oh my god, he was so fucking bad.
In that game, and somehow broke a Carolina record. I can't I can't explain it. Hit him in the head as goes sideways, hit him on the other side of the head. They go, I don't know what do you. I don't know what to do with me. I don't know what to do with this fucking this game. So I'd always default to give me free points in a game that I can't figure out what to do with. So give me the free points on a force lean. But I've got no interest in playing this game. Yep.
I got nothing here. I I got nothing, So I don't have any interest in this game at all whatsoever. Like you said, who knows what to do? These teams Carolina definitely trending towards beating my total, though mhmm, I would say so have they already beat it?
Six one?
More can they get that. Let's let's this is the last thing we'll do. Who the podcast we get in there?
At San fran seven point dogs not likely, Hosting the Rams, not likely. Oh, at the Saints after a bye.
Possibility, Yeah, there you go. Hosting the Bucks, we'll see. Hosting the Seahawks not likely. At the Bucks.
They've gotta lose one of those. So basically they're looking at I need New Orleans to beat them in Tampa to sweet them.
I mean it. Don't tear your ticket up, don't tell your ticket.
It's not impossible. I've seen, I've seen.
I think I think you're cooked. Though I think you're cooked.
I could be. But also they also could end up six and eleven. And I'm laughing my ass.
Off, by the way, and I wrote this down because I wanted to go ahead and mention it. Guess who's taking the lead from Abuca and Tampa Bay for the wide receiver rookie receiving yards. Ted McMillan, the guy that everybody poop poot on, said, alright, he's even a first runner. Yeah, that motherfucker was always badass. And I don't know where they'll finish. Abuka might have a resurgence of the second half. But tet ken Ball.
Don't look now, but his brother who plays for the Mighty Buffalo Bison in the MAC is I'm being dead serious. He's letting all of the back receivers and basically everything.
I did not know this.
Yeah, he's gonna be the dude.
Is he big? Is he a big guy? Also?
Yeah? I don't know if, but he looks bigger than everybody else in the Max. Wow?
Fuck? Is he playing for Buffalo?
Then? Probably because he's a retard.
He couldn't make any grades, the same reason why our boy here or Fanning ended up in fucking Western Michigan for bowling green.
For Christ's sake.
Yeah, by the way, you talk about a fucking fine, We were all over that kid, and that dude has been a monster months.
Great ship ass offense.
Ted went to that educational powerhouse known as Arizona just under a Gale Princeton and Harvard. So he's he clearly was smarter brother the West, sir, Yeah, for sure.
No, So the reason why he got an Arizona's brother didn't. He could funnel beer literally under a second, and that is a prerequisite to getting in to.
You of a I can promise you that Rookie of the year, Rookie of the year. All right, boys and goes. That was all then wents coming here tonight of man, all right, longhorning, it's time for everybody's favorite part of the show is some for those three I said, Max of the Week.
Oh you're gonna love this one because we are, by the way, free picks this year. What are they my free picks one in ten paid. Yeah, they're one ten. If you're a fucking idiot, they're ten and one. If they're doing it, they're the right way. And oh, I've got the perfect game picked to test this fade Longhorn theory. We're going with those khalive land Brown's plus is it three and a half?
Oh you four?
Okay plus four? Cleveland Brown's free. We're testing it here. We are testing this theory. I'm almost like, I'm almost like tempting you to force you to put in. That's exactly why I vict him. I want you to put them in to that fucking survivor.
Well, look when all the when all the black pundits are mad and on ESPN because his door's blown off, it's.
This guy's fucking fault. It's all Longhorn's fault.
Don't do it, though, I do not be responsible for one hundred thousand dollars being lost because of just please don't. I'm just what I'm just saying, but I'm saying, if it's there, all right.
So I had to call audible mind.
I have my free pick lined out, But I didn't realize that we already won that game tonight. So we were gonna go SFA laying thirty four and a half points, but oh my god, they closed at thirty seven.
And a half. It wouldn't matter what number you got. They won sixty two to fourteen. So we'll take that victory.
So we're gonna pivot, pivot. It's a Saint Francis and stone Hill. We're going under the forty, boys and girls under the forty. I saw a staff today Saint Francis. This is I think they're eleventh game of the season, long horn. They've scored eleven touchdowns all year long, so we'll keep that won the game. Pace going take the under Saint Francis stone Hill. And then one last thing here, this has brought to my attention. I did not realize it until It was brought my attention.
To one of our listeners.
They said, hey, you haven't given out a single fucking Pizza Minne parlor on the podcast all year. And I was like, well, you haven't missed anything because I haven't won a single one all year.
And they're like, well, maybe it's because you weren't giving them out.
I was like, maybe, you know what, mathematically, when you're talking about winning and losing, you can't do worse than absolute zero.
So fuck it, let's give it out.
We're gonna go.
With those are starting off with those Arkansas Razorbacks on the money line versus long Horns Longhorns.
Look, Texas, this is really the only one. I got a handicap for long drawn out one.
Anyway, Texas season died last week for all intensive purposes. In Georgia, Uh, they're gonna get up for one more game. It's when they go play the Aggies next week. They're gonna want to run their whole fucking existence and keep them out of the SEC championship game. They're not getting up for this game in Arkansas at all, or at home versus Arkansas at all, if you don't think so, They're only laying seven points. Arkansas is two and eight, by the way, two and eight in Texas Land seven points.
Now on the clip side of that, Arkansas is the best, and I feel very competent to say they're the best two and eight.
Team in the history of college football.
How long heard you and I were talking about point differentials and teams getting lucky and blah blah blah blah blah. At two and eight, Arkansas's point differential is a positive eighteen.
They won two games, and they have outscored their opponents on the year by eighteen points.
Seemen possible.
I mean, the way they lose games this year, I don't I don't know who the coach is gonna be next year. It's Patrino interim right now. I don't even know who the quarterbacks.
It doesn't matter, It does not matter whatever Arkansas's win total is next year. I'm just betting the over because the amount of luck that has went against them this year is unbelievable. And we've probably had Arkansas on our card for four weeks in a row now with the spread they won every time, because all they do is get big spreads against them and lose close games and they fuck.
It all they have snatched more defeats from the Jaws victory.
I can't even count. It's it's been unfucking real. Now, I'm sure we're gonna be going in for the game.
Any touchdown for this lag of the parlay, and they're gonna fumble in the five yard line in Texas a running back for a touchdown and.
We fucking lose. But we're gonna take our shot here. I guess the longhorned team that again couldn't give a shit about this game. It means it literally means nothing to them, So win or lose. If they beat the Aggis next week, they'll have an outsiders chance and maybe getting the playoffs, but probably not.
All they care about is ruining the Ague season at this point. Then we will fuck about those pick series from Arkansas.
And then on the other leg, South Alabama at home hosting Southern Miss again, another spot where so the miss couldn't give a shit about this game does not matter.
All they need to do is win next week and they are in the championship game for their conference.
And then my Florida Gators plus one fifty nine on the money line hosting those Tennessee volunteers long Horn. The last ten times Tennessee has went to Florida, how many times you think they've covered the spread?
Zero? Zero?
How many times you think they've won straight up?
Might go to zero?
Bob zero, Bob, that is correct, answers those Florida Gators roll at home to to see again. They could give a shit. Their season's dead. Florida is still playing for at least some pride.
So give me the Gators. Give me the one fifty nine package.
All that together seven plus seventeen seventy four seventeen and a half to one ten dollars wins you one hundred and seventy seven dollars and forty cents.
So pizza money parlay.
Maybe since I've fuck did the podcast, maybe we can actually win one.
We won three last year. Probably overshot our wide there a little bit. So we're getting the we're getting the name luck progression.
It's due.
I think it's due. I think it's due.
Let's go, bab let's do that pizza money parlay all right, long Horn, tell them they can fan.
I'll find all these I already got two wins of college, by the way, on the week so far. Finally, rest of college picks, NFL picks, fucking cks, prop picks, everything we got going on all fu I mean, I don't remember.
I don't want to say it out loud. It's been a long time. It's been a long time since FGH hasn't had a good fucking week. Boys and girls, tell them where they find all one more time.
Patreon dot com, slash bet underscore FGH. Go there and get that pizza mount of Parley that I'm sure bosnieves will pop up, along with a college slate, the NFL slate, and the player perrops. So people stop on the way or harder money on a guessing game and let the pros do that. Heavultting. So sign up tele aprint and joining on the fun of watching football, drinking beer, and never pay a bookie again.
Come on, my damn it, people never pay a bookie again. Steven TALLI take a suf