I won't make some Glorio.
Oh yeah, hello, Falmoryhome.
Podcast, lap Podcast, sound Clouds, Fringer, What Live Place with Live ex Instagram Live reported anyway, you can't afford it, man, We thank you, just gloriole for tuning in this week.
I'm rap' ride both steps. Here we go week number eleven in the NFL, and since the government is finally back open, I am going to petition them to subsidize my NFL record this season it is it is not doing as hot as I would like. Both he was, I have dug myself a hole so deep that even a couple of legals would be forced to say, that's a pretty good hole. Essay, Both suppose he was, Let's find some winners and give me out of here. Hit
that man. Whether you are here for the funny, it's a question for fun.
I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have funny. We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the classic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling symphony due to out.
Of your assholes. Are you are here for the money? Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil.
Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. Look at the fucking smile on my face.
Here to hear, baby, you have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question that has What a stupid question?
You ask a lot of stupid questions.
My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money? I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it.
I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator.
I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right, Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's patreon dot com, slash bet underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that you can bet football the right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got the TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's
most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting cow be choice of the week.
I still drunk.
I feel right, don.
Well, thank youy much, sairs search and not. I am drinking a Wrecked Sea Party by T F Brewing in Salt Out of Salt Lake City, three out of five stars. Very solid, hazy, pale l It's also very apropos that I'm drinking. It's not long harm because did you know then on this day in eighteen fifty one, Herman Melville published Moby Dick, which, by the way, was Longhorn's nickname in high school because he was always cruise in the lake hunting for those big old girls.
Boy.
And although this book is clearly a staple of American literature now, at the time it released it was a flaw, so much so that Herman had to give up on being a writer, moved back to New York in eighteen sixty five, and become a customs inspector for the next twenty fucking years. They eventually died in eighteen ninety one, and his book wouldn't get famous in the nineteen twenties. Oh that is sad. I can't help but wonder, long Horn if his book actually would have been famous in
his lifetime, if his name wasn't fucking herman. Maybe if he would have come up with a concept of the pen name, he'd been rich beyond his bottle of streams. Who knows, but rest of peace, Herman, God bless all those people in the world who are currently trying to catch your own personal white well in life or trying to plug a fatty without your friends catching either way, I just.
Think it's I was always thinking, it's it just a travesty. Whenever you have a floppy movie dick, that's just it's if your movie dick flops, it's never a good thing. So it's it's too bad for that guy.
Oh RF herman RIFP All right, boys, girls, to get the podcast now. I'll go over every wind coming in the NFL in the ads and not enough of course, of course, get you paid with those free picks like we always do, but right now we gotta get paid to do that. It's this week's sponsor. Oh it's Texas Telehealth dot Com. Cold and flu seasons coming, boys and girls.
A lot of sickness going around, a lot of sickness going round right now.
Feel it. All the aids, all the syphiliss everything you need, a doctor, you don't have to go and drive to a doctor. All you gotta do is get on texta teile dot com log on, get yourself an appointment. In thirty minutes a less, you're on the phone with doctor West. He's got you diagnosed. He's gonna knock that fucking shit right into your ding dang. Gets you feeling better in no time and you never have to leave your house
or work again. I go to Doctor West, My parents do too, and you should also because text tele dot com they treat everything the comic, cold flu, e EDVD and weight loss too. You get that osimpic baby for one hundred and ninteen dollars for thirty day supply, and your consultation is always free with accepted health insurance. So whether you got a peenis turned green, a little sumit size around your thighs, yellow shit come out. You know
who's longs than I was. Go to Texas Telehealth dot com right now and be sure to tell then that FG eight sent you. That is Texas Elie health dot com for all of your medical needs.
Please and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all agents.
Oh my god, Okay, it's happening.
God, what do you think is happening right now?
What's happening? Excuse me?
What is happening here? What is happening?
What the fuck just happened?
Oh, you know what's happening.
It's time for all those wins coming in the air to night. Member, all right, wasn't girls? It is time to get into all those wins in the air to nights. What's happening right now? Actually, this old Domini is whipping the ship on Detroit, ohd is becoming a little bit of a wagon. Boys and girls. Pay attention, Pay attention.
That was the minus nine and a half line.
Yeah, it's twenty six nothing, so I think they might cover.
I think they got that one, all right.
But we're here to talk to some NFL and to do that, Oh, we gotta start over in Espanol. Hey, mates, good a mates, I loi Espanol enis diz menistartis venis notchez dondez. Let's diple teca all that shit.
They got some pretty good holes over there, I say.
Yeah, they got some fucking lordie good lord. Uh. There might be some distractions going on with the players, but we got those Miami Dolphins traveling over there. Hosting those Washington fucking dead Skins. This line Miami two and a half heavily juiced across the board. It is heading towards three longhorns. So what do you got on this one?
Yeah? I think if I mean, I'm gonna be on Miami, grab this before he gets the three. Like I said, I agree, I think it's going to three for sure. The handicap for me on this one is, well, first of all, you got some conflicting things. I'll start with that. You got two on the road, which is never where you want to be, but that gets thrown out for me and this one because they're both on the road. It's a neutral site, so it's a little bit too is a favorite, is what I meant to say if
I didn't say that. So that's never where you want to be. But like I said, it's the neutral site. So it's kind of a real game for both of them. Not kind of it, it is, but this is all about them, and it's funny you call them. You're you're calling the dead Skins, which which that's not a new nick name. They've been dead Skins on and off for
quite a long time. But but it's very afropole now because they are literally one of the most hurt teams in the NFL, along with one of their best defensive players being suspended for punching a guy in twenty twenty five. We've got we've got people just out here punching people in the NFL.
It was a good punch, though, Oh.
I mean the fact that heal, I mean, that's salt brother, Like, you could have got it. You could have gone to jail for that. If that was in the street. I'm not even kidding. If that was on like this, a random guy like that, you're going to jail. Yeah, So like, uh he got a game, Uh fine, whatever. But Trey Amos there, their cornerback, I think second round maybe that maybe even the first round cornerback they drafted an ole miss. He's hurt. He was giving them something. I mean, this
is a dead defense. But at least at least you're getting something out of out of a good young player. Of course, McLaurin and you know, go down the list of Armstrong, the defensive end they got from the Cowboys. These are not great players, mcloran is. But but these other players are not great players. But when you're already a bad team and you're and you're this hurt and you're going to literally I know, I know well Daniels
when he's helping us, so yeah, yeah. So when I look at this game, I literally like it's wording me that the line stayed at two and a half and it hasn't ticked a three yet, because to me, this should be and it's gotta be just because the Dolphins are so bad and the narrative on them is so bad, which we've capitalized on this season because they're a bad team. But you got to pick your spots with them. And of course last week I had the the infamous call against the Buffalo Bills, and that's.
I think that's the thing, is like them winning that game to worry because you know it's all sharp when he comes in early and anyone stars, like we know better than the better on a shitty team coming off a big.
Win like that, Like that's right, right, And I think the market is saying that, and it's what that's why it's holding. But if it goes to three and even comes off of three on the other side, that's about as big as a movement at the market's going to signify. Going through the key number of three. We'll see if it actually does that. But the fact that we all know that the Dolphins are going nowhere this year, but the fact that they that they told the coach you're
not you're not fired. So that's a little bit for for a team that's not going where it has nothing to lose, and your offensive minded coach, you've got a little bit of freedom there, just kind of like fuck it, let's just let's just go out, go down swinging to us. Got to know that he has a chance to This might be his last time starting in Miami. Maybe not. Maybe he'll be back next year. Maybe the contract is too good, definitely is a long time. Well, we'll see,
but they maybe they'll play there again next year. But point being, they've got nothing to lose. They're playing a team that's dead and hurt and going the wrong way fast. The coach Dan Quinn is taking over defensive play calling duties. You know, I don't think it is, but that that one thing does worry me because sometimes you can get that one game bump of a like let me let me just ride the troops and fire it up. But
but I just don't think I don't see. I don't see the players to match up with the speed and the scheme that's gonna come at them this week. And what's the drive to try hard? I don't know. I don't see the drive to try hard. So I love Miami at the two and a half. Get them before it goes to three. If you like him, if you disagree completely, first of all, you can comment on the comments section tell me I'm an idiot, But then just
wait because it's going to three. So if he disagreed, there's literally no reason to grab the two and a half. Now just wait till it takes a three. Grab the reskin. Most evens will call you an idiot, and then he'll drop it. He'll put a drop on you, and then that's what we'll be at, because I'll be on Miami, all right.
Uh No, So I was literally was about to put this out at Patreon, and I don't know why I haven't.
I can't explain it because of this sour taste of my It's it's who wants to bet this bat of a team as a favorite?
It smells like something smells rotten. It smells like too much of a gift. Two and a half a bad team, yes, but versus a team that's even worse and not quitting because the Restlings haven't quit. They're just that bad. The they are just that bad. I mean they teams that quit don't punch people, right, You don't get suspended for punching somebody. And he wasn't the only punched of his throne, by the way, there were There could have been several
Reskins suspended last week. There was a bunch of like feisty shit in that game, even though.
They get in their ass with I wasn't aware that the Redskins were a bunch of punchers.
I did not know that there are punchers. Now. The other thing that I went ahead and graded this game against my better judgment, but I did. If I wouldn't have graded, I would already bet Miami. But I did. Look, two is gonna have a good game, and but they're running game. Believe it or not, it doesn't grade out that well. Mariota grades out, he gains a point, and
the Reskins running game grades a point against this Miami defense. However, here's the biggest thing to support your play, and I have still might end up in Miami, even though it stinks to high heaven. But I did pull this trends. It's twenty twenty one going into the by which both
these things are going to the buy. By the way, but if you're on a neutral site, which we've had eight games now since we've had these new we've had these neutral sites, and generally Yard going to the buy off these they're the favorite seven to one, straight up
seven and one ATS. So if you're going to the buy and you're the favorite eight seven point five and not only seven to one ATS long Horner average line of three point two, which right where we think this is gonna settle between three and three and a half, covering by three point eight points per game, you're winning this game by touchdown on average.
That's gotta be a just that I mean, that has to be a deciding factor. That's gotta be the thing that pushes you. Like we all we all love trends, but for me, trends are like a final decider, like it.
Has to make sense, it has to make sense, it has to be situational. Other side of that, if you're going into the buy, which the Redskins are on a neutral site, and you're the dog four and five ATS forty four point four percent. It's not dead on Amazon two point eight good, yes, currently right now losing the game by two point six points. So, I mean, you know, that's it's a little bit of kind of.
A glad to hear you agree with me on the Miami Dolphins. So it's quit being a pussy and just put them in your fucking premium picks.
I can definitely not bet the Redskins zero zero zero zero zero upon zero chance that I could bet three, so I will not.
Who calls it there? He can't call them the Redskins. It's it's the government's back open. You can't do that.
Was the Redskins. If you don't call them the Redskins, I'm taking the team away. I'm taking it away.
Trump Stadium, it's coming.
Yeah, he wants it. He wants it bad. All right, Let's move on to those hot Atlanta Falcons. They're hosting those Coralina Panthers. Woo woof. Coming off that loss, you talk about the spot that you generally do want to back a team. If you're ever going to back a team, it's gotta be the Panthers. In this one, I think we're sitting at three and a half currently yep. So it's been three a open, three and a half. It's been three and a half. Now money coming in on Carolina.
I'm expecting this line to get probably down to three closet of the game day long horn on this one.
Yeah, and I totally forgot to write down all of my danger zones and and all that stuff. But this is get get the stimes right because this is the big day. Because it's three and a half. That counts with the big day, So this is the big day. I'll slow down. This is the moby Dick, big dick, floppy movie dick pick of the week.
Oh we have my deal.
I'm gonna put my dick in. I feel that as much as I could. That's what he said. So listen the last time, the last time, he's like, I love Carolina so much in this and and and and by the way, give me two units on the three and a half and at one unit on the money line on this one. Oh god, we don't even start how much I like this game. I mean, first of all, there might be just a pure matchup issue here because the last time he's too taught.
You're saying, where, don't even start how much I know that marink up a little bit.
Listen, we've been doing this a long time. We've been doing this a long time. The hardest, ugliest ones are the ones that's where you gotta go hard. Yeah, I know it's gonna I can tell what kind of podcast is gonna be already from Trump thrum jump blowout. Last time these two teams played, Carolina went or Atlanta went to Carolina and just got fucking shit stomped.
It was.
It wasn't a thirty or nothing. I think so it ulous now that that happens in the NFL, and that might not signify anything at all. It's a one game sample, or it could signify one of these weird, just quirky matchup things where you just don't match up well with this team at all. And by the way, uh, Carolina is the better team. They're five and five overall, Atlanta's three and six. So it's not like, well, you know it's there, you know they're the better team and they
has had a bad game in in that situation. No, they're not the better team. They're three and six and they're not a good team. So there's that situation. The running game sports, the running game should absolutely chew up this Atlanta defense. So oh here and here's and here's another thing, and I'll throw it to you because I've got some more stuff, but I don't want to don a hog good time. Atlanta's coming off an overtime overseas game. Most obviously, you know how many times that's happened in
the NFL. Zero zero times have we had a team coming off of an overtime overseas game. So they're gonna be tired that they're coming right back and playing a team that that is gonna be physical and run. And the last thing, Caroline's defense has been good all year long. They had a hiccup last week. I'm talking that. I'm just gonna talk up to a hiccup against against a team they overlook in New Orleans. They should dominate the Ruins.
They had a bad game. This is a bounce back spot for that Carolina defense which has been good all year. So everything points to link to Carolina for me, and I love getting three and a half. And I'll sprinkle somewhat, sprinkle on the money on sprinkle, all.
Right, So I do have some stuff on this one. I want to pull this first though. Well, week going eleven. Yeah, we'll pull up from week seven, so let's talk about the last both just because I started digging in so since the BPG par Longhorn suggestion last year, which was a brilliant one, I started grading things on the sliding scale, adjusting the algorithm algorithms a bit. You know, we talked about Carolina being awesome on defense success, right or whatever.
The last four games are down to twelve. So this, this and another defense i'll talk about a little bit later, has been on the slide. So I'll start off with saying that as far as the better team dB A disagrees with you, Atlanta's eighteenth Carolina.
Is where are they at?
Oh yeah, twenty seventh? They stink.
That's a big that's a big difference.
Yeah. It's all offensively driven though, and that's why I can't get down with I mean the spot you're right, and if you look through the grades the matchup. If Penix loses a half a point, not good. Their running game flat, which is how Carolina be in the first place. They held Bejon to basically nothing. But if you look at Carolina, you know, I think I don't remember what penis imploded in that game, but Bridstoung loses a point through the BBG. They have a flat grade through their
running game as well. It grades out twenty four to seventeen Atlanta when about a touchdowns slightly in the under the forty two and a half power rank to say Atlanta the v twos on Carolina and the money though coming in on Carolina, that's gonna be Look, I'm wanting this game. I might go against you on this one. I'm not laying three and a half. This game has got to get to three to even me even think about it. It's probably not gonna be a play for me either way, but it's got to get to three
for medium chance. But just looking at how these two teams are going lately, you know, yes, Carolina's defense has been great all season beginning last month not as good. And Atlanta, you know, there's such I don't know what to do with Atlanta at this point. They're so Jacklin high and if they can run the ball well, which they're projected to run what they do, I should So
I got a question on that. So I should clarify when I say flat because some people say, well you said flat and they had you know, the same game or you know, a decent running game. When I say flat, it means they're grading out to how they run. So if you're a great running team, it means you're gonna have your normal game. If I say your plus points and your great run team, you have even better game. If I say minus should less than your average, that's
all team specific. So I guess I should have been more clear with that. Does go through explain it? But again, I don't expect either one of these quarterbacks to have a good game. I don't expect this game to be high scoring. The problem with me with Carolina at this point is we've seen the games that they win outside a few outliers that they've had some defensive touchdowns and things like that. I mean, if you can score twenty points, you're gonna beat this team pretty much every fucking Sunday.
So I think it does score twenty. I think Carolina has a hard time. It's boring twenty, but who knows. I'm probably probably staying away from here, but definitely, I.
Mean, look, it's it's Bryce Young. Is the way that Atlanta wins his game? If it's Bryce Young, where he's got his head stuck up his ass, and I always wonder with one of them when I'm watching Bryce young because you talk about jacquelin Hyde, he is the jaquelin Hyde.
Like.
Sometimes he comes out there and I think it's almost like are you on drugs or like are you medicated? Like what is wrong with you? You're like a walking zombie and I don't I don't understand it. And then the next game you'll just see him with the same players like there were there was nobody missing last week, the same players that they had. It's like there's nothing there. There's no emotion, there's no there's there's just.
That vaunted New Orleans. Don't forget that.
Yeah, well, I mean yeah, there was no reason for that to happen. And it's almost like he got he got it sapped by the like the one floor with the cuckoo's nestling you got, you got your your brain's acted like are you even here right now? Wake the fuck up? Bryce Younger in an NFL game, So if they lose, if I'm wrong, it will definitely be one of those Bryce young what the fuck games like, which can definitely happen, but just everything else.
What's wild to me about the brush Young thing is and I heard this on a podcast this week, like the players like love this dude, and you just talked about it on a Monday, like he has the worst body language, yeah, which is undeniable. It's if you what he has the worst body Like how.
Could you love this du Listen? We're coming We're we are coming out of the era of the small quarterback, thank God, Like like if the Bryce Young thing that it'll last for for a little while and they're having a decent season five to five, but the midget quarterback in Arizona, the all all these quarterbacks that are small, they're finally starting that that phase is starting to go.
With Russell Wilson with the collapse of his career, that's that's more to age than anything else, because he defied those odds for a long time. But we're coming out of it because at least at least some banker is you know, six one, like like he's not like a you know, tiny guy like Bryce Young is five ten, five eleven and like one hundred and ninety pounds, like he's just these quarterbacks are too small to plainfl and think, God,
we're finally coming out of that era. But I hope it doesn't start this week, because I mean, good Bryce Young this.
Week God's feed sir. All right, let's move on to those men of hold on By Kings hosting those Chicago Bens now pre seasonOn on this was Minnesota manas two and a half. We're currently sitting at Minnesota minus two and a half. Let's see if there's been any movement. Nope, sorry, two and a half juiced. We've got some threes heavily, heavily juice of threes across the board, threes on the even side. So this three that it was what it opened is moving to two and a half pretty quickly.
So I and obviously think this is gonna finish at two and a half, if not less.
What's the official number now still three.
And it's like two point seven five. I mean it's you get three at Westgate, you get three at DraftKings, you get three at bet online. Circa just moved to two and a half minus one fifteen. That's in the last hour because they were three earlier. Get three on South Point, get three at win, get three at bet us. There's threes everywhere, but all the jews is coming on the threes on the other side of the plus three
and where it is two and a half. Now circle moved to two and a half minus one fifteen, so you know, two point seven five. If you're one of great over the bet, you can definitely get the three. You can definitely get the two and a half the which side you like here?
Yeah, And the last time these two teams played was obviously that was the week one which JJ McCarthy played that game, and Chicago kind of dominated most of that game.
And it was like a all except the last eight minutes.
Yes, except for the last eight minutes, so that this just feels like a Chicago spot to me. I want to be in Chicago. I want the plus three. If it's down to two and a half, it'll definitely be a tease up situation for me because because I think I think, even, yeah, that's good. I'm not making any kind of like sound or anything like that, although I
do think Chicago is gonna win his game. But this is just a fascinating I'm fascinated with this quarterback situation game in this situation because Taylo seems to at least lately, do really well at end of games when he's off script and and JJ seems to only do well when he's on script, and so really, I don't I want to be in Chicago, but I don't really have a great feel in this one. And I didn't find anything that like blew me away on the matchups or that,
you know, digging deep into the trends and things. So I hope you've got something something better to give me at least at least a good feeling about being on Chicago, because I'm definitely gonna be on Chicago, but I need more reasons to do it other than what I could find on my side. So what do you got over there?
Oh, I got the power range grade down in Chicago. VT's on Chicago. I've got Chicago winning this game of twenty two to nineteen. That's to the NDA that kid at forty eight and a half. Now J. J. McCarthy does grade out plus point and a half versus defense, but Sugar bridges gains of point two and both running
games should be around their normal success rate. However, as I dug more into this game, what I did find is and this is one of the defense I was talking about earlier, not the one, but one of them. If you look since week seven on. We always think about Minnesota, great defense, great defensive coach, blah blah blah blah blah. However, if you look since week seven ons last month, they're number seventeenth in success rate. Chicago's defense has been shit all year. Guess who's number eighteenth of
success rate in the last four weeks. That would be Chicago. Their defense is getting better, Minnesota's getting worse. Chicago's offense is trending up. Minnesot's offense obviously isn't trending anywhere. So if you look overall, man, I think we're just I think we've got one team that's let's look at the d w o A ratings and this is all season long, so and I'm looking them up live, so I'd have no idea Minnesota sitting at twenty two. Chicago they can't
be much. Yeah, twenty fifth, so it's eleven minus eleven point eight, thirteen point eight. So maybe it's a fair line at two and a half. But I think that Chicago's just a team on the trend that's going up, and so it's a team trend going down. I think the Bears are going to win this game. And last reason why I like the Bears. I'm gonna be in fucking Chicago. Of course the Bears are gonna cover for me while I'm in Chicago, do you?
Oh? Yeah, go Bears. That sounds like the curse of both Davis to me. I don't know, that's that's what that sounds like.
I'm a scene baby when I show up. It's fucking just good things happen. Let's go all right, let's move on to those perks Steelers there, they're uh somehow still five and a half point favorites. Long hoar, you have to make sense of this before me five and a half point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. So, I mean, flight, I was not dead, right, I know, I was not playing. But the money's coming in on Pittsburgh like it's five and a half. A little bit juice, it's six of Heritage,
six of Bovada. I mean, if this keeps climbing, if this keeps climbing, I don't know. I don't know how you don't. It opened at six and a half, down to five and a half, obviously, that's kind of where the market landed at the Steelers at five and a half, which again confuses me, I don't know, what do you got.
I know, I'm just kind of because I didn't do any of my danger zones or soundars. I'm kind of debating. I'm scrolling through my list of picks. I think I'm gonna save the danger zone. Could not do it here, although this is this was they This was definitely impossible danger zone spot.
And this total forty nine and a half. I mean, I know Loan's defensive state, but fifty points, Well.
They both suck. Yeah, they both sucked. So I mean, like, so I'm gonna be yeah, and I'm gonna be on Cincinnati. And this is this actually is a very similar handicap to the to the Carolina Atlanta ones, Like why would I not take the team that already beat them with this quarterback that owns this this particular Pittsburgh Steelers team, Flacco's nine to four at s against Pittsburgh as a dog.
This is just his sweet spine. And I think we mentioned this this this trend or I mentioned this trend last time that the last time they played, when he beat Pittsburgh.
So I've got no reason was it that when heland.
Right, mate? No? I think because you know it was his first game in Cinci. Remember is that because Toman was pissed off that that that they Cleveland trade him to Sincy, Like I can't believe. And everybody's like, why is he saying that? That sounds a little thought, But then he's not a dummy. He knew that Flacco is a baller. And they've got Jamar Chase and and t Higgins out there, and what's changed, What is changed to
make this going in any other direction? And on top of the fact Pittsfurdh sucks as big favorites, this is not their spot at all. You don't ever want have been on Pittsburgh when they're big favorites. So I have no reason as I'm scanning my notes to to not take the free points here. And like I said I would, there's there's one thing, there's one thing that that's gonna kind of keep me off of a danger zone or big day pick or sound or anything like that. Sincy.
And this is all about the coach who I hate for Cincy. I think I think he's a terrible coach and I can't wait till they fire him. Actually I don't want to.
We've soured on it, like at first we thought.
He's my day ball. He's my dayball to you like like you like you slowly came around to my I hate Zach Taylor, fade him for a long time. And I think I'm finally winning over on that, just like you want me over in the day ball thing. Uh sincy one and four ats coming off of a buy and playing a division opponent, like good coaches coming home buys, that's their sweet spot, like and he's just not good. So especially in division when you should know your opponent
like like this is. These are opponents you played twice a year at least. So that's the only thing came me off of something like that. But yeah, I've got no reason to not take the points. And I hope it gets to six. I hope it goes Everybody keep betting Pittsburgh. I just just load up on Pittsburgh because I'm gonna take all that other side and eat it up. Yom Yom young.
Yeah, I mean Vicky Islama that I'm gonna have to go since the so power ring's got great since he at five and a half, me twos on the Pittsburgh for and a half. Look, both offenses, both quarterbacks gain a point, both running back, both runn games game of point and I'm still at forty eight points. It's twenty five to twenty three since he went in this game where graded, I don't know how we get the forty nine and a half. It's gonna have to be strip sack fumble, I mean, which is really I think the
only way Pittsburgh covered. So if it goes over, we're probably cooked on the sun.
Well think it does when it's when it's fourteen to seven in the first quarter, I don't think you're gonna be saying that like that, Like what was the last.
One on the one?
Was the last score of this one?
Why you look that up? I will talk about a couple of trends here, go ahead. Well, it's stopping from slamming since he you just mentioned it off the by now this isn't since the specific this is any team since twenty twenty one. Off the buy and you're away Dogs eighteen to nineteen, ATS, ATS margins negative zero point three. That's an on line of four point six though, so basically losing by five points a game fifteen to twenty
one straight up. Uh, but that's a really good percentage though for Dogs covering forty or dogs winning forty one percent. That's not bad. It's I mean, it's not above.
Winning out right, winning out right. Oh okay, yeah, that's pretty that.
It's not above average, but you know it's pretty good. But if you're the way dog, and it is in Divisions twenty twenty one, four and two ats by point or zero point two, so barely covering the margin. But that's in a line of five point eight, which is exactly where we're sitting. So you're losing yours three and three straight up, losing by five point seven points per game. Yeah,
I think that. But here here's the other thing. When I said it was gonna go under, and this again, this is just trends, and take it for what it's worth. On the big trend twelve twenty four and one to the under thirty three percent of sixty six point seven percent of the time it goes under. On the division thing one five to them by seven and a half points, an average shoulder of forty four point two, we're sitting at forty nine and a half. I mean, there's just
no way. I mean, the under is probably where I'm looking at this one again, if the other hits. I don't see any way, since he doesn't cover if it goes over. That's because JJ Watt had forty five fucking strip sacks and Joe Fando died of fucking gone rheoil.
I mean, that's that's interesting because I would look kinda kind of the other way, like like since he can only win if they outscore Pittsburgh, and that's exactly what they did last time when it was thirty three to thirty one.
Like I don't, I don't, but I know, and that's why the numbers so high. But all through the grades and how the numbers great out, there's gonna have to be something happened to get it to the And again this is these two teams. But these two defenses, as shit as they are greater against each other than these offenses, still doesn't produce that kind of point. So I'm not saying that it's a lot, but I like sency enough that I think that. I mean, and we've seen Pittsburgh's
offense now and everybody's seen it. It is so Aaron Rodgers stagnant. It's three tight ends, it's fucking seven yard catches at the bass, like there's no explosiveness to this offense at all. The only thing scares me about the under is that, yeah, fucking Jamar Chase and t Higgins is just they could just be dropping bombs out there against this fucking, shitty, fucking Pittsburgh secondary. Of course they could.
You know, Bengals games are seven and two to the over this year. They're just they're just a smash over team.
You don't want to bet the under against them for sure, which kind of makes me want about the under even more.
Because I'm and and uh, let's see what was Joe Joe Flacco's first game was three weeks ago against Pittsburgh and they're they're three and oh to the over since Joe Flacco has been in there, so he's gonna score his points. They can't stop anybody. If you're a brave man, if you take the under and up Bengals game.
Let's just say that this kind of makes me want to take it even more. Kind of makes you want to say, let's see which way just for ships and gigs? Uh, forty nine and a half? Was it fifty? So the market agrees the market has been it down already because it's forty nine A lot of places across the board. So it's coming down. It's kinda gone down.
God bless you people.
God damn if I could have got a fifty over great.
There's no between fifty and and that's fifty one is the number you want if you're going under.
Yeah, what watch it? Land fifty and I lose my money and I fucking can on Monday and just the long er, what a fucking idiot is There's no difference. All right, Let's move on to those New York football giants. Famous Jamis is back. I'm so excited for this game they're hosting. I can't wait. I can't wait to see the show.
Baby.
I will have no I will not have a dime on this game. And anybody that took the Packers and your survivor or if you're thinking about it, you talking about Brave, Because here's the thing. You're either gonna get three interceptions from Jamis or he's gonna drop four touchdowns of your ass. Good luck, good luck either way. I don't want any part of this game, Longhan, What do you got?
Yeah, I'm gonna, I mean, I'm forced to use this as another another with without the without the sounder of course, but like this has to be another big Dick pick because like Jamos is either gonna lose this game by thirty or he's gonna win. Just so like I have to. And if it's seven and a half, give me give me a unit on the seven and a half and a half unit seven halfs Oh, they're all gone.
Literally literally there's seven though, right seven across the board.
Okay, I'll take the seven for a unit and then give me give me the money line for a half unit because I mean it. First of all, green Bay hasn't covered. They haven't covered as a favorite of seven or more points all year long. They're just they're they're not doing it. So maybe the Giants that well, likely the Giants don't win the game for sure.
But that's stupid number. What says plusy sixty seid, I want to give you the plus t seventy five that doesn't make sense.
I'll take, But like I said, yeah, green Bay doesn't cover these big spreads. They haven't done all year and theyve been losing. They lost to Carolina is a huge number. They lost to Cleveland as a huge number. Like in the Dallas game, they they tied, So like how does that work out? Actually, if you're on that's just a push. I guess if you're on the money, lass just if you cut the money, Okay, but yeah, so so the
fact they don't cover, they can't stop. They can't stop the run or excuse me, New York can't stop the run. So that's that's the path to victory for Green Bay. So take the ball out of Love's hand. It's not working, you know. I know he's overall grading decent for the year, but a lot of that was in the beginning of the year. They're down Tucker Craft, they're down Jalen Reed,
they're down Romeo Dobbs. Same story with the Packers every year they Matthew Golden, can can you wake me up the next time you hear the number one draft pick out of Texas Matthew Golden's name, Like, like, somebody remind me the next time he makes a play in the NFL, Like they're just the curse franchise with wide receivers. Stop doing it. And when we were in Green Bay for the draft, when he took the receiver out of Texas, I said, I said, why, Like this is just that's
not that doesn't Why do you do that. But they he's got no one to throw to and he's just running out of people to throw too. And I think, I think the jamis thing. It's gonna be a fun ride, Like I don't, we don't know what's gonna happen. He might throw a pick six or two. But it's musty TV,
I can tell you that. And I can't wait to watch it, and I want, I literally want to have action on this game just so I can put it on one of my TVs and watch either the train wreck or the or the fucking amazing win for the Giants. So what do you got?
Well, goodness for your giants. Bread gets to run. But since week seven, they weren't dead last. Now they're thirty first, so let's go. We moved on to the spot.
I mean, when you're last, you got nowhere to go but up.
Nowhere to go up and the hey man, they made enough spot, So good job on that. I got nothing of this game. I can't wait to watch this game. God bless anybody that's balls enough to take anybody, or if you hoard yourself into We took Green Bay, which there's gonna be a lot of people on them. I hope to God, I hope the god Longhorn hits this fucking big tacking the Giants fucking win, because that's gonna
make survivor easier. All Right, speaking of another game that gotten a little bit away from us here, Uh so much quarterback news. I don't know what happened or whatever. I guess maybe bumped his head again. But it's those Tennessee Titans hosting those Houston I said, Houston with Stroud. Stroud somehow magically out again.
This isn't that bullshit? Like like these quarterbacks that are that are missing games for head injuries and concussions, like I get it with Jackson Dart in which we didn't even talk about when we were just in the Giants. But like, by the way, Jackson Dart, you got major issues, like you gotta clean this stuff. That's his third concussion this year? Did you know that? Both Sevis? That's his third. Now,
that's his third concussion of the year. No, he's been not like I mean, he remember he got remember the blue tint. Okay, it's his third. Yeah, it's his third. I've got to go get checked out for a concussion. Which if you're getting checked out, you got ding and it's just to the point where he plays too reckless. So watch that. Going forward with with Jackson's art, he's not a very smart guy when he's running the ball.
That one ever, the first one.
You mean, when you do TikTok dances, when you celebrate and you look like a frat boy, that it doesn't you don't think that this is you know, this isn't gonna be good. I don't know. It's sure, it's fun though, but yeah it with Stroud like it's like not we we watched the the the Dallas Cowboys documentary with the Jerry Jones thing and then the nineties Cowboys. Hello Troy Yeikman. He talked about it. He played a whole game where he didn't remember it. After he played once he got
hit in the knee with the with the helmet. He literally the next the next say, he watched the film of the game and he's like, I have no idea what happened after that. But he played the whole time, and so it's just I don't know it just I know it's a new it's a new era and these players are soft and it's all about CTE and all this bullshit. But he took a week off. You took a week off, and you still can't get your ass, get your asked up there and find that fucking dog
and play a game. I gets this, sorry ass. Pitan's that's a free square. You have a free square. Win. You get to go out there, you get to boost your stats, you get to throw it around the yard. You're gonna get like probably two or three touchdowns for sure. And now I don't know what to do because we got we got Davis Mills who looked like absolute dog shit for three quarters last week and then went donkey in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville.
Seven seventh quarter. Well, no, he didn't start the other game, so whatever whatever he was in plus the first three plus the rest of his life.
So I don't I really don't know. I'm just pissed that they took the pre square away from me because what what is it? What's the line movement? Like, what's officially down to? And where do you think it's going? So all the way down? I'm still gonna take Houston, Like I mean, I've talked about this earlier. Why do you.
Jesus on Jesus, it's six flat? But wherever there is juices on the sixth, so we could heading to five and a half territory here.
I mean, the Titans are three and six ATS, and my only question to that is, how the hell did they ever get the three I have no clue how they even got three ats ats covers. So yeah, I want to be on Houston and it's now homeboy. Their best player on defense for Tennessee whose names escape with me? Right now? I will get it. Justin Simmons. There's rumors he might play. He's raiding out. He's raiding out right now.
Is the second defensive tackle win the league. And he's always been in the top five or ten, like he's a p Neil All Pro Pro Bowl type player. Why he would come back, I don't know, like like like, why are you even coming back? He must love football and that that's that's great for him. Just maybe since this one division, maybe sit this one out. So and I've got no faith in in the Texas or the Titans coming off of a bye with a shitty coach and no direction and no offense. Hey, it's still the
free Square to me. Although I'm a little bit timid, I'm not gonna lie.
That's gonna be a tester. The only thing I have in this game is coming off a buye since twenty one, You're home and the dog. This is the spot. Fifteen ats plus two point two sixty percent on an averageon of four point four that has them obviously covering the six eleven or fourteen straight up forty four percent that actually is a little bit better than average and only losing by two point two points per game. I did pull the division on thing was only like four games.
That's not going enough sample SiZ to talk about.
So can I just say just think nothing about all that? For a year and a half or more, there's been nothing but great spots for Tennessee. It's just like, just go down. How many times have I lost bets on great spots with Tennessee? Like, so, I agree, it's another great spot for Tennessee. It doesn't seem to fucking matter with them. So yeah, I'm I'm gonna be on the Texans.
They're literally the IOWA of fucking professional football. Like they have to have a special team score. They've gotta have a defensive score. They've gotta have these to even fucking have a chance of winning a game, much less covering a game just to.
Cover perfect perfect example is before the buy when they played the Chargers, they had they had two kick return touchdowns and then one field goal off of I don't remember the scenario. We I talked about it during that game. That was their seventeen points and oh they got They managed to get one more field go on their own, so they got three points on their own. That is the only way they cover. And is that gonna happen? Breathe the bike and post the post by I doubt it.
Give me the Texas to win twenty to twenty three to fucking I don't know nine.
And Davis Mills for twenty three points, I don't know. That's tall.
Well he did. He did twenty six and one quarter. So by your tongue, siry, I mean he did it. He did it one quarter last week?
Did he use up all his points for the No?
No, He's charging his way back to a starter role and it started. It started last week in the fourth quarter and it continues this week against Tennessee.
You know what's funny about this, I was like, when I saw the fact that Davis was gonna start, I went to like the comments section of the thing. It popped up on the app and literally, like everybody in Fantasy was like hell yeah, like fucking Nico, Nico king Niko to the house, Nico max points Nika, like everything was like yay, yay, yay, we get Davis Mills is not fucking Stroud. So it was like, it was so funny to see that, like you do people people did watch the game, right.
Like I get it, but still no, they don't watch the game. They just watch their fantasy team scoreboard, the matchup scoreboard. I thought they don't. They don't, they don't care.
All right, well, here's a game where you probably don't need to watch the fantasy matchup scoreboard. It's my Jacksonville Jaguars hosting those Sandyago Superges. They are three point home dogs. It was two and a half earlier in the week this one. I think we're sitting at a pretty solid three. Now, let me double check. Here we go. Still still two and a half at Circa and oh sorry, at Westgate,
but three pretty much everywhere else. Juice to the three though, so let's call it two point seventy five, but only one two and a half left Long Horn, so it's pretty much of the three or you're taking three.
Yeah, this one you can get. I don't think you can get more than three, though I don't think so either. This one was a struggle for me. I didn't find any deciding factors in this one. I don't even I don't even have a team that I want to be on, Like, I can't even decide who I even want to be on in an abstract angle on this because I don't Trevor Lawrence. I hate him with a passion. I never want, never want to be on him. But the defense of the Jaguars I do think has a nice little spot
here against that offensive line of the Chargers. And the Chargers are coming coming in, you know, down into the Miami you know area. It's all the way across the country, you know. But I don't feel great about it. And at three points, at three points, I'm a lean to Jackson. I'm not gonna waste the times. It's kind of like a pass for me, basically, but on unforced lean, I'll
take the Jaguars at home getting to the three. But this is this to talk me into one side or the other because I don't like it.
Yeah, I wish I could, uh Kyle Regan is a no cale here. It's fair line these He's got the Chargers forty three and a half is where the overs sitting in over under. I've got the charge running twenty five twenty two, so literally right on the number, a little bit over. I kind of like the over a little bit here. Now, this is a terrible matchup for my boy too. He loses two points to the VBG, not expecting a lot of good things out of him. Good matchup for the Jason running game, though, when we
know that's the catalyst and this whole offense. So I think there's an avenue for them to score those twenty two points because on the other side, it's a flat matchup for herbs and a flat matchup for their running game, So I expect them to do what they normally do. Now, you've got a couple of buy situations. I'll get to in a second. But if you ask me about defense, Jackson's defense has been decent this year. However, if I asked you Longhorn, since Week seven, who's the third worst
defense success rate in the entire league? Who would you guess that is?
I'm gonna I'm gonna guess you're gonna say.
Jacksonville, Jacksonville the only two teams worse in Washington in the Bengals. That's pretty fucking bad. And this Chargers defense started good, still good. Last four weeks number five, they've been Yeah.
They've been. They've been doing well. And what was the week that you said the Jaguars Since that, they've been going bad since week seven, since week seven, Okay, yeah, this is not good because like you can give them past the week seven because they played the Rams the week then they had to buy, and then week nine to ten it's the fucking Raiders and the Texans with Davis Mills like that, you're not trending well. I don't like that at all.
I don't like that at all. I don't like them. I don't like the fact that Trevor Larris got a bad match up here. Now if you look at the bye week though, so the Chargers going into the bye so that before the buye away favorites again, That's why I don't like the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here twenty and fifteen ATS fifty seven covered by one point three points. That's on an Amazon of three and a half. We're already under that.
So that's that's almost enough. That's good enough for me to for a time breaker. So forget what I said. I like the Chargers now because like I was up throwing everything else and there was nothing standing out at least that with twenty that's thirty five game samples, so it's not like a small stample. That's good enough for me on a game that I had no way to decide which way to go, I'll take that. I'll switch my my wan to the Chargers.
And then if you look at the same thing, but you're playing a team not in your division, because a lot of these games this week are divisions, well let's see what it's not in the division. That's fifteen and nine ats covering by two points a game, a line of exactly three sixteen and seven straight up sixty nine points six percent. That is over that both of them are over the average straight up twenty three and ten sixteen and seven fifteen to nine sixty two and a
half percent. But to my numbers point both trends slightly over on the big trend eighteen sixteen and one, but going over at one point two points per clip, and that's in the line of forty five and a half. We're only at forty three and a half. The total just seems low to me, and I understand because Jacksonville's offense has been so bad. But again, there is an avenue for ETN to bust a couple of those big plays in this game, which will be the difference this
game gets over or not. I just expect the Chargers go score there twenty three to twenty six points somewhere around in there. I got a great twenty five. If Jacksonville can get in that twenty one range, we're home on and over. Anyway I could play, this would be the over and no other way at all, because again I don't even know what to do with Jacksonville at this point of will numbers say it's going to be right on the number. It's an easy pass for me.
Just a side note, has nothing to do with this game. I've talked about it in weeks past. The tension and the aggravation between this new coach Cohen and this quarterback. I think he despises this guy with every ounce of his being. Like, and TL's got a huge contract, you know, he just got paid not that long ago.
We see you not how could you not despise the guy that you see do things in practice, you see do things in the game. You're like, why don't you just do that all the fucking time.
Well, it's not, well, it's not even just that, it's it's some of it's some of the I remember talking about a few weeks ago where he was literally standing next to the next to the ref with his arms like, literally right next to the ref could have called time out, had a time on his back, and he was just watching and his every every part of his bible was like, are you actually going to see what's going on and call this time out yourself? I'm right here, I could
do it. He's literally right next to me. I got my arms crossed, like I'm a pissed off parent watching a child do something stupid. And he didn't do it. And he just shook his head when the play went too when the playcock went to zero and they got the lay a game, Like, I think he hates this guy so much. The lack of football passion coming from Baker Mayfield. Remember he's he coached Baker Mayfild last year.
Who all you get with him is passion, love of the game, intensity, and he comes to this guy who's five inches taller, six inches taller all the time in the world, like where is Like I think he I think he wants to get rid of the yeo. I don't know if he's gonna have to pull with that kind of contract to do it. But that kind of tension, now, that's not good. You don't want that kind of tension between coach and quarterback. You want that, you want that to be a marriage. So I think that explains a
lot of the issues going on with Jacksonville. And that's that's more of a story for the offseason because because they're not doing anything obviously this year.
I actually saw as a snake preview of It's kind of one of those in season things they interviewed h TL LIKEAB like, you know, just give us like thirty seconds in your person. Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an IQ of forty eight. And then what some people call mentally retarded.
Yes, I was about to say, I thought you were being serious every thing, because I've literally never seen him talk about anything like I mean, I don't I have to struggle to like even think in my mind what his voice even sounds like. I just he doesn't do anything. He's just he's a robot who doesn't care about football. That's not good for quarterback.
Here's what I will say. I don't think we've ever seen and your girl Taylor spoke in the same place same time. I'm just I'm not saying I'm just saying, Yeah, he's.
The gangly bitch, that's for sure.
All right, let's move on. Let's go Buffalo. What are you doing hosting those Tampa bakers and all that fire? Five and a half is what I had this one sitting at earlier. I think we're still close to that now. Man, this this line, Yeah, it's five and a half across the board, but Bota's got it at six juice A little bit on the six. I don't know. I don't
know which way it's gonna go. The money's kind of trickling in on Buffalo right now, so they could get back It opened at six, what's to five and a half? Still five and a half juice, It could get back to six weather coming in. I don't know, what do you go on?
This tug of war on this one? And I was torn a lot and this one, this is kind of like a the week of tie breakers for me and liking both sides for different reasons and having to find one thing to pull me one way or the other. And that's kind of how I handicapped this one. So things on both sides are like, first of all, you already got Baker as a dog, and Baker is a dog. That's a sweet spot. Baker is a dog coming off a loss. That's another sweet spot. Fifteen and four career
as a dog. Baker is seventeen and seven as a dog off of a loss ATS. So there's all I mean, without even like thinking, you already know Baker dog coming up loss. Boom, there's your spot for Tampa Bay. However, Josh Allen's got some stats on his side too, coming off of because they're off a loss too. So Josh Allen coming off a loss at a road loss is a big favorite. Next game, he's six and three ATS. You'd like that to be a little bit higher, but
still that's sixty Yeah, that's six and three. Yeah, that's ats. So that's nothing to sneeze at. Josh coming off of a game where they scored less than seventeen points. The next game they're thirteen and six ATS. So when he doesn't score a lot of points, and if you're under seventeen for a Buffalo offense in his career, that's putrid. The next game they show up thirteen and six ats. So all these were like tug of war type things where I couldn't make my mind until I found this.
That's even with like the early shitty Josh Allen yours too, where they were nineteen points they were lucky to get to. So I'd like to see what that is like over the last five years, you know what I'm saying, Like, yeah, see became John Wayne.
So and then here's my tiebreaker and why I landed on Buffalo and I don't know why as New England just dropped the ball with Baker's not running the ball anymore. In the last three games he has zero zero yards rushing, zero rushing attempts both. What is yes, but this is not being reported that he's not on the injury list. Something is going on because that is such a bread and butter part of their offense him him just doing these wild ass third and long second and long like.
Just spreads yet game We're back to what was the other game? Another really good team he had that insane.
San fran San Francisco. So like, without that, that's gotta be a tiebreaker. So you know, I'm not gonna go crazy on his game, obviously because because I do have respect for those numbers with Baker as a dog coming off a loss. But when I when I gotta, I gotta pick somebody. If you're in a contest picking every game, you got to pick somebody against the spread. That's my tiebreaker. I'm gonna be on Buffalo. Try to catch them at the minus five and a half. If you agree, If
you disagree, let it tick up to six. Grab the Bucks.
Yep, so powering, he said five and a half. Great for the Bucks v two those on no call. I've got Buffalo winning twenty five to twenty one. So that would be Tampa Bay covering. It's under the forty seven and a half. Look, it should be a decent game. Josh Allen gains a half a point the BPG. It's a bad matchup for Baker. He loses the point in half. And that's not even counting what Longhorn just said. But
his running abillity maybe hampered just because maybe he's hurt. However, how I can see Tampa Bay covering this game, they gained a point and a half of the bbtth the rushing Buffalo's rushing defense not good. Tampa Bay Buffalo loses the half a point. Tampa Bay Longhorn since week seven is the number one success rate rushing defense. They're trending up and up and up. So that is what will keep them in this game, is not allowing James Cook to go off, holding that Buffalo running game and check
making Josh Allen move the ball down the field. We've seen him get frustrated in some of these kind of games, felt some interceptions like he did last week in Miami. You know, we've seen that happen. So I think that's Tampa Bay's path to victory is just stifling that running game, which they absolutely should be able to do. However, on the other side, they should be able run the ball well.
But with Baker gritting out so badly, I can't go crazy on the Tampa Bay side either, because if Baker's not great, it's gonna be very tough to cover that five and a half six points. If he can beat my numbers a little bit, they can run the ball really, really well and really shut down that Buffalo running game, which is only half a point down, so it's not like crazy shutdown. But if it gets even better than that, then yeah, I think I think Tampa Bay could be
a live dog in this game. If all those things come to fruition. Overall, it's great. And I got Buffalo winning by four slightly under the total, which if you look how Tampa Bay's offense has been going lately and Buffalo's offense is been going lately, it's not a stretch to think that they don't score forty eight points in this game.
So and lean under buck. Irvin has been LP the last couple of practices, so limited limited, that's trending towards maybe he plays. So if he gets announced, if he's a, if he's a full participant in Friday's practice, look out that this this line will drop back down to five and a half for sure, maybe maybe even five because he is a. You know, I don't think we quite understand how important he is to that Tima Bay offense.
He's everything on this one because they're only their only path to covering because it's not a Baker game on this one. So unless Baker's just pulling shut out of his ass what she absolutely can, and we've seen him do, but we don't generally see the Baker do there for four for four quarters, that's when you see the Baker. Eventually, the dust of the pick does get the fumble, especially.
If he's not running, especially if he's not running.
Absolutely absolutely all right, let's move on to those Arizona midgetless Cardinals hosting. Oh my god, the man is finally coming back.
I can't believe this, big dick. I cannot believe this.
And this line didn't move a fucking inch. So let's see. It's just still should be sitting at three. It is sitting are yeah three three with no juice across the board, is three points road favorite for the forty nine ers.
Again, another game I'm completely torn on. And I don't actually this brock Party news. I actually don't like it. I I thought, and and maybe it's just a bad read by me, but I thought that Shanahan because of his love of mac Jones and wanted to draft him. I thought he was gonna be like, you know what, mac Jones is playing, well, why rush party back? He's obviously dealing with with that toe injury. This is risky to me because because party is gonna he's definitely not
gonna be one hundred percent. He's not a hundre. He's definitely not one hundred percent, and he's definitely gonna be rusty. With that said, sand Frand is about as healthy as they're ever gonna get this year. Obviously, they're missing players that are done for the year, you can't do anything
about that. But as far as like players that were like you know in and out Ricky pearsol Is coming back, this is as healthy as they're gonna get this year right now, assuming Brock party Is is going to come back and play, so ah Man and in the Harrison Marvin Harrison being out for for the Arizona you know, you want to say this, what's that? Yeah, Fenocidis. So that's that's tough break for them. I wanted I wanted to be on Arizona much in the in the second
half of the year. And you know what San France coming off at I know, Sam Fran coming off a loss, and and I did write down what is the McCaffrey advantage situation this because that's that's like I want to be on San Fran. I need you to tell me this is a plus matchup for him if it is. Despite the Party news, which I do not like. I wanted it to be MATC Jones, I will I will still be on San.
Fran So it wasn't even to great this game. But I knew you're gonna ask for that, so at least created the rushing part out for Party, I mean for McCaffrey. Uh, it's a flat matchup for him, so he should get about what he gets, which is probably enough in this game.
Yeah, that doesn't. That doesn't make my balls team. When you're saying like that, you're not You're not saying it with your chest.
Yeah.
Here's the other thing too, is like this San Fan defense has been so bad, dude, of the last four weeks, since all these injuries. I mean, look, big prompts to their defensive coordinator. He's held this thing together with fucking you know, bailing twine and every other fucking thing he could for four weeks. They're twenty seventh in Russian success rate. Let's see, they're in dropback success rate, oh, twenty nine, so basically there's a twenty eight. They're the fourth worst
defense in the NFL for the last month. So that's the kind of success that I think, or the kind of spot where I didn't like the Cardinals last week. I was on Seattle because I didn't think Ja Cobb Set versus a really good defense could have that same success. Now against this defense, I think Jacoby Set could have plenty of success. Now he is missing Marvin Harrison. That does hurt. That hurts he got in that's his number
one dude. He's actually using him, you know, like you should use the number one receiver, well.
Him, him and McBride, you know, him and McBride.
Like McBride's always no matter who start. But like I mean, Marvin Harrison's being criminally underused with the midget in there because he can't see him. But Jacob Russett was targeting him specifically, which is what you should do. And against the bad defense like this. If Marvin Harrison is playing, I would already bet the Partinals, there's no doubt about it. But without him, with Broad coming back, it's there's too many unknowns in this. As you know, his other best
to be made. I'm this is just to stay away from me. Yeah, I still I didn't get the slam dunk rating from McCaffrey.
So I'm like that, Yeah, even with us spending five minutes going back and forth in this game, I still I don't have a great feel either way. I really don't, because because I do think I do think Brissette's gonna be able to sit back there and find his targets and and then and this is just gonna be and if you're getting the three points, and I just I don't like it. Stay away from this one unless you unless you're forced to stay away from this one.
All right, let's move on to a game against the two teams that I just said on Monday that I thought him separated themselves the rest of this pile of mediocrity in the NFC, and that's those Los Angeles Rams hosting those Seattle Seahawks. Now this one, uh, this line has moved a little bit. Let's see, at least the juice had been bouncing around so open at three and that's kind of coming back. Now it's three and a half only at Bobada, and that's that's very heavily juice.
Pretty much three juice kind of mixed. Man, It's just it's kind of been bouncing back and forth. The betting Mark has been very torn on this one, so I don't know what you got on this game.
I am shockingly because Seattle is my NFC the Championship Game participant. I don't have them winning going in the Super Bowl, but I've got them in the Championship game, picked them and win this division. I love the Rams in this spot. I think that the Rams are set up to exposed this defense. Who when they played past them when they play a real quarterback And I'm trying to pull that up because I had that kind of
in my notes to pull up. But when they played like a Baker, When Baker played Seattle, Baker had his way. When they played let's see who's the other, Well, well, I guess, I guess. Have they played anybody besides Baker that's a good quarterback? Jesus, look at their list of quarterbacks they've played. They haven't played it, Okay, So that's the point. They played one real quarterback and they got fucking toasted. So yeah, I'm gonna be on the Rams here.
These are two great teams. I think these are both teams that could that could be in the Ncrater Championship Game. And they're both seven and two straight up. They're both seven and two at S So this is definitely one of the games of the week to watch. But I think I think this matchup favors the Rams and and and I'm only in that way, and I got a couple of trends that that that back to meet up. McVeigh is twelve and five ats in his career versus Seattle with Stafford four and one ats.
Rams.
Yes, so, and we've talked about this so much in the past. In this division, you cannot ignore it. It's like it's you're you have to have a reason to go against that, and you have to deem good reason. And I don't see one here, so yeah. And the other one was Seattle hasn't played any opposing good quarterbacks besides Baker, who lit their ass up. So yeah, it's all Rams for me, reluctantly because because I love Seattle.
Yeah, I thought that I was gonna be with you on this. I'm now torn just going there right now. First of all, it's a no by the Power Rings, no cob by the b two. I've got Seattle grading out to win twenty one to twenty damn really both of these, yeah, both of them. But here's the thing, this is a terrible matchup about these offenses. Again, I can only go off what they've done and the grades and who they've played. Stafford loses two points, Sammy d lose a point and a half. Rams was a point
and a half in the running game. Seattle lose a half a point. I just, man, I think this is gonna be a fucking good, old fashioned slobber knocker. I know the totals high, I've got it going.
It could be. I could see that. I could see that happening too.
You know, it's kind of like that. It's kind of like the we talked about the Philly game and Detroit last week, No Phillian. Who was it was the Philly Detroit, No Philly in green Bay? Yeah, And you're like, I don't see how green Bay scores. I don't see how fucking Philly scores. I guess what. Neither one who fucking scores? So it kind of has that feel to be right here with two really good teams.
Well, but we we can both see them. I could see both of them. I could see it scoring going crazy too. And this one was not like, not quite like last week.
It's just it's such a bad matchup for and these teams know each other so well. Look, I mean it's to me on this one. It comes down who you trust more. Because you've got one guy on one side that's the offensive dude. You got the other guy on the other side, McDonald, who's obviously the defensive dude. I mean, I don't this this chess match is gonna be so good on both sides. You know which quarterback you trust more.
We've seen what Sammy d does against a good team when he's facing a quarterback that's better than him, Like you talked about Baker obviously established better than him, seeing him kind of wilt in those situations. So I don't feel great about Seattle. I was ready to fucking hammer the Rams. I thought the money would come in on Seattle. I thought this would be two and a half easily by the time we got to the podcast. It has not happened. It's been a tugg O world all week long,
the money coming in both sides in the marketplace. I think everybody's kind of feeling how we're feeling, Like, I don't know, man, Seattle's been great. The Rams have surged to great. They didn't start out great. They've surged great. Which which one of these is a paper tiger, and which one of these is actually gonna be the team I'm excited to watch it. I know that there's you know, I mean this week is one of them. For sure.
You say they didn't start off right. They they've got two losses. The one was the fluke one to Philly early in the year easily could have been a win, and the other one was the fluke were not fluke, but they were the thumb on the goal line against San Franz. Again say it, so, you know, like they could easily easily be undefeated right now and and clearly the best team in the NFL. So, I mean, you don't win every game, these these tossed up games that
they could go either way. You're not gonna win every one of them. But that's something to be said that there are only two losses easily could have been wins for them, and if you go to Seattle, let's see, their two losses were the opening opening one in San Francisco, which it was the close game that that one definitely could have gone either way, and then obviously the close game against Tampa Bay. So these are two Juggernauts.
I mean, these are yeah, both these seams are really fucking good. Yeah. If you look at the way to the last four weeks, so trending bull these Devens is trending down a bit. But again, I think with Seattle, a lot of that noise gets mixed in with They've been blowing people out left right, and the rams kind of too. So you know, well, we'll see how that. I'm excited to see how it plays out.
Oh, for sure. Game of the week, for sure.
All right, let's move on to Wow. I thought this is a game of week against those Cleveland Browns, those Ravens. Uh, this one, this line is fucking banana sandwich. Is that I'm seeing nines in some places, which is ridiculous. I'm seeing eights, I'm seeing seven and a half. I don't even know what to say. At the seven and a half, it's basically even everywhere. At the eighties, even at the nine,
it's plus money in the Browns. I don't know who bet online has got somebody's fucking slammed Ravens that book. So that's the only explanation I got for that one. I mean, I guess we'll call it seven and a half long horn. It's kind of the consensus across the at least of all the even money books in the Sharper books at seven and a half. So let's say seven and a half Ravens Road of Favorites.
Yeah, well, I'll tell you what I'm seeing. I'm seeing the danger zone game of the week. And not only do I want the do I want the points the plus points? I want to I want two units. And I'll explain why I'm gonna sort heavy on this game. I want two units on the plus is an eight or eight and a half? Consensus?
Seven and a half the census?
No way, it's seven seven and a half. Yeah, um, yeah, let's just let's just go hard on it. Seven and a half, two units and then give me a half unit on money line half unit on money line. Okay, Well, and here's why, here's why. We've seen some fuckery with with Lamar and this this horror ball coaching staff, and we've seen we'll see that, we've seen the fucker with this team and their quarterback situation. Lamar's dealing with the
injury again and it and it's been quiet. It's been like, well, he's probably gonna play, likely gonna play, and he is likely gonna play. But because they have they've got no more games to bitch. No, it's an actual injury. He got. He got banged up in the game last week, but he's got He can't set this one out. They got no more room to wiggle here. But if he does play, he's still gonna be hurt. And if you're a limited we we just talked about Baker not running the ball
and what that what that does to his game. If Lamar is hurt and he's limited in in his running game against that defensive line in Cleveland at home, remember this is this is Cleveland sweet spot. They're back at home. This is where they they play good defense, not shitty defense on the road. This is a problem. Baltimore. You got a problem if Lamar is not running the ball and not effective running the ball against that pass rush. I'm just saying, because like the Miami game last week
in Buffalo, I'm just saying, weird things out there. Weird thing is gonna happen in these type of spots. This is a this is a division game, huge dog at home and look, okay, I'm gonna throw it to you because I've said my piece, I'm already heavy on it. I just put it all out there. So what do you got disagreement?
He slopped it out there on us. No power reig is a no call. This line is perfect. Thirty eight and a half is disgusting total. I got Baltimore winning this game thirteen. That's not a call. It's more within half a point or right on market if you've got the heat. Uh thirty four points though quite a bit
to the under. Now, it's not a It's not the worst matchup I've ever seen for Jillan Gabriel, say that he'll lose a half a point, but any great matchup for Lamar, he's that it's flat, so he's nothing special. I like that it's a flat matchup for the Baltimore for the Browns running game. Derrick Henry in that running game loses a point and a half of the versus
the Cleveland defense. Now here's my caveat to this, And this is the defense I was talking about as I was looking up like the splits, This Cleveland pass defense is slipping hard hard. They are only above average at this point, league average at cover one. That's all They're that's all they're really good at anymore. They're down to fourteenth and EPA and eleventh and success rate against the past.
They were like number fucking one or two the whole first half of the season, and since Week eight against the pass they're eighteenth in e PA and sixteenth and success rate. I don't remember them playing a lot of fucking juggernauts lately, So what what ever's happening? They're slipping real fucking hard. I mean, I know what's happening because
we watched the games. They can't score the ball. When you can't score the fucking ball, it is very fucking difficult to play great defense when you're always defending plus territory, the opponent's always in plus territory, the opponent always has the fucking ball. Because you can't fucking get first downs, you can't fucking score points. This defense is tired. This defense is fucking it's fighting hard, and it is good. It's really good, it's really talented. But over the last
four weeks they are slipping badly. This was a top three defense the whole first half of the year. Second half the year, they're a blow average defense. Can Lamar take advantage of that. If he's hurt, I don't know. But what I do know is they don't grade out well against them, but they still score twenty one points. And if you score twenty one points against the Browns, you're gonna win the game. You're gonna fucking win the.
Game, definitely. So probably don't cover, Probably don't covert cover.
I got I've got to run on the number. So I don't disagree with your I mean, there's a zero chance out ever LA seven and a half in Baltimore game. I've done that before, and I've learned my lesson, and I've done it against like fucking can he Pickett and still learn my lesson, Like I've done that. I'm not doing that ever again, So I get it. But yeah, as far as winning the game, oh, it's gonna say, it's gonna take a I mean von Miller, not von Miller, but it's my boy Garrett.
Well it'll it'll take that. And Lamar just having one of those like Lamar, what the fuck are you doing type game, which which happens all all the time. Yeah, this happens all the time. I was just looking at the.
Pis usually in this matchup Baltimore is like, at this point of the season, they're seven and two.
Right, and not desperate, right?
Not desperate?
Yeah, that that's a factor for sure. And I was just looking at the PFF scores on Cleveland's defense, and it's lights out across the board, except for to your point, the cornerbacks, which they're really good cornerbacks historically in the past.
Denzel Award and Tyson Campbell. These are two guys that at different points over the last four or five years, just because I watched PFF so much in the greats top five, top eight type cornerbacks at certain points over the last four or five years, it's sometimes it's just so weird when you watch these scores and really good players who for whatever reason aren't kind of clicking for a certain year. But across the board everywhere else on
this Cleveland defense, it's really fucking good. So I think they're a live dogger. They're a love dog to win this game.
I mean again, I've got them great out to shut down this running game. He shut down this fucking Baltimore running game. Put it all in the bar.
Like you said, New England wins and covers again. They are the team that they have no letdown. There's no leadown they did, there's no bad spot.
Twelve and a half. Oh if you got the look the Jets were thirteen and a half for about two hours earlier.
That didn't covery. Oh no, that did cover half. Holy shit, So closing line. That was the closing line.
Thirteen Oh wow half, well closing line. But if you were smart enough to get that thirteen and a half, oh baby, I got.
The eleven and a half, So not that. I mean, that's a dead number all the way to thirteen, so it doesn't fucking matter.
But yeah, so New England. So hey, I'll move on to Survivor.
But oh well, everybody congratulate him in the comments. Nobody gives up. Fuck, we're all dead in the fucking Survivor. We don't care.
You're gonna be caring for your boys holding one hundred thousand dollars. I don't care to give me those big checks. Even that guy got one.
That's true because I because I do contractually get half, so I never mind. I do care. You're you're well job, well done.
On the wind sir, thank you. We're down to like four hundred people now in my Survivor contest. For grand So now I will say, I don't know what the percentage is. This doesn't give me a percentage of course of the week's over. But it's got like a little green bar. You can see people selected, lots of people, a lot of green on the news.
Oh yeah, I mean for sure, this is like a free square for everybody.
This is so little side under Survivor if you're if you're still in Survivor, if you've been playing Survivor ever, when you get to this point in the season, it's okay to go with the herd. Like you don't need to be contrarian right now. You gotta like, from this point of season on, you really have to pick a spot. You have to pick a spot, say, and you don't have to go because some people think, oh well, I gotta go with the opposite of what everybody else. No,
you don't. You don't. You just don't pick the team that everybody else is on. You pick a different team and then hope to God that that team that you know, Carolina loses the fucking h New Orleans is what you do that you just don't pick Carolina and hope that it goes badly for everybody else. That's really the whole key to survivor.
Can I just say before before we finish a podcast, I can't believe that the one of the greatest and brightest young black NFL head coaches lost another game by double digits. I'm I just I'm always amazed. It's it's it's just.
Had some live commentary on this game.
Though.
Let's see, Bruisers, Sue, there we go, pop that up. Justin Fields cannot be this damn bad. I mean, Jesus Christ, what's the jay and that multiple ease?
Love the spelling, well that spelling, Bruisers, Sue, I would say to you, have you not been watching Justin Fields for literally his entire since we.
Got the coved here, Let's go over his line fifteen for twenty six for one hundred and sixteen yards, four point five yards per attempt, Yison. Now he didn't throw a pick. That's pretty good, and he threw a touchdown.
What else do you fucking want from this guy? I mean, honestly, that's like maybe when of his Game of the Year lines right there, Other than the fact that we played Remember remember when we when he played Pittsburgh and we were all like, oh, no is this justin field thing is gonna work out him.
Yeah. It was the first game of the year and he put up.
A thirty burger against that defense. Oh no, if he's gonna do this against Pittsburgh, there's no way they're not gonna win six.
We're fucked.
We're fine.
This is when this is when your coach and quarterback pulmination meets D E, I and everything and then everything goes D I E. You're dead. Jets, You're dead.
Let's move on to this. This actually might be the game. Well, these last two games actually very interesting to be and it'd be great point Sminster. So Sunday Night football, it's those Dan burd Broncos host Kansas City Jeeps. Now, this one was one and a half Kansas City in pre season. So I want you to think about this, Vegas. That's not my line, Vegas line. I didn't have my lines pulled up one and a half. We're sitting currently at four. This line has moved over at two and a half.
It's at four across the four now, juice the four minus one fifteen on average, dude. So we've seen these two teams do what they do and yet now one and a half has become four. Somehow Kansas City has improved two and a half points, even though right now along horner of the season is today they're not even in the fucking playoffs.
I know, well, and that's why you play seventeen bo see if it's because like it's not, we don't stop after nine games. So stop this whole this whole lot like the Cats out of the back at this point, like like even me a bon Knicks supporter, and uh, the guy saying be patient, be patient, be patient. Bonnick struggled in this first year. Early came on at the at the end of the year. Dude, this is this
is a travesty. This is I mean, we just talked about how bad Justin Fields is, Like Bonicks isn't that bad, but he's fucking pretty fucking bad. Like it's it's nobody's it's so bad that Sean Payton, who is a great, great offensive line And that's that's the biggest thing to me, is is you is you have you got you you got? You got the lottery ticket. Yeah, you got the lottery ticket. You got like Mahomes got with Andy Reid. When you're a quarterback that gets drafted by an offensive guru and
then you suck you. I'm sorry, I can't. I can't roll with this anymore. And the fact that Denver's eight and two, they're the biggest fraudulent the aid and to eight and two, and their ATS record explain their ATS record explains it all. They're four and six ats. That is a that's a complete opposite that that should not be,
that that dispersed. Look this line at four, three and a half, four, whatever it's at, I should be in in my in my past, I would be slamming Denver here, slamming Denver, not even thinking fucking twice, pounding it in there. I can't do it. I can And the thing is on the other side. For for years now, I've been saying, you can't take you can't take Mahomes over three points as a favorite. That's not his sweet spot. So once again, the theme of the week tug of war torn both ways.
I can make arguments for both sides. So this is gonna be a tough week for me again picking games.
In this position. We're not used to seeing lamar Ben three and six. We're not used to seeing Homes out of the playoffs.
That's that's true, So there's no there's so they should now I'm assuming because I because we've been doing this for so long, you're gonna have some nice off the buye type stuff with with any Reid and in Kansas
City situationally coming off to buy. But okay, last point, I'll thought to you, Patrick artan missing for the Denver Broncos that hasn't had a chance to affect Denver as far as far as the win call them yet this game, this will be the game they're gonna feel that effect of of I can startan missing because the speed of the uh of Kansas City's weapons over the top is
finally going to be felt. And in a tug of war situation where I can't really decide, I'm going to lean towards the Hall of Famer and the next the baby goat in my homes and I'm gonna fade the bow knicks. I don't know what the fuck I'm doing when I'm when I'm playing quarterback, like just until I
see it, I just can't do it. And I think that a Sintnet eight and two, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this team finishes like a ten and six or two, ten and seven has a nice little late season collapse, still makes the playoffs first round exit, and then we got questions in the off season about bo Nicks in his future. Yeah, so.
I shouldn't be torn on this one at all. I should just be slamming Denver, powering Denver Denver.
Yeah, I've.
Bo Nix is half a point of the BBG against the Kansas defense, which, by the way, since Week seven is the ninth best success rate defense in the league. However, Denver is still number four. They've been top five all year. There's been no slippage in Denver. And for that reason, Mahomes loses a point and a half of the BVG and more important than me, they lose a point and
a half running the ball against this defense. I don't know how can't other than Patrick Mahomes, which that's Patrick Mahomes, So that's how how do they score more than twenty points against this defense? I mean, other than the Bodicks throwing the ball away, which he absolutely can and he might. But the total of this one should tell you. Everything's forty four and a half. I've even got it going under that. I don't I don't know how we get there, and if you look at the I don't have the
Andy ree byde thing has been slipping of late. But if you just look at teams off of bye away Favorite since twenty twenty one, thirteen and sixteen ats forty four point eight percent. Not a huge you know margin there, but it's on a lot of minus four point two, which is exactly where sitting now. Twenty and eleven straight up winning about four point eight points a game, sixty four point that's a little bit below average favorite usually wins.
In this league.
But the the Broncos are going onto the buy and if you're on the buy at home as a dog, that is the spot eighteen fourteen and one fifty six average you guessed it four, which is exactly where we're sitting here now now.
Dobbins the Dolveins injury and likely out for the year. I mean, it's it that one's kind of there's some mixed mixed interest in it, but that's so huge, Like he's been a huge part of their all.
Harvey not is he not?
He has not? I swear go down the list.
R J.
Harvey underwhelming, uh Ingram everan Ingram the tight end they brought in underwhelming, like there's Courtland Sutland at times like I don't know, I don't think Sean Payton's gonna get a pass on this, And maybe it's all just Bonix. They could just be the quarterback suck. I mean yeah, I mean I guess history would say that because or or maybe well, we know Evan Ingram is a good tight end because we saw him at Jacksonville and at
New York, so we know he's good. But for whatever reason, this this goulash of offense that that Sean Payne has mixed up, it's soured and it's poisoned by the quarterback being so bad. So it's just not average.
Is like four yards, I mean, it's kind of easy for a defense, you know what.
Okay, that's a great point because bo nixt Champagne is trying to take the top off the defense to open things up underneath, and every fucking time he throws it deep, he misses. He can't hit a deep He cannot hit a deep target to save his life. And you watched him more in college than I did off memory Auburn, Oregon. I remember just dropping dimes into streaking receivers down for I don't remember this ever being like a big problem
for him in college. Now I know it's a completely different situation, but like, what in the fuck is this where he can't every time he drows back and he winds up with those deals. I know it's an incomplete pass Oregon.
We saw the only game will do the same thing under the same offense Oregon.
So yeah, but he's way he's a way better talent than than don't I know.
But my point is like that's that's the reason why that doesn't translate because that red Oregon offense. Just that tells you how bad Oregon's quarterback is this year, by the way, that that they fucking can't function offense like that kid fucking sucks.
So where where are you landing on this one? Which? Which way are you getting landing on?
I mean, I can I can only bet Depp, I can only.
Bet Okay, I don't you're you're reluctantly betting Denver and I'm reluctantly betting Kansas City. This is a stay away game, for sure.
Yeah, more likely than not. All right, let's move on to the Oh it's the Monday night. No, sorry, this is a Sunday night. Football game. I got ahead of myself. Excuse me, it's those goddamn Philadelphia Eagles posting those Detroit Lions. Oh, I'm talking about a fucking slaby knocker brewing. We got two and a half points, is what we're sitting that juice, however juiced. So I expect this to go to three.
And actually Circa just popped a three at even So money coming in on Philly, long wan when you got on your.
Lions, Well, they're not gonna be my lines in this game because I'm on Philly too. I'm I'm on that Philly side of this thing. And for several reasons. Number one, well let's let's let's go big picture. First, We've talked about in the past with Detroit, you have to have a really good reason too bad against his team. There are seventy percent cover team under Dan Campbell and Jared Golf. That combination has been just it's just money. It's it's like it's like printing money. So you got a really
good reason, So automatically I'm going up against it. When I'm saying I'm I'm taking the Philadelphia Eagles. Just a couple of stats Golf twenty five and eight ats at night. This is one of his sweet spots. But he's on the road, and he's outdoors on the road. And we just saw him last week go outdoors on the road against the Dead Skins. This is a different animal going on the road, uh at night.
Against I told you all last week the Pod he's gonna have the best games this season. I'm not gonna tell you that on this one.
You're not gonna. I know you're not gonna before you even say, I know you're not going to and and and that Philly Devens is getting better now. They're with the kind of under the radar moves that they always make.
They now have that depth of rotation pass rushers, which is which is what they do when they're when they're winning super Bowls and they're there, whether they're beating Brady in the Super Bowl or they're beating Mahomes in a Super Bowl, it's because they have a plethora of pass rushers that they can just rotate in and keep fresh. And they made that trade for Jalen Phillips from Miami.
Would you say I have Ale?
That's a great call by That's a great But that's what they do, and they and they've they've built it back up to where they now now they do have a pta of pass rushers to throw at the opposing at the opposing quarterback. So this is gonna be And we saw Dan Campbell calling offense last week. He took over offensive play calling. Uh dudes, And that's cool for
one game. I love that. That's cool that you can be like, look, man, I'm buying kneecaps, I'm buying I'm an Applebee's, fucking like all this all you can eat at Applebee's. I'm calling all the plays. I'm Dan the man. I'm gonna he ain't an offensive coordinator like this. That's there's a sign of issues there if he's having to do that. And now you're going to get a really good defense in a spot where Jared Golf I don't
think it's gonna it's gonna do well. Now mentioned to see how the running game matchup is that you'll that you'll tell us about, because if this is a neutral or even bad spot running the game, this is a smash spot for Philly for me, and I will definitely have them in in some sort of and some picks, but I'm on Philly. I don't want to go too long. I'm on Philly.
I just prison to the numbers or year that you're talking about the defense improving list some moves. So if you looked at the first six weeks, they were twentieth and success rate, he looks in week seven they're up to sixteenth. So that's a pretty good move in basically three weeks that they've played. So I like that trending up. Now, Detroit's been We've talked about Detroit. It's really been the defense carrying this team all season long. For the power Rings,
it's no call. It's a great number. V two does have Detroit forty six and a half. Again, I got it going slightly under. It does grade out to Detroit winning this game twenty four to twenty one, but it's not a good matchup for e. They quarterback, however, hurts and lose half a point. Golf is a full point. Both running games great out his flat, So you.
Know that's good enough. That's good enough.
But if you look at the production, though, Detroit is the better running team, so that's why they grade out to win the game because their running game is just far superior to Phillies this year.
So So is it consensus three? Is it we or can you still get too and a half? Because like in a low scoring game that we think this is gonna be a low scoring game like that, that's there's plenty, Okay that that hook is huge. That that's a monster game like we saw last week ten to seven against Green Bay last week. You gotta get it under three if if you want Philly, you.
Just have to. Yeah, I've got Philly having more success this week on offense. Gotta score twenty one points. Last week got him scoring sixteen, is what I said. They only scored ten. Look, man, if Philly wants to be a real contender this year, this offense is broke. I've been talking about it for a while. Jail Hurst has not been good this year. He wasn't really good last year, but the Barkley thing covered all that up.
Here we go with this bullshit. I'm way too many, I'm way too many beers in and this is like the I'm not gonna stand for this Jalen Hurst. I swear to God, Like, how long do you have to see him just fucking win all the time?
He wins?
Stop saying he's not good. He's a good quarterback, damn near great quarterback.
That's a hard stretch for me right there.
Now, Me, if you like winning, you love them like and you like you like winning bets and winning games and going to super Bowls, you love them. You just fucking love him.
Well, I can't argue that he did just win the super Bowl.
He's the Troy Man. I mentioned this a couple of pockets. He's literally the new age Troy Aigman, where he's never gonna give respect for his numbers and it's always gonna be excuses like well, I got to remember with Aman as well, it's just all that running game. All he doesn't hand off the fucking Troy or Emmitt Smith and and they just they played great defense.
His is just wow. All that's actually a great comp because if you looked at Aigman's best season, it was literally his sixteen playoff games. Those were his best numbers.
Right, and that was his best season and hurts the same thing.
Hurts the same thing. So it's great. I'm not gonna argue with about it. Look, I mean, I think if my problem with Detroit here is backing them when I don't have the confidence that run in which it should be fine, should be what they do. But with golf not grading out, well, I mean again, you're you basically have two even teams at this point. Detroit the better team, but like now they're on the road, there are outside and I don't have any advantage.
Did you say Detroit is the better team.
Yeah, they're still the better team. They're much better defense, much better.
Detroit is the better defense.
Yes, still still the still better defense. If you look over the last since weeks seven, Detroit is seventh, Philly is sixteenth. Yeah, dude, Detroit is fucking fourth in DBOA and Philly is where the fuck is Philly? We're not that far down Philly's seventh. Yeah, Detroit is slightly better team. So again that speaks to word this numbers at So I mean, if you take you from that perspective, we should be slamming Detroit here. But again, the spot like you talked about, I don't know. I mean, I can
see this with going either way. This is a I just want to watch this game and see how it plays out. But I never say Detroit, but the power ranking is a no coal And I'm not My power rings has been so good this year and I've just not followed him like an idiot. So I'm not gonna bet it just because it is a good number. We'll
see how it plays out. I think we're gonna we're gonna We're gonna find out a lot about this new Detroit offense and can it go on the road and win again, win a grind game like I think this one's gonna be.
We'll find out.
We'll find out, all right. Now, we're on the Monday, not football. It is my loss, Vegas raid us hosting those Dallas Cowboys. This one has taken some money on the cow side. I don't think it's it. Oh the money is switching around now, switching around. So it's three and a half. It was straighted towards four. Now we're turning back towards three. West gates actually just popping through. Oh so did the circuits? Who? So yeah, if you like the Raiders, grab him now whose three and a
half are disuppearing? So what do you got on this?
One? Man? Another? Another one I'm torn on And the only reason I'm torn on it is because I don't know how to handicap the the additions of the Dallas Cowboys on players on defense. How do you, how do you handicap possibly four new starters on defense from what they had before the buy overshow might be back starting the rookie.
I think he's I think he's gonna play. I mean, I think you have a for a full four new Yeah, So like what do I mean how do you do that?
So, like I think a suit let's just say that those are like a flat a flat return on investment, which I don't think they're gonna be. I think they're gonna be actually pretty fucking good addition to the defense that's been horrible. So like, how's how's it not going to be more than just a flat addition on defense? If it if it is flat or less than flat, then this is a smash spot for Vegas for me. Dallas on the road as a favorite of over three, that's not been a good spot for them this year.
They went to Carolina lost, and uh, I know I got more I know I got more hold on pump schedule now because because there's been several spots where they've been on the road as a favorite and just it's a flat spot and they lose. Dallas at those are the giants they know, well, no, they they beat the Giants and that was at home, so they haven't played him on the road yet. They went to Chicago and that was close to a pick them game, but they
got their doors blown against Chicago. I mentioned that the Carolina game, went went there as as favorites and lost. They went to Denver and now of course their dogs there, that's the way better team. But then we just saw them last week and I was at home, not on the road, but they were. They were favorites against the Cardinals and loss. So two weeks ago, I'm sorry, yeah,
they had to buy so two weeks ago. So point being, I don't know what to do this because I don't know how these due players are gonna be on that Cowboys defense. And but this should be a Brock Brock Bowers smash spot and a Nashton Genty smash spot. But again, they're not using him the proper way this year, so
I don't know what's gonna happen there with that. But long story short, I'm reluctantly gonna be on the on a forced bet on the Raiders at the three and a half at home, but I don't feel great about it because that if those defensive players come Mountain Ball. They should they should be. We know Dallas is gonna score, so it's all about what what the Cowboys defense can do to slow down the Raiders offense. So what do you got because I'm gonna reluctantly be on the Raiders. Yeah,
fifteen and a half total. Fifteen and a half total, by the way, So the Vegas ain't buying into the to the defense for Cowboys certainly in this game.
Yeah, the Power Ray's got Vegas here, the VT's got Dallas. Fifty and half of these said of the total, I've got this my tie the week, Vegas twenty three to twenty three. So going under that total, this should be a great matchup for Gino gaining two points. Again, we'll see what the additions do. Here's why I really like Vegas is because this is not a great matchup for Dak.
It's flat, which is not bad. I mean deck you know it's put up MVP numbers other than a couple of games, so you can't say it's a bad game for him. Jen t gains half a point, which is not Look, Buss team's gained at least a point. This is Dallas defensive frush defense he's only gaining half a point. You give me the additions that you just bring Quinn and Williams on defensive line, I'm gonna say that's probably
flat at best. But ya Dallas running game, Yeah, I mean like because he had an advantage on what they had. So I'll take the advantage away and say that they still can't run the fucking ball, because even if you give Vegas half a point of the running game, they can't run the balls. No though, now, but Dallas, it's a flat great out for them with their offense on
running the ball. So, yes, they're a good offense, Yes they should score their points, but I don't see any advantage here for them as far as like that they're gonna go off or Dak's gonna have a great game, or they're gonna have a great game run the ball. Uh, look at our if we're talking about our breakdown success, straight and defense alwaysly neither one who's been worth a shitsu Dallas twenty seventh since Week seven, Raiders twenty second.
So you're getting the slightly better defense, you're getting the tallest midget or the smallest turd, whatever you want to say of the two. But the other thing is the trend here, so off the away favorites twenty twenty one thirteen sixty to two ats forty four point eight per average line of Oh, what do you know? Four point two Now they are winning twenty to eleven straight up. Sixty four point five percent is a slightly low average. It's not the best part for the Cows. That three
and a half the hook seems dangerous. It seems dangerous. I would have rather got four. I know there was a couple of the pops here and there, but those are gone. We're trending towards three. If you're gonna get the Raiders, you gotta get them now. I would not wait to get this to three. It doesn't seem like a game that the Cows lose necessarily in. There's in the spot that they're in especially and here's my last factor. Why it's really stopped me from hitting on the Raiders.
And you say this is a factor, matter of factor whatever. The Cowboys just had a kid kill himself, right, and that's a galvanizing moment for a locker room. You know, we're in his decay.
It's a gap, but it's a gap, and so that's usually you don't have a two week gap between that.
It did just it just didn't just happen like this last you know, whatever weekend or whatever.
You no, it happened. It happened last the week before the like Wednesday, like when they were going into the bye So yeah, a good week and a half. But by the time they by the time they play the game, So I don't know, it's hard to it's hard to fact. Like if it had been like they played that Sunday, yeah, I would have loved the cows there with this because they were going you know that, you know, they all go out of town or they all plan things, so
like did it fuck up there? Did a fuck up their their terrification and now you gotta come back for a funeral like whatever. They I don't know, it seems more chaotic than just immediate like hey, let's go out. This just happened, you know, I don't know, we don't know that well.
We have also seen though, these guys are really good at compartmentalizing things and like taking that honess in on the game day and say, hey, we're gonna go playing balls off for this kid, our teammate, and you know, what are the what are the Raiders playing for at this point, to try to win six games and win me some money. I hope that's what they're playing for, but I don't know. I don't know what they're playing for, So I don't know. Man, It's and the Cowboys still
having it in front of them. I mean, the whole division's falling apart. It's not like anybody in the NFC is separating. They're not out of it. They're not out of it. They gotta go win this one. They know that this is a game, they know that they have to win. Some max motivation there and the fact they got a galvanosing moment one of their players died. I can't everything all my numbers, everything say Raiders. I might still be on the Raiders. I might still do. You
don't know. You don't know what I'm doing. But that's it is a factor. It's got to be a factor.
They're not even as good as the Red Raiders from love It. There's this this disgrace all across the country.
They're definitely not as good as the Texas, saying Red Raiders, who were always the national champions. All right, boys and girls, that was all those wins coming to the heads. All right, now it is time Forever's favorite part of the show. Some of those free I said, pixels, Longhorn, don't disappoint his baby, lay it on us. Man.
This is a tough one, pal, this is a tough one.
I tell you what.
Let's go to those Kansas City Chiefs. I talked about them. What's official number on this one?
Four?
Let's go Casey minus four minus four at them, Denver Broncos and one of the worst eight and two quarterbacks in the world, bow Nicks. Can you keep this closed?
We will see Denver wins by thirty. All right, let's go college free. It's Tennessee Tech, baby plus twenty one and a half.
Yeah.
I know they're playing Kentucky, and I.
Know Tennessee Tech. Well that's that is that like a trade school. They don't. These are mechanics. They don't have a football team, never heard of it.
They build the footballs. That's what they do there. Look, Kentucky gets up for games like Texas and Georgia, for sure, But they got Vandy and Louisville coming up in their schedule, two huge rivels. Their season is not dead. I don't expect them to be sharp here, and this has gotta be this part for Tennessee Tech. And since Tennessee Tech quarterback is better than arch anyway, so should be no
problem here for the gold Niggles. Let's go Tennessee Tech plus the twenty one and a half free pick of the Week.
I remember when I was thirteen, I used to watch like daytime television. There'd be commercials for Tennessee Tech. And now they say, hey, are you out of work? Come to Tennessee Tech and learn how to be learn a trade, be a be a mechanic, be a welder. That That's that's all I know about Tennessee Tech. And maybe I got the name on.
All right, Longhard telling about the fabulous Patreon one more time they can find all these winners. Baby, let's do a free up or another day real quick. Let's see if before we get to that the Patriots not the Patriots. We know they we know they wont Let's see how did on his I know he's he's always got fucking Oh, do you have something tonight? He always does? Let's see uh Breese Hall under sixty two and a half d
over one and a half plus touch touchdowns. Let's see I'm gonna think he won both of those.
He's got to hit the Brieese hole, honest, see him do.
Ship fifty eight yards. That's a winner.
There's a winner.
Maybe one touchdown a man hey, one on one though, baby one one has been on a fucking fire, tell him about that. But you can go get all these winners.
Yeah, speaking of c K and all those player prop winners, go to our Patreon pagepatreon dot com, slash bet, underscore f g H and joining on the funnel busting up those bookies. Both Stevens has got an up NFL package college package that's on fire, and get over there and just get those and we enjoy the people coming in on the comments section. So we look forward to that each and every time we do a podcast. So hey, stop going away your hard on money. I guess the game,
but the pros do they have any thing? Sign up, turner print and never pay a fuck against He just gets out here.
Never never was chance