I want me some Gloryhole. Yeah, Hello books and thief Bok Glory Whole podcast. Listen to Apple Podcasts, Springer SoundCloud, watch live on Facebook, Live on YouTube, live on Next, live on the Instagram live and recorded anywhere you cannot or the baby we think you just Gloryhill secret tuning in this week, I ain't my buddy long.
Something all right, I'll ride you both.
See because here we go week number ten in the NFL. And then on ten, in honor of the perfect ten, Longhorn is gonna bang a perfect ten this weekend. And no I'm not talking about Jessica Alba, but I'm gonna go plus ten units, zero units on the lost side. And if you believe that, come celebrate this perfect ten and now with me Monday night at the bar. I'll be the guy with Jessica Alba sitting on my lap. Now, both staves here that button. Whether you are here for the funny, it's a question for fun.
I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun. We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn s files, you'll be whistling symphony due to out of your assholes?
Are you out here for the money?
Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil, doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. Look at the fucking smile on my face.
Here to here, baby, you have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question that has? What a stupid question? You ask a lot of stupid questions.
My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money?
I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it.
I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where you come in.
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Partners for life so that you can bet football the right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got the TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the show, my friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting how.
Choice of the week. I drunk.
I feel right, Oh, thank you very much, sir, sirch And I am drinking a gold Star by Strapp Taint Brewery in at Springville, Utah. Nice little blonde and as with most nice little blondes, they get an above average score from me. But I'm drinking this one a night, Longhorn.
It's very apropos because we're watching right now like football game where you remember, like back in school, when you know, the kids that make good grains got good grades and they got the awards and the ribbons, and the kids you know that weren't so bright, they got the gold stars. Remember they got the gold Hey you Timmy, you get a gold Star. The gold star quarterback in the NFL
is absolutely your boy, Knicks. Because the defense, this might be the best defense we've ever seen, literally in the history of the world, all things considered, and they keep them every game. They just intercepted the ball, got it down to the thirty and they went back bonets with backers on offense, had a punt after getting the ball
on the other team's thirty. So at the end of every game, but they win, which they inevitably will somehow, some way, Sean pays like here, buddy, here's your gold star. But like everybody gets game balls, sticker helmets for all the plays, and Bonis gets the gold saw in the corner of the lot.
Well, I would like to I would like to personally give him a.
A star, a R star, and then a B star because he is awful. He is fucking retarded at quarterback and finally the bee he's gonna be benched, Like, get the fuck out of here, you kid. This we're watching one of the worst quarterbacked games. I mean, overall game is true penalties, everywhere, office is going backwards when they get the ball, turnovers, This is god awful. So all of you stuck just just terrible. This is just bad football. And vow next you are you're the head of the class.
Oh boy, should have hit the under on this one, kiddo. All right, let's get to the podcast. Now. We're gonna go in every game in the NFL in the air Tonight's and of course, of course get you paid with those free picks, as we always do. But right now we gonna get paid to do that. This week's sponsor it's our good buddies sexistelehealth dot com. Go to the doctor sucks, get a schedule, a portman, take time off work to drive there, wait for up to the hours to finally have a doctor say hey, go in the
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God, what do you think is happening right now? Excuse me?
What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for all those wins coming in the air tonight. Bber alright, boys and girls, it is time for all those ones coming in the air tonight. We're gonna start. Let's see, it's not in London, it's springzy Dutch. We're in thus
Lyndon over to Munich. For those Indianapolis coasts, Indiana Joneses fresh off they're first loss in quite some time, longhorn, and they are facing those hot Atlanta Falcons who also came off a little real heartbreaker there in New England. Stupid kicker can't make an extra point, thank you very much, you fucking dickhead. Uh And Indy is sitting at six and a half point neutral favorites, we'll say neutral favorites even though they're listed as the home team.
Yeah, oh yeah, that this is the easy call for me.
Now, Andy's coming off a bad game as far as turnovers, but they somehow were within that game one score of of you know, of tying that game up. Obviously, they had no shot in that specific game just because of the way it was going. Danny Dimes had derailed. We've had a full week to get get the trained back on the tracks, and now you're facing the Atlanta defense.
That actually off in theory. In theory, the Atlanta defense.
Pass rush might be able to give him some if the ghosts are really there, maybe they could still be there a little bit.
Denver's by the way, going backwards again, that's what they do.
But all the Atlanta injuries on their offense is kind of where I'm taking this. Last week, literally their whole offense was let me throw the ball to Drake London and that's it. Now we don't know if Sauce is gonna play a lot his game, but I have to think that he's gonna get out there and they just say, hey, see that six to five guy that they scored three touchs, just just lock him up to him. If they do that,
and we know there's gonna be a bounce back. You know, he's not gonna turn on the ball for five times Daniel Jones. So it just everything points to and he's coming off a bad loss. This is gonna be their bounce back. And I just don't trust Atlanta on the road. I don't trust them outdoors ish whatever whatever that situation is in Germany. So yeah, I'm all, I'm all Indy here, all right.
So on this one being Vegas for Whales, so Vegas had Atlanta minus one and a half preseason, I had a minus three and a half. Obviously, everybody in the world was wrong on Indianapolis. They far outseeded all of our expectations. So that's the reason for the big discrepancy there. Now the power ring is, though, still have Atlanta covering this. When the BBG has Atlanta winning this game twenty five to twenty three, the totals forty eight and a half,
So there's no call there. The reason why the BBG has a winning says, this is a terrible matchup for Danny Domes and specifically, as I was looking through the numbers, like, wow, how is this a bad matchup for him? He's having the season of his life and he has great out this, but he's not great out this bad versus one defense the entire year. The reason for that is because Atlanta plays sixty seven per single high safety and that is his worst thing than he does, and he's already blow
the league average at it. They do it, not only the Bulls, but they do it very very well. They are one of the best defenses in all the football at that So for that reason, I was like, fuck, yeah, give me Atlanta. But then, oh, but then I started digging into the trends. It's like, all right, let me check the buys. Let me check it before the buyer,
after the buye. So I went to the before the buy since twenty twenty one and no playoffs, and this is a neutral site, which we have seven games, believe it or not of this data since we've been playing
so many international games lately. If you're before the buye the neutral site, and you are the favorite six and one straight up when he was seven point three points a game, six and one ats covering by four point three points a game, but the under is one in six to the under not going over by almost eight points a game. On an average sold of forty three and a half, we're sitting at forty eight and a half. Now again, I've got it at forty eight points. It's
a no call there. But if this is really gonna be this bad a matchup for Daniel Jones and the other part of this too, the reason why I liked Atlanta is because, I mean, we all know the catalyst for this offense, obviously is the running game. That's the reason why they've been so successful in any They couldn't run it last week versus Pittsburgh very well, and then all the turnovers, which you know, once you get that many turnovers, the running game kind of takes care of itself.
It's kind of hard to get it consistency going. But if they hold true, they can't run the ball, or they run it like they normally do, which is very very good. But Atlanta with Bejon the running game it grades up flat as well, and Pennies grades out flat. So basically you're gonna get a normal Atlanta game. The big difference here is that Daniel Jones is not gonna
perform very well. I kind of do lean to that under but giving that trend, I cannot go with Atlanta as bad as I fucking wanted to, I'm not going against that trend. However, I think what we will do with this game, so it's just because I'm so frustrated since I don't get to fucking bet it like I want to. We're gonna make this the Numbers Gig Pick of the Week. Go outside, Nerd, get out, Go. I ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless chime
Man's gone, all right? So with that now, I said, the Acs six and one covered by four point three points a game. That's an average line of minus three and a half. So what we can do in this game is we can make it a seven point teaser. We're gonna take Indy up to plus thirteen and a half. We're gonna take this total up to fifty five and a half, and we're gonna bet the under. So that's Indy plus thirteen and a half total up to fifty
five and a half. Take the under. Sorry not Indy, Atlanta plus thirteen and a half and total fifty five and a half. Take the under. That's why we're gonna get at this one as the Numbers Gig Do no Long Pick of the Week. I'm so frustrated by this because again Danny Downads has been grading out spectacularly all year, and he's been performing spectacularly all year. Last week we told you we didn't really like him against Pittsburgh, didn't great out the best. But this week, but last week
he was like flat. I mean, if wouldn't been for the turnovers, to your point, long warm, they would have been fine. It's just one of those games. It's gonna fucking happen. It's the NFL. But this week, without any term, this like, so, this is the worst graad he's had, just because he does not perform well against this Atlanta system. And again Atlanta is actually really good at what they do. Atlanta's defense sneakily has been not too shabby through most
of the season. So now they've had their spots, but they've gotten had. I mean, look no further than what was it what I keep thinking it was Buffalo, but that was Carolina.
Yeah, it's not awful.
Just looking at the grades across the board, I mean it's it's not great, and there's a lot of I think there's one too. There's like three rookies starting basically, and we talked about that and some of the you.
Talked about that other preseas, You're like, they need all these hen to have like any chance. And I guess basically, Yeah, the.
Two passers are doing okay.
And Xavier watch the one I like the most safety's he's probably playing better than all of them.
Let's just look at their le We move on from this one, just looking up their cess rating.
By the way, Denver blocked a punt and got it at the twelve yard line and went nowhere and had to kick a field goal.
We remember that they're gonna win this game ten to seven.
Remember that that game, there was a game that Watson had towards the end of his like when it was just like almost done and then he blew up one of his knees or and and I remember watching that game. Yeah, and they would they would show that, like the behind the quarterback shot and you see the receivers out in the motion.
They're they're showing this there he's this quarterback's lost.
This dude's lost. There's receivers. I haven't seen someone this lost. No pressure and he's running outside into pressure.
He shook. This dude has shook Denver. You got major, major problems going forward.
I don't you know you're gonna have a good record, You're you're gonna make the playoffs. Because you're seven to two, you're probably gonna go to eight and two after this game. Major, major, major problems at quarterback, even worse like last year, he started off bad, gradually got better. This dude's lost right now, just watching, just watching some of the All twenty two, he's he's completely shook back there.
Oh, the Broncos might be in troll though, you know, just saws hurt, So maybe they're bringing backup.
In and uh oh Gino got hurt, Might might.
Have some might have some backup magic.
Who is their backup?
I don't even know anymore? Is it my boy? The Stash?
Well, I guess I'll find out.
Oh if the Stash comes in and beats but Nicks, I'm so fucking happy.
And that probably would happen.
Oh every football god alive still wouldn't make that happen for me.
No, yeah, he said he's having a hard time getting up carry Harry.
Yeah. So Atlanta eleventh overall in uh e p A. So yeah, again, they're they're performing better than we expected them on defense. So We'll see how this one plays out, all right. Moving on to those Minnesota Vikings. They're hosting those Baltimore Ravens, the the surging Ravens. Lamar's back, everybody's back, and they're sitting at They're sitting at four across the board. There is one three and a half at DK, but it's minus one eighteen and you're only paying eight cents
for that. That four points has become so crucial Longhorn in this new NFL, and I'm all like the Ravens, I definitely get down on that. What do you got on this one?
It was I mean, it was seemed like it was creeping towards four and a half at some books.
Is it flat at four across? Now there is a four and a half at bet rivers. I'm just taking some serious fucking Vikings money or something.
Yeah on this one.
I Well, what I wrote up was for today is that we if you like Baltimore, you kind of missed the boat.
And I did like Baltim some more. In this spot.
We know that we know that the Lamar versus the NFC is a huge thing. You've got Minnesota coming off a huge, huge win last week, so they're due for a comeback down to earth spot, especially with JJ McCarthy.
Who oh boy.
You know, like if you believe in this Baltimore defense coming out of that buy where they where they've looked way better and and gotten more healthy. Uh, this could be the blow up spot for JJ McCarthy. And we know that Lamar Jackson versus any defense, whether it's Brian Flores or anybody can he can kind of have his way and and really the pass rush that they have that almost can feed into what Lamar likes to do. So I'm not one hundred percent worried about that.
But he is deadly if you if you can follow in love with blitzing him, which Flora is blitzes like, it is so deadly if you don't, if you don't get him. If you get him, he'll fumble on you for sure, and you can create a lot of turnovers from more. But if he makes one step but there's no way and there's nobody there, your toast.
So yeah, I'm I'm I tend to want to be on Baltimore. The fact that it went up to four and a half at some places and takes back down that it seems like that's the line where the buyback is going to be for Sharps taking Minnesota at that four and a half mark, which is a which is a very key number, so that that makes a lot of sense. But yeah, I want to be on Baltimore, so I'm looking to get the best number. Yeah, I was gonna say that. I saw that, Kenny Pigott, how
you feel about that? Yeah, give me, give me Baltimore. You know they're they're three and five, they know they're in this. Every week is a playoff game for them, So get them, get them under four if you can. Four is my absolute latest bypoint to take Baltimore. Don't lay four and a half.
That's that's what I would say.
Yeah, I don't have anything in this game. I might have something come game day morning, but I didn't look. I didn't do really a right up on this at all, just because I do have I guess enough dated to judge JJ. But it's it's so inconsistent that I had, you know, a set of games early. I've got basically one game late. I don't know. I'm just I'm just kind of laying off them until I see more of
him work. It's like I gotta have something that I can count on that, you know, things that he does well, things he doesn't do well, and then a good matchup whether or not it's a good matchup for him or not. Plus, like you said, we've seen one game out of Baltimore out of the boy in their defense. Yes, it looked great. Great, that's one game. I gotta I gotta see more. I gotta see more. So I it's a layoff of me on this one.
Kimmy Peckett still wears the gloves, by the way, just in case you're wondering out there, if everybody's wondering, you know, it doesn't matter.
Get small hands though, long horn. You remember that it doesn't matter if you had small hands.
Well, it adds a little bit of girth the if the glove fits you, you don't. You don't bet on Cony whatever his.
Name is, Picket any small hands picket? Oh god, all right, let's move one of those my hamm of dolphins. Speaking of here we go small hands and small quarterbacks. Oh yeah, so on the on the preseason line here, I was so far off of a stupid but Vegas had them five and a half. They definitely beat me on this one, we're sitting at nine and a half. As far as they were off, I was off hitven further. The last one, however,
just worth mentioning. I had Baltimore minus five, Vegas having three and a half, so that landed right in the middle of us. So I think that I think that's fair enough. Nine and a half points, though, long Horn nine and a half points and division on the road, and you're nine and a half point favorites. This is getting ridiculous.
It is beginning.
It is beginning to get d damn digulous. And that's why this is, and I'll explain it after the drop. This is the big Dick pick of the week.
Don't pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donkey Dick, sire fucking.
We've mount Dick Dick.
I'm gonna put my dick in, all right.
So on this one, we are going two units on the plus nine and a half bo Stevis and we're doing a.
Half half unit.
We're only this half chubb, just a half chub on the money line, which is gonna be monsters. So it doesn't need to be a lot because it's gonna be a huge number. You said it, buff Buffalo coming off that huge win, huge huge win against Kansas City, and now they're laying a gigantic division number on the road down there in the heat of Miami.
I know it's not super cold.
Well, this is the highest number. I'm want to give it to you just because you got the balls.
Make this call.
I'm gonnave you plus four hundred.
He oh yeah, I love a damn. That's like, that's two units.
If they still doesn win, that's awesome. Yeah, this is just a huge division number down in the heat. Like I mean, even though it's not cold yet in Buffalo, I prefer this to be a December game Foreshore. Uh that that would be ideal. But well, if you look at the numbers. We talked about this a few weeks ago, and I don't remember the exact game, but Josh as a huge road favorite.
It's not his spot. He's two and six ats on the road as a favorite over seven. It's just not his spot.
And then you got Miami coming off of a of a blowout. It's just another trend thing, Miami coming off of a blowout. When the next game, if they're a home dog, fifteen to seven ATS, So you know, do I think.
They blow a team out and they get blown out, and cause that's what I mean. They literally won million, lost by a million, and now they're dogs.
I know they're a weird team, but yeah, I just I don't know. That's why I did two units on the nine and a half.
It is still nine and a half, right.
Yep, Okay, I just I feel good about that. Obviously, I don't feel great about them winning the game. But we've seen weird, weird shit happen in Miami in this division. Even New England was great and doing their thing. They would come down here to this fucking swamp and just fucking weird and scripting that.
Man.
Yeah, so this one is just a big old no call for me. So power Ring is great as a no call, believe it or not. At nine and a half, it's a fair number, which is why you see nine and a half literally across the board with no juice on anything. It's just the fairest number. I've got it. Buffalo win in twenty nine to twenty that's a no call as well. It's right on the number. I've got the total. The total is it fifty. I've got a grade at forty nine that's a no call right on
the number. Now, it's not a good matchup for Tuoa. It actually is a good matchup for Josh Allen, who, by the way, it's not been great now great this year versus a lot of teams. No, it's definitely not his best year. But he does great out good against this one. However, what does give me a little hope for your.
Miami covered It's hm, isn't it. Yeah, yeah, it has to be like this is the spot for him.
Yeah, this is his spot.
Now.
Buffalo grades up pretty well against run the ball too, So I mean I think they I think that fifties live to maybe go over. I've got slightly under. But again it's a no coal within anything within one.
They playing goddamn pee wee football on Denver. This is it's just I'm serious about to turn this fucking game on. I can't even this is distracting me. I can't fucking focus with with He's.
Throwing bombs and the ball's just hitting the grounds.
It's hanging up a star over there man talking about Bofield.
He's throwing the ball like when you ever see the ball get thrown up deep and literally the nobody touches it the receiver. It wasn't overthrown, it was underthrown. Nobody touched it. It just hits the ground like that, like I'm watching a goddamn pee wee football game.
It's fucking terrible.
How do you overthrow a ball when you're a mile high? Like that's God damn, I can't.
He's fucking so all right, carry on. Just I gut watching.
So I don't disagree with your pick at all. But both the numbers printed out, It's just a big old fet no call for me. I'm not gonna have anything on this game. But again I cannot. I mean, if Buffalo covers this number, I will be fucking shocked. I really will, because this is just it's ridiculous. Number is too fucking big. It's too fucking big. So I agree with you and the way you handicap. I knew you were probably coming in on Miami, and I can't disagree.
All right, Let's move on to those New York jay E t s Jeff Jets. We trade over players the way Jets ah now preseason this, Uh, this is kind of funny. So I think, oh god, I had a minus five. Vegas had a minus two and a half. They're sitting at I believe plus two and a half at this point. Yeah, plus uh plus you can actually get some flat twos, all right, A serf as a flat two, West gets a flat two. So yeah, let's call it to actually because it's a half.
Yeah, dick, all right, Well, I.
Mean you still get it to And I'm looking for more. There's only one. There's some. There's a one out there.
It's at two on mine. So I'll be, I'll be, I'll be fair with it. That's fine.
Plus I'm seeing plus one ten am I correct on money one money line.
But before we get to that, the Jets do we buy? Do we sell? Do we hold? We we? We two first round picks three years ago.
We bust out two wall pros one and offense one on defense, get rid of them.
We hired, we hire a good coach. We heard we hire a good coach. I get rid of wed a back coach, get rid of them. Aaron Rodgers bringing him, he's really good. Oh no, he sucks. Sell sell seal, get him.
This team is they do not know. They don't know what the fuck they're doing is what it is? So and they never do they just cycle through these.
Oh well, we got hope.
Now we got all these first round picks, second round pick, we fleece people.
We got two first round picks, Like, we just trade away two of the best people at their position. Do you think that you might get those people back at first Maybe?
Maybe? But this but this is their excitement. This is their super Bowl.
They they just want a super Bowl that when they make all these moves, this is when they feel the best. This is the best it gets for the Jets. If you're a Jets fan, you just want a super Bowl. You've got excitement, you've got hope. When the games happen, that's when it goes to shit. But not this week, not this week.
It doesn't have to happen. Now. Now we're feeling good. This is our bounce back spot. So Bill Stevens, find that sounder button and hit it when you get a chance, because I am doing it. I am picking against the coach now the Tennessee coaches fired. The coach I hate the most in this fucking league is Airing's overrated ass.
Glenn Eveland does not play good defense on the road. They don't play defense on the road.
And I know they lost all. I know, they lost a lot.
Of players, but this, this is an overreaction. There's too many points that have been that have been swapped. You got Dylan Gabriel on the road as a favorite. We're we're we're in law. We're in crazy land right now that this is not happening. Now, the Jets could fuck me. They could lose by ten, obviously, that could for sure happen. They're the underdogs for the reason.
As long as they can hold Cleveland the less than thirteen I feel good about.
Yeah, yeah, so yeah, this was a this was gonna be in I like the Jets kind of, you know, at a low number as a favorite in this game, and just because of the Cleveland, you know, the whole Cleveland thing. And but yeah, now that we're we're getting points, way too much of an old reaction for for players, yes, really good players, but but.
Zero too much, too much. So yeah, go Jets.
One undercent agreement. For me, this is one of my favorite plays of the week. I just hadn't made it yet because I was hoping to see those numbers keep rising again. It looks like two and a half it's hit its head. I'm hoping some more of those become widely available as all lucks. It only went out right now, so hopefully it doesn't keep going towards the Cleveland side. Although Cleveland's still taking the money currently, so we'll see
which way it goes. So hopefully it'll hopefully Cleveland continues to take the money and it well, no, I want the justice art. No, you know, we're right, Cleveland continue to take the money.
Well, yeah, you went Cleveland to take the money so you can get it. I mean, if it was at two and a half, I was going to do one unit on the two and a half, one unit on the money line. But two is kind of that dead man.
I like your I like your one ten sounder there, Yeah, thirty seven and a Half's where the total sitting. Gross. I guess what I've got it great of going under that. Why wouldn't I. I've got the Jets win this game twenty to fourteen? Can they score twenty points? God only knows? Fairly confident they could hold the Browns to fourteen though, So I like that. Both quarterbacks great out flat. Uh Here's what I don't like though, It's not a good matchup for the Jets running game. I don't like that,
but it's not a great matchup for Cleveland's running game either. Look, this should be a nasty one. Maybe there's it's gonna have to be like a special teams play or defensive.
It's gonna have to be justin fields.
Justin fields is your path to getting enough points to win this game. The pass rush should flush him out so that he can make some plays with his legs, because, let's face it, he sucks with his arm.
So yeah, he's got nothing to lose this point. But here's another reason why I really like this pick. So both these teams coming off the by and coming off the bus twenty twelve. If you were a home dog, fourteen nine and one six percent ats, if you're a road favorite thirteen fifteen to two forty six point four percent ATS. So we got trends going our way. I like the game plan going our way. I like the spot going our way. And I'm with you, it's too much.
It's just too much of an no reaction. Hopefully the just don't just totally kick us in the balls once again? Is they? They have kicked me in the balls more times this season than any other team, for sure. I keep trying to like all this is the spot. This looks like it could be. It never fucking is maybe just fucking maybe. I mean, Bryce Young beat me with thirteen points, hopefully to God, Dylan Gabel can't beat me with fourteen fucking points? We score? Can we score twenty points?
I think seventeen seventeen?
Where's my baby, Bill, hitch drop bed.
I ain't asking for the world here, I'm just asking for eight ball and two million dollars. That's seven and seventeen points.
That's it. That's it.
That back in the game.
By the way, who geno back in the game and driving, driving, actually throwing the ball forward and getting yards.
I didn't know. I didn't think you were allowed to do that in this game. You certainly can't wear an orange.
Gino smith will less Gino. But justin fields one least rug.
Yeah. I need, bitch, I need for you to do your fucking job.
God, please God, just fucking run if it's not there, just I mean, carry the ball fifteen times. Carry the ball fifteen fucking times. You'll get five yards on average every time you do it. Move the sticks, kick the field, goals, get the win.
For the love of God, all right, speaking of the love of God, Houston Jacksonville, so Houston. Those Houston Texans with an H don't know if their quarterback is gonna be in on this one. I feel still hanging on as the favorite here. Minus one across the board pretty flat. Surkha's got a pick, so they're heading harder than anybody else. But that ain't much of a hedge Longhorn, to be honest with you. Now, the preseason line, obviously that's with
the quarterback. So let's think about this preseason line with the quarterback. In all things being equal, I had Jacksonville plus six. Vegas had a plus three and a half. Let's say Vegas is more right than me. And we're looking at four and a half points from uh CJ to Davis Mills. It seems rich for as bad as CJ has been playing. But we saw, we all got a good reminder of Davis Mills last week, and how fucking on He's not even an NFL quarterback. Yeah, we can say CJ is not having a good year, but
he at least is an NFL quarterback. Davis Mills is not an NFL quarterback at all in any capacity. And this Jacksonville defense. Longhorn has been heating up and heating up and heating up. His pastor has been heating up. Dude, I don't know how. I don't know how you get back Davis Mills. I really just don't, especially at one point, I don't know what we're doing.
Yeah, I don't. I don't know how either.
I don't know why it's gone down to pick when it's it's it's gonna be Davis Mills.
I mean, I mean that that's I mean.
Seven and a half by the way, another just gross ass fucking.
I was kind of way to get like the two to two and a half with Houston and then and fire on that, and we're we're down to pick.
Like I don't I don't like. I don't like this at all.
So I'm staying away for this until I get some some more information. But it just and this one if it gets to Houston Houston plus two, I mean, like taking t L as a road favorite against this defense just doesn't feel right. But then yeah, you but then you have to feel good about Davis Mills on the other side. And I don't want any Look, I'm not gonna be bet in this game. So we don't have
to spend a lot of time on it. It's it's a kind of a stay away from me and and the Houston Texans broke my heart last week when they were for sure gonna beat this fucking shitty ass Denver team. If Stroud doesn't get hurt in the first quarter, it's not a doubt in my mind that they beat Denver.
And until my mind as Denver makes Las Vegas, I.
Told you don't win this game like it's what's looking like.
Or or Bow is gonna get He's gonna throw screen pass here in a second that goes for seventy yards and they'll win seventeen to seven.
He is fourteen for twenty five per one hundred and twenty seven yards.
Is that good?
God?
All right, let's move on to those. Let's move on to a game that should be an entertaining one. Those Tampa Bakers coming fresh off the BA House and nose upstart surprise, kick me in the balls, New England.
Super Bowl preview question mark question mark.
Well maybe so, maybe so we'll see, all right. Preseason line on this tack down quite a bit. I had tam a minus five. Vegas had a minus four and a half or sit at two and a half. Obviously huge upgrade. It's all all the upgrade is on the New England side. Obviously from the preseason look ahead to this, uh total sitting at forty eight. Holy shit, we gotta
we got a total in the forties. I swear to god, I thought we were done seeing totals in the thirties like four years ago, unless it was a snowstorm or half a team died. And we've got totals in the thirties all up and down the fucking card. But at least this one is a real fucking It's a real fucking number forty eight. So what you got on this long one?
Oh?
I was trying to find I'll have to pull that up whenever you're doing that.
I think.
I think Tampa Bay is getting Guardeki backed if that's how you pronounce his name, the offensive tackle, so they should be healthy there.
I know that.
Godwin is ruled out so they're not getting him back, which they hope.
They said he's not going to come back for like another four weeks.
Right, so, but they are healthier than they were coming off the by and obviously with New England, you're concerned with New England. They haven't had a letdown spot, which we've kind of or at least I have certainly tried to find that letdown spot at times during this winning streak.
Just hasn't happened.
Let down. Last week in Atlanta, d May didn't play his best game.
That was.
For sure, well for sure, but it did take you know, three touchdowns to one guy and kind of throw up. But they just keep winning, is the point, and you know they're but but this is a huge step up in competition and the only win that they have really on their entire board is the Buffalo win, which was which was very impressive. So I want to look this is this is gonna be my fid in the middle. You know, there's I'm on a lot of teachers this week.
I'm not playing back the other sides on very many of them, if any, but this one I will be. So I'm gimme Tampa. Where the points are, you know, minus two mins two and a half. Well, I'll see what this line does. Because I've already teased up New England to the eight and a half. I would love to see this tick.
Down to one and a half on Tampa.
Maybe you buy down to one, maybe you just bust out the money line at that point. But I'm gonna be trying to play both sides of this game because I think Tampa in a close game, which I think we think this is gonna be because it's two really good teams. You know, you got Baker in a close game. That's kind of the spot you want to be at.
It's just just that's just what he thrives on and h But but since I do think it's gonna be close game and I think they can keep it close, it's the plus eight and a half on the teaser side feels really good.
Yeah, So I was just looking up their schedule. This is gonna shock you because it just shocked me and you just kind of mentioned it. New England per dB A has played the hardest schedule so far in the National Football League.
How they've beaten Tennessee the Saints.
How Buffalo's played the thirty the second hardest schedule in all of so interception brownicks by the way, Oh wait wait, oh, I'm sorry, easiest, my bad numbers backers. They played the schedule Buffalos played the second easiest, cause yeah, they played the easiest.
Guy about to say, because they have played all the worst teams.
Yeah, I knew, I knew that had to be wrong. I was like, I can't feel right. Tampa Bay, on the flip side of that, has played the seventh hardest schedule, which we mentioned that in the preseason, like, hey, don't be surprised that Tampa Bay team starts out possibly two and four with this early schedule, because it is a fucking murderers row. They've walked out of it in handsome fashion with the seventh hardest schedule. Going forward, Tampa Bay
has the seventh easiest schedule. And again we talked about the preseason, the back half after they're by this is really where Tama Bay was supposed to start rolling, Like this division was supposed to be kind of middling. They're kind of like, oh my god, what's wrong with Tampa Bay and blah blah blah blah, Hey, just hang on, don't pay if they start down you know too early, they'll be all right. Well, they've been better than alright, and now they're supposed to be on easy Street for
the rest of the year. So your Super Bowl preview, at least on the NFC side, could come to fruition there, my friend, because Tampa Bay has gotten a lot of easy cakes in front of them, and like you said, they're gonna get healthier than being getting healthier, and they're not gonna get Mike Evans back. That is a big chink in that armor.
He could come back for the playoffs, though, right I don't know.
I don't know.
I think I think if he I mean, they're gonna wait the playoffs, so maybe it's a chance he comes back at some point this season.
I do like your teaser here though, and I wanted to bet Tampa Bay. I couldn't just because of the spot and then with the numbers. Now, the power rings that have Tampa Bay and my power rings has been very good this year. Just straight up, you just bet them, we would definitely be up on the year instead of where we're at total forty eight. I've got it going quite a bit under that, which kind of scares me when I see the numbers this far apart. But I've
got it a tie game Tampa Bay twenty to twenty. Now, this is a good matchup for Baker, it's a flat matchup for Drake May, but it's a bad matchup for both these running games here. So you know, this New England secondary, we've talked about it and talked about it, talked about a nauseom. It's not very good. Pretty much everybody makes yards on them, sports points on them through the secondary. The run defense has been stout. It's going
to continue to be here. We have seen the Sampa Bay offense sputter at times when they can't get the running game going, but we've also seen the same thing for New England. So that's the reason why I do think the under is really in play here. That actually might make my card. And if you look at the spot since twenty twenty one, coming off off the buy home favored again twenty two to twenty eight and two, that was the spot we talked about for Detroit last
week obviously got them. Tampa Bay is in that same spot average line of six and a half or sitting at two and a half on this one. So that gives you a little bit of hope though, because the cover line is flat on that so at six and a half. So technically because they're thirty nine thirteen to seventy five percent straight up winning by six points six points a game for six and a half points a game, so you could see a Tampa cover here. I like
your teasers. I really like this teacher spot. I don't see them winning by margin, So I think it's a close game field goal. If I had to bet it, straight up, give me Baker less than a field goal at home almost always, even against a really good coach defense, because again, there are holes in the secondary, and Baker has shown that he can exploit that. He's done it
all season long against a lot better competition. So I'll lean on the competition factor and the fact that I can trust Baker at home and Drake mayhe is on the road. He's still young quarterback. He's having a great season. Not knocking him at all, but you know, situationally, I'll take Tampa Bay there on a lean. Kind of really like that under the long worn I kind of really like that big number.
It's a big number.
It's a big number. All right, Let's move on to those Carolina Panthers game of the week hosting those New Orleans Saints.
My Carolina Panthers.
That's right, that's your Carolina Panthers. He's claiming them again. Yeah, funny on this one. I'm I was quite a bit off. I'm in New Orleans derailed. I knew they were bad, but Carolina's better than I thought they were gonna be. They said at four and a half, it's sitting at five and a half currently, pretty much across the boards. What do you got on this one long morning?
Yeah, I'm gonna be on Carolina in this game. It's kind of one of those pick or poison spots that we've been talking about. It's like, you know, Carolina is all of this, although at home they're way way better than they are on the road. They also don't cover, so they just they're not They do not covered and not a covering team, although they.
Are football every week. Though, that is my question, who Carolina because they're playing the worst team in football this week?
So yeah, I mean, I mean that helps New Orleans can't stop the look, it really shouldn't matter with brysh This is not gonna be a Bruyshong game. This is gonna be just run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, by the way, which makes a lot of sense because the Saints can't score.
We don't know how bad the Saints quarterback is. If this was.
Rattler and you're getting what is it five and a half? The current Like that's a rattler line. For sure, you're gonna be probably leaning towards New New Orleans on that one, right, it'd probably be what what I mean, was it a two point difference in these guys?
Maybe the pre the preseason line was four and a half. I gotta I gotta think it's to that.
Okay, Yeah, so yeah, can can Tyler I fucking suck shuck?
Can he just go out there and ball against a good defense?
Now, let's let's call Carolina good deal a good defense.
Oh then there you go, so like so, but you know the NFL, anything can happen. Yeah, it could happen. I'm not counting on it. I'm not betting to let.
Them go shut down a really good offense in Green Bay on the road, on the road and like a million turnovers. It was like love was throwing the ball over the place. They couldn't get.
First owns, the play to play.
They're sound, they're never at a position you don't see the just busted plays against them.
And they're good.
And here's the thing, like a like a defense that fights hard, plays hard. If you're losing, you'll start to get the give up n they're five and four, they're they're you know, I know Tampa Bay is kind of running away with this division, but they keep doing this. Win this game for six or four, you're in the wild card position for sure. Yeah, it's it's no give up on defense, is what I'm saying. So, Tyler Schuck, you're in. You're in for a rough one.
Could you imagine what the conversation would be if if Tampa Bay season went the way we thought it might go and they would have lost against those really good those you know, coin flip games.
Really good teams if they're both five and four, yeah, or Tampa sitting at four and five, yeah or four whatever like yeah.
This this will be a hold different conversation. Right now. I know I don't have much in this game because I don't have anything great shuck on except in fact, these fucking sucks. But I will say this, this is the absolute worst spot possible for the Saints. I mean, for yeah, for the Saints since twenty twenty one. If you're going on the by and you're a road dog, twelve and twenty two eight cs not covering, not covering by four point two points per game on an average
line of five point eight. We're sitting at five and a half. They're losing this game on average by ten points nine to twenty five. Straight up. Yikes, fucking yikes. If you had like a pleaser, I wouldn't never call a pleaser for Carolina. But this is one of those situations where I think if New Orleans goes down like this, they're going down all the.
Way and not and not that it matters a lot.
New or traded one of those first round offensive linemen and during the during the trade deadline.
To the charters, he wasn't good.
But the guy that they're putting in there is like, I mean, it's a forty two point six on PFF, so he's even worse. But the signal to the team is, oh, there's yeah, they can they can get in the thirties. I've seen people in the thirties. Now, what is the signal to a team that's one in eight?
I don't know, I mean, but like you know, it's it's probably not we don't think things.
Are going well? What do you mean things aren't going well?
What?
We won one?
Why didn't the Saint's trade for Sauce Gardener I didn't give up two first, I don't know if it's you could have gone all in.
Well management, you don't have any faith in us? Is bullshit?
Now I will say, why the fuck is Alvin kamaras? They're still on this team? I did.
I did that video in the in the preseason that Kamara was either going to go to the the Chicago Bears or the Dallas Cowboys, because at that time I thought that the Dallas might be.
At least in the hunt. And we'll see it.
But yeah, why is he still there? Why are you still on the Saints? It makes no sense. They should have got whatever they can get for him. Maybe he doesn't want to go. Maybe he said, I don't don't trade me.
I like it.
Who knows he likes the food, man, it's good cooking down there in New Orleans. Why would you want to leave it?
I guess all.
Right, let's move on to those Chicago bess post of those New York football giants. Now this game, Uh, let's see where we're at. Preseason, I had, oh god, I had Chicago minus seven. Vegas had a minus five and a half. They're sitting at four and a half currently across the board, bothought us in at five. If you like the Giants shop around a little bit, but literally that's the only five left on the board. So it
opened at three and a half. World Open immediately took all the Bears money sent it four and a half, and it looks like we're banging its head on the top. If you look at where the money's coming in now, it is currently now coming back in on the Giants. So we definitely have hit the top of the market, long Horn. So four and a half the best you're gonna get. I feel confident from that on the Giants. If you want them, you better grab them at that number. What do you like?
Yeah, I don't.
I'm not sure why. I don't have a reason to not be on Chicago here, I really don't. This is gonna be a weather game, definitely cold, possible snow, and we've got the running game of Chicago, which if you're not paying attention that this running game, and with the struggles of Detroit, it's weird how Detroit's having problems with their running game and Chicago's becoming one of the juggernauts
running the ball. Maybe Ben Johnson is more than just a crazy plays and and throw the ball around the ard.
Maybe he has a.
Little screen pass to your quarterback.
Caleb had two receptions last week, so the crazy ones in there, they're.
Crazy was there.
But yeah, no, I I want I want to be on like I want to fade the Giants so bad right now. And I know that Jackson Dart has he's proven that he's going to be the quarterback going forward, at least in the immediate future. But you can only lose so many key players, and you can only keep losing so many games where at some point that the just the rails come off the pass rush that is.
Their forte on the defensive line.
You know, you keep losing games that maybe you lose half a step on on that one to go get the quarterback. I don't know, man, Just for me, it's all Chicago. The fact that the line is kind of bouncing back and forth and hitting his head as you said, that makes me have some pause because you know, I don't like to go against you know, uh, sharp money necessarily, but yeah, I want to.
I mean the sharp money came in early all on Chicago to get it to four and a half. Now that's where it's sitting there, So you you probably have some sharp five back now, you know, because if you got in at Chicago minus three and a half, all the sharps, they're probably fiddling.
In the middle here on those on those key numbers. Yeah, I can see that. So yeah, I'm gonna be on Chicago. Oh, in my last point.
Vegas is mega fun, is what I think.
My last point, And let me flip it to Chicago. On defense, Yeah, I don't know what is. I don't know what is what their first names are because I've TJ Edwards and and Edmunds the linebackers for Chicago, and I can't remember Evans first name. I'm I apologize, but basically my point was Jackson Dark, him running and creating plays with his legs is kind of been like everything for this team. Him and Scatabo had some things in the passing game blah blah blah, but like right now,
it's basically Jackson Dark creating plays. You got two highly highly athletic linebackers who each could play spy on Jackson Dart and I and they're both great out very well this year. So that's really what I want to see. Are they are they greating out well? They both are. I think that one of those will take away that scrambling ability for the Giants, and I just don't see how they score. And now I know the Giants defens is not good, but it is Jackson Dark creating plays
with his legs that's leading to the point. So if they can minimize that with it with good linebacker spies, I just it's all. It's all Bears for me.
So power Rings got the Bears. I've got it graded over the forty six and a half. But the weather, obviously you got to keep an eye on that. But I've got Chicago win this game twenty six to twenty three, which would be in the cover for the Giants. The reason because this won't be the best matchup for Sugar Britches. He greis up flat and it's actually really good matchup for Dark. Chicago's so bad against the past they are twenty ninth and success rate against the past they're awful, awful, awful.
But on the flip side of that, you've got the dead ass last defense against Russian sucess rate the Giants. They gained the Bears game three points to the VPG on the running game. In this game, they're gonna be able to run and run and run and run some more and continue to run. And we've seen this's Ben Johnson offense, whether be in Detroit or be in Chicago. If you get a matchup like this for the running games working, you know you're not gonna be able to
stop them from scoring. So it is gonna be off. It's gonna be up to Dart to cover this spread. He's not being able to run on this defense at all. But the Giants. The Giants running game also grades up plus one two because the Bears stink against the fucking run as well. Now they're not as bad as the Giants, they're not good, and they're worse against the Giants in the past. So dark does have an avenue for successor they do have an avenue to put up some points.
That's why it's going over grading over again. Weather permitting, you gotta keep an eye on that. But if the weather does get bad, Chicago's going to just be able to run and run and run until they hit their head on the goalpost multiple fucking times. Because there is nothing There is nothing as bad as the Giants defense. Is not just that it's a matchup two, it's a terrible matchup scheme wise, there is literally nothing the Giants are gonna be able to do to stop Chicago for
running the ball. I don't even know who their best running back is or who gets the majority of the carries. I don't do the fucking player props, but I know ckv all over it. All I'm saying is you got some daily ship out there, grab a Chicago running back, do your research. Whoever gets the most shit or whatever, they're gonna they're gonna. They're all gonna have success. They're all gonna have success.
Well, the Monong guy kid is kind of and he fits that hammer that that I was talking about, and he's he's kind of taken over.
Him's two hundred yards from scrimmage, I think last week. But c J.
Gardner Johnson the Bears. You're talking about the Bears being bad on on in the secondary. They're so bad at c J. Gardner Johnson. I think he's his eighteenth team in three years that he's been on. So that's how bad they are in the secondary.
They got to bring in c. J.
Gardner Johnson, now, which when he's good, he's good. When he's bad, he's so fucking bad.
Well, they're bad at the unit period.
I know it's worth it's worth a shot there.
There is an avenue for New York to cover this game we talked about last week. You know, they're still pesky man, they're still passing. You know, the forty nine ers game got away from him. That was just a bad spot for them. It was a good spuffer, san fran.
I don't feel great about the Land of put Like it's just because because yeah, the Giants are just they just don't seem to ever go away.
But I can't. I can't.
And it was a decent matchup for the mcookie monster last week versus John. It's not a good match up for Caleb. So like it's gonna have to be this running which they're gonna be able to run the ball fine, but like if Caleb can't just at least contribute, then it's gonna be tough for them to score again. Cover this number because the Giants are gonna be able to move the football against Steff, they are gonna be able to score the ball. We've seen Jackson dark, he's got
some guns from to him. He makes plays. He is gonna be able to make plays in this game.
So I.
Perform his numbers.
Ten to seventh final.
Do I get any credit for calling that like.
An hour and a half ago, I mean you should. This is I'm not kidding this.
They go under though, did it go under?
This might be the worst football game I've everyone Raiders covered. You think they almost covered? If if Denver?
Yeah, without scoring without scoring point, without scoring a point, they almost covered.
Like this is what is Denver gonna do? We'll talking about baby.
Those Broncos are eight and to they're coming.
This is pathetic.
This is this is pathetic. Drops on bone next sorry ass.
See yeah, you're you're let's see looking for sorry drops.
Yeah, this guy shucked. He fucking shuts.
Oh god, here's uh Sean Payton after drafted, immediately regrets this.
Yeah, and and here's here's everybody when they talk about bonus.
Retard, he was a guitar.
He was a rettard.
All right, let's move on to you know a good football team. They'll Seeattle Seahawks. They are hosting those Arizona midgetless Cardinals. Thankfully for them. I wish the mission would have been in there. We probably would won that game of money. Not long horn almost since Jacoby Brissette came in. I don't know, they're scoring twenty five points game. They looked like a real football Who knew that if he threw the ball to your best player, I don't know, good things could happen.
He might half he can't fucking see them. And I'm not I'm not even doing that to be like it's it's it's a real thing.
Now it's over real thing.
I mean Marvin Harrison literally had his best half of his entire career again against the Cowboys secondary.
Ok.
Yeah, he's played bad teams with Kyler and hasn't done that like this this it's he sucks the color things done. He got sent to the eye on are I are it's a fake?
I are? Uh.
He was supposed to have a chance to play last week against the Cowboys, and then all of a sudden they make the announcement Brissett's gonna be our starting quarterback.
Oh yeah, we gotta put color on on the hour.
Bullshit, he's he's His career with the Cardinals is done. I would never pick him up anywhere. Like the book is out on him. You cannot have a quarterback that short and that little.
It just he's done.
Amazing with what he's had, Like he's been a starter for like what six years now, that's amazing.
Yeah, it's not just that though the book on him always was he was not a studier. Yes he wasn't. He wasn't a you know, Brady and Manny and all the all the greats and Breeze tiny average.
So you would think if you're five to eight, maybe you do a little studying to to like you know, you know, maybe you try to like overcome.
But now he's like, nah, I'm gonna play some call of duty. I'm gonna roll out there five to eight. I can't see anybody over the line, So I'm gonna scram around and do little circus midget circle and maybe I'll maybe I'll find somebody. Maybe I don't, Maybe I don't, but like it's just it's done.
I don't know. I didn't mean to cut you off. I don't know if you have any more set up on this, but yeah, he sucks so bad.
No, just like you just hear those guys talk about being, you know, a student of your craft, and those are the best that ever did it, that had all the physical building. Not Drew Brees perhaps, but even the guys that have all the physical building in the world, six foot five, fucking big arms, tough, strong, I mean, like those guys were just they talk about being a student of the craft and being so dedicated to and it
takes that to be great. Like you said, he's five eight, and yeah, his athleticism and all his midget shuffling saved him for a long time, won him a lot of football games that made a lot of highlights, you know, and quite frank, over the years, made us a lot of money. I mean it used to be coler as adult collers, a dog, collars a dog. That was a spot. We made a lot of money on that. And he at some point, though, did you just lose a little bit of that athleticism? And all it takes in this
league is half a step. It's all it taste. You lose half a step, which is another reason Lamar does is still so amazing because this many years in he's still just as quick, just as explosive as he ever has been, Like he hasn't lost anything, which is fucking incredible. First of all, I don't even know how that's possible. He's a unicorn, But yeah, collar when you're tiny you lose half a step, you already fucking can't see your toast. So all right, on this one, Seattle is laying six
and a half. I believe across the board opened at six went six and a half. Now I say that it is climbing. It is climbing. Juice coming in on six and a half up to seven at Heritage minus won twenty six and a half at DK it's already at seven at circa flat. So we're we're looking at going to seven here, boys and girls. So we'll call it six point seven right now. But what you got on this one one more?
Well, he can just keep on climbing because this is the first of two Danger's game with a week, all right, so we can we can call both these I usually go Maverick goose.
We're gonna do them both goose because both of.
My uh danger zones deal with backup quarterbacks, so we're going with them. We're gonna just two backup two gooses, uh on this one. And yeah, with Brissette, we talked about it. They look like a real team. They actually look like a real.
Team, and they.
Score and and you know, football is football is such a you know, everything has to work together offense defense. Most teams when everything is flowing, everything's going together, this might I think Arizona's gonna be the most buy on team for me the rest of the year.
And for a few a couple of reasons. Number one, the Bsette thing.
They look at a real team running the ball, even with their third and fourth running backs Bam Knight and De Mercado, they're just fucking chewing up people in the running game. And he talked about, you know, Marvin Harrison actually being what he was always as a wide receiver, and then Trey mc bride's being a beast no matter what.
So this is a real offense now, uh. And then on the defensive side, Walter Nolan, Walter Nolan, Walton Nolan. Nine percent of you people don't know who that is. He played his first game last week, the game as a rookie. This dude is just.
Think of Warren Sapp type defensive just disruptor defensive tackle.
Who get I'm probably gonna get this wrong. I'm not gonna ole.
Miss yeah ole, miss very good, very good.
And in the preseason when I was flirting with picking Arizona to win this division, before I came to my senses and remember that they have a midget quarterback, and why would I ever do that? It was it was because of this defense, and and now we're starting to see this this defense coming to form. He's kind of like the last piece along with getting healthy on the back end. They had some injuries they were dealing with in the secondary in the eard of the year. That
that that these players have come back. I think Arizona is one of my favorite second half of this season. Play on teams and I like them.
I'm going two units on the here's the deal though, it's it's steam into seven, correct, But you're not gonna give me seven? Are you?
You know what I'm feelings?
All right? Then give me two units on the seven. Give me give me who you know what? Seattle loses games at home, This is not their spot. Give me give me one unit on the on the money.
Line too, because like we've seen Seattle, if they're gonna lay a dud, it's been at home. They've been dominant on the road, they lay duds at home. Give me a unit on the money line for Cardinals.
Two right, uh no? To sixty three?
Two sixty three and I will look up their other loss because I can't'm drumning black. I know they lost in Tampa and oh Sam Fran at home, so mother losses have been at home.
That was the first was the first first game. It was the first game they always like, I think that's two years ago. They've lost to San Fran. Oh game like opening game at home two years ago.
So you uh take it away and tell me how you kind of gig around poo poo all on my danger Zone pick of the week.
No, definitely not get a poopo. Now the power Regan's dos does does have Seattle, but again a lot of status with Kyler in there too. Now forty four and a half, what we're sitting at the total I've got it actually Seattle twenty two, twenty two, so tyd So I think Longhorns plus seven definitely has legs. I like that bet a lot. Actually a couple of reasons why
Number one Sammy d I don't know. He might be the MVP, might be the best quarterback going right now in football, but this is not a good matchup for him, and it's all matchup base. If you talked about Arizona's defense, it is getting better. However, you know, it's still not grading out great, especially drop back success. For there's still twenty fourth in the league. Now they started towards the bottom,
so they are getting better. But this particularly matchup base against what sam Ronald does well and what Arizona's defense does well and does the most, not a good matchup for him. So he loses the point and a half of the BBG. Jacoby sent grades out his flat and the other part that I think that it gives credence to the Arizona pick is that you know, Seattle Gray's out flat running the ball against this defense. Now Arizona doesn't grade out particularly whether they lose half a point,
which is not much to the BBG. In the running game, I think they'll be able to run it well enough if Jakob just goes out there and plays like here's how, here's how Arizona covers. They just play their game. If they play the normal football game. Again, long run is a bad matchup for Sammy d. So if they play the normal football game, I think Arizona absolutely covers this game. I've got a great out two. I need to hear
that part. So actually graded out of the tie, which is a no call in the total forty four and a half because Seattle not only the same to D grade out bad, Seattle doesn't grade out well to run the ball here too. So if they can't run the ball and it's a bad matchup for Sammy D, they'll still score their points because they're I mean, Jackson Smith and Jigbob. I don't know this kid. He's unstoppable, like literally unstoppable.
Now you can't ninety two point seven PFF grade number.
Two that the other the day has, like the he's the number one yards per scrimming yards per route run receiver. Like he's trending like towards all like an all time yards per route run season. It is fucking insane what he's doing. Every time he runs a route, it's like over three yards, which is unheard of in the NFL. That's called that's college shit. That's like college Marvin Harrison shit.
Like that's video game bullshit. Every time you run a route, you gain three not I don't care if you throw it to me, not every time I run a route. That's what it can't like, So anything three yards is insane.
In now they now Seattle did make a nice little trade at the deadline. That's gonna do well from them going forward. Shahed, Oh, I forget, we forgot to talk about that. With the Saints, Rashid Shahed the wide receiver, deep deep threat guy, they had one of.
Their one of their receivers.
That's a nice little pickup and another nice little dump for for New Orleans.
So but as we're saying, with wide receiver editions mid season, it generally takes a game or two to kind of work into the scheme. Well, unless you're like, unless you're like a DK or something like that, just go out and physically dominate, Like, hey, just throw me the balls. I'm bigger than this game.
Maybe so, maybe so.
But with with a guy like Shahed, you're one you pick up him not just because of the production he's gonna do when he gets the ball, but he also clears space for for things that you want to do uh an underneath because he's he's got such the deep threat.
So I hope it doesn't happen in this game. But he's he is a burner, he's.
A he's an elite, take the top off the defense type guy that's gonna should open things up in the middle of the field for Sam Darnold, who is number one PFF quarterback in the league ninety three point five.
Yeah.
I mentioned that. I mentioned stars like he might be the best coy rrect layer, he might be the MVP, but it's not a good matchup for him, So I like it.
I hope you're right.
I like that we've been pretty good on collin these matchups throughout the year. As far as who's gonna have good games and bad games? Now, then't always work out for us and spread because football go how football go. But I don't like the fact that my power rings are on Seattle. But again that's with a lot of Kyler data mixed in there, so you gotta take that from what it's worth. I like the way Arizona's playing right now. I'm gonna let this keep and I don't
care that all the money's coming in against this. I'm gonna let this keep. Going to these sevens get again. It's seven flat at circle right now, it's seven at playing gym seven it heritage and it's juice six and a half, so it's going to seven. So if you like Arizona like we do, and you don't have seven cent in front of you just wait, it's coming, it's coming your way. So again, sometimes you don't like money
coming against you and you don't really understand it. I kind of understand it in this one a little bit because it's it is Jacouber said, can go out there and play that game against a good defense in Seattle, and he just played against the worst defense of all time in fucking Dallas.
And not been good at home though, like like for whatever reason they're they're at home. It's not a it's it's a maybe that's just a short sample and it's fluky and that'll even out. But at home they've just not been a dominant defense. Now as far as the line moves, maybe one of the reasons. And and I completely ignored this trend just because the persett This the Perssette has them looking like a completely different team. And this trend is is almost all well almost certainly all
Kyler Murray. But in this division since twenty twenty two, Seattle is seven to one ats versus Arizona. So Seattle's dominated this this matchup against Kyler though. See, so this is one of those things like that's you don't want to go against that, but that's what Kyler. You know, sometimes those things don't matter, that matter what quarterback. They just teams dominate other teams.
It's so freaky to in this division, like the NFC West, it's like a it's almost like a hierarchy of who eat too.
We'll get back. We'll get to that later on for sure.
So it is weird, but it is a fucking thing for whatever reason, this NFC West, it's like a Hui too in this division. You're right, Seattle does eat up Arizona. I remember last year. I think we were on opposite sides. I had Seattle at home when Gino was there. It was like a three point spread them versus Coller and that was the game that Seattle won, like twenty three to six or whatever. It was like they Arizon. I've never even scored a touchdown.
I guess, oh, you mean you mean Kyler cost me money. I can't believe it.
I can't believe it either. Gino won me money, which uh he did. He did that for me last week, and if I would have bet on it or not, he would have won me money again, So I can't talk about Geno right now. Washington dance skins as they are for the rest of the year.
The dead Skins.
Uh, yeah, they're dead and they are They're a corpse walking. Let's see this game, you know what, it's got back down to its openers. So we're we get off.
You want to explain that one to me? I can't.
I got no explanation here, boss. It's actually seven and a half at Driftings. I know money is still coming in on the Skins, still coming in a lot of Detroit hat in this market. Ro what well, they hate you, they hate these lines.
I can't, I have no I'm staying off this game so much. I won't even put Detroit in at a teaser right now because I don't know what the fuck's going on with the line.
Who the fuck is betting on the Redskins right now? And why I mean, and why.
Detroit coming off a loss, embarrassing loss, so everything.
Off a fucking game that not only they get embarrassed, their coach literally got their franchise quarterback destroyed.
His season probably over, but that but the embarrassing loss part be a reason at least for the way I handicapped him to look towards them.
So but you also have, like you do the in blocker room thing too, Like, you gotta know those players are pissed. Dan Campbell, you got it though, the fucking Maden everybody on TV's been yelling at for a fucking week, calling an idiot. He had to get at the podium and say that was my fault. He got away from me. How does it get away from you? You're down by almost thirty points or four minutes left. Why is he out there? How could they get away from you?
His arm almost got away from his body, like detached completely. So like, yeah, no, everything in my heart and soul tells me to pound Detroit minus eight is telling you pound Detroit on the teaser.
I can't explain it. So until if this ticks back up, if it starts.
Going back the other way, eight and a half, eight, eight and a half, Okay, that's gonna make me feel better.
I know Detroit at seven. Yeah, No, I needed to go back up. The market needs to go back up if it's gonna keep going down. No, but I'm not.
I'm not just like, oh yeah, everybody's betting on Washington, So now I can tease. No way, I needed to go back up for me to feel good. Teasing back in but like.
Just.
You gotta think t is gonna win this game.
I mean, okay, I.
Mean if you get it one as opposed to which is a big deal now in this NFL. Like I don't know that to me.
To me at least on teasers, I like catching the the favorite on the way up, like like it opens at seven seven and a half, you bang it in right then, and then it closes at eight eight and a half. Nine versus your oh now it's coming down. Maybe I don't know, especially especially because this is not a teaser spot.
You don't tease favorites road favorites down. So it's not wongs. It's not a long spot. Not a long spot.
Yeah, that that's That's what I don't like is I don't understand it, and we don't like betting on things we don't understand. Now, through the numbers, the total this was forty nine and a half. I've got it going over. I've got Detroit winning this game twenty nine to twenty three. So the Skins would definitely cover that for Bssett or number set for Mariota, which I've got an update on him to grade it. It's a flat matchup for him. This is the spot for golf like golf should have.
I don't know, maybe not his best game, but one of his best games of the season in this matchup, this is absolutely a matchup that he destroys against this defensive Skins played, he gains three points of the VPG. The Skins running game is flat, the Lions running game has been struggling. It actually gains a half a point here, which leans even more credence to the fucking golf spot because you know, when he can run the ball, get
the play action going, it's deadly. I mean, it's almost unstoppable. Now. The reason why I don't love the oh is just because this track is so sloppy in Washington. It's such a slow track. It's hard to get games to go over fifty points here, especially after October. Once we get in November. On that East coast and that sloppy track in Washington, it is fucking hard to score a lot of points without just tons of turnovers, fumbles, bullshit or
whatever going your way. But just if it was a regular game without any of that factored in, I've got Detroit winning about six. That doesn't quite cover. But again, golf should eat here, so again for the fantasy thing. I like golf a lot to put up some really good numbers here. I don't see any way this Resicans defense stop them from scoring at even on the sloppy track, at a minimum twenty five to twenty seven points. I don't think that Mariota can put that up against this defense.
So yeah, it's I can't lay eight points for Detroit, and certainly now that's slamming down. This is a spot I was looking to play a big favorite again.
This is a seventy point seven percent cover team coming off an embarrassing loss.
Yeah, I guess a dechected team. Who knows. Now this is like this is the dream crusher Sam season is.
A slam spot for Detroit and the line and all the sharps are on the other side. Stay I'm just gonna watch it, stay away and see what the fuck I'm missing on this one.
Yeah, when Detroit was about twenty, I mean like, oh god.
Here's another Frankie.
Frankie Louvu maybe their best player on defense suspended because he can't he can't stop tackling people illegally and he's he's been fining so much for the hip drop tackle or whatever that they're finally said, these fins ain't working. You're suspended for a game. Like maybe their best player on defense, he's gonna.
Be out linebacker. He's only good linebacker.
They have all the sharps. Can't can't get enough. They can't get enough for the rest of us. So whatever, Maybe I'm missing it.
Yeah, it's it's a confusing one, that's for sure. All right, Let's move on to those San Francisco forty nine, those those Los Angeles Rams. Now this one we're sitting at four and a half across the board. Oh god, damn, what is doing well? BAA took some heavy fucking uh rams money. Apparently they're at five and a half. What the fuck are we doing?
Whoa what? Oh my good?
Yeah, but four and a half across the board. We'll grade four and a half pretty flat. So Rams was four and a half? What he got?
Yeah, let's give you a little two seconds. There you go, there's.
Two seconds of the dangers. This is the other dangers on the week, the other goose. Because we got another backup quarterback, not no Mavericks on the day. I know, I know, do I we? We know that Shanahan liked him in the draft. We know that he wanted to play him and I don't think you see party anymore this year. I really don't, because, like if they keep hanging these games and he keeps playing the way he plays, which.
Is not good man, kid just can't get it real.
Yeah, turf fils turf toe is a rough one. But if he accuse, you know what, if they they're six and three and and San Fran they kind of have the number in this uh. In this matchup, we talked about the NFC matchup where they eat each other and
there's certain matchups that that favor other teams. Well, this is the one that the Niners eat rams UH specifically Sean McVay three and six straight up as a favorite in this matchup, including we just saw earlier this year when they should have dominated and killed and had every chance to do it, or not kill them, but at least beat him.
Weird shit happens.
Double favorites at home and fucking lost outright.
And let me just say about Samaveay and I have a lot of respect for him as a coach because its a great offensive mind, but as a game manager, that dude makes so many late decisions and his like it's almost like his balls shrink up and he can't see the big pitcher. For an aggressive offensive mind or for an offensive mind, a guy he does not have the the aggressiveness the uh just just put this game
away like a Sean Payton. Like a Sean Payton, if he's got a chance to put your his foot on your neck offensively late in the game, he's doing it. Sean McVay, he bitches out, he'll punt on go for it situation.
What game they lost earlier this year when it was fourth and one and he runs the ball middle, what was that?
Well, I can't even believe he even fucking went for it usually, I mean that was that wasn't punt rangers, I know what you're talking about.
Uh, decisions like that. It's decisions like that why he's whatever. He's a great coach, but there's just little things like that that keep him from being well. That's why he's three and six against against Cyrus Go in this matchup. So I don't know why that one book is taking so many so much money and up to five and a half. That's crazy because four and a half is the byspot for sure. You start getting down to fourth. I think it opened at three, so that at three
it's a RAMS number. At three, it's a RAMS number at four, four and a hal half. Anything over that, you're you're that's a niners number.
Yeah, the money's starting to come back in on the rams now. Now it's got to four and a half. So well, I guess, well, switch to four ninders now. I guess it's trickling back to its rams. But it's trickling, so.
I want two units on the four and a half. By the way, nothing on the money.
Line, got it? Okay, So by the numbers here, powright, great sand Fran forty nine and a half. We're sitting there for a total. I've got sand Fran losing twenty one to twenty two, so that will be within the four and a half and it'll be well under kind of like the under here. A couple of reasons. Number one, not a good matchup for the quarterback, and Stafford's having a great year. All those back injuries. We thought we're gonna derail them. He can't walk, can't do this. Yeah,
he's fucking like in line for an MVP. No, how about you? That was smoke like it's not smoke.
He's taking multiple shots in his back. It was not smoke. He was legit hurt like it's it's just he's whatever drugs.
He's on good.
He's on some good shit. That shit, I know.
He's immediately like, I don't whatever they're shooting him up with. Please and thank you. I'll take that every day of the rest of my life. Oh my god.
He's gonna probably pay for it later later on his life.
No doubt, but through this one. But he might get another fucking shot out at Super Bowl. They keep playing like this, but it's not a good matchup for the mccooie monster or for him here they both lose a point with BPG. It's also not a good matchup throw for sant Fran's running game. I told you last week it was the spot for c mac. Oh, that's I'm always gonna be there minus half a point here. I don't like that. But it's a flat spot for the Rams running games again. Just it's all points to I know,
the totals forty nine and a half. Everybody expected fireworks. I kind of see it going a little bit the other way, type more low scoring game. You know, that's that's generally how Sant Frank gets them in these games is they shut that offensive down. They do enough on their offensive end to score enough to win the game. Again, I got it pretty much a coin flip somewhere in the low twenties. Settling in there. I agree with the San fran H. We've lined up a lot. This week's kind of scary. It is.
It's just lined up.
But I'll see what's good or bad, bad.
Bad, But yeah, I like Sant Friend there and I like the under two. All right, Moving on to those Sandy Diego super Chajes did.
Not Definitely San Diego, Definitely San Diego.
Did not go cover against those Tennessee Times on the road. But now they're back home and they're laying two and a half points heavily juiced, moving towards the three money coming in on the Chajes. Uh, it is it three at DK right now? Three is juice though on the other side at one fifteen, three ads Bovada juice to one twenty. So it's a solid two point seventy five moving towards two point eight, long horn, what do you got.
On this one? But still three officially right.
Two and a half what two and a half for Yeah, two and a half. It's two and a half on almost every book. A couple of threes sticking out the juice.
Fair enough, fair enough. Where's my schedule for them? I'm definitely gonna be on Pittsburgh here. I don't feel super great about it because, again we talked about the indie matchup last week.
They got five tone.
Numbers and one by seven points. That's I'm sorry. Pittsburgh is not good. They're still not a good team. Great, that's cool that you got to win, but they're not They're just not a good team. Now, why I'm on Pittsburgh a couple of reasons. Number one, they lost Joe Alt again and they lost Slater coming in the season. That's so awesome that you can lose an all Pro type left tackle and then you can move your right tackle over to left tackle and he plays like an All Pro.
That's badass.
And that was doing Yeoman's work if I can do some al Michaels. But when he got hurt in the middle of the sea or in the middle of the they lost to the to the Commanders. Joe All was hurt. They lost to the Colts. Joe Walt was hurt. Point being when they don't have Slater or all, this is a very, very beatable team. And we saw last week against Tennessee five Tennessee and.
They couldn't run. They couldn't. I was watching that game.
Obviously I had the ladder bet on them. They could not run the ball against Tennessee when Joe All went out.
And now you got.
Pittsburgh, which which as bad as they are on defense, they can at least rush the passer.
And now you got they brought in Trevor Pinning. Talked about that earning the podcast.
They traded traded for Trevor Pinning, a kind of barely starting level tackle, but at least he's a starting level tackle, and that's barely what they had, huh, and said he.
Can New Orleans was playing at guard because he couldn't even start.
Right and he felt miserably a tackle. So fair point, but it's gotta be better than what they were gonna have at the point point B. So yeah, I think Pittsburgh can get this game. Any My last point, and what I wanted to look up and I had to look up, is the Pittsburgh offense as we know, it's not good, but they focus almost exclusively on DK and the tight ends 'es basically their whole offense. I think they run three three, that's right. I said three tight end set like thirty percent.
Others like, what.
Are they gonna do? Fucking run Darren doesn't even throw the tight ends. They'renna run three tight ends. It is so stupid here we are.
Thirty percent of their plays are in three tight end sets. So I looked up what are the Chargers against tight ends? Thirtieth in the league against tight ends. So everything points to Pittsburgh in this game. It's not a sounder, it's not a danger zone, it's not a big dick because I don't trust the Pittsburgh defense at all. And and if if Herbert can make some plays with his legs, he can get outside and find Alan McConkey, or just deliver.
A ball on top like he him and your boy Joey Burrow. I swear to God they have all the time in the world. They drive me banana sandwich. How long they hold on to the god damn football. I mean, he is four hits than any other quarterback on dropbacks this year. He's taking the most hits, the most hits. Well, he's too smart and too talented, and he has guys that can make separation. It's not like he's throwing a nobody, I know, get rid of the fucking ball.
Well, he's number three in PFF, so he's playing well.
I'm not saying he's Yeah, he's having a great year, but dude, he is the reason for a lot of his fucking problems.
Yeah, maybe so.
And I did notice last week the dude runs into contact still like I don't understand.
He steps up when there's nothing to step up into.
No, I mean when he's already I mean when he's already broke containment and he's running twenty yards on the field instead of sliding, he's just running into I'm like.
Herbert, what are you.
The problem?
So I look Herbert, and those receivers scare me against that horrible, horrible secondary for Pittsburgh. Now, the Pittsburgh picked up Kyle Dugger, who got big money in New England, and for whatever reason, the defensive defensive scheme with Rabel it didn't it doesn't fit. It was always a he had lost playing time the whole year, and finally they released him, picked him up. They so now they got
dugger and they moved Jaylen Ramsey to safety. We talked about these good defenses that making changes and trying to figure out new ways to change a bad defense. Well, at least Tomlin is doing something and he's changed the players around, adding this new players. So we'll see if that continues. But again, it wasn't good last week.
Even though they got the five turnovers, the strip sacks and all that, they still go with twenty points in a fuck ton of yards.
Now, that was against the number one offense in Indy. I get that, but I have my doubts. I have my concerns at least, so I'm not going all in on Pittsburgh. But at the plus three I like it. I knew it was gonna take down to the two and a half eventually. That's why I banged in Pittsburgh already at the teaser up to plus nine, because I it was gonna get down to the two and a half, so I might as well busted in at the nine. So yeah, I'm on Pittsburgh. But this one scares me. What are the numbers say?
So this one's frustrating for me because I thought going into it is gonna be a Pittsburgh spot. I'm still not totally off of that. A couple of things though, do worry me about it. Number one, The thing I like about Pittsburgh spot, it's a no call two and a half, so the numbers fair and again our powers have been very good this year, so I feel confident on that. It's total forty five. It's a no call in that I have it exactly forty five points, so I think we couldn't get a fair line or total. Now,
the problem with that is I've got the Chargers. The BBG has the Chargers winning twenty seven to eighteen, so the majority of those forty five are coming from the Chargers.
Now.
The reason for that is this is a very good matchup for Herbert. Again, it's a bad secondary, is a bad defense, and in amongst that the scheme he just he does very well against it. This is a bad matchup.
Scheme was twenty.
Twenty seven eighteen.
That's nine points exactly what I'm vell. I'll be glad I grabbed the nine on the t's for sure.
It's not a good matchup for Aaron Rodgers here as far as you know versus the scheme. Now, the tight end thing that could play a factor into that. Hopefully that gets us a little bit close to the number. But the other thing that really bothers me is, you know, the Chargers kind of been scuffling in the running game.
They gained a half a point here, which they haven't gained much the BBG the running game lately, so it's one of their better grades in a little while in Pittsburgh grades up flat running the ball against the Chargers defense. So if Aaron's not gonna get help from the running game, and if he doesn't get five turnovers, which you know Herbers will throw you one, that's for sure.
But yeah, they'll probably get one, maybe a strip side.
He's gonna have to throw more than one. Yeah, the strip sick is always a possibility against fucking wad over there for fucking Philadelphia, I mean, Pittsburgh. That the only thing, the only reason why I can't just lay the two and a half with the Chargers. Though I see it going to three, I know it's gonna go to three. I know it's probably the smart play. The numbers say it's a smart play. That offensive line thing's scariest the shit out of me in the fact that Herbert just
refuses to let go of the fucking ball. Now, if they can run the ball, like the numbers say, that should have a plus advantage running the ball and get into some positive, you know, second and third down situations where Herbert doesn't have to hold the ball wherever he can just find Maconkie the Honkey on his fucking drag road over the middle for those eight and fifteen seventeen yard plays and then layer on your Keenan Allen, layer on the fucking big play to the whatever the kid
from TCU that learned how to catch all of a sudden and John Jewbons could be had. But the big play they can absolutely be Hay the big. They give it big plays and an enormous fucking right through the secondary. So so there is definitely an avenue for Chicago to win this game with margin. I mean, the Charger win this game with margin here, especially if Aaron's gonna play as bad as the BBG says he is. I don't know, man, I want to be on the Chargers, but that offensive
line scares the shit out of me. I don't know what to do. It might be a stay away from me just to see how this new offensive line kind of comes together and this is gonna be a good limus tests. Again, like you said, this is a bad defense. So if they can go out and handle their business and they win twenty seven right against a bad defense something like that, then I'll know, Okay, at least against
this level of defense, this offense, p Lin's fine. When they step up in competition, we might have a problem. I just need I need a new litmus test with this new mix is what I need to have more confidence in this pick. Yeah, let's move on to the Monday Night football. It is those Green Baby Packers coming off maybe the worst franchise history. I don't know. Can it get any worse than losing to a guy that completed ten passes in the football game in three four
hundred yards? I don't know. I don't know that it can. Well, now they've got the World champs coming to town, to Philadelphia Eagles, who've made all kinds of moves. They played chess wherever West playing checkers this game still Now the money is starting to come in on Philly and this line is all over the fucking place. I had it written down at two and a half. However, the West gates two and a half flat sergus to and half flat. Okay, there's more some outliers. We got some outlier books that
are down to one and a half. Here's some online stuff. So, well, when's it too. Money's definitely coming in on Philly. I don't see this close in two and a half. There's definitely not going to three. So if you like the Packers, I would say, wait, if you like Philly, I'd probably get on. I want to be on you now. If I like Philly, let's see.
You that and let me tell you who I like you. Hear that, buddy, We're going Philadelphia? Are you kidding me?
We've We've got we have the Super Bowl champs making their chess moves once again. I want one unit on the money line and one unit plus the two.
Because they're just gonna win his games. I might as well might as well get both.
And it was a two and a half for sure then for sure again, Tucker Kraft, we we talked about this on the Monday pot him going down. Golden is already dealing with some injuries. They're probably not gonna have him.
Dude, who is love going to and and and so you want unit on each So uh, this is the time. And and I just I keep thinking back.
To that that image of of Jalen Hurts walking in to the was it Kansas City they played early this year. They were they were dogs on the road walking in and he walked by the screen that that showed everybody on the TV like in the in the pregame when they and it's like a k C k C k C k C ksey and he just walked by. He's like, all right, nobody, nobody wants us h all right. And I feel the same way in this one. Oh, we're underdogs against it again. We're the champs.
We're under dogs. We're we're getting better, We're making trades, we're we're making moves. Our our arrow is is gonna go up. Okay, all right.
So the only thing that that worries me, and it's a big worries, is how good this Green Bay defense is That like, like they are a good defense. And if you can keep it ugly, you can keep it close. And you're the home team, of course you got a shot to win. And still this game by by a field go hopefully less. Maybe if they win, it's only about one or two points. And I can I can you know sneak out that that against the spread win? But I just don't see how green Bay scores. Again,
this is Philly deepens. I just don't see it. What a number saying?
All right, so the power rangement with you. They got Philadelphia. I'm really torn on this one because of that forty five and a half when we're sitting in I got it graded under. I got green Bay when he came talking about I don't know how to score, I don't know how Philly scores twenty three sixteen.
That's fair too, that's fair, But this is.
Not a good matchup for Jordan Love. He loses the point. It's a terrible matchup for her. So she loses two and a half points to the VPG. Now, the thing that gives me hope on green Bay and real pause on Philadelphi and again I've re racked all these numbers to take out all Barkley's pires is obviously he's not having the MVB season was running for two thousand yards. So it was unfair to continue to grade him with any of that in there because it kept pushing his
numbers down, down, down. Well, that's not fair. We can't expect any of that productivity, So let's grade it to what it is now, which is a very middling running game at best. Even with that, he still loses two points and Green Bay gains a half of points. They should be able to run the ball on. This deepens. Now, everything in my soul tells me that you're right on Philadelphia, but everything the numbers tells me you're wrong. And then I've got these two trends that also support the fact
that you might be wrong. After the buye and you are an away dog since twenty twenty one, seventeen nineteen forty seven point two percent. That's not too bad. However, the line's four and a half and you're not covered by half a points. That's losing by four points a game. But you couple that with this after the buye away dog, and you're playing a team coming off a loss four and thirteen straight up losing by nine points a game
six and eleven. Ats not covered by four points a game at a line of four point nine and six and eleven to the UNDA, which supports my undercall in the forty five and a half. Look, I know, eventually, probably the moves that Philly makes puts them right back in contention. They're obviously gonna win this shitty division. I don't think there are any I don't think there's any disillusions about that. So they're gonna be there in the end. I hope that we see this game again in the playoffs.
We probably will at some point, but this spot in particular, in this matchup in particular, I got, I mean, I just gotta go. I can't. I don't know that I'll bet it because I always wait for the Monday night game to kind of see how the numbers went through the weekend and see how kind of accurate everything was, to see if we're gonna go on Monday done or not. So I don't know that I'll bet it. But I can't be on Philadelphia just for everything the numbers say
and those two trends. I mean, but again, everything about Soul tells me that you're right if this is the spot where they just walk in and win.
But again, this so, this is so, this is a this is a prediction. Obviously it's not. I don't have any proof of it yet.
But the Tank Bigsby acquisition for the Eagles, a real running back combo to go because obviously at this point we we've we realized is not gonna be you know, he.
Was so funny because we talked about that and you didn't poop poo it, but you don't really think it was that big a deal. But I talked about the other kid that they had with Barkley last year. There was like the third down back, the scat back, the spell, the spilling back. Basically he would come in like halfway through a series and give Barkley a couple of reps off and what a great job he did Phillyppy. Last year, they didn't they didn't get Barkley production, but they certainly
didn't lose anything. Especially in the past game with him out there. They have not had that other dude.
They have not, and they do now.
They do now, and I think too going forward, you're gonna people are gonna realize, like Tank basically, oh shit, I forgot Yeah, the Eagles got him. How where's this guy busting off seventy yards as a backup part time? Like he's a real deal running back that hopefully in this game for me at least since I'm on Philly.
Uh, they feel his impact.
And you know, like sometimes you lessen the load on Saquon Instead of twenty five thirty touches a game, get him in that eighteen to twenty two touches a game. Maybe you maximize his his you know what he's gonna be.
He's like the right five touches, right, you get him the right five touches, and he's the difference in every football game. That's what he was last year.
And since it's the last game, let me just say that Willie motherfucking Lampkin is still on this Philadelphia roster.
Now he hasn't played.
He hasn't played, So I since I just happened to see his name and I forgot.
That will boost coming.
Baby Willy Lumpkins is still a real thing in the NFL. And once they finally realized that the five ft eleven, two hundred ninety pounds center is going.
To be a future all bro, Yeah, this is gonna open up everything.
Him and tanks human tank just get him, get time going Super Bowl not guaranteed.
So I just want to throw that out there, Willie Pumpkins everybody, all right, boys.
And girls, that was all the wins come to the ear. All right, boys and girls. You know what Simon is a time of those three I said, three picks of the week. Love lay it on them.
Baby, oh man, what are we going on?
Note pad over here?
You honestly I like something this is This is hard because we like a lot of stuff this week. You know what, I'm not one. I'm not one to doubt the sharps.
Okay, and when they know something that I don't know, I am not.
Certainly not going against this.
So let me give out the Washington dead Skins, as bo Cephas said earlier, because they're not dead, they're plus eight.
They're gonna cover this game. Washington Dead Skins and Doug.
At the eight.
All right, free pick, free, pick, all right for the college pre pick the week, Let's go to Jackson State.
No it's not Jacksonville. No, it's nothing. It's Jackson State girls. They're playing in Mississippi Valley State and Missouri. Fellow, whoever puts about it. They're laying thirty and a half.
What high school are these?
Oh? No, Literland twenty eight and a half? Excuse me twenty eight? Sorry?
Is this six A Texas State? What is this?
This is just a step above six, maybe a step below six A if we're being honest. Jackson State laying twenty eight. Maybe they're gonna go fucking win by forty. We're gonna snooze through this one. Let's get that college free picked the week Jackson States minus the twenty eight. Oh even rhymes. I like that, all right, Longhorn talking about that fabulous Patreon one more time. They get all these winners this weekend.
All right, go to that Patreon page Patreon dot com, slash bet underscore fgh and, like Bosie was saying, get all the winners, go to this college package.
Sign up for that because it's still red hot. I've got an NFL package. C K's got a player cross package, and Bosives has an NFL package to all the winners over there at that Patreon page. So people, stop throwing away your hard earned money on that guessing game. Let the pros do that heavylifting. So sign up, Hello friend and joining on the funnel watching football, drinking beer and nava.
Hey you book you again?
Come on a damn it, girls, never play a book again. Steven telling to take yourself. Oh sho