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All right? All right? Both Stephen's NFL Week nine and we are ready to go. And Buddy, I only came here to do two things, find some winners and drink some beer. And it looks like I never run out of winners and I never ever run out of beer. So Bo Stephens, hit that butt in for the funny.
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right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got the TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting O choice of the week.
I still drunk. I feel right don well, thank you very much their search and I am drinking a Miller genuine draft two out of five stars. But I'm drinking it's not a long horn because it is an old shitty beer. And when it comes to the NFL this year, I am an old shitty handicapper. But just like this beer, baby, I'm not going down without a fucking fight. A lot of season left. Hold on, I fucking turn this round
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Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what what do you think is happening right now?
What's happening here?
Excuse me?
What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for all those wins coming to the ads to night member. Oh yeah, boys and girls, those bells, those bells. It is weak nine. It is time to rock and roll.
Long, get out of here. Phil Collins, shut your mouth, Shut your mouth, Phil calls, we're talking to you, all right.
Uh uh, Look we're gonna we're not messing around. We're starting with the barn burner of the week. I bet we're going on those New England Patriots. Well, those hot Atlanta Falcons who's playing quarterback? Who knows? Who gives a ship? They're coming up there. They're five and a half point road dogs. Longhorn, what do you have on this fucking just major matchup?
That's actually not the game I thought you were gonna start with. But yeah, Atlanta, New England, this is a big kind of depends on who's playing quarterback for for Atlanta. So let me switch to I had us on Cincinnati Chicago, so let me just switch my sheet here to all the way down. Never know where you get your order of games from, but it's fine, it's it's it's all good. So we got Falcons currently, Well, where is he is?
He?
Not even on the he's not even on the injury Forard anymore. He's off the injury fort Okay, we still got drink London with a questionable. But that's that's good usually for a question when you're gonna play. So look, okay, so if these players are playing, what's the line currently? What'd you say five and a half? How did it not move then? Because it was five and a half when they were it was highly up in the air two days ago.
Let's see five and a half. Juicey that us you can still get a six. Holy shit, if you luck the Falcons, head on over to bet us boys and girls. They're just giving money away.
Okay, so this makes me feel even better about my pick, at least the side that I'm on, because I'm on New England. But I don't like that the line as it moved, because I should be getting some value.
Because we Depending on what you believe he was, it was kind of a surprise that he didn't play last week. He was almost a go so well, basically the market was assuming.
That's fine this They usually hedge a little bit at least, though, so I thought I could at least squeeze out a point, maybe a half point whatever point being I'm on New England. New England just appears to be the most unflinching. We don't care what the spot is, we don't care what y'all think about us. We just go out there and Drake May, I'm just gonna fucking ball out. If it's not working one hundred percent with my arm, I'll mix in my leg my legs to get some action.
So he just needs one leg.
What do you mean, Drake May? Oh yeah, he probably could be some of these teams with one leg. That's how that's how good you know that he's like in the MVP like conversation anyways, right now.
And I said this last year, A Longhorn yelled at me profusely and said I was an idiot. I said, you know what, I know, Jade Daniels having this great season, but all in all, if I had to pick the best quarterback out of this class, this actually performed this year. It was And you were like, are you faking Hey is terrible? Heyes, John. I was like, look, I know, I know you can go back and look the tape,
boys and girls, it's documented. It's all documented. I said, I know his numbers are bad, and I know Jay Nanners put up MVP numbers. However, all in all, if you look what he was working with and you look at his underlying stats, he's actually probably had, I can say, better than Jay Naimers, but it was pretty close. It was pretty fucking close. You just.
Wow.
On top of the at least I counted two or three lives that you just do.
No, that's not a lot. That's fucking document on tape. You literally fucking yelled you like you're fucking crazy. I was like, I'm not crazy. I know what I see through the fucking numbers.
First of all, you were crazy, because yeah, Jade and Daniels, I wasn't.
Crazy his numbers compared to what he was working with.
That's not how that that's not how that works. According to based on what he was working with. That, yes, and I'm sure I agreed that based on what he's working with it he played better than Yes, I did. No, I didn't prove poo pooing that you think that he had a better year than Jayde and Daniels. Yeah, I still I stand by that because that's dumb because Jaye Daniels took a team that that was gonna force to
win five games of the goddamn Ancy Championship game. So if you want to play your flag on that, go ahead. But yeah, Jake, Drake May played better than his number show. I agree with that, I'm sure. And what he had to do, yes, I did, you did not. Okay, Well you can't prove it and you won't. I know you won't do the work to go back and prove it. So it's.
How many times have I done the word just to do this to you?
Remember your arm? I think this guy's probably yeah, yeah, yeah, he's a Yeah. That was like eight years ago. That was like eight years ago, it was.
Like six and and I did do the work and I brought it back. You're like, I didn't say that. I was like, yeah, you did, But you won't be able.
You won't be able to find every time I've talked about fucking Drake May and you just won't do the work. I know you won't. But anyways, so that he's playing like an m v P this year. Another thing that you conveniently left out is that I was higher on you coming out of the draft, So like you just you just forget that part of the story. So anyways he's playing.
When you were like he sucks, I'm like, he doesn't suck as bad as you think he does. He really does. I was the one that ended up having to defend the kid, That's my point. But yes, that is true. Longhorn was much higher in them coming out that I was. I was not a believer in Drake May at all, but I wasn't believing in Jadan Daniels either, So obviously I didn't know about either one of them. Although I might end up being right about Jade Daniels because he can't stand the fit.
He's having some uh some RG three issues. RG three come back. So in this game, Atlanta is just not an outdoor team. And anytime I can fade a dome team going on the grass. And I checked the weather report in New England, I'm not it's not what I would like. I'd like it to be a lot more Boston nasty. Then it's gonna be on Sunday, it's gonna.
Be I guess the storm is gonna hang around. So that's from Jamaica.
It's not gonna make it up there.
Yeah, it's basically hitting weirdly enough, like in the Tennessee Kentucky.
Yeah, it's gonna be cold. It's ship though, and it's gonna be a grass outdoor team or indoor team. Mm hmm. Good because they they suck when it's perfect weather. I can't imagine how bad they're gonna suck when it's when it's horrible, horrible weather. I can't even imagine. No, So like Pennix is uh, he's had two outdoor games he's owing to He's terrible like it. Like just I'm gonna start like just doing with these teams what what I should be doing, And that's spot. I mean that's how
I do it basically anyways. But I'm gonna start writing these spots out until they prove me wrong.
I'm just gonna be very bad period. He is twenty third and CPO plus EP. That's right above Bryce Sung and right below to it Antis plus blow your boys, Spencer Rat. Yeah, so that's another quarterback I might have been right about.
Well, he lost to Carolina Outdoors thirty to like six, so he's he's just extra bad outdoors. So yeah, I'm on New England. Obviously. Six is a key number in the NFL these days. It's more key than than it has been before. So if you if you can get it under the six, that's great. I don't know that you'll necessarily need it, especially the way New England just rolls up on people. But yeah, I'm on the five on.
Bet online Juice five, so you got access to that book. That's your best line five and a half everywhere else except the loan bet us at plus the six.
So yeah, that's weird. No no injury report, by the way, for for for New England, they're they're just they're beating everybody. They got no injuries. It's it's it's amazing, and that's that's huge. Like these players are going down like flies in the NFL. If you're completely healthy, you're in good shit.
It's a huge advantage. That's the reason why they're beating everybody.
Yes's exactly why.
Uh yeah, I got nothing on this game, so I didn't know who was playing quarterback and I just skipped it, all right, all right, moving on to those Green Bay Packers. Faith in those Carolina Panthers. Maybe brussh Young. I don't know. Andy Dalton broke his thumb, he's definitely out. They might not have a quarterback at all. They might just go full on wildcat wishbone. Let's fucking go baby. Either way, we're staring at green Bay. Uh, you can get them
at thirteen at bet online. Thirteen and a half is juiced to the dog. So fading down to the thirteen, we'll call it thirteen point two five longhorn for the green Bay package home favorite here. Well, sorry, I forgot to go with the preseason line on this preseason line on this one. I mean I had Carolina as bad as back and get I had this game at dreen Bay minus eight. Vegas had it seven and a half. We're sitting at thirteen and a half, thirteen and a half,
and Carolina is a five hundred football team. So does it say about the quarterback situation? Probably they don't fucking got one. Probably they don't fucking got one. We're probably gonna see a name is Jake delom available?
Na?
I thank you?
Cam? Is cam available now playing this game?
He's Brashdown's playing. He's not even on the injury cotan think that he is.
I think that he is.
I'm not seeing I'm listening on an injury fort. So he must have practiced today.
He was at practice and stretched, which is an improvement according to the media thirteen and a half from eight and seven. Again I was down on them, Vegas is down on them, and now we're a full five five and a half points, six full points above what Vegas said six full points. And again Carolina is a five hundred team. So I don't know long Horn make it makes sense to me.
I am, I'm looking if he's playing, I'm looking up rations injury status and try to find some better information.
See, but in this game, you want to go through mine and you look it up.
I mean mine's I don't look. He has to play. I mean, I don't give a fuck like you got nobody else. You gotta play. Get your ass out there and find that fucking dog. But this is a gross This is just a gross discussing spot to be in because you got Carolina. And again I talked about the spots that I like that I like to bet on or off teams, and this one's a colliding one because we've got Carolina on the road. That's not that's just you don't immediately that's not where we want to be.
But unless they're playing the Jets and they can score thirteen points and not only win, but Cup.
Yes, true, that is true.
They did.
They did win that one on the road. But then you got Green Bay, which their thing that you don't want, at least currently is you don't want them as big favorites. They don't. They're they're this year, They're not. They're not covering big favorites. Jordan Love is owing for ats in his career as a favorite of seven or more points. It's not his particular spot. So we've gotta we gotta we got a class here.
I think it's a systematic thing too for Green Bay, Like their coach is so smart and he's so confident in what they do, which is what I have been saying the whole time. Has a peak? Yet they have a peak? Yet they have a peak. Don't think they have. They have not seen their best football. Now we saw a flash of it in Pittsburgh.
We do against good teams, though, which which tells me that they're that they know they're better than what they show on some of these Yeah, which so that so I'm landing on Carolina in any kind of contest, I'm reluctantly gonna have to plug them in at the third that the monster number historically, I know historically is a good number. I mean, I just am I gonna get motherfucked by Carolina on the road outdoors? Probably so, But I mean, what what else are you gonna do? So, yeah,
it's just a girls numbers play for me. I really need, I really need Bryce Young to just suck it up and get your ass out there. I mean, just just just do it. But yeah, got that fucking dog and to pick your poison game, I'm gonna take the Carolina poison pill.
I guess yeah, I'd have to leave with the power ringers on Carolina here now. But the thing I like best year is in total. So this total is at forty four and a half seems low. And if you look at what the total has been doing, Longhorn, it has been a ridiculous slate of overs this season, yet again, even worse than last year. I mean even worse. Like if you we talked about it at the very beginning of the season, if you literally walked up and bet the over every game last year and the favorite, you
literally made money. Hey you didn't make much, but you made money. Just say, I don't care who's playing, I don't care what the total is, give me the favorite give me the most square thing possible, give me the favorite and the over, and you walked away at the end of the season winning money, which is mind fucking to us and to most professionals. That's not how traditionally you win in the NFL. But I've talked about.
They can't catch up to the new rules.
So it's not only that I truly believe that the influx of the titty touts and the fact.
That I don't think I don't think that's I.
Think that you're wrong. I think that I'm right. I think the titty touts and the fact that this is legal everywhere, and all the titty toowls do is repeat people like me and you who say the traditional things, bet the dogs, bet the under all that gets out there, And now Vegas has made the adjustment to where favorites are covering and the fucking totals are going over. I truly believe that because at this point they wouldn't continue to do something that was gonna beat them. That's not
what Vegas thinks. So I truly believe. I just believe that to be true.
Now so so with the change in the kickoff rule, the fact that every team gets the memo now that you just go for it on fourth downs or this year, but that's just this year.
On the kickoff. Last year the kickoff rule, I told you we have no consequence. They were all just going to kick the INDs on which they did.
It didn't have a tick up, it was a tick up and just did tick up.
But I told you every team's gonna kick in the inZone and they did. Now this year they're kicking it in the landing zone because the filing is too great, right, So now it's shit created more variants back towards the under because now we have a different differential. Like last year was pretty much ninety percent of the time they started the fucking thirty like nine percent. They didn't give a show that they're still kicking the inzet So now we have a bigger variance, So that shouldn't really be
playing a factor in this. The fourth down thing absolutely plays a factor, but again the market adjusts for that if it's if they're really getting beat, they do adjusts. They're not getting beat because all the teddy towns still repeat what we say, take the undertake the dog, and they're not losing, because if they were losing, they would make the adjustment, but they're not. That's why they have it like, oh, you have just all the money and you know that I'm right. And I don't know if
it's the titty tows for sure, but it has. It has to play a factor that this ship is legalized where And that's just the old school thought. And since everybody bet that when it was first started and we were having good years, now they've made the adjustment to where can't just bet the dog.
In the end to win the NFL definitely can't do the dog, for sure, and you really can't under No, you can't do that.
In this game. I like that said, all that fucking preaching. I do like the under here.
It's fourteen to six. Oh you're talking about Carolina, Carolina.
I like the under here in the forty four and a half. A couple of different reasons. Number One, this isn't actually a good matchup for Jordan Love. Now, this Carolina defense, their offense blows on the road, but their defense goes to play again. They beat me when they scored thirteen points on the road against the Jets team who they just scored forty against fucking Censior. Whatever they scored scored like almost thirty against the Cows and fucking
thirty something against Pittsburgh. So against incompetent defenses, the Jets can't score the ball. Against Carolina, they could move the ball. There's a reason for that. Carolina is the fourth best success rate defense in the NFL. Low Wren's been telling us for years that they're building, they're building, they're building. What's finally fucking here, It's finally come together. They're the
fourth best success rate defense in the entire league. And green Bay, oh, sorry, second best, second best defense, green Bay. That's wild, Yes, green Bay is the fourth best success rate on offense. Green Bay has scored exactly twenty seven points in all three home games this year. Carolina on the road has scored a ten, twenty, two, thirteen, and thirteen. So feels like an all day under to.
Me, Brush Young practice fully boy the way.
Okay, this is a terror greative with Bryce Young Brushung is a terrible matchup for him. He loses two points to BBG. He's going to be ultimate dog ass in this game. So again that leads to the under. The other thing is this, green Bay does gain half a point to the BBG through the running game, which that's bustling matchup bass. Again, Carolina is very good against the run.
Here's the surprising thing to me, though Carolin is supposed to lose a point and a half of the BBG, Carolina has got the fifth best success rate rushing the ball and green Bay is twenty first on the defense. So that's all matchup base. So if the coaching staff for Carolina is worth a shit, they should be able to make some changes at least mitigate the loss of some of those points there. Now, overall, I agree with your cover green Bay winning this game twenty four to fifteen.
That's safely under the forty four and a half. You just got, you know, a great defense going against a great offense, and you've got a middling defense going against on the road, a fucking horrendous offense, and it's a horrendous matchup for Bryce Young. I agree with your Carolina Leen. I like the under all day, so I would take the dog in the under which neither of them ever wins. What do I have to lose?
I was just looking at their PFF kind of scorers and at least player player by player, and I looked up who the defensive coordinator is. It's a giro Evro and he was He came there last year with the new coach, the new head coach, and they sucked last year. And I don't see a whole lot of new players. I mean, they drafted Nick Gordon out of a good old aggie, out of A and M and it's not
they didn't do holy shit else. And the fact that he's turned what they had last year mostly into what they are this year so far, you know, you know, through through eight games. Damn hats off to to whoever this defensive coordinator is, because they absolutely were garbage last year.
And sometimes we've seen this longhorn that they I like your boy, Minnesota. It takes a year sometimes if you have a really complex scheme for these players to actually understand it and actually know their roles. And although some of the changes might not look like major players, it's just guys field gaps. You know exactly what he needs in defense. Maybe that's it. I don't know. I don't know this guy's coaching tree.
But there's only one player rated above like a sixty six individually on their defense, and that's Derek Brown, who's been a you know, all pro type defensive tackle. If you.
Look what they get against Dallas, the number two offense in the NFL.
Down, Oh, I've I've been noticing just watching them. It's like, Damn, Carolina's a little tough in this game. Tough in this game. I mean just and so hey, man, if it's if it's working, it's working like this is you know what this will get to Pittsburgh later. This is what I'm talking about. Pittsburgh has awesome players that I've seen be all pro slash Pro Bowls in different places and in Pittsburgh and for whatever reason it ain't working. Sometimes a
coordinator makes a huge difference. So it's just you know, he's obviously doing well in Carolina, and uh, whoever's doing in Pittsburgh just fire yourself because you've been awful. It's so stupid, stupid.
That Pittsburgh coordinator is so stupid. All right, let's move on two. All right, now we'll get to the name you thought we're going to. Let's those Cincinnati Bengals, probably without Joe Flacco, back to Misster Browning. Is that is that Chicago?
For sure?
He's got a spring. Dacy joined his shoulder the fact they went from a favorite to dog tells me probably.
So.
Uh.
Now this number has ticked down a bit now, it's down to two and a half, although it's heavily sent. So let's call it two point seventy five. Those Chicago Bears, that kid are the favorites. What do you got on this?
Yeah, it's it's showing them was questionable. Really, this is this is major, major dependent on Joe Flacco for me, because I can't trust.
They were so just real quick. They open world open minus one. They got up the Chicago minus three starting to take back down now, so we'll see what that means. But obviously they're heading towards Flacco not playing.
I mean, Browning is not he's been awful this year. He's been better than what he's shown this year in the past. With the injuries that Chicago's dealing with in the secondary, this should be it should be a good spot for Cincinnati, and I would hope it would be Flacco. So it's a possible danger zone. But I clearly can't do it because you just all this uncertainty. I'm not I'm not going to burn a unit on this much uncertainty.
Because there's also the formula for Chicago to go in there and get this win, good running game that they've been showing lately going against a fucking sieve of a defense versus the run. The Jets rent up, the Jets round out like like basically the same strategy that Jets did last week.
To play linebacker. I don't know how much help, right.
So you know with Chicago coming off that that loss last week, you got, you got motivation, you got the bounce back fucking oh yeah, and you've Ben Oh he's he hates losing. You can tell if it fucking irks him. And now if he can get his quarterback to hate and and lose as much as he does and actually put the work in that that the coach does, yeah, he's You can't cry in the NFL when you lose the game. You can't go to the stands and cry in your mama's arms. So figure it out. But this
is a good spot for Chicago. If Flacco was playing, I like, give me any points I can get with Cincinnati. But clearly, if he was playing, you wouldn't be getting points. So I'm kind of torn. I'm gonna probably land on Chicago just for the bounce back factor and the fact they should be able to dominate this game on the ground, control the clock, and I just love that coach, and and I anytime I can fade Cincinnati, let me have all of that. So Chicago reluctantly.
Cincinnati forever and ever and ever. I don't have anything in this game except for this. This is Cincinnati before the buye their home dog since twenty twenty one, seventeen, thirteen and one fifty six. Now, I don't know that factors in, but you don't have a quarterback or I mean, I'm with you. I think Browning can go out there and get it done. Chicago's defense has been pretty shitty all season.
Yeah, I would never play this on if this would never make it either side on any car that I would ever have in a million years.
Except twenty ninth and success rate, so except maybe been over because thirty first Chaugu's twenty nine. So you have two of the worst defenses in the NFL. I don't give if it is Browning, he should be able to score, Chicago's be able to score.
What's the over at currently? Uh?
When I wrote it, when I wrote it down in my journal, it's fifty one mm fifteen one. That's intriguing.
That's that's a that's a key number. So if you can get that to fifty and a half, even if it is Browning, I might have some interest in that over.
Yeah, he's gonna be able to put up points.
Yeah, I've got some interest in that over. We saw Detroit put up I mean it's I know it's Detroy, but Chicago and Detroit actually want to play very similar styles of offense and they and they kind of are lately with the running game emergence of Chicago. So if Detroit can go in there and put up i don't know, forty something goddamn points that they did. Yeah, so I'm I'm interested in the over in this game.
Sure, Yeah, that's that's the only way I look on this one. All right, let's move on to those Houston I said Houston with that h Texans. Now, this is a game. I don't know that I'll bet it, but I am very very interested to see this game for many many reasons. Yeah, Now preseas on this one. I'll bring up the preseas lots especially. Have you know the teams that we basically thought we would they are who we thought they were all right this one. I had Houston minus one and a half. No, yes, I had
Houston minus one and a half. Vegas had Houston plus one and a half, So I fucking win. Uh, Houston is minus one and a half. So I called it right on the fucking number of that kid. Actually two at Heritage, but and two at Bravado, but one and a half most places, maybe one point seven somewhere around in there. It doesn't really matter between one and two. So uh. Now the total in this one is ticked up from thirty and a half, so that was a
little interesting to me, especially with our projections. We'll get to in a second. What do you have on this one?
Yeah, this one is six and two for the Broncos. By the way, I'm gonna be on Houston. I'm gonna be on Houston this game. And it kind of sucks that this was a line flip from from dog to favorite obviously earlier in the week. That sucks. So I don't I don't get to do a sounder or or get any kind of credit for that.
But world open officially, and so okay, it's been all Texas money coming in.
Yeah, I'm gonna be on their Patrick stan is out and Uson needs all the help they can get. When when with Stroud, I know Nico Collins is likely to come back from that concussion thing. They are getting Christian Kirk back, and the two rookie and the two he has been cleared, Nico yes, okay perfect, and then the two rookie Iowa State receivers that they drafted. In these absence and these and these injuries that they've had have
kind of grown up over the last few weeks. Along with Woody Marks, the rookie that they drafted, they've been what you would expect from, you know, second and third, third round wide receiver selections, slow, slow to start, and then now they're starting to make some plays, so and now they can now now with Kirk and Nico back in the mix, they're going to slide into that third and fourth wide receiver set. Really like that. The emergence
of Woody Marks, their fifth round pick. I believe out of USC running back really loved him coming out, talked about him in the preseason, pods him at that combo with him and Nick Chubb starting to fall into place, the office line still garbage, but not hot garbage. It's kind of garbage. So it's we're we're getting a little bit better there. But this basically both that's not my handicap because because at this point we know what Houston
is and we know what they're not. We know they're a great defense, we know they're yeah, not any good. But they win his game. They're four and four and they're climbing when they started. Then they start owing three. I think they started owing three. So if they won his game, they're on a four and one, you know, stretch. So happen that what might happen?
Mm hmmmm.
Well, we don't count records till they're till all the games are done, so it's it is. It is what it is. But Denver is another team that we we know what they are. We know they're a good team with a limp.
Against Baltimore without.
Mm hmmm.
So they really they really should be, I.
Know, because because Lamar was winning so many games, he was winning so many games when he was in there, he was.
He was just bet they would have lost forty.
He was Lamar was just fucking cash and wins after wins when he was healthy. That that Baltimore team maybe.
But I bet it wasn't forty four to ten.
Let's see Baltimore, yep, one win, one win, still in the air. We're in week nine. That's uh that that Oh sorry, sorry Baltimore, you got too in week nine. Congratulations. No, Denver is bow Knicks dependent and anytime you're making them That's what I said. I said, if they said, if they win this game, to be.
Four and four, so yeah, so they should be too in five.
Yeah, okay, all right, We're done with the kudas should have wouldow game and let's just get into this one. Bow Knicks is four and seven as in his career as a dog, he's turning into deck for me and I just talked about and a couple of handicaps ago that I'm going to start riding these streaks and like spots. We know, Dak you bet him against bad teams. You don't bet him against good teams, especially on the road. Bonux is turned into that for me, so until proven otherwise,
you know. And now you can say, hey, well I don't think that Houston's a bad team. You fine, you will well if you're right on, well, we'll find out at the end of the year if that was right. Or wrong, But right now, I know they're an elite defense, and Bonix has to play against an elite defense. So I'm going to take the other side on this one. And and and the fact that Patrick starts in huh better than Houston, boy, I don't. Well, maybe they are,
but you're you're flipping coins here. And the fact that Patrick Sartan is out. And here's the thing Patrick often allows allows Denver, who is a high blitz rate team, they can they send five more than anybody any other team because they got a guy that can lock down one on one. Is that gonna change their whole kind of thing? I doubt it. I bet they probably try to do what they do somewhat. It's gotta change something. But like I just like the fact that Houston is
getting all the receivers back. You've got the main cog of the Denver defense that allows me new what they do out It all points to Houston for me. I'm getting them under you know, under two points, under three points, so I'm gonna be.
On them all right, He's gonna be on you, Houston. I don't have a strong feeling this scam, which is just busting on horns balls Now the prior ring is do you have denver. I've got it twenty to twenty one Denver. Now the total so that was over the total rigis thirty nine and a half. It's ticked up to forty and a half. Now here's the thing. The success rate does not agree with this thing going over.
You've got two of the worst offenses in the entire league, twenty sixth and twenty fifth, respectively, and you've got the number four and number one success rate defense, respectively. So it feels like an under all the way. But my numbers don't support that, and the market has supported my numbers going to the over here. It's kind of those sneaky overs that I think might actually happen. It's not enough for me to get behind it, but the market
and my number, these hidden numbers are supporting that. But if you just looked at it on paper, got two of the worst offenses versus got two bottom five offense but versus two top five defenses, what would a square look at that and say, oh, fucking give me the under probably goes over twenty two to twenty one. Flipp it either way, something like that. Either one of these quarterbacks great out well, but they don't. They're not terrible. It's minus half a point, same thing to run a game.
Not good, but not terrible, minus half a point. Again, these are the number one and number four defenses in the entire NFL, and they both played some better offenses in this league. It's not like they've had cake schedules in that perspective, so you can't even point to that.
They're just really fucking good. They're well coached, they have a lot of fucking talent, and like I said, you know, the over probably ticked up with the like Longhorn said, the receivers coming back, even with you know this awesome De Dever defense coming in there. And don't ever forget, don't ever forget both these quarterbacks, I mean, Boonecks especially, can throw you a pick six that'll get you over forty and a half, real fucking quick in an NFL game.
That's almost guaranteed if that happens. So, and you're right, long Horn, he's terrible on the road. He's bad almost all the time. Throw on the road against a great defense. I couldn't back him either. So I don't disagree with your play, just busting your balls. I don't have anything on this game. But if I had to, I would definitely lean Houston and the Ovah their kids, which would be again not not supported by the way, but my
numbers supported in the market supports. So in forty and a half, that's just so fucking dude.
So it's a little number.
Again, his offenses are you know, dog shit.
So when it's when it's six to three at halftime, though, it's a that's a big hill to climb.
It's a big hill to climb, especially with those two quarters. But we've seen, we've seen both those quarterbacks go nuts so in the fourth quarter too, so they're weird like that. All right, let's move on. Actually I want to I do want to check that real quick. Let's see where both those quarterbacks are, just out of curiosity.
Where they are.
See uh bo next, he's actually sixteenth cps, so he's right on average, whereas our boy he's thirteen. So really the quarterbacks haven't been playing as far as that metrics terribly overall. But man, they here's the problem with both those offits. They have no sustain success rate. Just to explain it to you, boys and girls, it comes from sustaining drives sustained drives are basically like any drive that's gonna last you know, eight or more plays in the NFL.
I think it's ten in college, eight in the NFL. That's really where that great comes from. So although success rates are not great, both of them have a closer to positive EPA than they probably probably should, simply because they both have explosive play you know, capability in them. We've seen the Broncos score how many bomb touchdown you know what I'm saying, Like big, big plays down the field.
They'll do nothing bow Nicks with dirt two balls go three and out, three and out, three out, and all of a sudden boom port and something fifty yard touchdown whatever, like you know, they'll bust or run. Something will happen.
Like it's usually a run because if there's a deep bomb shot by bow Knicks, he overthrows about three yards. So it's a look if he ever, if.
He ever figures that out, it doesn't necessarily have to bomb the throw, but like he throws the part. You know, Sean Payton calls the perfect play.
Yeah, it's a short pass that turns into something.
Yeah, it's never like like four point seven.
So whenever he drops back and launches one, I'm like, well that's fucking what's the next down? What do we doing on the next down?
Just to present perspective what I was talking about. So twenty fifth to twenty six in success right, However, both of them, the Broncos are plus zero point six eight ep Houston's point three. You don't get plus. The only other offense down there in that territory that's actually plus is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is actually twenty seven success rate because they don't have a lot of long successful
drives either, a lot of big plays Baker makes. You know, it's those kind of officers have that explosive capability to them.
So it's hard to have explosive plays against the Houston defense and.
The Denver defense. So again it all leans to an under from me. My numbers says slightly over the market degrees.
I don't know.
I wouldn't bet it, but it is what it is. Carl, let's move one of those Pittsburgh Steelers. Fuck yeah, hosting those Indianapolis Colts. Oh okay, let's look at the preseason line on this one. Yeah wrong, I was I had Pittsburgh minus five Green nerd Vegas had a minus three and a half. We both get a big fat f although Vegas has beat me by point and a half
because Andy's now minus three. Got something your boy, three point doh, this is your spot, baby, I got a danger zone, I got a big dig I gotta sound of what I got coming to me right.
Yeah, No, we're not hitting any of those this week. And you know to that point, this is the.
Perfect trap, damn it, Baltimore.
This is the perfect trap spot for for Indy. They haven't had a hiccup yet. They're due for a hiccup. Been saying that for a while, going on the road to a team coming off an embarrassing primetime loss. This is literally another perfect spot. But I'm just not doing anymore. I'm just not doing it until I'm gonna stick. I'm gonna stick true to the riding, riding the current whatever it is, like, I just and I've got no reason on this current wave of Indiana, Indie, Indiana of Indy
to to not ride them. I've got no current wave to go on Pittsburgh an the spots because recently it just ain't fucking working. So prove me wrong, and and then maybe I'll start changing my mind a couple a couple of wins, but no, until then, fuck off. Give me Indy, especially at three. I know there was some three and a half. It's kind of doing this little you know, back and forth, back and forth. Co depends
on where you want to get it at. You know, if you like Pittsburgh, you better get the three and a half because there's probably some available. If you like any then certainly obviously get the three and a half on the board that I see now, But there was probably plenty of available earlier in the week, so.
So it could definitely be three and a half.
They had the perfect Pittsburgh last week had the perfect opportunity, another great spot in primetime. You're up double digits at halftime, if you have even an average defense to slightly above average defense, that's over. You can turn your TV off, you can go to bed, count your money. It's over. They got not only did they not get the cover, getting plus three and a half three three and a half, they lost the game by ten. Like this is They're a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad bad bad defense. They're
not good. So yeah, there's no way, man, I just this is this is the new NFL man in the new NFL, you don't. You don't just keep banging your head against these fucking dogs that that can't fucking bark, and I'm not doing it. Toman proved to me that you've got a little bark in you until then I'm out.
Yeah, we said four and three last week. Since twenty twenty one, four and four now as a dog three or less at home, He's just another coach that's basically the average fit at three points or less of any coach in the NFL.
The highest paid defense in the NFL brought in Jail and Ramsey, all these pass rushers. They can'st off anybody fucking like fire fire your fucking Devince coordinator, like do something you can't just well, let's just go out there and play another game and see if we turn around. No, you you got Baltimore reeling, You got them on their heels. Now they're gonna be They're coming for you. They're is gonna start stacking wins after wins, and they are coming
for you. You got to get this ship fixed or they're gonna suck you up. And you better hope that you got a wald card spot available available to you. If Baltimore takes his division or if not, you talk about a colossal fucking crash. From three weeks ago, I was like, well, this is Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's division. They're alsosly gonna win the division to where if they miss the playoffs. Oh man, you talk about a walk away season for Aaron Rodgers, this will be appic.
Aaron Rodgers or Aaron Rodgers talking about the press confidence asked, and you know what he thought about joining the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Immediately regrets this decision, I mean not yet, like like if they like this is a spot, if they can if this is to save your fucking season, spot, if they if they can beat Indy, who, like we said, they're fucking dude, they're.
So due to get their doors blown. I just I can't do it until I see it.
And other than that, they've been and.
They should have won that game or could have won that game, so like so like, I don't even consider that a hiccup. Now, I'm talking about a true hiccup where they go out and they score thirteen points, Daniel Daniel Jones throws two or three interceptions, A true hiccup. They haven't had that hey, well one one was like a like, you know, at the end of the game, kind of a you know your you're kind of fucked like really just one. It was really just one.
Yeah, that was really their only if you grade out their game by game, that was their only game where they they didn't get you know, their average available yards. They didn't get fucking like all this studden are grade like, they just didn't perform that game. This is the only one, literally the only one, okay, on this one Poweranks and Noco Actually so this was and but the BBG does great out Andy, winning twenty seven to twenty two. That's under the fifty and a half. Look, I would be
very surprised if this under hits. You've got a great offense versus shitty defense in the middle of the road offense versus Indy. The Indie defense, they're even a lower success rate the Pittsburgh. They're even worse than Pittsburgh. But Indy has a negative EPA for play on defense, which means they allow a lot of methodical drives, but they do not allow many explosive plays. So the under does have a chance here simply because of that. However, the
look at Pittsburgh's offense. Aaron Rodgers grades up flat, the running game grades up flat. Daniel Jones gains Indiana. Jones gains a point and a half of the BBG versus the shitty defense and Indies running game, which has been on fire, it gains a half a point. And if you give that guy anything extra other than what he normally gets, good fucking luck. What does he got three games already with three fucking touchdowns? This dude talking about the MVP. He is literally the MVP of the league
right now. And what's his name?
The running back Taylor?
Yes he is. I mean, he's literally the league MVP right now. He is the Cats. He is, he is what's carrying that offense. He is the fucking dude, he's one of last year.
Okay, but but well all right, fine, but like what Taylor's been there for years, He's had he's had monster years before too, and without without Daniel Jones, they're not seven to one.
So no, no, I'm not. I'm not just Daniel Jones. Well, he's had obviously the year of his fucking life.
But this is this is why quarterbacks always been MVP and running backs don't, because because running backs can have a great year and you're fucking six and ten or whatever, you're six and seven, and so like that's why he'll get he'll get Offensive Player of the Year.
Now, he'll never he's never had he'll never have a many touchdowns before. His yards per game like at the end of the season is probably gonna obviously gonna be his best season of all time. Yes, but again to your point, he also has a competent quarterback who's actually delivering footballs everywhere then allows the running game to work too.
So they have no weakness. They just have no weakness.
So like we've seen defenses, their defense sucks. Their defense is not playoff caliber. They're gonna get beat early in the playoffs there unless they can do something. Their defense is worse than Pittsburgh gres out worst in Pittsburgh's what is not good. Yes, it's not good, not good. But does it matter against this Pittsburgh offense. Probably not, because Pittsburgh's offense is very middling at best. So again I lean with you. Not gonna be a call for me.
I wouldn't be surprised the underhits, although there is an avenue for it. Again, I got twenty seven to twenty two. You know, that's about I mean, it's a little bit plus game for any on the road as far as their points go, and they've been scoring thirty plus points a game. They're the number one scoring offense in the entire NFL. On the road, that dips a little bit. But again, the advantage they have a quarterback and running back should help them get close to that thirty points.
And I don't know that Pittsburgh, even against the shitty defense, maybe they can score thirty.
I don't know.
You're gonna have to prove.
It to me.
But this is the spot. This is the This is not just Tomlin. This is a spot. Like you said, it's a huge motivational spot for Pittsburgh. We've got to get this ship right.
Well, listen, we've just talked about you got to fix the defense. We want Baltimore be one of the worst defenses in the league. And the last two games, I mean that this game is only in the third quarter, seems like they fix their defense. At least they've you know, right at it enough to where with a good offense you can kind of start stacking up with uh damn it, Oh Chicago, and they shut them down. They gave us six points in the first quarter and it was basically
a shutdown after that. So I just yeah, so you know, like you can do it, like if you have good players in their defense, which Pittsburgh fucking does. I'm not an idiot. I can see your roster. I can count pro bowlers. Okay, I'm not stupid. I know your defense is better than this. Fix it fucking just don't fix it this week because I'm probably gonna be.
On Indy but you but you know that the disparity on the coaching staff between the Baltimore coaching staff and I mean what everybody, what everybodyames is a great coach of Tom, which he's really not.
You're not. You're not twenty years deep in your career and you don't no shit about coaching defense. He knows how to coach defense, and that now I don't know X and those fix it you're you're the twenty year veteran coach.
Fix it all right, Let's move on to something they can't be fixed, and that's those ten.
N the perfect segue that is no lie oh.
And they're playing those Sandy Diego superages. Thank you for my only win last week San Diego.
That game they can't even they can't even get called LA when they give you your only fucking NFL win in the week.
That's distress, because look, I did win, but I'm just gonna say it was one of the We talked about this all the time. There was one moment in that game, and it was early. It was early. It was their second drive and Herbert throws up the zero zero. Herbert throws a pick six and we're down seven to nothing. I'm like, mother fucker, And it got replayed and it got called in plate correctly. He didn't quite catch it, and for them to overturn a pick six, you know
it has to be indisputable. It was indisputable. But then it was still like third and eighteen. They looked like shit through two drives already, couldn't get a first down, and Herbert throws a beautiful ball to your boy, Keenan Allen over the middle, twenty yards first down. They go score the touchdown, and it's fucking Katie bar the door from there. It's that one little moment, that one little moment in a game where it just he goes from
being a struggle all night. She just fucking cruising to a victory is something brought my way, thankfully to God in that one. But anyway, I need a lot of breaks in this one's they get to face those mighty Titans. Baby, and this came his kid continued to move. Although I wrote down the spread, I guess it was a joke. I wrote to my diary at eight and a half, we're up to nine and a half goddamn points that they're laying in Tennessee, Longhorn.
Take it away, much take away here. This is the free square. There's no reason to ever there's no reason to bet on Tennessee. They you know, we thought we had the dead coach bounce didn't happen. Then if it's not gonna happen, then congratulations, NFL betters. You have a free square to bet against this Tennessee team for the rest of the goddamn season. Because here's what's gonna happen. They're they're gonna keep losing. They're inth on offense, they're
gonna quit on defense. Jeffrey Simmons their best offensive player out, the cornerback they signed from Kansas City snead out. They're starting. Look, the quit has happened. This is this is how the this is how this goes. When you are a one in seventeen and you're two and six against the spread and things just keep going to ship, it's just gonna just steam roll downhill for you. Now you got a team coming in with Harball who is uh they are
they're five and three. They had they had a hiccup there for the last the last month where they where they it got derailed for for a little bit. Harball got it right back on track. Joe Walt came back. That solidified the offensive line enough. They still got some injuries, but enough for a Harball team to get it to
get it going. And then and then the kicker for me, and why why I'm so heavy on the Chargers is Harball is five and oh going going west to east as a favorite, like this is just a sweet spot for him as a Charger. Five and oh is a Charger And you might be like, well, that's not that's
not a lot. That's just as a Charger. Well in his career going back to San fran and the Chargers east to West or sorry, west to East as a favorite fifteen to four against the spread, like he just has and he's a great and it makes sense logically because he's a great coach. He understands these situational spots and knows how to how to prepare his team the
proper way. Not let them have that that lull that whatever whatever it is that teams go east to west to east and have that that you know, lackluster effort. He kicks. He gets some out of it. So it's just a smash squad. Yeah, And whatever he does, it's working. Keep doing it. Take the free square. It's under ten. This is just I mean, they're gonna win by twenty. Oh you know what, since I don't. I don't have any sounders this week. I don't have any danger zones,
I don't have any big dicks. So on no, I'm I'm hitting the ladder. I'm hitting the ladder, and I'm still challenging you to find my ladder. Drop that that that we can use. But I'm laddering this up. What's the current line? You're you pick whatever you want as a drop. You do whatever you want, and we'll get that at some point going forward. But I want a ladder.
This to one unit on the chargers at the current line and then I want I want half units on two ladder rungs up, so if we need to do it later, we can.
But yeah, I'll get to the second. So I don't have on the board for the ladder.
They're gonna win by twenty, so it's it's it's fine letter.
All right. I'll look it up for a second, all right, Okay, so I don't have a lot.
I think. I think thirteen and a half and sixteen and a half are a good good letter notches, all right.
Like the power rankings have the charges here, man, the numbers can't catch up. They can't catch up, like and I think about power Ringkings. Now, I've never had a team graded as lowest Tennessee, which is weird because they actually have one win, but they're so in aft on offense they it defies logic, honestly. And look, this is not a great matchup. Well it's a it's a decent matchup for your boy Herbs. He gains a point, but it's not a great matchup with the running game. But
it's not a good matchup. It's just a flat matchup all the way around for Tennessee, which means they're gonna do what they're gonna do, which they average thirteen points a game.
Dude, they're starting with that. Look like, here's the deal, cam Ward and God bless him, like this this is this is the worst he's ever gonna look in his career. So he just he'll be better, but we hope. So he's got to he and when they go three rod receiver set him a rookie is two of the three receivers are fucking rookies? Like, how was it? This can't happen. This just cannot abide. You cannot do this to this will not aid. This will not abide in the NFL.
You how do you put your number one pick for your future of your franchise and you roll out this bullship? This is god awful man.
Yeah, I mean I've got I do have tennis as scoring nineteen in this game. I don't know how that happened.
Six.
It's a Harbert actually throws the pick six this week. Yeah, but it won't matter. They'll still win by twenty.
Forty three and a half is the total I've got it going over. There's lots of weather coming in. I don't trust that total at all. I think this is gonna be nasty now for what it's for what it's worth before the buy home dog, which that's what Tennessee is fifty against the spread. However, I did look up. I was like, okay, but what about big home dogs for the buy like, does that make a difference? It absolutely does. That cuts down to fifty to fifty. So
it's basically Quinn flip pick at that. If it's seven or more. I'm not scared of that at all either. I would link with you with LA. I don't trust my numbers saying it's gonna go over. I don't see how Tennessee scores nineteen points.
I think seventy percent chance of win, chance of rain, excuse me, and chance to win at least the seventy percent chance to win. At least.
It's the hurricane remnants coming off that too, So will it will be win, it will be rained, it'll be nasty. The Chargers are built to play with that with their running.
Game, I know, but people don't think that. That's the thing. I think that people think, oh man, that's a West Coast team coming coming to the cold and the rain, Like no, that's what Harball built his team for this, Like they're gonna they're gonna shit stomp this team in the ring.
I've got the Chargers scoring in twenty seven, so I think that's probably holding true. I don't say how Tennessee gets to nineteen at all, so you're probably.
Right twenty seven to ten and I cash all ladders.
Yeah, I think you're probably right on that one. All right, Let's move on to those the Detroit Alliance holders in those Minnesota Vikings another team. Do they have a quarterback? I don't know. I don't know. Let's see on the preseason lines on this one, because I did grade it with your boy JJ McCarthy in.
There, so well he's in there.
Fair. Yeah, I had them five point favorites. Vegas had them four and a half point favorites. So I'm gonna claim victory here because Detroit's eight and a half point favorites now, so we were both off considerably. However, I was closer to right than Vegas was. It's just it's another actually actually just like eight point seventy five at this point, lots of nines are starting to pop, and eight and a halfs a heavy juice. It's moving to nine.
That's my point, boys and girls, Longhorn tells how your Minnesota Vikings are gonna start their march towards their division titles. I think you had them.
Yeah, it's not gonna happen. This is this is jump. This is jumping off point. This is jumping off point. I'm heavy, heavy.
Four weeks ago.
But all right, yeah it was it's I mean yeah, when he looked like shit, like that's what we can review my bad calls at the end of the year. It's fine, let's just let it play out. Yeah, Detroit, this is this is just such a smash Detroit spot. And like I've said in the past, and I'm riding these waves. I'm done trying to like get cute, trying to find perfect spots to go against a way like what, no, when's the wave gonna crash? I'm gonna catch you. I'm
done with this ship. I'm riding these fucking waves out. That's gonna be my new thing. You gotta have a reason to bet against Detroit. You definitely gotta have a reason to bet against them at home. Seventy ross the board, no matter what metric you're looking at, there seventy ats team and all the reasons in this game point to me,
fading Minnesota. You got Christian Darris a their left tackle, all Pro left tackle out, and we've seen around this league this gets so understated how important a true all pro left tackle is. We see it with we see it with the Giants. Huh you No, not by me, but it gets it gets undervided around the league. We've seen it with what's the team?
We just of the season. People don't pay attention. It just gets lost in the like, oh, this guy's out. Who cares? There's a million plays, Like people get to sensitized to injuries. Like early on it was like, oh my god, this guy's out, but like by week five they're like, yeah, everybody I know.
But but even with me, who gets into the rosters, Like even I'm amazed at how the difference between a true all Pro left tackle for whatever reason, it's Baltimore stop.
Is that possible?
Can Yeah? I think you got it because Miami can't score. But yeah, like when your left eckles out and he's an All Pro, it's just disaster time. Detroit is getting three players back in the secondary branch off of the suspension for for beating the fuck out of Juju the other safety is coming back off of injury, and of course Terry and Arnold are cornerback who's not good. But I mean it's he's a starter at least, So there's that,
and let's see, Yeah, there's everything points to Detroit. Let's just leave it at that, and you've lost probably the the teaser spot if it's if it's at nine in most books, you you know, you lost being able to tease them down to the two and a half. But who knows, maybe people will come in on Minnesota and maybe they'll respect the defense who's not that's not been
as good. So I don't know. Remember we saw we saw Detroit beat the fuck out of this Minnesota team last year with Sam Darnold with the season on the line for Minnesota and Detroit just blew their doors off. So like, it's just come on this now that is
Jabs ghost. Now it's JJ McCarthy. You can get the fuck out of here, like and watch this be the one time that that JJ McCarthy plays his fucking best game and keeps it and just fucks me all which way he's gonna suck all year, continue to suck out of this game and plays this one balls out Game of the Year. No, I don't think so. Detroit wins by ten plus, all.
Right, So I got your ladder results in here. So you said thirteen and a half and six and a half, thirteen and a half half a unit, yeah, one thirty eight six and a half half unit plus one.
Okay, yeah, I like that.
I like that, all right. Yeah, So if they went by twenty, you clean the fuck up, all right? And this one I don't have anything, but I do have. You said you gotta have a reason, you gotta go. You gott a fucking reason to bet I'm in this. I'll give you two fucking reasons right here. Since twenty twenty one, coming off the bot in your home fan twenty one, twenty seven and two forty three point eight percent ats since when since twenty twenty one post covids
in this new NFL crazy era. And then I said, okay, what about big favorites?
What about big favorites?
So since twenty twenty one, coming off the by home favorite of seven or more even worse, eight twelve and two ats forty percent. Now, if you have Detroit lefting your survivor twenty two and oh, straight up, that's pretty good. That's pretty good.
So, yeah, they ain't losing now, they're not gonna lose.
But if there's ever a spot that we keep me off of betting something, definitely fair enough, fair enough favorite for ball. That's the only reason why I don't have no I have no reason to bet on Minnesota. That's the only reason why I would not bet Detroit.
Oh JJ O little JJ.
He's coming. He's coming from vengeance baby. All right, moving on to those New York football giants, their hustling Sand Francisco forty nine ers. Let's see, in the preseason this one, I.
Had San frand minus six.
Vegas said it three and a half for two and a half. Vegas beat me badly on this one. I was really down. It wasn't that I was wrong being down on the Giants. I was so far high on Sant Franz clearly broll. Now we don't have brock Party fair enough whatever. I'll take the loss on this one two and a half. I think that's still good Longhorn and the money, but the money is starting to move back on San France.
Song cause Party for sure out. Yes, he's out, Okay, all right.
Yeah, so it's it's it's really two point seven five because it's juice two and a half everywhere, it's probably gonna move to the three, back to the three. It was to open up the game game time. So if you like saying, Frank, get him now, like the Giants.
Just wait a minute at well, look in this game. This this is the head scratcher to me, and I'm gonna I'm gonna listen to your handicap. But but I I've already talked about during this year. I do not bet against San Francisco coming off a loss. It's just that's not the spot, and I refuse to do it anymore. I think it was the Jacksonville game that I learned this hard lesson earlier in this year, and turns out
it wasn't just a one time thing. This is kind of like a thing that they do coming off a loss. So yeah, so I'm not doing anymore. So I'm sticking to that that But why is it two and a half? Like like the Giants who've lost, they lost Skataboo, who's kind of like you know me, touchdowns I do have. That dude was like their touchdown maker machine.
So he ran carry How do we replace that holy shit.
Yeah, how do you replace this ten touchdowns that he had? Like, I mean, you got to replace that, So I mean like it's it's my handicap. So go ahead, because I want to see, like, are you on the New York here?
Fuck no, san Fran, San Frank, san Fran. Now I've got san Frian winning twenty five nineteen. That would be under forty eight and a half. I think that's fair enough, simple because this is not a good matchup for either quarterback Fat Jones or Jackson dark It. But jihns Lou's half a point through the running game and again that's graded wiskettaball in there the whole time. Again, three hand for three point nine yards of carry. He literally didn't
matter in the running game. However, here's what I will say. I've been watching the NFL a long time. What that dude did matter was he was the fucking dude for that team who was their heart and soul. He's the one that kept everybody up in the sideline. I've seen so many films of him pomp the guys up, telling Jackson that I fucking gotcha fight like that dude was
literally the heart and soul of that team. So and that's for a team that's already dead for all intents and purposes, they're dead, is over, it never really started, and.
They can't stop the run like on on defense they're horrible.
So yeah, the other part of his handicap, this is a c MAT game against two point three two points to the BPG. He has got to be a c MAT game anytime it's a game, I'm rolling with it with San Fran. The Giants are second to last and defision and defensive rushing success rate. So this matchup through the game script is perfect Mac and their scheme and the Giants sucked, so it's the perfect matchup.
Okay, So so why because it's this line tick to three and now it's is a curt and now it's down Like they're not these bookies are not our friends. They're none of the business giving us free squares and free money. What are we missing this? The worries the fuck out of me because we're both like slam dunk scent.
Because it's a bad matchup for Matt Jones. And that's the only that's the only part of my handicap that says, as long as Pat Jones is to fuck me. I feel good about San Frank because the Giants have actually been okay against the past, which is why he's.
He shouldn't matter if they can control the run exactly. So I just I don't know. It feels too easy, and it makes me. That makes me worried. That's why I haven't plugged it in yet because I'm like, what am I missing? But yeah, I'm with you. I'm at two and a half. Come on, man, that's that's let's let's get that.
Yeah, there's no other way I can play this one again. I tease long her Rest got about three point nine yards for carry. Look, he's a jag. As far as running back. I hope that he comes back. I hope. And now, this injury was a lot worse than what they thought it was at the beginning. It ruptured attendon. It tore a bunch of shit up in there.
Of course, it fucking ruptured tend as it was turned sideways.
He already ran like a five five forty. So oh, look, I love the kid.
He'll still be fine. And but like I said at the beginning of the year, he has.
To be factor in the passing game.
He has to be he has to be a one to two punch with another Jamar Gibbs type guy. Like, if you get the the other guy, even coming off injuries, Scattaboy's gonna be that dude. You're gonna have something there. But they don't. They don't have the other guy.
Well that's and that's the thing that makes me more confident in San frank because it's a bad matchup for dark in the first place. But secondly, if you look at what Scatabo's where his most effective plays were, it was all in passing. If he looked at in Arizona State, I mean, I know he ran great Arizona State, but remember the Texas game.
He's fucking incredible in the passing game. Incredibly.
When did that game turn? When Scatibo caught that long fucking ball down the sideline and all of a sudden, Arizona State got back in that fucking game. And then he started to roll against one of the best rushing defenses in all the country. Against Texast he couldn't do shit for three quarters, but he caught that one ball a third whatever. Then after that the momentum started to turn. He started getting legs underneath him, and that's but him
in the passing game is absolutely an X factor. They're gonna miss him terribly, and that jackson darscan missed terribly in that it's it's not a good thing for young quarterback to lose his safety to liking like that. So yeah, I think first game without him, they're gonna struggle.
But well, since they're gonna win about three maybe four games this year, they'll have a good chance to go get a running back in the draft another like another.
One probably, So all right, let's move on to my lost Vegas or our lost Vegas Raiders, my Jacksonville Jaguars.
You can have both these teams, all right.
In the preseason, I have Jacksonville minus three here, Vegas in Las Vegas minus one and a half. So I was right. Vegas is strong because it's actually Jacksonville minus three, exactly the number. So thank you on that one. Now, this is ticking down, though, Longhorn, money coming in, money coming in on the Raiders everywhere's plus three. It's minus one sixteen or more minus one twenty. It's already two
and a half at circa. Some of the Sharper books are already moving to two and a half, two and a half and half kings money coming down the Raiders many coming into the.
I mean, which number do I get, because like, I think I'm gonna let this just be a numbers play for me, because I don't know what the fuck I get. I know what that's the I know currently which at three you're you're kind of like good luck, but like it opened at three and a half, and some of the contests at three and a half locked currently some of the lines are two and a half Jacksonville. Just dude, I mean, I think I've just let the line Like if at two, at two and a half, I guess Jacksonville,
at three and a half, I guess Vegas. I just don't how do you trust either one of these teams? Like, like, would it shock me if Vegas comes out after a bye figures out that that that oh yeah, remember that guy we drafted that that gent game. Okay, But I'm just specifically with the Raids because like the jack I think we know we're gonna get with Jacksonville a quarterback that's that's overrated, that that's gonna make some mental mistakes and just kind of like leave you one any more. Okay,
fair enough, okay, fair enough. But he's in the game. He's gonna leave you one any more. He's gonna make some miss like just head scratching mistake, some miss throws. I think I know what I'm gonna get from Jacksonville. But what if what if off the buy that Pete Carroll you know, gets this running game going. Gino Smith remembers that he's not the like thirtieth best quarterback in the league, and he's more like the fifteenth. Then then
you've got value. Now the Max Crosby thing, I don't where let me go back to the is he's still questionable?
He is?
He is questionable, they man, he I think so too. So like look at three three and a half, I'm gonna probably bang in the Raiders at two and a half. You can talk me into Jacksonville. Yeah, if you can talk under a field goal you want. You don't gotta twist my arm to go against this shitty ass Raiders team a whole lot. So I'm kind of gonna let the number dictate my which way I go on this one? Most savious, all right.
So no call by the power ringings here. I've got it going over. The forty four and a half total I actually feel kind of good about that one. Now the BBG has Jacksonville winning twenty six to twenty, I don't know. So it's literally, I don't know how many of these I've ever had. It's literally a flat matchup across the BPG. Both quarterbacks, both running backs. We're basically gonna get what we get. So this is more of a spot play for me here. That's why I like the Raiders.
You got some trends, got some trends.
They're both coming off of buy so I think, Okay, first off, what DoD the trends say? Secondly, does it match up with what we're presented from a cut because the BUYE to me is all about number one your roster, number two, well actually number one coaching number two year roster. Which coaching staff do I trust to make the adjustments off of? By more the guy that's been doing it for sixty fucking years or they got and it says duebo and just fucking got there. Probably he goes for sixty years.
Yeah.
Secondly, I got like you mentioned a veteran quarterback who's played like absolute dog shit. Gina Smith is the twenty eighth CPOA plus or EPA quarterback. By the way, we're talking about Browning and Flacco not being too far apart or you know, Browning's twenty eighth Flaco or brownis twenty nine, Flacoes thirtyeth great Mico always like wins games and puts up shitty numbers.
Like Faco so much. But like that's why you can't always just go by that.
Well no, but like not one metric, but still like he wins games, but he just never puts up good numbers. It's just his thing. But either way, but coming off of bye and you're the away favorite since twenty twenty one, twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent, not a majorly strong trend but decent enough. But coming off the Bay and you're the home dog, which is Raiders thirteen nine to one fifty nine point one percent. So now we've got a negative trend. It's a very positive trend.
That's plus two points on the Raiders ats and an Amazon A four and a half. We're sitting at three, look and they're ten at thirteen. Straight up, this is absolutely game that I was surprised you didn't have the sounder on this, and be honest, absolutely game the Raiders could steal. You know, dude games, how.
Do you hear the sounder with fucking Geno Smith Pete Carroll?
Well, yes, you know, systems bad, but Pete Carroll should be able to make some adjustments through this defense to find some way to get better through.
Remember when I said I'm done trying to guess and bet into when the wave is going to crest, I'm done with that in this NFL. I mean, look, Baltimore is blowing the fuck.
I guess in both ways because like it's okay which which.
Wave is right? Which which makes it a stick wave that has not.
Like they have not earned all these wins, is that gonna crash? The Raiders haven't exactly earned every loss.
Which makes it a stay away, which you just don't. You just don't. You just don't better, You don't have you don't have the better a game unless you're in a contest. True.
I just like the spot here for the Raiders, and.
And in the contest at three and a half, I'll definitely be banging in the Raiders and and watch Geno just just spare me to death for three hours and and regret my decision.
You know, just don't spare us into a loss, please God. All right, let's move on to talk about spare me to death. Jesus Christ. Here we go. Those Los Angeles Rams hosting those new old Saints. Oh they got a shiny new quarterback. I'm not even going over the preseason lines. It's not worth it. H Actually, I do want to take a pat Sea just gonna know. I was really down on New Orleans. Yeah, it's not worth it, Okay. Me and Vegas were so like so far off on this one, so, which is excusable.
It's still probably only like ten, right, twelve the spread? Yeah no, no, the preseason, preseason.
Yeah, yeah and a half okay, yeah yeah, but I mean that's still like five points. Yeah, so fourteen points. Uh, you can find thirteen and a half a bet online heavily juice. I mean, you're basically saying three thirteen point seven five. They gotta win about two touchdowns to cover all numbers. Long morenan, do you have the Rams covering all numbers with the fourteen? I mean, sure, get your boy I sucked shuck in his first roadstar in the NFL.
Well, well it's technically I fucking suck shuck. So you gotta you gotta put the flavor in there, and you gotta get the extra. Look, it's a it's in Louisiana. You got thir a little sauce on it.
Listening and I was trying to be fucking nice.
Nah, she ain't listening. She she she knows. He sucks. It's it's just a bad This is a bad deal. Now listen, I'm just gonna take the rams. I'm banging them in. This is this is a new NFL. Take the favorites. They're just it's gonna it's gonna run away. You. You have to actually pick your spots when you're when you're taking dogs in the NFL. Now, you gotta be real particular. It's not the old NFL. Uh. We liked Carolina.
We both kind of like that Carolina dog spot. We kind of lean towards the Raiders as a dog spot. You just gotta be careful, man. You can't go, oh well, yeah, Pittsburgh three and a half three, that's that's just that's that's old NFL. Man. We've got to adjust with it. As handicappers, you gotta adjust the way the league goes and can't just stuck be stuck in our old ways. Uh. I mean, look, give me, give me a rocking chair and a shotgun, and I'll tell you all about the
old ways. I love being an old motherfucker. But this is money on the line here, man, Money's on the line here. We gotta adjust with it. But yeah, so I'll be on the I'll be on the ramts for sure. But just fuck this game. But like a side note, trade deadline is coming up. Why has Kamara not been traded yet? I'm not sure. Like, I mean there's some there's some.
Playoff teams comeback betting on the comeback.
I cannot believe that Kansas City has not made this deal yet. Like this is the Kansas City deal that we know is coming. It happens all at least do it all the time back when they were one of the Super Bowls, you know, when they went.
Antiree like Pacheco two point on older Purchallo, it's the same thing.
Well, Pacheco's hurt and it's never saying yeah.
So it just just I'm shocked that he has a hunt again for the ninth fucking season in row.
So yeah, I don't waste time on this. It's it's I'll give me the give me the Rams.
Okay, two reasons why I can't go with you here, but I'm definitely not beting New Orleans. Don't get a twisted you are off. The buy home Favorites is twenty twenty one, again twenty seven and two. However, I was like, okay, what about a big fucking favorite. Favorites is seven or more off? The bye at home is twenty twenty one, average line of ten point four. This line's quite a
bit over that eight and twelve forty percent against the spread. Look, it's hard to come off vacation and get up just to go beat the shit out of a fucking ten can. That's probably the logic behind that. However, I will say this, if you haven't used the RAMS in your survivor in that scenario, ten point or better favorite twenty two and oh straight up Winny by ten point six points per game. So they're gonna win this game by ten?
Do they cover? Do they don't?
I don't know, but yeah, I can't. I can't go with you just because of that trend. However, if you do got the rams, Survivor, this is the fucking time was the girl's unleash the beast with the Rams? What could go wrong? What can go wrong?
Twenty two? Yeah, I wonder what the have you seen? What the circa billions?
Thing is that they don't ever? Oh how many people are low?
Yeah? How many people are left?
I can probably get that in a second. Yeah, just't they won't release the selection still kickoffs on Sunday?
Right, Yeah, it turns out this has to be.
The number one for everybody has the Rams left? If the Rams lose this game, that survivor might.
Be Yeah that ain't they ain't no shit be old for me because I'm definitely on the Rams. I got them available. I think it's the Rams and the chargers probably the highest.
I don't know, got the chargers can always charge?
That is no, this is your hardballs chargers. This ain't your old chargers. Ain't it's your charge.
They can't games, Okay, they can and the.
Special Tennessee is the worst. They're just they're just it's impossible. Yeah, it is impossible to lose. I don't want to put any bad mojo out there and say something that's gonna like just it's almost Yeah, let's we don't how bad they are?
All right, let's move Okay, let's move on to the actual game of the week. It's was let's go full bills of those Kansas City Chiefs now this one. Okay, we do want to look at preseason loss of this one. I had Buffalo minus two. Vegas had a minus two and a half Vegas because now Kansas City is up to minus well, no, they're falling again.
Okay, one and a half for Ish.
Yeah, one and a half ish Okay, so let me adjust that so Canna City back to the minus one and a half Longhorn. I have many, many thoughts in this game. I I wanted to slam Buffalo. I'll get into why it didn't once I get there. However, what do you got on this one?
Because you because you've been watching the NFL for the last seven years, and.
You you know that I've been watching the NFL for the last seve years. I would have slamed Bufalo because they owned Kansas City in the regular season, owned them, literally own them.
Well, well you where I'm gonna be.
Like, literally Patre Rome sucks against his team.
In the regular season's terrible, Well, then you should take it. You should take Buffalo then, because I'm gonna be on Kansas City. I'm gonna be on Kansas City. And there's there's a couple of reasons why. Number One, we all I mean just this is this is a normal my homes as a short favorite or dog like this. I'm not overthinking these things. I'm just gonna do it, even if Buffalo owns them. Fine, you can shake your head. You can shake your head all you want.
You can't, no, I do.
In the Raider season, sure you're.
Right now, it's literally like the wildest flipper ever seen in.
The playoffs that goes the other ways.
Never thrown an interception versus Kansas City. In the Radiar season, Holmes dows a million to Buffalo go to the playoffs. It's literally the exact ops.
So I have I have two things, and I'm glad you brought that up because i got two things to counter what you're saying. Number One, in the past, the Kansay hasn't cared about the regular season as much. They're chasing in the regular season right now, they started horrible. This is they have to catch Denver. They have to get they have to catch Buffalo to get the.
Mom I'll count that immediately. Because Buffalo has always been up there with them towards the number one seed. They've always cared about this game. They don't care. I'll grant you your general principal. They don't care most of the time. They've always cared about this game because they've always known Buffalo could take the number one seed away.
That's fine, but they're not even winning division right now. They're not even winning their own division.
But my point is in this game, they've always had the motivation. Buffalo has always kicked the living shit out. I remember when you had Kansas City last year on a teaser when Buffalo's minus too and it didn't even fucking cover by fifteen.
Okay, fair enough, But like there are no letdown spots anymore for Keannessee. They have to They have to like full through Ottle every game, which leads to the second point that Annie Reid has finally figured out after years and years of not ever it just playing old school. I don't go for on fourth downs. He's finally caught up to the rest of the league. But where I'm just gonna go for it on fourth downs on my
own territory like the rest of the teams do. And there's nothing scarier than a great team with a great quarterback that is embracing the analytics of going for and fourth down like we saw Washington go crazy with it last year. We've seen Detroit good job. We've seen we've seen Detroit do it in years past and still do it. He's embracing that. He's starting to doing more and more and more. So the arrows up and and I don't know what it is about Buffalo. What's what are we
sitting on with record wise? Yeah, it's when I watched them, I'm like, okay, the second place. Yeah, they're five and two, but they're they're three and four a t s. There's just been It's just it doesn't look and at Oliver is out in this game. You know there's something not quite right with their defense. It hasn't looked right all year. I don't know, man, Just I gotta have a reason to go and go against my homes as a show favorite.
And I don't find them other than what you said with the Buffalo owning them and that's fine, But Kansas City's building and chasing. They're building and chasing, and that's not you don't want to go against that.
Well, so is Buffalo. Look, everything was onom me for Buffalo Power and Great Buffalo fifty two and a half. I've got it graded under. I had never bet that in a million years. In this game we have Buffalo went in twenty six, twenty four. It's a flat matchup for John Wayne. But again it's a terrible matter from home. So loses two points to BPG. He plays like shit against them. Literally every game that doesn't have a do
or die circumstance to it, he just does. Now Buffalo does lose a half point the VPG the running game. I don't like that, and Kansas City gains a point and a half. However, for Jacoes Outcha goes out.
Jakos sucked. He's sucked all year. He has not been He's a non factor. It's not a good running back either way.
There's two things that kept me from playing Buffalo in this game. One, yes, Buffalo has on Kansas City in the regular season for the last four years whatever, but has been well documented on this podcast and probably this podcast only. Patrick Mahomes has not been that good of a quarterback for the last four years through the regular season. If you just look at his numbers, and I'm not saying he's not still the greatest quarterback in the NFL,
especially when it fucking matters. But through the regular season, he just hasn't been He's not been good. He's not been Paddy. But we started talking about this, Longhorn, I don't know three weeks ago when I said this is the game that Patty should be Patty again. And guess what, he went out and he was Paddy. And since that game when I said that, he's not not been Paddy. This looks like that original iteration of the Chiefs where
they just want a rough shot over body. I know that disappoints you because you don't want to seem some super Bowl again. However, if they keep playing like this, they're going to the goddamn super Bowl again because nobody's gonna fucking beat it. And the other thing that did not let me play Buffalo is hand City is before the Boy and before the buye away favorite. It's twenty twenty one, twenty and fourteen fifty eight point eight percent against the spread, covering by one point six points on
an average line of three point seven. We're at one and a half. They're twenty three and nine straight up, winning by five points a game. So now this is not the spot that I could back Buffalo. Everything else tells me back Buffalo. This is not the spot for Buffalo. And again, like you said, talking about waives and momentimum stuff, until somebody can slow this machine down that Kansas City has now come back into No thank you. I'm back
into the motive. I'm like the Detroit thing, like I got to have a fucking reason to bet against true, I gotta have fucking reason bet Againstkansas City right now. I had a reason with Detroit against Kansas City. Again, the two teams I just mentioned the game, you know, kind of turned on one play, it went the other way and then it was a fucking lancelot.
I believe that was my home short short home favorite.
He's not a home favorite here.
I'm sorry, didn't mean to throw in the home He's a short favorite. That's his sweet spot.
It was, and I'm not disagreeing with you there, but against Buffalo has not been a good spot for him. Favorite dog. It didn't matter. But again, I cannot can't. I walked in this, I walked into the week saying Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo as a dug in its like, fuck, I can't bet Buffalo. So it's one of those games is a handicaverage frustrating because you when you look at a slate and along, when you know this, you look up and down a slate before you dig into anything at all,
you kind of circle three or four games. Right, they're like, all right, I know which side I like here is from history, memory, instinct, the way things are going, blah blah blah. But then you start to dig in. Half of those fall away.
And you're like, fuck, goddamn, oh you're lucky if three you if you have three in the NFL, that kind of everything lines up for you. Just it's that yes, you're you're true, you're right in there. It's it's it's like, oh, well, can't do that one. Yeah, can't this trend, can't do that one. This can't do that one. Fucking injuries can't do that. Injuries can't do that one. It's always something.
So I'm not disagreeing with you, but I am with my whole heart hoping the Buffalo Eastest game.
Is fuck Kansas City, all right, fair enough.
All right, let's go on to those Washington I guess Redskins. What's left of them? They're hosting No Seattle Seahawks. Now, this one's not fair for the line movement. We got no Jadon Daniels, so I'm not gonna go with the preseason lines here. Vegas was five and a half. I don't remember what I was. I definitely wasn't that high. But still there's no way I was Seattle minus three, which is where we're currently sitting at as a road favorite with the most West coast to East coast game
possibly of all fucking time. M H long horn, what do you got?
Yeah, but you got a team that dominates traveling in the NFL recently with this new head coach that they have that they got from Baltimore. So I mean, I can only be can only look to Seattle in this spot because you've got a Jade and Daniels who will play? Is he is he banged up? More than likely he's not going to be, you know, one hundred percent, I think so. I think I think that's it's leaning towards him playing. And well, look, if he plays, he's not
gonna be hundred percent healthy. If he doesn't, okay, great, it's Seattle. Still. Anyways, you've got Tim Terry McLaurin. He's he's gonna be out. Yeah, it's just like, how can you do anything but take Seattle, who's been dominant on the road. This is their sweet spot on the road. It's it's counterintuitive, but uh, because they got they're they're supposed to be really good at home, but they're for whatever reason, really good on the road. So I've got
no reason. And Redskins suck at stopping the run, and you've got a two headed monster running game in Seattle. They that's true, that is true too so, but but the two headed monster running game for Seattle should eat and Donald Donald is been look again right in the wave. Give me a reason to not to not play darm I don't have one. So it just everything points to Seattle. I know it's three and a half? Is it still three and a half? Officially? Three? Even better? So so
you lose the hook there. That's just a nice little spot for Seattle. I don't know if I'm necessarily gonna like like banging into any kind of premium.
Pick or like like, but if you like Seattle, will say this money is coming in on the Redskins, and I think this game closes.
Under three, So just wait, yeah, what worries me is is that you do have the Redskins getting their you know, quarterback back. So if if he plays like he has that out of the world game, if he plays like he's he has in the past where he just like lights everything up, sure he could. He could burn you one hundred percent.
I know.
So yeah, it's we're I think we're on Seattle, both of us.
I'm not on Seattle, but I'm definitely not on the Red so and I'll tell you why. Uh I get I agree with this game of barri otis. I apologize, But on the Seattle side, this is a fantastic matchup for Sammy d. He gainst two five points this Redskins defense. Look, I said when they hired dan Quinn last year, and there I even did a solo pod on it for
the preseason. We bet the under on the Redskins, but I said, look, Ben, there's a good chance this thing could go over this total because they finally, for the first time in a long time, have a legitimate NFL head coach, and dan Quinn is that. But I also said, caution that when he was a head coach, his defense Atlanta sucked. It's like he can't influence both positions. And this defense is fucking awful and it's getting worse Longhorn by the week. It's not getting better. It started off
this year a lot better, right, it started off. We're like, oh shit, okay, dan Quinn's got a little something going there and play defense. They're not scoring a million points like they did last year. They're still winning football games. Hey, you know's got to turn around. No, he ain't got shit turned around. They have fallen off a fucking cliff. They're officially a mad team, giving up more points than they've scored. They're not gonna be able to run the
ball against Seattle. Here that who's a point of the VPG in Seattle gains a half a point. I mean, it could only be Seattle for me. The only reason why I'm not playing them again. Off a bye or sorry before the buye This is before the buye away. Favorites twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent ats on the Amazon of minus four point three, So we're over we're under that, and you're already not coming to four point three. Maybe that's enough to get you
to the fifty to fifty trend. It's not a killer or whatever.
I wouldn't just yeah, that's not massive, it's not, but that with.
Especially now you're telling when Jaydon Daniels is gonna play, he still has that magic to him, even though the offense has not been great, definitely not anywhere closer it was last year. With this defense, dude, it's so bad. It's so bad. And Sam Donald having such a huge matchup advantage to the BPG. I cannot play Washington. I just cannot do it.
I agreed.
All right, let's move on to the oh money up football. It's those Dallas Cows coming off and embarss embarrassed road domination loss for Broncos. They're coming home to face the fighting midgets of Arizona coming off of bye two and a half point home favorite Longhorn, what do you like in this one?
You already know I'm gonna be on. The Cowboys are coming like this ride, ride, the back and forth, just the carousel, or or whatever you want to say about about the Cowboys. Like you you bet against them when they come off of giant embarrassing loss or a win. You bet against them when they come up with a giant embarrassing loss. That's when you want to that's when you want to bet on them. So yeah, I'm gonna
be on Dak. There's a couple of numbers for for Dak Prescott in this in this spot twenty nine and fifteen against the spread in primetime games fift sorry, thirteen and oh get this, mos Stevison and tell me you want to go against this? Thirteen and o Ats is a primetime favorite at home? You want to go against that? Be my guest. I ain't doing it. He destroys bad teams. Cardinals are sitting it two and five. I think we're getting the midget back to play quarterback for Arizona. I
don't give a fuck. This is his sweet spot now. Now I will say this is you don't when you don't want to bet against the midget in Arizona is when he's a dog. So there's there is that little conflicting thing. But it's under three now I feel like that.
And I was gonna bring that on a handicap. We used to be so scary, so petrified.
It's under the three, but I would but I would love to see that. Well, No, they've lost, they've lost close games this year with him in there, so like if but you need more, you need more than than two and a half. You need more than two. It doesn't matter if you play well, if you if you cover, you cover. So like you need more than two and a half though, Like if this was three and a half, four and a half, six, seven, that's your magic spots with with with with a midget, but under three with that,
those numbers for DAK fucking get out of here. I'm all over the Cowboys.
Yeah, full agreeance with me here. Now here's where I struggle with my numbers a little bit. Fifty four is a total. I've got to going under zero chance whatever, fifty four. There's no Dallas scores forty game at home.
Yeah, and they might hear too.
No, that's not I'm not making that up. They've scored.
Season.
It is such a disparity between them home and road. Now, it's not a great matchup for DAK as far as defensive scheme here, and it actually is a really good matchup for the midget. But I mean Dallas defense sucks, Yeah, they suck. And it's a good matchup for the running game for Arizona. So the BBG actually grains out Arizona to cover this game. I don't care because everything you just mentioned, plus this, both these defenses fucking stink. Thirty
second for Dallas, success rate twenty eight for Arizona. You don't think this game's going over? Probably is, however, Cowboys sixth in offense success rate, Arizona's offense staks twenty six. And this is the worst for all the shit we've talked about the Cowboys the defense all season long. If you think that the Jets were the worst team, no, no, no, this is the worst offense that they have played all season. They grade out lower than the Jets, and they basically
shut the Jets down. And if you want to talk about home road splits, like I said, the Cows have yet to score less than forty points at home. They haven't even sniffed that on the road. And Arizona doesn't score anywhere on anyone. This is a cow spot for me. And then a couple of trends here we have, so
the Cowboys are sorry. The Arizona coming off of bye away dogs in twenty twenty one sixteen nineteen forty five point seven percent on average line of four point six and losing by a point, So that means they're losing by five and a half points per game. However, the other one that just this is one of those perfect coinciding trends. What could go wrong? Cowboys are going on
a bye next game. If you're going on a by game before that, and you're a home favorite of twenty twenty one, twenty seven and ten seventy three percent ats five point one, and you're covering that by two point two points per game, you're winning by seven and a half points per game. We're only laying two and a half. Everything you just said, it seems too easy, ad fucking home. It seems way too easy.
That's scary, that's fun.
There's no other way to bet this. This is the slam. The cows are coming over with loss Azona by It's a slam dunk spot. Arizona wins by thirty. Don't worry about it.
Take the loss.
It's fine. There's no way we were wrong, except when we lose on the fucking scoreboard. Yes it is. It is cows, cows cows from me here, and yeah, I wouldn't be Look, I expect this game to be forty to twenty seven and then to score sixty seven points. You're never gonna sweat the fucking total either. That's really what I expect in this game. I mean it would be cows it over all the way for Cowson over all the way, all right, because Arizona will be able
to score. They will be able to score. However, like I said, is bas Cowboy's even has been. This is the worst offense they've played all season long. And yeah, they'll still score twenty on them and the cows are This Arizona defense is shit. They're gonna score at least fucking thirty five, probably forty. Yeah.
Are they gonna score more than the six points that mia he currently has with four mans left in the game. I don't know. Probably so yeah, probably so fucking What a pathetic performance by you.
Okay, pathetic, we're looking good.
Pathetic up.
Okay, we might go to an odor not Boys and Girls. All right. I think that was it Longhorns. That was all them wins coming in the a. All right, boys and girls, something was free as the picks of the week. Get your pencils ready.
Remember I forgot. I forgot we're doing this.
He never forgets. That's just a bullshit. Co I won two games in two years i'd make up some ship too about that.
Yeah, I forgot, totally forgot.
Yeah.
Oh is it my turn first? Yeah? I always go first. I always go first.
I don't want to break up the rhythm.
Oh you're talking about let's not change the thing. Give me Indianapolis Colts minus three minus three free pick of the week.
Are they playing again?
That would be them Picts park stars up there, extra parking mat. Mike Tomman gonna get downtown and try to get a win, but he can't win any more with a bad defense.
All right, so guarantee Pittsburgh on the money line and go ahead and on all your like player props. C K if you're listening, and Daniel Jones over the one and a half interceptions. That's got shp love.
This will be the time we're going to to really test this theory. This time we're testing it.
All right, Let's go with the college free pick of the week. Oh we already hit our one tonight at the f Let's give you the other FCS pick is still sitting at this line, so it's fair. Brian and Monmouth over sixty two and a half long horn. When Brian Manmouth had limit to tell you you fucking scoring palooza and we're gonna get lots of points seventy seventy five who knows, but definitely from the sixty two and a half. Don't even worry about it. Boys and girls,
your boys still on his heaters. Wanna know already on college this week just happens to night as we're recording this, and hopefully about the old one to know in the NFL. Off the fucking hot and running start. So let's do that a long WRT. Tell me that family's Patreon where they can get all these fucking winners.
All right, be sure to grow that Patreon page Patreon dot com, slash bet, underscore fgh per Stevens with a hot, hot, hot college football package. We got a couple of NFL packages up there available for purchase, So people stop throwing away your hard earn money on a guessing game. Let the prose do that heavy litting. So sign up, tell a friend and join in on the funnel watching football, drinking beer, and never pay a bookie again.
Come on, a damn it, people, never pay a book you again, Steven Tall, I'll take your sephim