I want me some Gloryhole. Oh yeah, Hello, welcome to Feast Football Gloryhole Podcast. We'll listen to that podcast, South Cloud Streaker. Watch us live on Facebook, live, on YouTube, live on Instagram live and report it anyway you cannot vot me. We thank eaching Gloryhole set you this week.
I'm six.
I'm joined here by my good buddy, Long Long, what's up?
All right? All ride o bo ciphas Here we go, fresh off a pre recording argument about Travis Hunter. Maybe we'll get to that when the show. I always love starting the show off with a good little argument that nobody gets to see week number eight in the NFL, buddy, And that means we're basically at the half way mark. So how about a little halftime report on FGH and our productivity. I'll make it real quick for you guys. I suck, I'm not doing any good. C K he's
doing good and bo Sevas is awesome. There you go. Are you happy? There's your halftime report from FGH. But I will but I will ask you this, bo Sevs, have you ever seen anyone make being about five hundred in betting? This entertaining? And look this goddamn good. I don't think you have or you're not gonna answer. That's good because it was a rhetorical question. I didn't want you to answer. So our top football handicapper bosiphas is the money. I am longhorned. I try to be the funny.
We are FG eight, So let's bring it to him one more time. This Bosivas so hit that. But whether you are here.
For the funny, it's a question for fun. I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun.
We're all gonna have so much fucking fun.
When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn s files, you'll be whistling symphony due to out of your assholes.
Are you out here for the money?
Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil. Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. Look at the fucking smile on my face.
Here to hear, baby, you have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question? That is? What a stupid question.
You ask a lot of stupid questions.
My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money?
I'm a big fan of money. I like it.
I use it.
I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar.
That's where you come in.
That's right, Adam Center.
That's exactly where we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's patreon dot com, slash bet underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that you can bet football the right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got that TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it
is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting how.
Choice of the week. I drunk. I feel right, Donna, thank you very much, Sarious sirt to not. I am bringing a fat tire by New Belgium Brewing Company and Fort Callways.
It's like a once a year thing for you. It must be a really good beer or something, one of.
My favorite beers. And I'm drinking it's not long Horn because I'm old, I'm fat, and I'm tired. And we got a lot to get to. So let's get on with the show, boys and girls. We're gonna go over every game in the NFL in the air tonight and we're gonna get you paid with those free picks as we always do. But first we gotta get paid to do that. Oh, it's this week's sponsor. It's Texas Texas Telehealth dot Com. Let's face it, going to the doctor
fucking sucks. You gotta schedule the appointment, take time Over're just to drive their way up to an hour to see a doctor. Fuck all of that. You just call my good friend doctor West Texas hell dot Texas Telehealth dot com. You skip all that, go to the website, sign up for appointments. A little thirty minutes of less,
you're on the phone with him. He's got your diagnosed with the prescription, read and have you feeling better and knows on the best part as you never have to leave your house or work again because you can now have your script called into Amazon Pharmacy and they do a live it till you do it. Just like a Amma nick kid, I go to doctor Wes Longhorn does my parents do? And you should too, because at Texas Teilow dot com. They treat everything for the comic cold flu,
EEDBD and weight loss too. Get that olds I Think baby for one hundred nineteen dollars for thirty day supply and your consultation is always free with accepted health insurance. So whether you gotta pin this curn green a little too much size, running your thighs of yellow shit come to your nose lungs, and I is going to text to telehealth dot com right now and tell them the FGA sent you. That is Texas t e l eHealth dot com for all your medical needs. We got one
more sponsor Night Boys and Girls. Uh it's an oldie but a goodie, and uh it's by request, So we're gonna go ahead with this sponsor right now here we go right it's signed for this week's sponsor. This week's podcast is sponsored Bob who Reduced dot com. Do you have anxiety over the big moments in your life? Because you know that somewhere in the middle of that moment you're gonna have a wild mud monkey come screaming out of your ship box. The big business meeting of final exam,
your grandma's funeral. All of these are equally bad times to have a bag of ass apples fall out of your poop.
Shoot.
Well, if you're tired of having your life held hostage by your chocolate sausage, and I have your solution. It's pooduce po produces an all natural remedy for your unwanted tangy button nuts. Poo reduces a patent improven formula who's two main ingredients are peanut butter and cheese. I'm just fucking with you. I have no idea what's in this shit.
All I know is if you have the green apples splatters when it really fucking matters, or you're sitting with your daughter and you get that poop pooh, what a god damn it. If you're with the one you love and you feel that hot button but hoos, that's pour Reduce dot com co word Gloryhole for ten percent off of your first order of their butt dumpling stumpling form that's poor Reduce dot com co work gloryho for ten percent off their services. One more time. Poo reduce dot
com co word Gloryhole. Please, gentlemen, boys and normals, children of.
All, Oh my god, Okay, it's happening.
What do you think is happening right now? Excuse me? What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck just happened?
Oh?
You know what's happening. It's time for all those wins coming in the heads to Nightmber. Alright, boys and girls, it's time, dude, it's time to get into that Week eight card in the NFL. We're gonna start down the coln over the Panthers, supposed to know. Let's go Buffalo. That's the Bills, all right. Looking at our preseason line here, I had Buffalo minus six. Vegas had Buffalo minus seven. I think Vegas have the better of me. Here had a refreshment screen here. Last time I saw it, it
was seven. Yeah, pretty much seven across the board here, long Horne. I'm trying to see the Indy six and a half popping yet. No, and the money is still coming in on Buffalo. You got some seven and a half. So I was a little bit but I've admitted from the preseason I was a little bit low in Buffalo. But Carolina Buffalo taking the money here? What do you got?
Carolina's taking the money?
No, Buffalo's taking the money.
Then why is it going down?
Now going down. It's trending up towards the seven and a half. So seven is juice all the way across. Seven and a half is at minus one O three at Heritage and South Point is flap money minus one. It's minus one twelve at both ways and seven and a half. So yeah, definitely coming in on the Buffalo bills fair enough.
And I don't this, I don't have a strong one on this one. I Carolina, honestly being we got fucked on or at least I got fun because I would be all over Carolina if this was Bryce Young, which is a weird thing to say because since when is Bryce Young like a key factor? But let's not let's not also skim over the fact that Carolina's four and three this year. They're over under for wins. Was it was it six and a half?
Is that what six and a half? Six and a half?
Oh? Is this one of the and that's part of the handicap? Is like yet like Carolina, let's be honest, is built to be this Buffalo team. They could Buffalo can't stop the run. Carolina wants to run the ball. But and there's a there's even a trend that's heavy on Carolina. That that I'll talk about too, But basically it's it's do you have faith in the old man, Andy Dalton. It's basically all this this handy gap comes down to, can you trust an old Andy Dalton coming
off the bench? We've seen this work this year in the NFL with the old quarterbacks. I don't know that I necessarily want to trust any Dalton. I don't. I don't like what I've seen for eighty percent of his starts over the last year I have. It's been cringey and and terrible. So I mean seriously like he had I mean I I, you know, touted that he's one of the better backups last year, and he came in and played a handful of games and was just garbage
besides one game, So I can't trust him. And then and then you you mentioned it, Buffalo coming off of bye, desperate, desperate for a win like they've been. They've been hungry for a win for two or three weeks now. It's just a it's just a bad motivation spot for Carolina to go against a buffle team needs a win. But the trend seven point dogs at home in the first nine games this year are forty or this is not just as year, but going back over the first nine games,
it's a forty to eleven trend. So yeah, so so like so basically that's why I'm told that's why I can't. I can't sell this game because like everything tells me, go Caroline except for the ship ass quarterback, which I'll have to check both sevas don't. The quarterback does touch the ball every single play correct for the most part, like unless they do some trick play. So so it's
kind of a big deal. And then on the other side, you got you got, I don't know, m v P. Josh Allen, who hasn't had a win in almost three weeks. I'm just torn on this one coming off of by and is that a good spot and this isn't okay, so not a great spot there, but yeah, just give me, give me buffalo on straight up pick eems. I mean, I can't recommend put them in teachers because they're a road favor. That's not that's not the wong And I only do the wongs, as you know, both seas, it
is only wongs for me. Yeah, rock out with your wong out is the way we do it. But but give me those seven points as a lean and crush your fingers. That's that Andy Dalton can cham know his old man Joe Flacco, his old man Aaron Rodgers, his old man Jacobe Brissette. This is the year of the
old man bo Cephas. So I mean, come on, your fucking redheaded Stepsha'll pick one up and just and just keep it within seven points and we can get a win on the on some of the contests where you have to pick every single game, so in those contests, I'll be I'll be regrettably taking the plus seven with Carolina at home, which this has been their sweet spot. This is at home, you bet Carolina, So it's scary though it is. Uh.
A couple of things before we start here. I went through, first of all, obviously I had a terrible week last week in the NFL, so I did something different. This is only our second you're runn of the BPG, so I went through and made a grading schedule priors getting less as we went on. I think so through the first six weeks was winning like if you just took every game, the BBG said, you're winning money. However, week seven it pretty much with fifty to fifty. Week eight, Longhorn,
it went one in six, one in six. It tanked on me or sorry, week seven tank one in six. This is a week week six and went fifty to fifty first five weeks, You're winning money. Not only did it tank, the fucking totals, which had been killing it on the BBG through six weeks or through five weeks, went a little bit under five hundred. Week six, the totals went oh and seven in week seven, not one total hit, only one side hit. So that told me it was time to make an adjustment on how much
priors that I had built in. So I adjusted the schedule, and we talked about on the money recap. There's a couple of quarterbacks. I need to adjust the schedule completely, Indiana Jones. Mean one of them, just take out all of his prior because nothing mattered from what he did in New York. It is totally different.
You mean, MVP Daniel Jones. Yeah, and good call, yeah.
Indiana Jones. So I had to fucking adjust a lot of shit this way. I had to fucking adjust every algorithm we had, and I think that I got it at least close to right. As I started grading th these games because everything started lining out closer to the totals, closer to what Vegas said. So just putting it out there to start. Everything's been adjusted now power kings, including power ranking on this has Buffalo even at the seven. But buckets grader at Carolina v too, Carolina, do too, Carolina.
I've got Buffalo winning this game twenty five to nineteen. And for this game, I still did great and Bryce young in there because I have no data on any Dalton, but it can't get any fucking worse than Bryce Shunk. So I wanted to grade it at the worst.
Oh can it not? Can it not?
I mean it really can't.
And while you're you talking at home, Bryce Younger on the road, because if you if you put them together, yeah, you're on the road. Can be awful at home he's money.
No, he's still not good at home. He's not good any He's not good anywhere. He's not good.
They score like thirty points at home.
He's not good on a plane, he's not good anywhere.
Sam, I I can I can tell, I can already tell. This is just gonna be a night of us fighting. Let's just let's just lean into it. So like I'm gonna this is just gonna be what it is. So I mean, go on, keep carry on with your with your handicap, and I'm gonna look up Carolina splits at home.
Okay, you do that, so but I do have Carolina. The BBG has Carolina covering, like I said, twenty five to nineteen. Now home matchup with the quarterback again is Bridshung's numbers. He loses the point and a half. Buffalo is eleventh DSR. This defensive success rate, I'm just gonna say DSR, but it stands for defensive success rate and uh dropbacks. But it's not a great matchup for John Wayne either, dude. Carolina's defense is sneakily really fucking cut
in DSR against the fucking pass. Now you mentioned the run game, and that was a great fucking call. They gained the reason why Carolina can can cover this number. They gained three points to the BBG to the run game. And this is why I know my justins were correct because Buffalo's twenty fifth in DSR against the run. So I was like kind of grading against This is the time of year we can like take the overall stats and look through the BBG and say, okay, are they
lining up? They are absolutely lining up. Buffalo sucks against the run, like you mentioned now, their way quality run game though does gain a point through Buffalo. However, Carolina has the number one defensive success rate good defense. But the reason why Buffalo gains a point through the BBG because the bbgate grades every run Carolina struggles versus the scrambles so far this year on the on the quarterback, we know that's what John Wayne's.
Gonna want to do.
My question this is how much is he gonna want to do that versus opponent that obviously they should beat their fucking seven point road favorites. What motivation does he have to really lay his body on the rock, because if he really wants to go after it, they're gonna beat them by fucking twenty points. But I don't know.
That he really I don't think a team coming off two straight I'm think coming off two straight losses. Yeah, yeah, I don't think a team has the luxury to think like that.
Buffalo, like, he hasn't really been scrambling. They've been trying to rely on you know, the running back, you know his name, I don't know his name.
Yeah, James, Yeah, James Cook. But you know, you know, when you don't rely on what you would prefer to rely on, when you're on a two game losing streak, all that shit goes out the windows.
And the number one DSR fucking rush defense in all of football. So yeah, I think is gonna have to run and if he does, they are going to gain a point. And do that now. I talked about the after the buye us since twenty twelve, after the bye, you're the away favorite fifty to fifty fifty point six on an average line of minus four point two since twenty twenty one. So I try to take the I try to get after the COVID year because they COVID you were really fucked some of these trends. Uh. If
you're the way favorite forty four percent, not great. So I would lean Carolina here. I'm with you on that. As much as you say we want to fight, I'm leaning with you. I don't know if I'm gonna better or not, but especially with Andy Dalton. But overall, the system does great up for Carolina's to cover this game. Cover.
Yeah, and as far as like Carolina does score the twenty nine points per game, at home this year, and it's and it's awful on the road. I have to add it up, but it's it's they're in the teams and in multiple games on the road. So it ain't gonna be bb.
With thirteen points last week in fucking New York if you didn't catch them by the cap. Well, what a fucking connection about it?
It's against the Jets, and the Jets are unbedable. You should have We should have both known that because we both dipped our toes into that. More more, more of that later, we'll get into that. Yeah, so Bryce Young's numbers aren't fantastic, but he's not a fantastic quarterback, So like it's just they're significantly better. Yeah, they're just better at home. So you're getting them, Well we're not. Why are we even talking about he's not even fucking playing.
I don't know how we got off from Bryce Young tangent. He's not even playing. That's the whole point.
Well and perform, Oh that's.
What it was. That's what. Now, don't made me pull up Andy Andy Dalton's last few starts, because you wouldn't be so confident in saying he's gonna be just fine. If you saw his numbers the last sounds he started.
Yeah, this ain't.
Your daddy's TCU Andy Dalton. Okay, this ain't that.
Fucking first five years of the Bengals, and wasn't that terrible.
But he can't. He can do some old man magic that we've seen, Like we've seen this in the NFL this year. Just get back there and throw it to just get rid of the ball and don't kill your team. So it's kind of all you have to do with the old man. Just rely on your your weapons, which they have. Yeah, they'll be a good running game. So yeah, we agree, we're on. We're both in Carolina agreement.
All right, Baltimore should cat go. We got Lambar Jackson back in the fucking folk. Oh, boys and girls, let's see on this one. I had Baltimore minus nine preseason. Vegas had a minus seven. I believe it's sitting at six and a half. So again, but the Baltimore was the other team I was higher than Vegason. It was Lawera in Buffalo, So Vegas beat me on that. It is still sitting at six and a halfn six and a half. Sorry across the board, Longhore, what are you going on there.
Yeah, it's funny that you started with these two games, because these these two games are pretty close to the same handicap for me. Just like Buffalo, Baltimore is desperate for a win. They're getting some players back. Obviously, the quarterback coming back, Lamar Jackson, he did practice for the Yeah, and he practiced two days in a row, so he's definitely coming back and playing. You just got to assume it's one hundred percent until until we see otherwise, I guess.
But Chicago coming off four straight is it fo Yeah, four straight wins, and and they should prototypically be the team built to beat or at least keep this game close against Baltimore. But I can't do it unlike the Carolina one, where I'm yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna reluctantly go that way on that for the for the reasons that we talked about, I can't do it with Chicago. It's the running game should be able to have No yes, no, no,
that's not it. No, it's it's you have a desperate Baltimore team at home, and they should be able to run and control the ball against Chicago and and and Lamar destroys NFC teams. I don't know what it is. It's it's one of those stupid quirky things. They don't see him, they're not used to his speed, which that could fuck us because like what if he doesn't have what if he is like eighty five percent? That could fuck this whole handicap if he's not one hundred percent.
But but again, I just what else gonna do? I can only go off what what you know? We know, and and I'm gonna assume he's one hundred percent if he is. And the fact that Chicago it's just like the high point for Chicago, Like could you get could you buy them any higher? Right now? I don't know. I don't know that you can, So you're you're I'm selling Chicago.
It's weird because again I have Baltimore high, but Vegas had them minus seven preseason. We're sending six and a half.
They had this game minus seven.
Minus seven. Well, so I don't I don't know that.
Is this line gonna move once? Because like Lamar has.
It has moved one, it's still six and a half. Literally no juice across the board.
Well, but but also okay, think about that the line. The preseason line had at minus seven. That was assuming what these teams were gonna be, which was Chicago and eight win ish team and Baltimore on an eleven and a half winters team. Well, Baltimore sent it one to five in Chicago sent a four and two. So that's that's a factor that there's some adjustment there that that's gonna be factored in. Let's assume that because of injuries, that that it's part of the reason that Baltimore's won
and five. It's not gonna be all the reasons because they've had their struggles, they've had their issues. Let's just assume it's fifty percent of the issues. Well even but they're getting players back. Roon Smith is coming back. Some the secondary players are coming back at some point, and and they know that they have to go on this run. They've kind of been playing for this, like after the
bye whenever all the players get healthy. They've been waiting for this more man, they and they know that and this is a this is a championship at least division maybe not so much Super Bowl champions pedigree. So yet, so everything points to Baltimore in this game because I do think you're getting value. And and if Lamar is one hundred percent, he can come out there and run all over them. They won't know what's coming, and and
and and to the quarterback. To Caleb Williams, he is not They've they've been winning these games without him playing well.
Yeah, well he's had two games and then a between good and bad.
Yeah. So so I am I'm gonna land on Baltimore in this one. I like the fact that it's under the seven. I do think it's gonna close over seven. I don't know, maybe not. Maybe Chicago's just one of those public teams, like like the Cowboys, that just won't let it get to that point. You're shaking your head, you disagree. I just yeah, maybe we'll see it's We're recording on Thursday. Yeah, but I'm gonna be on both. I'm gonna be on Baltimore.
I'm gonna be on you, all right, Longhorn, this is the handy. This is the uh some of his handicap right here. I'm starting to spin real fast because because the gain is the room's spinning real fast. All right, So powering great on this Chicago, Bucker Great Chicago v. Two Chicago d Chew Chicago, and again this is all justin with the priors heavily diminished from last year, because that's been that's been fucking me. I mean, Baltimore has
been off my board for a little while because no Lamar. However, the BBG predicts Baltimore even with all the priors diminished and so basically Chicago being good this year Baltimore sucking balls. It still has Baltimore winning thirty four to twenty four. Now a couple of reasons for that number. One, Lamar brings up very well against the defensive gate gains two points of the BBG. Chicago's twenty seventh in DSR on fucking pass defense, they're one of the worst in the league. However,
Caleb be gains a point because Baltimore's twenty ninth. They fucking suck. Even when everybody is healthy, they fucking suck. Now here's the rub for me, Here though, is the running it run quality. So Baltimore gains three points, three points. This should be the game Henry actually gets on track. Chicago's twenty second in DSR against the run, now Baltimore's twenty eighth. They suck against the run. Two However, Chicago loses the point. This is just a matchup base thing
through the That's the reason why we built the BBG. Say, okay, they got to run a game. They suck at running HBL run the ball not necessarily depends on what they run and how they defend it. So what Chicago does, well, that's what Baltimore defends best. And even though Baltimore sucks.
Great example, when we teld you, you know, a few weeks go about you know, Kansas City being fucking twenty ninth in DSR versus the run in Jacksonville, but we told you ITTN wasn't gonna be shit because they defended that one particular run so well, same sort of thing here. However, the reason why I cannot go Baltimore cannot go Baltimore
these two things. This is after the buy trends, so since twenty twelve, after the BUYE and your Home and you're the favorite fifty eight seventy four and six ats forty three point nine percent or an Amazon of six, which we're basically sitting at since twenty twenty one, is the post COVID Averazon is six point four, which we literally are sitting at twenty twenty seven to two. That's forty two forty two six percent, so even worse ats and so I can't go against those trends. I'm not
going to bet into a losing number on that. The board says Chicago, all the numbers say, well not all the numbers, but all the word says Chicago. The BBG says Baltimore easily. However, my thought process is this, if you remember when Lamar wasn't there, Yes, their defense sucked, they were scoring a million points a game. This is Lamar back week one, Dusty probably not. How much are they really gonna run him? Just win?
It's a fair point, It's it's it's a it's a fair point.
I think Chicago can hang in in this game, and because.
They do have.
But the other point is Henry, Henry is gonna be a big big factor for this or he should.
Be, he will be. The only reason he hasn't been running well recently is because they've had no passing game and they get behind so quickly, and well, they get behind so quickly that they can't run the ball anymore. It's he's gonna be back to old Derrick Henry hopefully, Lamar, d I, I you're all your points are well taken, and it's kind of a toss up game for me. I would never play this like like on a you know, like as a as a top three or a top
five pick or anything. You might wi Chicago. We'll see, but uh yeah, it's it's I gotta think that at some point the I know the Baltimore offense will be fine with these players back, I know they're gonna be finely.
But like the timing thing, the Russ factor like that, that does play a factor. Yeah, I mean sure, I mean says you're right, but that and the trend by the way I started did mention and a half total. Obviously I've got a gready going over.
So yeah, it's a good it's a good overbet because Chicago's going to score. They just they have an offensive mining coach. They won't stop coming. They they should be able to have success in the running game. And we know Baltimore was school score and we just don't know about this Baltimore defense. It's been awful. I think at some point, just I'm a roster guy, at some point
this just can't be awful. I mean, the Mike McDonald, the Mike McDonald to see battle and how good that defense is looking is starting to like you can always tell how good a coaches, not only by what he does where he's at, by what happens to his side of the ball when he leaves.
And was awesome last year, like literally awesome.
Yeah, once immediately immediately after his leaving. Yeah. And then now we're in a year or two and and but they upgraded, they upgraded on defense that they had, they had better players coming in. But it sure is fucking shown well. So the so the roster on paper says, I can't I can't tackle for them. I can't, I can't go get the ball for them.
Get out there, your fucking job.
Yeah, get the fucking pigskin.
Uh oh, come on, I think both Stevens is going to get a win in the NFL tonight.
As we're watching the Chargers win thirty one to ten sweet in the fourth quarter, Longer.
Says, all the fucking Baltimore players, I need, bitch, I need for you to do your fucking job.
It's a fucking job. Do your fucking job and get the win by seven points.
All right, let's move on those New England Patriots Holst and those Cleaveland Browns. All right on this one. Let's see add New England minus eights. Vegas had a minus five and a half. I'm gonna take the win on this one. In Vegas. We're sitting at about seven right now, Longhorn, so I'll claim the victory. Yeah, what do you got on? It's seven? Man, it's pretty there's a little bit of juice, a couple of books on the seven. But the money is still coming in on New England a little bit,
so I don't know. This is one though. It could go to the six and a half by game day. We'll see. But what do you go on?
Well, it was that seven, it was that seven earlier in the week. Is that what you said?
It's a seven still?
Okay? Yeah, another one where I'm kind of no, it's nothing like that. Yeah, go ahead. The historical trends are gonna be all over Cleveland here. This is just just a no doubt. When you have a defense that good on paper and and you're getting this many points, it's just gonna be all over them. But I can't do it. I'm just not doing it. I've talked about for a good six months now, going back to last year, Cleveland's defense is not the same on the road as they
are at home, and it's not even close. It's like it's like thirty points given up on the road and like seventeen given up at home. That the splits on this defense is so drastic, you just it's it's almost like an auto play. It's auto play on them at home, auto play against them on the road. And that's where I'm gonna be. The path for victor for Cleveland is
very clear in this game. Stop the run, which they're very good at in theory and certainly at home, so that should happen in a bubble, but this is this game's not being played in the bubble, is being played in New England, which means it's a road game. So it just I can't I cannot trust Cleveland on the road to do what they need to do in this
game in theory, which should work. So I and on on top of that, Rabel and New England this year when they're it's gonna be this year because maybe I wrote, maybe I wrote this down wrong, but I heard I heard a trend of six or more points when they're favored. They're five and zero, So it's just this this, this train is rolling and I don't want to get in
front of it. And you were, you were, you stepped away for a second motives, But it's it's basically the handicap is about the Cleveland roam holed road home splits on defense. You just thirty points given up on the road, seventeen points given up at home. You just you can't ignore it. For whatever reason, they just don't travel on defense, all right.
So on this one, the power ranking has New England bucket grados for Cleveland D two, New England D two Cleveland. I got New England winning this game twenty to thirteen. So it's a no call by the BBG right on the number. It's clearly under the forty and a half. I expect both the offenses to struggle here. If Cleveland's defense can travel at least a little.
Bit, it won't do.
In point for Drake May, Cleveland's tenth and DSR on drop back, it's actually for for Gabriel it's plus a half a point. He's not good. But New England, we've chronicled this and chronicled this is their secondary is so fucking bad. They're thirtieth in DSR on drop back, they're horrible. They're fucking horrible. Now on the run again, New England loses two points of the BBG and that the DSR for Cleveland's sports that they're second in the league against
the run. But guess what, Cleveland loses the point because New England's seventh DSR versus the league. So I like the under here. It's my favorite bet. Now. The reason why I can't get behind Cleveland though, here is a dog other than the fact that the numbers just say it's suposed supposed to be a push terrible terrible terrible trim before the bye. That's the worst spot before the
buye if you're the way dog. So in twenty twelve forty three, fifty six and two, that's forty three point four percent average line of five point six and you're losing one point six points, so you're losing by seven point two points a game. Again, just like the BBG says a push. Since twenty twenty one, eleven and twenty one, thirty four point four percent losing or not losing but missing the cover by four point three points on Amazon of five point eight. This has ass whipping written all
over it. But again, because the board goes Cleveland, I can't get behind the New England minus seven. But it's the only way I would bet it. I would never in a million years fucking take Cleveland's dog here. So yeah, that's where I land on that one. Let's move on those hot Atlanta Falcons. Now, I know me and Vegas are gonna be way off on this one, so let us get into it. I had this as a pickle a little off. Vegas had it at Atlanta minus more and a half a little off. So we're both missed
big lely big lee on this one. As we sit right now, I believe it is. It's seven and a half, seven and a half pretty much across. No, it is across the board with no juice on either side. Oh, Longhorn, seven and a half. So I had a pickle Vegas, mind one and a half. We're sitting at seven and a half. So best if you split me in Vegas
is half a point game. We've moved seven goddamn points between me and Vegas towards those Hotland of Falcons, who, by the way, I think you're five hundred Yeah, okay, make it make sense.
They're five hundred with a minus tenall.
Team, So make it make sense that we were off by seven.
Points because you cannot factor quit. There's no you cannot build a model for quit. You you're never gonna be able to do it. And I don't build models, So I'm speaking right. I'm speaking right out of my ass when I say that. But you build a model that can factor in quit, and hats off to you, because we just saw through the years how it wasn't necessarily quit. Okay, a model can't factor for quit, and it also can't
factor for incompetence at coach. Okay, And we've got both these going on right here more more.
But he looks he looks like, but here's the thing.
Here's the deal though, And I've talked about this in the past. As bad as Miami isn't as much as they're quitting on this coach and this whole organization is going the wrong way emotionally, mentally, just everything's going fiscally, and everything's wrong with his team. He is not a bad offensive coordinator. He will get a job like fucking that coaching offense when he gets fired from Forrest College. No, definitely not Boston College. He will never go it will
be somewhere. Who because the fuck about Boston Boston College? Like that's a weird Like how about I don't know u c.
L at college this week?
Okay, fair enough, here's my here's my problem this game. I don't I think in a dome on a fast for whatever reason, this feels like a Miami number in a Miami spot and I cannot get there just because I don't. I don't like to go against quit. I don't like to go against Turmol. But you know, if you're in a contest where you have to pick every game, man, I'm personally reluctantly gonna be on the seven and a half, seven seven and a half wherever you get it at
your contest. I hate it to death. I fucking hate it to death. But a dome fast track, can they just score enough? And like you said, against Atlanta Tea, it's not that good. So I don't know, man, I'm leaning towards Miami and the points. I would never put it in like a serious contest like like where you got to pick five five picks or anything like that. But yeah, man, I don't know. Call it a call it It just a longhorn calling his shot on a team
that is quitting. I think they keep this one close because they're good, but because Atlanta is just not goingough to bury a team by you know, eight, eight to double digit points, I don't know, just that probably leads by thirty, but I'm taking the points.
So you talked about a market earlier. Do you not think we're not at the bottom of the Miami market?
Like it has to be and it just it has to be. I mean, like that's it is.
Still how much worse does it get?
Yeah, and the infighting and like can you imagine like the week of Miami Dolphins, like in that building, what's going on with the coaches meetings? And then.
Like, yeah, he's a smart dude, but he's such a fucking nerd and a bit like he's he can't walk in like a Bill O'Brien in fucking commander room, Like he can't Avraibel, like he can't just walk in it' say no, the guys, you know know.
What about some people are built for brilliant coordinator roles and some people are built to be to be the the CEO head coaching and he's not. But I wish I don't know who's doing. Who is the Amazon? You don't how they do the the hard knocks end season thing. You know who that is? Who is it this year? I don't. I don't even remember.
I don't know.
Yeah, I hope it's fucking Miami. Please get in this please get in this building and get cameras on this fucking disaster train wreck. So but yeah, I'm on the I'm on the train wreck. Plus plus seven plus seven and a half.
All right, so powering is here again. Everything's been justice. It's actually no call because Miami has been so fucking bad. The Buggets are on Atlanta, the V two's and no call, d twos on Atlanta. I've got Atlanta winning this game through the VVG twenty nine to sixteen.
And a half. That's an ass.
Yeah, well here's the reason. So this should be a good game for pendis Miami is thirty second, dead ass last and if it is success rate against the past. Now, Longhorn, you talked about this, we did the preseason. You said great past rush or a great secondary what makes a great team and you said Miami's because they've.
Got the pass rush and they don't.
Well, it looks like the secondary kind of matters because they're dead ass fucking last.
Now I know, but the pass rush has been non existent, like like the players that they have that should have been a good pass rush Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb.
So that, but that, but that spoke to exactly what you said, because you said it brilliantly in the preseason. I remember, That's why I wrote it down. You said, is it the past rush they get?
Yeah, quickly, so maybe they are. They are good, but it doesn't matter because they're just everybody. Yeah, yeah, I hear what. I hear what you're saying. I hear what you say, because yeah, these are good players like like Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Matthew Judon, these are these are players that have gotten to the quarterback for years in the NFL. Like, what's going on? They suck? What's there do you have Miami's Let me see if I can find their pass rushing grade here on PFF.
We look for that. I just think your overall point was absolutely correct, but it just needs to be caviy on it with ef fact, like you have to be able to at least cover for a second. Now you gotta cover guys for like.
A second, their second worst, second worst pass rushing grade. Oh my god, but let's go to the coverage grade. Let's see where that's at. Maybe this will surprise us.
Can't be good, it's third worse.
So yeah, it's just it's a horrible fucking defense. Horrible.
I think, I think worse than tandem. Though. I think that you're right on your overall premise that the pass rush probably is more important. But I think that we've devalued the cornerbacks to an extent that we probably shouldn't have because you have to at least be able to cover for a second. I mean they I saw a whole thing on Michael Parsons today now that he's finally healthy, and you got like eight sacks or whatever you got in the last game to close the game against Arizona.
Every sack he got was like three point five seconds. You have to be able to cover at least three fucking seconds, and they absolutely cannot do it. So I don't give a fuck if you got Miles Garrett. If you can't cover for three seconds, you can't get to the quarterback from the snap, and unless you just are a free rusher, and they blew a you know, just blew the block assignment. You can't get there in three seconds, less than three seconds, like you have to be able
to cover at least a little bit. That's on the away matchup for to a terrible matchup. It loses two points of the BBG. Atlanta thirteenth and this defensive success right against the past. So they've been, you know, better than we thought they they're better we thought they were. Now the home run quality though this is a little bit surprising. They lose half a point to the BBG now Miami, which speaks to your point early that you
thought this was a great defensive line. They're fifteenth in DSR against the run and they've been getting run on a lot because you gets blown the fuck out a lot. So to be better than average, that's pretty fucking good. So they ca have an avenue to hold you know, bijon two not so you know, not so great of a game. Now Atlanta grades out flat, but Atlanta is
the thirty first DSR run defense. So on this track, as you just mentioned, with a chain who is built for speed, my aggie boy, this could be an avenue for Miami to cover this fucking spread because they could be able to run against. This defense has been terrible. It's the run on this fast track. They're built for speed. Everything that coach logically does is built off speed. A chane is nothing butt speed. That's where I'm at overall, I'm just waiting on the money to settle on this one.
It's a toss up game for me right now. I could totally take Miami. I could buy a piece of that fucking rotten apple again and kick me in the balls. We'll see. But I'm just waiting on the Monday to settle on this one. I'm up in the air on it. I see an app, I see an avenue for Miami to cover this game.
It's Pennis.
It's Pennix's. She should have one of his better games.
Yeah, he's gonna be fine with all those weapons. Yeah, it's gonna be like a thirty to twenty seven type type cover for Miami.
It's gonna have to go. I mean, I've got it in a no call four to four and a half. It's for us to cover, which is strange to save for the dog, but it's gonna have to go over that total really from yeah, city avenue that Atlanta doesn't score. All right, let's move on those damp Philadelphia Eagles. They're hosting those New York Football Giants, all right. Uh Me and Bason be a little awful on this one too. So I had Philly eleven point favorite. Vegas had him
at ten and a half. Oh see, we're currently sitting at seven, seven and a half. Juice to the seven and a half though, so this one could come down to seven easily by game day, even crossed that line longer, all the money coming in on New York.
Yeah, I don't know how you can't you you gotta have a reason to fade this New York Giants team at this point of the year. You just you, Yeah, well you can. You'll have your You'll have your shot because Philly has given you nothing but reasons to kind of fade fade them. So AJ Brown didn't practice today. We'll see kind of what's going on with that. I mean,
I'm sure he'll play, he's kind of a gamer. But there's just there's no way I'm betting, Like, especially when you're getting seven, seven and a half points and they already beat them this year, which you could say, oh, well they're dude, you know, they're not gonna they're not gonna beat them twice, and they probably won't. So yeah, put put Philly in all your teasers and and all that good stuff, because Philly probably will win this game. Will they win by seven, eight points or more? They
don't do this, They just don't. They don't boat race people anymore. And they can't run the ball, so even if they get a lead, they can't close it out by just running the ball. So the back door is always gonna be open for whoever they play. And when you got a team like with Jackson Dart who's just you know, making plays and doing things, it would have to be a total derail, which could absolutely happen for Jackson Dart one of his He could have one of
those rookie three interception games. And this is fucked immediately. Sure that could happen, until I see it. This is a team that you bet on, and Philly is a team that you can't trust to to put a team away with margin. This is an easy call. Give me the Giants in this one, all right.
So power Ragings justin have Philly bucket grade though Giants B two Giants D two Giants BBG has this game grade out twenty two twenty Philly winning, so that's slowly under forty three and a half on the total. However, it's not a great game for Jalen Hurst, but nothing really is. It's minus half a point. The Giants are sixteenth in DSR, right about average against the past, Philly seventeenth and DSR Jackson Dark grads up minus one point
just for a matchup standpoint, it's about even there. However, here's what I will say about this game. This is my number one takeaway in this game, other than the trends about to give you. If if sakwon, Barca does not go the fuck off in this game, Philly fans, your Super Bowl hopes are done. Just forget about it. He grades out play and again I've taken out all the priors, so this is just not all the priors,
but most of the priors. So this is mostly graded on the shitty, shitty, shitty season he's had, because I know I've been overgrading him all year long based on the priors had built him in preseason, So this is just mostly based on the shitty season he's had. He gains three point five points through the BPG, which in the running game that is fucking tremendous. The Giants are horrible against the run twenty seventh and defensive success rate horrible.
Now the Giants can a point for Philly, who's also horrible by the way against the run thirtieth in DSR, which is why the score comes up so close to twenty two twenty three the VPG. So does Philly cover to the Giants cover? I don't know, however, what I do know is my main takeaway, and I just want to everyone remember this. If Saquon Barkley does not fucking have the game of his of his year on this game,
then this running game is broken. He's done, like not maybe done for his career, but he's like he's not gonna have a great year. This has to be the game where he breaks out and does his one hundred and fifty two hundred yard you know thing that he can do. We've seen him do it.
Now.
Here's the trends, and here's why I can't even though my board says SAT the Giants, the numbers says SAT the Giants. I agree with you everything you said. Here's what I cannot and will not bet the Giants since twenty twelve if you're going on a buy so you're before the buye home favorite eighty four fifty seven to two fifty nine point six percent on an averazon of minus six since twenty twenty one after COVID twenty six and ten seventy two point two percent ats. I am
not betting against that. I'm not going against that period. My board says you agrees with you, my numbers agree with you, everything agrees with you. I am not betting against those two trends, no fucking way.
So we got a numbers versus trends matchup.
Yes, and I'm as much.
Usually Usually i'm the trend backer and you're the numbers backer, and we're opposite.
Here, we're absome here. I'm I'm not betting against a seventy two point two percent. I mean, even though even though I lost on a ninety one percent probably ability last week, I'm not betting I guess a seventy supercentrid. I'm not going to fucking end. And for the fact that, like I said, this should be the Barcoll game, this should be well.
He had He averaged four point eight yards to carry last time they met, which was only two weeks ago. So yes, this this is going to be his spot. If if they can get a lead and lean on him and he goes for one hundred and ten hundred and twenty, it's it's he's.
If he goes for one fifty seventy five and Jackson Darthrow's three picks, well you can't predict.
That, Yeah, I mean that went about thirty when he's talking about That's.
What I'm saying, like, yeah, but I see that probably more likely than what the BBG spits out.
Oh, then you should have bet it on a ladder. You should be playing Philly on a ladder then maybe for.
A small unit. I'm not even on a small unit. But yeah, I agree with you, but I can't. I can't do it. I cannot go g man in the fucking heartbreak that they just went through, like that has to be some sort of whipping too.
Yeah, there's probably a little hangover there, but they're a young team, so I don't know. It's I can't. I could see that either way. Fair point though.
All right, Let's move on those SNATI Bengals host those New York Jake.
M Placer bets j A t S. Place your bets against everything they do, all right.
I had this at Cincinnati minus seven. Obviously there was Joe Burrow in there. Banks said at seven and a half. We're sitting at six and a half. Longhorn. I think it's still pretty consistent across the board and the double check. Who the fuck are the Bengals? Come on, Bengals, Oh are yep? Six and a half.
Yep.
There's really no juice either. So now they're at six at Westgate, the six at Bobato. So I'll take that back. It has moved. I popped its six, so us take it back. It's moving down, money's coming in on the jets. Strange.
No, it's not strange at all because and I'm I'm actually curious to hear what you're gonna say, since you're saying that's strange because all of the trends, all of the models are probably all gonna be on the jets here, and I ain't doing it like I'm not well, I should have rolled down the trends because I heard a million trends this week. They're all on New York, so so it's gonna and and yeah there's windless, Yeah the windless yep, those are that's part of it, which which
that's huge. That's that's strong. I mean, that's a that's a real trend. I can't okay, yeah, it's fine. Look, I don't give a ship like I am not going I Look, I've talked about this head coach, the dee I hire of Aaron Glenn for since the preseason, since the summer. I've I've been on this though. It's not like it's not recency biased.
It's not like actually, actually since you've been I'll try to get like some recordings of that coach in his interview actually got this. Look, you're not gonna hear this anywhere else, this exclusive say FG interview.
I ain't asking for the world here, I'm just asking for eight ball and two million dollars.
That's all he asked for when the job he should have he should have asked for some better coordinators because he can't coach. So like an eight ball, two million dollars and the best coordinators in the league that may have gotten a job done. He can't do it himself, so it certainly would have got a job done. I don't know about coaching, but an a ball and two million dollars will get a lot of job done. It just ain't gonna get any wins in the NFL. And and look here's the deal we lost. We lost the
free square in Tennessee with with that that ship. We watched that shitty head coach for almost two years of a free square, and time after time before it became such a pattern of me betting into Tennessee because you're getting a great number. Oh, you got all these trends at this number, this is the spot for Tennessee, time and time again, just pounding into it. Me myself then fell for that trap ahead of the gift. Yes, guess what,
we get a fucking gift from the football gods. We have another incompetent, horrible head coach that's gonna be for at least another year. He won't get fired until this time, probably next year. You have all this time to throw away all the trends, throw away all the numbers, and say I don't give a shit. He sucks. You cannot win with the incompetent head coach in the NFL. Not to mention, they don't have a competent quarterback. They don't
even have a competent quarterback. You got incompetence at coach incompetence at quarterback. I don't care what the numbers or trends say. I'm betting against New York Jets every single fucking week. I'm just doing it and I'll win. I'll go I'll go ten and two the rest of the year betting against the Jets. I guarantee you I will.
All right, So I'm not even going go over the numbers. I'm just going over these trends. This is This is on the Jets, by the way, So.
The pro the pro side is the Jets. Let me just before I'm glad that we're in agreement. That's why the numbers going down. The money's coming in the pro side is gonna be the Jets, I'm telling I'm just telling you right now, that's where the That's where all the sharps are gonna be.
We've been there the whole fucking year. And how much money they are to long I know I jump off because of that. But this spot in particular, so you're going to the buy you're an away dogs in twenty twelve,
forty three, fifty six and two. It's the worst spot before the ball like usually before the buye excellent spot forty average a lot of five point six since twenty twenty one eleven and twenty one thirty four point four percent on an Amazon four point eight and not covering by four point three points, which means they lose by ten.
And I'm glad you mentioned the winless thing. I pulled that just to see if your winning percentage is several and it's twenty twelve and on and it's week eight exactly, so in other words, right, you're seven, I want to see right in the middle of the season because later on, because when I pulled it first, like week eight or later,
it was a pretty good number. I was like, okay, well that counts for like people that are owing twelve or thirteen really gonna win a game something in the middle of the season, in the middle of this shit storm to twenty twelve. I want you to guess, Longhorn, you can guess straight up ats whatever. If you're oh and seven week since twenty twelve, what do you think your record is? There's been eleven games eleven? How many games? Straight up? How many games? ATS?
I'm gonna say, what one in ten? Straight up? I'll just I'll give one win, okay, And god I mean, if you're I'll triple the win. So three and.
Eight, that will be two and nine.
Okay, so pretty close.
Yes, just give me, give me the Bengals to win by a million, and the Jets will go into the week and die and the bye we can die. Yeah, it's a terrible.
Spot and nothing that they can do. They can't fire him, they can't fight. So so this is a free square. Take the free square for the rest of the year. It's not gonna win every single week. They will get You know what, what's their ATS record right now? Hold on, I got it. The Jets are They're three and four ATS, so it's.
You know, they have won one game this year. They didn't win me last they couldn't win when they only gave up thirteen points.
But but but now it's starting to set in the the the dam is leaking, the ship is sinking, and we're about to see one of these runs like Tennessee was on when they had their shitty coach of just incompetence and losing, losing, losing. So yeah, we're glad we're on the same Southern go Hey, Bengals will be four and four when they win his game by the way four and four, and Joey B technically could come back at the end of the year.
I think they stick with Joey up. That's what I think.
Oh boy, oh boy. I mean, hopefully he learned something like in all honesty, hopefully he sat there and he's watching and he's learning something from the.
Old men, Like, Hey, let's watch the old man just delivered the ball to these two awesome fucking wide receivers. How about to throw the ball in time and hit your back foot.
Fucking just throw the ball a seven yard out or a seven yard slant. It's I think if you get seven yards of Playbocephas, you're the math guy, I think that's pretty good, right, that should met.
You a first down every place. So yeah, that's not bad.
Figure it out, Joey B. Figure it out.
Figure it out, all right, Let's go on to those Houston, I said, Houston of the age Texans, those little Sand Francisco forty nine ers. All our preseason, I had Houston a dog by one. Uh Vegas had Houston dog by one and a half. That's flipped around a lot of injuries, so that's understandable. A little three point flip there. Houston minus the let's see where they're at right now. Uh they are.
Texas Texas Texans. Uh, well one and a half two and a half. I don't know, it's kind of tough the call actually all there.
Some there's something up to two and a half and a half. God damn it, two and a half.
This thing could be maybe going to three.
Yeah, this is fucking me on my, on my what I want to do with this game.
But so, I mean consensus, let's call it too, I think is fair.
So Houston modest, okay, while I'm doing my handicap because this was going to be like a ladder situation like I did with Cleveland last week. If you missed it last week's oh you like Sam frand this week? Huh yeah? So well, I mean it's always a bad call until it's a good call. I mean, that's just the way it is. That's why you're getting a lot of Major plus money on them when when they when they hit, well, I'll pause on that and just and just I'll wait
to hear your part. But in this game, the underlying numbers for Houston are going to be way better than than than what their record is.
Is.
Like, like I me know, you can tell me what you say, but they really are they're not. They're there. They should be by a lot of matches. They should be a five hundred team. And they're two and four. Is that the record? Yeah? Two and four four? And San fran they're five and two And is anybody Is there anybody that watches them and thinks they're a twelve win team? No, there's not. No. So so you got you got a conflict and what these teams.
Act full transparency? I don't, I don't really You're heard my right up. I'm still torn on this game. The latter thing though, just what I'm looking at the stretch.
Now, well almost I almost can't do it anymore because because this this game wasn't minus one, like in all transparency I put out to clients at at A at the money line, which is minus one twenty, it was minus one.
I don't know what. I don't know what to do with this game.
Yeah, so just to finish mind and then I'll hear what you Last week San Francisco performance defensive specifically, that was just an all time I you know, sometimes you just gotta take your hat off. We talked about the great coordinators with the offensive guy in Miami.
Solid a young quarterback on the road, like everybody sends like Pennix is not still a young quarterback in this league. His first year full of start, and he's not been great. He's not been terrible. I don't dispara the kid.
But he's he's definitely better. He's better at home than on the road. But I don't care. You have Drake London, you have uh maybe the best running back in the league, and you have Kyle Pitts. They got held at ten points like that. With with the defense, it's been riddled with injuries, their best players gone. It was amazing that
that was the hats off performance. Now you can do that to like at some point, these injuries do do factor and you can have a great, you know performance, you know immediately after some of these injuries, and and that's that wanes as time goes on.
But.
Overall it's not yeah in spurts. So like long story short, I think both these teams are gonna get closer to what they really are as the season goes on. Will it happen here in this game, I don't know, We'll see. I'm betting on it obviously, So I think so. But since twenty twenty three, san Fran this is this is the strong part of it, and wild like it so much because of the spot. Since twenty twenty three, San Fran is one in thirteen eight against the spread following
a win. They don't They're not good against the spread off win. Now. I talked about it a couple of weeks ago. I talked about a couple of weeks ago, because they've been burning me because I've been I took San Fran against jack against Jacksonville, I took them against somebody else I can't remember. Coming off losses, you don't bet, you do not bet this team come uf loss. That's their sweet spot. Their bad spot is coming off a win.
So that's what I'm And then in the last nine games versus a defense that allows seventeen points for fear, which Houston is the last, I'm gonna repeat it. Last nine games, and against a defense that allows seventeen points or fewer, they're one in eight ats. It's just a spot. Now, I can't ladder like I wanted to because it's already have to two and a half, I guess, so I was gonna ladder to two and a half. I was gonna ladder.
There's still ones, there's still one and a half straftans half.
I just don't know the payoff is gonna be that, Like, like, what's the payout to ladder to three and a half? I don't It's probably not gonna be worth it. You're right, it's not gonna be worth it.
Yeah, I'll pass.
On the ladder, but this was gonna be a lot of situation, and I'll pass.
I just don't like the ladder. And then here's why. So the power of grade again, everything's just as San Francisco buck grade. There's no call D two v two. These teams are so fucking close. Now I've got San Fran winning this game twenty three to twenty, slightly over the forty one and a half total, which, first of all, that total should tell you fucking everything. Both these offenses are gonna fucking struggle. Yeah, the home quarter matchup, Stroud
lose the point and a half. Now, San Fran isn't good against the pass their twentieth r that's a very matchup base where what he does well versus what San Francisco does well. However, Mac and Cheese minus two points of the VPG. Houston is excellent in defense, second in DSR against the past. This defense is just fucking great. There's no way other to say it. Now, the home run quality is flat for Houston. San Fran is twenty
third in DSRs. Not gonna get the run. But Houston is the dead ass last rushing team in success rate in the entire NFL. They cannot run the fucking balls. Even though San fran socks against the run, Houston can't run on anybody. It doesn't matter now. San francis aut flat against the run. Also, Houston twentieth in DSR, so that's where the weak spot is in this defense. But San francs twentieth in offensive cess rate, So I gotta think that's gonna improve, maybe if you know Siemac gets
his groove on. But bastly it's weakness versus weakness, and that's exactly what my right up is. So my right up on this. Houston has two wins on the air. They're versus the Titans and Baltimore for their first game without Lamar. San Fran is the sixth overall offensive success rate team in the NFL. Houston is twenty six. This fucking offense for Houston is as our buddy Dom likes to say, fucking track or what does he say is a trash truck juice. That's what they are. But on
the flip side, Houston is seventh defensive success rate. San Fran is twenty six. So this is literally a tale of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
Something's gotta give.
I mean, I might be wrong on this one. I lean sand Fran, but only because Houston is gonna have to prove to me that they can beat a real football team because San Fran is at least real on the offensive side of the ball. They had not beat a real football team all fucking season, so they're gonna have to prove me they can do it. They're are at home, so I do understand that it's not a
huge thing to me. I don't. It's the reason why I don't like the latter situation because I don't see either one of these teams being very successful on offense. I think it's a nasty you know, like I said, twenty three to twenty game, you can flip it either way.
He's well, when this gets to when this gets to two and a half, then I'll probably pop san Fran into a teaser take them upto eight and a half, and.
I like that play.
Yeah, ugly low scoring game.
Yeah, yes, I love that player. So that's that's why I like Again, I can't get this. I wanted to go into this week with a strong opinion on this game because it's just two teams that were I won't say passing in the night. But again, san Fran has survived off of grit and coachy. There's no doubt. As much we love the coach for Houston we do, there's no doubt san Fran has the coaching advantage in this game. They have the better offensive coordinator with Shanahan the defensive coordinator.
I wist say he's better than the defensive coach for or the head coach for Houston, but he's at least.
Is equal, except and I agree, except in this particular spot. It's not their spot with the trends. The trends I just told you, Yeah, so that might neutralize some of that, and that.
Probably absolutely will keep you off from betting San Frand I'm glad you told me that because I was about slamming man to be honest, just because these are basically team even teams, and I trust the coaching staff for San frand more. But that's what you just told me.
Those are strong trends. Those are strong trends.
Strong fucking trends. Because again, Shanahan, he's been there for I don't know six years now. So that's not Johnny come blately bullshit. That's that's real shit.
So we'll be talking about this game on the Monday recap podcast for sure, because I'm I'm going in on Houston. I mean, what could go wrong? Going in on a team that can't score. I can't score, what could go wrong?
But against the defensive sucks, Yeah, we'll see that's the thing. Like that Devense sucks, but they can't score. San Francis offense has been unbelievably fucking sixth overall in the league in success rate with all the injuries, but against a great fucking defense. Again, it's strength strength, weakness, weakness. It's a true So I think this number is fair. I think it's a great toss up game. It's gonna be a fun one to watch for sure. Yeah, A let's
move on those Newallands Saints hosting those tamp Uh Bakers. Okay, this one, I had Tampa minus five, Vegas had a minus five and a half. I'll claim the win small win over Vegas on that one because I think we're sitting at for if I get my mouse to scroll over, I think we're sitting at it's dive bombing basically four four and a half at DraftKings three and a half, a couple of different places. But let's say for the Circa and four at the Westgate. No juice, So let's
say Forest Fair. Let's call it four points for Tampa Bay as the road of favorite. Here a Longhold, what do you got?
Oh both? Stevis you better get over to that media settings on the asset side because I'm feeling a little dangerous in this game going against Baker. This is going to be the Texas Telehealth dot Com danger Zone game of the week.
Before you started. Okay, I'll say this Number one, Longhorn has been fucking rocks all these danger zones all year. Last year or last week I think was maybe one of two losses you've had the whole season.
Yeah.
So, but number two I'll say this too. Usually it's you're betting on Banker. You're going he's your own ship. I don't like it. I already don't like it.
Well, you'll like it when I get into this that this is not Look, Baker is awesome, and but let's be honest about the situation. They've been winning even when they were much more healthier than they are right now. They've been winning by back doors, last second wins. We talked about it at Naudge and they're a really good team. We like them a lot going forward. But that's going forward. We're playing this week. Mike Evans got hurt last week,
so Abuka still hurt. He played, He's clearly not the same. The running back gone for the ear that hurts, That hurts big time. Buck Irvy's still not back. And But but the selling point because like all these and and here's the deal, I hate the fact that I'm going against Baker coming off a loss, like like Baker, come, We're just doing We're just doing one unit on the on the line, nothing, nothing crazy. And that's the respect
that a Baker coming off a loss. Like if Baker was coming off coming into a like a three game winning streak, I might flirt with some money lines here, I might flirt with some money lines, because like that's that's when you want to fade Baker when he's you know, but but let's let's be honest. Fading him is a favorite. Fading him is a favorite is a good spot anyways. And here's the trend seven and fourteen against the spread. As a division favorite, it's just not his spot overall.
You really want him as a dog anyways. That's that's just always his money spot a division favorite, that's not where you want him at all. So but again, don't don't go crazy because he is coming off a loss, so you know. And and at four am I getting graded at four?
Four?
You know, like that that's a good number. I think this is going to close at three and a half? Well, see is that what you're that? What you're thinking? This is at least going to go to three and a half, Like it's been dive on me open at six. I think it's dive on all the way. Yeah, so so goodness, way you can take the four, take the three and a half, don't take the threeable Yeah so yeah, I'm on I'm on New Orleans here, what could go wrong? Again?
Taking New Orons? Now they are at home, so that's should that should be a helpful factor, but you know it's it's always scary when you're betting, when you're betting Spencer Raller. Like again, this is another Oklahoma matchup. We had oakling matchup last week with Spencer Raler and Kevin Williams. We got another oak glowing matchup this week.
God damn Oklahoma.
A lot of Oklahoma quarterbacks, too many, too fucking many. So yeah, give me, give me New Orleans and just just keep it close in the Orans. Can he just keep it close? I don't know, we'll see.
All right, So power Grigrada has Tampa Bay on this one. However, the buckets are all over New Orleans. Money's coming all over New Orleans VT Tampa Bay D two New Orleans. I've got Tampa Bay winnings game twenty five to twenty three, the Old Runners forty seven. So that's a no call there by the BPG. Now the quarterback matchup for Spencer, it's flat, that's fair enough. Tampa Bay is twenty fifth
and DSR against the past, so not very good. But bad news on our side is that Baker gains a point in half and New Orleans is twenty fourth in DSR against the past, so he should be able to and again just reiterate, I've taken out muscle last year's priors is what they've done this year through all the injuries and all the bullshit. So it still should be a good game for Baker. Now here's my fear in this game. It's gonna be very difficult for New Orleans
to run the ball. They just had the best running back, Longhorn.
Well, they had the hammer like like the thunder and lightning Kendrick Miller. They had the hammer go out and they got. They still got tomorrow.
They lose half a point here and Tampa Bay is the fourth best defensive success rate rushing defense on the season so far. So I don't like.
That, and I don't like that that.
What I don't like is Tampa Bay gains a point and a half now New Orleans thirteenth, so not bad. So it's more of a matchup base where they win through the BBGU here for Tampa Bay. I don't like that either. Here's the other two things I don't like. This might stop me from betting New Orleans, although I do lean with you they're going on a bye Tampa Bay is and if you're going on a buy, you're
the way favorite. Since twenty twelve, forty thirty four and one, it's fifty four point one percent on an Amazon of four point three. It's almost like Vegas knows what they're doing. And then since twenty twenty one, nineteen fourteen and oh, fifty seven point six percent of the trend gets stronger on an Amazon of three point seven, which we both think this line's probably heading towards thirty and a half.
It's almost about Veggas knows what they're doing. And the straight up winning percentage is seventy one percent on both of those, which is above league average for favorites. So that scares me enough. I might not bet New Orleans. But everything the numbers, everything with the market says, everything the money says, says New Orleans. So I'm with you in theory, I wouldn't. I would not bet Tampa Bay. I'll say that I want to buy New Orleans. I really do. But there's a couple of things there. The
running game is a problem, and then Begger. The fact that Beggers should have a pretty good game also a problem. But the fact that Spencer shouldn't have a terrible game because Sambo's defense is pretty bad against the past. I think that should be enough to keep Tampa, to keep New Orleans the cover. We've seen him at home. We just thought about him Monday. They're very fast at home. On the road, they've lost by double digits every fucking game. So if you're gonna bet New Orleans, it's got to
be here, it's got to be at home. The only thing that worries me again those trends, basically with the two matchups on the running game for Tampa and the passing game. I don't know.
They lost. They lost not only the running back Miller, but Eric McCoy, the center for the year too. So it's already a not a great offensive line, although it's not looking at least at least grade wise, as bad as it has in the past. So maybe some of the rest of those first round picks, they're all maybe they're starting to come in to form a little bit, so they're gonna need them for sure.
All right, let's move on to those Denver Broncos versus those Dallas.
Yeah, coming off a.
Blowout, Coming off a fucking blowout there, kid, all right, I was way off in this one. I had Dallas plus six and a half, Vegas had a plus four and a half. Of Vegas gets to win on me here because I believe we're sitting at three and a half. Uh yep, across the board three a half juice three and a half though, So there is there's a three popping at Bobata three at circa actually now minus one twenty one three, let's call it three point two five longburn. What do you go on this one?
Yeah? So look, I'm not a model guy. That's what that's what both Steven dos. He does. He's got the models to maybe they'll see it differently. This is just a smash spot. The way that I handicap on Denver, it's it's there's no other way for me to do this. I'm gonna be on Denver. I'm gonna wait for the three. You want Dallas coming off when they just blow someone, Now that is the that's the chef kiss point to be on Dallas.
Blew out the Jets and then lost to Carolina.
There you go, there you go, there you go, and this and then Denver's uh, you know, at least at least in the theory, we think they're a good team where they certainly have good parts to their team. They have there's got one part that's and and offensive line like they and you know, there's just that there's really only one part of their team that's kind of like dragging the whole thing down to being like you know,
but they're still foreign to so you know whatever. Maybe he's changed the Boefis, he's changed the boephus Nicks, and then we can start getting some things going. Uh no, I'm gonna make this real quick and then let you take it. Historically, the Cowboys do not beat Denver, and I know that's a some people say that's lazy handicapping, Like I can't remember how many.
A couple of weeks ago you said this seems never whatever, h I.
Think so, dude, I mean, like I remember people pooh pooh on this type of handicapping all the time. If a trend goes back, you know, the last time you know who the quarterback was, the last time Dallas beat Denver Troy motherfucking Akman. Yes, so like hello, I mean, yeah, you you take it away with the model with the numbers, say I do it this way, and I've got what is this forty thirty years on my side, So I hope you're with me for I want the backup of
the numbers too. Don't get me wrong, I would love that backup too. But yeah, I'm on I'm on Denver for sure.
All right.
So the power wrecking his no call bucket grad is on Dallas. There's a lot of money coming in on Dallas. Obviously. The line coming down two no CaAl d two is on Denver. I've got Denver winning this game twenty six to twenty five, the old Runners fifty and a half, so it's a half a point, so no call there. Now, this should be a great matchup for bow Knicks now
relative to bow Knicks, so don't go don't go crazy. However, the Cowboys defense is trending up since they benched Digs, but there's still twenty eighth in DSR now for Dak it's a bad matchup. Denver is number one. He loses the point and a half to BBG. Denver is the number one DSR defense in all the NFL. So they've been excellent all season long. Now, the thing that was kind of curious to me on the money game part of it.
What was the what was the agreement or agreement or disagreement.
So I said that the BBG has Denver winning twenty six to twenty five, which is the over runners fifty and a half. So that's a no call there, so it would be Cals covering. The thing about the matchup was this for bow Knicks again, this is for Bonex. It should be a great matchup KLAS twenty eighth and DSR against the past.
Oh, he's gonna have a good game finally for him.
But DAK minus one and a half. Denver is the number one DSR defense the running game, though, was what I was getting to. This is curious to me. So the BBG only gave Denver half a point to the running game and Dallas is the dead ass last DSR defense against the run in the entire league. That's very interesting with that. What that tells me is what Denver does best. Dallas is at least competent at to hold that to a half a point, because you shouldn't see that.
Now on Dallas running, they lose half a point with Denver's eighth and DSR against the Denver's awesome period on defense. Now, what I rote down about this game is the Denvers beat the Titans by one score. They beat the Bengals when Joe first went down. They beat the Jets, the fucking Jets one of the games they covered by two points. They beat the Giants that took a comeback that had literally never happened in the history of the fucking NFL.
They dominated the Giants in the fourth quarter, in the fourth quarter.
Now, they do have a very quality win at Philadelphia. That's a fucking quality win. Cannot take anything away from that. Yeah, But overall, they beat teams that struggled to score the ball. They lost the Colts who put up twenty nine and the Chargers, who were at the time were still a decent offense before all the injuries early in the season. Yeah, and the Cows, for all their shortcomings, have played the
sixteenth hardest schedule so far. Denvers played the third easiest, and in spite of this, Dallas has the eighth overall. Dallas is eighth overroll sorry w A. Denver's fourteenth their fourteenth, the third easiest schedule, and Denver has the tenth hardest range schedule left, which means they've skated by by the skin of their teeth. The easiest part of their schedule tells me slide is on the horizon. I don't know if it starts here, but my numbers say it does,
the board say it does. It is definitely cals are passed for me here. It's I'm totally disagreeing with you on this one.
Yeah, and I will just I will just slide over my twenty five year Trump card and say and say, go ahead and go against That's nothing.
The fucking laugh at lad It does scare me.
But again I hear you though, I mean, yeah, like dude, Denver is not.
This is another stringbirds strength of wadness versus weakness game. Cols are awesome on offense. Denver's awesome on the even the cows suck balls and defense can't score. What wins what pushes? I don't know.
Here's the deal. I I was high on Denver, had them picking. I picked them to win this this division. They're five and two, they're five and two, so on at the final score, they're doing just fine. But they're two and five against the spread. This is this has been a very Yeah, this is an underwhelming.
Third schedule and there at s, but I have.
Faith in the in the coach because I think he's a Hall of Fame coach. I have faith in the roster because I can, because I can look at it, can fucking look at the roster. Yeah, so, like you know, if bo knicks, if both Cephist knicks, I'm gonna start calling both Stephus Knicks so they can if he can, Like, there has to be some upside here.
There's got if you if you beat if you beat me on this game, if you beat me on this game, you're.
Allowed to the next week, or at least at least for one week, at least for one I mean be beating a team that you've beating, a team that you've won for twenty five years in their shitty defense. I don't know that that is.
He was in kindergarten the fucking last time the Cowboys won this game.
So man, kindergarten, missus, missus Crabtree, what what a great year that was? I don't know. You're the math, You're the math guy, and I've had beers. I don't know too many beers.
If you beat me on this, I'll let you go on both seeds next for the rest of the season. I beat you on this.
He's gotta stay. He's gotta stay the singular boo.
Yes, all right, let's move on to those all those Indiana Joneson's.
Good god, MVP Indiana Jones.
I can't wait to see what my numbers were on this. I know I'm so wrong and so stupid and indy. Oh I'm sorry. I actually be Vegas had Indie minus four, vegashead of minus three and a half. I'm playing to the fucking win by the half point. Baby, We're sitting at fourteen and a half goddamn points in this dumpster fire of a supposed visional matchup long Horn. I'm gonna give you this short for me. I got nothing, What do you got?
Yeah? This is this is equipment for me. I mean, of course you're supposed to be on the fourteen fourteen and a half division game. Blah blah blah blah blah. I don't give a fuck. I'm not betting on Tennessee uh until I see something from them unbettable. It might take all sixty minutes for Indianapolis to get this cover. It may it may not, it might take fifteen Yeah, it may don't take They're gonna get the cover. You just can't bet on. You can't bet on tennessee this into your past for me.
Heyy one, so one and other in the NFL.
There you go.
We want to college football. So we're three and one on the weak, baby, let's fucking roll on that, all right. I'm passing this game completely. So yep, we won to a better game. It's those Pittsburgh singers were sus those green baby pegas. It's the a Ron fucking revenge game. Baby, all right, let's move on to Ort's see what we were at. I had green Bay plus one. Vegas had a minus one and a half. They beat me on this one. God damn okay, I was sure when that one.
So we're sitting at green Bay minus three, pretty much across the board, so Longhorn, Yeah, no juice either, Actually a little bit juice, A little bit of juice coming to plus three this one. The money's kind of flown up. We might get to two and a half. What do you get on the plus three though? Let's where're at right now?
Well, this one and I already got to pull up, so you don't got to worry about This is gonna be the big dig pig of the week.
Pop off a piece of my dick, floppy Donky Dick, sirefu we mo dial last day.
I'm gonna putsman.
Dick in.
MM. So get your pen raady, homeboy, because we're going big on this one. And I've got and I've got the I got the stats and the and the trends to back it up. Two units, two units on the plus three, two units on the plus one forty five. We're going big on this one. Pittsburgh's winning this game. This is a Thomas spot coming off a loss. Tom not only coming off a loss for Pittsburgh, coming off
an embarrassing just got embarrassed on, wasn't it. You know it was a Thursday game, so national TV embarrassing, embarrassing defensive performance for Pittsburgh the perfect huh Yeah, well since they scored like thirty something points on his defense. Yeah, except for when they get blown out and then they don't because coming off a blowout loss, when they get
to blow of points, they don't suck. Matter of fact, let's go to that trend after a loss of giving up thirty more thirty or more points twenty one and eight ats like this is just a sweet spot for Mike Tomman last six games in Pittsburgh. Hold on. Oh last six games for green Bay against Pittsburgh, not in in Pittsburgh against Prince Pittsburgh, oh and six. This is much like the the super Bowl, kid, Yeah, but that doesn't This is regular This is a regular season trend,
not super Bowl. Not super Bowl because because the last time in the regular season that Green Bay beat Pittsburgh, you know who the quarterback for Pittsburgh was, It's even worse in the ape Men and Denver one. It goes back even further, even further. Yeah, the old man, it's almost dead. That's on the national No Bradshaw the last time Green Bay. Actually this isn't this is in Pittsburgh. This is the inn Pittsburgh trend. Okay, yeah, so but this game is in Pittsburgh. So I mean that there
there you go. So everything points to, you know, the Aaron Rodgers playing Green Bay. I don't that's not a big thing for me. I mean like an act. And the trends don't really back it up. Well, because the trends don't back it up like former quarterbacks playing quarterbacks playing their former team. The trends don't really It's it's like a fifty to fifty it's not a lot to it. It just it just Trust me. If it was a big thing, I would have brought it up, believe me.
So this is just a Tomlin coming off of embarrassing loss, extended rest. So they got ten days rest at home. I guess a team that has not beat them and in this building since Terry mother fucking Bradshaw was the quarterback. And green Bay's fair by three. Get the fuck out of here, Pittsburgh winning this game. Give me the points, give me the money line, give it all to me, all right.
Power rank aghanis Pittsburgh, bucker great Pittsburgh. Oh yeah, two Pittsburgh.
Here we go, Here we go.
Five and a half is total. I've got it going under that. I've got green Bay winning twenty seven to sixteen quite handily. Okay, Now I've got a Ron losing two points of the BBG. Green Bay is twelfth in DSR against the past, and I've got Jordan love Gainey a point and a half Pittsburgh's nineteenth DSR. I was surprised they were even that good home running game. I've got Pittsburgh losing the point there also, green Bay sixteenth and DSR away running game it's flat seventeenth and DSR
for Pittsburgh, so they're basically the same defense against the run. Now, this is a terrible matchup for Pittsburgh record to the BPG, but this is the best spot, like you said, for the Tom ten five and four in his career as a home dog for three or less. However, since twenty twenty two, he's four and three, agents still winning and still plus one point five eighths, fading very quickly in three and four straight up. But now he has a
best quarterback once again. And honestly, it's been the defense sucked ass so far this year, even though Longhorn spent all off seats saying they literally might be the eighty five Bears. It's on video, look it up. They definitely have not been. That.
It was an impost and going.
Against Green Bay offense that is third overall an offensive success rate is not going to help them either. But your base played the eighteenth hardest schedule versus defense this year, so far from elite.
I'm sorry. You can't just throw a dagger into my back and not let me respond like you have to give me some give me at least ten seconds of base to respond. To that fucking stabbing in the back. You just no, it's uh, look, I there's some weird things going on with the with the Baltimore and Pittsburgh defense. What do you mean tell you? They both look amazing on fucking paper and neither one has played up to it. That's all I want to say, Like, yeah, it's it's it's been bad.
Overall. You know, I lean with my board and the spot with Pittsburgh and Longhorn here, but I don't know, I don't know, I've this is another one of those kind of sauce advantagement. I'm not sure.
You don't feel good, you don't. I can hear you, and I can't you you. The numbers are telling you, and you don't like it. And the reason you don't like it is because you know it's a Tomlin spot. You know this ain't where you want to be, Betty.
But the board also grades out to Pittsburgh too. The money is coming into pennsyl Like, if the money settles on Pittsburgh, I'll probably be on Pittsburgh and I'll probably with you. It's just I don't like the matchup at all.
What do you mean if the money settles in on Pittsburgh. They opened at three and a half and it's down to three, going to two and a half.
Yeah, yeah, that if it settles there, I was granted on Saturday mornings.
Okay, all right, fair enough.
Gets fucking walkie and it's it's not unreliable metric. But the day before the game, that's when the last one of the sharp money comes in. But the sharp money's been coming in all week on Pittsburgh. There's nothing doubt about it. I definitely lean with you. I don't lean against you. I don't like the matchup at all.
Green Bay there. I mean I know that there was hell I just had it pulled up. I know that their record is the other record pulled up. I'll get back to it. Jesus. They gotta be four and two or five and two, right, they just know they had a tie, so I know they got a tie with Dallas. So there's that. Well regardless, what I was gonna say is because they're not impressive. They're four one and one,
Jesus Christ. So yeah, it's even better THANOUGH thought. They're four one on one, but two and four against the spread. They have just not been impressive. They they barely beat Arizona. They barely. They tied with Dallas they I don't have the list pulled up, but like they've had some long stretch now of unimpressive performances and now they go to a place that they haven't won since the seventies.
I mean, like, just I don't agree with you, but the BBG surely does. Yeah, the matchups not good across the border for Pittsburgh versus.
This is gonna be great TV. Though, to to the Aaron Rodgers saying, Aaron Rodgers playing his the team he was with forever. Do you remember that green when Minnesota and Brett Favre played Green Bay when Aaron Rodgers was there? Fucking great, great game? I think. Didn't Brett Farr win that game?
Yeah?
I think you did? So, like, this is gonna be great TV. This is gonna be must watch TV on a on a Sunday. I think this is a Sunday night game, so can't wait to watch it?
All right, Well, let's move on some Monday night.
Up.
It's Monday night football and this one has lost all of its luster long or has it?
Or has it?
Kansas City? I don't even want to bring the breezes line because it doesn't matter. There's no quarterback for Washington, so let's just move on to what it is. It's now twelve and a half across the board, disrespect and half points disrespect laying to those Washington Redskins.
Now, like if you've been listening to this podcast for for over the years, like this is an easy call for me, and I don't care that it's Marcus Mariota because you're getting the receivers back. It looks like, uh, Deebo and mclorin are gonna play, and Mariota has proven that he's a reliable, dependable backup quarterback in the NFL. And twelve and a half fucking points against a kansasity team.
The historically now ever covers these spreads like like yeah, except for playing against an inept team and the Raiders who lost all their defensive players. Yeah, just fine, if you want, if if, if Casey is just gonna blow everybody every week, hats off, give me, give me all those points. Uh, Washington's coming off a loss, So I always always like taking teams that are coming off a loss. I always look to not necessarily be on a team
coming off a win that's not a deciding factor. But it just makes me feel better when i'm especially when I'm getting trouble and have points. So yeah, I'm this is a no brainer. Give me, give me, gimme, gimme all those points for Washington.
All right, I'll let Longhorn take away with that.
Oh oh last point in this It is a sandwich spot. You got, you got Casey coming off there. You know, say what you want about the Say what you want about the Raiders. It is one of their rivals. It is one of the one of the teams that occasionally does pop up them and beat them. So the division game, regardless, and next week they got Buffalo on deck. So this is this is like an in between cross conference game, you know, like like a big number. You know that.
This just feels like a spot where they win by four or six or seven points, not not thirteen. So I'll be on I'll be on those dirty, dirty redskins.
I'm gonna be on it. Right. Let's see. That's it, Okay, boys and girls, that was all the wins coming here.
It's not Bose. He was trying to get us fucking copyright the fuck right out of this segment, is what he's doing.
Sorry. All right, girls, the time you've been all the way way before its time of the Street, I said, Pikes of the week.
Oh wait, we're doing free picks. Oh, I forgot about that. I always forget about this part of the show. Let's see, do I want to go against the shitty Titans Free Square or the shitty Jets Free Square? You know what? I made such a big deal about it on this particular episode. Give me, give me those Cincinnati Bengals minus six and a half, the new free Square going against those j E t S. Place your motherfucking bets against
every thing that they do. Fade Aaron Glynn and I'm on since I'm graduate six, Okay, I like that.
All Right, we're gonna go with college free pick of the week. This week. We're gonna go with Iowa State minus two and a half. If I can remember who they're playing, it will be doing very well. But I don't remember who they're playing. Look, it doesn't matter. Let's fucking take Iowa State and a half. They're gonna win this game. They're gonna win this game out right. They were just came by margin. So I will State minus two and a half your college free pick of the Week.
Longhorn tell about the Babilis Patreon where they can find all those winners for three and one so far this week. That kid so telling about one more. All they're playing b Why you goddamn Mormons. You ain't got a blood way there's.
B yu was undefeated.
Yeah, let's bring that ship, bring that to age you.
Oh my god, James, and you.
Fucking proved to me. Brock fucking Asmeier, whatever the fuck your name is. Quarterbacks, This is a that's a TOAs and win a fucking game.
Yeah, this is a good game. I can't you should have had a better build up to this. This is a This is a good one. So minus two and a half at home, I always stayed versus BYU. That's a two thirty Central time kickoff. That one's gonna definitely be on one of the main screens no matter where you're at. So uh yeah, I like, look, sometimes you pick Sacred Heart, sometimes you pick uh Sisters of the Sisters of the of the Poor. I don't know where you're going, but this is a big game and I like this.
But they have not pop lines yet. Yeah, if they do, if they're in my range, once they fucking.
Yeah, And to find those go to the patreon dot com, Patreon dot com, slash bet Underscore FGH and look, we got a player props guy c K. He's doing great. Like if you if you like player props, if you do the pick, you know the pick things the DK the day, the daily Fantasy, go with c K. He's a good he's a good guy to go with. But both Stevens is the star of the show. He's hidding whatever percent sixty percent total, Like, it's just go with him.
There's a lot of packages on our on our patron page, go post ephas he's hot as fuck right now and do that so that so that you can bust up the rest of the here. I have an NFL package. I'm looking to get over fatheron in this week. I like my card, so we'll see how that goes. But people, stop throwing away your hard earn money on a guessing game. Let the pros do that heavy litzing. So sign up, tell a friend and joining another funnel, watching football, drinking beer, and never pay a book again.
Come out, damn, you can never pay a book again. Take itself