I want me some Glorio.
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What all right? All ride bo ciphas Here we go. NFL Week numbers seven and oh baby, do we have some action this week? Lots of underdog winners, sounders, big, big picks, danger zones. We got them all this week. And as we are watching Joe Fleackel live on our TVs win maybe as an outright underdog, it makes me feel like this week that I have cooked up with
all these underdog winners are gonna pay off. Big could be there, or it could be the six pack of booze I've already drank before we even started this fucking podcast. Either way, we all win boceivahs hit with that. But for the funny, it's a question fun.
I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun.
We're all gonna have so much fucking fun.
When the classic surgery to.
Remove our goddamn s files you'll be whistling symphony due to out of your assholes. Are you out here for the money?
And money is the root of all evil? Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to hear baby, you have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question that has What a stupid question? You ask a lot of stupid questions. My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money?
I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it. I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator.
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everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the shoe. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting wo choice of the week.
I still drunk.
I feel right, Donna.
Thank you very much, sir, search Tonight, I'm drinking any hard way. I p a from Chicago Brewing Company and Lost Vegas, Nevada located Longhorn inside of the Four Queens, one of our favorite spots for drunken food.
Great smelling. What a great smelling casino is? You know you can never forget the smell of the Four Queens. Let me tell you well.
I'm drinking tonight speaking of smells, because I recently learned the story of how the Fourth Queens got its name. So apparently, in nineteen seventy two, there were a group of four ladies that would come into the sportsbook every Sunday and bet on the Dolphins to win.
And at first We're like, hey, sweat Italian guy, can we.
Like bet on the Dolphins to win? And the bookie was like, of course you can't, sweetheart. You just can bet on anythings you want. And after about a month of these ladies coming in here and bet and winning, the bookies got curious and nests, Hey, why you guys always be betting on the dolphins, And the ladies were like, because Monica's favorite animal is a dolphin, so like it's a sure thing. And to that, the bookie said, the
only fucking sure thing is is is your assistance? Fucking an stick kid, Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit. But the ladies kept winning as the Dolphins went seventeen and oh that season, and eventually they got buried in four holes in the desert just for being that stupidly lucky. But the wise guys did have enough respect for them to rename the casino the Four Queens in their honor.
So all good, you know, all good, that ends good, long one.
Yeah. All I heard from about the moral of that story that I heard was like I heard women and heard holes, and I connected those two dots and I kind of just kind of checked out from the rest of it. I don't know.
Oh shit, Well, boys and girls, whether your lady, whether you're man, we are gonna get into the podcast now. We're gonna go over every game in the NFL in the air tonight. Give you all those men's, all those free picks, that you paid as always, but right now we have to get paid to do that. Oh, let's talk about Texas Telehealth dot com. Whether your lady, whether you're a man, it doesn't matter. Going to the doctor
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Oh my god, okay, it's happening.
God, what do you think is happening right now? Excuse me?
What is happening here? What is happening?
What the fuck just happened?
Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for all those men's coming to the ads.
And night member.
Alright, boys and girls, it is that time to go over every game and.
Then shut your mouth. Phil Callings, don't be don't be coming here with all your copywriting ship.
That's right, we're gonna start.
Oh, speaking of witch, let's let's uh, let's get a little bit of that right here, Bosts.
Right, communicate some towns for me, please, I really blunt?
You sound like, yeah, yeah, gotta get the real things sometimes.
That's good ship.
All right.
Those Jacksonville, those London Jacks as we all know that they are, that this is their true home stadium over there in London.
They're facing those.
The stadium Yanks, the stadium that the Jaguars built, as they say, over there somewhere, Yeah, that's yeah. Yeah.
So they they're facing these Yanks, these Yanks from Los Angeles. And let's see, they're currently three point dogs at home, three point basically home Kohorn.
Now, season on this one.
Was I had Jacksonville three point dogs. Vegas had them three and a half. So we're basically right in line here. We're still where these teams are who we thought?
So what are you going on this one?
Well, I don't know where's my board. I don't think either one of us had Jaguars winning ten games. They're they're kind of, they're kind I don't know yet that they are well we thought they were leaving that most people. But I will say this a lot. I like a lot of dogs this week, A lot of a lot of dogs to keep the games close, a lot of dogs to sneak out some wins. Having a hard time
with this one. There's a really smart guy that I know once told me that you can only pick the Jaguars if they're gonna be able to be successful running the football. And of course that guy was you and the Rams are they're middle of the pack, at least the metrics that I look at, they're they're run the middle of the pack at stopping the run. So what that tells me is Jacksonville is probably a live dog here. I would probably lean to the three points. Certainly at
the three I know that this. I think this line open at two and a half. Don't don't like that, although two and a half lands, you know that that's a key number, more of a key number than than has been in the past. But at three, I can only lean to the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I'm not sure about the pook. Do you know if Puka is for sure in or out as Yeah, so there there's still
just need more information. Yeah, I think so too. So this is just a lean to the Jaguars at three, and I think they're gonna they will have some success. But big picture, I'm gonna stick with what with what I've been saying the whole time is that I don't think we've seen the best of Jacksonville. Even in some of the losses, I've been somewhat impressed by the overall team. There's obviously friction going on between the quarterback and the head coach, which I love. I think this head coach,
I really like him. He's you know, we saw some friction between We saw a friction between Jesus Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. He kind of had to like break him and like just fuck you, I'm gonna go out
there and fail. We're seeing some of the same things with Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence to be like, just dude, There's been a video of him not calling a time out, like when it's clearly like the quarterbacks, letting them, let the clock drain down and get the leg game, and he's just stand He's literally standing there with his arms folded next to the ref where he could clearly call time out, and he's just like, you're really gonna I
almost you're gonna fuck us off. Fuck it off. So it's like there's some growing pains going here, which I really like from a from a young rookie head coach to be like, dude, come on, like you're you're one hundred million dollars quarterback, You're the franchise quarterback. Get with it. So but that's big picture, a small picture in this one. I like Jack's plus three, but it's not one of my any of the sounders or anything like that. What do you you got agreement over there with the numbers
was what are the big brain computers? Say bo saves?
All right, So full transparency.
I'm just gonna let everybody know U I did not get to get all my research done going to this podcast.
So it's gonna be your best week ever in the NFL.
Of course. I'm in the middle of a transition.
I'm getting my tests cut off and my vagina sewed up into a penis. I'm gonna be the man that God always intended me to be. I feel like that's how I feel. I just want to Everybody needs to support me on this, Okay, everybody needs to support me.
And if you don't support me, you are a Nazi. So just don't make fun of me. Don't make fun of me.
As long as you keep winning. I don't really give a fuck what you do with your private so I mean that's all. Just keep winning, dude, chop whatever you want off because I don't really care.
All right, So the power of grads grade has the rams here now the BBG.
I did it through all those It's a no call at three.
I've got the Rams running twenty four to twenty two, so that's within the margin being and no co it is over though the forty four and a half. Look this should be you know, it's a raider game for Goldielocks. But Matthew Savage should have success in this game. He's plus one point through the BBG. Both running games are flat. You talked about the Rams running defenses. Looked at those stats as you're pulling them. The Rams are seventh in the NFL at rushing success rate on defense.
So now I didn't break it down again.
I have not had time to break down as far as that one matchup that I talked about before with ETN So just because of the seventh ranked you know, rushing success rate, doesn't that one matchup I broke down when I said he was not gonna have success. That was against a twenty ninth success rate rush defense in Kansas City. But I said, they defend the one run that he does that he needs very well and he didn't do shit in that game. So I didn't get
down to that level. But if you just look at the rush scess rate seventh NFL, the Jaguars, the Longhorn, surprisingly enough, sprizingly enough, second best rushing success rate in the entire NFL. So the Rams are going to struggle to run the ball here. And if Pooka can't go, If pook can't go, you're absolutely right Rams or the Jaguars are alive.
Dog.
However, I do have one trend. I got to pull some trends this week. So I've got a bunch of guys on the BY going into the next week and by and guys coming off the BI, and I will give those trends as we go. The Rams are on a bye going into next week, so I pulled information from twenty eighteen. If you're in neutral sizs we're playing you know, the London game. Since about then we got fourteen games in the sample size, decent sample size for you know, seven.
Years, basically two games a year.
If you're going into the buy on a neutral site and you are the favorite twelve and two straight up, eleven and three ats with the average line of minus four with a plus three point five ats. So that's as you're right there, the Rams gonna win this game about seven points historically.
Now I do have grade over.
The under though, is three and eleven, so it's heavily graded to the under and minus seven on forty four point six is this total is forty four point five, so it tells about overs.
Kind of bullshit.
On that one, But this trend is heavy, heavy, heavy on the Rams.
To cover this game.
Like I said, I have one in twenty four to twenty two, it's three points, take it or leave with what you want, but that it tells me it's probably gonna.
Be a RAMS victory, probably be a RAMS cover.
I don't I'm probably not gonna have anything on this game, but either way, I'm not I'm not going against a seventy eight.
Point six percent trend. I'm not doing that. I'm not betting the Jaguars at all. I can promise you that.
Yeah, and I'm not eager to bet Jacksonville either. But i will say this on pick EM's and against the spread contests and all that that you're in, it's kind of depending on what number you get. Some needs contest lock in early, some of them locking late. If I've got a contest lock in against the spread that you have to pick every single game, and I'm getting a two and a half with the Rams probably taking that probably taking that.
Like I said, again, the Acs eleven and three plus three point five on an average line of minus four, we're sending it three. So they've been this game by seven and a half points at a seventy eight point six percent clip.
For our trend line and our history.
So again, you don't have to bet with every trend, but you don't bet against those kinds of trends, especially they're this specific neutral site and you're the favorite right before bye, you're on vacation, you're about to go on vacation, you're living life high like the you just don't go against that.
You don't know the Rams are on the buy next week, Yes, sir? Yeahs not playing then? I mean like he hasn't he hasn't practiced all week. And if they're on a buye then.
Why by And they're already they're already projected to win, so him not to play it maybe that's what cous them not to win by margin. However, like I said, if Jacksonville struggles run the ball, which they are project they're projected to run the extra ball flat, so they're projected to get their normal amount of points through the BBG through the running game.
But so are the Rams.
But Stafford is projected to have a very very good game in this game.
And that should be the difference. What would get the Rams the win and the cover here?
All right? I don't want to spend too much time on on a on a game that doesn't sound like he's the one of us love a lot. So Oh my god, Flacco just ran like ten yard. But take the over Flacco rush yards for ten in one play. You just cast that fucking team. How does a forty nine year old run ten yards all getting tackled the NF not not just tackled, decapitated in the NFL. I don't know. I just saw it, though it happened under.
I guarantee you on fucking like a draft game. Was half a yard?
Oh my god, Tolman just looked like he had the What the fuck just happened? What is wrong with my goddamn defense? Yes, he he might kill somebody to this game, because they're working on giving up thirty plus points to the Bengals with a really good defense. In theory to Joe motherfucking Flacco after he just told everybody, what fuck you trade in Division A starter week one to your
goddamn division rival Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals. They are they're the stepsisters of this division, and they're in kohoots. They're in coddamn kohoots against those fucking Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Rates. I'm telling you, like they like they just build a team up. Hey, how can one of us? How does one of us beat the bullies? You want, you want flac oh, We'll give you flac oh. Just just I don't care. I'm gonna shit, go go go beat them.
No, this is a true story. We were in the draft in Cleveland. We asked there was Cleveland brown fans buying us shots the Cincinnati fans standing right behind us, and we said, hey, you hate this guy. He's like, I don't this fun guy hat. He's like, we hate those fucking guys. And they literally all that and the dude behind them all point of the fucking Steelers fans.
Ye hate these guys like they all hate the Steelers.
So Miss Slippy. The part of the story that I like the most is that when you're talking about all the shots that they were by because these motherfuckers on the East Coast, Oh my god, drink. Taking a shot to them is just like, hey, you want to you want some water, you need you need a bottle of water. That to them, you need a bottle of water? Is would you like a shot of tequila? It's it's or that. That's it's what it is to them. God damn it. They drink a lot. They do.
It's like a sport up there.
Let's move on to those New York jay t They're holding those Carolina Panthers.
All right preseason on this one. Let's see, I had Carolina minus two. Uh they said the Jets minus more and a half.
They were currently setting at Carolina minus one and a half.
So I was Carolina minus one one and a half. Uh, So I was a lot closer to the Vegas was on this one. So long one, What are you gonna?
What do I What do I have on the Carolina versus Jets game? Let me say, so, this is gonna be the game that I cannot take my eyes off for. They're all the wrong reasons like this is this is a train wreck, car crash casualties everywhere that I just cannot wait to watch. Uh Carolina. I was higher on Carolina than than almost anybody I know actually coming in the season. This has been two years in a row. I've got them winning, can bear spon board. I think
it was seven games, maybe eight, and they're three and three. Well, but they're three and three. Now here's the deal, though, like I got, I got you pegged Carolina and not that kind of peg, the other kind of pegged, like you are great, They're they're doing the they're doing the Cleveland thing. Good at home, trash on the road, unbettable on the road. But here's the problem. They're betting a team that's on betable anywhere you cannot bet on on the on the Jets. The Jets are the new Titans
from the whole last year and a half before. They just fired their coach. So now the new Titans where you can't bet on them bet on them is the Jets. Can't win with them, can't bet on them. That's that's it. That's the Aaron Glenn, this is what you get when you do de I just I don't know what to tell you. It's it's and this isn't like recency bias. I've been saying this since the summer. He sucks. He
got promoted for for reasons I do not know. Someone can, maybe maybe someone can, really someone smarter than me, can explain to me how he got that job and and what he did, you know on the field as a coach, that that gave him a job. But in this situation, I got to I got a movable object versus you know,
irresistible force. Which one do you go with? And as ugly and disgusting as it is, the Jets somehow when the tug of war of the ship, that they win the shit tug of war for me, I guess just because they're at home, and because at some point are they gonna go O seventeen? I don't know. I mean, if they're gonna get a win, maybe it's here against a team it's that's terrible on the road. I hate this pick. It's not a sounder, it's not a it's not a it's not anything except I have to pick somebody.
So give me the Jets, and and you know it's a win win bo steem because if they lose then I get to stay on my airing. Glynn is the worst hire of all time at minus Callahan for Callahan and Callahan for Tennessee.
All right, So I haven't again full transfers have not done my full board yet. However, early on, this is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Power is on with the Jets.
The Jets are your favorite bet.
It is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Okay, so powering is on the Jets.
I've got the Jets winning through the VBG twenty four to twenty. That's over the forty two home match.
He's gonna be what he is. You know, he sucks. It's actually a decent matchup.
Bradshawing games a half a point to the VPG. However, here's where the rub comes in.
This should be this should be the best running game the Jets have for the entire season. So if you have what's Longhorn, what's the guy's name, the running back for the Jets, brisall, yeah, Brisaw.
On your fantasy team, if you're on daily fantasy, if you do any of that shit, put your money on this guy. He should have a fucking great game here against this Carolina defense, with the scheme of the Jets run versus what Carolina does on defense, he should be really, really, really good. Regal Dalla has been a revelation for the for the Panthers. However, he grades out flat here versus what the defense gives up. So in other words, what that tols you is he should be around his market price.
It doesn't mean well, Cheeper Hubbard, Cuber Hubbard is probably playing this week. So it's gonna be a dual threat running back for Carolina, for whatever that's worth.
They should probably make it a single threat because fucking Rigo has been killing but whatever.
I'm not a coach. I don't know who is better or whatever.
But either way, what they run versus what the Jets do, it should come out about what their normal productivity is. So I've got that, I've got the Jets winning this game by four points, and.
I've got this.
You know what, fuck it, I'm gonna make this the it's gonna be the numbers get picked the wikis. I got a nice trend on this one, and I'm gonna start that over because because we didn't hear it, I got.
The volume down. Why would I have the volume off? I want you to fucking nerd with your nerd, yeah me, my nerd hair. All right, here we go.
Since and I had to go back to two thousand, yeah two just to get some just to get a few games into this, and then the dog get into this trend for a while. So the reason why I went back this far week seven, you literally have a zero percent winning percentage. You're own six.
You're the dog, y'are the.
And the line is three or less two and one straight up two and one ats all time average line two point two. Look, this is just one of those. And I've called this several times.
I mean, we've been long horn, We're doing this for a long time.
There's been several moments, even with teams I hate, like the Jets, I've got the under I called this a couple of years.
Ago in Carolina. I actually called both. They won two games. I called them both.
And it's just one of those burned the boat's moments. So, either this team decides to play for your boy Aaron Glenn this Sunday, or he's fired.
No, he won't be fine. Now that that's where Okay.
Yeah, fired on Sunday, but he's fired at the end of the year if they don't win this game. This is one of those burned the boats moments. Like you said, they're not gonna go oh to seventeen.
Most likely probably not.
This is the game. This is the game.
They have a strategical matchup advantage here. Field should be fun, not great.
But fun.
Well is it? Is it gonna be filled? There's there's murmurs of Tyrod Taylor.
Maybe I.
Actually actually I would I prefer Tyrod Taylor. Jesus Christ, please put him in.
But either way they should be able to run the ball very very well in this game. Control the fucking game, control the fucking clock. This this has got to be the game They're gonna win again. This has to be the game Jets win. Jets covered. This is one of my favorite bets of the week. Again, I haven't maybe and officially because I don't have on my data in yet, but as I've looked at it so far, this is literally my favorite bet of the entire week.
Jets. Yeah. Some of the some of the talking points on Justin Fields this week coming out of locker room has been something along the lines of this or something. Yeah that's that. I mean, that's you know, I'm confirmed, but I think that's along along those lines.
I also heard this baptized laughing. That's what he's been.
Doing, been doing anything but getting first downs?
Oh I God, so bad.
All right, let's move on to those Kansas City Chiefs. Oh as they start their march touch another World Championship Longhorn.
Nope, nope, they're hosting are Lost Vegas ratest. Good lord, the line of.
I can't wait to see what I had on this one. Okay, this is so gross. Like I knew it was so wrong. I had Kansas City minus seven, Vegas had a minus nine and a half. There's get eleven and a half points now favored Stros enough because well, you know, we just powerings throughout the year.
This is an call about the powering.
So the numbers fair to me along one of the BBG just says otherwise, but I've also have more data. Look, this is one of those games where it's a hold your nose game if you're gonna go for the Raiders for store.
Oh yeah, but what do you yeah? I mean like this this is your first day on the job, of course, like this, this is a you have to take Vegas in this spot. This is just like we've we've cashed this ticket several times through the years. Like this is just a must play if you're going to bet, if you're gonna be a football or professional football better. And certainly if you're gonna do a you know, a handicapping podcast, like you can't come out and say, yeah, I think
I think Case lay the point like that. That's the fucking dumbest thing in the world. This is a must play on Vegas. Mahomes does not cover these big lines historically. That's number one. Mahomes as a favorite. We've talked, I've talked about for so many years now that Mahomes as a small favorite under three or a dog is his smash spot. You get over three, and we had one of those last week, like last week against Detroit, small favorite at home. That's just that's just his that's just
his spot, man. And well we can always we can always get drunk and talk about all the fucking is of this and that and this and that, but he always comes out on the on the right side.
That the fact that there was no real motion violation.
Oh my god, we're gonna talk about they get the calls. They're the best team, just like the Cowboys in the nineties, like the Patriots in the odds. This is the way it goes when you're the best team.
But you can't get like a fake motion call, I can I get, I get the.
Whole Are you telling me the call in the first quarter? Yes, the first okay, really come on, But that means that changed the whole fucking game. They changed the whole change which I mean there was, there was fifty eight minutes you have to play with that changed everything.
Okay, Like you're gonna pretend like one fucking call doesn't say you fucking nobody, you fucking know better. When you're on the road facing the fucking champs and you go up seven to nothing versus three to you know that changes the game.
Look, I know you got to pick on them, so well, I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna go hard on you know that I do.
If you're on my side on that, you would say the same fucking thing. Well, wind of call changes the whole fucking dynamic of that game.
I would say, yes, But didn't Detroit have the lead after that?
No they didn't.
They never got the lead. I'll go back and check the boss if you if they never had the lead, then I will I will agree with you. But I think they had the lead in that game, which throws that all out the winter because once you had the lead, you got the lead. How fuck yeah? Since is about to win this game, by the way, with the men and a half left and there and inside the ten, they came back and scored through the lead. Now, since he's about to fucking just say fuck you, we were
taking this one. It's the week of the dogs, baby, it's the wig of the dogs. We're winning some games out right, but not in this one. Not Vegas ain't winning out right, They're not doing that. But yeah, of course I'm on Vegas just to finish out.
So the Lions, they're losing six to three at the first quarter, they were losing thirteen to ten out of the second quarter, twenty ten out of the third quarter, and thirty seventeen finals.
So no, they never, they never.
But they would have been up seven to six as the first quarter, fourteen to thirteen after at halftime, if all the if all the scoring, just say the same, fair enough, just because you had the other fucking side.
No, I've been No, that's a spot that I always a mahomes. This is not just that's that's a spot.
I'm not saying that. You Yes, I'm not saying that.
All I'm saying is that one call changed the dynamic of that fucking game, and it was a bullshit no again the whole thing, the passing Affearce.
I know they're gonna get that. I know they're gonna get those calls.
That call was which was it or was it the actual rules? And and he re knew it and and called it out?
He didn't call it out, New York fucking sit down a fucking review.
It's it's been a whole controversy.
All right, fair enough, fair enough. So I can't wait to see how AI decides how to cut up this conversation between half talking about about cac and Vegas and half talking about Casey, Like figure this one out. Let's tell smart you are AI? Can you figure out this cut up? And this and this chop job? So back on this game, mahomes as a favorite, however, as a favorite of seven and more, there's a lot of trends and a lot of things that I saw throughout the
week that tells me to take Vegas. But I'm gonna pull this one because I just love this one so much. As a favorite of seven and more. My homes is thirty six and two straight up. That's great, right, here's a problem. Those two losses. There's a Vegas so like this is his kind of and we and we've we've seen this and and go favorite seven more. Yeah he yeah, he wins these games. He just doesn't cover. But it's just interesting that the two losses he has are against
this Vegas team. Now the offensive tackle shuffle that's going on with with Kansas City because the rookie that they have who's played pretty pretty pretty well pretty okay, uh, he he got hurt. I don't know if he's coming back this week, but they got they got a decent backup that they signed from San Francisco as a kind of.
Almost killed somebody this week too.
Yeah, they got, they got. I don't I don't really care about that. He's coming off a blown out knee or whatever it was and a felony. So like, I mean, I'm sure he'll work his way in and be fine eventually. I don't expect a whole lot from him week one. We'll see though. But but there's a game wrecker, a true game record like TJ. Watt in his prime, top type game wrecker for the for Vegas, and that's that's
Max Crosby. He can just he can literally just and we've seen him in these matchups almost win the game by himself. So yeah, I'm on Vegas plus the points. I'm I was kind of hoping to get it up to thirteen. It looks like it's getting bought back down and it's going the other way. I don't I don't think I'm gonna get up to the thirteen. I don't know most obviously, if you've got the if you've got the which way this line's going. But it appears that it's it's peaking at twelve twelve and a half, So.
Yeah, money coming back in on Vegas now plus four, so probably we've seen this off the market, So UH.
Agrees with you. So we got it's.
Actually a no call about power racking because I had to upgrade Kansas City pretty significantly over what I was in the last two weeks because their offense appears to be back.
They're scoring thirty points a game.
Again, my homes look like mahomes and Vegas. I mean, dude, Gino just can't fucking figure it out. However, if you go all the way through the VBG, unbelievably, it has Kansas City win this game twenty three twenty two, so one point game and mostly because it's not a great matchup for Mahomes versus Stevens. He grades up flat minus half a point for Gino though, but both running games.
Great out is flat. So if if Vegas.
Can somehow spark the running game, that will give them advantage there. And again I'm only going over the numbers that I have.
It. It hasn't worked with gent so far this year.
I mean, his literally every yard he gains is after contact and long horn.
You you go through all.
The grades of the PFF scores of the fucking offensive line.
You study that shit like a mad man.
They don't run block worth a fuck like he just like if you just watch the games, every time he hits the ball, he gets hit immediately and literally every yard he gains is after contact. And that's just that's not recipes for success for running game. You have to give these guys holes.
You're gonna give him a fucking chance to get started.
And he's telling me do he does good things because that's what he is, but they just don't fucking do it. And this Kansas City defense is bad again as it's been against the run. This Vegas offense has been shitty running the fucking football. Now, it's where I've since I started the BBG. This is where I've seen these numbers. There's a possibility of flip here where you know, just because of the matchup.
Me is I haven't been able to dig in just because of the matchup.
Maybe Vegas can some lanes here against a very poorest defense against the run. It's Kansase has been all year, and I think that's the avenue that they're gonna have if they're gonna.
Keep this game close.
That's it, other than the fact that Kansase, like you said, just likes to play with their food.
Now, what you do have working against.
You on your Vegas pick here is if you're going to Dubai and you are a road dog to twenty eighteen, twenty five, twenty seven and one, so forty eight point one percent against the spread average line six point one. That's this is way higher than that though, and it's only minus point seven, So it's a coin flip trend.
It's not a terrible thing.
So it's nothing to keep you off a plane Vegas at all. They probably will make my card at some point.
I just got to get to the rest of it.
But it's Vegas for pass for me here, I'm with you one hundred percent.
There's a zero chance I'm laying eleven and a half points.
I don't care how good and hopefully long when we get back to that. You know, we had a sweet spot there for about that's a year and a half where you you know, you kind of came up with the Mahomes thing and we rode it and it was like, so money because they got so overvalued in the marketplace, right, so they were laying seven eight nine point like old Patriot shit. The difference was Tommy covered those fucking numbers and Patrick never fucking did. And that was like it was a golden era of just.
It's it go the way it's been since it was since they traded or you know, they traded Tyreek Hill and like after that and they stopped being like the explosive offense. Since then, it's been like they win but don't cover. Yeah.
So, but the market has definitely adjusted on that. So, like we didn't get those fat ass numbers for about the last year or so, we got.
More even marketplace numbers. It was harder to just pick against them because sometimes they would.
Cover a five or four, when in previous years they'd be laying seven or eight. So now I think we're getting back to those more inflated numbers, which is good for.
Us because we can take advantage.
On the other side, that's not what they do, just like you said, it's not what they do. So unless fucking Geno goes out there and those three picks, which obviously he's shown he's fucking capable of.
Nah, Gino doesn't do that. That's he would uh uh, he never. He's grown out of that, grown out of that.
After fourteen years in the league, he's finning fourteen years and five weeks of doing anything so far this year, he's grown out of it.
All right, let's move.
On to those Cleveland Browns versus Hamma Dolphins.
I can't wait to see what this preseason line was.
Okay, I had, Oh my god, this is embarrassing.
I had.
I had Miami minus seven and a half. Jesus Vegas out of minus one and a half. Cleveland is now the new favorites of two and a half. How could we be this wrong?
Longhorn?
Me and I mean, of course I was ten points wrong. So I have been early on, I was wrong the Dolphins, obviously, but I thought I was wrong on the Browns too until they started playing football and I was like, no, I was wronging those guys. But clearly my evaluation of the brown or the Dolphins is what led me to this. But even Vegas was wrong by five points here the Longhorn.
So are we are we.
Really in the position where Cleveland starting a quarterback? What is this third start, third start or second start is laying two and a half points to the Dolphins.
Yeah, so this one and get the get the get the b bet the BDP ready because and it's not your normal big day pick that you would think, but this is gonna be the big Dick pick of the week.
I'm gonna pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donkey dick.
Sire, fuck up, we've my deck. Last thing.
I'm gonna put some.
My dick in oh Cleveland is gonna put it in Miami, so goddamn hard. And as you're riding down the units by Stevens, I'm gonna put you. I'm You're gonna do a little homework here because I'm doing one unit on the minus two and a half for Cleveland. I'm doing a half unit each on alternate lines because this one's gonna be a blowout. Cleveland's gonna blow the goddamn doors off this Miami team, and that's what makes the big day pick. So I want a half unit on the on the minus six and a half. I want a
half unit on the minus nine and a half. Whatever those numbers come out to, and I can look them up to. I don't have as much access to to the ultimate lines as you do. Uh yes, sir, cleve one at home. I talked about it with with what Carolina's doing. Cleveland at home is just a different animal. They play well at home. They stink on the fucking road. Miami outdoors now, Miami outdoors in Cleveland. We've been to Cleveland. We know, we know what it's like in Cleveland. It ain't.
It ain't the greatest weather even in like typically not bad type of weather situations. What's the weather like this weekend in Cleveland? Ninety fucking percent chance of rain. This is a fucking Cleveland won the ball pass rush the fuck out of to what he's gonna be just seeing start like this is a blowout. I'm calling for a blowout of a team that is one in five Like that. I know it's not your typical big dick pick of
me picking a big underdog. This is me picking a one in five team to blow the doors off another team, albeit another one in five team. Another team is not very good. A team is imploding, having having player only meetings. That that the quarterbacks calling out about people being late to that he that reportedly he's been late to himself
in years past. Like this is just chaos there. There's talks about Wattle being traded, the coach being fired, Like Miami is the biggest ship show in the world right now, and you're telling me they're gonna go to Cleveland in a rainstorm on grass that's this fucking tall and and full of water and win a game. Get the motherfuck out of here, give me Cleveland, give me them to win by ten points or more. And let's catch these tickets.
I gotta plus one six and a half plus two thirty four on the nine and a half.
Let's go, baby, Let's go half you know each on those.
One ns half straight up?
Now now before I go, before I go piss, well, you do your handicap. Do I have agreement from the big brain numbers or.
Not you got nothing for me?
Are you gonna you're gonna talk long enough for me to go to the party? Or do we wait for the next one.
I will start the next one.
You can go, okay, go ahead, all right, good, all right.
We're gonna move on to those Tennessee Titans host those New England Patriots.
All right.
Preseason line on this one, boys and girls.
You can go to party. No, go ahead, I'm good.
Uh, preseason line on this one. I had, I actually had ten.
This is the only game I had Tennessee favorite in. I had had Tennessee minus one. Vegas had Tennessee minus one and a half, or sorry, a New England minus one half. It's New England minus seven minus seven. This team, I mean, I said this team is gonna be bad.
This team was even worse than I ever fucking imagine this, much worse. Seven. You're laying seven points on the road. WHOA, I don't know. I don't know about this well.
I mean, first of all, you're they got rid of the worst coach in NFL history. And I don't say that like flippingly, like Callahan may have.
Two years ago, like I don't fucking like this higher at all.
Yeah, first offensive line, I was like, yeah, and he was a great offensive line coach, a shitty head coach.
And he still is a great old line coach. And that's and like, that's scary too, because the the dad left. Obviously, the son got fired. So you know, usually when when the head coach gets fired, your staff stays put and they just elevate, you know, somebody to head coach. Everybody else stays the same. Well, the dad was the old line coach. The sun got fired, So obviously Dad's like, yeah, I guess I'm kind of out of here too, and
he kind of did the I'll exit stage left. You don't have to plenty of money he could do that, yes, for sure. Now, but back to the point, how do you not get a huge boost just just automatically from when you don't have the worst head coach in the NFL anymore? And it wasn't like forget I know what you be. No, I can't like that that that stuff's gone now because I don't have the free square No, and and I and I gave the caveat until Callahan's fire.
Well it's a good thing. These are on fucking video and we can and we can see them and play them back. So you do have the dead coach bounce obviously in this spot. And New England and so I'm gonna be on Tennessee and now I prefer seven and a half. I don't know if it's gonna take I don't know if it's gonna take back up. It is at seven and a half on some of the some of the early contest lines. You it popped at seven and a half earlier in the week. I don't know
if it's gonna go back there. New England is coming off three. This is their third straight road game. They won and covered the first two one and they won and covered the first two. This is terrible. This is this, This is just to get out of town, get the win. I'm back on Tennessee. It's safe to be back on Tennessee again, I think, uh so, so yeah, give me Tennessee in the seven and a half and and I'll go. I'll be right back in thirty seconds. But I know, I fucking know I've got agreement here.
Oh you're a giant liar. You told us all you would stand said first of all, now that he's gone. He never said he never said that. He never said that, he never said it. So I'm just gonna put it out there while he's gone. Uh.
Now, the money is still coming in on the Patriots plus five percent, so we'll see where the market goes. We could probably wait for the seven and a half for being honest, but as far as the powering.
Is go, it's a no goal here on the power rings.
However, the DPG has this game great out in New England winning twenty eight to eighteen and a real fucking snooze that kid to the under forty two and a half.
I like the under here.
Look, both these quarterbacks are going to struggle. The running game for Tennessee is going to struggle at home. The running game for New England should be about what it normally is. There's just not gonna be a lot of scoring in this game. You know, I fully agree with taking Tennessee plus the seven. I fully indoors betting betting.
I knew it. I knew it.
Oh long, horseback, stop everybody's about everbody's talking about.
Yeah, how much shit was he talking like that? How much?
Shut up? No?
I got Tennis, I got New England winning twenty to eighteen. I hope to God that I flicked that score and Tennessee actually wins this game for my under eight and a half on New England.
Yeah, I need that one.
Like I said, it's fully possible both these quarterbacks should struggle. The problem with this one is, like I said, Tennessee's running game is.
Going to struggle here. I don't like that at all.
But again, I don't have all all of my grades in front of me right now. It will be Tennessee or pass for me, so they're gonna.
Be on my card. But New England will not.
Be on my card. I can promise you that all right.
Now, New England is ku.
You missed that New England's catching four percent of the money right now, so we could get a seven and a half if we wait, if we just be patient.
Oh okay, good, good, good seven and a half.
So let's just let it trickle. Let's let the trickle happen.
Oh I'm so in just interested to hear your opinion on this game, even though I also do have to say a rushroom break, but I will hold it for as long as I can want to hear your thoughts on this game. It's so chicgo bes and they're red hot gay quarterback. He's here, he's queer, and Longhorn is gonna have to fucking deal with him because right now to the first so many games of his career, he.
Looked like no bullshit.
He literally has some of the best measures of any quarterback that's ever been one all fucking time for the worst franchise for quarterbacks of all fucking time. Now, I told you when this kid was dripping, I believed in him. A newsgay, that's fine, a newsgay, it's fine.
Gay whatever.
But I said, this kid has the fucking talent. Can he be developed?
Can he learn? That's all?
That's always the fucking question with these it's and it's maddening, Longhorn, as you know you you are the draft guru, guy. It is maddening to watch these kids and all this talent and how they do or don't develop at every position and quarterback, you know, being the number one watch or whatever, but you watch them all, you guy guys.
You come in like this guy's gonna be a badass offensive line, he's gonna do this and do that, and he just doesn't develop right or you got your pet cast like this kid, he's been under scouted, he's a badass, he just needs developing, and then he does. And you you've picked amazing players all through the years, like this is the guy. Just fucking listen and then they do. They pop right. But it's so maddening because it's such
a personal experience with these kids. And he finally has a coach that will not not literally but figuratively, get into his ass.
And fucking make him do what he wants.
That's that's the key. It is the key.
The fucking football on time, onto a design play that's designed to fucking work. Just get rid of the god damn ball anyway, Chicago, Uh, preseason on this one, I know it was high. I had I had the minus seventh, Vegas had my seven and a half.
We're both hot. Vegas is even higher than me. We're sitting at four and a half currently. Long warn what do you go on?
I'm definitely gonna land on new Ormans in this game. It's not a sounder, it's not a big day pick. It's it's nothing like that. But yeah, you got Chicago coming off three straight wins, three straight wins. This is that some might some people might call that a winning streak. I don't know, but yeah, you're one hundred percent of right to just a deva for a second, Like it's all coaching. I'm so more convinced now than ever that this league is just so much more coaching than we have.
Coach.
Yes man, because when we just talked about with Callahan, like like, don't be shocked, even though it's a short short time, don't be shocked if you see Ward cam Ward for Tennessee play some of his better games, Like he won't he won't go crazy with with not a reset in an offseason and all that, but like, don't
be surprised if he just talent. True, yeah, so he'll still suck and have and struggle, but don't be surprised if you're like everyone's well, oh shit, he he there's a real quarterback, like like like flashes, You'll see flashes of it, just like we saw with Caleb of so you're like his very.
First throw when he threw literally from the right sideline almost to the left back pie line. Yeah throw obviously, yeah, no talent, But like with Caleb Williams, we saw flashes when he had bad coaches of like oh, ship that's that's a real NFL throw, more than we seen mccam so far.
But like, but now he's got a real NFL head coach years like, like someone that's a noble shit you're doing in my way with the highway type of guy. And he's taken to it. So credits a Kali. He's taking to it. He could he could reject it because he could be he could have that attitude like I'm the number one pick, I'm bigger than you, I'm making more money than you, blah blah blah. But he's taking it and they're starting to win. But with that said,
there's ninety percent chance of rain coming into this. The weather's going to be an issue in some of these games. So that's not that's not all that people are talking about it, but it's gonna be an issue. And with that rain and the fact that Chicago doesn't particularly run the ball that well. They did last week we saw them run all over Chicago. That hasn't been the case for them for the most of the year. New Orleans
is decent at stopping the run. So if they can't run the ball, and New Orleans does run the ball against the Chicago defense, that that's I think they're I think they were in the middle of the pack, you know, and run efficiency, run defensive efficiency. So it just lines up for New Orleans to be able to hang around in this game like they had almost every sale game besides one and then one other factor which means absolutely nothing.
It's just for it's just for talking heads, which I am uh is the Spencer Rattler versus versus Caleb Williams. This goes this, this you know situation ship goes back to the Oklahoma days, the you know, Caleb taking his job and then and then Caleb transferring to to USC and then Raller, then Raleer having to going to to having to go to South Carolina. For a team that isn't very good at New Orleans to have a little bit of a chip on its shoulder as a dog weather on its side. It just lines up for the
five five and a half points that they're getting. Is it's still open? Is it down to four and a half? Ah? Fuck me, So that that number is dropping. I'm on New Orleans. You gotta get it at four and a half. That that's the rock bottom number you got to get in this game. So New Orleans for me.
All right, so powering is out of Chicago.
However, the BBG has New Orleans six to twenty three. Okay, and that's over the total forty six and a half. But again, like Longhorner just mentioned, with the weather factor, I wouldn't trust the total on.
This one, just to be honest.
Now, TALEB does great out well, gaus half a point to the BBG. However, this is the best game, the best game I've ever grated.
Spencer Rattler at he gains two points.
Oh oh.
And for the running game both running systems, So Chicago games they're not good to running ball, but they gain a half a point to what they do versus what New Orleans does it wells isn't great run the ball, but they gain a full.
Point is what Chicago does.
And just just for reference, that's what significant? Why is what is that? What does that tell you? With the numbers?
I mean, a full point is generally like.
You know, the best, the best, the best upgrade you're gonna get is that.
In a running game? Yeah okay, now for quarterbacks usually three point.
Right, but for running game that's about as good as an upgrades you're gonna get situational.
Now.
I've seen a couple of two's pop here and there, but yeah, that's if anything. One and over is pretty elite. So from the ball, Spencer should be able.
To and that.
And that's the reason why they're total so hot.
Because both these teams basically grade out score a lot versus each other. It should be a decently matched shootouts. However, with the weather, we'll see how that works out. But that's the reason why I've got the game at forty nine points the over runners forty six and a half. The weather may affect that, it may bog it down a little bit, but again, schematically, both these teams should
have success scorning the ball. So you know, if both teams going to score the football, you always want to take the fucking dog because they're gonna be live the entire time. They should be able to move the ball and score the ball like it's it's New Orleans pass from here too, So I agree. All right, rememberving on to those Minnesota likings, they're hosting those.
Philadelphia Eagles. I'm interested to see what the preseason line on was this. All right, I had Philly.
Minus three and Vegas had Philly minus three, so we were locked up.
On this one.
Philly is now minus one and a half or so across the board.
Let's see. I think that's still accurate.
And the money currently is coming in on.
What the fucking same.
Money's plus eleven percent on the vikings right now, Longhorn, So money caming in on the vikings. Here's my problem in this game, though, if I look across the lines, it's basically one and a half. But the two sharpest books in Vegas are still setting it to at even Jews in Westgate and Circa. So the rest of the market has moved against the Eagles into the vikings, but the two sharpest books are holding it too.
That gives me a little bit of pause here. But what are you going to?
Well, I want the two at least to be on Minnesota here and I but I'm not liking some of the things. Like I mean, I know that the quarterback JJ McCarthy is practicing, and there has been a lot of talk from the coach that he's like gonna start him, but I haven't heard anything for sure as of our recording here right now. I don't want it to be
Jj McCarthy. I like, I like the way this team is coming into form with Carson Wentz, and now that may not last the whole the whole season, because Carson Wentz has a shelf life because he's not a you know, he's he's proven that he's not a long term solution at quarterback. But I don't know that that J. J. McCarthy is a solution right now at at any point this season. So I hope that it stay that he
stays with with with with Carson Wentz. Now, Carter and Mitchell are probably back for Philadelphia, so that those are those are two key pieces coming back for Philadelphia. But that offense is still dysfunctional. It's in dysfunction. It's not gonna be fixed because they hired within the building, and they hired so far down. Apparently the the the the
ladder that the guy is overwhelming. He doesn't know, he doesn't know how to fix this, at least at least it's proven that he doesn't want to fix it as of yet. So there's probably gonna be a firing at some point during this year at offensive coordinator for Philly. Now, is it is it after this game? Is it is it two or three weeks from now? I don't know. We've seen this before with Philly. They will fire AOC mid year. I expected to come and and when you
have a struggling offense and you've got I don't know. Okay, let's not DERAILINGO. That conversation with with with a guy. That's that's But I will say this that that that transmission transitions me into hurts off of a loss. Usually you think about teams, really good teams off a loss, that's their sweet spot. You bounce back on them. It's not the case of Philly. We've seen Philly go on these like are they are they? Yes, that's what they did and that's not typical with winning teams, but they
do it. So Philly off off of a loss with hurts, they're ten and eleven straight up in the next game, seven and fourteen against the spread in the next game. So this is not the spot for them. So yeah, I'm on Minnesota. And when you were going I really want the two two and a half, I missed the boat on that. I don't know was gonna get back up there. I was there flirting with JJ McCarthy, or at least he's practicing. I don't think that the coach
is gonna that's gonna help. They're not gonna go that way, and I don't think they're going to. I think I think the coach is gonna be like, let's just ride out with with Carson Wentz. Let's see how far it's gonna take us. But but you know, Minnesota is getting healthy on the old line and on defense Cashman Green van Grienkle might play. The old line is back to four fists healthy from the from the start of the year. So they're starting to They're starting to get healthy on
that Minnesota side. And yeah, I like Minnesota. Oh is this a no, this isn't a sounder. You know what I pulled it. It's what this was gonna be a sounder, but I pulled it. But just because of the J J. McCarthy thing, like until I hear that it's gonna be Carson Wentz and not JJ, I can't play with with a sounder like that. But but I do like Minnesota plus one and a half, plus two, whatever highest number you can get them at.
Just look up some stats here again, because I don't get to go through everything. Now the power ringing has Philly here. I've got this. It's forty three and a half as the total. I've got it graded slightly under. I've got Minnesota.
Winning this game twenty to twenty through the BBG.
This is a really, really, really.
Bad matchup for Carson Wentz.
He loses three points to the BBG, so that's as bad as you can get. However, Jalen Hurst loses half a point and Minnesot's run game grades out as flat. So that's fine. But again, Philly, this cavalst for this Philly team. And I said it to start the year. If Barkley is not gonna be Barklay, Jalen Hurts is.
Not the quarterback.
He's not the quarterback to carry your team for a season. And they grade up minus one point five.
To the BBG against this defense.
So that makes all the difference in the world. Because all of their points to the BBG last year when I had them win about seven blah blah, it all came from the running game. It all came from they were gaining that they were the only team them in Baltimore last year were the only team to gain like two points to the VBG the running game. And now both those teams are losing that much in the running, because that's how bad.
It's fucking suffering.
And even as bad as Scarson wins grades out, which he is, he grades up terribly versus scene, they still grade out to win because Philly's not gonna be able to score the ball without that running attack, because Jalen Hursts can't score the fucking football.
He just that's not who he is. If you look at so, I just look at some stats.
You mentioned their defense long morning, Philly's nineteenth right now, nineteenth and ep April play. This was the best defense in the league last year. Nineteenth and success rate, So that's just a straight nineteen. They're below average on defense. Just straight up, they are below average on defense. I'm pulling off their offense. Now, if you look at their success rate on offense overall, where are.
We setting at? They can't be that low. I must have missed them.
They can be that low.
Jesus wait, where is Philly.
Go to the bottom third.
I'm looking. I'm looking for the stupid Eagles. Fine, I'm not seeing Oh they're Oh that's because I have it. Oh I've got it inverted. Sorry, boys and girls.
Uh, twenty first, twenty first success rate in offense. So they are all definitions. And I said this was it last week when I had a handicap it. They're blo Irish football team.
They're below average football team. That's just what. That's the reality. What the stats says the reality with their performance. I know the record doesn't quite say so right now, but like you said, they go on these streets and they are in a fucking funk right now. I don't want to bet Minnesota, particularly with Carson wins, especially as bad as he grades out. But I will give you a trend here, and this is on Minnesota.
They are on the bye. Uh no, sorry, they're they're run. This is not on this game?
Sorry?
Uh is it not Minnesota?
No? Okay, sorry they don't have a buy apparently not.
Let's see week eight looking up? No, no bye?
Okay, my bad, So I plugged this on the wrong spot. So yeah, I mean, just overall, Minnesota grades have to win. I don't want Minnesota to win for sure, but why not with Carson they have an under on them. M hm No, I don't think I had, so I don't care. But either way Carson wentz he grades it's so bad. This is one of those games I'm looking at back on my board three two right now in Minnesota. We'll
see when I get all the grades up there. I would not be very excited to bet either one of these teams.
To be honest with you, if this was Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback for Minnesota, would you like Minnesota in this spot?
Depending on how your graded out versus defense and that and that's what keeps calling because this defense.
Isn't good, not gooding out terribly terribly.
It was a it was a trick question because er, because I was trying to trap because Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers have basically the same PFF quarterback score. So if you yeah, so if you just said Aaron Rodgers, you feel good with Aaron Rodgers here, then you should feel good with Carson Wentz. But neither one or grading out particularly well, yeah I don't.
I mean, you know, look, I respect the PFF grades or whatever, but we've built pretty good successor at the BBG. Just because it's such matchup base data, this is just a terrible and maybe Aaron were grade out you know, minus one versus minus three, and this would just be the matchup for him, even though there even though basically the same player, they both suck whatever, It's fine.
Yeah, but teams, But teams, you can win a game nineteen to seventeen where both quarterbacks play like shit like that at the end, I'm expecting that. Yeah, at the end of the day, I don't. I don't care if Carson Wentz scores thirty winners game or if Carson Wentz scores thirteen at winters game, as long as Minnesota gets the cover because if honestly, if it gets back to two and a half, you can probably you can probably find this on my on my premium card. I missed the boat early in the week.
Yeah, the money's coming down on Minnesota.
Too, so it's not gonna happen.
Probably not going that way. Yeah, but yeah, to your point, I mean, yes, I don't.
I don't expect. I don't expect either. On the offense, I expect the under. I expect the under in this game. I don't expect either offense. I mean, outside of a whatever bus to play fucking turnover touchdown something. Well, Philly loves to score touchdowns on fucking special teams, so they love doing that. Ship Outside of that, no, I expect a very low scoring game. That'sh game. One of them
wins by I Field going the end. We'll see who it is, all right's one of those Sandy Diego super Chargers and they're hosting those Indiana Joneses.
Oh in the preseason in this one.
I know, I know, me and Vegas is gonna be wrong here just because seth Indiana Jones.
So I had.
I had Indy plus four and a four and a half, Vegas had them plus six. We're said that the Chargers minus one and a half long minus one and a half. Huge downgrade on your boy, Herbs. I don't know, it's it seems like a lot. It seems like a lot.
Yeah, look, I love the Chargers here. This is gonna be the most the Colts are gonna be the most public dog spot ever. Everyone everyone's gonna tease them up, Everyone's gonna take them plus the two. How can how can the best team in the NFL be underdogs? They're the best, Like this is just gonna be the public dog, and look, the public dog, the public wins sometimes.
We just saw this.
We just saw this and we called it and we had a trend on it when they were undefeated and where they go to.
The Rams, the Rams, same building, same building.
Bad dog, Like, how could you be a dog when you're undefeated?
Yes, so, And to be fair, there was some fuckery they could have won. They could have won that game. But that that the way foot ball go. And in this spot, look the Chargers are. They started the season underrated and they were beating teams as dogs, and we had value on them as the dogs. When when the year started, then they got overrated. And so huh, no,
I'm talking without Chargers. They start remember three and oh against their own division, like and they weren't dogs in every game, but you know what I mean, Like they started three and oh uh certainly first week against against uh Kansas City when they were dug. Yeah, so like so like they overachieved to start the year. Then they had some injuries, were overinflated off the three and o, and the value was the other way. I gainst the teams that were playing, and we had some cashes on
some of that. Now we're getting I think to the other side. You know, Joe Waltz coming back this week. This is a hardball spot. I just think that that that the all the public and all the money is gonna be on Indy and that's that. That's enough right there. Both Steven's like like, I'm not a I don't have the models like like bos stephas does like like just to put peel the curtain back, like like both Stephas has all the numbers, like he tells you about every week.
He's got all the models and this and that and all these different things that he tells you. I don't have that. I have historical knowledge. And I fade the public. I fade the narrative, whatever the narrative is. That's what I'm looking to fade always. Now I look for other things to back me up along that way. But that's how I do it. And nobody wants to fucking Chargers here. Nobody wants the Chargers here. Everyone wants the underdog best
team in the NFL. So give me, give me, give me harball to just to just this is a hardball spot. He's a he's a sixty percent ish head coach in the NFL. That's just what he is. And these are the top of games that he wins. So give me the Charges at home to get the coach the second loss of their season and the same goddamn building through seven.
Weeks all right, so on this one, look to be honest with you feeling wise, like spot wise, I'm one with you.
Mathematically, I just can't get there.
Just because I mean, both these teams grade out literally like the BPG hasn't twenty three to twenty three.
Tie, which is to the under which you know, forty eight and a half.
I kind of feel a little bit good about that. The reason why I do herbs grades out flat here. This is a bad grade out for Indiana Jones. He loses a point in half of the VPG and they lose half a point in the running game. Now, the Chargers grade out flat with their running game. But the Chargers running game has been so hit or miss this year, you know, so overall it grades out of the tie. Now, everything Longhorn said is correct. This is the spot for
the Chargers. This is not the spot for Indy. It would have to be the Chargers passed from me here. I look back at the buckets. Indy is getting the money, so and that's the money. When I said the money, that's a that's a bet for splinter or bet split percentage between tickets and money.
They're getting it.
And that's been a very good indicator for us for the last years, basically whoever's.
Getting the money, it's basically been hitting at sixty percent.
So if you just took one indicator overall, you're winning sixty percent. So now it's a long time between when we're recording now and game day to where that metric lands. I usually grade it on Saturday afternoon, and that's generally when I try to put the picks. If I'm betting the whole board, which I will again this week, that's when I'll wait to We could see it's only like eleven percent right now, that could easily flip. I wanted to flip because I definitely don't want to be on Indy here.
I think everything one Horne just said is correct.
It's it's this is one of those games the Chargers are gonna go achieve their goals.
That they've set before them.
This has to be the game that they This has to be a game they wins.
And and how long is Daniel Jones. It's a great story. Love the story. Look, and I don't think he's gonna like turn into a pumpkin obviously as we're as we're approaching Halloween. But he's not gonna be perfect like that. He is still Daniel M f and Jones, so like he's got a game in him coming that's just gonna be a.
It's a bad match up for him for what San Diego does schematically, for what he thrives, and so he's set up to.
Fail in this game.
San Diego slash La working on La Chargers. We're not quite got there yet.
Win a playoff game. Win a playoff game, and I'll consider calling.
You there you go, there you go, Chargers. That's all you gotta do.
All right, let's move one of.
Those Dan Burr Broncos Hilsen, oh those New York football jus. All right, in this one, I had the Giants plus nine, Vegas seven plus seven and a half.
We're sitting at.
Seven seven consensus.
Let's see where it opened at though, eight, so it opened closer to my number.
But the market has spoken, and the market loves the bash bros In New York with those fucking two monkeys.
Or I'm glad they're white and when you're calling the monkeys, that's that's gonna be problematic.
Yeah, they're white boys. Nobody, nobody can cancel us over that.
So uh, fair enough? What do you got on your New York Giants.
Oh man, they're coming in with all this white boy swag. I mean, like, this feels like the most trappy.
This is the whitest game of all, Like these two white boys leading seem into one of the whitest towns in all of America, and.
Then we're like, it's like the White Boy Bowl, I mean basically.
Pretty much pretty much. And I want to be on the seven and a half for sure. Now at seven, I'm losing. I'm losing. This feels like a seven point game. I don't even I don't know how this is good. Now, this either feels like a seven point game or the most trappy seven and a half, if that's what the number that you're looking at is in the world. And we get slow death to a twenty three to ten spare me to death bow Knicks performance that somehow they get.
They get a fucking pick six that takes it from a seventeen sixteen to ten Denver lead to a twenty three to ten Denver win. Like, just this feels trappy, Like I don't have a big feeling either way on this. I'm I'm probably staying away from this one certainly at seven. I'm staying away because you can't bet Denver. You just you can't lay these points with the way Bonicks play. You literally can't. You're you're just I mean, you might win if you do, but you just logically you cannot
make a case points. Yeah, you can't do it. Like so, so I won't do it until until I see Bownicks play the way he played towards the end of last year. He is a can't bet player at a big number. But on the other side, you know the the I mean I don't they're they're coming off these wins and all this swag, they're this crash is coming like it's it is still a rookie quarterback. It is still a white running back. That is, he plays hard as fuck. Don't get me wrong. I would love give me players
like that on my team all day long. Like I want a player like that on my team.
But but not because he's a wife, But it's just because he plays hard. But like, but like a player like that is gonna be maximized when you get a player like uh.
A Jamier Gibbs with Detroit. If if if the Giants want to be serious about what they're building. That's fine. You can have your David Montgomery slash scatter Bow. You can have him, but you've got to have the lightning to go with it. If you're just running at Scatterbow and you're just punching in there for three and a half four yards of care, that ain't gonna work. It's not going to work. You gotta have the lightning with
the thunder. So it just feels long story short. It feels trappy to take the seven and a half with the Giants, but I cannot take Denver. So it's a stay away game from me, all right.
So I didn't run any numbers on this game because I don't have enough data on uh, what's his name the quarterback.
For Jackson Dark, Jackson Dark.
But we've got the just looking at the eighth best success rate rush defense in Denver. So look, I'm I would never lay these points, but this is it's a past man.
I'll just keep it simple one, all right, all right?
Moving all those Arizona bien I don't know, maybe who knows, who knows they're holds.
Those green bar packers though, and preseason on this.
I'm probably gonna be will So I had this pick them. Vegas had it at Arizona plus one and a half. We're sitting at six and a half with girls, So me and Vegas way the fuck off on this game.
So long home? What do you got?
What I am drawing? I don't know if it's a seven beers or it's just I don't know what it is. But what's the what's the quarterback for? Yeah? B set, that's it's it's look I rolled down.
Because by the way, six and a half and market moving towards seven.
Jesus, So I don't I don't care literally which quarterback it is. I'm at the point I don't care because because this is the sweet spot for Arizona. Now I'm not This isn't gonna be on my card more than likely, this isn't gonna be in any of my contents, more than likely. But this is the spot for Arizona, no matter what quarterback you got. And and green Bay wake me up the next time Green Bay plays a full game on offense and defense to where they look like, oh my god, this is is green Bay gonna win
Super Bowl? Is Greenmay gonna win a game that that that that against a good team. I don't know, so you are so like they're.
So Philadelphia, Like, yes, it looks like they look.
Interested and then uninterested so often like remember when Philly went on I mean even last year when they won the Super Bowl run like there were points and games like do they even care that we're playing football right now?
What what are they doing?
Yeah? And you don't. And you don't go on the road in the NFL against a team that's historically a good dog spot and win games by margin when you're playing like that. So yeah, this is a quick, easy handicap for me. Give me Arizona. And I don't care who's playing quarterback.
Yeah, I don't have.
Any numbers on this game again because I don't know what quarterback explained, not that it really fucking matters, as we said, But if you look at success right on offense, though, green Bay is the number two success right on offense, right behind Indiana Jones and the Colts. And if you look at defense, oh, let's just look, let's just pull up Arizona Dolphins. Sorry, Arizona on offense is twenty ninth, twenty nine. They're only ahead of the Dolphins, the Titans,
and the fucking Browns. They have been awful, like Kyler has been so bad. He's been so bad on defense. You've got green Bay sitting at eleventh, Arizona twenty third. There's seven point home dogs for a reason. But again, like you said, green Bay likes to play with their food.
Six and a half. Ah, I mean, green Bay is not gonna make my card.
But if I had to throw a nickel on it, if I had to bet it, I'd lay the six and a half.
I'm not laying seven. Just a bad number to.
Lay, all right. Well, if if I had anything, just give me the point, like a in an online contest where you got to pick every game. I'm taking the points and I'm i mean, hats off to green Bay if you can.
I'm not taking the six and a half. I'm just not gonna do it, all right.
So I do have one trend on this though, and it is for the Cardinals. Actually, sorry, change my opinion. I forgot I have the trend. If you're all going on to the Bay home dog to twenty eighteen, twenty eight, and twenty and two fifty eight point three percent against the spread, one point seven percent ats marginal, a line of four point three that gets us exactly through the seven. So again, I wouldn't lay seven. Six and a half is very iffy on that trend.
Yeah, it's not huge, that's not I was one and better, but that's that's good enough, good enough.
But it literally gets you exactly to seven points with the ats margin on the average line, so literally you're on the cutting line. So this game historically is gonna come down to one mistake by green Bay that lets Arizona cover or one mistake by Arizona that lets screen Bay beat them by fucking double digits. All right, all right, let's go on to Oh it's one of the one of the oldest robberies.
Definitely one of the games of the week. It's those Dallas.
Oh boys, now we got some action. We got some action.
All right on this one.
I had Washington minus three, Vegas had them minus two and a half.
Money been coming in, pouring in on Dallas.
Here, it's down to one and a half or so. Here live, let's refresh this.
And get a correct number here.
Yeah, so it's fuck drafting size of two and a half. So if you like the cows, go there. Let's call it about one point two five because minus one anywhere. It's at its minus one seventeen, so one one and a half. Skins road favorites your long horder.
You got Draft Kings just giving out the candy. So yeah, I'm all over the Cowboys here. As a matter of fact, both he was get that sounder ready because we're definitely gonna be hitting that sounder on this one. So let me know. I need to hear it. I want to hear it. Hit that sounder, baby.
I'm looking.
Where is the head hit that sounder?
I am looking for the sounder.
No, that's not it.
Hold on, I thought.
You didn't.
I didn't.
Oh my god, yeah we st.
That ain't What did you do? Oh? Here we go? There we go. Hit that sound there it is. Hey, forget the last twenty seconds. Did you heard? Because Dallas is gonna win this game. I don't know how AI is gonna cut this up. But let me you know what, let's let's let's trick Ai po Steve's let's trick them in this game. Bosiphas hit that sounder because Dallas is gonna win this game against now one unit on the
money line. I'm not I'm not doubling up. I'm not taking I'm not I'm not taking the one and a half. It's just it's just not a it's not a good to double up. Now. If you can get the DraftKings two and a half, yeah, give me some of that two and a half and the money line. But but based on how we're gonna great to hear, just give me the money line for one unit. As far as the game goes, we got CD coming back. That that's basically the big line movement here is just CD coming back.
He's worth of the least a full point. You'll probably see this line moved even further once it gets more and more out of the public. We're not one hundred percent sure on who's playing receiver for Washington. More than likely mcclarin's come up plus one oh five. That's what I got last eight games in this matchup seven and one to the Cows, Ats Dak ten to three ats versus Washington on his in.
His last division.
He fucking owns this division. He owns the team, Like you've got to have a real good reason to go against him here. And the way Deck's playing right like if he was playing bad, you know, like like currently like okay, Dak own the division. But he's playing back. Uh uh, he's playing lights out, he's playing MVP level on offense, and he's got his guy coming back. Just give me the Cols here. Let's not overthink this one, all right.
So Kyle ranking here has Washington. I've got Washington win this game twenty eight to twenty four. That's to the under the kid at fifty.
Four and a half.
Yeah, massive over under massive massive.
Now Dak does gain having point to the BBG versus Washington defense. However, this is Jay Daniels's best game.
He's great. Out with me, say this every against Cowboys. This defense is of course to the historical bat. Historical bat. Yes, he ain't two point five.
Now the Cal's game half a point. Also on the rushing game versus Washington rushing defense. Again, this defense isn't great, but the Redskins in a point and a half against this Cowboys rushing defense.
Look, the Cows right now.
Are leading the board three to two. But again, I still have several buckets left the grade and they do have the money coming in, so I don't totally disagree with it. But as the numbers great out, it's gonna have to be if if the money shifts anymore. If it gets down to one, it shifts back to Washington. I'm gonna have to be opposite.
Of you here.
I can't take a Cowboys team versus Here's what I'm open with the cows.
It's very, very hard.
And I was on Carolina last week and we want we won outright.
We got three and a half points.
We won outright, And that was the mass of the team that can't score the ball, cannot score the football this Washington can't absolutely score the football.
They do at home. Carolina scores at home. They can't score on the road. But but point point taking, point taking.
Versus a team that absolutely can score the football. I mean, Dak almost has to be perfect. Never Now City Lamb come back, that's a huge, huge get. But again, the offense hasn't been the problem even that. Like I was wrong with my handicapping them in the first week of the mount I think I lost that game against them. They said, hey, they can't score with that Citdee Lamb. The fuck they can't. Dak's throwing bombs to fuck whatever the fucking.
Other guy's name is, sorry, George Pickens.
George Pickens. So the offense has not been the problem. So them scoring the ball not gonna be a problem. Them stopping anybody else from scoring is always gonna be problem. And now you have an offense so that comes in that absolutely can score the football and does score the football every week.
I can't do it.
I cannot get there on the cows here because and not not to say that they won't or whatever win, but it's.
Just the trends, man, that's the that's the that's the trends.
Happen in a shootout tide game like this, like you know, again the over runners fifty in a week full of overrunners between forty two and forty four, and it's gross ass league with shitty quarter back play.
This fifty four and a half.
Now watch this one be a twenty three or twenty just like what the fuck happened? That's the way that will go. But no, I just think that if you're low.
Scoring until like the second half, and then they're both gonna just explode.
Yeah, I think, all right.
What's uh, what's your over runner on the first half of this week?
Well, if if it's fifty four and a half, it's probably gonna be twenty seven and a half. I would guess, you know, if it was twenty eight and a half, but then you're gonna have a total more like fifty six fifty seven, which you're not gonna get in the NFL, then I might be inclined. But at that twenty seven, twenty seven and a half, Nah, it's not it's not
a bad thought. It's not a bad thought. But you know, like these these two quarterbacks could come out against these shitty defenses and just and just light them up to start. But I don't.
BPG said they're going to and the BBG said they're both gonna be able to run the ball. Now I think, I honestly think the difference in this game is going to be which team actually commits to the run so that they both should have success. Now, it was said early on about uh Shoddy as they like to call him, that he was gonna be very committed to run. He's not been committed to the run now for a good reason. They haven't been able to run the ball very well.
Upside of like maybe one game their offensive line has not done very well. Longworre told you about them going in the season. But here they do actually have a matchup which they should be successful. So if the Cowboys will be committed to the run, that's really their avenue of victory here because they should have success running the ball against the Washington defense. We know Washington's gonna be
committed to the run, is what they fucking do. They have all their plays and stuff that they run off of that that's where Daniels has all of success. I think the difference in this one is gonna be the fact that Daniels should have more success than Dak Buoba Ceedee Lamb coming back.
Who knows.
I think they're definitely live dogs. It's just with the numbers great out right now, it's definitely I gotta be on the office side of those.
One very eleven dogs, very eleven dogs. All right.
Moving on, it's those San Francisco I guess forty nine ers with left of them hosting those hot Atlanta Falcons.
I'll go ahead and quote the preseason lines on.
This, although it's not even the same football football team. I had than minus seven. Vegas had a minus six and a half. We're sitting at one and a half. Obviously, long were huge down grades to the injury. This is not the same Fancisco team. That we thought was coming into the season. So you know we're left of what we got.
What do you got on those.
Yeah, I'll go ahead and take care for you because that sounder we're taking Atlanta two units this one, bo seves two units on the money line in this game. Fred Warner being out on this defense is the death the death of this defense. Like they were already dealing with Bosa being out number one and young players that that Sala has trying to, like, you know, get in the right spots, make plays when they can here and
there and the only one nineteen I'll take it. The only way that that Sala can have success from the sideline of getting all these young players to be in the right spots to play, to play sound defense is if you have a field general on the field line of people out the correct way. They've played a lot of games without without Bosa in their in their history as the forty nine ers, because he's injury prone. They
don't have a history of playing without Fred Warner. So so and I've got it right here, seven and fourteen straight up without Bosa? What's there are they own? Fourteen without Warner and Bosa together, Like I don't know what that normal people like it, it can't be good. So yeah, everything points to an offense with a lot of moving parts and misdirection for Atlanta, with weapons that can hit you at all points of the field. Bijon Pitts has had a resurgon with Pennix and Drake London becoming a
true number one. This is gonna be chaos for San France. Like I know that the quarterback's coming back, I know the Kittle's coming back. Great. The quarterback is still not healthy. And is he good if everything's perfect around him? Yeah, he's good. If everything's not perfect around him, is he just a run of the meal, your average starting quarterback? Whatever. I love the team that Atlanta has right now. I don't love the team that San Frans actually putting on
the field because of injury. Wrong team favor, wrong team favor. Give me Atlanta to win this game.
I didn't grade this game just because all the injuries and everything and the quarterback n startainty.
But I agree with you on.
Look, there's no difference to me between Mac Jones and Rock Party. Rock Party was the last pick of the draft for a reason. I watched the kid play his whole career in college. I've been saying it, Yeah he's fine, He's not that dude. If he comes back, fine, They're so beat up and so injured, you know. And I had this funny thing is as far as Vegas and I were off on this line, I was higher than Vegas.
By quite a bit.
We talked about the preseason podcast. I was so much higher in Vegas than Atlanta coming into the season, and I was still this fucking wrong on this line. And that just should tell you what the downgrade has been because of the injuries to this team.
I don't know to make the San Francisco team anymore.
You know, we you know, Longhorn, we had we both lost a teaser on the Rams two weeks ago when this was a mass unit going in to face them. And the Rams are a better team than Atlanta, there's no doubt about that. And they beat them, So can they can they steal that same kind of resiliency at home?
Maybe maybe they can. I don't know.
I don't know that I can get involved in this game.
I don't know.
I don't know if Atlanta is ready to go on the road and win this game again. And I was hired on Atlanta. Then you was hired Atlanta in the market, but I still don't know if they're ready to go do this.
So to that point, we talked about in the summer podcast that we did like like talking without these teams going in the season, Atlanta being so bad drafting on defense in their history. Well, and we talked about how they took the two first round pass rushers Jalen Walker out of Georgia, James Price Junior out of Tennessee mortgage the future a little bit to do that, and then they also took Watts Xavier Watts out of out of
Notre Dame in the second or third round. I can't remember all three of them starting, all three of them producing, sprinkling some some free angines. They brought on the defense, this defense, Leonard Floyd being one of them. This defense has turned into Okay, we've got something here. We've got now, we got something we can build around. A mix of old, a mix of young. It's all coming together. And when you have this this type of this cohesion going, it
only gets better. As the season gets going. And we already see what's going on with the offense on on that side of the ball. It just we we got two ships passing in the night. Here, we got San Fran sitting at whatever their record is, their record that they're they're four and two, and we got and and they're going the wrong way and in the night, and we got Atlanta three and two going the other way
to night. So I think I think by the end of the year, these two ships are heading in opposite directions. And this this line here is gonna look ridiculous in about six seven weeks. So yeah, give me a Lanta to win this game.
I mean it already does if you look at it.
Like I said, press projection between me and Vegas said, I mean, we're already six points away.
Yeah, what we had.
So Atlanta defense eighteenth right down success rate, that's a big improvement from where they started the season.
So yeah, with three rookie starting look at.
The offense success rate twelve again, big improvement from starting the season. So I agree with you. They're trending the right direction. They're trending more towards what my numbers said that they would be.
Now we'll see where they end up.
Yeah, all right, let's move on to those d Detroit Lions.
They got what just.
A Monday night. You know, I can do the Monday night at the double header.
We got the double header Monday night. That all right, free season. On this one, I had Detroit minus four. Vegas had them minus three and a half. We're sitting currently at minus five and a half.
Yeah, minus five and a half.
More money, money, money, money, money, money coming in on the lines.
That opened four and a half. So even bigger favorites than I projected them, Longhorn on this one. So what do you got here?
Yeah, this is kind of the exact opposite of how I felt about the Kansas City Detroit matchup last week. It was just a spot for Kansas City for me the way I do it, this one, it's a spot for Detroit. You've got you've got against the spread, goliaths going up against each other. Here, Baker against the spread, just a monster at Tampa Bay sixteen and eight against the spread since he's been there. You just as at sixteen and eight as a dog against the spread. You
you literally have to have a great fucking reason. Yes, you have a great reason to go against them. But on the other side, you got Detroit. That's basically a seventy seventy percent cover Ats almost put them in any situation. They're seventy percent across the board. And but then add to that Detroit off of a straight up loss, which are coming off a loss against against Kansas City. They're twenty and eight ATS the next game, including eleven straight
ATS wins. Coming off a loss like this is just like something has to give in this tug of war of ATS strengths and what's gonna what's gonna be the deciding factor for me? Are the injuries for Detroit. You got you got McNeil coming back there. They're Pro Bowl defensive tackle. Adding to that to that defensive mix, and you've got Taylor Decker their Pro Bowl off. It's a tackle coming back. So they're getting healthier in the trenches.
And on the other side, Baker is on his fourth, fifth, and sixth receiver and his three receivers and his three receiver set. He's on number four, five, and six. Look, the dude's been playing like an MVP. He's overcome all this and will he do some bakers stupid ridiculous magic in this game. One hundred percent he will. But I have to be something has to give. I has to be on Detroit.
Here did you see the test Johnson.
Yes, where he thought they were tanning MVP for him. That was not for you, homeboy. Now you gotta do a little more. But like but but to that, like like Baker is taking these guys that are you know, late draft picks nobody's anyway has heard of and still winning games. That has to give us some point, or does it. But but for me, I'm wanna be on Detroit. This is a spot for Detroit for me. And you gotta get it under six though, don't don't wait for
to get to six and might get to six. Get it under the key number six, all right.
So powering is great out Tampa Bay at this number. The money is still coming on Detroit though, And I don't have a full bucket.
Grade, so I could get to six, could get to six, so total fifty two and a half, it's a no call for me. I have it at fifty two.
I've got Detroit winning this game twenty seven to twenty five, which would be a Tampa Bay cover. However, you know, it should be a decent matchup for golf against a half point, should be a decent matchup for Baker, though gains a full point what I don't like about the Detroit side is they lose a half a point that the BBG on their running game.
I don't like that.
But they have had some offensive line introduce to your point, so maybe that canceled it out. It's a flat output for the Tampa Bay running game, so they should do what they do. However, I do have this trend. Detroit is going on the buy next week. They are at home, and they are the favorites to twenty eighteen. In that situation, forty four and twenty six ATS sixty two point nine percent plus one point nine ATS margin on an average line of you guessed it was and girls five and
a half, which is exactly where we're sitting at. So winning this game by seven historically is Detroit or passed from me here.
It does feel like it does feel like a seven game. That's what exactly what it feels like exactly.
And if we get beat on that, it's because Baker pulls some shit.
Up his ass, which he could.
He always can. All right on to the second. By bright up, bright.
Up Monday night football game, Oh Seattle, Oh Seahawks pustles Houston. That's Houston with an h taxans on this one the preseason line. Let's see, I had Seattle minus one, Vegas had a minus one and a half. We're sitting at three and a half currently, girls, so long horred.
To go on this? Oh well, Steefests, you better get it ready because I'm feeling a little dangerous here, so you better get that sounder ready for it. I'm going big on this one. So let's let's call this one the danger Zone game of the week. So, dude, is this three? Is this grade at three and a half or three?
Let me check the current board. We're looking at um and that's more like three point two five three. It's three and three the West, it's three.
And a half. It been online three and a half.
I see, all right, fine, I'll I'll just do the plus three for one unit and then the one unit on the money line. Then I was gonna do two units if it was three and a half, but we gotta we gotta be fair of what the time we put it out. So it was three and a half three and now so one in one and the money.
Is coming on on Houston, So I think.
You're getting okay, okay, uh So in this game, weird weird thing going on with Seattle where there and this goes back to last year with their new coach that came from Baltimore. I always forget his fucking name. What is his name? It's not McDonald, isn't McDonald, I don't know whatever, the new coach that came from the de guy the game from Baltimore to Seattle. We're a lot of beers in this is the last game of the week. So this is they're four and eight straight up at home.
I'll take it. Four and eighth straight out, straight up at home for Seattle, three and nine eight t s run at home. For whatever reason, it's it's and that and that. That's a that's the home of the twelfth Man that they stole from from Texas, A and M like this. This is doesn't make any sense that they had to pay. You get a pamp when you steal. You know, we're coming up on Christopher Columbus Day. You gotta you gotta pay when you steal like this is
the way. That's the way it goes. The shutdown corner factor for Houston, whether it's whether it's Lasseter or it's their best one Stingley. They have two guys. They can throw a J s N. And if you take away J s N, which I don't know that they will, but if you if you can at least slow him down, that is a one man wrecking game for Donald to go to. So if you can take him out, if
you if they take him out, forget about it. This is this is a Houston win if they if they slow him down, though they can they can stay within these three points and we'll see what happens at the end. I like the trend up for the Houston offense that the old line hasn't looked as bad the last two or three weeks as they did the first two or three weeks. And then and in the pass rush for Houston, if they can get the Donald and they can fluster him,
we've seen in the past that that's his downfall. Now he's he's kind of turned his career around and maybe he can be able to deal with this. But even if he deals with a pass rush, he still has to deal with the fact that there's some lockdown corners taking away his number one target, and he's got to find some alternative places to go. Even if he does deal with the pass rush. So everything points to Houston. For me, would have loved the three and a half.
I'll take the three and give you the money line at plus. What'd you say one's That's what I'm on, all right.
Longharn has been red hot on the danger zone. Hit both of them last week on Atlanta and on Chicago Chicago, so red hot there. It's been his number one play this season. He's in the black of the season. I don't have the numbers befrom of me. I apologize for that. I have not told them up yet. However, uh in this one, the power record has Seattle graded there forty one. We're sitting it over under. I've got it over that. I've got Seattle win in twenty three twenty So it's
a no call through the BBG. Now, this is a flat matchup for Sammy D. It's not a good match up for straw though, loses the point of the BBG. Both run a game great out as flat. I expect you this to be the close Skins. We have dueling trends here too, so you've got the away dog going into or coming off of the buye.
So that is this is a great spot.
Houston.
It's fifty to fifty, so thirty five, thirty four and one minus point six cumulative to the spread of a line of five point three, So they're still in the covers on there, however, better spot for Seattle, so they're going onto the by home favorite. Same trend as we just gave out forty four to twenty six and one sixty two point nine percent average line of five and a half winning by one point nine percent margins is to win this game by seven and then I even brought it down a little bit further.
If you're going on the buy and you.
Are a favorite, and you're at home, and you won your last football games, in other words, you're feeling good going on vacation. Since twenty eighteen thirty seven and seven straight up winning by eight point six points a game eighty four point one percent twenty nine fourteen and one sixty seven point four percent ats with a plus two point nine eight ts margin on a line of five point seven.
Again, so winning about seven to eight.
Points there and over the total as I do have predicted twenty four eighteen and two fifty seven percent of the time on an average total forty seven point one, we're only at forty one here. So and that's that's plus one point seven on that so basically forty eight points and they win by seven. It's I mean, the buckets right now are split from what I have greated. Houston is taking the money. I'm gonna wait till Seattle, maybe they get down to two and a half.
I'm gonna hammer Seattle. I'm one against long Horn on this pick.
It's just it's too too many things, too many factors, and I already have one of my three on top of all that. It's just it's a bad it's a bad spot for us. It's just a bad spot. It's a bad spot. But Longhorn has been red hot, and uh, I'm glad I didn't go against someone any dangers done last week, I would have lost both of them. So I'm glad I didn't do that. But on this one, it's gonna be number dependent on me. We'll see what I put out on the Patreon page later on if it gets a two and a half.
Though there's I wouldn't bet Houston under three, So you gotta you gotta agree with the locked in three. Yeah, No, I get that we could both win for sure. I like I like when we both man, Well, of course I would, you would push, but I know that's why I You know what, I'll just leave it the same because I really wanted the three and a half just to just to steal unit in case they don't win. But I'll just leave the same.
We're good to go, all right, boys and girls, that was all the wins coming to the as and baby. All right, Longhorn on some of those free I said, free picks of the week, you said you weren't gonna go with your word and stay to Tennessee.
So what do you got from.
Well, I'm not taking Tennessee because they have a new coach, but I will take those Vegas Raiders getting twelve. I'm looking. I'm stirring at twelve. So I'm taking the twelve Vegas Raiders plus twelve free pick out the week?
All right, now you college pre pick the week.
Oh we're going up to Montana, baby, with those fucking fighting.
Cougars, I think, Josh Allens.
Yeah, taking on Sacred Heart.
What yep is this? We're doing basketball games?
Now, we're doing basketball.
We're going over fifty three and a half on the total.
That kid a lot of three pointers, a lot of three pointers.
They're good at shooting threes.
Don't even worry about it, and take the over fifty three and a half. I like it up to let's say fifty seven. Thinking sitting about fifty four right now, So let's get it in while we can get it in. Boys and Girls, Montana and sack sacred hearts over the fifty.
Three and a half.
Alright, I'm telling me the fablius Patreon page, we were already.
Already went in on the week. Let's go baby, tell me one more.
Time, gotta love it. Go to that Patreon page, patreon dot com, slash bet, underscore f g H and joining in the fun of busting up these bookies both. Stephen is on a heater. I'm looking to get back on the winning side of things. I'm hitting the danger zones, hitting all that's good, But we gotta we gotta win on the Patreon side because that's where we give you our our heavy hitting. So people, stop throwing away your hard money on a guessing game. Let the pross do
that heavy ling. So sign up tele a friend and join in on the fun of watching football, drinking beer in never pay a bookie again.
Come on, a damn people, never pay a book again, Stevens.
I guess you talk about you as you know about