I want me some glory over.
Mm hmmmmmmmmm.
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Hm.
Oh yeah, Hello, Welcome to the FGH podcast.
Listen on app podcast sound about Speakers YouTube, watch us lot on YouTube, Live on Instagram, live upon, TikTok live reporting anyway you can afford it.
Maybe you think each other glory. Oh se you're tuning in this week housball Cities. I'm join here, Adam oh By, my good buddy Ones.
What the fuck all rid oh Ride, we're both seeface.
Here we go.
NFL week number six and this week, buddy, I celebrated a birthday and as I approached fifty, I'm approaching it. I see I see it on the horizon. It's not there yet. I'm wondering if I should stop the the throwing of the beer. The ship fits after horrible losses like I had in Arizona Tennessee game last week. My houses, my houses are getting much nicer than when I started the beer toss in this shitty apartment many many years ago.
And on top of that, the may doesn't come until Fridays, so the beer mess just sits there for five days until she you know, comes around and starts cleaning up and My story is about how the beer happened in the corner and all that mess. She it's just not landing very well with her anymore.
So.
The moral of the story is, when you get older, stop throwing beer cans across the room after a bad beat. And number two, although it's getting much harder, make sure you hire a maid who does not speak English so she can't question the mystery of the flying fucking beer cans. Now, whether you are here for the funny, it's a question for fun.
I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun.
We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling symphony do to out of your assholes. You are here for the money. Anybody tells your money's the root of all evil.
Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to hear, baby, you have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question?
That is?
What a stupid question? You ask a lot of stupid questions. My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money.
I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it.
I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right, Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's patreon dot com. Slash bet Underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that you can bet football the
right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got the TV's glowing, we got to bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting, how choice of the week.
I still drug.
I feel right do it.
Well? Thank you everyone, sir, sir, it's not I'm drinking a soaking the dishes by Allston Beer Brewing Company in Alexandria, Virginia.
These names of these beers, I swear to good they're just throwing shit. They're throwing beers across the room and wherever the name, wherever the name lands, they'll us throw at it. There's a throat on there.
Well, it is very apropos that I'm drinking this beer tonight, Longhorner, because did you know that on this day in nineteen hundred, Helen Hayes was one, and she was, of course the quote first lady of American theater unquote. She won two Oscars thirty nine years apart. But of course she was best known for her sorry, she was best known for work on Broadway, where she would do the laundry and dishes of the mill actors who actually everybody paid to see.
And of course, although she did get her screen time, she was still just a woman, and the male characters had to remind her that of this, I'm.
A man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn. That's what kind of man I am. You're just a woman with a small brain, with a brain a third the size of us. It's science, it.
Is nine, longhorned. And although she was the first American woman of whatever America theater, nobody fucking knows her. Nobody even outside of this podcast, will ever remember that she existed.
So you know it is what it is.
Cheers to all the men and all the women doing all over along, thank you very much.
As soon as you said first American woman, I zoned out. I kind of I kind of went blurry ahead, and I just was like, when is he gonna start talking about football? And then I think we're almost there, so so cheerous to that.
Please and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages.
Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what do you think is happening right now?
Xcuse me? What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh?
You know what's happening.
It's time for all those wins coming to the ads a knifeber all right, boys and girls, it is time for all those what's coming there to night. However, before we get there, I do have to remind you that we will get you paid on our free pixes. We always do and to get us paid, Oh, it's our sponsored excess telehealth dot com. Look, winter time is coming. I know it's still one thousand degrees in the state
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work again. That is texts to E l E health dot com for all your medical needs, all right, Longhorn. Tell you about some uh maybe some teams that might have some fucking uh medical needs. We're going We're gonna start over in London with those jets and those ten verb broncos are in London, and that line is sitting at Denver minus seven and a half and that's pretty solid, Longhorn. So what are you going on this one?
Yeah, well, the Jets. It's well, it's well documented how much I hate the head coach.
I hate he s looves to put the sounder on the Jets. You know, he loves he loves to do, he loves to do.
Yeah, that's that's a good that's a good disclaimer on being able to say that this week there's is gonna be a lot of favorites that I like, which is unusual. It's not how I usually like to lean and and find find you know, uh picks. But it is what it is, and it's not even a heavy teaser week. So it's just a it's just a weird week for me where I'm not going to have a whole lot of action, to be quite honest with you, and serting not a lot of action with the sounders and the
danger zones and the big dig pick. So it's gonna be a little weak on that. But Jets are in the do not bet, do not touch, do not pass go with Tennessee for me, and I know Tennessee got the we well documented Arizona cover loss bullshit last week. That's I'm going against Tennessee literally the next ten weeks.
I don't care. Like they're a horrible team. And then Jets are the same thing to me, the fact that this is overseas, so you got you got a new coach Sunday somewhere overseas, over there Australia, New England, England, who knows they're over there somewhere, new head coach, who doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't know what he's doing on American soil, So I don't know that he can handle this kind of He can't handle this kind of travel and preparation takes. And Sean Paynton's been in
the league for a very long time. So this is just a massive, massive head coaching mismatch, and in on the field, it's just a massive mismatch from what we've seen so far. As you're now, I do think the Jets are better on paper than what they've shown, but they're on five because they have no head coach. And this is what happens when you do a d IHR dee I in the NFL. Is might as well be d I E. You are, You're dead, You're you're gonna die. You got nothing, so it's not gonna work.
Yeah, they would take you know, pensidents.
Well, that wasn't. That's a great hire they've had. They've had three head coaches in seventy years or whatever it is, So they clearly know what they're doing. That's that's the that that that ain't d I that's that's like they know what they're doing and they made a good pick. But this was a bad one. But now I said, there's not a lot of teasers. You don't ever tease a favorite on the road down. It's not. It doesn't. That's not the wrong strategy, it's not. That's not what
you do. But this isn't a technical road. This is a neutral site. So if you want to play with Denver, teas down and pair them up with with maybe Detroit or there's not a whole lot of candidates this week, so that's a possibility that you could play with, so be it. Yeah, I'm on Denver every which way. I'm fading the Jets all year long until proven differently, same as Tennessee.
Except that you just bet on the Jets.
Plus, yeah, that was that was their last straw. That was my last straw. Well, I mean, how long did it take first to get off the Tennessee thing, Like, I mean took that or at least me, it took a long time. So it's everybody's got a breaking point on teams.
And I never got on Tennessee until I got on them, and then I immediately lost off of them. However, I just have to say, so, okay, so let's look at I'm not totally disagree with the year. So I'm just playing a little bit of devils having good. So in this game, I had Denver minus six, Vegs had minus six and a half. It's sitting at minus seven. Now it's taking money on the Jets side. Now the money
is starting to trickle back in on looks like Denver. However, you're talking about a Bownecks led team that is not really good scoring the ball, laying seven to seven and a half dep anywhere you want to get this. It's still seven halfs available. I don't know so power rankings wise, it's now called buckets. Great, it's the Jets Denver who gets the V two, Just get the D two. The
over runner sitting forty three and a half. I've got this Broncos winning twenty four to twenty one, which slightly over. Now I have it in a special team's grade on this, I'm not gonna go over them just because I want to see how they kind of work out. I did retro grade last week with this new special teams that algorithm I'll come up with. And last week, just for
full transparency, the totals in the BBG with four and four. However, if you added a special teams trading and they went five and three, but that's retroacting, so I can't say that's accurate. We'll track it going forward and we'll kind of see what this looks like. But even with the special teams in, it's twenty five to twenty two, so it's still the over. So I do leand to the over. Now the home team technically is the Jets. It's not the best matchup Frials he loses a half a point.
It's decent matchup for bo Naci gains a half a point. Both running games should be around normal. However, this one trend I did pull. If you're on five and it's week six, since twenty twelve, we've had seventeen games of that long horn seven and ten straight up so losing record. However, ats ten and seven, two point four points ats margin on that, and that's been the line of six and a half. It's about where we're at. So not in an eightst the over which the numbers du suesses go over.
I like the Jets. I like the over. That's the way I would play this one. I don't believe Bonis can beat I don't believe Bonnis can beat fucking Air by fucking seven points. He sucks. And that's the way I would go with that. And again you're I mean, you're looking at the h to five team going to to six that there had at some point there has to be some fight with this team. If not now, then win If I mean again, where if you look at the games Broncos one, they smother people defensively, they
get lucky offensively. Maybe they can do that here because the Jets offensive obviously isn't great and it doesn't great out great again against this team, But are they really gonna go win by eight points Overseas? Spelled Dixon's first turn Overseas too. He's not a mature person at all. That's well documented. I don't know it. It's not I don't have a great feeling for it. But yeah, I'll take the Jets and the fucking over.
Yeah, there's a lot there. Let's just I'll let the comments section take care of a lot of that for me. They'll they'll, they'll get on that.
Let's move on to those Indians, those Indiana Jones's hosting those fighting midgets. They're on the road. I'm told you that's where the midgets come to fight. It's on the road performers. Maybe that's what they do, it's what they do. Let's see where this game is at right now. Preseason, this game was at Arizona minus one and a half. Let's see where I had it. I had it one and half, Vegas at one half, so we're lock step.
We were lockstep. Obviously we were way fucking wrong because this game, let's see where it's at currently, it's at seven and a half. So me and Banks, me and Veanks, we're literally six points off on this game. Does that seem possible? I don't know. I mean, I've been wrong many times in my life. I've been that.
It's definitely the way it's going.
Very very rarely have I been that wrong, though the long more, where do you go.
On this well, this one actually is one that falls into the to the teaser category. Indy at home catching the seven, seven and a half, You can tease them down, I certainly have. But on this one, Kyler is just Yes, this is normally a great Kyler. This is the this is the spot you want Kyler in dog This is this sweet spot for sure. But Kyler's a little bitch. And Kyler might not play this. He might not play
this week. He's gonna bitch out. He's he's You don't like the heat that he's getting from a ball hitting him in the face mask and now he's concussed. He's got a little ankle row issue. He didn't dive on the ball when he when he hit him on the face mask, he just did the Cam Newton stared at it. Didn't even didn't even try. He's just of he is the He's just a bitch. He's not he you give bow Nick someer ship with like Tyler. Kyler has all the talent. He's just a bitch, So you go ahead.
I don't I don't give a lot of love to Lebron James NFL.
Except diminutive, y'all.
Now, Lebron James is like the greatest athlete we've ever seen, and he's fucking won two championships. Whatever, it's kind it's kind of the same.
It's kind of the same now as far as the and another reason, like any is and I'm all over into here every which way. I don't know, I don't even mind laying in the points because yeah, because like if we get Kyler, then we're getting him not one hundred percent. And we know when he's not one hundred percent, he doesn't run the ball. He doesn't he doesn't run the ball when he's not one hundred percent, So like
you're not getting the best of Kler Murray. And like, and so if he's gonna be out there and he does actually fight through and play this game, you're not getting the real Klin Murray. Which that that knocks the value off the seven and seven half that you would normally be a sweet spot for color. But if he doesn't play well, then obviously you're gonna have Jacoby Pressett and I don't you know, I don't really like that. And then and then the final thing is the is
the divided locker room. Okay, we've got obviously we all saw the thing with the code coach and the running back thumbing the ball. People are on both sides of this. People are like, oh, the coach out in the same thing. I'd have been pissed off. I'm tired of these players doing that. And then other people are gonna be like, hey, you shouldn't. You can't. You can never put your hands
on a player, which is complete bullshit. So but just just saying that, I guarantee that some players that are like, oh, you, coach has a little out of bounds. You shouldn't doing that. And it's probably some players like yay, maybe don't fucking fumble the ball in one yard line and costs a goddamn win in the NFL. So you've got to divide a locker room that's not going to fix itself immediately in one week. So yeah, everything points to Indy. I like, I want no part of Arizona and that cancer that
they got going on with them right now. It may fix at a certain point this season if they can pull it out, but no, this week. Give me all Indy, any any way you can get them all right, So.
On the power raise, no goal buckets, no goal V two D two Arizona now I do have this gaded out twenty four twenty Indy. This is with Colin playing. Obviously it's not a great matchup though for Indiana. Jones versus Defense actually would be a half a point better for Kylin Murray if he does play. But it's a flat matchup for Indy's running game. It's minus half a point three Arizona's running game. And that's what's going to great out India as the winner here, not cover seven
and a half. But if Colin doesn't play, who knows, you know, Joe Brissett, maybe they're better, maybe they're worse. I don't fucking know. I mean, like you said, they don't. We didn't. We just talked about this. They don't even use Coller's legs anymore what he does but play calling Loise. They don't like the design runs are way fucking down to what they what they were when he was a younger player. So if jagober Set plays, I mean, are we are we really sure that Jagobra Pressett is a
worse passer than Colin Murray? If you're just talking out of the pocket, Yes, I don't think we are. I don't think we're that.
I don't.
I don't. I don't think it's that big of downgrade.
I'm gonna go with the affirmative on that one.
I'm gonna be off this game completely.
So I'm just playing now if you're saying, if you're saying, do I think that Jacoby Brisset can kind of just hold up? And yeah, that's a that's a different discussion though, Like but as far as like throwing the fucking football, it's not even close between those two.
Yeah, but I'm saying, can you cover seven points to keep?
No, you didn't say that. No, you didn't say that. If you say that, then I agree with you. You might have a bit. You might have a better shot with Jacob because we've seen it for years and years, him coming in and even though he's not God, yeah he's back.
I remember very steeply. It was fucking Rams versus the forty Nins. I had like the under forty nine. Its two years ago. He fucking comes in as sorry.
I about to say, when did he play for either one of those teams?
Arizona comes into the fucking backup. No, it was the Red Sorry, it was the Redskins and the Rams.
Okay, the Residents are.
The doors blown off? I had all have was down under forty nine? He comes in after who was he got hurt? I can't even remember who the fucking quarterback was at that point. And he fucking scores two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and told the trash time, it blows my goddamn under just because he can simply take a snap, perform the offense, hit through his fucking backstep with his third, fifth or seven, and deliver a fucking
football on fucking time. That's what jacobra for said, can absolutely fucking do and right now Calamerray not absolutely fucking doing that again, does it make it better than him? No? To your point, can they cover seven him? Yeah? Probably, I'm not.
Betting on it, but whatever, Well, the coach had to write a check for one hundred thousand dollars this week, so that's uh, that's how one's gonna sting.
Yeah, and that's a great one that you bring up. I didn't touch on it because I don't know. I don't know which way to go on. I really don't.
Well, I don't think the whole locker room knows. Like I think it's gonna be divided and you're gonna have some that are like, man, fuck that fuck that guy. Both ways, it's gonna be like fuck that dude to dropped the ball. And he's a defensive coach, so it's probably offensive guys gonna be like the Mark. They're gonna, you know, defend, Hey, don't touch our guy, and the defense guy's like, hey, man, but yeah, but you fucked us out of a win, like you know you. So
I don't know. It's it's uh not good times over there in arizon I'm glad I bailed off them winning this division. I was trying to pick somebody else beside San Frian and that's that's on the struggle bus right now. With San Francis, seemingly that just they just don't lose, because no matter all the fucking herd players in the world doesn't matter. Just keep fucking winning. But I belt off Arizona win with Seattle and we'll see how that plays out.
Yeah. I was too high on Seattle coming in obviously. I just I had faith that, you know, this coach, he's had a team going and saw the right direction and I thought that caliber would take it at least a step forward.
But I don't like the way he coached, so like take throw all that, like the way he coached that game, and he's not the offensive coordinator. I get it, he's not making the offensive calls.
Yeah, he said that was a bitch as that was about to Oh my god, yeah, bitch ass fucking like, dude, you don't bitch out when you're dominating the whole game. And they did, and they did, and he signs off on that.
You're right, all the momentum went to Tennessee though, So at that point, all the minimums with Tennessee and you you have to get a first down because they're literally they have you can't run, run, run in the middle of the fucking line. That was a horrible like so so now I'm looking at you sideways as the head coach a little bit. So we'll see how that plays out.
You were about that. That was fucking disgusting and I can't believe that he fucking did that. Shit. Let's move one of those Pittsburgh things. Oh coming off though, ye boys and girls hosting those Cleveland Browns. Good lord, they've went to fucking I don't know, Amstam and fucking back and now they have to go all the way to Pittsburgh to play their arrivals who are coming off of I don't know, twelve thirteen days rest. Oh, good lord, almighty. Uh Now this game it was Let's see what did
I have? Well, I have Pittsburgh way fucking lower or at Cleveland way fucking lower than the market. So let's look at where we're at now live looks like five and a half juiced. Let's call it five point seven, somewhere between five and a half and six. Long morning.
What do you like on this? Yeah, you want to get that Pittsburgh before it gets to six everywhere or higher. This is probably going well. Cleveland's defense is good in theory. It's not good on the road. I'll get to that, but in theory, the defense is good enough to where people are gonna want to keep this five and.
A half right now.
Yeah, grab it now.
Where you can get it other than that is six? Where else six and juice the six at Bovada, So that's even six at westit even six at circa to the Sharper books in Vegas. But if the money keeps coming in which it is right now on Pittsburgh, you know which way it's going.
Yeah, So this is like this is the spot of spots, and it's a little troublesome that everybody in the world knows this is the worst spot in the history of spots for Cleveland. Uh So that that gives me that I don't like that when everybody knows something and it's like that isn't even a point anymore. If everyone knows it, is it is it like this? You're not, Yeah, you have got you got no advantage there.
But so the preseason line, just to put it in a contest, like I was way off, but I'll just give the bath Vegas prezeas line was Pittsburgh about six and a half.
Okay, so that's probably where it's gonna settle in at.
I mean, so let's just think about Lohren real quick. Let's just talk around table to this six and a half and now we have the and of course that preseason line tooking into effect the spot and everything else. Yeah, now are we saying at five and a half five point seven, five six? What everyone to say that we've seen half a point of downgrade for Pittsburgh or half a point of upgrade for Cleveland. With a quarterback's backing
his second start, first time playing in Pittsburgh. Is that what we're saying is that we're saying that Cleveland somehow has gotten better in this spot.
No, Cleveland's worst is especially with this new quarterback, the rookie. And how is Pittsburgh not better? They're they're probably gonna win this division, They're I mean.
You know, it's funny. You know it's funny, and this this is insane thing. I looked up these stats three and one. Well, no, I look up these stats elither to day, So to bet to win the division? What would you guess Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Are right now, right now close to even?
Is that not insane to you? Baltimore? Baltimore is one and four and they don't have the starting quarterback and they're not gonna happen this week.
And they're gonna go one and they're gonna go one in five and Steelers are probably gonna be four and one.
So yeah, it's insane. Is that not insane? It is? It is? So what is that telling you in the market? Like, how bo is this Pittsburgh like? For like, I don't know, I don't even know, and I'm just asked the question. I have no answer.
I just think that I think there's too many I think that the the the ratings on Baltimore were so high that there's just too much prior set in to where the market can't adjust enough. And maybe they're not getting enough money. I don't know, because it's just for like two weeks now, or I guess how long has Lamar been out? Two weeks?
Two weeks?
Yeah, well, this will be a second, second or third. No, so he went out during the right, Okay, Yeah, so so for a week and a half, it's been just way undervalued and this will probably be the breaking point and you'll get like just retarded, retarded changing of the of the numbers on you.
So you have your best bet right now, like fuck this game. Fuck betting this game. Your best bet right now would have to be betting Pittsburgh plus one the win division, right, is.
That what it is? Plus one? Ten? Well then yeah, yeah, because it's so.
Fuck this game completely off, Like, don't even bet this game. Just bet Pittsburgh plus ones in the win division.
I mean sure, but I mean I like Pittsburgh in this game too, but like, uh sure, why would you double?
Like I mean, I get where gamblers whatever.
Oh I'm making a pick on every game. It's not not necessarily that I'm gonna put this game out, But like.
In your gambling portfolio, I'm just speaking the kind of elevator turns. Like in your gambling portfolio, you would have to have a Pittsburgh plus once into your portfolio at this point.
Right, I mean unless you think that, and uh, Cincinnati is gonna make.
A there's no chance. That's it. That's the other thing. These have no chance.
They're they're all dead. It's it's basically every team is dead. Like I mean, Baltimore will start winning games after because there they got a buy after this one. They're kind of packing it in and just waiting for the buy. And and if they don't go on like a six game winning streak to eat at least make it interesting towards the end, they can and once they get healthy. But here's the thing, because they weren't even even when
they were healthy to start the year, we saw major issues. Yeah, like, which is kind I mean, how I don't know that. Weird things happen in football. You can have an all star looking type unit on paper, and and just in football, it's so it's just so different. It can be it can just go sideways for for whatever a variety of reasons. And and it's happening this year to Baltimore and yeah, Pittsburgh.
Win the Super Bowl, I can't be more proud.
Well, look, you can't.
You knew, you knew. We've never ever of the show. So did that probably, I.
Think probably when if that happens next year on our preseason pod, I'm probably gonna do it audible. No, I'm just gonna do audible like that until that pot ends. I can change it. Until that pot ends, I can change So if if it comes down to that last seroal pick and you've got let's just say, let's make it realistic and say that we both have the Cowboys. That was a joke. Hope everybody got Hope, everybody got it. If we both got the Cowboys. And now I'm gonna
be like, no, I'm throwing the challenge flag. I'm changing mind to do at you know, X, y Z, so whatever.
But that's fine, you can do that because if we're both in the field, I'm just gonna fade that team for like the first eight weeks.
That's that's another way I attack it too. That's another way I take it, but just to finish this game, Pittsburgh's getting healthy. Talked about the spot rookie quarterback, international flight back on the road, back on the road after an international game against a good defense. That's getting Heistmith back, Joey Porter junior back uh and Tomlin Tomlan who coming off a bye is actually pretty good. So he's he's seven to three off a bye in the first half
of the season. Like, you haven't buy in the first half of the season. This is one of his sweet spots. Weird trade for Cleveland. Cleveland made a weird trade with Jacksonville. Like and they obviously traded flaccoh too, but that not that that one matters, Yeah, but don't care the Flako one that doesn't matter in this game. That don't matter in a different game. But they traded Greg Newsom their cornerback, for Campbell, the cornerback for Jacksonville. Weird on both sides.
I don't I don't really get it either way. And I haven't heard like any inside stories on why exactly and who initiated or because Campbell's Campbell's not playing well, but he has played well in the past. Newsom has always been a kind of decent number two cornerback. I don't know, just weird shit going on. I mean he's had some jag years like Campbell is this year. I don't know. This is weird, just weird. So give me Pittsburgh and in every way including division to win.
All right, So you did throw the tumult after the bi However, I do need to throw this in just so everybody knows, since twenty eighteen, after the buy your home and your favorite, it's the worst spot. Twenty nine and forty two and three, ATS loses about one point. It's forty eight point forty point eight percent on Arizona six point three. That's about where we're gonna land at forty four point nine on the toe, fifty three point four percent to the over the one point over, so
thirty and a half is fucking gross. So not a good trend to back Pittsburgh there. However, you said toumm's that trend beater, so we'll see which way that ends up slipping to make my card either way. Uh, all right, let's move on to those care a lot of panthers bristils. This can all right, This one is interesting as fucked me. So I had this game as pick Vegas has it had at Carolina plus one and a half. It is now Dallas minus three live as we said, So I
was close in Vegas on this one. I don't know, lohe where you go?
Yeah, on this one, I was kind of like, much like the New York Jets Dallas Cowboys matchup last week, I was I like Carolina, especially at the three and a half. It's at three now, so it's you kind of lost somebody there. It's kind of struggling back and forth, which which one do I like on this one? And I finally land on I don't. I'm not taking either ones. I'm just gonna take the over because we've saw last week. Even if Dallas plays okay defense for a while, they're
not a good defense. The Jets rolled up. You know, those are like almost twenty second half points on them, and Carolina they're not a good defense. So and we know Dak destroys bad teams. He's sixty five percent ats against bad teams in his career. It's just what he does. So he did last week to the Jets. That was my fear last week. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna bum my head against that wall again this week. And then on top of that, the Cowboys can't stop the run.
So we've got Chuba Hubbard probably coming back this week. We got Rego Dawdle, you know, kind of his uh his payback for the castile. So Caroline's gonna score, Cowboys are gonna score. I'm not fucking around with with his number anymore in this game. And just give me the over. I think it's around forty nine fifty, you know, right right there in that in that sweet spot, so you know it. Just I'm not I'm not trying to get too cute here. Just give me the over.
All, right, So I've got this one power range is ready, Carolina buckets Carolina to no call dto Carolina. I've got it. Cowboys winning twenty, which be to the undup. And if you factor in my new uh SO, team's great. It's twenty four to twenty, which is to the under. Salon is gonna lose one is over bet, so don't follow him on that. Now. This is literally we say this every week. So one of the best grades, the fucking Briscoe is gonna have it. You can't step with the
BVG through the shitty fucking aboys defense. But here's the thing, girls, Dad actually loses half a point this Carolina saying there is getting better, it's getting better. Not staying it's good, but it's getting better. It's getting it's getting better. Now, Carolina's flat through the running game. Dallas actually does gain a point though through the running game there, so that should help them. That's what should carry them to the win. Here, it's a no call for me on the line. I'm
like along over that. I don't care anything about the line, you know, It's it's one of those things that it might end up making my card at three, just depending on how the rest of the data flows in. However, Well, all the money's coming out Carolina. You know, the market's coming on Carolina. It's I don't know, but I would lean Carolina and the under here. I would not take the over. He's dead wrong about that. He's gonna lose. He's gonna lose, and you should take the under and lean Carolina.
M M all right.
Moving on to those my Hammer dogs hosting those Sandyaco super charges, and they are currently let's see four point home dogs now. Preseason, I had this the charges of minus two and Vegas said it one and a half, so close with no cigar, we're sitting for a little bit worse. What's I mean? I think, Longhorn, that's a fair downgrade on Miami so far. And I was hired on Miami murdered for the most part, so that tells me that this number is pretty fair. Here, what do you got on this?
What's a sitting at right now?
Four?
Four? Yeah, this one, This one just feels like a Miami spot that I'm gonna probably reluctantly have to be on in some form of fashion, but on you know, on paper, on paper, this should be a nice little spot for the Charters. You know, bad pass rush for Miami, which is weird because they have good pass rushers, horrible secondary for Miami, which we knew going in, so it's a bad setup. Charters should be able to take advantage of that.
But they broken, Like are they are? Like? Are they broken?
The Charters are? Their offense is going to be broken if they're running out second and third string offensive lineman and.
Use like literally use all receivers off his love like every excuse you ever, like it's always excuses for her. At some point, can the dude just like be the dude, can be the dude?
I don't know, and mahomes be the dude. He's two and four? Can he be the dude with without without one straight championship? Okay, but my point being, you have to have players. When he had players, he was three and oh. I'm not making excuses I'm making I'm giving reasons why they're losing games now because they don't have their players. I mean, what do you mean, tell you they got they got? I mean they should win this game. They I mean, and you know they're favored, so they
clearly they should. If they don't, it's because they're not gonna be able to score. And Herbert's not good in one score games historically, is not what he does. So if this, if this is gonna be a one score game and he's gonna like, it's just I don't. I don't see this own. Well, I'm gonna have to take the four points. I would prefer the four and a half, but that's kind of gone everywhere, so I don't. I mean,
cross country, you're going cross country and the heat. I mean, I know they're I know they're from California, so maybe it won't be too bad. But that's and is this a.
Miami is a lot different?
Yeah, and it's a it's a noon kickoff. So they we saw the Chargers go to the Giants. That was a noon kickoff game. Uh. They they didn't look they didn't look great. Uh they won that. Yeah, they won that game, but it wasn't pretty.
They lost.
Do they lose that one? Okay? Yeah, so okay, yeah, I've got to reluctantly take by the way.
So like literally this money is crashing down, crashing.
But I don't feel good about Miami either, because they are just not And you know, if if the Chargers, if the Chargers are gonna win, it's gonna be a discussing seventeen to thirteen win, it's gonna be low scoring. Miami sucks on offense right now, they got their their weapons are just fading fast and to it, we know that he's limited. Also, I mean it's the same sort with any of these quarterbacks that aren't the all time grace. They're gonna be limited unless everything is kind of the
way it's supposed to be around them. And and it's not right now for Miami, and it's not right now for the Chargers. So low scoring. Give in a low scoring game, always lean to the points, you know. That's that's what the side I'm gonna be on, all right.
So powerings are on the charters bucket. No call B two, no call D two, no call forty three and a half percent a hundred. It's a long worm's point, disgusting, ugly game. The BBG has its great out twenty two to twenty LAC so all a lot of numbers agree with him. Home quarterback matchup, it's not. It's a terrible matchup for two. He loses a point and a half of the BBG to this. I believe LC defense. It's a flat matchup for herbs. It's a flat matchup for
both running games. There's no advantage there. Look, if you're gonna tell me that herbs will be just herbs and two is gonna suck and they're both gonna run the ball at the cliff that normally run the ball, I'll take the under. I'll take Miami and are disgusting, Like you said, just gross, just sweaty fucking win that I probably won't end up betting. But iree with you.
I mean this game should be like a thirty eight and a half thirty nine and a half over Runner, not forty three and a half. That's that's I don't I don't know where they get the points.
But it's the potential, it's the it's it's the implication.
It's the implication implication of the points that won't happen.
It's the implication. All right, let's be won those Baltimore Ravens.
Good God almighty, did I even do it right up?
No?
I didn't even do it right up? So this will be quick.
All right?
There was those Los Angeles Rams. I won't go even go over the priests numbers. They don't fucking matter. Yeah, because there is a Lamar, So no Lamart.
There's like no fucking eighteen players on this team. What do you mean including Lamar?
Yes, well Hamilton should be back if that does anything for you. But what doesn't do anything for you is exactly what I just I literally said this last week the podcast, And I've kicked myself on the ball so hard for not betting Houston when I said on the podcast, they've built this offense around one dude that is the most mobile, most athletic, most dynamic player we have ever seen in the NFL, and now you stick this fucking ginger pie's the ship Cooper Rush in there, and you
expected to even come close to expectation. And I said that out loud, and yet I didn't bet Houston minus two because I'm retarded. So I'll just set it up again just like that and say, okay, will you trust the Los Angeles Rams lay seven and a half points on the road versus give the get Hamilton back? Fantastic, fantastic, But there's still no war. We're stuck with this ginger piece of shit. Cooper Rush, Longhorn, what do you got?
I mean, yeah, no, right up on this one. It's just I don't even recognize as Baltimore team. I barely recognize them when they were all healthy. So it's it's take the Rams any which way you can get them. You don't tease down road favorites, but you know, if you're if you're into non wongs, then maybe maybe you do that here. Maybe do just a money line, parlay on on the the Rams and plug them into like a five team or whatever, because those is so many
favorites this week. I don't think I have any shot of losing. This is one of them. It's just by the way, Baltimore's got a bye next week, so they're literally just just just get us to the by, let's get some players back and try to make a second half kind of run at the division, because that's their only their only shot now is not even the division that you know, even they can just scrap out a wild card. That's their only hope in the second half. So yeah, it's it's a it's all and and the
chart and asserts me. The Rams are coming off a loss, a bad loss one and they should have they should have could have won. So they're coming in looking to get that redemption win and that that they.
Should have could have won. My ass, they got the ass whipped, that's what they got.
Yeah, when they fumbled on the one yard line with with no time left, they fumbled on the one with with almost no time left, they would have won the game.
No, they had the ball on overtime, before overtime, they founded on the one on the one and would have won the game. So yeah, before it got to overtime.
I mean San Francs still have plenty of time.
No they didn't, but go ahead they did not?
Yeah, they did, Okay, So on this one. You've got a home dog before by which is the very best fot fifty nine point six percent ats twenty eight nineteen and two average out of four point three. Now again for all those with their starring quarterbacks, none of those story course, I don't fucking know. It's is twenty eighteen. Who fucking knows. But here is where the first part of the numbers gig back the week comes in. Yeah, it's coming. I promise this coun no fucking nerd with
your nerd half there it is all right. So so if you are going on the ball and a home dog between seven and ten, I don't know all the records or whatever, but what I do know is on an Amazona seven point six, which does exactly whe we're sitting at. If you tease that up six points, you're five and one. That's eighty three point three percent we're doing with six and a half point teaser we're doing to the fourteen. We're gonna fucking make it happen. Boys goes.
That's one half of the numbers. Get pick of the week, like Baltimore is too proud of a team to fucking get blown out two weeks in a row. They're fucking home. I don't fucking with Cooper Rush Rams fucking they like to play with their food and they suck on the road. There's there's gotta be some hard ball fucking you know, they've got to stand there ground right here. They win in this game, probably not to my buddy's point. If you still have the Rams alive and you're survivor contest,
it's not that's not the pick this week. I'll give you the pick later this week. That should be your pick. But you know, if that's where you're at, if that's where you're down to, it's not a bad pick. However, Baltimore losing by more than fourteen I don't like that. I started fourteen and a half if you go six six and a half, So I like Baltimore plus the fourteen and a half here on the non long Teasa. All right, let's move on to those Tampa pub baks. Oh,
this is one of the games of the fucking week. Hustle, San Francisco, pull it in nips all right. Preseason on this I had Tampa my or sorry plus one and Vegas Tampa minus one half, So Bays beat me on this. Tampa is sitting at plus three currently. I believe at this game so long, Homer, do you got on this?
Yeah, on this one. You know, I'm gonna end up being on San Francisco plus the three. It just it feels like Tampa Bay is playing with fire too much. They live in these close games laying three again, you know, I mean, just how many times? How many times can you can you win one possession games coming down to the very end. And even if it comes down to the very end and Tampa Bay can still this game, it still has to be by three or more for you to cover. So you know, I know Mac Jones
is starting at this point. I don't really particularly care, you know, whichever one is the healthiest, whichever one is the healthiest, just throw them out there. We don't know about the wide receivers playing yet, at least I haven't heard, hopefully Pierson.
I don't thinking.
Yeah. So look, I don't like the fact that San Francisco pulled the rabbit out of their hat last week and got that win. But Tama Baseman doing a whole lot.
Of that completely dominated a game you gotta win.
I don't know, Yeah, Tama Baseman doing that all year long, so I mean they're.
Completely dominated games. They played rabbit hats, that's for sure.
Yeah, So well, how do you completely dominate a game when you jump up fourteen?
Yeah, you had forty minutes of possession. You had fucking uh you had Let's see what the rest of it is. I'm looking through your Yeah, more penalt up rams. That did have two turnovers, So.
That's that's not that's those are random.
Yeah, I mean, look, the four nine has controlled that game the whole game in the rams, never chance, like I was on the rams. So I'm bemoaning my own loss or at your greatymnon loss. That's fun. I was on the rams. You were on the rams. But they didn't deserve They certainly didn't deserve to and they didn't.
And it was under a minute. I looked it up. It was under a minute when he fumbled the ball, so technically still alive.
But you know, they still had a chance to win it in overtime.
I'm not I'm not talking about overtime. I someing before that. So that's that's fine. Yeah, in this game, it's just I don't know, I don't know that Tampa Bay hasn't proved that they can win with margin. I love them, They're they're a super Bowl pick to go to the super Bowl in the NFC. But you know, the the moxy of this San Francisco team, it's hard to ignore. And you're getting three points, you're getting some players back.
We'll see how many, but they are getting some back, and I don't know, man, just this it feels this just feels too trappy, Like I mean, it feels like, hey, I mean, you're getting Tampa. They're they're four and one. They but they've they've you know, they they should be the better team at home. But I don't like it. I think the values on San fran here, give me the three. You know, is it juice either way? Is this number gonna move? Is this gonna be just locked in at three all the way to Sunday?
No, it's going on to three. So you didn't get the three now?
Yeah, So get the three now and and you know what, two and a half you can I would probably feel much better at two. There's a lot. There's a lot of games to land on two, a lot more land on two than than previously with with the with the two point con versions of the missed extra points and all the bullshit that happened. So you know, once again, if it gets down to two, you can talk me into some Tampa Bay. But about at three, I gotta go San fran.
All right. So I know it's like we've been disagreeing a lot on this podcast, Espe. Actually we've been agreeing, but just aggressively. Uh powery grave for me on the snow called bucket, San Francisco beat San Francisco, Sy Francisco. I've got San Francisco winning this game twenty five to twenty two, so that will be had. No call on the overrunner. It's forty seven and a half. Now, the Special Team's great does have a great hunder. Sorry, I'm gonna stop mentioning that because I don't want to. I
don't want to see miscontrued things. And this is my first week pulling this in. So overall, twenty five to twenty two, no call on the Overrunner. Forty seven and a half. Now, this is a very bad matchup for Baker. He loses two points through the BPG for our friends what's the go Right's name?
Mac Jones, Mac Jones, he is half.
A point, so not a great matchup with him. It's also not a great matchup for the running and they both lose half a point. So again that Bore leans to the hunder. But again I've got a granted as a no call. Here's my ride up on this. I did a little bit of deep devil this because I was very interested in this game, just because I do have Tampa Bay going to the NFC Championship as well.
And I was like, okay, but I went back through my preseas righteous and I said, they have a good chance of being two and four right through the first six weeks and then going on a fucking run and winning this division, the shitty division, and ending up in the NFC Championshi games. It's like, okay, how are they so far above my expectations through the roughest part of
their schedule. So I did a deep though. Tampa Bay is seventeenth in DVOA, they're twenty second and offensive success rate twenty second in defensive successory, So translation, they're a slightly bloy average see by the advanced patricks. Now, they've gotten very lucky. They won a lot of games with the buzzer. Actually every game they won has been at
the buzzer. But how long can that continue. San Fran on the COMPARI side, is fifth in offensive success rate even without their fucking quarterback for most of the season. Now they're twenty fourth and defensive success right, so that's not good fifteenth and DVA overall. So basically, overall, you got an above average team that has dealt with a significant amount of injuries themselves as well, just like has Tampa Bay. So but in fairness to both teams, they
have played a very difficult schedule. Tampa Bay fifth hardest so far per DVA. San Francisco, who was supposed to have the easiest fucking schedule in history of the world, has had the seventh hardest so far through DVA. So all in all, we have a comparable schedule of opponents, and San Francisco is better in the analytics overall with two different fucking quarterbacks, and now we're getting three points like that means the line is off enough here to
get us on San Fran. I expect this to be a good game, come down to the end, and maybe for once it doesn't work out for Baker and the boys. I'm with you, Sam Fran. There's no other way I'm gonna play it. It's gonna be Sam fran or fucking nothing for me. I look, I fear for our Tampa Bay pick just because this team has not been very good so far. But again, they've played a very as we as we predicted in the preseason, they played a very, very tough schedule. What we didn't predict was they were
gonna win every goddamn Quinn flip. So does that carry them through all the way to the end of the season, They obviously can. We've seen that many many times. We saw it with Minnesota last year they were fourteen whatever fucking three. They've been every fucking coin flip and then they get beat out as soon as they fucking face a real team. I don't think that happens with Baker, so I think we're still alive with our overall pick. However, we've gotten very fortunate.
With They've dealt with massive venders in there four and one, like they're gonna get s fran So a San France.
I know, and they've gotten very but they're not a good football team. They're not a good football.
Team because they're not a good football team on paper or on on the metrics. But that's because of what they're dealing with but when it comes to winning the football game, they're still winning despite not be not yeah so so, Like I mean, remember.
We're aggressively arguing at the same point.
I know the same but the point of football is winning the game. And you cannot look good necessarily on paper at certain times and because you're dealing with injuries and but but.
Eventually those metrics we've seen, they do catch up to you, and they like Preacher preach last year. I mean, I pretty appreciate preach every year when you get to the playoff time, these faux ass fucking playoff teams like they're not any good. They suck all year, they suck at all these measures. They're gonna fucking lose. Sure enough, they go and get their doors blown off. For now, I'm not saying this about Tampa Bay specifically, I'm just saying in general, yeah, but everybody.
But that's like picking who you're gonna pick to win the Super Bowl. This is just picking like are they going to be good the rest of the year? And I mean, I don't see how anybody could think they're not gonna be good the rest of the year, because they're gonna get healthier and they're already winning.
Yeah, but I mean they gotta continue, like they gotta get healthier or continue to get lucky. One of the two, like one of those two things has to fuck.
Yeah.
So but but but they if they want to be in a serious content, if they want to get to where you and I both judge them to be, they've got to get better because they're they're not a good football team right now, so they have to get better as they get healthier, or else they're wanted done in the playoffs.
All right, all right, let's move on to.
Believe, including me, he's saying that.
He's saying he likes to Jacksonville Jaguars. You couldn't hear any of that because his microphone is can now, but he likes Jacksonville.
Yeah no, none of you, none of you gave my Jacksonville Jay Wards a chance, including myself. That's not that's not relevant right now. But you know what, they're awesome, So everybody can suck it, including me. But right now they're hosting those Seattle's Theehawks. Okay, on this long run, I had Seattle minus one. Vegas had Seattle plus one and a half. So this game world opener was Seattle minus one. It is now Jacksonville minus one half. So Vegas beat me from the world opener to the fucking
actual marketplace. What are you on this one?
Yeah? On this one? So always has been a major upgrade with Jacksonville from from what we've seen this year. You just can't ignore what's happened. And I've talked about for at least one podcast now that I don't think we've seen the ceiling for this Jacksonville Jaguars team is the root just because t l is is and the receivers, they're not playing as good as at least most people think that they will. We've seen Brian Thomas be much better.
We've even we've even seen Trevor Lawrence be much better than he is right now. As far as Travis Hunter goes, and.
Sir, did you see the double fall down? Like what better play? What do you want to do? He failed down twice and scored the touchdown? Like I mean you know, I mean he literally gave them every chance in the world. Is like, can you stab me? No? We fall out again? He's still something No, Oh, well, I guess I gonna score Like he's literally like he's just toying with people. He's toying with people.
He's uh, he's not way no, he's not.
Bullelong worn shout out to my bollylong worn. Fucking if you, If you boys and girls are not watching the Sunday.
Morning Sunday Morning Parlor Parlay.
You fucking need to be because this dude he put out the Redskins and the Jaguars with that paid six and a half.
To one, five and a half to one, five and a half to one. Money line parlay is.
Free motherfucking money on YouTube. He didn't charge you. He didn't say, hey, signer for my fucking premium picks now. He gave it out for fucking free, five and a half to one on your fucking money. So shame on you if you're not watching, Shame on you if you're not listening.
I just thought about it flash forward. I don't know how it's gonna be tough finding some dogs this week, but I'll i'll, I'll throw something out and maybe half Union or something. I don't because I don't like this week for the dogs. But with that said, Jacksonville, I'm reluctantly going back to them, and I only say reluctantly because I have priors on Seattle that I like them so much. But but much like some of these other teams, this ain't. This ain't the Seattle team that was lining
up to play football in Week one. They're dealing with massive injuries, specifically on the defensive side. We'll see if Julian Love can come back. We'll see if Devin Witherspoon can come back. I haven't heard for sure on that. I don't know which way that's leaning right now. But without those two their best players and their secondary, like I mean, I'm gonna have to I have to still lean on Jacksonville here. To just win a game at home feels so wrong. I don't even like that I'm
saying it. But I like Seattle going across the country Jackson I mean, jackson Will coming off there like that, a primetime win like that, that is so like, give me the other team. But I just and maybe I'll regret this when we do the money recap. That's probably probably what I'll be saying, because like, why do I like Jacksonville here? Like this should be a spot for Seattle,
but I just don't. I just don't trust that defense until they get healthy and their running game of defense is the glue to what's gonna make this Seattle team go.
So I don't know, I just had to pick them, you know, I guess give me give me Jacksonville at home, because again, like I don't I seriously we have not seen like, oh my god, great game from t L, Like if that happens and he just starts lighting people up in you know, in his own way and this and with two amazing defensive players out in the secondary for Seattle, in theory, this should be a game where he can do it because they've got they you know, the running game is good with et N. They they
got some good things going and the defense has just been awesome taking the ball away. So I don't know, maybe I'm stepping into it a little bit and I'm just not seeing it clearly on this game, but I'm kind of leaning to Jacksonville.
I've never been well, I've been more frustrated, but I was very frustrated I against City three Javille, and I gave up the full handicap and PA said, oh, they suck against the run, but they're awesome against this one concept. And but ETN doesn't get to run. This one concept's supposed to runs Jacksonville's never won, blah blah, blah blah, And guess what happened. They didn't fucking get the one concept. They didn't fucking get the one fucking run. They never
fucking got exactly what I said. I said, Mahomes should be mahomes. It should be good. The kan'ta says the fourteen to fucking nothing, and then all of a sudden everything went to fucking hell. And I don't know it's I was so fucking frustrated, but it's such a proper handicap to take a loss on. That's one. That's one of those. But it's one of those things that it's maddening but also keeps you doing this because it's so like this thing is so much more art than science.
And even though you have all the science. I said, ETN is not getting the supposed to run. Didn't said mahomes is gonna be mahomes. He will us said the fuck It wasn't gonna be a great game for Trevor Lawrence.
It wasn't.
And I still fucking lose, like I still fucking lose.
Like it's so maddening and the most maddening thing to me, Longhorn, about this whole thing, as you and I had many discussions preseason on the podcast and off the podcast, because we were just so perplexed by all the sharp money that came in on fucking Jacksonville and their over wind told them that pushed up a full win from where it opened, and we were like, what the fun We've said, We said it on air, we said to each other, we said it in our sleep, probably like what the fuck?
What are it?
What is anybody looking at that makes you think that this Jacksonville team is gonna go win eight fucking games, which is where our predict him to win. But it only did that because that's what the marker was saying. But I didn't. But I didn't bet the under, which is what my number center should have fucking did, but I didn't do it. And now here we are, they're sitting here at what fucking for four and fucking.
Four and one for one as also.
Okay, So here's where I'm at with this game, though, Power Ragan Seattle bucket, Seattle B two, Seattle B two, Seattle forty six and a half is setting the under. I've got Seattle wins game twenty four to twenty one. That's the under. I won't mention the special teams again. Sorry, this is not gonna be a good game for Trevor Lawrence. He struggles through the BBG for the system. This should be a very good game for Sammy d gains a point.
Both running games s great out flat here. So basically, if you can stroll the running game for Jacksonville, you should win. I said that last week. Now it didn't work out for me obviously, However, I think the love like the look aheadline on this before Jacksonville beat Kansas City was Seattle minus one and a half, which is exactly what I had preseason. It literally flips on that win to Jacksonville minus one half. Now, can you tell me that that win was worth three points in the market.
I don't think so. I don't think so. I think Seattle's aside here. I think you're right that you're you're your spotty senses of stepping in it, right. I think it's Seattle's a sign. I think this is I think that Seattle goes and gets this win. Look, Jacksonville, Look, Jacksonville is not this longhorn. You can correct me if I'm wrong. Yes, you we talked about this thing. You
talked about the roster. It's trash and the only the only we said, the only saving grace could be is if this coach can make Trevor Lawrence look like fucking Baker. Has he made them look like Baker? No felled out twice to fucking running a touchdown?
That's but that's why, that's why I don't know that I may. I mean, I think there could be better than what even Vegas thought they would be, because we all thought they were gonna be Like, No, they're better than what we thought would be. But Vegas had them a little bit better than what we thought. But the but the factor that I can guarantee you that Vegas was was counting on was Lawrence being being raised up to play to the level that he hasn't. That's my point.
That's if it starts, if it happens, though, if it.
Clicks in, isn't gonna happen versus the Seattle defense. I mean, my number is gonna have a bad game.
Which Seattle defense the one that's good when they're healthy, or the one that gets let up on their mind?
I mean my mind ratings are like they got priors in there, of course, but they also have week by week built into what they've been doing, and they still haven't greayed out not good versus even so, I don't know. I can't, I can't, I can't. Fucking I won't have it.
I won't have any action on this game, So it's only I.
Probably will I probably will have Seattle maybe on the money line. I just can't get I cannot get past my priors this much to think that I was laying one and a half and the look ahead was one and a half and now I'm fucking getting one and a half. Like we went three points. We went three points on one win, which Jacksonville very much got lucky to do. I mean, fucking Patrick Mahomess is a ninety nine yard pick six, Like, I mean, they got so fucking.
Lucky to win that game and they leave the league in turnover. So yeah, there's definitely a lot of luck in that.
There's a lot of luck. There's a lot of luck. So but but we've also seen that continue throughout an entire season, right and then we've seen it. Yeah, it won't miss to turn this year. Now next year, they're fucked, of course, and the pedicular theorem will say that they're definitely fucked next year. But will it turn this year, will turn this week? That's hard to predict. You can't say, But I mean handicapping wise numbers wise, there's no chance I cannot be on the seem there's no chance.
All right, let's lost banks.
Ranks hosting those ten seeds titles, all right? Preseason on this one, I had the Raiders minus four. Uh Vegas had a minus three. We're sitting at minus four, So I know that one. So that would say Longhorn, that these teams are exactly what I thought they would be the preseason. So what are you on this?
Yeah, like I said last week, do you think I'm changing after a stupid, bullshit, worst fucking bad beat of all time? No, same thing with Tennessee. That coach sucks. He made a million mistakes in that game. I can't even believe that he celebrated that win like I'd have felt like such a fraud. But yeah, same thing. You can't bet on Tennessee. He is awful. This is the one of the biggest coaching mismatches. We talked about that earlier in the game earlier, this this on this slate.
This is another one, and it's a really good coaching Pete Carroll that's desperate, desperate, desperate for a win. They're not as bad as their record. They're won in four. They're just not that bad. Ginos fucked them. He's fucked Pete Carroll, really really bad. But the whole team sucks for Tennessee like that. I shouldn't even say that because the rosters actually better than their outcome. But the but the quarterbacks are rookie, and the and the coach is incompetent.
He's not bad, He's not just bad. He's incompetent. He should not be a head coach.
I actually do have a clip of Geno Smith talking to I'm sorry, Peachure of talking to Geno Smith, uh after the last game.
Hang, yes, I need bitch, I need for you to do your fucking job.
That's exactly what he said, Jensen, do your fucking jump.
Yeah. And if he does his job and just plays normal, just plays normal, they get the running and going, they're gonna win this game by fourteen points plus. I would even look into an ault line on this, like this is going to be this would be. This is gonna be an ass whipping, ass fucking whipping. I'm all over the Vegas Raiders here.
I love it. Powering bass now calling the buckets, now calling me too, Tennessee D two. Uh so, forty one and a half to the under, I've got this. I got Las Vegas win. This is twenty four to sixteen.
You said forty one to nothing. Is that what you said?
Forty one and a half is the under?
I think you said forty one to nothing Vegas. That's what I heard, twenty.
Four to sixteen Vegas. That would cover and that would go under. I like Vegas, like the under. It's a flat matchup for both with both quarterbacks. But fucking cam Warre and Rays that's so fucking bad. It's a flat matchup for both running games. There is no really specific advengeance in this game. It's just one team that's better than the other, and they're better than four points. It's it's a market down grade in Vegas one percent and
a little bit of marketing upgrade off Tennessee. Like you said, getting a fucking miracle win. That will like, we won't see a win like that again until at least this week. In this fucking rigged ass league until somebody else needs their fucking until Baltimore beats the Rams for everybody's fucking survivor, we won't see another brig Gas win like that. But yeah, it's fucking Raiders. Another one here, guys, we wells Green Bay Packets all they're coming off the boy hosting those
sen Sinnati Bengals. I will not go over the preseason lines here because that obviously doesn't matter, and we have a new quarterback. Boys and girls, it is Joe motherfucking Flacco.
They're actually doing it.
They're actually doing it. They traded for him, they're starting him.
You're doing it.
This is fourteen points to fourteen and a half points, fourteen points juice, let's call it fourteen point two five whatever. It's the Packers coming off the Bay versus Legles. We got a long one.
Well, I mean, I'm not in the business of laying fourteen points, fourteen plus points whatever it's gonna be. But I mean, how do you what are we doing? We're Cincinnati? What you are the I mean, there's a lot bad I just I love them because they're just so easily predictable that they're just awful, like you are just an
awful franchise. First of all, Joe Burrow held this team together because he can move, and he can create, and he can fix your shitty fucking techmobile built offense of just get all the best receivers and a good quarterback and who cares what else you have. Flaco's a statue that ain't gonna work here. It is not And Browning Brownie is not good either. He can also move around a little bit and create. He can at least move around and create. Flacco is going to and you're probably
gonna see Browning by in this game. You're probably gonna see Brian. So maybe you get a backdoor cover because Brian's gonna come in and start slinging it and move around making play, gonna come in and when they're down thirty to three, Like this is just gonna be awful. I just I don't know what again? We got the we got the is this the yeah? The weird trade situation, not not the flack of one but the other one with with oh god, who's the am I getting mixed up on my trays here?
Yeah?
They trade? Okay? Sorry, So this one is just the flak of one. But regardless, if this is a mess green Bay coming off a bye, didn't they lose? Did they lose the last game they played?
Lost?
Yeah, exactly, so, so I mean, just oh sorry, they kissed their sister and got a tie on that one and that and actually that's that's so they're on a loss tie trend. So they want to win. They have had, they have a celebrated winning three weeks, and they got this this chum coming into town. Like I mean, this is like Penry ears back. Go get this forty year old statue that won't move of good luck, good luck Cincinnati.
But I will say this rare opportunity that a quarterback gets to play the same team twice in the first six weeks. Flaco played this team earlier for Cleveland, now he plays them again. I'm here with Cincinnati, so it's we're we're in We're in upside down world here in the NFL in Week six.
I guess, all right, so this is the second half of the dud. No long fucking whatever the nerd wow.
Sign Nerd, get out go. I ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless chime man is gone, all.
Right, So home favorites coming off the bar since twenty eighteen twenty nine forty two and three ats minus one point community communitatily forty percent of the line of six and a half. I did pull the numbers. If you were favorite of fourteen or I think it was ten to fourteen whatever, the teasers on that were at eighty seven percent, So we got eighty seve percent plus eighty three percent. All that abeles out to like sixty nine
percent fucking winning. That is gonna close out on a six and a half point fortune and a half to twenty one on the Bengals. So we got the Raider or the Ravens plus fourteen since he fourteen and a half since he plus twenty one, and that is gonna include our do No Wong teaser the week again, the do Wongs teasers. You know, you gotta win, like you know, fifty six percent even win, I'm giving you at sixty eight percent, sixty nine percent. Guaranteed money, baby, just guarantee money.
Just do it all right, Moving on to those new all in saintsan, I am very interested to see Lorn's handicap on this versus those New England Patriots. All right, preseason. On this I had New England minus one. Vegas had New England minus three. It is sitting at let's see this fucking game, mate, Sorry for freshman screen. Here in New Orleans, we're sitting at three and a half. So Vegas vive me on this one. I was a little
bit down to the Patriots, no doubts. It is juice at three and a half, though, So let's go it three point two five long WM, what do you on this one?
Yeah, I'm definitely definitely on New Orleans in this game. Well, at least I put it out to clients. I'll go ahead and announce that I put this on the clients because the line is move is down to three? Was it three and a half?
Still playing three half?
Yeah, so grab grab me if you can. People want look, it's it's the age old story. And I know New Orleans is coming off a win two, so you can use that against me. But they know they're not they know they're not a good or great team. They know they're not really going anywhere this year. So getting a win it's, you know whatever, it's not gonna make or break their years very much, not very much needs a butt. Here's the deal. New England has aspirations they were preseason
darlings to kind of make that run to the playoffs. Yeah, and they're looking like they might make it. But it's all they gotta do is go to New Orkans. All they gotta do is go to New Orleans and win a game against the shitty New Orleans Saints that I was gonna put up a fight like they do against everybody. So at three and a half, I like them. Like I said, New England coming off that that primetime win against their rival Buffalo is a perfect letdown spar for
them and the New Orleans offensive line. It doesn't look as good as I was hoping. But I will say this, it's trending up. For the numbers they had at the beginning of the year on p f F rankings horrible, horrible, horrible, it's subtly getting better actually to where three or four of them are in kind of like that that mid range of acceptable starter level, way better than what they were previously this year, and certainly what they're better than
what they were last year. So and then, and the defense for New Ons is looking really good, you know, relatively good as they can look with with a team that's won one game so far. So I just like the lead. I just like the leadown spot. You know, Drake May Drake May is is he's played his ass off this year, but this is this is a road game, and.
I'm trying to tell you that it was better than what said last.
Year Drake May. Yeah, yeah, I liked him too coming out before. I was like, no, well we said the same thing that he was, that he showed lot of moxy and and and won some games, and that he looked better than he should. So it's but I don't know, it's this is a neurorons spot to me. I mean, they could get their doors blown sure, and if they do, then then New Orleans and then New England's definitely on their way to blow past that eight and a half.
They just are like, if they come out here and just blow the doors off off a bad team on the road, then they're actually really good. Not really good, They're they're a good team.
This game predicalar to win. And I still protected under eight and half.
Like, okay, I said, I said blow their doors off. Well I bet you didn't have them foreign too. If you were picking the under eight and half Buffalo exactly. So like a good team off a great win like that against Buffalo Drags ass next week that they played down and and so we'll see, we'll see kind of And I'm I'm good team, so that's what I'm saying. Yeah, so we agree. I think the Saints are going to be live dogs here and and and one to three
and a half. And and I wouldn't break my heart if the Saints win because because the under, the under five and a half of the Saints, I think is still looking really solid. Yeah, so so we I mean, yeah, we could. We could take a Saints win here for sure.
We need a Saints win for sure. All right, Now, the powery is not New England here, like I said, because I had this about two points different. But the buckets New England B two New England or sorry buckets New Orleans B two New Orleans D two New Orleans. The BBG has New Orleans winning this game, winning this game twenty four to twenty two, which would be no coal on the over runner because it's forty five and a half, so it's right on the front on the number. Now,
I do expect both quarterbacks to play decently here. They both gain half a point of the BBG. The problem here's what bothers me though, as the New Orleans loses half a point of the BBG and New England gains a point the BBG on the running game, I don't like that. Now. I'll say this with I'll just put this in. I don't want to put this in with the owner, but for the special teams part of it, it does have New England winning twenty three to twenty. So with three and a half, we're still good with
New Orleans. The New Orleans has been horrific, fucking horrific with their special teams, and New England's been pretty solid. But either way, I like New Orleans to cover this game. If the buckets say the same, I will be on the Saints. I will be with you one. I would not bet New England. I'm not laying three and a half fucking points with Drake May on the fucking road against fucking error and go fuck yourself. I'm not doing it.
So and I know the saying. I just fucking said the Saints could literally go oh to seventeen and they literally put them so now they're not gonna obviously, because they won a game. But there's nothing say that they couldn't have and there's nothing say that they can't beat the fucking Patriots, who this is not a win that I had the Patriots fucking having. So it was this is one of those fifty bitty coin flip games where you have to split the binomial and give them both
fifty percent and then projected out from there. And that's literally what I did on both these teams. Now, the Buffalo fucking win for Nework. For the Buffalo, the win against Buffalo and Buffalo is the only thing fucking mean right now on our New England under because that is one not a game that I did not project them to win. Everything else that they've done this season, we're coin flipment. I had them losing to Las Vegas Week one. I bet that they did blah blah blah. So we're
fine except that game. So now I need this game to go to New Orleans to get us back on the schedule.
That's all they got. I don't know if you've seen their stretch of games, it's like all the worst teams in NFL, starting with New Orleans. It's that they had. They're gonna have to They're gonna have to drop one of these games. They should, They're supposed to win, for sure.
Yeah, so I like them to drop this game in New Orleans. Like you said, the only reason.
I didn't do it, the only reason I didn't do a big Day Peg or danger Zone is simply because New Orleans was coming off that win. I mean, like, let's not get crazy. They are a bad team. They're gonna go on a winning streak, got it.
Yeah, They're one of the worst season that it felt for sure.
Yeah.
At the same time, New England was not a great team and they did just have the win of the season.
I know that was that was that was the tug of war I was having. So I just, I just I don't feel great about.
I'm not saying I'm like, oh, fucking give me three units. No, but like, yeah, there's no there's no other way about this. When New Orleans supposed to three and a half.
I'm with you, all right, all right, let's move on to the game of.
The fucking weekend. I usually tease this and I'm usually just fucking with you, but I'm serious. I'm serious this time. It's those Cans, the City Chiefs hosting those Detroit Lions. Now on this one in the preseason, I had to go back and look at this. I had Kansas City Mona su Vegas at Kansasity minus three. We're sitting at Live now, I think it uh two, So you know above us a little bit high on that, I think right. Uh no, I'm sorry, I was fat on in Vegas
a little bit high on this one. So this is exactly where I had it Longhorn going into the preseason, which means the marketplace now agrees that I was right five weeks later. So what do you got?
Yeah, which is weird because Detroit's four and one in Kansas City's two and three. This is the trappiest of trap. Doesn't smell right, doesn't look right? Why is this? Why is Why is Kansas City favor? Why? And why is it favored by two points? Or whatever's lunch in and that? Like why that makes no sense. I'm not taking the bait. Give me mahomes, give me like like they want you to take Detroit. And and we've talked about earlier, like
Detroit is a cover machine. Vegas knows that literally, Vegas knows that Vegas pays out on Detroit.
All that time, but Vegas added minus three and I had at minus two and now we're still at minus two.
So like.
Vegas has just adjusted to where my pre projections were the preseason.
Preseason has nothing to do with what what the records are now and what the line should be now.
I know, but that just goes to how accurate my who's the.
Better team here based on what you've seen so far this year, not not preseason? Who's the better team clearly? Detroit Detroit clearly clearly. So it just so why why is this not pick them?
Uh? Well, I'll get into that in a second.
Okay, So basically my handicap is I'm not taking the bait. Uh And then you also have the Mahomes factor. Anytime he's a favorite under three or a dog, that's a money spot for him. Twenty nine to twelve. Ats just you know, I'm even scared. I mean, I'm going to take Detroit teased up just because it's the perfect spot and there's not a whole lot to really offer this week. But that's dude, this line scared of the shit of me. Like, I need some explanation on why this game isn't pick them.
Maybe it ends up there and that's fine, and so maybe you can wait and if you say it's going then wait, don't take Kansas City last two. Wait till it gets down to one and a half one maybe, and we'll see where it lands at. But yeah, I'm gonna be on Kansas City here. I'm gonna be on Mahomes. They lost the game last week that we we all saw it as very fortunate. Glad I hit the money line parlay Kenessey should have won that game. So they needed They're desperate for a win, and you got Mahomes
at home needing a win. I don't know. Give me Kansas City.
On the lines, ninety money on the lines.
Take take that, take that bait, and Vegas is like, yep, come and get it, Come and get it, come and get it. I'm not doing it, okay.
So here's why I'm with us. Power Grant is only Detroit Buggets throwing Detroit V two. Detroit D two's local. I've got Detroit winning this game twenty twenty six to twenty three. That's under the fifty two. You know, anytime of these juggernunt offenses play each other, I'm very has that to trust my numbers on that because I know how these games go with these great quarterbacks that you know when you really need a score. Here's the thing that has me leaning with you though, with Kansas City,
this is a good match for mames. I've said for two weeks in a row, my homes should be my homes. It's another good matchup for homesby homes. The plus one to the BVG Jared Goff's minus one the BPG uh Kansas City flat with a running game Detroit love is half a point the VPG to the running game. Now. The only reason why it's greating out for Detroit to
win this game, it's simply because Detroit offense. I mean, dude, if you don't know their numbers right now, they are on pace to be the greatest offense that this league has ever seen through fucking five weeks like they are on pace to score more points to be the fucking highest score like they are.
Schedule has been pretty weak though so far.
I can pull that off. But they are so far they are on pace. I'll pull it up to be the greatest offense we've ever seen. So that's the reason why now it's easy to say that, yeah, it's pastion, mahomes whatever, blah blah blah. But there is something broken about like because that And I'm not saying I shouldn't covered or whatever. It's fine, but there is something that And we'll look at their schedule so far so Detroit has said the third easiest schedule, third easiest schedule in
the entire league so far overall. So that's something to say too so and that so that means that maybe the buckets are more right then numbers. We'll see, But there is something about the Kansasity team this year. That Jacksonville game is what's giving me pause. That's not a game that they lose, not saying they can't lose that game, but in the in the manner that they're playing, they're
up fourteen to nothing, they blow the lead. Sure we've seen Kansas City do that a million times blah blah blah. But they go score the should be gaming and touchdown. Right, it's a minute or whatever left. They're up by four, so the other team needs to score touchdown. They kick the ball out of bounds, which is an egregious error for a team, a championship team, championship coaching, championship kicker, blah blah blah, bah blah, and then they'd let that
drive happen. They let the kid fall down twice and still score and beat them at home or sorry out they're on the road, but still score, fall down twice and still score and beat them. Those are not the games that we've seen Kansas City lose, right, that we see Kansas lose when they've getten, they just get beat. They get beat and you're gonna have them down about two scorers and all the referee bullshit and fuckery and
blah blah blah blah blah. But we've all come know and love, all that goes out the window.
I just think it's very I think it was just the they win those games ninety something percent of the time, and it was just this was the one that came up the other way.
I know.
But dude, to have that happen when they're already have a losing record, like if they were six and oh when that happened, or five and oh when that happened. Okay, whatever, they got unlucky the rest in bellbut they.
Kind of got unlucky. They kind of got unlucky on that last drive by Jacksonville too. Like I mean, just it just it didn't start right like it like they burned like a minute and got like ten yards like Jackson.
It didn't start right. But then Trevor Lawrence threw literally to the best throws ever seen ever. He through the dome over the top, and then he threw the bullet to the outside. Yeah, and that, Yes, I saw a great sweet about it. I was like we got the full Trevor Lawrence experiences. You saw him, dude throw a handful of piss rockets, have a handful of zero IQ plays.
Right and then fall down and fall down twice and.
Win the fight. Like is the full TREVORL. Lawrence experience.
So doesn't that tell you that like this that one was just like setting the stars that you're not winning.
It would have been. It would have been if they weren't already two and four or whatever.
Two and three at the time and three of time.
If they did not live in the record, it would have it would have been if they would have been, you know whatever.
They have zero injuries right now, like like now the chiefs are that they were dealing with injury at the beginning of the year. Zero they don't, I mean they got Rashid Rice. Obviously he's not injured, so he won't be back on the next week.
But like, and they're gonna be able to score the ball. Like I don't know, my numbers agree with you, the bug disagree with you. I can't say that I'm not gonna be with you on my bet. But it scares the ship out of me because oh no, sorry, my numbers are bugs. Forgets you. It does scary because in the homes. But again, there's something that it's almost like that fucking that's whatever that I remember watching the Yankees, like in the fucking late nineties orders two thousands, like
you just knew something was gonna happen. The Yank's gonna win. It's almost like that Shineess gone off Kansas City after that ditical game, because after that game, I was like, Okay, if you can't win this game, if you can't win this game, I know everything happened. You threw the pick sacks of the fucking one yard of blah blah blah fucking blah.
They kind of did. They kind of did what they always did. They drove down, they got to kill shot, they.
Just but but then they lost and they don't ever lose that. I don't ever lose that game. And then and if you think Jery Golf is gonna fall down twice in the New yor one, he's not gonna do that. If he does, he hanging. No, yeah, he's not getting I'm running for touchdowns.
And this is outside on grass, so that the greatest show on turf is probably not gonna be as last year.
And beat them week one.
If you remember, but that wasn't It wasn't a high scoring game.
No, I mean, I've got it great to the under. I've got it twenty six, twenty three, So that's the underd of fifty two. I don't I don't expect to go over. I like the eer there more than anything, but I mean, I don't know. Well, it's it's gonna be it's gonna be great.
That sounds right. Twenty six twenty three Kansas City. You get the teaser cover with Detroit Casey gets the win. That that sounds just about right.
It does sound right. Goddamn. All right, let's move on to those hot Atlanta facts. Oh, it's the first of two f f and we have to have two Monday night fucking football games. Do we have enough ship to do Monday long morning. We don't have a recap show to do or anything else. Fuck it, Let's just have two goddamn games that probably everybody's got the fucking money on. As we're talking about this bullshit, it's those Atlanta Falcons hosting those Buffalo's. Go Buffalo. It's the Bills all right.
Preseason on this one, I had Atlanta plus three. Vegas had Atlanta plus five and a half. Again, I've talked about this. I was hired on Lanta than Vegas was. It's now Buffalo minus three. No, they are back to four and a half. So we split the baby on that one. Let split the baby.
I had four and a half, it's.
Four and a half. So we split the baby on that one, which is fair enough. I was lowering Buffalo hiring Atlanta. So we're right in the middle of where I thought we should be. So we're going on this one.
Well, So as far as the game goes, I don't know. I don't know when you want to play it, but I'm going to do a double danger Zone on Monday night. We're going Maverick and Goose on both these games. There you go. Yeah, So I just did at four and a half. You're you're just you're you're you're making me, You're fucking making me. And actually both these games are at four and a half. Is at least the last time I looked, I think they're both at four and
a half. So again, double double danger zone on both dogs on Monday Night. Uh, just one on each just because I don't love this. I don't love this. I'm not going in. I'm not even going money line and I'm not going crazy with this because I think Buffalo coming off a loss, they're probably gonna win this game, probably, but it's dangerous. So now I know that at all they better. But that defense has not fucking looked good. And and I think ed Oliver's coming back this week
and they have missed him in the middle. They're just not the same team without him in the middle of that of that defense, and that will help against this running game and Beijon and and everything that Atlanta's got going. But man, just I like I this Atlanta team. It when I watched them, I'm like, Okay, besides that Carolina though, like remember I said that Carolina game, throw that out. They lost thirty to nothing. I don't know how the
fuck that even happened? Throw that out. Besides that, they have been they're a good looking team on offense and defense, and with the pass rush starting to come around a little bit, some of those young players for Atlanta starting to make starting to make their way. I just I just like this matchup for Atlanta and now Josh Josh has the thirty first ranked strength of schedule so far, and I don't actually I don't know if this is so far or if this takes into account the the
whole season. So both eves can can tell me if it's if that's what they are so far, but they're not. They haven't played very many good teams and this is a good team on the road on Monday night. So give me Alanta, give me Buffalo is a win, but give me Atlanta to keep this close. And at four and a half, that's just you just too much, that's way too many points. So I'm on them now. As far as the injury factors go, Atlanta's coming off the buy.
They're getting healthier, no significant injuries to to look at for them. And and on the Buffalo bill side, they've got a laundry list of players not out but dealing with a lot of a lot of questions, a lot of questionable, lot of a lot of their some of their best players at Oliver, like I said, he's probably gonna come back and play. So yeah, four and a half. They're they're making me take them both sieves. They are making me. And what I said when you're going is
the but the strength of schedule. I'm looking at thirty first for Buffalo, So I don't know if that's all. I don't know if that's taking an account the whole season or just up to this point, but it was. Anyways, I'm on Atlanta, and so what do you got with the numbers? Say over there, let me check the stringing schedule real quick.
See I got Buffalo the thirty seconds, so okay, So yeah, but we talked about the prison there. They had one of the easiest schedules going into leave this you know as well that this is gonna happen.
Oh yeah, oh my god. So yeah, Baltimore Jets, Miami and the Saints and then in New England last week. So like, yeah, so.
Pow Ray's got Buffalo bucksay up, Buffalo eat Buffalo D two Atlanta. I've got the BBG has Atlanta winning this game twenty four to twenty two, which is well under the forty eight and a half. Now there's a reason for that. Pennix and Josh Allen both do not grade up well versus either one of these defenses, so I expect this to be a lower scoring game than the market does. However, Atlanta does grade out well on the running game, so it should be a good game for Jon.
Buffalo grades up find their running game. So you're James Cook, you're Fantasy fans, you should be fine. There should be a good game for Vjon. Here there there's two conflicting trends and they're both coin flips really, so if you've got a home dog after the buye, it's the only good spot after the buye eighteen since twenty eighteen eighteen fifteen and one ATS is fifty four and a half percent. However, it's actually negative point zero one ATS and a line
of four point nine. We're pretty close to that, and then Buffalo is going on the buy. So if you're before the buy and you're the way favorite fifty three and a half or twenty three and twenty, but at a negative zero point one also at a lot of three point nine. So basically both those trims cancel each other out. No big thing there. Look overall for me on this one, this is a game that Atlanta absolutely can hold together to keep close, possibly still a win.
But if Buffalo is going to get to where they're going, they will win this game. That they win it by four and a half, I don't know, man, it was at three and a half earlier, but all the fun. Like literally, let me look back at the money real quick. See it's still coming in on Buffalo. They might have switch Atlanta at this point. Yeah, switch to Atlanta at this point. So they starting to come back in Atlanta at four and a half. So it's probably gonna keep
me off of Buffalo overall. But I expect them to be a good game, and I expect either quarterback to really have a great game. John should do what he does and keep Atlanta in this one and be feisty. You know, I don't really care who wins at the end. I don't have an over under either one of these teams.
But you know, we'll see what happens, all right.
All right, moving on to the second of the Monday night football games. A little Washington Redskins hosting those Chicago bands that kid now preseason this, I had Washington minus three. Vegas had the minus four and a half. They beat me on this one. It's sitting at four and a half. So Longhan, what do you go on this one?
Yeah, Like I said, danger Zone, I'm on the four and a half. I like Chicago here. They're they're they're on a two game winning streak and I don't know, I know, the buy you know, kind of puts a pause on that a little bit. But they're starting to show a little bit of that offense and at least Caleb looking like he has a clue at quarterback. And I'm not a big Kleb fan. That's been well documented,
but I love the head coach. Unlike Aaron Gunn. People are talking, there's rumors it's I'm not, but I love the head coach. And whether you whoever you, whatever you do in your bedroom, I think this. I think this head coach is gonna get the best out of you, no matter what. So the the Washington defense, it's looks you know, it's had its moments, it's it's had its ups and downs. But I just think that Chicago is going to get their points here and you're giving me
four and a half. It's the revenge factor from the just I mean just the brain dead moment from Chicago last year with the hell Mary we all saw, we all know, we all know it went on.
I remember exactly literally where I was the moment.
Yeah. So now now different head coach, different a lot of different new players. But you know, just I don't that's not even like a main factor like that. A lot of the law that's not evenna matter. But if it does come down to hell Mary, it probably won't be players celebrating before the you know, the like, oh they're running a play. I mean, let me get a right to the news, and so it's not gonna know that. But no, I just I just love the four and
a half and both these Monday night games. I think I think that these the two dogs are very live. I think that either one or both could steal these Monday night games. And uh, I'm looking for them to at least keep it close. Let's at least get a couple of units on these danger zones at the plus four and a half.
All right, so was gonna do the last one? I can't be with you on this one powering no call here, like I said, pretty close to what I had preseason bucket though, well, actually the Buggets are no cold because Chicago is now on the money plus two percent, So BT Washington D two Chicago. The total is fifty. I've got this grade at twenty eight to twenty two. Washington's right on the number at fifty. This is going to be This is going to be Jalen daniels best game
in the season. It should not be. It should be an okay game for Sugar Bridges, not terrible. However, Washington is about to run a fucking rough shot, rough shot over this Chicago defense. They get a point and a half of the BBG on the running game. This is going to be just a demolition upfront for them running the ball and Dana Danields should have fairy much successfulver this. The only thing that could derail Washington winning this game
will be turnovers, obviously, which you can't predict those. But yeah, Washington's gonna win this game. They're gonna win with margin longmar is gonna lose this danger zone. Uh and then after the buye away Dogs thirty four to thirty six and one forty eight point six percent, So you're not on the back.
Yeah, that's that's a bad one to be on right there.
That's that's I mean, forty eight point says it's not fucking terrible, but it's just it's just a bad it's a bad matchup for Chicago, especially, like I said, Jenleen Daniels, Yes, he's gonna have a great game, but this running game versus the Chicago defense is going to be I mean, Bill or Bob or whatever the fuck his name is, he's gonna be able to fucking name and score. You got fucking fans, you've got fantasy on him. You should.
If you don't, you should, fucking I mean, I know c K is gonna put out bets whatever he does his thing, but I'm sure he's gonna have his numbers crunched and he's gonna have him on over whatever the fuck is totally is because he's gonna he's gonna fucking murder literally fucking murder the Chicago defense. I don't expect this game to be particularly close. Maybe it gets close to the end or whatever, but yeah, Washington Mint four and a half. The only way I can play this
one right, all right? Was the girls. That was all them wins coming in the It's not gonna be all right along one side of those free I said three picks of the week later on.
All right, So if you thought I was kidding about fading Tennessee the rest of the year, you're wrong, because I'm I'm going against Tennessee and every free pick here. What do I got here? Is it for? What are we looking at? Yep, Vegas minus four NFL free pick of the week on the podcast.
Obsessments. I actually like that a lot. All right, Let's go with those ut s A, those road Runners, baby, maybe for your fucking college free pick of minus eleven. Look, I know Rises improved and I U T s A. They have not been what they're supposed to be so far this year. How about this is like the burn the boats moment for them. They gotta win this game. They gotta fucking win this game of margins. So let's go with the fucking road Runners at home to cover
the fucking eleven and get us that fucking victory. Baby, tell me that fabulous.
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