Oh yeah, Hello, welcome to the Football Glory Holme Podcast. We're listening to that the podcast SoundCloud streaker, watching us live on the news uh stream yard live on YouTube, Facebook, whatever the fuck, however the fuck we take each and everyone's glory's secrets tuning in this week I was supposed to be I'm going here as always, Bye, my good buddy Longhorn. Long hold what's up? Buck?
No hol ride all ride who both sea fists? Here we go Week number five in the NFL, baby Boy, and the theme of this week is going to be playing both sides of the coin, playing some middles, if you will. We're gonna be doing lots of tease ups, lots of tees downs, and then coming back on the other side of the same coin and trying to double up our money. Most even speaking of playing both sides, it's kind of like how Israel always likes to say
they love America. This seemed to be perpetually involved with killing our presidents and our cultural leaders, all the while getting huge amounts of our tax dollars. It's really fucking weird. So Bozevas, let's channel our innermost money hungry juice self and fine all the winners this week in the NFL. Hit that button. Whether you are for the funny, it's a question for fun.
I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun. We're all gonna have much fucking fun.
When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling symphony due to out of your assholes. Are you out here for the money? Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil.
Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Look at the money, money and smile on my face. Here to here, baby, You have come to the right place. Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question that has? What a stupid question?
You ask a lot of stupid questions.
My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you like money? I'm a big fan of money.
I like it, I use it. I have a little I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator.
I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right, Adams Center. That's exactly where we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's Patreon dot com, slash bet Underscore FGH become our football partners for life, so that you can bet football the right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And as always here on the sports patio, we got that TV's lower. We got the beer heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's
most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting how choice of the week. I still drunk.
I feel right, Donna, thank you very much, sir, sir. Tonight, I am bringing a loose cannon by Heaven heavy sorry seize beer in Baltimore, Maryland, three out of five stars, and I'm drinking it's not longhorn. Because did you know that on this day in eighteen thirty five, the first
shots were fired in the Texas War for Independence. Now, a lot of people think that this was because the Mexican Army tried to take the cannon from the good people Gonzales Tejas as it was known then, and that set off a fire rebellion that spread like wildfire across the territory. But the true story is the back of the Mexican Army beat the Spanish army and took their
sovereignty back. They needed people to populate the territory known as Tejas, because the newly formed Mexican government feared that the United States would tried to steal Tejas now that they didn't have any fear of repercusion, any fear of repercussions from the powerful Spanish nation, So the Mexican government set out recruits into America, tried to convince settlers to
come to the vast territory. In exchange for their courage and travel, they would be given free land, full Mexican citizenship, and of course the number one resource in all of Mexico, free lawn care service. Well, it turns out that the Mexicans were derelict in their lawnmowing duty and the people
Gonzales grass is way too fucking tall. And even after the Maxons did come and mow one last time, they refused to fucking weed eat first of all, Secondly, they refused to blow off the fucking porch at the saloon, and they missed the spot under the goddamn cannon. And the text was like, hey, you ain't done until you mow. Want the fucking cannon and then Maxans were like, it's the mocha, we can Barlin move a boto and that's when the shit hit the fucking fan. So ultimately that
is how the candy got involved in the story. So all the shirts that say, you know, come and take it, they really should kind of read come and rake it. But either way, cheers to Texas independence. Baby, this is the day it's starting for us to be fucking numero uno.
See I can appreciate that story, and I can go along with that. Sounds legit to me. But the story that I heard was that there was it wasn't Gonzalez, it was a guy named Gonzales Stein, and then there was a guy on the other side named Davy Crockett Stein, and somebody all higher up convinced both these people that they hate each other and they sure to fight all the while both sides were paying heavy, heavy tax to somebody. It wasn't sure where it was going, somewhere overseas that
we we on parts unknown. That that's the story I heard.
It's always nos all right, girls, were do the podcast. Now We're going to every game in the NFL in the air tonights, and of course we get you pay for those free picks as we always do, but right now we have to get paid to do that. Oh it's our sponsor. Look, let's face it. Going to the doctor sucks. You got a schedule, a pull, but take time off where to drive there and waiting for up to an hour just to finally see a doctor. Well not with my good buddy doctor weston Texas telehealth dot com.
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health insurance. So whether you gotta peen the stern green a little to sumusize around your thighs, the yeow shit coming out of your nose longs, than I was go to texta telehealth dot com right now and be sure to tell them that FGA sent you that it's Texas t e l e Health dot com for all of your medical needs please, and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages. Oh my god, okay, it's happening.
Do you think is happening right now? Excuse me? What is happening here?
What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh?
You know what's happening.
It's time for all those wins coming in the air to Nightmber. All right, boys and girls, it is time to get into every game in the NFL in the air tonight, and we're gonna start. Oh you sounding my blood, goddamn London games over in London. We're Lawhorns. Cleveland Brown's home game, not quiet home. I don't know. You know, they do like dogs in England, especially English bulldogs, and
I think that's pretty much the mascot of Fleeveland. So hey, it's a fucking home game they're hosting those Minnesota Vikings. And I was looking at preseason lines in this one, so I had this one at plus seven, Vegas headed plus seven? Should lock step on that, it's down to three and a half, we're three and a half and then live. Uh yeah, we're sitting three three on this one.
Well as always good eight mate to the people crossed the pond. Now, before we get started with a handicap, I just I was just thinking, because Israel is on top of my mind for all the wrong reasons right now. But when is the first game in Israel for the NFL going to be? Because if I know my good Jewish friends, they're not missing out on this cash cow called the NFL. So they're not gonna like that these uh, both.
Teams are gonna lose, and somehow it's gonna be their fault. I don't know, but either way, you know, they'll see a lot of concessions.
They'll say this, they'll say that game didn't count. We want our money back, that you can't have a tie, so that they'll rts send us our money. But let's lay off the juice for a little wile. I think we've we've We've done enough to get kicked off YouTube, I'm sure. So we'll check the analytics after this show and see just see how long this lasted. Probably not very long as far as this game goes. I am going to be on Minnesota here, not that I look. We talked last week that I'm kind of in lockstep
with Cleveland on what I know. You're bad, Cleveland. I know what you do. I get it now. You play really good at home, and you suck on the road. And this is not only on the road, it's across the pond in parts unknown, So it sucks. Well speak
speaking to suck. They're going away from Flacco, who has sucked really bad, and they're they're throwing in the rookie, the third round draft pick, Dylan Gabriel, And you can go and hit that drop again if you wanted to both it, or you can say this, or you can say they're stupid for even playing him. Either way, I can't think of a worse situation, like if I was setting up if I wanted to make sure my rookie quarterback had the worst possible start ever, is there a
what what would you do? More traveling overseas which he's never done. Obviously, starting against I don't know, the most complicated defensive coordinator in the league. One that confuses veterans like, what is this? Is this a setup to fail? I don't get it. You know, the in Minnesota's coming off a loss overseas. They were in Ireland, lost lost to Pittsburgh. Now they just take a short trip down to England and they are looking to bounce back from that line.
I mean, this is you talk about throwing you to the Wolves. This is I'm all on Minnesota here. Yeah.
So the Cleveland Brown coaching staff, organization, ownership, You've lost your goddamn mine. I've never been a believer in Dylan Gabriel. I wasn't a believer in him. Where was he before Oregon? Now I've lost my train of thought.
Was he in Washington?
No, Indiana? Maybe somewhere runner there? Either way, it doesn't matter anybody playing the organ system. They've proven that that fucking coach is awesome. He's one of the best coaches all college football. He fucking turns chicken shit into chicken salad constantly at that position. And I mean, you said it all. I don't have anything else to add. I didn't even run numbers in this game. It's not worth it.
I have no fucking comfort Dylan Gabriel. I could run Joe Flacco numbers and just put them up there, But at the other side we got Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz has been a fucking disaster from Minnesota if you look inside of his numbers, a fucking disaster. This dude sucks worse than he's ever sucked in his entire life. And how is that possible when every other fucking veteran comes in this system and that plays so great. I guess the dude just fucking sucks.
Well, he's okay, but he's better than JJ. And they they won a game with JJ.
No, I'm not saying they're not gonna win, but I'm just saying, like, that's the reason why I didn't run the numbers, because what am I gonna run them on Fucking a rookie quarterback that I got nothing on and a fucking quarterback who sucked balls for two weeks. Like, no, I'm out, So I'm out on this game. I don't give a fuck. But yeah, there's no there's zero chance that could ever back Cleveland in the situation now, Flaka
was starting. You could probably talk me into it just because maybe that defense travels, you know, and Carson Wentz has been so fucking bad. Yeah maybe. But this number though, here's what confused me the long one. Vegas and I were both at minus seven preseason. It's cutting half, it's cutting half. And this is with a rookie quarterback who's never seen the field in a terrible situation like you just laid out, yet our number is cut in half. I don't understand that, and that scares me. So that's
another reason why I wouldn't play. Another reason I just wouldn't.
Play this game. Yeah, well it's because Minnesota is it has underperformed dramatically from what some and they're dealing with massive, massive injuries. So like there's massive injuries on the offensive line for Minnesota. So in this should be a very, very low scoring game. Points are going to be a premium. So this game thirty six ish.
Yeah, thirty six and a half. That's the grossest lowest total that we've ever sent overseas. You know, I would apologize, but you know what, Fuck you England.
And one last thing, oh by the way.
All our listeners in England, which we do have a lot of we love you. We love you guys, so please please keep listening, please keep watching. Sorry, I apologize personally for this football game that you're about to have to watch. You'd be better off going to watch the high school as you call football game the soccer rather than going watching this. This is gonna be a shit show.
So just out, I just I don't want to go too far on Carson Wentz because he is working his way back in. This is a new system with him and he's only paid what oh is it two full games? He was thirty for forty six for three hundred and fifty yards and now he did have two mistakes and interceptions and took six sacks.
Let's give some let's what's his pff greak is? I guaranteed it's horrific.
Well his QBR was forty one, so yeah, it's it's gonna be bad. All I'm saying is the completion percentage, the yardage is there. Give him some time to clean up the mistakes, maybe maybe learn some check that, like, you know, to check with me. It's in the hot round.
And the what's his name fucking stepped in last year and was dynamite from the very fucking jump. Who Sammy d Well.
I hate to tell you, but Sammy D's a better quarterback than Carson Wentz. So it's not they're not gonna go fourteen all you know, They're not going fourteen and three with Carson Wentz. But they don't have to. They just need to go. They just need to win this game by three and a half points.
You know, they're over Runner right now in Vegas like seven and a half.
Yeah, it's I mean, and that's that's that's what it should be. I guess, you know, like, I mean, what are you gonna do? What's who's the quarterback? I'm looking up what's his name? Carson Wentz is uh, he's he's graading out as fifty eight and JJ was grading out as a fifty five, so he's actually grading out better than JJ. So but but it's the offensive line. It's the offensive line. Like the injuries are just that they
got some clusters there. So I'm encouraged. When they get these guys back, I'm encouraged, and some more time with with O'Connell in the system, I'm encouraged that they can still be close to what I kind of thought they would be. And let's not forget Green Bay's wheels have kind of fallen off, so it's look, it's Detroit is looking like they're just they're just still the fucking beast of the of the North again. So we'll see what happens.
Yeah, all right, we'll move on to Oh those j e Just no Dallas Camels on this one.
Oh cows.
Let's see, I had the cows minus one, Vegas had a minus one and a half. They're sitting at two and a half. So pretty much what we expected Longhorn on this one. Now, this game did world opening to pick them. All the money went to the cow, so the market corrected itself immediately back to what Vegas and I thought preseason. So I should do have some thoughts on this game, but I will let you take it away what you got.
Yeah, this is this one I've gone back and forth on, but I have landed on the jets. So Motivias, you want to get that sounder button ready because we're gonna go ahead and hit the sounder on those New York Jets. So let that siren go. That means that this is a call for the four, the four New York Flag.
Football Jets to be obviously have your pickup.
No, I would never in a million goddamn years do that. But let me just say this. The only way I lose this and there's a good chance I lose it because obviously the Cowboys are favorite.
It's just Daklus plus how many units.
We're doing two on this one. We're going to this one. I like this one. Look, Dak beats bad teams. That just flat out he beats bad teams, and that is my concern. But everything, literally everything else points me to the Jets here number one. They're going for They're desperate. The new head coach who everybody says he's so good, I would love to see him actually prove that he's so good here in this spot against a team that he has a very legitimate chance to get his first
win as an NFL head coach. Justin Fields, Justin Fields should go bonkers on this shit horrible Cowboy defense. They got nobody. They won't be able to stop the run. And with Fields and the running game of the Jets, and I feel like you're about to quep of a drop here, I couldn't tell uh that they should be able to run all day long on this cowboy demons. Keep Dak and that offense off the field. And my last part of this handicap is, well, there's two more parks.
Number one, Stas Gardner, I need you to be the Sauce Gardener you were previously when you were an All Pro. He's not been quite that, but in but in this game has been great. He's he's not grating yet, he hasn't grated out great great, like I'll look it up. I'll look it up when I sent to you. But but in this matchup, George Pickens is the perfect perfect player for him to be able to shut down because sauces hands on physical That's how he wins as a cornerback.
And the only way George Pickens wins his hands on It's gonna be a fight match. And I love the matchup for Sauce there. And if you take away Pickens from this cowboy offense, good luck. So and then the last thing is who in the fuck are the Cowboys to be favored on the fucking roll? This is a terrible, terrible team. Everything points to the Jets here for me, except for the Dak factor, because look, let's face it, we give Deak a lot of shit, but he is
he's a really good quarterback man. He well, you know at times, Yeah, you're right, you're you're we're probably playing down in the middle more than most. But a lot of people give him more shit than he deserves. So I'm a sounder on jets. Take him with two oh I want the two units on the the two and a half and on the money line. You got that right, So it's two and two oh four unitsky, yeah, yeah, so four units total, and I'll look up I'll look up Sauce and see what he's currently grading at.
Okay, so on this one we got pwer Ringkings calling for the Jets. Buckets are on the Jets. V two's no called D two Jets. I've got a no call on totals at forty seven and a half. The BBG grades us out twenty four to twenty four, which will not quite hit long horn sounder, but it would cover the two units on the two and a half LOGA, Longhorn said, I mean, obviously everybody grades out well like quarterback against a shitty fucking cal secondary, that's a given.
But dag heshad goats half a point versus this Jets team. Now, the Jets running game it grades out flat. It's not negative, but it's not positive. But the Cowboys running game does lose a half a point. So where I took a deep dive on this one was, look, the question is not if fields is going to be successful. Everyone is successful versus Dallas defense. But if you know the two games that Dallas says either one or tied, it's when
Dak is his most successful. And we talked about this in the offseason, that this new offense would have a lot of pre stap motion. That was all the buzz, and Dak's never been good with that. Well, obviously the coaching staff has learned that very quickly, because they're still running below average pre snap motion plays twenty three percent of the season. Lee average is twenty seven and Dak has been fucking awful at it, four point nine yards
per ten with pre snap motion. Now, the thing they are doing at above average clip is at snap motion thirty nine percent league average of twenty nine percent, and Dak is better at that than pre snap but he's still below league average. Dak doesn't like a lot of moving parts. He's more like Aaron Rodgers likes everybody. He's stationary, don't move, want to see what I see, and that's
how he likes to play. But the thing that they still do second most is Zach's favorite thing, and that is the no motion and his YPA is seven point three on those plays. That's his best metric. So the question became to me, can the Jets stop that? Well, they're below league average that asks that motion and above leave average at no motion, so it's kind of really of a wash, which is why Dak grays out right
about on his average here in this game. Now, the Jets do run more zone than man, which is an advantage to them because Dak has been so much worse than zone than man. You've seen he's at his best when he gets man with CD, man with Pickings, man with Dez. That's when Zach is best. He doesn't do well versus zone, and the Jets are very very good in their zone covers this year, but it's it's not
a huge disparity overall. I can't find a matchup advantage for the Jets defense or Dak either way, which is why this game grades the way that it does as a tie. So I wanted to be with you. I wanted to be on the Jets. That was like one of the games I had circled, even as a deep dug into it. I just this game is gonna come down to, you know, execution on third down, nobody fucking up on special teams or turnover. This is gonna be
a very tight game. It's gonna get swung one one way or the other on one of those funky fucking plays, or maybe a couple of them, and it might end up being a you know, double digit win one way or the other, just because of just funky shit. But as far as matchups schematics, these teams match up very well against each other two and a half points like that on the road. Like you said, the only way I could play it was the Jets. I really wanted
to fucking take the Jets. I really wanted to take them on the money line and put them on like a money line parlay as well. So I don't disagree with you at all. I just couldn't get there schematically. Now, like I said, the BPG is with you one and most of my metrichs are with you, So I don't disagree with you at all.
Well, this is the start of the Hall of Same coaching career of Aaron Glenn. That's no doubt one hundred gonna happen.
So you know it's I mean, Bill Belichick lost in Cleveland, so you know.
Whatever, Yeah, it's it's he's he's not. He didn't get hired because he's black. He got hurt because he's really really really really really really good. So it's this is this is what is he Jewish? Though?
Really is?
No? I don't think so they don't.
They never never know. Let's move Oh god, let's move on. Ye goddamn Philadelphia Eagles, those den Verb Broncos, all right on this one. I had Philly five and a half. Vegas had them four and a half. It is currently three and a half, so Vegas is close to me on this one. I guess I was a little bit higher on Philly because I was pretty good. I was pretty high on them or two, so I had to
be my Philly numbers a little bit off there. Longhorn on this one, though, if you look at the money, it is definitely coming in on Denver a little bit. Because we were at the five and a half of the World Open, which is what I had. It at preseason and we're down to three and a half. So now juice three and a half. We'll call three point seventy five somewhere running there. So if you're looking to lay it with Philly, I would advise doing that sooner
than later. If you're looking to catch it with Denver, just wait a minute. But anyway, what do you got on this one?
Yeah? I would love to catch a four with Denver because I am going to be on Denver here. They're they're kind of look, Philly is costing me dearly this season, like it's been. It's we're only through four weeks and I think they own at least two losses for me on the official on the official record, and that just can't happen because one of their one of their wins was on a blocked field goal that the Rams were
gonna win the game. They were turning for a touchdown, so so couldn't didn't cover, didn't win, went the other way. And then of course we saw the block punt against Tampa Bay last week kind of kind of turned that game into a massive, massive lead for Philly that Tampa almost came back and won but couldn't quite get the win and didn't even get the cover because so the
three and a half is really killing me. And once again we're sitting here with a three and a half point line, a juicy, juicy dog, and it's it's really worrying me. But the fact there's so many offensive line injuries for Philly. They cannot get anything going on offense. They cannot run the ball with with Sakuon Barkley because of that offensive line, and A. J. Brown has been an absolute no show. Don't know what's going on there. Is he gonna get traded. He's chirping every week he
doesn't get the ball, he's chirping. So there's the Philly offense is a major major problem. If it if it wasn't really these fucking special team touchdowns. It again, they could they could literally be two and two right now. But I did not hit the sounder or I didn't make this like a big Dick pick of the week for reasons it well several reasons. Number one is bow Knicks.
Bo Knicks is not playing well now. He's bo Nicks is four and seven is in his career as a dog, So it's it's just for whatever reason he's they've been lining up and beating teams in his short career when their favorites, like we saw it last week against Cincy Bullyball, just just they they roll teams with that good defense,
that pass rush. If they can get the lead and open up that pass rush that Denver has and let that defense really flourish, they seem to thrive when they when they when they fall behind and they need bow knicks to kind of make some place to keep them in a game and even win it. That's when you're running running into some trouble. So you know, I couldn't hit the sounder, I couldn't do any kind of like
you know, big day piggering ninth like that. But I do lean to Denver at the three and a half, and I would love, love, love to catch a four. Last thing on this is because I already talked about how lucky Philly has been and how they're they're not really a foreign oh team, but they are four and oh but they're not, but they are. So the last thing is Denver never fucking wins in Philly, like never, They're one in six all time. They don't win there. So it's just, you know, as much as I wanted
to be all over Denver to win and cover. I'm just gonna I'm just gonna take them to cover and hope, just hope that they can get a lead, because we saw last week with Tampa Bay. If you don't get the lead and lean on Philly, you're just your your uphill battle is not good. So it's it's it's Denver for me with the points, all.
Right, So this one was compeasing me, so I did a little bit deeper dive on it, and the power King had Philly. Like I said, I had a five and a half preseason, but the buckets on Denver B two's no call, D two's on Denver totals forty three and a half. I actually got it going under that. I've got this. The BBG grays at twenty twenty another tie, so go Denver Lo's ties, lots of ties. So this is an average matchup for Hurts, not the best. It's a terrible matchup for bo Knicks. But it's a bad
matchup for Philly's running game. But you have to factor in the fact that Sekon's not being good so far this year, so that's in there. But it's an average, just an average matchup for Dimmer's running game as well, so no advantage there. Now, obviously it's a bad matchup for bow I try to find anything that he does, anything he does better than league average, and through all the stats that we build all of our models off of, there was not one.
He has great hair above league average hair.
That is true. Unfortunately they did not make it in the model.
That has to be a point. That's gotta be a point. I don't give a shit. If you don't have a point on his hair, you need to redo your model. That's all I'm saying.
Fine, I'll go back to work in the morning. All right, he's twenty third at CPO, who plays EPA, twenty eighth QBR. He stinks And yeah you're probably thinking, no shit, bo Sebus. We all have eyes, we know he fucking sucks. Tell us something we don't know. All right, then, this Deedford defense is really good fourth overall and EPA for play, but they are sixteenth in defensive Russian success rate and another downgraded Berkley in this matchup. But again it's taken
into count. He's already played games this year, and he's already played two of the best defensive rushing success rate teams in the league in Tampa Bay and the Rams, both top ten. His best game was against Kansas City. No shit, they're twenty ninth, so there could be an avenue for sake once who outperformed his grades to the BPG on this one. On the passing side of the ball, though, Denver is elite third in EPA six and success rate, but there are two spots of weakness that Philly could exploit.
The only two spots of Denver grades up blow league average are against play action and against no motion. So the play action thing for Philly really doesn't exist so far for some reason this year. I don't know what
they're doing, but historically this is Hurts best spots. I honestly don't know what the fuck they're doing in Philly play action versus Mande, which Denver plays the highest percentage of mand defensive league because they have fucking great corners obviously, So if there was ever a time to bust every play action pass you have out in the playbook, it
is this game now. As far as the no motion goes, that's what Philly does most of the time, and Hurts gains over one hundred basis points with no motion versus any motion at all, and Denver is over seventy basis points worse than league average with no motion. It's their only real weakness. So we're gonna see how smart this Philly coaching staff is in this game. They should be able to establish Sake one, even if he's not great.
He should get around four yards per carry, which is good enough to set the play action passes, which we have not seen from Philly all fucking season. Right now, they average four point four point twenty five play action passes a game. That number needs to be at least eight in this game. It's their only avenue to score on this Denver team except for special teams. As longhorn Off actually mentioned, they have scored a million points there. So I'll be watching this one closely to see what
Philling Philly this coaching staff does. How well do they adjust to find these avenues that they actually can't exploit if they so choose, And of course I'll be watching to laugh at bow necks, as I always do so, but I've got nothing on this one. This is a This is a real learning stick game for me to see if this Philly offense can adjust and actually can get the A. J. Brown going on the play action. That's where he's at his best. It's where fucking hurts
says the best. We just haven't seen it. They're doing four times a game with Saquon motherfucking Barklay in the backfield. You're running four play action passes a game. Four What the fuck are you doing? And that's your quarterback's best plays, his best play.
Well, they can't run though, you I mean not that you have to run and do play action. It works anyways.
And if you're not running enough, yeah, a fucking bomb back there, then yeah, who gives a ship? But you got Saque at any moment. It's a house call. You have to pay attention to him.
And only thing I'll say is that we have not seen, in my opinion, the best from Denver. Obviously, we haven't seen the best of their defense that they've been not They've been good, they've been good, but I don't think we've seen the best of them. And then, of course, assuming there's more into in bow Knicks, I mean, if you're there has to be. We saw last year. We literally saw it last year. He's better than this.
This is what he did last year. That's what he did. Now, what we haven't seen is the best jailing hurts, that's for sure. That dude's fucking went to two Super Bowls and one one of them he's played like ass. You mean he average is like one hundred and ten yards a game passed in the second half last.
Week, heay, I lost the game without without him competing in the past. That's that was awesome. Happened. Thanks reminding me of that.
Why don't you get me half the money you were gonna ban. I'll kick and we'll call it a day. That's what I said the long horn every time you betskains.
That's what it felt like when when I lost the game with zero completed pass and the second half, That's what.
It felt like. All right, let's move all to those Baltimore Ravens kind of you're hosting the Houston Texans. I'm not even gonna go over the preseason lines. Not worth it. Lamar's out, obviously, report is he might be out two to three weeks. Our fucking Super Bowl pick is dead, dead dead Longhorn dead.
It might be dead, could road, it could be us.
His road favorites road favorites in Baltimore yeah, I can't even say that. I almost chooed in my mouth just saying that a one to three team is a favorite in Baltimore.
That's to say it out loud type type situation. And look, it's a major line moving this game. It does feel like a Baltimore spot.
Nine and a half to two, a major line moving there.
That's just two much. It's too much. It feels like a Baltimore spot. But I ain't hitting the sounder on Baltimore because I don't trust them with all their defensive injuries and and I don't I don't trust Cooper Rush. Although look, Cooper Rush has shown that he can win football games in the NFL. He's backed up that. Yeah, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if Houston wins, or excuse me, if Baltimore is this game. But man, and they're champion, they're like, they're a good champion type team.
So but I just can't And maybe that's just maybe that tells me I should be on it, because I'm just being scared in a pussy and these are the exact type of games that you need to be on. I should be hitting the sounder. It should be hit that Sounder, but I'm not hit pretty much. Oh my god, that's almost enough to talk me into the sound But I tell you what, I tell you what. Let me
throw it to you. And if you like Baltimore as much as I want to like Baltimore, Baltimo, I'm too much of a cigarette to to do it, then I will. I will post my handicap hit the Sounders. So you tell me.
Like I got nothing on this game.
Oh my god, who is this cigarette? Now? Now?
My only thought here is and this is the reason why I have none of this game. Cooper Rush was very good with Dallas when Dallas was a good team and Dak went down for some time, you know, but you also saw what Cooper Rush was when Dallas wasn't a very good team. Last year, he couldn't win a football game. Now he's back with a very good team. But my problem is this, Dallas's offense with Dak performs exactly why Cooper Rush would perform. This Baltimore offense is
not the same. It is built around Lamar and all his special capabilities an athlete. So now you're talking about limiting a playbook that has been literally built around one of the most special fucking players we've ever seen, and now you have to adapt it to not one of the most special players.
We've ever seen, and against a Houston defense that is elked.
And how much how much playbook do you even have left?
That's my question?
How much playbook can you even cool? Because I mean, how many plays in that playbook are waggles, rollouts, sprint outs, fucking power options, fucking quarterback draw I mean, like it's got to be at least sixty percent of that playbook is all built around I mean, there's not that many straight drops in this fucking offense. So what Cooper Rushing can roll through forty percent of the playbook? How much easier does that have to make this great defensive head coach? And in this defense.
Maybe you don't remember the Cooper Rush rushing. His name is not Cooper Rush for for nothing. Okay, he can run the ball, all right, let's go together. Now he can't. He's he's not gonna be able to do it.
Yeah. So, in other words, you've got forty percent of the playbook to prepare for for Houston. And this is not a team that's not played this team they've played two years in a row now, in the playoffs and in the regular season I think two or three times actually the last couple of years.
Yeah, they always seem to me.
So they've seen each other. So they already know what Baltimore's not gonna be able to do. They know all the plays that he does that Trooper will be able to do. There's just I don't think there's nothing in bag for this offensive winner to be able to pull out. Now the their only fucking hope is that with the straight drops, save Flowers can fucking do something and Henry goes nuts, which Henry could always do.
That's tough defense, though, I can't bet on that. Yeah, And let me just say, like we talked about Houston defense, it's obviously the identity of that team, and they are lights out, but they're switching them to what he marks. The rookie running back out of USC is gonna give a lot more juice in that backfield at not only running the ball, but catching the ball in the backfield. Yeah, he already has. He's made a difference.
And then Baltimore defense is a massive and has been. I say, fati, they've given up how many points are bad?
They haven't been. They haven't been good all year since Game one, and we talked about how bad the We talked about how bad the Houston offensive line has been. And I don't know if you've seen some of the blooper reels of the Houston offensive line, like people going, people going the wrong way off the snap and running into each other's offense. I've never seen this from an NFL team, but I said that to say this it's turning.
It's turning. The The PFF numbers on this on this offensive line are nowhere near what they were to start the year. And that's including the number one ranked guard in the NFL as of right now at ingram Out. If he's like a third or fourth year player round or U s c L a guard. It's it's starting. Look, I'm not saying that Houston's gonna make a run at
this division. I'm not saying they're not, but it's it's starting to look like, Okay, this offense could have some pieces that are coming into into form here, and if they can get just an average on offense with that defense, we might have something here in Houston. So we'll see possibility.
Yeah, that play, I know exactly talking about where the center and right guard literally blocked each other and the rest of the line.
One guy, it was doesn't that literally doesn't happen though.
And one guy they're like, hey, let's fuck this guy.
I don't know who the offensive line coach is for the Houston, but I would have if I was the head coach, I'd have walked over there after I saw that play and like, get your ship and you're just in whatever point part of the game it was, you're out of here. I could find I don't even need you. I can tell them to do better than that. That's terrible.
Yeah, anybody can coach them to do better than that. Well, speaking of a team that's got something to say about your texts coming up on the division. Oh, it's Indiana Jones in those fucking Colts, Pholson R awesome. Vegas raid us all right now in this one pretty good move. So I had Indy minus two, Vegas had Indie minus one and a half. Uh, it's Indy minus seven. So that seems like too much to me. Longhorn, did you take it?
Well, you're talking about your preseason from preseason. Yeah, you're you're gonna be. That's gonna be every week. It's gonna be like that for Indy, for you, because we were just apparently way off on what we thought they were gonna be to what they might possibly be. So but in this one, this was my first of many Split the Baby type games.
Vegas wanted to an item of two, so we were both right there, Yeah, you're not gonna fucking exceed our expectations combined by this much.
Like it's maybe not eventually, yeah, maybe not eventually. We'll see how it all plays out, but this was gonna be my first Split the Baby obviously teased down Indy, I was pretty pretty heavy on wanting to lean towards that Vegas plus seven. But brock Bowers is missed another day of practice. He's obviously been fighting that knee injury, and by the way he had that offense hasn't looked the same passing wise since the knee injury that he
sustained in like the first week. Like it's just he's been playing through it kind of not looking the same. But now he's missing some more days of practice.
And I'm worried about what what this this immediate future for brock Bowers is gonna be.
But other than that, like Vegas they're they're they're really just Geno Smith away from being a three and one team two and two at worse because the block field goal at the end of the Chicago game. Can they be sitting at two and two? And Gino's been as bad as he's ever been that I've seen him since he started his career.
So, like, I think this handicap I had on them, tell them all the summer with Gino Smith's a real quarterback. They got no quarterback. Now, this team is not as bad as thinks it is. They're gonna be five hundred's fun and yeah, thank.
You very much, you know, yeah, so and and really if block, if brought Flowers can just be healthy and kind of work his way into close to his one hundred percent? Is he's gonna get with that knee injury that he's fight through that I really really love Vegas at that plus seven, it's just the Brough battle.
Play, like, well, how healthy is it gonna be?
I mean, I guess he's gonna play at some point. Does that giant knee race that he's obviously fighting through, is it gonna be something that progresses to something else? I don't know, But let's say he plays I love Vegas on the plus seven. I love Indy on the teas down. We're splitting the baby or taate. We're playing both sides. We are we love Gaza, we hate Gaza. We love Gaza, we hate Gaza. That's the that's what we're doing here, all right.
So I dug into this one flat a bit so power rankings for me. Have Indy here, Blacky Gray though Vegas V two Vegas D two Vegas, nicoll on the total, I got another tie, it's twenty four four. It's right on the number of forty eight.
Take the overun ties this week and cash out, all right.
Both quarterbacks straight out flat here, Indy does get a half a point through the running game away jenty. I told y'all last week he was going to go off. This is not the week for him to go off. So, but here is what I dug into this one. It's all about Gino bouncing back. I know that the BBG said is a flat matchup, but honestly, the only thing Indy does on defense that will drop his numbers is on pre snap motion, and Las Vegas only runs at
thirteen percent of the time. Indy has a slight edge of man coverage, but they only run man thirty six percent of the time. So Gino has been very good in his career versus his own covers. And Gino has only had two bad games out of the four and they were horrible, but the other two games was great. One was against the Chargers, who were the number one defensive success rate against the pass, and then last week versus the Bears. Look, that's just one of those NFL games.
Nobody can explain what the fuck happened because the Bears sucking against the pass. That Indy is sixteenth. So you have to think no glaring matchup weaknesses versus defense and going to get you know, more of an average competition. It's got to be a good game for Geno. Look, he had over three hundred yards and three touchdowns versus the Skins and New England two games out of four so far. I said, three hundred yards and three touchdowns.
And yes, I know both of those secondaries suck twenty second at twenty ninth respectively in defensive success rate against the pass. Yes, Andy is a step up from them, for sure, but is it enough of a step up? The Raiders won't be able to score the fucking ball. They've scored twenty points in every game this year except the Chargers, which again, the Chargers are elite versus the fucking pass. Now on the other side, the Raiders sink against the pass too, so I do expect Indiana Jones
to be just finding this game. But there is one matchup that favors the Raiders, and that is the Jones is much better versus man than's own and the Raiders run zones seventy four point four percent of sign that's the third highest rate in the entire league. They do it at a Bobve league average clip and the problem area is one of the The problem area are one of the worst man They're one of the worst man coverages teams, and Danny Dowme's feast on man coverage, especially
shitty ones, which the Raiders definitely are. So the key for the Raiders staying in this cover is this, stay out of fucking man coverage as much as possible, play zone and don't fucking blitz it. And on offense, stay away from pre snap motion, which they really always do, and have your best man beater plays ready for those few times that Andy will go man coverage. That and oh yeah, don't throw three fucking picks gino.
Okay, yeah, don't maybe just gino. Don't be a fucking don't be West Virginia, GINO. Be that just pretty good gino from from Seattle that we remember, and just transfer that to this well coached, well coached Vegas team with Pete Carroll. I'm still waiting to see what I think they could be. But like I said, they could be two and two or even three in one at this point. So I think you're getting value at the plus seven and I like to tease down.
All right, well here we'll here's what won't let you beat the teas down. But it's ah, I'll call it the numbers geek pick of the week, but it's a pretty good trend.
Wow side nerve, get out go.
I ain't got time to be distracted by your worth.
This chime is gone, gone longer.
It's not gonna like this. So since twenty twelve, it's week five. You are one and three, No, sorry, you're three and one. You lost your last game. That's end eight thirteen straight up eight and thirteen ats And then if you do that and you're the favorite five and nine straight up five and nine ats and the teasers in such cases eight and six for the favorites fifty seven percent. Thats not making you money on a teaser. It's the only team to qualify for that. But there
are several teams to qualify. In the first trend that I gave the Chargers, the Bucks, Colts and forty nine ers. Now four Nineers are obviously dogs, the Bucks are obviously dogs. So the Chargers and Colts go to the favorite. But overall, it is a terrible fucking spot to be in. It's that old momentum thing. You were three, and oh you just lost the game. You think, oh, we can bounce back. No,
you don't fucking bounce back. In fact, you lose more than you win at a sixty two to thirty eight percent clip straight up not even ATS.
So okay, well, then that tells me that I need to go ahead and plug in those Vegas Raiders and plus seven and split the baby heads it out.
The baby all right, Let's move on to those pearl lot of panthers. Hustle those my Hamma Dolphins.
Do we have to?
Unfortunately we do?
Okay.
I had Miami minus four, Vegas had them minus one, and a half. Vegas speak me on this one. I was too high in Miami preseason. That's it. It's one and a half. Basically, live Longhorn. What do you got on this one?
Where did you have Miami yet?
I had him at minus four, so I was wrong. Now they're not a minus one across the board.
So so in this one, I look not allowed on this one. I probably won't lay a single dime on this game in any way. But if you're gonna pick them, I'm probably gonna be on Miami here and reluctantly on Miami. I do not want to play Miami at all. But Cuba Hubbard might not play in this game for Carolina. And if you're looking for any kind of real, consistent, good player on the Carolina offense, it's just Cuba Hubbard.
And this is a good and this is a good matchup for Cuba Hubbard against this defense, or at least at least from the numbers that I've looked at. Uh And so so if he can't go, if he cannot go against this, this Miami defense, I have to look
towards Miami in two always beats bad teams. He's kind of one of those eer typical good but not really great quarterback that's going to beat up on bad teams, beat up on bad defenses, light up the scoreboard to where people think that he's better than he is, and then when he plays a real team, he just gets his doors blown. And we know that, we know, we just know the truth about too. He's really good against bad teams, and he sucks. He cannot cover, cannot beat
the good teams. So he's playing a bad team. Here, he's playing a team that has a bad defense. And on the other side of the ball, for Carolina, Bryce Young is just he's a this is a this is turning into almost an embarrassment because he did have a little blip at the end of last year, but that was coming off one of the most embarrassing, horrible starts to a season that we've ever seen, like including Tim Tebow.
So saw numbers on him and literally his career so far, he is if all matches you can bottom, is the worst starting quarterback other than Tim Tebow.
And here and here's the deal. Don't forget they traded up for this guy, so they mortgaged part of their future, building around a huge part of it. So you can't just do that and and then the quarterback suck because if you do, you know again I think I I think I got sucked into the Carolina thing again. I think I picked him win eight games. It's it's just gonna be not even close. They're gonna win four or five games. Again, Like it's just Bryce Young. He sucks.
He's not it. He's not the dude, and he don't. Don't be surprised if in the last four or five weeks, when everybody has given up, they know that they suck.
Touch down pass last week. By the way, if you didn't see that trash time.
Oh did he? I did not see that? Okay, oh my god? Are we gonna Are we gonna get the red Rocket again? Jesus Christ. No, I don't want to spend a lot of time on this game because I don't like it at all. But I will be on Miami and Bryce Young sucks.
Yeah, I'm not spending time on it either. Just I would say the BPG grais it out twenty four to twenty. Miami Overrunner is forty four and a half and no call there. I mean, it's a it's a flat match of about both quarterbacks. But here miam Here's where Miami will have an advantage and why I think they win the game. They're gonna have an advantage running the ball with their scheme versus this Caroline offense or Caroline defense.
Excuse me and number two my ally, The other point is I think that, you know, losing the fucking fastest girlfriend pregnant girlfriend kicker in the world could be auditioned by subtraction, at least in the small front. He's obviously a fucking distraction in the locker room. He didn't want to be there. You saw him fucking cheering like a motherfucker, like he just did the lottery when he s ending his career. I hate him too, I've hated him since
Oklahoma State. But either way, for coming together moment, this could be one of those sealed the locker room type deals. Sure play a shitty fucking team. It's a small travel from Miami to fucking Carolina. I mean, it's it's Miami pass. We're here. Oh, let's get onto the game that I know Longhorn has been chomping at the fucking bit to get into. And you know what if I said that four weeks ago, he'd be like you're out of here, goddamn mine, But here we are. It's those New Orleans
Saints hosting those New York Football Giants. All right, this was.
Supposed to be it's going to be all over the place.
No, So I had New Orleans minus two. They're sitting at minus two. Vegas had New Orleans plus one and a half. This is one of the few games that Vegas had the Giants favorite and I didn't. I had New Orleans sitting exactly where they are, so I bet they beat me on the last one. I beat them on this one, Longhorn. It's New Orleans minus two. Just like I said, it was gonna be taking away.
Well before I take it away, we're getting some fuckery here in the San Francisco game with some spotting of the balls, but we'll deal with that later because I think the Rams are gonna come back on this game. Go to go to go to Texas. Tell health dot com if you've got spotted balls, Doctor West, take carry for sure. Now this one is fiddle in the middle
action a lot of those this week. I may or may not have already put out in New Orleans at pickam on the on the premium page, I'll be sure to go to that premium page at our patreon dot com slash bet underscore. Fgh. Maybe it's there, maybe it's not. I don't even got to purchase to find out. But I do like that the number has gone up. Would you say, is that right now? Yeah? It's at two? Oh is this steaming either way? Are we gonna get two and a half. It's pretty flat, it's it's flattened
out at too. Okay, that's fine because I may or may not have played the Giants back on the teaser at plus eight. So this is this is again we talked about open a lot of a lot of a lot of playing both sides here. This is one. Now, Spencer Rounders never won a game. Does that worry? Yes? It fucking does, because he's not He is never you know, I mean, I don't know how to say you never want a game. Now, you could say, you could say
he does suck. But here's the deal. New Orleans knows they're gonna win somewhere between zero and four games this year, and four is one.
This is the one.
Four might be pushing it, but I'm just saying, like they're over under was you know, five and a half. I think so five five and a half. So this is like, man, if we're gonna get one, if we're ever gonna have that feeling in the locker room, that that winning feeling for a shitty team, you want to have it one time. This is their super Bowl. This is literally the stadium is gonna be ready for it, you know.
And also never won a game. Kellen Moore is a head coach. This could be his first.
Yeah, good good point. Good point, like they're they're they're thirsting for a win here and that and last last point, I'll throw it to you. The giants kind of. I mean, we saw the celebration between Dart and and the coach last week that they felt like that's a monkey off the back, Like, holy shit, they were still running the one super Bowl. It's a natural letdown spot. It's just a natural letdown spot. Not to mention Dart like there's
some more. There's tape on him now, you know. So so they'll be able to shut down some of that running game, force him to beat them with the past. Neighbors is not there, so you don't have that bell out throw over the top. Look, I like Newlan's to win this game. You know it's but I do think it'll be closed because no one sucks and and Ratler's number won a games, so he's not going to get to win with margins. So New Orleans to win, Giants to cover the teaser, and let's let's play both sides.
All right.
So I did grade this out. I do have four weeks now for all the rookie quarterbacks and Spencer Rattlers of the world, so I am able to grade pretty much every team now rated in fairness. I degrade the Giants with Russell Wilson's numbers because I don't have enough one Jackson Dart, but I was like, eh, close enough. So the power raking is on the Giants, the buckets are on the Giants, but the B two's a no call. D two's on Giants. Forty two is the over under.
I've got this twenty four to twenty two New Orleans, so that's right on the two points. That's a no call for me on the VPG. But here's the thing, this should be a decent matchup for Spencer Ratler. He gets half a point through the BBG. I can't really say what it's gonna be for Dart. Per se. But here's the other pause to part for New Orleans. They should be able to run wild on this defense. They gain a point and a half of the BPG. That's
what he needs. He needs a fucking running game, and he needs a control of the clock and just wear down this Giants team, like you said, coming off a big high. They get down, we'll see what happens. But I do have this humongous trend on this game, and this applies to the Taxons, which they're gonna catch a break probably, but the Dolphins too, which that's what kept
me off, the Dolphins and the Giants. So Week five, again, you were one and three or oh and three, you just won the game three and so this opposite of last the last trend of game you were three and oh and lost a game. This trend is you were oh and three and you just won your first game. So then now it's week five, you're one and three, three and fourteen straight up, seven and ten ats forty one percent and eleven and six of the over, which
I do have it going over. So numbers line up with that part of the trid lease and the average line on that is a plus three and they're plus two and they're losing at a two point six culative ats mark.
So you're all over New Orleans two.
There's only New Orleans in the over all right, all right, here we go. We're moving on to this is a difficult one. Those Seattle Seahawks hosting those tam uh Bakers. Maybe Bakers, maybe no Bakers.
I don't know.
I think he plays. He's a tough kid.
He ain't missing shit.
Yeah, he ain't missing. So on this one preseason I had to pick him. Vegas had Seattle plus one Seattle minus three and a half, so I was closer to the Vegas. We were still both way fucking wrong. I think you right now, it's still three and a half long horn. So you go on this one.
Yeah, you say this is a tough one. It's almost like this one is a dangerous one, because I woke up feeling a little dangerous this morning. Boats. Even so, this is gonna be the danger zone game of the.
Week, all right. So right off the bat, Baker.
Eight missing his game, He's gonna play. He's a gamer fifteen and eight, fifteen and eight as a dog for Bakers. So I like that. I like that we're getting to three and a half. Now, as I mentioned earlier, the three and a half has been the absolute kryptonite for me this year. I've got multiple losses taking the dog at three and a half, one of them by this by this very Bucks team last week against Philly at three and a half. So it's kind of been a
little little fools good. Well, remember the La Rams plus three and a half in Philly.
That was the impossible. The Bucks got whipped pretty good, but they did have a chance to cover and the.
End had a great chance to cover at the end. So now that can't that can't continue because three and a half is one of the greatest numbers in in football betting period. So I'm killing that Bucky Irving being out or you know, probably out, we'll see, haven't haven't seen officially ruled out, but he's yeah, but it But either way, we saw him be out last year and they still had running it like uh the Tucker kid
White or Shaan White. They've got running backs. They might not be as as dynamic as Bucky Irving, but they've got running backs. But the defense for Tampa Bay you can't run on them. And Seattle's identity is running the ball. Is running the ball and playing defense. Well, the the Tampa Bay defense is gonna shut down the running game. So now you're stuck with Sam Darnold, who has had a reserve in his career, being able to find enough weapons to to, you know, win this game with margin
by more than three and a half. And these dbats for Tampa Bay, this physical Tampa Bay defense, it's really only one guy that they got to shut down in JSN. Outside of that, if they shut down the running game and JSN they should, they should be able to win this game. So with the danger zone on my mind,
I'm gonna do. I'm gonna do one in one, one in one, one one need to want to now plus three money actually changed just on a three and a half, two units on a three and a half, and then I'm gonna listen to your handicap and then I'll decide if I want to if I want to go moneyline, but definitely, definitely I'm on Tampa Bay plus three and a half in this game. And both sieves do the numbers agree with this? And does Tampa Bay have a shot to steal this game against Seattle? Who who I have?
I think I can't see a boarder now, but I think I have them in the Anster Championship game with Tampa Bay. So this, this to me is the NFC Championship matchup. So uh, what do we got charter or something? Well, I mean you know that's uh that that's just that's just like your opinion, man, I mean.
All right, so on this power rankings agreed, Tampa Bay buckets right now, no call B two, Tampa Bay the money. The money has not moved in this game. So I'm watching the money. I'm still watching the money. D two's no call. Forty four and a half sen the total. I've got it slightly over that. I've got Tampa Bay winning this game twenty five to twenty two. Now here's what scares me with this matchup is it's a flat matchup for Sam Darnold. He should be fine. It's not
a great matchup for Baker. He loses the point and a half of the VPG. But to your point, Seattle loses a half a point on their running game. Tampa Bay gains a half a point on their running game. And we've seen when Tampa Bay can run the ball and Baker doesn't have to scramble and get out of fucking forty seven fucking sacks and you know, have to do something awesome or something stupid.
He's gonna do that. That's just what he does, I know.
But like when he doesn't have to and they can stay on time, this offense is a fucking machine.
Yeah, and Godwin is gonna be I think he had ten target last week and like two or three catches like that's not gonna happen again.
And they're gonna have to lean on this running game because again, it's not gonna be a good matchup for Baker, So I do not expect them to have a great game. So it's gonna have to be the running game to Texas home. But the good news is they do have the advantage there and they do great out to win as far as my numbers go. So I back you on this one.
For Tampa to win. For Tampa to win, yeah, okay, then do one unit on the money line.
One you need money line? Okay, I will look that up in a second.
Okay, Yeah, you're good, You're good. What's the next one?
Oh, it's the fucking game of the week. Of course, it's still the Arizona Fight Midgets versus those ten See titles. I mean, how could you not just be glued to your TV during the fucking spa Like we have to have this in the sparse ass three o'clock fucking times, Like there's four games and this has to be fucking move this ship up, moving to London, moving to fucking Japan. What a we have to do to not have this game in the fucking three o'clock time? Song? God damn it?
All right?
On this one, I had Arizona minus seven and a half. Vegas had a minus five and a half. It's sitting at I believe seven and a half. So I beat Vegas on this one, like I was waying down on Tennessee and I was a little bit higher on Arizona than Vegas. Now I'm not sure that I'm right, I'll put that out. I'm not sure that I'm right I'm being higher than Vegas and Arizona. But clearly I was fucking right on me and more down on the Titans than they were. So long, when were you got on this one?
Yeah? I hate to burst everybody's bubble here, but I don't do write ups on Tennessee games anymore. They are unvetable. Why would I waste my time digging into a team that what are they both say? It was three and eighteen ats under this coach, like.
Three in eighteen? How did they ever cover three games?
I don't know. I would love to go back and watch it, like they're on unbeedable. So I'm not wasting us three twenty seven on the money line. I don't give a shit. I'm not wasting my time writing them up.
Uh.
Put them in the hell corner TV forever, stuck there until until this coach gets fired unbetable And and this is a free pass every single week for me, all right?
Plus one sixty five.
For Okay Tampa Bay.
Okay, So that's a good that's a good number for you. Yeah, okay. I did go ahead and grade this game out. I don't have anything on it, like it's it's an okay matchup for Kyler. It's not a great matchup for fucking cam word. But what is forty two and a half is the total I've got it going under. I've got Arizona winning twenty two to sixteen. That's not quite covering the number I'm not betting. Tennessee. Don't worry boys and girls. I'm done. I've taken my chastising and I'm moving the
fuck on. But Arizona should be able to run them up pretty well in this game, should be able to do what he does. Tennessee won't be able to do anything, So Arizona wins. If you haven't picked Arizona and.
Your survivor yet, what do you think? That's what That's what I was gonna ask. What's the percentage of Arizona this week and survivor if they didn't pick him right because they played Carolina. That's what I was That's what I was thinking too, So like.
Yeah, there's a lot of I've already burned Arizona in both of mine because I okay one of them at New Orleans week one, and I burned him the other on the other side with Carolina coming. So probably not a lot of people have Arizona left. That's all I'm saying.
I do. So they're definitely my survivor pick.
That's not a That's not a bad pick at all, sir, Not a bad pick at all, all right, Moving on to Longhorn. Well, this this is long Horn. This is the long Horn super Bowl. This fanatic hosting those Detroit Lions.
What does that even mean? I don't even know what that means.
I don't know. I'm not going over the pre season lines because obviously that was burrow In. Who gives a fuck, he's not there. Now we are sitting at this thing. Got up to fucking ten and a half at one point.
Uh where at Now it's a flat ten.
I'm trying to look, where is Thomas this fucking game? Oh yeah, they they fucking moved this game to three o'clock hour. Now it's still pretty much ten and a half across the board. So ten to ten and a half. You can get plenty of ten's out there if you want to lay the ten. If you want to catch the ten and a half, you can get that too. So pick your poison here, boys and girls.
Yeah I'm not. I'm not necessarily looking to lay the ten, but if you're, I mean, you know, if if I had to, like, if you're in the league that that picks every game against the spread or every game straight up, I'm just taking Detroit in both and and looking and just not even thinking about it. They are They're still a machine. They're still they're still doing what they've kind
of always been doing. I don't see it. Do you do you notice a discernible difference between the Detroit with Ben Johnson and the great Hall of Fame Aaron Glynn to this Detroit team. I don't.
The only difference was the green Bay game.
Right, which was within the first game. Yeah, So, like, I mean, let's just say that there was I mean of some sort of a learning curt I mean.
Let's say that Green Bays is the better team, which they probably are and is what it is.
Maybe we'll see. Yeah, look, I don't want to overthink this. Cincinnati sucks, but they've sucked with Browning against some really good defenses. I do think that Brownie is gonna have a little bit of a bounce back here, be able to score some points. They they haven't scored anything in like two weeks. They're gonna put some focus on that. But the machine of the Detroit offense is just too much.
And my last thing is I just I will not spend a lot of time on on going against Detroit because there they are a seventy percent ats machine since Dan Campbell's been there, seventy percent golf golf, same thing, you know, they're they're they're you know, coincide together. Obviously, you have to have a damn damn good reason to bat against Detroit, and we thought that this year would be a good well, we thought this year would be a good reason to bet against Detroit because of the
you know, the the coordinator changes we did. We weren't sure how how much Ben Johnson had influence on that team.
Base.
Good job getting now it. Don't do it again, just don't do it. But yeah, so yeah, I'm on Detroit here. I just you gotta have a good reason. And and Detroit does not take their foot up the gas. That's the thing. If they if they smell blood in the water, they fucking throttle it. They foot down to the pedal. They will run it up on your ass. So they're much like a college team in that way to where they're not gonna kneel on it at the end of the game and just hand off, handoff, handoff. They're gonna
keep running their offense. They're gonna keep doing They might not do trick plays if they're up, if they're up by thirteen, but they're they're gonna run their offense. They're gonna do their ship.
See Detroit versus Chicago early this year.
Well that was personal. That one was personal, So I understand that one.
But the funny thing is Dan's not even mad at him for leaving because he can't be. He took an opportunity. Why wouldn't. I mean, dad couldn't be happier for the kid.
No, But that's just that's just competitive. That's what they're the both competitive.
Ye Sons. Not welcome to the fucking show as well. Yeah, that one movie like that that was and they were still running tree plays like oh, I mean they went forward to like fourth and three forty or thirty on the like six yard line just to throw another touchdown to fucking anonymous s Brown Like it was so like it was. It was one of those just ass whippons that you just like, if you're Ben Johnson, you you knew what was coming. You know who that dude is, You're just gonna take it.
Like, look, they have they clearly have love for each other and respect for each other. It's just like a father and son. Like if you're a father, will if he gets a chance to teach a son a lesson like in physical like they're playing that he's gonna take it same way when the sun grows up and gets a little gets a little physicality, and hey, I got a chance to put it on you, pops, I'm gonna do it. It's the same thing, so that it's it's just competition. But yeah, Detroit, you gotta have a reason
to bet against them, and I don't. I don't see one here.
I don't either. The Power Greens do have sensy on this. This number is just.
It's they're going to like, it's just going to that's just yeah, it always will.
But the buckets are on Detroit, and buckets, by the way, boys and girls are now eighteen and eighteen and twelve overall, So I'm bad. It's having another great season. I'm hoping to unleash them soon. I want to get through this unleased four weeks. Plush the uh plus the fucking whip around. We usually have her for these four weeks where crazy shit happens. Now the B two and D two are no calls on this one. Forty nine and a half
is a total. I've great this created well well well to the under I don't trust that necessarily, because, like you said, if Detroit can go put up forty. They're fucking gonna now what the BBG spit out was. Detroit went in twenty seven to fifteen, which would cover the ten and a half, put it well to the under. But your point, Brownie does actually great and I do have grades on a brown and now he actually does grade out decently. He gains half a point against his Detroit defense.
That's shocking. That's shocking that it's grinding it out to the under, that this has over ridden all over it. I know, I know that is shocking.
But here's the thing. Cincinna is not gonna be ever to run the ball. They're not gonna be able to run the ball in this game. That's gonna make it tough on Browning and Detroit should be able to run the ball at better than the average clip. That's just gonna make it easier on golf. The easier they run the ball in that offense, the more points they fucking score. The board opens up, the play action everything they love
to do. Yeah, I mean, I'm not in the business of laying ten and a half, but if I had too good in my head, I can't back Sincy. There's nothing in the numbers and second back Sinsey. So I'm with you.
Twenty to twenty rams ball with nine minutes left. Here we go, baby rams ball, yep, rams ball, nine minutes left.
All right, let's go do it, fucking Matthew Stafford, don't don't fail me now, back, don't fail me now.
Don't say anything in Jenson, just let it go.
All right, Let's move on to those Sandy Yeah, go souper.
Oh, back to San Diego. They were always san Diego. They were never not san Diego, never.
Not san Diego. All right, they're hosting those Washington Redskins. All right on this one. Let's see what we had. I had Washington plus two Bays had and plus one and a half. We're sitting at I believe two and a half live now. We did have some no sorry, three, let's say two point seventy five, because any threes are juice.
So but there are threes. But there are threes, okay.
Plenty plenty of threes. Plenty threes now longer and I had some discussion on Monday. He thought this line was San Daniel's house. Said no, it's a fair line with Daniels Inns. I knew what my preseason grades were and he is gonna play. He is gonna wear knee bres yup. Scary Terry not gonna play. No Brown, not gonna play. Not that fucking matters at all. But I mean Longhorn talked about also in the preseason that other than Scary Terry might be one of the worst fucking receiving porters
in all the football. How do they score against his Chargers defense? I don't know, man, Longhored.
You got Yeah, everything you just said I tend to agree with, but I don't care because I love me some Jade Daniels and get the get it ready bosis because this is gonna be the big Dick pick of the week, and.
Pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donky dick.
Sire, fucking we've more deal nice, I'm gonna put some my dick in. Yeah, so just call it a gut check. I don't have a whole lot of numbers to back it up. I'm hoping when you throw it to you, you've got some numbers to back this up. But this is this is a Daniels This is just a Daniels play. And and sprinkle in some some Herbert coming back to the Herbert that he We always saw that he was whenever he gets pressured.
How many units, We're.
Going two and two, two and two, two units on the three on the three?
Got it?
Okay, uh, it's a big one. We're going. Okay, Joe all out later already was out. This is too much. This is the identity of the Chargers. They are going.
People off the fucking say by the.
Bell cast right now, or you know, I can you know, I could go deeper. I could. I could go into Makaia beacons like that. I'm not even done with naming the rosters, so don't even get me started. Don't even get me started, because I could, I could go much further with this. But the injuries are adding up, and this is just this is the Herbert versus Daniels play, because Daniels can succeed and perform without having off his best players. We've seen it, We've seen him do it.
He can do it. Herbert, on the other hand, I love him when everything is good around him. I don't like him when it's not. And this is a situation where it's just not gonna be the Redskins. They are,
they do get pressure. They're they're a team that can get pressu on the quarterback and with both tackles out and a guard out, I just think this is gonna be a nasty, low scoring game where Herbert's gonna gonna have the ball at the end of the game with a chance to win, and Daniels is gonna have the ball at the end of the game with a chance to win. And if you're asking me who I want in that situation, I mean, that's not even close right now.
Give me Daniels, gimme Washington win this game, take the three, take them on the money line, give me some Washington.
Longhorn at six Central immediately regret.
No, I don't know. I fucking don't. I stand by it. I love it. This is win is this game? Is this a three o'clock game? Yeah? Is it's free? Oh? I can't wait for this game.
No, it should be a great game. So power rankers of this got the charters bugs, You got the Chargers v. Two though Washington d two charters forty eight to total. Here, I agree with you. I think it's lower scoring. I've got a great out the Chargers twenty three to twenty, which is really a no call for the BBG because at the two and a half or three, it's right on the fucking line. But that's forty three points well to the under. Both of these teams have struggled again
in the red zone. I expect that to continue. It's a decent matchup for Herbs, it's but it's not good. It's a really really bad matchup for Daniels. And what the Redskins like to do is the point and half of the BBG. And the bigger thing to me is it's a good matchup for the Chargers running game. They should be able to run the ball if they can run the ball with Dobbins and the kiddo, not Dobbins, the kiddo and uh no they have two kiddos.
Now you're playing the charters. Yeah, Hampton and Dobbins. It's pretty much it that they're running with Dobbins. No, it's it's just Hampton now because Naja Harris got hurt.
That's right. So it should be a good matchup for Dobin. Not I said last week it was gonna be fucking Hampton's like breakout game. That it doesn't grade out that way on this one. But he should be okay, should you know, do a little bit better.
He's looking good. He's he's looking really good. That he looks like a one for one game.
He looked good. Yeah, but and I told you he was going to But I also told you that was going to for his one game. That he's looked good.
So who's breaking out in this game?
I mean, it's not gonna be the Redskins running game. I'll tell you that. And it's not gonna be Jayden.
So, but it is gonna be Jayden. You shut your horse mouth.
At the end of the day, the numbers agree with you, at least to the fact that it will be a close game. They may or may not cover the three. I don't have him winning. Look, it's just one of those spots that the Redskins don't go win. They just don't go win this game. So it is what it is.
That's your daddy's Redskins. That's your daddy's Redskins. This is not your daddy's Redskins. Look.
I love Jayden two. He is very special, but he's got a knee brace on.
Oh. He could have played last week. He could have played last week. They held him out.
But with the knee brace, he was hoping to get out of the knee bras. They're not gonna let him out of kne bras. He's not.
I think you're just having RG three flashbacks PTSD right now, and it's uh, it is. It is very kind of on the same line. It's kind of a.
Little scary, well, except that RG three was never as good at throwing the ball as Jade Dan, especially under pressure. An improvisational ship was great if it was his first read on a set up play, perfect in that Shanahan offense. Yeah, he like, if you reincarninated RG three and put him in the forty nine ers right now, they'd be fucking great. They would be the same thing as the Redskins were before. Like, it's just that's how those type of quarterbacks operate. But yeah,
Jayden's so much further beyond that. But I can't get there with you on this one.
The charters have a left tackle, and you know how much I have follow players and depth charts and draft they have a left tackle starting that I've literally never.
Heard of they do.
Someone has to play left tackle. Unfortunately, you can't not play, you can't go with a four man line, So I've never heard of him. He's graving, he's grading out terrible. The whole line. This looks like the Houston Texas Literally, the Houston Texas office line is way better than the grades that I'm stirring at for the charters. Opens the line right now. This is horrible. This is like worse
than the league type offensive line gradings. Right now with it because they have three starters out obviously, Yeah.
So if you try to play with four offensive Lindeman, it's just frowned up, like masturbating on an airplane.
Thanks a lot, Ben Luden, Thanks a lot, Ben Ldden.
All right, let's move on to those. Let's go buff Hm those built those are those new England Patriots. All right, So I've admitted whenever's wrong with the Bills. Preseason, I had a minus six. Vegas had a minus eight and a half. I think that's it definitely opened around there, but it's definitely come down when I got the money line up, hang on, it's around eight seven a half eight, So we open it ten. We're sitting actually sitting behind. It's coming back up now, so we're sitting between eight
and a half and nine. So Vegas more right than me on this one, for sure, So let's call it let's call it eight point seventy five at this point.
Climbing.
Yeah, it's climbing back, but it opened it tens, so heavy money on the Patriots coming in first. Now late money's coming back into the bills to push this back up. I don't know how longer. What do you got on this?
Yeah, this is another it's another fiddle in the middle type game. We're gonna have to get both sivas to pull a drop with a fiddle so that we can we can because this week there's just a lot of them. Now, Uh, the fact that the that the numbers climbing for New England, let it keep climbing. Let's see what the ceiling is on this because as we've seen, the sweet spot against Josh Allen is when it gets to ten plus as
him favored. I don't think it's gonna get there, you know, but like, just let it keep climbing, because because I want to take Buffalo down and the teasers and I want to play New England on the other side, this is Drake May's chance to kind of plant his flag as like, hey, we're coming, We're next. I'm the next big you know, like young quarterback that's that's gonna have You know, we've seen him do it against shitty teams.
This is a chance to go on the road. He doesn't have to win this game, but if he can go to go tot to toe with Josh Allen, uh that that's a chance for him to say, Hey, I'm next. So it's a division game, huge division dog number. So I'm looking to play this middle. Already got Buffalo teased down. You should have already done that too, and then just late just wait and see see how see how big this number can climb for New England.
Yeah, numbers agree with you there, so power Reagan's on Buffalo New England though, we got the buckets. But Buffalo's v the V two New England D two forty nine and a half is total sitting. I've got a pretty close to that. I got Buffalo win in twenty eight twenty. So it's gonna be a no call by the BPG. It's basically ride on the fucking line. It's an okay match up with Josh Dellen.
Not great.
He gains a half a point. It's not a terrible matchup for Drake may Henley loses a half a point, but it's not good. But on the flip side, Buffalo lose a half a point on their running game, which has been crucial to this team. New England gains. I have win of the running game, which will help the young quarterback continue to be established in this game and not get blown the fuck out. That's why it's right about the number. You know, I really wanted to be
on New England here. I can't get there. It's I'm right at it. So yeah, if he gets a ten, yeah, I'll probably fire on New England for sure. Sitting at nine and several books right now, that's tempting enough on its own.
That's good. That's a good number. Nine is a good number.
Nine is a good number. But I'm gonna let it. I'm gonna let it ride, like you said, and see where we get to come game day. All right, let's move on to I believe this is the football bat up. It is those Cansas City Chiefs, and they're going to my three and one Jacksonville. Who saw that shit coming?
Not me?
I'll tell you that. I'm gonna fucking laugh my balls off when I see this number. Okay, I had Kansas City minus five. They said it minus four and a half, So we were, you know, pretty lock step there. We're sitting it between three and a half and three live, so there are plenty of both available. Every three is juiced, every three and a half is juiced on the dog. So let's call it three point twenty five long horny.
Ot on this. So as we're watching San fran go Totte with the Rams live twenty to twenty in the fourth quarter and they've got a chance to win his game, see how it ends up. That tells me that Jacksonville who beat the breaks off this San Francisco team in the trenches. It's I'm leaning that way. I'm just leaning that way. And historically, historically casey, as we know, is never good. Is over three points is never what you want to be laying with k C. Now, oh, almost
intercepted with that ball. Let's do live commentary on a game that y'all can't see and and has already been finished by the time you listen. Isn't that fun? The trenches for the Jacksonville should be able to control this game on both sides. The the running game for Jacksonville is their strength, it is their identity and defense. Somehow for the Jacksonville Jaguars. That has become their identity and taking the ball away. They're one of the league leaders
and taking the ball away. All those things point me to Jacksonville. And if San Francisco can win this game tonight, that just makes that just makes the the Jacksonville plus three and a half even stronger. As a matter of fact, it'll probably dip it down to they'll lose a half point. It'll go down to uh plus three for Jacksonville if San Francisco San Franciso can win this game. Now, my fear and also faith in this game is Trevor Lawrence
because he has been god awful. He's been god awful and they're still winning, which tells me that we have not seen the ceiling on this team yet. Because if he can just get to where he's playing average quarterback, then it's gonna get then then and they're they're doing good in the trenches. They gotta get running in. They got a good defense. It takes the ball away. Man, Maybe we haven't even seen the best of this Jacksonville team yet. And Brian Thomas can't catch the ball all year,
so how good can this team be? But bottom line, you don't historically lay three and a half with Casey that they play that they keep these games close. Casey might win by one, two or three, but they just don't win on margin these spots. So I'm on Jacksonville here on Monday night football.
All right, So this is the game I dug into quite a bit, so strap in boys and girls. It's the last one. I didn't mean to do this to you, but I just happened to.
So knock it.
Out, powering great Jacksonville bucket k C V two D two k C forty six and a half the total. I've got to go in under that. I've got Kansas City winning twenty three to twenty in a nasty one. It's not a good match for Lawrence C. He loses half a point. It is a fantastic matchup for Patrick Mahomes against a point and a half. It is not a good match up with the Jacksonville unning game. They lose a half a point. It's a flat matchup for
Kansas City's running game. So on this one, this is pretty straightforward.
With the quarterbacks.
Mahomes has a clear advantage here. It's not really worth breaking down. It's not worth breaking down on the Trevor Lawrence, I either, like you said, he's been fucking terrible all year, He's not gonna be good here either. But for me, what was interesting is that the BBG spit out that Jacksonville will not have great success running the ball, because if you look at Kansas City's run defense, it has been fucking awful so far, thirty first and EPA twenty
ninth in success rate. So I was thinking, how the fuck are they losing to have a point? Did I fuck up? One of the fucking equations is what is going on? Jacksonville has been a top ten rushing offense so far this year, So I had to do a deeper dive on this, and I found that Jacksonville's best run is the inside zone. They run it twenty five percent of the time at six point two yards per
tempt Longhorn. That's fucking amazing. Their second most used run is man concepts, they run thirty one percent of the time at a four point eight yards per clip, both well above league average. Kansas City's defense is not good against the run, but their best concept they defend is
inside zone. They only allow three point four yards per attempt, the league average is for so they're excellent at it, but they don't defend MANICMPS man comps very well, giving up five point seven point five yards per tempt league average a four point two. So Jacksonville will struggle with their best running concept, but they but should have success with their most utilized running concept, which is why you want to see theo point five downgrade through the BBG.
But inside of that, I did want to see directionally if this holds up well, Etn's best spot to run the ball in the inside zone concept is actually in the middle of the line where he averages almost it's incredible, almost ten yards per attempt and one hundred percent of his ninety five explosive yards on the season have come on that play in that concept. Well, if you look at Kansas City's defense up the middle against the inside zone, they go from three point four yards per attempt down
to three point two. Their explosive play rate on that is only seven percent. They have given up two explosive runs on the entire season for a total of twenty four yards. Translation, I think Kansas City can stop the big play from happening here from ETN on those plays and without those plays this offense is fucking dead in the water. And three of the four Jacksonville games they have had, they've scored over twenty points, every one of them with an explosive run out of that set for
Mets end. The one game he did not have one of those explosive runs of the set was versus Houston. They scored seventeen points and they should have lost by goddamn million, but of course they didn't because we had money on Houston. But by the way, Houston has a YPA against that concept for three point one, is only given a one explosive run on it all season, so same as Kansas City. Couple that with the fact that Patty should be Patty. Well, I've said for a long time,
he's not been Patty for a while. He was fucking Patty last week. He should be Patty again this week.
Got the weapon back, not the weapon back.
I can't do anything. I can't do anything but lay the three points here with Kansas.
City, period three or three and a half.
It's a three a lot of places three point two five.
Yeah, So look, and I don't if you notice that I'm not taking this three and a half. It's on a forest I would at three, I would I would take case and it's it's Spagnolia against Trevor Lawrence. I just I don't like that.
Not a good matchup for any anyway. Like I said, the quarterback him is a watch Patrickmon's always gonna have advantage. But that's why dove into the run against That's like you said, that's what Jacksonville, that's what's carried them after I dove in to see exactly what's carried them. Yeah, that inside inside zone run at one of ET's explosive plays have come on that play, and that is the one play, this terrible, terrible, terrible run defense for Kansas City.
That's the one fucking concept that they are so fucking good at. If they if he doesn't get loose one of those forty yarders like he has in those other games, they're dead. This offense is fucking dead. The quarterback can't fucking play, the receivers can't fucking catch. Travis Hunter is fucking sucks.
They're dead.
They're dead.
Good stuff, good stuff, mate.
All right, boys and girls, that was all them wins coming to the ads, all right, Longhorn, As we wait to see if Matthew Safford can hindle of those bombs to save our balls like you did last week, I hope. So why don't we go with the Oh it's time for the free I said, three picks of the week long horn. Look, I feel it before you even say it. I feel it. Longhorn is getting off the snide this week, baby, I oh feel it, don't you goddamn pick those Jaguars though.
Oh am, I am I on the snide because I'm above five hundred on the premium pigs. So if you're just just free picks, don't be cheap. Don't be cheap and go to the Patreon page and get the real picks, cause like these, these free picks can go.
He's killing it's killing it over there.
You know what, you know what I'm gonna do. Here's my new strategy on free picks. I'm bent against Tennessee every fucking week. I'm gonna go eighteen and three. I'm gonna go eighteen. So give me those the Arizona Cardinals minus seven and a half is my free pick. This is a can't lose situation.
How about that? That's a fucking solid, solid strategy. Or all right, I'm gonna go to college free pick of the week. Oh, we're going deep to the fcs. We're going Nickel State and Lamar. Let's take the under forty four and a half?
What high schools are those? What? What state did they play? High school?
App Ohio. I believe these are two of the worst offenses all the FCS. I got it projected at forty eight, Like forty four and a half is the bottom. If he gets below that, don't go there. But you know what could go wrong? What could go wrong with picking an under a two of the worst offense? So that probably fucking score one hundred? Who knows? That's your college free pick of the week. All right, Lord tell me that Famulus Patreon one more time.
Let's get out of here, all right, once again, go to that Patreon page, Patreon dot com, slash bet underscore f eight fgs. Don't rely on the free picks on the podcast. Don't rely on the free picks on the social media's go there, sign up for free, doesn't cau sanny, become a free member and then pick your favorite handicapper bo stevestive is a step for a huge bounce back this week. I'm looking to stack those units in the NFL, and let's do that. Let's do all of the winning.
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