S6 Ep33: The Sad, Mad GOP Base (with Amy Walter)

Great job, Connor. Uh I think some recent special elections are showing a real enthusiasm gap. Marjorie Taylor Green's old congressional districts t swung twenty-five points toward Democrats in the special election just this past week. Uh, though that still wasn't enough for the Democrat to win, but that's a big swing. Uh and if there's a blue wave in November, it may have as much to do with the sad GOP base staying home as with Democrats converting a bunch of new voters.

We're gonna acclimate to the political environment these uh sad Trump voters are living in. We're also gonna explore some of the more exotic views these folks have. Because by the end of the show, you might find yourself saying, I can't believe this person is souring on the Trump administration.

My guest today is Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, here for her seventh appearance on this show. She is the most, the guest with the most, the guest we have the most. The OJ. You were my first episode. We did it together. Exactly.

Donald Trump's party lost forty seats in the House. To lose forty seats in the House this time, Trump's numbers have to be even worse. I mean Decidedly worse because even if you put every district, if if if Democrats were to flip every district that Trump lost, or carried by less than ten.

That's very hard to do. But where we sit today, this is and I think I I'm glad you pointed out the special elections because look, they are special. They are not normal turnout. Democrats dominate in lower turnout elections. We know this. So we should not take this as a apples to apples comparison for what we expect to see. in the fall when voters, even Republicans will be more engaged. But what it does give us is the latest signal of how enthusiastic Democrats are and how not very interested.

Republicans are. And that to me is if I if I were sitting over in a Republican campaign right now, that would be my number one concern is is that, okay. We know that independents have soured on Trump, which means they're not likely to come out and vote for us. Um Republicans are sticking with Donald Trump in that they say they still like him. But they're not. liking him enough or don't feel threatened enough to come out and vote for a Republican.

Hopefully people will start talking about more and understanding because I do think Democrats need to understand how much the map is starting to just narrow for them in general. Like when you get to twenty thirty two and we get uh they do the new census, uh I I this is why um uh and again I am not plugging my book, I'm only referencing it, but the one of the reasons that I really wanted to write it is that I can feel us moving into

the normal swings of politics, right? Donald Trump is unpopular, uh, therefore the he is likely to do or the Democrats are very likely to do well in in twenty twenty-six.

And that may vary well depending on how Trump's term goes and depending on how much d damage this does to JD Vance and Marco Rubio being associated with him or other Republicans. We're in this moment of people liking to switch back, like they always want something new. And so you could see that environment being favorable for Democrats.

But just still in the big sort of political picture, Democrats have this like an enormous amount of work to do to be able to sort of sustain any political momentum besides the normal back and forth. So I don't know if you can speak to any of that.

In a state that Trump carried by I think eleven, twelve points in twenty twenty four. So that's what we're talking about. A state like Ohio. again, in the old olden days, uh, would be gone in a wave year. Now it's very competitive and Sherrod Brown may indeed be able to flip it, but it is not one of those oh boy, this should be kind of a layup for us. Even a state that on paper should be a layup, which is Maine, a state that has not ever voted for Donald Trump.

Is not an easy one for Democrats because of one, how strong Susan Collins and her brand is, but also because, well, Democrats have kind of a mess on their hands in the primary and um it's not c qua uh quite as clean and crisp as, say, North Carolina. So if Democrats are to win the majority in the Senate, it has to go through states like Ohio, like Alaska, like Texas, like Iowa, all places that Trump has carried by double digits. If Democrats can't win there,

in a great year for Democrats. You're exactly right, Sarah. That sets up really terribly, not just for what twenty twenty-eight, twenty thirty, beyond could mean for Democrats. for presidential, but also what it would really mean to have a Senate majority. Um, you can't build a Senate majority just on the seven swing states. I mean look.

Democrats, where they've been successful in the era of Trump is in swing states. They have won, I think the number is s uh seventeen out of twenty one since twenty sixteen Senate races. In-swing, you know, purple battleground states. That's a pretty good track record. But now get outside of the purple states.

We could, you know, it's p I I am I believe it's possible Tal Rico can do this if the all the conditions line up. He's got a Paxton and it's a wave and he runs a really great campaign and you know, all the things. Um that it's just maybe possible. It's not a it's not an easy place for Democrats to win and they haven't proved that they can do it yet. So like um I I I I what I want is to sort of caution people against feeling too

It's not bullish because they should feel bullish on twenty twenty six. I think people just need to realize But as you led with, how little ground there is to gain without opening up new parts of the map. opening up uh a new ability to attract like a wide swath of voters. Like if it's just these little margins, it's by the five inches in front of our faces as they've been these last few elections, like that's not going to be enough as Democrats go forward. Okay.

Uh, but a key part of this, a key part of how Democrats could get more successful is because Republican enthusiasm. just falls through the floor. Um, and so it was really interesting to do some groups uh with uh people who voted for Trump a bunch of times. Uh but feel like he's doing a terrible job. Cause we've been doing on this show, we've been doing a lot of swing motors, a lot of Biden

to Trump voters in recent weeks. We've talked to them about the war in Iran. They do not like the war in Iran. But we wanted to see like, okay, what about people who are firmly in the Trump coalition? So the first couple of clips you're gonna hear were about Trump's uh address to the nation. You guys may remember this on April first. Uh that was before he threatened to destroy Iran's entire entire civilization, but it was when we all watched thinking, are we gonna get information about

What we're doing next. And it was a ended up being a pretty bizarre speech. And so we talked to these voters right after that. Let's hear what they said.

Without couching things in any way, I think it's a disaster. I think on every level, domestic governance, the economy, foreign policy, immigration, the social climate. Um, they're in a terrible state and I uh focus that blame directly on Trump and the administration.

And the Marjorie Taylor Green split, who really were basing it on we are an America first party. This is not who we're supposed to be. Um and really on on on ideological grounds, this is where this fight is happening. For these voters, it really came down to I voted for you because I really thought you were going to bring my capital gains down, right? Or you were going to do something on the economy to fix stuff.

Or you just, you know, I didn't I wasn't ex super excited, but it was better than uh what the options were in front of me, whether that was Harris or Biden or whoever. And at the end of the day. I'm not getting what I voted for. And so that to me, you know, th this is why you're seeing, I think if if we had a MAGA group here, you might get some who would say, I absolutely

disagree what the president's doing. I feel like I'm an America first person and this isn't America first. But I think the more dangerous uh group of voters for Republicans right now are those who went and voted for Trump because of economic reasons and feel as if he is doing anything but focusing on economics.

I don't really tell people I voted for Trump because I feel like I really regret it and feel bad about it, but I just basically looked at my own finances and said who's going to be better for him as I voted for him. And I just I there's if there's one thing I hear over and over again from people who are not super ideological, they're just like, I think a lot of voters, right? They're just like,

I'm trying to figure out who's gonna be best for me and I'm trying to match that with my general partisan leaning because there's a framework around politics that it you know suits me a little better. Those are not the Trump first voters. Exactly. And and so when you say MAGA, this is why it's so funny. You see some of these people do this now where they break out the polling from people who identify as MAGA.

and people who don't. And if you identify as MAGA, it's basically preordained that you will then support whatever issue follows from that because all you care about is whatever Trump's doing, I'm gonna say yes. That's just how that MAGA strain works. The rest of them and it's not even using normie isn't even quite right. It's just a little bit of a

in play? How much more dangerous does that make Republicans hold of the Senate math? If you say, you know, instead of looking at the top line, what did Trump get in this state? But instead say, Did Trump MAGA vote in this state? Does that make sense? If you take you just go at like what is the core of the core? You're it is exactly right. No matter what. Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens or all those people say those people aren't, those core of the core Trump voters are going to stick with him.

The problem are these people for Republicans, are these people who say, yeah, I voted for Trump because he's a businessman and he was going to help us with the economy. And I thought, You know, the way they picked Kamala Harris was it was kind of rigged and I didn't really trust her and I definitely wasn't gonna vote for Hillary and Biden was blah, blah, blah. Those are the people that I don't know that Democrats can necessarily win them over, although a couple of them seemed open to it.

But if they stay home That is also problematic for Republicans.

Then you have the specific MAGA component. And this is always the problem for Trump's folks in the midterms, which is that they don't turn out either because Trump's not actually on the ballot. And, you know, there's a lot of those voters, right? Where it's like, Well, Trump can do no wrong, but the rest of these Republicans and like eh uh you know, and they're just not uh and maybe maybe they get mobilized because Trump.

tells them to, but I've also seen we've saw this in in twenty two where a lot of those voters just they don't turn out with the same l numbers. Um right because Trump's not actually on the ballot. Right. That's the dynamics where you end up with Trump on the ballot for the people who don't like him and not on the ballot, uh, for the people who love him.

But they're not affiliated with party. They don't care who controls the House and Senate. They're not going to show up for an off-year election in the same way that, you know, the Obama coalition never turned out. when Obama wasn't on the ticket. Right. They were like, We're all for Obama, but I don't really care about the House and the Senate. Yeah.

Uh he fared poorly. He would be flunking. Uh he would be be not doing his parents would uh ground him. Let's listen to how people talk about why they disapprove of Trump more broadly.

you know, Lindsey Graham, you know, chirping in his ear, y you know, of of all people and, you know, Mark Levin and all these other people. So um yeah, I I d just for me personally, for twenty twenty four, and I give me the the D rating.

whole D C swamp and that he was actually gonna drain the swamp. Like that's what I was really hopeful for. And I feel like in is such a downward turn as soon as the Epstein files came out, which really puts this thing in my heart to think that maybe he did do something bad because it's like now, I mean, everything is going wrong after the even the threat of the Epstein files.

Um, and my home base is Texas and gas is almost five dollars a gallon here, which is ridiculous, right? Because we make the gas and it it comes from up the street. So I can only imagine what you guys are paying and I have a twenty five hundred dually that has carries a forty one foot R V on it. So it's really uh a lot for me to take in.

And Amy, I gotta say, I think a lot of people, especially people listening to this podcast, might wanna be screaming like, This is who he's always been, you know, this isn't a new guy. Like when when she's like, This is not the same guy. I think a lot of people are like, This is exactly the same guy. What are you talking about? But it what what I am struck by is

How an average voter in the first term, when there were all the other guardrails around him, he did have a lot of people who told him no, people who tried to stop him from his worst impulses. He doesn't. have that now. And so people are getting the unadulterated Trump and they're not loving it uh quite as much the the normal people who want to see him reined in. Why do you think though people are getting the sense that he's changed?

Things are going pretty well. Like my 401k looks nice and I have a nice job and we got some extra clients on. And right. And so I sold my house for a nice bit of money. You could do as it What many of these people did do in previous elections is sort of a little bit of a little bit of a little put that in a box, right? And and and really compartmentalize the bad stuff away, but now there's not the good stuff. to overcome the bad stuff.

The one thing a lot of them kept coming back to too, and this is why, you know, I also keep thinking, well, what could Trump do to get these people back on board? One of the things that you heard throughout was, I really liked the stuff he would say about DEI. I do think that was good. And the they didn't use the word woke, but you could tell that that's the kind of stuff that stuck with them over the last few campaigns.

Um they didn't talk as much about immigration. So it really was Iran and and uh the economy that dominated this conversation. But you could see some of the little pieces there of, you know, boy, if he would just get back onto the economy, if he would just get off this other stuff, maybe mm now some of these people may never come back, uh, the in this group that we listened to.

But um you understand why there are folks at the White House now and folks in the Republican campaign committees pulling their hair out because they keep saying We just need you to pivot to the economy, right? We just need you to get back up we we can get these people back, but we cannot talk anymore about Iran. Just no more Greenland. No more Ron, no more Rob Reiner, no more whatever, just

Can we just do the economy? We're gonna do the economy. Don't worry, says the White House. We're gonna pivot to that. It's all good. There's still time. It's only April, but you know, that is getting it's gonna get harder and harder. And yes. If Iran does indeed become something that is no longer a hot crisis by the time we get into the summer and gas prices do come down. This is not going to be the drag it is on the president's approval. Um

Today. But These folks really do wanna see the president re focus and that's gonna be the real question.

Well, I don't like the mean tweets, but the economy's good, or or I don't like Trump the person, but I like his policies. And now they don't like Trump the person or his policies at the moment. So that's where he gets really in the sour uh spot for these voters.

the DHS shutdown and TSA lines and TSA workers not getting paid and what what is happening there. We're going to go into the spring Ish, whatever what I don't know what you call this what era we're in right now, late spring, um with debates. uh within the Republican Party about doing some sort of reconciliation bill, right? Trying to get something done. Um, which is gonna put the focus back on

Republican infighting, right? Yeah. House Republicans don't like this, Senate Republicans say this. The president has to get involved, but he doesn't want to get involved. Right. So the the the pivot piece is a lot harder to do. than it looks. You know, on paper.

f where his focus is is a constant. They're like, I don't really care about the ballroom, but why is he focused on the ballroom instead of making things more affordable and not this. And so uh his focus would help, but it won't deliver, I think, tangible results for people in the next five, six months. Um okay.

So we also heard some Jeffrey Epstein stuff in that last clip, uh, which It was a an interesting group from the fact that Efting came up a ton and it was like and it was i it was really at and it comes up a lot in groups that are dissatisfied with Trump. Um, but this group

was mad about it and talked about it maybe more uh unprompted brought it up more than a lot of other groups. Cause they totally see this effort uh by Trump is to sweep the Epstein files under the rug. So let's listen to how they talked about it.

You can read them, search through them, keywords. A lot is redacted, certainly, which is pretty suspicious. But it is plainly evident if you look. even superficially, that he has been involved and credibly accused of really horrible actions. against women against underage girls. Um it's not a speculation or money interpretation, it's there. Multiple FBI reports um corroborating the same thing.

You know, I had like this uh uh with just my career, like this investigative like mindset and and the things If you were to take any just one scenario that's in those files and apply that here, like locally, like to the sheriff's office, I can't even tell you.

the amount of resources and time and effort that would be put in to a case like that. I don't think a lot the majority of people realize uh that so many of these people uh our representatives, our government officials, They uh th they behave the way that they do, they vote the way that they do, they act the way they do, because when you're at that level, you have that much power, uh, blackmail is a powerful, powerful tool.

to see that this happening in in our leadership on both sides sides of the aisle blew me away watching ex President Clinton review those pictures and just shaking his head like he was reliving a memory with the with the w every time he flipped a page. You know, it's it's It's sickening and it's saddening.

I think that a lot of the stuff that's happening now is because of the Epstein files. I think the war in Iran or the Venezuela thing. I think these things are happening as a distraction because I think that they're that bad.

If you and I took a time machine back to the day after the 2024 election and said that Jeffrey Epstein's crimes Would be such a big driver of dissatisfaction with the administration. Like, would that have surprised you? Have you been surprised by the shift in the environment around this issue?

He's going he talks like regular people do. He understands the ways in which these highfalutin people have gotten away with stuff for years and he's gonna he's gonna bring them you know, sort of bring them to to heal. And yes. Here we are. We have all the files. We have all these names. We have all the horribleness that these folks were talking about that was outlined in the files. And no one gets prosecuted. How is that possible?

How could you possibly be reliably committed to taking down elites and not getting

But at the core of it is the idea that powerful people keep things from regular people. And look, Trump's success has long been, and I think it was successful in twenty twenty four as well, that um These guys aren't gonna tell you the truth, I will. And then he didn't. And that's where they feel um again like It's it's not just that they're disappointed. They feel as if they had um Given him too much credit.

hit voters because sometimes I think there's issues that come fast and furious, people get really exercised about them, and then when they're gone, people kind of move away from them. And then there's issues that are slow to settle, but they stick.

How can you just move on from that? This isn't, you know, some sort of misdemeanor that we should stop talking about. So I think maybe that's why it's so sticky, or is there something else, Sarah? Like what is keeping this? Still top of mind.

for people to discuss Trump's betrayal, which they feel broadly, but the Epstein files is one of the quickest things to reach for to talk about the betrayal and and the feeling of this is the opposite of who you were supposed to be. I got I can't tell you

how much of as people are they're trying to like figure out what it is that they're s why they're so disappointed with Donald Trump. And I think for each of them, they're kind of reaching for the thing that they thought he was going to be that had stuck in their mind for the kind of person he was, one of them being Great businessman who's gonna fix our economy. And and each of those things

is a disappointment right now. Um, even even the on immigration, where you're right, that wasn't as much in this group, although it's all over lots of other ones. And certainly when things were happening in Minneapolis, nothing came up that didn't talk about the immigration thing. The number of people who just say

Well, I wanted him to close the border, but I didn't want him to go after people who've been here for twenty years and I think the way he's doing it is extreme. It's sort of that. They're like I heard him say that he was just gonna deport criminals.

And they're like, I believe that that's what he was saying. Now, of course that's not what he actually said. Like if you were really listening, but the vibes that voters picked up was this guy's gonna deport criminals. I'm for that. But like he's not gonna grab a grip who's been here for twenty years.

Why is he doing that? Why is he m scaring all these people? Anyway, I I think that there's a lot of betrayals that people are feeling and Epstein is one because I I I've always believed this is one of the reasons gay marriage, the trans stuff, ever

Everyone like on the I don't want to say that this is sex stuff because it's it's actually worse that it's my it's not sex stuff. It is a uh it is the the cover up of a pedophile ring. And so it is uh many degrees worse than that. But I do think people can access those topics the most quickly because it's the easiest for them to understand. Like as opposed to tax policy or whatever. Right, right, right, right. So I do want to just as we'cause we're gonna close out with just a little bit more uh

The Epstein story kind of rhymes with some of the more exotic conspiracy theories we've heard over the years, like Pizzagate. And I wanna talk the Pizzagate has been coming back up and they talked about Pizzagate and other conspiracy theories. Let's listen.

You know, and but it was like the it was the most insane thought that, you know, people thought you were insane if you thought any like all these people, you think that there's people on both sides of the aisle like, you know Doing this you know how like involved in these activities and it's like yeah.

rational or sane-minded person would be like, you know, well, hold up here. What what what what do what are we talking about here? What what what do you need 187, you know, hot dogs for? Like it's just very, very, very, very bizarre.

When you do these focus groups, you just realize how wild the information environment is and what people are choosing to like ingest. That's right.

May not come from good place, right? They did and or and or we just can't remember where we got it from. So I I absolutely.

I only believe it if it comes from this place. Or everything you receive, you believe there is underneath it all an ulterior motive. Right. And so I think that is some of the way that the human brain has to try to manage this onslaught of information that washes over S And it's just another reminder of how challenging it is for candidates, for campaigns, for media organizations to get the truth and get facts and get information out.

and get it to penetrate through all of this stuff. And, you know, it is uh uh why the the fact that we don't have guardrails and we don't have the referees any longer. There is no people talk to me about, well, the media. Well, who's the media anymore? I don't know what that means. People are forced to kind of be their own referees. And that leaves a lot of room for these sorts of conspiracy theories to bubble up. Normally, when the conversation is about Nephoria.

various stories or conspiracies. We had, of course, all of the Hillary Clinton and the laptop. and the emails and we had the Hunter Biden laptop. It defaulted to the benefit of Donald Trump. Now it is not. And that's that's what's different.

But this is one of the reasons that the Epstein stuff is so potent in my mind. Is that guy what he said was, What is the difference between a conspiracy theory and the truth? And he said, six months. Ah, I've heard that before. I people sort of say that in groups. It's a it's a funny thing because the Epstein.

Saga is proof to a lot of these guys. Like what you're saying is like, yeah, Pizzagate wasn't quite right. They weren't right that it was in this basement of Comet Ping Pong, which by the way, great, great pizza place in DC. Uh Great place if you have ki kids too. Play ping pong. Uh but it's not happening there.

But it did happen. Uh now, to be fair, most of the right wing conspiracies about this though also included like Hillary Clinton and like the skin of babies, and I can't even remember about all of the insane things. I what I what is interesting is that these guys are kind of circling around something which is like, oh no, our guys were the bad guys. Or who were like the Trump was with Epstein. I think that that's part of the, again, when I talk about it settling, is I do think that

People are starting to as it it comes and floods in, they're not immediately willing to reject Trump on it. But as it is settled with people, they're like, I don't know what else to make of this other than he was part of this somehow. Um and so, but that to them makes it seem like Well see, see, this conspiracy theories, they might not be exactly right on all the details, but they are directionally correct, which makes every subsequent conspiracy seem more legitimate.

One last thing, uh, here. I have long warned that the MAGA establishments, sort of the JD Vance of the world, are gonna have a hard time keeping people like this engaged and in the tent in a post-Trump world. Um when as you like look out ahead, how do you think that the right grapples with a coalition that's so disengaged and mistrustful that it doesn't even trust MAGA?

All American boy grew up having a hard life. He can relate to regular people. One woman said, Oh, I don't like Trump. I don't like MAGA, but I really like Usha, right? It was all about she she is the reason. His wife is the whole reason that I would support him. So in that sense, he does have something of an identity outside of MAGA, right? He was this guy who grew up in Appalachia

the, you know, pull yourself up by your bootstraps piece attracts them. At the same time, there is a weariness and a wariness. of what the Republican Party has become or what it will be or what uh even what it is right now. Um that gives them a pause. You know, so this is I mean look, it makes a lot of sense, Sarah, that this is a group of people who have soured on Donald Trump. So they're not gonna be like, Yeah, let's go get his vice president and put them put him in office.

Or let's go take Marco Rubio, his current Secretary of State, who's Overseeing the thing in Iran that we don't like. So we're getting them at a time where they would be least likely. to be supportive of somebody that comes from the Trump administration. But I do think overall the what what we're coming to see is the challenge of keeping together the coalition that elected Donald Trump.

Even as he's president, right? He's having a hard time as president keeping that coalition together. Now imagine. coming from that administration and trying to get those people to come out and vote.

I may not be sold on whoever is the person who supposedly is the next Donald Trump or the one who's gonna wear the MAGA. crown. Um, that is a tough thing to pull off.

of Trump being able to singularly hold this coalition together and him being gone in some way, probably still around, uh whatever. But The Republican Party having to deal with the fact that Trump has spent will have spent more than a decade teaching their voters to hate the party and only love him. Is just if the Democrats could just figure out how to get there in a few places.

Uh they could figure out how to make sure people felt like Democrats would keep them safe, uh where they had sort of a hey, we're and this isn't about being more moderate or more progressive. It is about Democrats feeling like they have a a propulsive direction. They they know what they stand for. They are they are pushing popular issues. They are focused on the economy and working class again.

The extent to which the thing that we started with, the challenge of the map, the way that that could be seized. In this moment when Republicans just these kinds of voters are super disenchanted with the party and the Trump people who are just there for Trump now aren't interested because Trump's not there. that whole thing could collapse. Like there's a world in which and it's not not even a crazy world.

There was a real chance that that coalition collapses and a lot of people up for grabs. The question is, can you go grab'em? And that's gonna be the challenge for Democrats, and that's what I tried to to deal with in the book. All right, Amy Walter. Thank you so much for joining us for the seventh time.