The Exchange

Countdown to the Fed Decision, Rising Rate Play, and the ‘Scariest’ Bear Cases in Tech 10/31/23

Just over 24 hours until the Fed’s decision on interest rates. We look ahead to tomorrow’s meeting and the fallout for stocks and bonds. Plus, mortgage rates remain near multi-year highs, but that’s a silver lining for the nation’s largest home-loan service. The CEO will join us with his read on the health of housing. And in the spirit of Halloween, we’re looking at the scariest hypothetical bear cases in tech.

Slowdown Low-down, XPO’s Big Beat, Scary Consumer? 10/30/23

We have fresh signs that the economy is slowing, and hedge fund manager Kyle Bass says things are about to slow a lot more from here. He’ll join us with the biggest risks and opportunities he sees in the market right now. Plus, XPO shares are soaring on the back of earnings. The CEO is here with his read on the freight market. And the CEO of Spirit Halloween joins us ahead of the big day with his take on the consumer, commercial real estate, and the trends he’s seeing this year.

Data Delusion?, The View from Vanguard, and Health of Housing 10/27/23

Our panel debates the latest economic data, and whether it suggests the consumer is not as strong as investors think. Plus, a rare and exclusive interview with Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley on how he’s approaching the market, as the world’s second-largest asset manager. And how are homebuilders navigating this new high-interest-rate environment? We get the read on housing from the CEO of Tri Pointe Homes, fresh off their results.

The Fed’s Next Move, Buy or Beware?, and Rate Resilience 10/26/23

The latest data show the economy remains resilient – and so does the consumer. What does it all mean for the market and the Fed? We speak with one economist about her forecast. Plus, our market guest says the recent pullback in tech provides a good entry point, but there’s one way to play it. He’ll tell us how, and what else he’s buying outside of tech right now. And Empire State Realty Trust’s CEO joins us fresh off earnings with what’s driving the stock higher, and his read on the New York Cit...

Can You Hear Me Now, Downturn Resiliency, and Get the Government 10/25/23

Three months after a bold call, our market guest rejoins us to take a “quarter-victory lap” and look ahead to the next opportunity. Plus, we’ll speak with the CEO of one travel company that’s benefitting from one key consumer trend that they expect to withstand an economic slowdown. And while homebuilders have been buying down mortgage rates to make homes more affordable, the calls for the government to step in are getting louder. Our strategist tells us how that approach would work and how like...

Hedge Hawk, 100% Wrong?, and Good Problems 10/24/23

Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman covered his bet against bonds, but our market guest is not buying into that move. Plus, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says central banks have been “100% dead wrong” on economic forecasts and it doesn’t matter if the Fed hikes again. Is he right? We’ll ask former Fed vice chair Randy Quarles. And Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa are on deck with results. Our trader says one of them has a lot of problems… but good ones. He’ll explain in Earnings Exchange.

Equity-like Returns, Fiscal Dominance, and Commercial Real Estate Pivot 10/23/23

A big drop in bond yields after the 10-year started the day back above 5%, but the recent climb led our portfolio manger to say bonds can achieve equity-like returns over the next 18 months. She’ll tell us where she’s seeing opportunities now. Plus, one economist is sounding the alarm that government spending could overwhelm the Fed’s inflation fight. And the co-CEO of Morgan Stanley’s real estate arm is here to break down her strategy in the face of higher yields – and what she’s seeing for opp...

From the Desk of Kelly Evans: Who's the PIIG now? 10/23/23

Kelly discusses trouble brewing in the banking system.

Yields Hit 5%, Now What? The Data the Fed Should be Using, and Harker’s Case Against Rate Hikes 10/20/23

The yield on the 10-year note hit 5% for the first time in 16 years, a five-star fund manager gives us his duration timeline. Why consumer is even stronger than you may think, and the hidden tax break for homeowners. Plus, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker has a very specific reason for keeping rates where they are.

From the Desk of Kelly Evans: The Fed has THREE mandates 10/20/23

Kelly explains why the Fed has obligations beyond its "dual mandate.”

The Exchange 10/19/23

Listen to the day's top stories, the must reads & a whole lot more for today's modern investor.

The House Divided, Biden’s Israel Visit, and Regionals & Rates 10/18/23

The House divided. Jim Jordan comes up short in his second vote to secure the Speaker gavel. A top Republican strategist tells us how this should really be resolved. Plus, President Biden visits Israel. He’s pledging an "unprecedented" support package for the country...even as Congress remains leaderless. And have you seen what's happening with bond yields? It's a major headache for banks – and the CEO of Hancock Whitney says that the historic move in yields is pressuring both consumer and comme...

What’s Next for Yields, Sentiment Slump, Salaries Surge 10/17/23

Better than expected economic data is pushing yields back toward their recent highs. We’ll ask our strategist how he’s adjusting his portfolio. Plus, homebuilder sentiment sliding to 10-month lows, but our analyst is staying positive ahead of next week’s earnings and tells us why. And salaries could be higher for longer – keeping the Fed in that mode as well.

The $630B Question, The Bitcoin Binary, and Earnings Exchange 10/16/23

Is inflation blinding investors to a potential fiscal crisis? We have two heavyweights on the controversial topic. Plus, bitcoin crossing above $30,000 for the first time in months. We’ll ask former CFTC Chairman Tim Massan about the path forward for regulation. And the second half of big bank earnings are on deck tomorrow. We have the action the story and the trade on two big names, plus Johnson & Johnson and Lockheed Martin.

Seeking Safety, Crude’s Climb, Curbing the Run in Rates 10/13/23

Stocks are struggling, and gold is rallying as investors seek safety. Plus, oil climbing as the U.S. tightens sanctions against Russia. And mortgage rates are near 23-year highs, leading one former Obama official to suggest the government step in and curb the run in rates.

The Exchange 10/12/23

Listen to the day's top stories, the must reads & a whole lot more for today's modern investor.

The Exchange 10/11/23

Israel-Hamas War, The Hunt for Yield, and Leaderless House 10/10/23

We’re breaking down the geopolitical fallout from the Israel-Hamas war ahead of President Biden’s speech. Plus, could the 10-year yield be headed to 4% as the “earnings recession” is about to end? We’ll debate. And what are the consequences of a House of Representatives with no Speaker? AEI’s James Pethokoukis joins us to dig into that.

Geopolitical Turmoil, Peltz vs. Disney, and Utilities Opportunities 10/9/23

Stocks stage a reversal this hour as Israel’s conflict with Hamas enters its third day. We’ll look at what the unrest means for the region and for energy prices. Plus, activist investor Nelson Peltz is reigniting his proxy fight with Disney. And one analyst says investors should “close their eyes and buy” some utility stocks. She’ll join us with her top picks.

Reversing Course, Mortgage Mania, and Airlines Grounded 10/6/23

Stocks are staging a big reversal since this morning’s jobs report. We’ll look at the implication for yields and your money. Plus, mortgage rates are shooting higher, nearing 8 percent. And with earnings season around the corner, one analyst is slashing his estimates and price targets on a number of headwinds. He’ll join us to make his case.

The Exchange 10/5/23

Listen to the day's top stories, the must reads & a whole lot more for today's modern investor.

Fed Fallacy?, Rising Rates Bail, and Two Cents on the Dollar 10/4/23

The one weapon the Fed has to pull off a soft landing could be backfiring. Companies with a ton of debt could be dead on arrival in this new high-interest-rate environment. And Chartmaster Carter Worth joins us to chime in on the Dollar as it hits an 11-month high.

Crypto & Consumers, $9B AI Tool, Weighing the Trades 10/3/23

Two big legal cases concerning the fate of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and the CFPB. We’ve got the latest developments on each. Plus, is Microsoft’s new $9B AI tool worth the hype? And the weight-loss drug boom is having major ripple effects on stocks. We’ll look at one buy and one bail as a result of the craze.

Bond Voyage, Trash Talk, Take Shelter 10/2/23

The 10-year yield is hitting its highest level since 2007, and our market guest still sees opportunities in bonds ahead of a recession. Plus, Birkenstock is preparing for its IPO. VC Sam Lessin joins us with what the IPO market means for Silicon Valley and beyond. And a bullish call on a housing name one analyst says is well positioned for a slowdown.

It Might Just Be the Everything Shutdown 9/29/23

With the government just two days away from a shutdown, we look at how it could impact everything from economic data to the IPO market. EV manufacturing one of the issues driving the UAW strike, and it could have big implications not just on the big three, but Tesla too, according to Barclays. Plus, a key childcare pandemic subsidy also expiring this weekend, which could have a big impact not just on daycare centers, but the US economy.

Charting Returns, Strikes & Stocks, and Demand Destruction 9-28-23

The biggest returns against a backdrop of soaring yields and oil prices, according to one 5-star fund manager. Plus, another strike looms over the economy – this time in the health care space. We’ll speak with the union rep about the negotiations and look at the stocks that could be at risk. And on private lender sees “demand destruction” the current environment. He’ll join us from CNBC’s “Delivering Alpha” to explain.

The Value Names to Buy Now, Cannabis and Capital, and the Everything Shutdown 9/27/23

Value has taken a back seat to growth for the past 15 years, but the tide may be turning—we get the names to buy and hold onto for the long-term. The Senate Banking Committee passes a key piece of legislation for the cannabis industry. Plus…is the government shutdown about spending? Border security? The war in Ukraine? Why one policy analyst calls this the “Seinfeld shutdown.”

Economic Pressure Points, Real Estate Magnate Don Peebles, and Consumer Credit Risk 9/26/23

Between rising rates, the UAW strike, and a potential government shutdown, we’ve got every economic pressure point covered for investors. Plus, real estate magnate Don Peebles joins us to weigh in on the health of the housing market and commercial real estate, including the one city where he’s waiting to see a wave of defaults before buying up properties. And Bank of America is slashing their estimates on a pair of department stores on rising consumer risks. You won’t believe the shocking number...

From the Desk of Kelly Evans: The $2 trillion deficit: how did we get here? 9/25/23

Kelly opines on the soaring national debt.

From the Desk of Kelly Evans: Who is really raising rates in Washington? 9/25/23

Kelly explains why the Fed isn’t to blame for interest rates rising here.