Special thanks to our next guest as we go from one goat to the next goat for being a little bit adjustable today and versatile today. Tom Haberstrow for some NBA basketball to Monday Tom, Happy Monday man.
How are we doing doing great?
Man?
How I'm good? I'm good. So we'll do a little jazz here.
We're not gonna do We're not gonna do a ton of jazz because I think we all kind of know what time it is, we all kind of know what.
The deal is.
But I'll say this, over the past seven or eight games, at least offensively they don't guard anybody, they just don't.
But offensively they've been a lot better.
And I thought that went over the Knicks on Saturday here in Salt Lake was probably the best game I've seen him play all year long. But what are your thoughts on and if you have anything specific about the past seven or eight games, why is the offense look so much better?
To think, Well, first of all, marketing helps. Ye, that guy is really good, and of course really good against the Knicks too. But I think another thing that you have to really pay attention to is the shot selection is very modern. NBA We've got a head coach and Will Hardy, who is as astute as it is when it comes to what is the best way to win in today's NBA. And what I mean by that is the Utah Jazz are the leaders in one category offensively that probably is a little under the radar, but I
just wrote about this at Yahoo Sports. There are these things that I'll coin as shot desert games. These are games in which teams do not make a single shot in the mid range. They don't take a single shot, make a single shot, they don't score in the mid range.
They just abandon it. And while it is for us who grew up in the nineties, it is kind of sad to see how the mid range game is dead, but it is the smart way to play, just in the same way that in baseball, the smart way to play is to try to hit it over the fence
and get walks. And it might not be appealing for a product standpoint, it is what the math tells us to do, and what the math tells NBA teams to do is what the Boston Celtics did last season is bomb away from three and attack the rim and go for rim attacks and the Jazz lead the league in most games in which they don't score from the mid range. You normally might say, hey, that's a bad thing. Well, no, the mid range game is kind of a dead zone.
It's you don't get fouled, it's a low percentage shot, and there's only a few players that it makes sense to be living in the mid range, whether it's Chris Paul or jamar Derozen and the Utah Jazz continually do this, and even you know, in Saturday's game against the Knicks, they scored one hundred and twenty one points and only one basket was in the mid range. And they have more shot desert games than any other team. It's four to this point in the season, and this number is
exploding league wide. You know, we didn't even have a single team a decade ago with any of these games. And now we're on pace for about one hundred and fifty desert games where they don't score from the mid range for the entire game. And so we're almost double what we're you know, we're pacing at almost double the rate at what we normally see over the last couple
of years, and there's a real inflection point. We're seeing in the NBA where team smart offenses, even if they're not being able to make all the shots from downtown. You know, it's it's not every night that you see the Jazz shoot. You know, what was it seventeen nineteen
to thirty four, fifty six percent from downtown. But this is kind of by design, is that they have made the team buy into this, you know, threes and rim shots, you know, attacking the basket and not worrying so much about the mid range, try to get to the free throw line, try to take threes, and so far, I think that shot profile is really helping them slim the talent gap. And you saw it on Saturday night, just how good they look when the three ball is falling.
But it's not a matter of being lucky. This is a team that is designed that way and the offense is designed that way, and I think it's really smart, even if it's a little sad for us watching and growing up watching Michael Jordan. This is the way to win in today's NBA, and they're doing an excellent.
Job of it. So do you think the league will look?
Because I read your piece and that's kind of why I asked you the question to lead you into that answer, so you could explain it to our listeners because you unpacked it better than I could. But the fact of the matter is, you know, you and I will watch NBA basketball, but a lot of people aren't.
The ratings are suffering. I don't know if it's the product.
I continue to believe until stars show up every single night, you know, unless we got to say it, unless they're hurt, I know, but you can't argue with the numbers. And yes, they can throw their P and L statement at me and say where's the problem?
I say, Okay, I get it.
But do you think the decline in NBA rings as because nobody wants to just watch a team, you know, shoot sixty plus threes. Nobody wants to, you know, watch a three point shooting shooting contest unless it's during All Star weekend, And as numbers tell us, people don't really like to watch that either. Does the league have a problem with this style of play that you outline in your piece? Do you think they look to do something about it?
I think they're always looking to do something about it. I mean, this is a This is the same league office that introduced the in season Tournament, the play in Tournament, as well as the elam Ending and the All Star, the NBA draft for the All Star. They're trying to figure out ways to augment or gimmick or gamify the season. And I don't think that they're you know, the shot selection is off the table in terms of how do we adjustice to make it more appealing for the audiences.
And I think, you know, Nick Wright, the kind of the reason why I did that story was Nick Right went on his podcast. You know, it wasn't on Fox Sports one, but it was on his podcast that it went viral where he was like, the India has as a as an entertainment problem is that it's not as entertaining as it used to be, and a lot of that is because of all the threes. And he suggested the idea of making dunks worth three points. That was
one of his proposals. And I think it gets at something that I think we do need to consider is should we make the mid range alive again and make more shot diversity where it doesn't feel like it's just threes and rim attacks every time down the floor. My suggestion is this two three four system where you shortened the three point line to about fifteen feet to bring back the mid range, and then you extend the current three point line to a four point line at about
thirty five or forty feet. You make it far enough that it's a real challenge for NBA players to hit it. So it's not just gonna be a bunch of do who is pulling up from half court every time. But you also want players to want to go to the rim, to want to shoot from twenty feet, and want to shoot from forty feet if it makes sense, And so I think that proposal is one of my favorites that
I've heard. There's also, and I talk about this in the piece, the idea of do we get rid of the corner three so that you don't have two guys standing in the corners and then getting a short, shorter shot because the NBA dimensions make it such that the corner three is about a foot shorter than a normal three, and so there's an advantage there. Get rid of that
advantage and you won't see as many three pointers. There's another idea that I've heard is capping the number of three pointers that you make or take sorry to about twenty per quarter, So basically you have like or sorry, twenty per game, so you have basically twenty three pointers to play around with, and then after that any three
pointer is worth two points. All those ideas are getting to the same trying to solve this problem, which is it feels like the NBA is all about threes and all that rim attacks and some of the creativity and ingenuity and spontaneity of the NBA that might have been around in the eighties and nineties it might be overstated. How you know, the x's and o's were amazing, and the game was amazing because of this, A lot of those games were just they were It was wrestling. It
was a different sport. It was not the same thing as what we're seeing today, and in a bad way. So I'm not saying that everything was perfect in nineteen ninety five. It wasn't. But the idea of there's too many threes and it might be repelling some people from watching the sport, I understand that viewpoint, but I don't think that making dunks worth three points is the answer.
I think it'll make more injuries because of you know, it's a violent sport already, but making it a dunk worth three points would only increase the mid air collisions and you'll see Chet Holmgrens of the world land horribly and be out because of a broken hip. I think that would be more commonplace in a league with a
three point dunk. But I do think I think bringing back some shot diversity and bringing back the mid range in a way that makes sense, I think could go a long way to bringing back some viewers who feel like this game is just make or miss from downtown and that's going to dictate everything is whether my team made threes, and certainly the Utah Jazz on Saturday night we're evidence of that is how good they look when those threes are dropping. But some other nights it's pretty hard to watch.
What do you most attribute the lack of solid ratings to, Tom, Maybe it's just this, Maybe it's just this, And look, historically speaking, it's been a number of years since pro basketball was even within a earshot of Pro football, and this time of year, most everybody that are sports fans are you know, they're watching football, college and pro. Sunday Night football is the highest rated television show in our country not sporting a d television show.
So we will see the numbers improve come, you.
Know, February January, February when bowl seasons behind us, the Super Bowls behind us. But it's undy liviable that these NBA ratings like the first couple of weeks like whatever. But now we've got to sample size. We're approaching Thanksgiving where some of the time slots are down as much as like thirty forty percent. This is not five or six percent. Why do you think people are watching pro basketball right now?
Well, I think large majority of that slide is due to the absence of Stars, And you hit on it in the beginning, and I'll just give you this that games missed by Stars is up fifty two percent compared to last year, fifty two percent increase. Through fifteen games of the season, we've had one hundred and fifty two injuries, and last year at this point there was one hundred
games lost due to injury. So last year we had one hundred games lost due to injury for Stars, and now we're looking at one hundred and fifty two over that same time period. So what we're seeing is, you know, a nice return of stars, say Murray, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beale, chrisafsperzingis. These guys are coming back, but a lot of players are not that. Luca Dncrich is out for a week. You have Joel Embiid, who knows what's happening with that guy.
Kawhi Leonard is still out for the season. Chris Middleton, we have no real, real timetable for his return. And we're seeing star players miss at extreme rates compared to
the recent history. And I think there's this there's this happy medium between being smart and being good business smart, right, Like there's smart in the medical sense of like, hey, we're holding out these players because we don't want to hurt them for the long run, or we're having preventative treatments so that you know, this knee brain doesn't turn into a torny acl I get that, but also there
has to be a happy meeting between that. And we're seeing now where injuries or games lost due to injury or absences are up fifty two percent, and so you know, it's not good for business to have a Thursday night game without any stars. Or have you know the Clippers playing the Sixers in the opening week of the season and only Paul George is playing. You got no Joelle Embiid,
no Tyrese Maxey, no Paul George, no Kawhi Leonard. And that's not good for the sport, not just for that night, but also the message it sends to potential viewers is, oh, I'm going to watch this Sixers Clippers game. Wait a minute, those guys aren't playing, ah man, Like this is just another game where the NBA stars aren't playing. That can
kind of really poison the well. And I'm hoping that this avalanche of injuries is really coming to an end here because we are seeing some players come back this week, which is really good for the NBA Cup. The NBA Cup is coming up, and I really hope that we have a full, you know, roster of star players because this is a star league and when you know injuries or games lost, Dude, injury to star players is up fifty two. That's about as much of an explainer as.
Anything well said. Good stuff.
Let me go back to the Jazz for a moment and uh just kind of kick the tires with you on some potential storylines and topics you know, this year, and they took a big step back with their developmental program after Taylor broke his leg. Poor kid, because he came back in great shape and he's looking pretty good.
Marketing cannot be traded.
Maybe all I need to say to real NBA fans about who the jazz are is John Collins might have been. They might be their best players so far. Maybe maybe that's all you need to know. But you know, certainly Danny Aing's Justin Zannik open for business at all times. Do you think any of these vets are going to be on the move, because there is part when I like, when watching the Nick game, I'm thinking, all right, Marketing's back, you know, here we go again.
Are they going to start winning a little?
Because Lowry's that good and when they're hitting shots like they were, they have the ability to win some games, which I they very much do not want them to do. I've been on that page for two years, as you know, Tom, So I'm bring on the losing, Like when they started losing big, you know, like where it seemed to be pretty obvious that they were leaning into this development. They started losing, and I felt better about their direction that
I have in two years. But you think we're gonna see Danny and Justin maybe break this down to like if they start winning tom if they go on some run, whether they win like twelve of fourteen, which I do not believe that they will do. But if they do that, will they start breaking this down prior to the February deadline this time?
Yeah, it's just the perverse incentive structure of the NBA, right, is that we're rooting. If you're a Jazz fan, you're conflicted. You're rooting for them to lose because they might give them the best chance at a star in that market. It might be the best route, the best path to getting a foundational star. But it's also you look at
the Detroit Pistons. You look at for so long, the Sacramento King the Minnesota Timberwolves when they got Andrew Wiggins, and then only saw, you know, all of that mediocrity to continue under Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony Towns, and it's like, we got two number one overall picks and we're still not anywhere until they moved Andrew Wiggins and then they got Rudy Gobert and of course Anthony Edwards another number one overall pick. It's not it's more art
than science how to build a championship team. But the problem is that the incentives are right there is you have more ping pong balls if you are not good, and so I think that will be the you know, telling factor is how much they got to be in the bottom five. But it doesn't have to be necessarily the worst team. But I think if they're going to be record wise, you know, on that five to six, you know, bottom of five six teams, I think that'll be enough to you know, give them a solid shot
at a star in the draft. But you know, the question is you look at a team like the Houston Rockets, where there now as have won as many teams. And I wrote about this for a Tomdefiner dot com I substack. They're twelve and six right now, and they've built through the draft. You look at Alphera and Shane gun Jalen Green, Amen Thompson Reed, Shepherd's glued to the bench because there's just so many good young players on that Teamtari Easton's
been fantastic for them. They made one signing right there with Fred van Vliet, and he's kind of set the tone for the locker room and that is a model for the Utah Jazz. Is like building, it's going to take a few years, but building through the draft and seeing where it gets them, but you have to hit. And the Houston Rockets, the Oklahoma City Thunder, they've built through the draft in a way that is a nice model for Houston, but you have to make sure you
nail those picks. And so for the Jazz it's like, yeah, we can build through the draft, but if we don't get Cooper Flag in the draft, will this be all for not? And unfortunately the NBA, for a small mart the team, the odds are not great to begin with, and the odds that might be best if you build through the draft like OKAC and Houston has and hope you can nail those picks and you can get an Alpera and Shane Gun. You can get a check Holme
Grin or a Jalen Williams. But the history of the NBA shows you know you need a superstar and probably two or three of them in order to win a championship. And for Utah, it's just gonna be really hard to bring one in without having enough bites at the apple at the.
Top before I set you loose, because I know you got to go, and if you need to go quick, Just be quick, quick with the answer.
But here's the thing.
I've never considered anybody to be able to win a quote triple crown in pro basketball because I simply thought it was entirely impossible. And Nikola Jokich is second in rebounding right now, he's second in assists.
Uh no't excuse me.
He leads the league in rebounding, he's second in scoring, and he's second in assists, and he's shooting like forty three percent from three. Maybe we're numb to it, but he strikes me as like this virtue. Also, who's mastered the cello and wants to retire and go do something else. What do you make of what we could potentially see with the Jokics this year?
I hate to correct you, but I'm only doing it because I love you, and because it's even funnier. The stat is, Yoki isn't shooting forty three percent from downtown. He's shooting fifty six.
Oh my gosh, I must have had the wrong stat that's insane.
Say fifty six percent spence from downtown and it's you know, do you have to qualify it? I'm not so sure he qualifies right now. Just because of the games played from the three point standpoint, but fifty six percent from downtown first and rebounding not quite like you said, not quite assists and points right now, but he's right in
the mix of it. I never thought i'd see anything like that, But then again, I thought i'd never see Lebron James score forty thousand points, and I thought i'd never see someone break off for Robertson's triple double record, and then basically Russell Bosper did it three times. So I can't put it past Jokich. He's a virtuo. So he is the best player in the NBA, and I don't think it's particularly.
Close this season.
I don't know if you'll have the volume or he'll continue to shoot that well from downtown, but it's all things are possible with that guy. He is a savant. He is the chosen one in terms of like basketball skill, and he's got incredible hands. He's second in the NBA in deflections. We're not even talking about those steals and block numbers for Jokic, but he's second in the NBA
in deflections per game, behind Dyson Daniels. Which no one realizes is that he's just got these ridiculous myths that not just has the touch but also just the hand eye coordinations ridiculous. And so Jokich is incredible. He's my pick, easy pick for MVP at this point. And it's certainly within the realm possibility that he could have that triple crown so to speak, and points, rebounds and assists. But also that three point percentage is in sane fifty six percent unbelievable.
Heading back to the motherland Tommy tomorrow.
So I'll pay my respects to the great I'm sure Tom Haberstrow statue that's outside of Staples High School at some point.
So have a great thanksgiving, my friend, Thank you for the time. Okay, you too.
And I'll just say this. Charlotte, where I live, they just announced Dave Matthews band is going to headline a festival here. So I'm already trying to get in line for tickets.
Stop it, I'm gonna I'm gonna fly out. We'll go to a Dave show together. Let's do it, dude, come me in there.
It is Tom Haberstrow, the Great Tom Haberstrow, one of my favorite NBA guests. All of his work he's very busy. He's about to go record a podcast. He does like five a week. Tom Thefiner dot com is a substack. He writes a column for Yahoos Sports, and he's on the Blazers broadcast team. My man has like seven jobs at Tom haberstrow is where you find him