It's @TomHaberstroh on NBA ratings slump, Jazz draft positioning + more - podcast episode cover

It's @TomHaberstroh on NBA ratings slump, Jazz draft positioning + more

Dec 16, 202429 min
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Episode description

Catch “The Drive with Spence Checketts” from 2 pm to 6 pm weekdays on ESPN 700 & 92.1 FM. Produced by Porter Larsen. The latest on the Utah Jazz, Real Salt Lake, Utes, BYU + more sports storylines.

Transcript

Speaker 2

Monday afternoon.

Speaker 1

Mister statistician face Man, as he's known on social media we know him around here, is the great Tom Haberstrow.

Speaker 2

Tom. Happy Monday, my guy. How are we doing doing?

Speaker 3

Great man? How are you?

Speaker 2

I'm well, I'm well. I'm good. I'm good. So we do have I suppose if.

Speaker 1

You're going to, you know, make this NBA Cup thing a reality, you could do worse than Bucks thunder Correct as the final. So we've got a pretty exciting NBA Cup Finals matchup. I wonder how many people care about it, but give me your thoughts on what will be the final matchup of this year's Emirates shout out to the sponsor NBA Cup.

Speaker 3

I love this matchup because I love what Chris Middleton brings to this Bucks team and the fact that he's back and healthy is a much needed positive story from what seems to be an injury rattled season, beleaguered season of NBA star injuries. And Chris Middleton is finally back from his double ankle surgery in the offseason and the Bucks are whole at the right time. I wrote about it on Tom Thefinder dot com this morning. Is you know this this season has been a nightmare season from

an injury perspective for NBA Stars. At one point, NBA Stars had missed fifty one percent more games than they did last year, which is astounding. You know, at this time last year, a couple of weeks ago, when I was on this program talking about it, the increase in number of game absences from star players had reached an increase of fifty one percent. And luckily there have been some returns. You've got Dejan sat Murray, who's not an A list NBA celebrity, but Chris Middleton has come back.

And when you see the Milwaukee Bucks play, he does so much for them. And so look, it's not the marquee matchup that I think a lot of NBA fans are clamoring for. But I'm telling you, Spence, I think this okac Thunder team they should be on national TV every week. They are that fun to watch. They have

that much kind of wholesome homegrown talent. If you watch their postgame press conferences on the floor at the podium, they are everything that I think NBA fans of your claim that the NBA isn't about, that is what the Oklahoma City Thunder are. They are elite. Defensively, they're in the talks statistically for the best defense in NBA history, the way that they defend and the turnover rate. Isaiah Hartenstein has been a perfect fit next to Shay Gilders,

Alexander and Jalen Williams. And the fact that it isn't a marquee team in the NBA despite having the number two guy in the MVP vote last year and having the number one seed in the Western Conference. The fact that Okac is not going to be on Christmas Day is it's a real travesty for the NBA fan because

I do think that this Thunder team is electric. They're the next big team, and they were the next big teams as recently as last year this time last year, and yet I think that NBA fans aren't excited about this matchup and they should be. You know, the Dame Janice and Middleton Jannis is playing some of the best basketball of his career and the Thunder are twenty and five with a points afferential that points them as being one of the greatest teams that we've ever seen in

the NBA. I'm telling you, like they are at that level, that caliber team even without ched Holmgren, and it just I don't know, Like you said, the buzz doesn't seem to be there for Tuesday nights matchup, and it really is a shame because I think that it should be. It should have a lot of buzz, a lot of hoopla, because the Thunder and the Bucks deserve it right now.

Speaker 2

Tom, I promise I will not revisit this every week.

Speaker 1

But the fact of the matter is, I don't feel like the legue has buzz right now, and I don't know how much of that is football.

Speaker 2

I don't know how to like you.

Speaker 1

Sports Business Journal wrote a piece last week I references to start the show, and you know, the local perspective is simply this, like whenever there has been a compelling basketball product around here, people have shown up, people have consumed the content, and people are interested, whether it's Utah basketball, nder Rick manjaris BYU basketball just signed the best recruit in the country. I AJ Debantsh's coming to Provo next year,

so folks excited about that. And when the Jazz have been either really good or with a very clear direction of players that play hard with precision, people show up and play. But I will take advantage of having a smart guy on the show to ask you why you think that this thing simply is going in the wrong direction when it comes to interest of its typical consumers.

Speaker 3

I think part of it is that Lebron and Steph are still here, you know. I think part of it is that is the idea that, you know, the NBA has been slow to invest in the next great star because Lebron and Steph are still here, and until you can't go to that, you know, that mom and pop store downtown anymore, you'd probably take it for granted that like, one day that's going to close up shop, and that you're going to be looking around town being like, where am I going to get food? Where am I going

to go? Me and my friends, and Lebron and Steph are still here at that age. You know, Lebron's turning forty here and Steph is getting approaching those years. And I just did the math. The number one team in national television appearances this year is the Los Angeles Lakers with twenty seven. Okay, they're a playing team. They might not even make the play in tournament, Okay. The number two team, tied with the Boston Celtics, is the Golden

State Warriors. Okay, the NBA is still marketing this league as a Lebron and Steph league, and I get it. They just came off Paris Olympics. Their teams are hailing from huge markets in LA and the Bay Area. But there are real business decisions being made that lead to the Oklahoma City Thunder being this exciting that they play an amazing brand of basketball. They defend their tails off. They have a superstar in Shay Gildris Alexander that just slices up the defense and he's this fashion icon off

the floor. And they're the eighth most marquee team in terms of national television games this year, behind the Philadelphia seventy six ers. And I think the NBA has to invest more in Anthony Edwards, in the Oklahoma City Thunder, in Victor Wemba Nyama, this next group. They have to put them in front of the national audience and market them as the next great thing. There just isn't that buzz around Anthony Edwards and Jahn Morant and Shay Gildos

Alexander and Victor wembin Yama, but there should be. They should be on the same pedestal as Steph and Lebron in terms of marquee national TV audiences, but the TV partners have chosen elsewhere, and I think a lot of it has to do with the decisions to at the national TV level. And I also think just the conversation

around the NBA is pretty rotten right now. It's like, if you turn on NBA coverage at the national level, it's a lot of complaining and a lot of you know, Steph and Lebron and negativity, and a lot of that is because the stars aren't playing as much as they used to, and that's a problem. But I think a lot of this is we have to put these teams on national TV and invest in this. Even if you take a little ratings hit now, Lebron and stepths can't play forever. And I do think that the league has

to feature these guys nationally. It'll a lot better and market them a lot better, because it really is, you know, we've taken Lebron and Steph for granted in some ways that we continue to roll them out on national TV and not investing in the next wave of NBA stars.

Speaker 1

A lot of good stuff in there, and I do want to be clear, you are spot on about OKC. You know, watch the Jazz Okase game like a week and a half ago. Defensively, they're like and I keep drawing the parallel to NFL safeties, they're like ballhawks and the Jazz aren't good, but they couldn't get any.

Speaker 2

Action going consistently.

Speaker 1

And there are compelling teams and very good players, and what Sam Presty has done in OKAC to make them excellent now with a bevy of assets to continue that excellence moving forward. And of course there's always the scenario of when players decide they want to get paid because he had Durant Westbrook and hardened there at once and couldn't make that thing last. So there are plenty of compelling stories and plenty of talent outside of Stephan Lebron.

But one more thing here, because you know the fact of the matter is Tom and you know this. The revenue streams the NBA creates internationally allows them to I'm not going to say turn a blind eye to the domestic ratings, but it allows them to make up a lot of that income, those revenue streams that maybe could be sacrificed a little bit with dipping ratings domestically you know, soccer is the number one game in the world, but

basketball is number two. Soccer is the global game, and basketball moves the needle in China, which we all learned with the tight lipped nature of folks after the Darryl Mory tweet, and then in Europe in a way that

football just doesn't. So is the expedited nature of their profit and loss statements because of the international money enough for them to kind of turn a blind eye to what is clearly now a trend of dipped domestic ratings or is that bad for business and they need to figure something out well?

Speaker 3

I think also you're hitting on something that is a big piece of this that we haven't talked about is the gambling aspect. You know, so much of the oxygen on air and I've been a part of this too, is devoted to the bets of the night, the parlays of the night, and you have you know, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith on every broadcast talking their their their pips. And the same thing with ESPN bet is that the TV partners that are currently existing are trying to push

a lot of gambling. You know what, the gambling doesn't do very well with is storytelling, and the storytelling is at a loss right now. And the Victor wembn Yama story, the the Shay Gilgris Alexander story, Luka Zancic, uh Nikola Jokic. They haven't done a great job of telling those stories, partly because they're international. Like Shay Gilders, Alexander went to Kentucky for a year, but he's Canadian, you is Serbian and didn't even play. He was drafted and then stashed

for a year before he came to Denver. Doncic was this wonder kid that came to Dallas and was sensational from day one, but we didn't know who he was. Jan assigned Atkoupo, who's playing in the in the NBA Cup. He's the Greek freak and he has a Nike campaign around him. What a wonderful story he is. But it took years for us to really get familiarized with that product because a lot of these stars are international and they've invested in the sports gambling and I've profited off

of that too. Is that those decisions in my career, like I've made money off of you know, media partners that are investing in these these entities. So it's not like I'm totally clean from this, but in terms of storytelling and that where we find ourselves, I don't think there's that much buzz comparatively where we could be. I think a lot of it is that those like more

short term decisions business decisions rather than long term. And I could be totally wrong about this, but I think you're hitting on, you know, a lack of buzz for you know, Tuesday night's game, and it does bring to

the forefront. You know, why is that? And for all the reasons I laid out, it explains why, you know, the NBA does have at this point a marketing problem, which I always thought the NBA was the best marketed product and on Planet Earth, like no sports league markets the NBA coming off of Jordan and the NBA is amazing and all that. It just feels like there's a we're in between eras right now, or we're trying to find our footing.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and look, man, you're grown up.

Speaker 1

You know this, Like you followed the money to find the story and when the NBA was most compelling, the money hadn't you know, permeated its way through everything like players used to play because they needed to get paid, and coaches used to coach because they needed to get paid, you know, twice a month.

Speaker 2

And now the money is so ridiculous.

Speaker 1

And if you just follow the money, and then if you listen closely, you hear things occasionally where they do say as the kids say these days, the quiet part out loud. So two years ago, after Dallas was beaten in the playoffs, Jason Kidd takes the mic and says, what you guys don't get is we're millionaires cheering for other millionaires.

Speaker 2

And I just went, oh, dude.

Speaker 1

Like I know, Jason, I'm aware of that, but don't say it out loud. I honestly think there's a feel from general, the general sporting public that if you're in the NBA circle, you're fine just cashing your checks and you don't really give a rip about whether or not the fans watch or not, because you're getting your guaranteed money anyway. Kevin Durant last year set it out loud. You guys don't understand. We never talk about the fans.

We don't keep you guys in mind. So last thing here and then we'll move on to the more compelling stories. I honestly believe if we bottom line this, Jason Kidd said it out loud, these are millionaires cheering for other millionaires, looking from their ivory tower down to everybody else.

Speaker 2

That's what I believe.

Speaker 3

I've heard it from GM's executives around the league that are frustrated by the power that players have now both financially and politically, that they're untouchable. And is that the best thing for the league? That Lebron James last week and dude, the guy's turning forty, Like we're already playing on bar time in terms of like Lebron does he need to do more for the NBA, But as an example of where we're at, he just left in the

middle of the season. JJ Reddick doesn't even have an answer for where he went, what he's doing when he's coming back in the middle of the NBA season, right, I mean, Lebron James still the biggest star in the sport and can just leave for multiple games and no

one knows what's going on. And I think that speaks to, you know, the general lack of you know, I don't know if information is the right word or care, but I can certainly imagine people at the league office were not too pleased that he was gone for personal reasons and then came back and said he had to, you know, he had to get his foot right or whatever and get that taken care of. But no one knew, right, and JJ Reddick didn't know and couldn't say anything, and

so it's it's, I don't know. It just feels we're at this place where, you know, guaranteed contracts in football, right, non guaranteed contracts in the NBA just isn't a talking point with the players union. But you know, you look at the the percentage of games played by end stars, it dipped below seventy percent at one point this year. It's now above eighty six percent. Currently, at this moment, star players are playing, you know, eighty eighty five percent

of their games. But earlier this season it was dipping below seventy percent where stars were missing games. Thirty three percent of the forty nine players that had played in an All Star Game the previous three seasons. If we look at the top forty nine players in the league,

one out of every three were in street cluss. And that's just tough from a marketing standpoint, not just for the League, but like for fans and like, hey, I'm gonna go buy Lakers tickets when they come through Utah, But really, how much are you gonna pay if you don't even know if Lebron James is gonna be there?

And so I think that kind of brings it all home, is you know, if you have stars that are missing one out of every three games, and you're supposed to put down money to go attend these games, or clear out your calendar and go to an NBA game, or Hey, what are we going to watch tonight? Are we gonna watch industry Game of Thrones or the NBA game? Oh, I don't really know. Is Giannis playing tonight? I don't know.

Maybe we'll just watch Game of Thrones. Like that's where we're at, and it has to be you know, it's it's hard to turn around the Titanic, but I think there has to be a culture change or else, you know, it's gonna be it's gonna be tough for everyone to make this money at the next TV deal, which by the way, seventy five billion reasons why those stars and those executives are going to be just fine.

Speaker 1

Right, And that's always going to be their bottom line and human nature is if you have a guaranteed contract. Look, if I signed a deal where I knew I was getting twenty million dollars, no matter what I did on this show, I'd show up on a Wednesday and make fart noises for four hours. I'm not mad at the players. I understand the deal. It does dilute the product, and that's that's what sucks.

Speaker 2

But let's move on. And to your point, the compelling.

Speaker 1

Stories are what those of us will love pro basketball in the NBA want to hear. So I'm gonna ask Tom Haverstrow to stretch his creative mind and tell me a compelling story about the five and nineteen Utah Jazz.

Speaker 3

The compelling story is, unfortunately, another residue of the NBA's incentive system is that Utah Jazz have a fourteen percent chance at the number one overall pick. I mean it is. That's the way that the league has set it up, is that the worst teams have the incentive to continue to be poor so that they get more ping pong balls to get a guy like Victor wemben Yam or Cooper flag Ace Bailey, you name it. And it's not

always the number one guy. The Thunder have this dude Jalen Williams who was not even a top ten pick, who is looking like one of the best young players in the NBA, and Shay Gilgris Alexander also not a

top ten pick. So it's possible that you can still get an elite player outside the top five, but your chances fall off pretty dramatically, and Utah right now as it stands, it's just it's hard to build a winning culture when we know the incentive structure in the NBA as such that it's it pays to lose, and marketing, you know, it would make things so much more interesting if Lowry Markinen wasn't locked in, but he's locked in, and so you're kind of just building around Lowry marketing

and hoping that like they're able to fast track this bring in some real talent around him to take advantage of the fact that two years ago the dude was an All Star, starting in the All Star Game and averaging twenty five point game, and now after two years of being kind of in the bottom of the league, you're looking at a guy that is struggling to maintain that status. And I wish I had better news for you, but it does seem like Larry marketing at this point.

And you've talked about this before. Is he a one A on a championship team? I don't think though he's it one B or a C star player. Is he a third on an NBA, you know, championship team right now? It seems like the face of the franchise is probably in college basketball or international right now, because I don't know if it's marketing.

Speaker 2

Yeah, yeah, it's it's a rough scene.

Speaker 3

I tried to do something positive and ended up being way more dark than I intended.

Speaker 1

Well, like there's there's just no way to spin it, and you know, I get a lot of pushback.

Speaker 2

I had Zach on last week, Zach Harper, your buddy.

Speaker 1

He joins us every week, and I had somebody reach out after listening to that interview, you know, being a little bit surprised about how hard we are.

Speaker 2

On the team, and I'm like, dude, what do you want me to do?

Speaker 1

I mean, we have smart basketball fans here that have seen great college basketball for decades, and while the NBA team has never won a championship, more often than not, this is a market that's used to seeing a connected team that plays hard with precision. They're the worst team in the league. The Jazz are this year at turnovers per game. They're the worst team in the league at allowing points off of turnovers. They're the worst defensive team

in the league. They're the worst transition defensive team in the league. Indicate those are lazy things, those are habits, those are work hard things. Those are get back on defense. Don't be an idiot with the ball. And look, we could bottom line it and say this is all intentional. But to your point about covering basketball, it should be about the games. It should be about talking about what

we're seeing and the games. And if I watch the Jazz and I talk about what I'm seeing, all I'm seeing is some of the worst basketball we've ever had here. And I really feel Tom because you will. Hardy's had his option picked up both year four and year five, and I'm telling you when that hire came down, I talked to all of my NBA contacts and one said grand slam. Jeff Van Gundy on the show called them a rising star. Steve Kerr said something to that effect.

So my basketball knowledge says, a team that turns the ball over. A team that won't get back on defense, A team that doesn't play hard is poorly coached.

Speaker 2

But I can't go there with.

Speaker 1

Will because I just don't think he's had the pieces, and when he's had even average pieces, he's actually coached them up to when they were, you know, to a point where they were winning more games and people thought, so, I don't think this is a coaching issue, But Tom, this is a team that plays like it is poorly coached. Is it a roster issue, a coaching issue, a little bit of both.

Speaker 3

I think it's a top down issue in the sense that I mean, what do you expect the writing is on the wall with the direction of the franchise. They didn't they locked in marketing in of course, but there hasn't been an infusion of talent on this team, and so you expect Keyance George to be the starting point guard on a team that you know, like, I don't think he's ready for that yet. You point to Will Hardy as the coach and maybe that's his job is

to develop him. But I mean, there isn't Chris Paul on this team right now, you know, And okay, see Mark Dagnel, he had Chris Paul in h and he was able to put that team in the playoffs. And you're seeing that the San Antonio Spurs have Victor Weman Yama and Chris Paul on the team and they're probably going to the playoffs or they're they're trending that way with the way that those guys are playing right now.

And I just don't know if you can really expect a Michelin star meal when you don't get Michelin star ingredients. And uh, you know, do do we give Will Hardy credit for turning Lowry Markinen into an All Star or a player who was starting an All Star game? You know?

Like it? It cuts both ways in the sense that you can point to the team and that they're lasted defensively, and I will point out they are first in free throws in the league their free throw rate as a percentage of their field goal attempts, So there is something where they are not bottom. They're actually at the top, which is impressive. But that's certainly not going to put people in the seats that you get to the free throw line a lot. But there are there are little

things here and there. We talked about it last week John Collins is having a resurgent year, but they have

to defend much better. And the way that it is right now, just culturally, it's really hard to build a winning product when the incentive structure in the league is such that everyone knows the time that is, you know, if the odds were flipped and there was a different path for this team to acquire, you know, real franchise changing talent, maybe this isn't the conversation we're having, and maybe it is a matter of, like, let's go get

let's go get a Draymond Green for our team. Let's go get a Rudy Gobert for our team and keep him here for the long term because you know what, like he might be older or phasing out of his thirties or out of his twenties, but you know what, we want to keep that guy here long term and

not have to do a rebuild. But that's really what it comes down to, is the incentive structure is such in the NBA that it does help to add more ping pong balls long term, or at least it makes sense to the front office, And it's just tough marketing wise to do that.

Speaker 1

I so badly want Kevin got a couple of buddies still in the front office down there, and I so badly want to see if we can get a free throw campaign started, a marketing free throw advertising campaign started, because that's all I want now, Like, Hey, I was at the Sun's game on Friday. That building is not close to full, and it usually is, and it has been at times this year. It just wasn't Friday night.

And that's Kevin durand that's seven Booker. Half the stadium was occupied by the BYU basketball team and athletic department, so there was a ton of excitement in the building. But now all I want is, if you're wondering why you should roll to games, just know we're a top the league at free throw percentage.

Speaker 2

Come on down to watch the jazz.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean that's what puts people in the seat, is it?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Totally.

Speaker 2

It's just brutal. It is just brutal.

Speaker 1

All right, Before I say you loose, I'll just revisit because every time I go to prep for the show, and every time I you know, kind of look into the jazz stuff. There are all of these trade rumors out there and we don't know the deal with Danny. Honestly, I'm not even sure how connected Danny is. It feels like Xani's doing most of the league work. You reference Collins, it's only a good thing either at twenty seven you've stumbled into maybe a piece of this puzzle, or you

can move him and jettis him on. Like if you told me last year they were going to get a first round pick for John, I would have told you were crazy. And I still think that's a lot to ask for. But there's part of me that believes the team has built perfectly to lose a bunch and follow the salary cap rules because you.

Speaker 2

Got to pay players.

Speaker 1

So part of me wonders if they just sit back and do nothing, because they're actually on track to do what I think they're trying to accomplish, and that's maintaining their draft capital. But if you're an opposing GM, any of these Jazz Vets catching your eye right now, and what are you willing to give up?

Speaker 3

Yeah, it's not going to be a first round pick. Unfortunately for my guy John, who went to the great University in Winston Sale and Wake Forest University, who just let go of their head coach, Dave Clauston, which very very confusing. But anyway, John Collins, it's tough to see a market for him that warrants a first round pick

considering what we saw from Dennis Shruter. Dennis Shruder is going to the Golden State Warriors for second round picks and the Anthony Melton and so you know, that doesn't bode well for other players, like veteran players who are looking to or gms. I should say, who are trying

to move a veteran player? Because Dennis Shruter averaging eighteen points and six assists while having you know, some great shooting two way ball for the Brooklyn Nets, and he was you know, he didn't get a first round pick.

So it's gonna be tough to envision Sexton, John Collins, Jordan Clarkson getting much more than that, because I as good as John Collins has been, I think in terms of value across the league, he's probably in the same category as Dennis Shrewder and Dennis Shuter wasn't able to get a first round pick. So we'll see, but I don't I don't see a frothing market for John Collins after that trade.

Speaker 1

All right, Tom, Well appreciate the time, jazz basketball, free throws and such. But you know I'll keep watching pro basketball. I know you will too, my friend, have a great weekend.

Speaker 2

We'll chat too, all right, Bence, have a good one, all right.

Speaker 1

The great Tom Haberstrow, very busy guy, has a number of different podcasts, rights a substack called Tomdefinder dot Com, rights for Yahoo Sports as well, and is on the Blazers analytics team.

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