But let's do some more college football.
And I just never know what's going to happen when our next guest is on the show, but it's always entertaining. Dave bar two College Football Matrix. All right, Dave, where are you at? What are you doing?
Dude? I swear I'm sober for this show man.
All right, No, but for real, where are you right now?
No? I'm actually I'm sitting on my deck and right next to me is my bow because I just got done building a whole new arrow setup for archery season, and I'm sighting in my bow from twenty to sixty yards right now.
Okay, all right, fair enough, I'm going to dig deeper and ask for some fun off season stories. Where have your travels taken you during the college football off season?
Probably the best college football one in South Carolina? For a week. We have a new program for early player identification for athletics and just just finding kids either off the beaten path or before anybody else does, twelve thirteen, fourteen, fifteen year olds before they get to camp. And I kind of toured the state, rolling the whole thing out statewide. So really excited about the direction of that.
Very nice, so around these parts University of Utah football fans hopeful that last year was a moment in time and not the new normal for Utah football. What gives you the most confidence that year two in the Big Twelve will look better for Utah than year one?
Did? Dave all of it every day? I mean, you know, I still look. I know fans love recency bias, right, that's the biggest thing about being a fan of what happened last game, what happened last month, what happened last year. And there's probably a lot of people, you know, pushing the panic button, but you know, years like that happened, and I still go back to my position on where it was a year ago. It is one of the
most talented teams in the Big twelve. It is one of the best coach teams in the Big twelve, got one of the best head coaches in the Big twelve. None of that has changed. Kay, you had a bad year. I get it, and that's called college football. Stuff happens. But in my opinion, I don't think there's another team in college football that has the ability to bounce back from twenty twenty four as hard as Utah youth.
I know I ask you this every time you joined, but just for listeners that may not be familiar. One of the things you do that I've always enjoyed learning about is you ranked stats, You rank coaches, You rank coordinators. So Utah once again coach wit is back, Morgan Scalley coach and waiting defensive coordinator, but new offensive coordinator Jason Beck. How do you analyze and rank the current iteration of the Utah coaches?
Well? What we like his upside? Now, he hasn't been an offensive coordinator, hasn't He hasn't handled enough game to get a full OC grade relative to everybody else. But we have a really good trend on him, and as a young offensive coordinator, we liked the direction that he is going, so we're real positive about it. But at the same time, not a big sample size, so let's
not get too far over the skis. But I cannot say I don't dislike the higher I like the risk, and I think there's a lot of upside to what he brings to the table going forward.
He also brings a quarterback that this program badly needed, and Cam Rising will always be a legend around here for a couple of pac twelve championships, but the poor kid could not stay healthy.
Cam moves on.
He's now the offensive coordinator of his high school, so he'll be entering the coaching ranks. But what's the Dave bar two take on the new QB one here in Salt Lake Devin Dampier, Well, you know.
Something, what I would do with any quarterback it doesn't matter, is you know how many starts has he had and what did he you to elevate his team relative to expectations? Kind of like a coach with what has he done with the talent to elevate the team beyond what he recruited? So I guess I would ask the question of anybody you know with the new quarterback, how many starts and did he elevate the team beyond what people expected out
of him? And if the answer is positive, then I don't know how you not be positive about what he brings to Utah.
The dynamic of moving up in competition.
Whereas New Mexico Mound West Conference School and now Devin dan Pier is playing in the Big Twelve. Certainly plenty of examples, namely cam Ward recently number one overall pick of players who've been able to make that jump and do it at a.
Very high level.
I don't know if you have data for this, but when it comes to you know, a group of five quarterbacks making the move into what now is the P four? What sort of insights you have there?
Nothing really other than like I said, is did they elevate where they're at before? Look look at Kim Wore. Did he elevate incarnate Word yep? Did he elevate Washington State? Yep? Did he elevate Miami? Oh my gosh. Yes, he made a guy with almost no play going experience in Shannon look awesome. Right, you know, look at Pavia, New Mexico State to Vanderbilt. Boom elevated in New Mexico State. Now
he's elevating Vanderbilt. So while you can say people would like to say, well, it's really hard to make that job, I just go with kind of like what I do with coaching. If you're good, you stay good no matter where you're at. You know what, would Morgan Scally be a good DC at any any place in the country. Yeah, right, he can go to Alabama, he's gonna be really good. Good to New Mexico's gonna be really good. So, you know,
the new Mexico offense, everything was solid down there. He certainly won above expectation, and so my take would be I expect him to win above expectations as at Utah.
As well Morgan.
As you know, Dave is the coach and waiting, and there are more than a few people that believe that transition will happen at the end of next season. I don't know, you know, when it comes to coach wit, I've always said, as long as he's under contract, he's
the coach. And like when he decided to come back this year, there was a press release, there was a very simple statement, and I just wasn't surprised based off of the disappointment of a year ago, and Kyle was very honest during Big twelve media days that that disappointment did color the context of his decision making process. But I know you also analyzed, you know, coordinators in addition to head coaches. So shouldn't the transition happen next year?
What are your thoughts on the potential of Kyle stepping down and Morgan sliding over a seat?
What do you think that looks like?
Well, I think a lot of it depends on on two things in particular. Certainly the culture continuity, the coaching continuity is going to be there, but I think it depends on how good the offenses this year. Does Morgan have to make a change this year or when he comes in and who's he bringing in as a defensive coordinator?
Is he going to call the players for the first couple of years and take less risk or is he going to go next man up promote somebody behind him, or is he going to bring a DC in brand new altogether. So there's a lot of pieces in terms of that puzzle and answering that question. I think it really is going to revolve around how much staffing Morgan has to do and how much staffing he's willing to do when that time comes.
So ultimately, last year, the Big Twelve preseason media poll proved, you know, that none of us know anything as far as what we're talking about. It was wild the way it was flipped up upside down. And we didn't do a preseason media poll in the Big Twelve this year, which is probably the right thing to do, so we all don't look like morons. But in addition to Utah, who you like who else in the Big twelve do you think will have a chance to be standing at the end.
I think you got to go with your best talent and your best coaching, right, I mean, your best talent and your best coaching is still Utah, really good head coach still Kansas State. I know everybody loves Arizona State, and I love Arizona State simply because I think Sam Levitt is just an amazing quarterback. You know, because if you look at their offensive coordinator Arroyo, when he doesn't have an awesome NFL quarterback justin Herbert, Oregon, he is
a bad, bad offensive coordinator. So I think one of the easiest measuring sticks of teams regressing and progressing is looked at their recruiting levels, and so I think Arizona State, I think Colorado. Both those teams last year played way above their expectations. So I think we're going to see some regression there. I think you're going to see some progression in Utah. I think it's going to be Kansas State.
And I'm not buying all the excitement with Oklahoma State, because yeah, Gundhy clean house, but he brought a bunch to average fossils into that thing, and I just don't think it's gonna work that good.
I would imagine BYU outshot expectations a year ago by a long shot, and even by their own admission. You know, we had their athletic director on the show during Big twelve media days, Brian Santiago, and I was surprised that he actually admitted because BYU fans don't love to admit when they get great luck. He said, the ball bounced our way all year long, and they they're breaking a new quarterback. Jake Rhet's laugh is now tulane. We don't know who the starter is going to be. If I'm
recalling correctly, I think you like Kilanie. They've got Aaron Rodgers as their offensive coordinator, Jay Hill.
Now year three is their DC.
What are your expectations for the BYU Cougars this year.
I do expect a little regression, but Colannie has been a plus coach effect for his entire career about a game and a half, so I think BYU is still going to perform above expectations, but I don't think it is going to be as a ceiling as high as it was last year. I think there just has to be some regression in regards to that, but still great football coaching. Actually, the whole state of Utah, between Utah and BYU, even Utah State, now there is really good
coaching there. But I do believe and feel that BYU is due for a game or two regression in twenty twenty five.
How how do you think the QB storyline will affect them? I mean, Jake was eleventh in the Big Twelve last year in QBR. They won a lot of games, again based off of a lot of lucky bounces and some really really stout play on the defensive side of the football. They return a lot of players on defense, They've got a stacked running back room and a lot of good wide receivers. But whoever takes the snap against Portland State opening Day will be playing quarterback for BYU for.
The first time. How do you think that's going to affect him.
It's got to affect him, right, I mean, in less they get lucky, you know how it is. You know in college football, sometimes you just find that diamond in the row and they get coached well and they're a great player, you know, But typically kids that do great in their first year in college elevated their high school team, right, you know, in terms of quarterback effect, we just talked about the guy transfer him with back from New Mexico. So whoever's taking the ball at BYU, what did he
do for his team in terms of elevating it. That's what I'd be looking at. But you know, yeah, the players are there. It is really hard, though, to have consistency, I feel in the Big twelve, especially at a very high level. The talent's very balanced, the coaching is very balanced and very good. I just think it's going to be difficult to repeat and put themselves in this position where they were last year in terms of playing for a playoff spot in November.
Always a little tongue in cheek about the coach's poll that's released that was released on Monday. Ultimately, we've had a couple of college football guests on the show since the release, and it seems to be a consensus that most, if not all coaches don't even.
Fill out the thing.
It's delegated to an SID or maybe even below that. How much stock, if any, Dave do you put in the coaches poll that was released on Monday.
I don't put anything into any of them. It's all for entertainment.
That's it.
All of it's for entertainment. I was laughing when your commissioner big beels like, we're not doing a media poll because it adversely affected our teams. No, your scoring efficiency adversely affected your teams. That's what it was. It wasn't that you know, you weren't good at the beginning. Again, that's a selection bias that fans have. None of these poles have any effect. Nobody listening right now can show me a correlation year over year to playoff committee behavior
and preseason polls. It doesn't exist. They used the same formula for ranking teams today as they did ten years ago, and nothing, whether it's coaches polls or anything else, affects that. It's just a wives tale that people like to talk about, and I don't believe in it for a second. Just enjoy the rankings if your.
Teams are there, well said.
Now, having said that, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame, top five according to your model and your knowledge, just generally speaking, best teams in college football this year.
Oh geez man, this is going to be the This is going to be might be the best year of my life. In following college football. I have no idea. I really don't. I really don't. So last year, the five teams that checked off all the boxes to win the national title. None of this blue chip ratio craft where there's seventeen to twenty teams that could be competing. That's all a bunch of knockoff bs is what it is. Last year that was five. It was Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia,
Notre Dame in Texas. Those were the only competitors. And in the last fifteen years it has always been three to five teams, no more, no less. This year there's eight. I throw out LSU, not even considering LSU, and I throw out Ohio State not even considering them at all. But the other top ten recruiters that are out there, look, they were all good last year. They all have good staffs.
But everybody has a whole Georgia has a new quarterback, Alabama has a new quarterback, Texas has a new quarterback. You know, you go down the list. Penn State's got a new defensive coordinator and they don't recruit in the top ten. And Jim Nole's defense is tough, and whoever wins it is going to be probably the least talented
champion we've had in the last twenty five years. But I think the crop of teams that are competing this year is bigger than it's ever been, and I'm excited to see it play out.
We follow up the battle Ohio State.
You're the first person I have heard say what you just said about them. It feels like a lot of people still believe that they have a shot to.
Win the whole thing. Why are you down on the Buckeyes.
Oh, I'm not down on them, and certainly they have a shot win the whole thing. They get to play a schedule and they're a top ten recruiter. But look, okay, they got a new quarterback never played before, right, They got a new DC who's never been in DC at the collegiate level, and they got a new offensive coordinator that has the same amount of play calling experience as you and me. Now, I know Ryan Day is right there to hold Brian Hartline's hand, But teams with a
inexperienced coordinator offense or defense don't win national titles. They haven't, right, I don't think there's one in twenty five years where you've got a brand new OC or brand new DC that has won a national title. So do I think Ohio State still has a chance to repeat? Sure, but I put them in the second tier. It wouldn't surprise me, but they would still be a pretty big anomaly compared to the rest of the teams out there in the last twenty five national champions.
Do you still believe we are headed?
You know, this is a topic we talk about around here all the time because the Big Twin is a fine place to land for now, it is, and if your BYU, if you're Utah, you appreciate the fact that you're n a P four conference, but there is this storyline narrative that permeates, you know, kind of behind the scenes about what this sport is going to look like eventually. Do you still kind of believe we're headed towards this
pro model with two conferences? If it's the SEC in the Big ten taking some of the leftovers from some of the other conferences, or does it feel like things have calmed down at least for the moment.
Answer a question with a question, do you think America is still full of greed and will sell tradition for a dollar at any cost?
Let me do some quick math.
Yes I do, yeah, yeah, so yeah, I think this is still heading towards this totally sucks. I hate it, I really do. You know, as great as this country is, tradition is for sale. Everything is to the highest bidder. You know, when I hear talks about private equity owning college football programs, about that private equity owning college football programs, and I thought that was a bunch of I thought it was nuts years ago. And now, oh, look at
the articles. Oh here's here's school valuations coming out that's not by accident. Right, So imagine Utah or Oregon or USC or Ohio State now being owned by private equity. Vomit. We already have the NFL where there's no upsets, there's no tradition, nobody cares about their well, they care about their teams, but it's just a bunch of teams that get into the playoffs. And I just we don't need
another homogenous football league. But boy, does it feel like college football is just absorbing the greed and going right down that same path tradition and everything else aside.
Seems like the topic of collective bargaining and players unionizing as a lightning rod and it depends on what side you're on there. For me, Dave, I just like you, I don't love the direction, but I'm also a grown up and I understand what capitalism means and when NIL
became a reality and transfer portal became a reality. I come from a background of pro sports, and so for me, if you want to solve some of these issues, namely keeping kids on campus for at least a couple of years, or you know, bringing some sort of uniformity and what you can pay them, I do believe that the best route is to allow players to unionize and collectively bargain with whatever the powers that be that are running the sport is, and that changes from day to day.
Do you think we're headed in that direction? Do you think it's the right thing?
Man? Two different answers. I don't know what the right thing is because everything changes so quick. Nobody's happy with, well, what happened last year. It's just an instant oatmeal drive group, fast food society, and we don't take time to really take a break to think about long term occasions to feel like so. But to answer your question about collective bargaining, understanding laws and rules and so forth, of how it's all laid out. To me, it almost seems like it's inevitable.
But again, how that's put together, what that looks like, When that's going to happen. I don't know when, but every single week, every single month, every single year, it just feels like the tradition and everything that we had in our sport, you know, players being around for four or five years and identifying with a school, it just seems to be whittled away. And I think part of it, my emotion and attachment to it, gets whittled the way along with it.
Yeah, and I don't think you're alone there before you say you lose, you know, again along the lines of just accepting what reality is. If the Big ten wants four auto bids, and I know it's the SEC has kind of backed off that stance a little bit. But if the SEC and the Big ten want four auto bids for an expanded sixteen team CFP, they're going to get it, aren't they.
If that's if that's the hill they're going to die on.
Yeah, Well, they got the goals, they make the rules, right, they carry the big stick. Yeah, I guess they can try to die on that hill. That's fine, and you and I both know one year it'll work out, two or three other years it'll look stupid. But I don't blame them trying to leverage their position to ensure as many teams are in this playoffs, no matter how many teams are in there as possible. Can't blame them for that. And if that's the direction they ultimately want to go,
that's fine. You know, I don't know what any of us can do about that in terms of changing that outcome or their demands for automatic bids.
Last thing, the twelve teams this year? Do you think the Big twelve can get two in?
No? Sure, sure, you know it just it just depends on how it plays out. Again, the ball's got to bounce, right, you know. I mean, is it hard to conceive to twelve and oh teams in the Big twelve title game? Sure it is. You know. Is it hard to conceive two teams that are both twelve and one that can get in the playoffs? Yeah it is, But it's possible, not probable, because the talent and coaching balance in the Big twelve is really really tough. But you know, look
what Arizona State did last year. So I think that's one of the hopes that we all have in college football come September one or week zero or whatever it is, is what is going to happen is a mystery to us, and I think knowing that any outcome is plausible, I think that's what makes college football still exciting.
Dave, Thank you, sir for the time, always entertaining. Best of luck and whatever incredibly exciting endeavors you have coming your way over the next few weeks, and we'll get you back on again soon.
Okay, you know where I'm at. Don't be a stranger, buddy.
Yes, sir, Dave Bartwo college Football Matrix. Get them on Twitter at CFB matrixes where you found them, bind them.
Excuse me some good stuff there.
With the coaching dynamics in State, one of the things Dave has always done that I've found very interesting is he does deep dives on coaching staffs.
He analyzes his.
Head coaches, coordinators, and then you know, juxtaposed that with the talent you have coming back to try to understand the landscape what college football is going to look like, and he nailed it. When it comes to these preseason polls, it's fodder for conversation and if your team is ranked, you enjoy it. If your team is not, you think it's a bunch of bs. We'll see what the AP brings coming up on Monday, after the Coach's Poll was released yesterday