Let's do a little football with Aaron Schatz on the program on a Wednesday afternoon.
Aaron, Happy Wednesday. How are you sir?
Hey, I'm good. How are you doing.
I'm doing well. Appreciate your time.
So whenever I interview somebody for the first time, and I've been doing this for twenty years now, I've never had an opportunity to interview you, I just like to get to know them a little bit. I was reviewing your socials after Porter in in for you. You were going to join us, So let's get to know you a little bit. Tell us about yourself. How'd you get into this gig? And what are you doing now?
Yeah? I have been doing football analytics for over twenty years. I founded a site called Football Outsiders, which no longer exists. Now I work for FPN Fantasy and I'm known for my DVOA stats, which look at every single play and adjust them based on a league average baseline of situation and opponents to analyze where teams have strengths and weaknesses going into the Super Bowl.
Translation, you're very smart and the rest of us just watch football. So how'd you get into it? Are you just a lifelong football fan, just fascinated by the game.
Yeah, basically, just had some questions and nobody was answering them. And there were all these baseball analytics sites and nobody was doing football, and so I was like, I'm going to try to answer some questions. And so I put together a database of the two thousand and two season and started creating stats. Now I have a database with every season from nineteen seventy eight to twenty twenty four.
Wow, well, very very nuanced. Well you should know I'm a New York Football Jets fan. So I'm a long suffering NFL fan. I do not want to know what your data says about the Jets at all, but I am wondering what your take is on the new head coach, the new hire and what they do with their starting quarterback, and if you can give me any hope for being a Jets fan moving forward.
I mean, I like Glenn as a higher I think people like him as a sort of leader of men. I think what he was able to do to motivate the Detroit defense despite all of the injuries that they had was very good. I think that Rogers is a locker room cancer, and that he's not very good anymore as a quarterback, Like he's a very average quarterback, and you can get average quarterback performance without that kind of personality. So I would move on.
Well said, I am with you. I am with you.
All right, let's before we get to your thoughts on the Super Bowl, let's dig into the conference championship games. And I actually want to start with a question about the Commanders and Jaden Daniels, who he had out here in the Pac twelve foot print before he transferred to LSU. He was a ASU kid and I remember watching him play and thinking he was pretty exciting. But I never thought he would be doing this at the doorstep of history.
But the Eagles smoke him.
But before we get to the game, what do your numbers say about just how special he was year one and how Commanders fans should feel about their future with him under center.
We have it as the fourth most valuable rookie quarterback season since nineteen seventy eight, and I think Washington fans should feel very good about him going forward. Now, what you can't do is look at what he did this year and go, well, everybody's better in their second year, so he's going to just be better next year, because the fact is, most quarterbacks who are this good as rookies don't get better in their second year because they're
already this good. Like there are exceptions like Marino, but he's an exception. However, I think you can pretty much feel that Daniels is going to be this good, and this good is pretty good, definitely a top eight quarterback in the league this year, and that's pretty darn good for us.
All Right.
Actually, you know what, let's uh, let's let's move over to the Eagles specifically before we talk about kind of the matchup, and I would be curious to get your take as a guy that digs into the data, because for me, all year long, I seem to have here, you know, heard, watched read a lot of people that were very skeptical about Philly's ability to do anything special this year, And without knowing your data, I just have adamantly disagreed based off talent at their disposal, it seems
like there's a lot of questions about their head coach, seems like there's a lot of questions about their quarterback. But here they are back in the Super Bowl. What's your data say about this Eagles team?
Well, I think that the skepticism was warranted because of the way that team collapsed last year. I mean, despite having all of the talent, they were not as good as their record, and then over the last few games completely collapsed. So the skepticism was warranted. But since October they've been fantastic. They're the best defense in the league this year. That's the big thing has been the step
forward on defense. I know people want to talk about Saquon Barkley all the time, but the big thing has been a huge step forward with a defense that has stars on every level and guys who had huge breakout seasons on every level of the defense, with Vic Fanzio running the show. That's the reason they're in the Super Bowl.
So how did they dismantle the Commanders the way they did? I thought Philly would win, but I thought it would be close.
Vegas agreed. I think the line was six.
What stood out most to you about the way they just blew their brakes off.
The Commanders had a bad defense. Like going into that game, of the four teams that were left, there was one unit that was bad, and that was the Washington defense. And that's what we saw. The Washington defense is not good, and so the Eagles scored a bunch of points on them. They didn't. You know, their defense did a good job of keeping Jaden Daniels down. Obviously, stripping the ball three times is pretty good, you know, right, the Washington fumbled
three times. But the big issue is just that the Washington defense was just stock good. Jaden Daniels is good, the defense not so much.
So what's your data say on Jalen Hurts as a quarterback?
You know, he's been about like twelfth to thirteenth in passing this year. He's a little bit better than that when you consider his running ability. But the passing attack for Eagles, if people feel like it's not as powerful as other passing attacks in the league, they're right. Despite the presence of AJ Brown and Davonte Smith and Dallas Goddard, despite the offensive line, you know, blocks well, it's not a great passing attack. What they have is a very
good running attack. And like I said, the best defense in the life.
Is there a better one two wide receiver punch than AJ Brown and DeVante Smith and pro football.
Jefferson and Addison is pretty good. Chason Higgins is pretty good, but that's about to be broken up because Higgins is likely to go elsewhere. It's if you say that that's the best tandem in the league. You know, I think that you've got a pretty good case.
You think Higgins ends up in Washington, Maybe give Jaden another weapon, you know, I think that that's possible.
But I would be surprised if it's a team with a lot of cap room that wants to sign him. There's a lot of talk about New England trying to blow everybody else out of the water with big offer.
Okay, moving over to the AFC Championship game, let me start with I mean, I know what we're all supposed to do as media members, Josh Allen will never win the Big One because Patrick Mahomes is Michael Jordan. But what's your take on the Bills side of this? You know, I'm a child of the Northeast that lived there in the nineties. I very much remember those four Super Bowl appearances. Just heartbreaking for a very passionate fan base and a
very great football market. So what do the numbers say about the Bills this year and your projection on Josh Allen the rest.
Of the way.
I mean, they were a very good team this year. They were a better team this year than Kansas City during the regular season. Not in this game, though. Kansas City was a much better team in this game because there were five fumbles in this game. And something you have to understand is that fumble recovery is essentially random, and Buffalo recovered all five fumbles, which is ridiculous. That is very lucky. And without that, Kansas City wins by
a larger amount. I understand why it's so hardbreaks right, all the games have been closed as far as the score. They can't came to get past Kansas City. That's how Indianapolis fans felt. And then two thousand and six came and they had a big comeback and they finally beat the Patriots. The day will come where somebody beats the Chiefs. The Chiefs are not going to win the next twelve straight Super Bowls. This is not the Celtics of the sixties. Somebody will beat them. It will happen, in fact, to
somebody who beats them. Mit beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
And we will get there.
But before we do, since we're talking, Josh Allen Equal Time says, I'm supposed to as a member of the media, ask you about Lamar Jackson, who every time he loses his game in the postseason has to deal with a media news cycle of yeah, this dude will never get it done either. What do your numbers say about Lamar and do you think he'll eventually break through?
I mean, Lamar had an absolutely fantastic season. He had one of the ten best quarterback seasons that I've ever measured this year, and he played better in the playoffs than he has in the past. But he went up
against a very good Bills team. The Ravens and Bills were both really good teams, and the fact that the Ravens lost by two points on the road to another good team is that's not a face plant, right, Like, sometimes if you're a really good team and to play another really good team and you're in their building, you're gonna lose by two points. It doesn't mean that you suck. It doesn't mean you can't win the big one again.
History in all sports is filled with players who quote unquote could not win in the playoffs until the year they actually did. Whether it's Barry Bonds or Jason Tatum or Peyton Manning or a number of players.
So we do have a couple of local angles Aaron that I want to kick the tires on, and I'll just ask you this, what's fair to say about that final play fourth and five where Josh somehow was able to get the pass off and our guy Dalton King cad former you just was not able to make the play. I think it's really easy to knock on him, but every replay indicates he had to change course. It was going to be a difficult catch. Now, I'm sure Dalton
himself will say I gotta get that done. But what's fair to say about that final play.
I don't consider it a drop. I'm one of the people who feels like that's a difficult play. He had to switch his inertia. He's going one direction, the ball is in the other direction. He has to switch his inertia and then dive to catch it. It would have been great if he had caught it. That would have been great. But I don't think that you can expect that he's going to catch that ball. That's a difficult catch to me.
We also had a local boy get his first career start in a postseason well period, but it was a playoff game, as Cole Bishop stepped in for Taylor Rapp. How do you analyze the way Cole handled himself in a very, very pressure pack situation.
I mean, I know you into that game feeling like the injuries in the secondary were going to be a problem for the Bills. You didn't come out of it thinking Cole Bishop was the problem. You came out of it thinking kyer Elam was the problem. So I think Bishop did pretty well for his first NFL start. Kyer elm not so much good.
Good to hear that. Cole's great kid man front of the show, so we cheer for him.
All right.
It's easy for me to say as an observer that the Chiefs have built this incredible dynasty and have been able to adjust and adapt, and they win in a myriad of different ways, and a lot of it now. Steve's back Nolan defensively, and of course Patrick Mahomes when he first on the scene was Tyreek killing his prime. Travis kelseen his prime and it was super fun to watch. And maybe it's not as esthetically pleasing, but they're still winning at.
An incredibly high clip. How have they been able to do this?
From your prism and how have they adjusted and changed with the times?
I mean, some of it is a little bit of luck. I mean, going fifteen into this year was a little bit of luck. But they do turn it on. They do play better in the playoffs. Spagnolo is a great play designer on defense. I mean, if you look at what he did to the Patriots when he was with the Giants combined with what he's done to teams when he's with the Chiefs, he's probably going to eventually be in the Hall of Fame as an assistant coach. Mahomes
So here's the thing. Most quarterbacks, when you are in situations where passes are expected, play worse, which makes sense because if the defense knows the pass is coming, they're going to play against the pass. You're not going to be as good. Mahomes is better in those situations than he is usually, which is kind of crazy. Like if you know a pass is coming, you still can't stop him. And that's what's special about it.
All Right, let's move over to this matchup. It's Philly.
It's KC Super Bowl fifty nine rematch the Super Bowl fifty seven. Casey a slight favorite. Let's start here. Okay, let's do it a couple of different ways. Philadelphia wins Super Bowl fifty nine if what.
If their defense clamps down? I mean, this is more than anything else. This is a battle of two defensive coordinators scheming against the other offense. Vic Fangio for Philadelphia and Steve s Pagnolo for Kansas City. And if Fangio's defense can somewhat limit Patrick Mahomes, and if Saquon Barkley can break a couple of those explosive runs against a Kansas City defense that does not give up a lot of explosive runs, then Philadelphia will take this home.
In Kansas City. He gets the three peet and makes history. If what.
If Spagnolo and his bliss packages get to Hurts and the defense, the run defense keeps Barkley somewhat contained and mahomess.
Mahomes, what do you think aaron is going to happened? What's your prediction for Super Bowl fifty nine.
I think it's going to be close. I think the Eagles have a better shot at this than a lot of people give them credit for. But I would pick the Chiefs. And here's what worries me. The offensive line injuries for the Eagles. The Chiefs are at their healthiest that they've been all year, while we don't know the status of Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgen's for the Eagles. And if one of those players is out and some you know, Tylers Dean has to go up against Chris
Jones in the middle of that Kansas City defense. That is a problem. And that is enough to tip my pick to the Chiefs.
All right, before I say you loose just out of curiosity, you're a smart guy. Wanted to kick the tires on a couple of storylines Ben Johnson, namely leaving Detroit to take over Chicago. I reference we well, the PAC twelve is dead, but for a while pack twelve footprint.
So we saw Caleb up close.
You taught some good success against Caleb Williams when he was at Southern cal. So how do you analyze Caleb Williams rookie quarterback now his rookie year behind him? And what do you think Ben Johnson can do as far as taking over that job.
Here's the problem. We know Ben Johnson is a great schemer and designer of plays, but can he fix the clock in Caleb Williams's head. Caleb Williams's biggest problem is taking sacks by holding onto the ball too long, and if Ben Johnson can't fix that, then Caleb Williams is going to be a subpark quarterback.
All right, let me kick the tires with you when you know we're not an NFL market, but due to our geographical location, we do have a lot of Denver Bronco fans here. And Bonix is another player who he had here playing Utah number of different times was up on the sidelines watching.
Him play the utes, and he picked him apart.
I will admit to being skeptical when Sean Payton landed on Bononicks as his choice, but they win ten games his first year and he looked pretty good.
What do you think the future holds in Denver?
I also will admit to being skeptical of bo Nicks, especially early on in the season when it seemed like every passing through was behind the line of scrimmage. But they eventually develop a deep passing game and he had a pretty good rookie season. So I think that things look good for bow Nicks going forward. I think things
look good for Denver going forward. It's possible that all the first round quarterbacks from that draft are going to be at least average, which is kind of amazing because you saw the spark with break May and Caleb Williams. You saw what they could become. Panix was good in the three games, right, Jayden Daniels was awesome, Nicks was very good. We don't know yet what we'll see from McCarthy, but that's a pretty good quarterback class.
All right.
Before I say you loose there because of their move now via their their location in Las Vegas, the Raiders are the closest team to us here in Salt Lake City.
Pete Carroll to the Raiders, how do you think this works out? What do they need?
Dad?
To give Pete a chance here?
The first thing I would say is that when I'm seventy four, I would like to be tired. I don't understand why he came back. My god, dude, like rest enjoy the rest of your life. But I mean, who's the quarterback? The problem here is who's the quarterback. It's not probably Aiden O'Connell, it's not probably Gardner Minshew. Are they going to bring in Russell Wilson because he's familiar
with Carol? You're just gonna get average quarterback play with the same strengths and weaknesses that Wilson showed for Pittsburgh. It seems like such a hopeless organization in a division where the Chargers and Broncos look much better now and the Chiefs of the Chiefs. It's not the best organization to be a fan of right now.
I would imagine Aaron, your work is beneficial for folks that might want to, I don't know, maybe play a little daily fantasy or have a little fun with the Super Bowl.
Is that fair to say?
Absolutely? Not only my stuff the DVOA ratings at FTN Fantasy, but we have DFS optimizers and all kinds of picks stuff in other sports too. People should check out ftnfantasy dot com.
Okay, thank you, sir for your time. It's been illuminating. Love to have you back on soon.
Absolutely, man and everybody enjoyed the.
Super Bowl, all right.
Aaron Schatz from FTN Fantasy, he has I'm looking at his socials. He has a bevy of options at your disposal if you're interested in getting involved with some daily fantasy for the Super Bowl, or if you just want to learn more about the game. That the links to all of his work up on his Twitter page. It's at a Shatz NFL is where you find him. He
says he specializes in nuanced ice cold NFL takes. You can tell that he does a lot of work, so check out his social super Bowl fifty nine less than two weeks away Philly and Kansas City.
So excited for that one.